Poland and Its Relations with the United
States: In Brief
Derek E. Mix
Analyst in European Affairs
September 30November 17, 2015
Congressional Research Service
7-5700
www.crs.gov
R44212
Poland and Its Relations with the United States: In Brief
Summary
Over the past 25 years, the relationship between the United States and Poland has been close and
cooperative. The United States strongly supported Poland’s accession to the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) in 1999 and backed its entry into the European Union (EU) in 2004. In
recent years, Poland has made significant contributions to U.S.- and NATO-led military
operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Poland and the United States continue working together
on issues such as democracy promotion, counterterrorism, and improving NATO capabilities.
Given its role as a close U.S. ally and partner, developments in Poland and its relations with the
United States are of continuing interest to the U.S. Congress. This report provides an overview
and assessment of some of the main dimensions of these topics.
Domestic Political and Economic Issues
The next Polish general election is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2015. The center-right
Civic Platform party has led the government of Poland since 2007. Current Prime Minister Ewa
Kopacz took over in September 2014 after Donald Tusk resigned to become president of the
European Council. Polls indicate that the conservative Law and Justice Party, which led the
government of Poland from 2005 to 2007, has a substantial lead over Civic Platform and is
favored to win the election.
Law and Justice parliamentary election held on October 25, 2015, resulted in a victory for the
conservative Law and Justice Party. Law and Justice won an absolute majority of seats in the
lower house of parliament (Sejm), and Beata Szydlo took over as the country’s new prime
minister in November 2015. The center-right Civic Platform party had previously led the
government of Poland since 2007. Donald Tusk resigned as prime minister in September 2014 to
become president of the European Council.
Law and Justice had gained momentum with the surprising victory of Andrzej Duda in the May 2015
2015 presidential election. The president is Poland’s head of state and exercises a number of
limited but
important functions. Duda was inaugurated as president of Poland in August 2015.
Poland was one of the few EU economies to come through the 2008-2009 global economic crisis
and the subsequent Eurozone debt crisis without major damage. Although Poland is obligated to
adopt the euro as its currency at the earliest possible time, it has not yet set a target date for
adoption and continues to use the złoty as its national currency.
The Polish government voted in September 2015 to approve the EU’s relocation plan for 120,000
migrants, agreeing to take in over 4,000 migrants currently in Greece and Italy. The decision was
controversial, however, as many Poles, including Law and Justice Party leaders, remain opposed
to participating in the plan.
Defense Modernization
Poland has begun implementing an Armed Forces Technical Modernization Plan for the years
2013-2022 in which it plans to spend approximately $35 billion on a wide range of military
equipment acquisitions and upgrades. Completed and prospective purchases from U.S. suppliers
have a large role in this initiative. The Polish government has adopted plans to increase its
defense budget in 2015 and 2016.
Defense Cooperation
Under the Obama Administration’s European Reassurance Initiative and the U.S. military’s
Operation Atlantic Resolve, U.S. forces have expanded their presence in Poland and increased
joint training and exercises with their Polish counterparts. Some Polish leaders have expressed a
wish for the establishment of permanent bases for NATO and U.S. troops on Polish territory.
Visa Waiver Program
Although relations between Poland and the United States are largely positive, Poland’s exclusion
from the U.S. Visa Waiver Program (VWP) has been a sore spot for many years. Some Members
of Congress have long advocated extending the VWP to include Poland.
Congressional Research Service
Poland and Its Relations with the United States: In Brief
Relations with Russia
Relations between Poland and Russia have a history of tensions, and Polish leaders have tended
to view Russian intentions with wariness and suspicion. Poland has been a leading advocate for
forceful EU sanctions against Russia over its 2014 annexation of Crimea and subsequent role in
the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Retaliatory Russian sanctions have negatively affected Poland
economically, particularly in the agriculture sector.
Energy Security
Poland has been a leading advocate of European energy integration, promoting initiatives to
expand pipeline interconnectivity in order to decrease reliance on Russia. Although Poland
imports over half of its natural gas from Russia, approximately 90% of Poland’s electricity is
generated by coal, and its overall dependence on energy imports is low.
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Poland and Its Relations with the United States: In Brief
Contents
Introduction and Issues for Congress ........................................................................................ 1
Domestic Overview ................................................................................................................... 2
Political Dynamics .............................................................................................................. 2
Economy ............................................................................................................................. 4
Defense Modernization ....................................................................................................... 5
Response to the Migration Crisis ........................................................................................ 6
Relations with the United States ............................................................................................... 7
Defense Relations ............................................................................................................... 7
Economic Ties..................................................................................................................... 9
Visa Waiver Program ........................................................................................................ 10
Relations with Russia .............................................................................................................. 10
Energy Security ........................................................................................................................ 11
Tables
Table 1. Poland .. 12
Figures
Figure 1. Map of Poland .............................................................................................................................. 2 2
Tables
Table 12. Results of 20112015 Polish Parliamentary Election (Sejm) ...................................................... 3
Contacts
Author Contact Information .......................................................................................................... 12
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Poland and Its Relations with the United States: In Brief
Introduction and Issues for Congress
Many U.S. officials and Members of Congress
consider Poland to be a key U.S. ally and one of
the strongest U.S. partners in Europe.
According to the U.S. State Department, areas
of close
bilateral cooperation include “issues
such as NATO capabilities, democratization,
counterterrorism, nonproliferation, missile
defense, human rights, economic growth and
innovation, energy security, and regional
cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe.”1
The Congressional Caucus on Poland is a
bipartisan group of Members of Congress who
seek to
maintain and strengthen the U.S.-Poland
relationship and engage in issues of mutual
interest to both countries.2
Poland: Basic Facts
Area: Land area is about 120,728 sq. mi.; slightly
smaller than New Mexico.
