CRS INSIGHT
Implications of Iranian Elections
March 4, 2016 (IN10457)
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Related Author
Kenneth Katzman
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Kenneth Katzman, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs (kkatzman@crs.loc.gov, 7-7612)
Summary
Summary:
An apparent strong showing by supporters of President Hassan Rouhani might reflect broad support for the nuclear
agreement between Iran and major international powers ("Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action," JCPOA) that is
providing significant sanctions relief. Iran's core national security goals are unlikely to change, and with runoffs still to
come, any possible easing of social and political restrictions is difficult to predict. The results could affect the choice of
the next Supreme Leader.
Election Processes
Election Processes
On February 26, 2016, Iran held elections for the 290-seat MajlesMajles (parliament) and for the 88-seat body called the
"Assembly of Experts," which is empowered to choose a successor to the Supreme Leader and rewrite Iran's
constitution. The MajlesOn April 29, a runoff election was held for the 68 Majles seats not decided in the first round (no candidate having received 25%). The Majles plays a significant role on budgetary and economic decisions, but less of a role on issues of
national security.
The Majles
The Majles seats are allocated to 207 geographic constituencies, meaning that some constituencies send more than one
person to the body. Tehran, for example, sends 30 members to the MajlesMajles. The Assembly of Experts seats are divided
among Iran's 31 provinces. The largest constituency in both elections is Tehran, which sends 30 persons to the Majles
Majles and 16 to the Assembly of Experts. Five MajlesMajles seats are reserved for members of the "recognized" religious minorities
(Zoroastrians, Jews, and several Christian denominations). Political parties are generally banned, and factions compete
as loose alliances of candidates based on ideology.
For the MajlesMajles: The Interior Ministry and cleric-controlled vetting body called the Council of Guardians (CoG)
approved 6,200 candidates to compete for the 290 seats, including 586 female candidates—invalidating the candidacies
of about 6,000 applicants. The disqualifications included the overwhelminga majority of "reformist" candidates:
—proponents of substantial easing of restrictions on freedom of expression and political activism.
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Former President Mohammad Khatemi and another leading reformist, Mohammad Reza Aref, allied for the election
with propro-Rouhani "moderate-conservatives" into a combined "List of Hope" slate in an effort to reduce the percentage
of "hardliners" (who call themselves "Principalists") in the body. The Principalists express loyalty to Supreme Leader
Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamene'i and some also support ex-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. For seats where no
candidate received at least 25% of the vote, runoff elections will take place in early April.
For the Assembly of Experts: Candidates mustwere required to be broadly recognized by the Shiite clergy as able to interpret Islamic
law, meaning that only Shiite clerics populate the bodyqualify. Of the 800 candidates who applied, the CoG approved only 161
to run, rendering some races uncontested. One candidate whose disqualification provoked substantial debate was
Hassan Khomeini, the 36-year-old grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini and the first member of the Khomeini family to
enter Iranian electoral politics. Critics of the exclusion attributed the CoG's decision to Khomeini's advocacy of
moderate positions.
Results
The turnout candidates, rendering some races uncontested.
Results
The turnout in the first round was about 62% of Iran's 55 million eligible voters, similar to recent elections. The number of MajlesMajles seats
decided was 222, leaving 68 to be decided in the runoff, and meaning that the exact composition of the new Majles will
depend on the runoff outcome. Even though the Interior Ministry has not released finalized results, available
information indicates that, no matter the runoff results, Principalists will control far fewer than the nearly 200 seats they
hold in the current Majles. The Principalists and the pro-Rouhani List of Hope appear to have each won between 80 and
90 seats in the initial round, and the remaining seats were won by "independents" not aligned with any faction.
TheApril 29 runoff. All observers agree that the Principalists will enter the new Majles with far fewer than the nearly 200 seats they hold in the current Majles. The pro-Rouhani List of Hope won about 90 seats in the initial round, and another 30+ in the runoff. Sources estimate that pro-Rouhani representatives will have 122-135 seats in the incoming Majles—a plurality but not an outright majority. The Principalists reportedly will have about 100-120 seats, and independents not aligned with any faction will hold the remainder. All figures are approximate because of the absence of party affiliations and the presence of some candidates on multiple informal slates. No runoff was held in Tehran because the pro-Rouhani coalition—and mostly reformists within that coalition—swept all 30 seats from Tehran constituency.
Experts agree thatin the first round.
Based on the results, the new Majles willis likely to be far more supportive of Rouhani's policies than is the current one, but Majles
voting patterns are one. However, any Majles decision is often determined by the issue, Khamene'i's views, regional circumstances, and many other factors.
Moreover, differences Differences within the pro-Rouhani coalition will likely emerge after the new MajlesMajles is seated. Reformists
; reformists emphasize the lifting of social restrictions, whereas moderate-conservatives—and Rouhani himself—tend to emphasize
emphasize economic reform. Rouhani has, to date, resisted confronting judiciary hardliners on issues such as releasing reformist
figures imprisoned for leading the 2009 uprising in Iran.
, although he has campaigned for the removal of a government-directed ban on media coverage of former President Khatemi.
The Assembly of Experts election could prove to be highly consequential if Khamene'i passes away during its coming
eight-year term. Moderate-Moderate-conservatives won more than half the seats overall, and pro-Rouhani candidates won all but
its seats, including all but one of Tehran's 16 seats in the body. Two prominent hardliners—current Assembly chairman Ayatollah Mohammad
Yazdi and Ahmadinejad mentor Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi—both lost their Assembly seats. The only
hardliner to win a seat from Tehran Province was the current CoG chairman, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, who placed last
(16th place). The top vote-getter in Tehran was ex-President Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, Rouhani's mentor, a result
that could boost Rafsanjani's chances of returning to the Assembly chairmanship he lost in 2011 after running afoul of
hardliners. Rouhani placed third in that province.
Implications
The composition of the Majles will not be fully known until the April runoff, making further implications difficult to
assess. Rouhani would appear to be favored for reelection in 2017
Implications
The election results suggest that Rouhani's policies are popular, and that his prospects for reelection in 2017 are good. The loss of key hardline Assembly of Experts
members could improve the chances for a relatively more moderate leader to replace Khamene'i, should the 76-year-old
leader pass away in the next eight years. The elections might not substantively alter Iran's core regional policies, which
are set primarily by Khamene'i and implemented by the hardlinethe hardliner Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC); likewise, the issue of
basic freedoms, which is. The issue of social and political freedoms remains strongly influenced by hardliners in the judiciary. Still, the elections appear to have strongly
endorsed the JCPOA and resulting sanctions relief—the centerpiece of Rouhani's presidency to date. Rouhani might
feel emboldened—and might embolden Rouhani to push forward on economic reform, in particular. He might try to curb the economic influence of parastatal
corporations, bonyadsbonyads (cleric-controlled foundations), and conglomerates (some of which are at least partially
controlled by the IRGC) that have marginalized traditional trading families and young entrepreneurs. Opening the
government-linked conglomerates that have marginalized the traditional private sector. Opening the economy is crucial to attracting the foreign investment required to derive maximum benefits from sanctions relief;
however, substantial. However, economic reform could incur resistance from the IRGC, Khamene'i, and other hardline power
centers. Finally, reformistsReformists in his coalition might press Rouhani to try to achieve the release of the imprisoned reformist
leaders Musavi and Karrubi; however, Rouhani has thus far shown no inclination to buck hardliner opposition on this
issue.