Population: approximately 38.56 million.
Ethnicity: 97% Polish.
Languages: Polish is the official language and first
language of 98.2% of the population.
Religion: 87.2% Roman Catholic, 10.8% listed as
unspecified.
Gross Domestic Product (PPP): $954.5 billion; per
capita GDP is $25,100.
Currency: zloty(PLN), $1=approx. PLN 3.7
Political Leaders: President: Andrzej Duda; Prime
Minister: Ewa Kopacz; Foreign Minister: Grzegorz
Schetyna; Defense Minister: Tomasz Siemoniak
Source: CIA World Factbook
both countries.2
Of the Central European and Baltic countries
that have joined the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) and the European Union
(EU), Poland is by far the most populous country,
the largest economy, and the most significant
military actor. In 1999, with strong backing from
the United States and Members of Congress,
Poland was among the first group of formerly
Communist countries to join NATO. In 2004, again
with strong support from the United States
and Members of Congress, it was among a group of
eight formerly Communist countries to join
the European Union. Many analysts assert that
moreso more so than many other European countries,
Poland continues to look to the United States for
foreign policy leadership.
The activities of the U.S. Congress frequently involve issues that have a European dimension,
including economic, security, and diplomatic issues. Many Members of Congress have long
supported a close transatlantic relationship and have seen the EU, NATO, and the idea of a
Europe “whole and free” as supporting and advancing U.S. interests. Members of Congress may
have an interest in considering the dimensions and dynamics of current issues in U.S.-European
or U.S.-Polish relations, or with regard to NATO, in the course of oversight or legislative
activities, or in the context of direct interactions with Polish and other European legislators and
officials. Poland is also frequently of interest to Congress because some Members have large
ethnic Polish constituencies.
In particular, developments related to the conflict in eastern Ukraine and resurgent concerns about
Russia, as well as attendant implications for U.S. policy and NATO, are likely to have continuing
relevance during the 114th Congress. As discussed in more detail below, a variety of factors
combine to make Poland a central interlocutor and partner for the United States in examining and
responding to these challenges.
1
U.S. Department of State, U.S. Relations With Poland Fact Sheet, September 3, 2015.
For the 114th Congress, the co-chairs of the Congressional Caucus on Poland are Representative Chris Smith,
Representative Dan Lipinski, Representative Marcy Kaptur, and Representative Tim Murphy.
2
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Poland and Its Relations with the United States: In Brief
Figure 1. Map of Poland
Source: CIA World Factbook
Domestic Overview
Political Dynamics
The government of Poland is led by Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz of the center-right Civic
Platform (PO) party. Kopacz took over as prime minister after Donald Tusk resigned in
September 2014 to become president of the European Council (a key EU institution). Tusk had
won a second term as prime minister in the most recent general election, held in October 2011,
and renewed the Civic Platform’s coalition government with the Polish Peasants’ Party (PSL).
With Civic Platform and the Polish Peasants’ Party having governed in a coalition from 2007 to
2011, the 2011 election marked the first time since the end of Communist rule in 1989 that Poles
had reelected an incumbent government. The current coalition holds a six-seat majority, with 236
out of the 460 seats in the Sejm (lower house of parliament). The parliamentary opposition
consists of the conservative/right-wing Law and Justice Party (PiS), the liberal/center-left Your
Movement (TR), and the center-left Democratic Left Alliance (SLD).
The next general election is scheduled for October 25, 2015. Incumbent Prime Minister Kopacz
seeks to retain the position for Civic Platform, while Beata Szydło is the Law and Justice Party
candidate for prime minister. For some time, public opinion polls had tended to show a narrow
advantage for Civic Platform, but during the summer of 2015, the Law and Justice Party took a
double-digit lead. Recent results vary from survey to survey: a September 21 poll put support for
the Law and Justice Party ticket at 39%, compared to 22% for Civic Platform. According to a
September 25 poll, however, the gap had narrowed to 34% for Law and Justice versus 30% for
Civic Platform.3
3
For summaries of poll results, see http://www.thenews.pl/1/3/Tematy/97133.
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Poland and Its Relations with the United States: In BriefTable 1. Poland
Map and Basic Facts
Area: Land area is about 120,728 sq. mi.; slightly smaller than New Mexico.
Population: approximately 38.56 million.
Ethnicity: 97% Polish.
Languages: Polish is the official language and first language of 98.2% of the population.
Religion: 87.2% Roman Catholic, 10.8% listed as unspecified.
Gross Domestic Product (PPP): $954.5 billion; per capita GDP is $25,100.
Currency: zloty(PLN), $1=approx. PLN 3.9
Political Leaders: President: Andrzej Duda; Prime Minister: Beata Szydlo; Foreign Minister: Witold Waszczykowski;
Defense Minister: Antoni Macierewicz
Source: CRS graphic. Map borders and cities generated by Hannah Fischer using data from the Department of
State (2015), Esri (2014), ArcWorld (2014), and DeLorme (2014). Fact information from CIA World Factbook as
of October 2015.
Domestic Overview
Political Dynamics
The government of Poland is led by Prime Minister Beata Szydlo of the conservative Law and
Justice Party (PiS). Szydlo took over as prime minister following the Law and Justice victory in
the October 2015 parliamentary election. With Law and Justice winning 235 out of the 460 seats
in the Sejm (lower house of parliament), the result was the first time since the end of Communist
rule in 1989 that a single party secured an absolute parliamentary majority.
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Poland and Its Relations with the United States: In Brief
From 2007 to 2015, the government of Poland was led by the center-right Civic Platform (PO)
party, in a coalition with the Polish Peasants’ Party (PSL). The coalition’s victory in the 2011
election marked the first time since 1989 that Poles had reelected an incumbent government.
Donald Tusk was the prime minister for most of this period, with Ewa Kopacz taking over after
Tusk resigned in September 2014 to become president of the European Council. Civic Platform
came in second place in the 2015 election, dropping from 207 to 138 seats in the Sejm.
Table 2. Results of 2015 Polish Parliamentary Election (Sejm)
Party
# of Seats
Net # of Seats +/-
% of Vote
Law and Justice (PiS)
235
+78
37.6
Civic Platform (PO)
138
-69
24.1
Kukiz’ 15
42
+42
8.8
Modern Poland
28
+28
7.6
0
-
7.6
16
-12
5.1
KORWiN
0
-
4.8
German Minority
1
0
0.2
United Left
Polish Peasants’ Party (PSL)
Source: Poland National Electoral Commission, http://parlament2015.pkw.gov.pl/349_Wyniki_.
Notes: Turnout was 50.9%. The threshold for entering the Sejm is 8% for groups/party alliances and 5% for
single parties. National minority parties are excepted from the threshold rule.
The Law and Justice Party gained momentum in the May 2015 presidential election, when the
party’s candidate, Andrzej Duda, unexpectedly defeated the incumbent president, Bronislaw
Komorowski of Civic Platform. The president is Poland’s head of state and exercises a number of
limited but important functions, including making formal appointments and overseeing the
country’s executive authority, influencing legislation, representing the state in international
affairs, and acting as commander-in-chief of the armed forces. The 43-year old Duda formally
took office as the new president of Poland on August 6, 2015.
Table 1. Results of 2011 Polish Parliamentary Election (Sejm)
Party
# of Seats
Net # of Seats +/-
% of Vote
Civic Platform (PO)
207
-2
39.2
Law and Justice (PiS)
157
-9
29.9
Your Movement (TR), formerly
Palikot’s Movement (RP)
40
+40
10.0
Polish Peasants’ Party (PSL)
28
-3
8.4
Democratic Left Alliance (SLD)
27
-13
8.2
German Minority
1
0
0.2
Source: Inter-Parliamentary Union, http://www.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2255_e.htm.
Notes: Turnout was 48.9%. In the voting for Poland’s 100-set Senate, the PO won 63 seats, PiS 31 seats,
independent candidates 4 seats, and the PSL 2 seats.
Some analysts have attributed Poland’s shifting political dynamicsin August 2015.
Some analysts attributed the Law and Justice Party’s electoral victory to a sense of voter fatigue
toward Civic Platform and related public discontent with the country’s political establishment.
Analysts also pointpointed to the changeover in leadership with the departure to Brussels of former
Prime Minister Tusk, who was one of the co-founders of Civic Platform in 2001, as a contributing
factor in the
party’s apparent decline. Civic Platform haswas additionally been affected by the socalledso-called “Waitergate” scandal
involving officials’ secretly taped conversations over expensive
dinners at upscale restaurants,
which caused the resignation of several government ministers and
other high-level figures in June
2015. At the same time, the Law and Justice Party appears to have
had success in advocating
more statist-nationalist economic policies, as opposed to the “free
market” or “neo-liberal”
policies pursued by Civic Platform, arguing that the benefits of Poland’s
economic development
have fallen unevenly across society and failed to reach many “ordinary”
ordinary citizens.
As with the election of President Duda, analysts do not expect that athe Law and Justice Party
victory in the October election wouldis likely to re-orient key areas of Polish foreign policy; emphasis
would likely is
expected to remain on close relations with the United States, combined with a continued
wariness wariness
of Russia and strong support for Ukraine. Compared to the other main Polish political
parties, the
Law and Justice Party has a relatively “euro-skeptic” approach that prizes national
sovereignty sovereignty
over European integration, which could potentially lead to areas of tension and
conflict with the
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Poland and Its Relations with the United States: In Brief
European Union. In the past, the Law and Justice Party has also had a relatively
tense relationship
with Germany, whereas Civic Platform has sought to build a close partnership
with Berlin.
The Law and Justice Party previously led a coalition government from 2005 to 2007, including a
15-month period during which twin brothers Jaroslaw and Lech Kaczynski served as prime
minister and president, respectively. The Kaczynski brothers co-founded the party in 2001. Lech
Kaczynski was the president of Poland until 2010, when he died in an airplane crash in Russia
that also killed 95 other high-ranking Polish officials.
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While the Law and Justice Party and Civic Platform are the main competitors, a number of
smaller parties are also contesting the election. The September 21 poll referenced above found
8% support for the United Left electoral alliance that includes Your Movement, the Democratic
Left Alliance, the Greens, the Polish Socialist Party, and Labour United; 6% support for the
liberal Modern Poland party; and 5% support for the Polish Peasants’ Party.4 According to the
poll, support for the new populist/anti-establishment Kukiz’s Movement, led by popular rock
musician Pawel Kukiz, has declined below the 5% threshold required to gain representation in the
Sejm. Kukiz unexpectedly won 20.8% of the vote to come in third place in the first round of
voting in the May 2015 presidential election. Should the PiS win the most seats in the Sejm but
fall short of a majority, some observers have suggested that the party might seek a coalition
arrangement with Kukiz’s Movement.
Jaroslaw Kaczynski remains the head of the
Law and Justice Party, and many observers expect that he will continue to wield considerable
political influence behind the scenes.
Leadership of the European Council
As President of the European Council, former Prime Minister Donald Tusk is the first official from the newer
member member
states of Central and Eastern Europe to head a major EU institution. In this position, Tusk serves as an
impartial EU
official rather than a national representative of Poland, although his national perspectives and
background presumably
factor into his work. The President of the Council is appointed by agreement among the
EU member states and
serves a two-and-a-half year term, renewable once.
The European Council is composed of the 28 Heads of State or Government of the EU’s member states, the
President of the European Commission, and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. It is
the the
EU’s highest level of political authority, responsible for identifying “the strategic interests and objectives of the
Union”
and supplying political direction that defines the priorities for the EU’s foreign and security policy.
Decisions are made on the basis of consensus. The President of the Council is tasked with managing its work,
facilitating consensus, and ensuring policy continuity, while also acting as the group’s spokesman. Observers assert
that Tusk has maintained a relatively low-profile approach to the job, focusing on pragmatic solutions to the
challenges facing the EU.
Economy
Poland’s economy is among the most successful in Central and Eastern Europe. Most Polish
governments since 1989 have generally supported free-market reforms. Today, the private sector
accounts for over two-thirds of all economic activity. Prior to the 2008-2009 global financial
crisis, Poland enjoyed rapid economic growth exceeding 5% per year. Poland was affected by the
crisis, but much less so than most countries, and Poland’s was the only EU economy to grow in
2009. Growth averaged 3.12.8% per year over the period 20102011-2014. Forecasts expect growth to be
3.32% in 2015 and to average 3.12.9% annually over the period 2016-2019.53
Fiscal consolidation, including through tax increases and entitlement cuts, was a key centerpiece
of the Tusk government’s domestic policy. The government budget deficit has decreased from
7.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2010 to an expected 3.01% of GDP in 2015.
Government debt is expected to be approximately 52% of GDP for 2015. Unemployment has
declined from 13.5% in 2013 to 10.5%.
4
5
http://www.thenews.pl/1/9/Artykul/221885,Conservative-opposition-leads-opinion-polls.
Economic statistics from Economist Intelligence Unit, Country Report: Poland, August 2015.
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Poland and Its Relations with the United States: In Brief
11.1%.
Although Poland joined the European Union in 2004, it is not yet a member of the Eurozone.
Poland continues to use the złoty (PLN) as its national currency, and the Eurozone debt crisis that
began in Greece in 2009 has dampened Polish enthusiasm for adopting the euro (19 of the 28 EU
member countries use the euro as their common currency and are collectively referred to as the
Eurozone). Under the terms of its EU accession treaty, Poland is bound to adopt the euro as its
currency eventually, but there is no fixed target date for doing so. Polish leaders have indicated
that a decision on adopting the euro will not be announced until after the 2015 elections.
3
Economic statistics from Economist Intelligence Unit, Country Report: Poland, November 2015.
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Poland and Its Relations with the United States: In Brief
In response to the Eurozone crisis, Poland has supported the idea of tighter European integration,
signed the EU “fiscal compact,” and backed Germany’s emphasis on fiscal austerity. On the other
hand, Polish leaders have had reservations about proposed steps to increase integration within the
Eurozone that might reduce the influence of non-Eurozone members of the EU.
The PiS hasDuring the election campaign, the Law and Justice Party advanced a number of economic policy
proposals that would loosen fiscal policy in
an attempt to benefit households and families.
Economic reforms proposed by the PiSLaw and Justice include
lowering the retirement age from 67 to
63, increasing child benefits, and raising the income tax
threshold. The PiSLaw and Justice has also
proposed lowering corporate tax on small companies, directing
greater public investment toward
small- and medium -sized enterprises, and introducing new taxes
on large banks and retailers,
many of which are foreign-owned.64
Defense Modernization
Territorial defense and membership in NATO are the two central components of Polish defense
strategy. Poland has sought to build a multi-layered foreign and security policy around this
foundation: besides membership in NATO and the EU, and close ties with the United States,
Poland cooperates closely on a range of regional issues and interests with its Nordic and Baltic
neighbors, as well as with its “Visegrád Group” partners Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech
Republic.75 Over the past several years, analysts have also noted the development of a defense
policy aiming to prepare Poland to defend itself without immediate assistance from its allies.86
Poland has the ninth-largest army in NATO, with 48,200 active personnel, and there are
approximately 99,300 total active military personnel across all branches (Poland ended military
conscription in 2009). Poland’s armed forces are in the midst of a 10-year transformation effort to
develop a smaller, more capable, and more deployable military. Despite budgetary pressures,
Poland is pursuing a broad equipment acquisition program linked to the need to phase out
remaining Soviet-era material and upgrade its main battle tanks and other armored vehicles,
helicopters, air defenses, drones, and individual soldier equipment. Over the period 2013 to 2022,
plans call for the country to spend approximately $35 billion on military modernization.97
In October 2014, then-Prime Minister Kopacz announced her government’s intention to increase
Poland’s defense spending to NATO’s target level of 2% of GDP, and in May 2015 the Sejm voted
overwhelmingly in favor of increasing the 2016 defense budget by approximately $212 million to
6
meet this commitment. According to NATO, Polish defense expenditures were 1.8% of GDP in
2014 (approximately $10.4 billion) and are forecast to reach 2.2% of GDP for 2015.8 During the
election campaign, the Law and Justice Party proposed increasing defense spending to at least
2.5% of GDP.
Numerous elements of Poland’s military equipment modernization plans are of interest and
relevance to U.S. defense planners and U.S defense industry. Central aspects include:
4
Economist Intelligence Unit, Economic Policy of the PiS, August 5, 2015.
The governments of Poland, Hungary, and the former Czechoslovakia founded the Visegrád Group as a platform for
regional cooperation in 1991 in the city of Visegrád, Hungary.
86
Jan Cienski and Linda Kinstler, “Noise on the Eastern Front,” Politico, May 13, 2015.
97
See International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 2015, and Andrew A. Michta, Polish Hard
Power: Investing in the Military as Europe Cuts Back, American Enterprise Institute, December 19, 2013.
7
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Poland and Its Relations with the United States: In Brief
meet this commitment. According to NATO, Polish defense expenditures were 1.8% of GDP in
2014 (approximately $10.4 billion) and are forecast to reach 2.2% of GDP for 2015.10
Numerous elements of Poland’s military equipment modernization plans are of interest and
relevance to U.S. defense planners and U.S defense industry. Central aspects include:
8
NATO Public Diplomacy Division, Financial and Economic Data Relating to NATO Defence, June 22, 2015.
5
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Poland and Its Relations with the United States: In Brief
In December 2014, the United States and Poland finalized a Foreign Military
Sales (FMS) agreement for 40 Lockheed Martin AGM-158 air-launched cruise
missiles and associated F-16 upgrades, reportedly worth about $250 million.119
Delivery is scheduled to begin the second half of 2016. The Polish Air Force
possesses 48 F-16C/Ds in addition to 32 Mig-29s and 33 Su-22s (both of which
are Russian-made).
In April 2015, Poland awarded Raytheon a $2 billion contract to provide Patriot
missile systems for the country’s integrated air and missile defense program.
Eight Patriot batteries are expected to comprise the “Wisla” medium-range
surface-to-air component of a modernized national missile and air defense system
that will be incorporated into the NATO ballistic missile defense project. The first
two batteries are to be delivered by 2018, with the remainder by 2025.
In April 2015, the Polish Ministry of Defense announced the selection of Airbus
Helicopters H225M Caracal, produced by the European consortium EADS, to
replace Soviet-legacy Mi-8s and Mi-17s as the armed forces’ new medium-lift
utility helicopter. The contract is worth an estimated $3.5 billion, although initial
plans to purchase 70 new helicopters were decreased to 50 with a decision to
keep newer Mi-17s in service to 2026-2027. Some analysts expressed surprise
that Poland opted for the Airbus Caracal over the Sikorsky S-70i Black Hawk,
given the U.S.-based company’s deep ties with the Polish defense industry.
Poland is planning to purchase 32 new attack helicopters to replace its fleet of
Soviet-era Mi-24s. The Polish Ministry of Defense is reportedly considering as
many as 10 bidders, a group thought to include the Boeing AH-64 Apache and
the Airbus Tiger.
Poland is expected to procure up to 24 heavy-lift helicopters at a future date, with
U.S. companies Boeing (CH-47) and Sikorski (CH-53) presumed leading
contenders.
The Polish army possesses over 900 main battle tanks, including more than 175
German-made Leopard 2A4/5s, more than 500 Soviet-era T-72M1s, and over
230 PT-91s (modernized and upgraded T-72s). The Polish Ministry of Defense
launched efforts to upgrade some T-72s and PT-91s in 2011.
Response to the Migration Crisis12
In late Crisis10
In September 2015, Poland voted to approve a European Commission plan to resettle 120,000
migrants currently in Greece, Italy, and Hungary to the other EU member states. In approving the
plan, the Polish government agreed to initially take in 4,600 to 4,800 migrants from Greece and
Italy. The agreement may becomebecame a significant campaign issue ahead of Poland’s election, given
10
NATO Public Diplomacy Division, Financial and Economic Data Relating to NATO Defence, June 22, 2015.
in Poland’s October 2015 election, with
debates about the migration crisis highlighting divisions in Polish society and politics.11 Poland’s
vote was also controversial with its regional Visegrád partners, each of which voted to reject the
EU plan. Polish government officials asserted that by joining in approval of the relocation
scheme, they were able to wield more influence in talks and secure objectives such as the removal
9
Nicholas de Larrinaga and Marina Malenic, “Poland Agrees JASSM Purchase,” IHS Jane’s 360, December 11, 2014.
12
For more information, see CRS In Focus IF10259, Europe’s Migration and Refugee Crisis, by Kristin Archick and
Rhoda Margesson.
11
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Poland and Its Relations with the United States: In Brief
that debates about the migration crisis have highlighted divisions in Polish society and politics.13
Poland’s vote was also controversial with its regional Visegrád partners, each of which voted to
reject the EU plan. Polish government officials asserted that by joining in approval of the
relocation scheme, they were able to wield more influence in talks and secure objectives such as
the removal
Piotr Buras, Divided Poland Faces Foreign Policy Crossroads, European Council on Foreign Relations, September
22, 2015.
10
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from the final text of a mechanism that could have been used as a precedent for
further quotas.
Officials additionally noted that the system allows Poland to express a preference
for Christian
migrants, that resettlement would not happen immediately, and that the plan will
only be
implemented if Greece and Italy seal their borders and register migrants.1412
The Law and Justice Party strongly criticized the government’s voteapproval of the plan, and President Duda has
previously voiced opposition to the EU’s relocation initiative. Analysts observe that opposition in
Poland and other Central and Eastern European states to accepting migrants stems from a variety
of sources, including economic arguments that they are less able to accept migrants than their
wealthier neighbors, uncertainty and reluctance as relatively homogenous societies with no
experience of accepting immigrants from diverse cultures, fears about security and
“Islamization,” resentment against perceived “diktats” from Brussels, and elements of
nationalism and xenophobia, promoted largely by far-right political parties.
Relations with the United States
Since the end of the Cold War, Poland and the United States have had close relations. The United
States strongly supported Poland’s accession to NATO in 1999. Warsaw has been an ally in global
counterterrorism efforts and contributed large deployments of troops to both the U.S.-led
coalition in Iraq and the NATO-led mission in Afghanistan. In response to Russia’s aggressive
actions in Ukraine, President Obama chose to announce his Administration’s European
Reassurance Initiative (ERI) during his visit to Warsaw in June 2014.1513
According to many observers, the shared interests that characterize the U.S.-Poland relationship
are underpinned to a large extent by a foundation of broadly shared values. Poland has been a
leading U.S. partner, for example, in international democracy promotion efforts, and has
particularly sought to offer its experience of post-Communist transition in assisting democratic
reform efforts in Europe’s eastern neighborhood. Links between the United States and Poland are
further anchored by considerable cultural ties, as evidenced by the approximately 9.6 million
Americans of Polish heritage.
While relations between Poland and the United States are largely positive, in recent years some
Poles have expressed disappointment about unfulfilled expectations for significantly increased
military assistance and a changed policy on short-term visas for Polish citizens. Some Polish
elites have voiced criticisms over the returns from their alliance with the United States.1614
Defense Relations
While Poland has been a leading participant in NATO’s “out of area” Afghanistan mission, it has
also, given its enduring perception of Russia as a threat, been a leading voice in calls for NATO to
13
Piotr Buras, Divided Poland Faces Foreign Policy Crossroads, European Council on Foreign Relations, September
22, 2015.
14
Andrew Rettman, Poland Defends EU Refugee Decision, EU Observer, September 23, 2015.
15
See White House, Office of the Press Secretary, Remarks by President Obama at 25th Anniversary of Freedom Day,
Warsaw, Poland, June 4, 2014.
16
“Polish Foreign Minister Called Ties to U.S. ‘Worthless’: Report,” Reuters, June 21, 2014.
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Poland and Its Relations with the United States: In Brief
focus on its traditional vocation as an alliance of territorial defense. In the wake of Russia’s
Crimea annexation in March 2014, Polish officials revived a long-standing wish to base U.S.
forces on their territory, calling for two NATO brigades (approximately 10,000 soldiers) to be
stationed in Poland as a security guarantee. In August 2015, President Duda reiterated a call for a
large, permanent NATO force with U.S. troops to be based in Poland, urging an eastward shift of
12
Andrew Rettman, Poland Defends EU Refugee Decision, EU Observer, September 23, 2015.
See White House, Office of the Press Secretary, Remarks by President Obama at 25th Anniversary of Freedom Day,
Warsaw, Poland, June 4, 2014.
14
“Polish Foreign Minister Called Ties to U.S. ‘Worthless’: Report,” Reuters, June 21, 2014.
13
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Poland and Its Relations with the United States: In Brief
NATO bases while criticizing NATO for treating Poland like a “buffer zone.”1715 President Duda
also initiated a “mini-summit” of NATO’s eastern member states for November 2015 to discuss
having a greater NATO presence on their territories.
Under the Obama Administration’s European Reassurance Initiative (ERI) and the Readiness
Action Plan announced at NATO’s September 2014 summit in Wales, the United States and
NATO have bolstered security in the region with an augmented force presence that is rotational
rather than permanent, as well as increased exercises and pre-positioning of assets. FY2015
funding for the ERI totals $985 million.1816
Prior to 2014, in addition to the close cooperation inherent in numerous NATO and coalition
operations over the previous decade, U.S. Armed Forces already engaged routinely in
consultations, joint training programs, and military exercises with their Polish counterparts.1917
Since the emergence of the conflict in Ukraine, however, these activities have received
substantially greater emphasis in the context of the ERI.
Under Operation Atlantic Resolve, launched in 2014 to demonstrate U.S. commitment to
defending NATO’s eastern member states, the U.S. military has conducted continuous, enhanced
training and security cooperation activities with Poland, as well as with Estonia, Latvia,
Lithuania, Romania, and Bulgaria.2018 Starting in April 2014, for example, units from the U.S.
Army’s 173rd Airborne Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division, and 3rd Infantry Division have participated
in rotating deployments in Poland to conduct joint training and exercises with Polish forces. Also
starting in 2014, the U.S. Air Force began augmenting a small detachment that was established at
Lask Air Base in 2013 with rotational deployments of F-16s and their associated support staff for
joint training exercises. Rotating deployments of U.S. C-130 aircraft have been participating in
bilateral training from Powidz Air Base. In June 2015, U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter
announced that the United States would pre-position equipment (including Abrams tanks, infantry
fighting vehicles, and self-propelled howitzers) in Baltic and Central European countries,
including Poland, in order to support the activities of rotational forces.
NATO has additionally sought to increase the alliance presence in the region by reinforcing the
Multinational Corps Northeast, a NATO-affiliated command structure based in Szczecin, Poland,
that has served largely as a vehicle for defense cooperation between Poland, Germany, and
Denmark. On September 1, 2015, NATO activated six new Force Integration Units in Central
Europe and the Baltics, including one in Bydgoszcz, Poland. Launched under the Readiness
Action Plan approved at the 2014 NATO Wales Summit, these small multinational headquarters
are designed to support the rapid deployment of high-readiness forces in the region.
U.S. foreign military sales (government-to-government) agreements with Poland totaled over
$4.7 billion from FY1996 to FY2013 and were approximately $218 million in FY2013.21
1719
Shipment of U.S. direct commercial sales (contractor-to-government) to Poland totaled
approximately $16.8 million in FY2013.20 About two-thirds of Poland’s defense exports went to
the United States in 2013, totaling approximately $295 million. Polish defense exports to the
15
Jan Cienski, “The World According to Duda,” Politico, August 19, 2015, and Henry Foy, “NATO Treats Poland
Like a Buffer State, Says New President,” Financial Times, August 13, 2015.
1816
See http://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2016/FY2016_ERI_J-Book.pdf.
1917
See http://poland.usembassy.gov/mil_cooperation.html.
2018
See Operation Atlantic Resolve, http://www.eur.army.mil/atlanticresolve/.
2119
Defense Security Cooperation Agency, Fiscal Year Series as of September 30, 2013.
20
U.S. Department of State, Section 655 Annual Military Assistance Reports.
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Poland and Its Relations with the United States: In Brief
Shipment of U.S. direct commercial sales (contractor-to-government) to Poland totaled
approximately $16.8 million in FY2013.22 About two-thirds of Poland’s defense exports went to
the United States in 2013, totaling approximately $295 million. Polish defense exports to the
United States consist mainly of components, such as military electronics and elements of aircraft
frames and engines.2321
For FY2014, Poland received from the United States $14 million in Foreign Military Financing
(FMF) and $2 million in International Military Training and Education (IMET). For FY2015, the
State Department requested $9 million in FMF for Poland and $2 million in IMET. For FY2012FY2014, Poland received an additional $28.9 million in security assistance from the Department
of Defense budget to bolster its contribution to the NATO-led mission in Afghanistan and
enhance the training of its Special Operations Forces.
Successive Polish and U.S. administrations have cooperated in the area of missile defense. In
2007, Poland and the Bush Administration began formal talks on an agreement under which
Poland would agree to host U.S. interceptor missiles intended to shoot down ballistic missiles
targeting Europe. In 2008, Warsaw and Washington signed an agreement under which the United
States received permission to deploy the interceptors, and Poland received from the United States
enhanced security guarantees and a pledge to provide short-range, surface-to-air Patriot missiles.
In September 2009, the Obama Administration canceled the Bush-era missile defense program
and replaced it with plans to develop a new capability, known as the European Phased Adaptive
Approach (EPAA), based initially around existing U.S. Patriot, THAAD, and Aegis interceptors.
While reaction in Poland was mixed, then-Prime Minister Tusk claimed that the shift would
neither affect the security of Poland nor undermine relations with the United States. In October
2009, Poland said it would participate in the Obama Administration’s new EPAA program by
hosting SM-3 missiles. It signed an agreement approving deployment in 2010, and an “AegisAshore” site with radar and 24 SM-3s is scheduled to be deployed in Poland in 2018.
Economic Ties
According to the U.S. Department of State, “Strong economic growth potential, a large domestic
market, tariff-free access to the European Union (EU), and political stability are prime reasons
that U.S. companies do business in Poland.”2422 In 2013 estimates (latest data available), the total
U.S. corporate asset base in Poland stood at $65 billion. U.S. foreign direct investment in Poland
totaled $13.5 billion in 2013, and U.S. affiliates employed about 160,000 people in Poland.
Between 2002 and 2012, the number of manufacturing jobs tied to U.S. affiliates operating in
Poland doubled from 51,000 to 102,000.2523
Trade between the United States and Poland has increased significantly over the past decade. In
2004, for example, U.S. exports to Poland were approximately $929 million and imports from
Poland were approximately $1.8 billion. By comparison, in 2014, U.S. exports to Poland were
almost $3.7 billion and imports from Poland were almost $5.2 billion.2624 Leading categories of
22
U.S. Department of State, Section 655 Annual Military Assistance Reports.
U.S. exports to Poland include aircraft, machinery, electrical and medical equipment, and
vehicles. U.S. imports from Poland represent a wide range of items, including heavy machinery,
chemicals, and agricultural products.
21
Ann Pochylska and Marcin Terlikowski, Prospects for Polish-U.S. Defense Industrial Cooperation, Polish Institute
of International Affairs, May 2015.
2422
U.S. Department of State, op. cit.
2523
Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan, The Transatlantic Economy 2015, Center for Transatlantic Relations, p.
88.
2624
U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Trade in Goods with Poland.
23
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Poland and Its Relations with the United States: In Brief
U.S. exports to Poland include aircraft, machinery, electrical and medical equipment, and
vehicles. U.S. imports from Poland represent a wide range of items, including heavy machinery,
chemicals, and agricultural products.
Visa Waiver Program
Many Polish officials and citizens continue to express disappointment that the United States has
not made Poland a Visa Waiver Program (VWP) country. Current U.S. visa policy requires Poles
who wish to travel to the United States to apply for a visa by filling out an application, paying a
$160 non-refundable fee, and completing an interview at a U.S. embassy or consulate. These
requirements are waived for citizens of most European Union countries, since most of the
countries qualify to be included in the VWP.2725 The VWP allows for visa-free travel to the United
States for up to 90 days.2826 Under U.S. policy, Poland does not meet the VWP’s qualifying criteria
because its visitor visa refusal rate (the percentage of applications rejected by U.S. consular
officers who cannot overcome the refusal) remains above the 3% limit. The refusal rate for
Poland was 6.4% in FY2014 and 10.8% in FY2013.2927
Citing Poland’s status as a close U.S. ally, Members of Congress have attempted to change the
law governing the VWP in order to allow Poland to qualify. Most recently, on June 18, 2015, the
Senate Appropriations Committee approved a Poland Visa Waiver Amendment to the FY2016
Homeland Security Appropriations bill. Proposed by Senator Mark Kirk and Senator Barbara
Mikulski, the amendment would permit the Secretary of Homeland Security to designate Poland a
VWP country, notwithstanding the statutory criteria for inclusion. On June 4, 2015, Senators
Mikulski and Kirk had also introduced a Visa Waiver Program Enhanced Security and Reform
Act (S. 1507) that would amend the Immigration and Nationality Act, among other provisions, to
authorize the Secretary of Homeland Security to waive the refusal rate criteria and designate a
country eligible for the VWP given the fulfillment of certain other criteria, which Poland likely
meets. (The act was introduced in the House of Representatives on June 8 as H.R. 2686.) Some
opponents of extending the VWP to include Poland argue that such a step could allow a
significant increase in the number of Poles who remain illegally in the United States (i.e., become
an unauthorized alien).3028 Proponents of including Poland argue that such a move would increase
U.S. tourism revenue, boost public diplomacy, and strengthen national security by extending the
information sharing elements of the VWP to Poland.3129
Relations with Russia
Historically, Poland has had a difficult relationship with Russia. Despite a short-lived thaw in the
relationship before and after the 2010 crash of the Polish presidential airplane, Polish suspicions
about the nature of Putin’s Russia persist, and Warsaw tends to view Russia as a potential threat
to Poland and its neighbors. Recent events in Ukraine have sharpened long-standing Polish
concerns about Russia’s intentions and put security at the top of Poland’s national agenda.
27Poland’s view of Russia remains affected by the experience of Soviet invasion during World War
Two and domination during the Communist era, although more recent events such as the 2006
Russian-German agreement to construct the Nord Stream gas pipeline through the Baltic Sea,
25
There are currently 38 countries participating in the U.S. Visa Waiver Program, including 23 of the 28 member
countries of the European Union.
2826
For more information on the VWP and debates surrounding the VWP, see CRS Report RL32221, Visa Waiver
Program, by Alison Siskin.
2927
See http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Non-Immigrant-Statistics/refusalratelanguage.pdf.
3028
See, for example, Jessica Vaughan, Senators Vote to Allow Visa Waivers for Poland, Center for Immigration Studies,
June 22, 2015.
3129
See, for example, Edwin J. Feulner, Vouching for the Visa Waiver Program, Heritage Foundation, October 16, 2014.
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Poland’s view of Russia remains affected by the experience of Soviet invasion during World War
Two and domination during the Communist era, although more recent events such as the 2006
Russian-German agreement to construct the Nord Stream gas pipeline through the Baltic Sea,
bypassing the Baltic states and Poland, have also strained relations. The Russian government, in
turn, was angered by the Polish government’s offer to host U.S. missile defense facilities during
the Bush Administration. Warsaw’s promotion of the EU’s Eastern Partnership initiative to
deepen ties with Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Armenia, and Azerbaijan has also long
annoyed officials in Moscow, who view the region as lying within Russia’s traditional sphere of
influence.
The former Tusk government led calls for a robust response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine,
including through sanctions and an increased NATO military presence in Central and Eastern
Europe. Public opinion backed this approach to a large extent: for example, in the German
Marshall Fund of the United States’ Transatlantic Trends 2014 survey, 77% of Poles approved of
stronger economic sanctions against Russia. The survey was conducted in June 2014, before the
shooting down of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine galvanized the European
Union to impose wider sectoral sanctions.
The government of Prime Minister Kopacz has sought to revise policy on Russia and Ukraine
toward toward
a relatively gentler approach that moves Poland away from being a leading Russia hawk
toward the EU consensus position. In October 2014, Kopacz told Poland’s Parliament she was
concerned about “an isolation of Poland” due to “unrealistic goals” for the Ukraine conflict,
adding, “[t]he goal of my government will be a pragmatic policy toward what’s going on in
Ukraine.”3230 Nevertheless, analysts observe that the currents of Poland’s Russia policy run deeper
than individual leaders. While the Kopacz government has slightly softened Poland’s overall
approach, Poland has continued to back robust sanctions and played a major role in coordinating
EU and NATO policy in response to Russia’s actions. Some analysts suggest that a PiS
government would be likely to adopt a relatively forceful the Law and
Justice government elected in October 2015 is likely to adopt a comparatively harder line in its
approach to Russia.
In 2013, trade between Poland and Russia totaled nearly $38 billion, and over 5% of Polish
exports were sold to Russia.3331 Poland has been one of the countries most affected by Russian
retaliatory sanctions. As a result of Warsaw’s lead role in pushing for EU measures against
Russia, Moscow targeted Poland even before the EU’s tougher sanctions were adopted in July
2014 by banning the import of certain Polish fruits and vegetables, citing alleged health and
sanitary reasons. In August, Russia retaliated against Western sanctions by banning the import of
produce, meat, and dairy products from the EU and United States (as well as Canada, Australia,
and Norway). In recent years, Polish exports of fruit and vegetables to Russia have been valued at
$1 billion to $2 billion annually.
One area of particular relevance to Poland’s security is Kaliningrad, a 5,800-square-mile Russian
exclave wedged between Poland and Lithuania (see FigureTable 1). Kaliningrad has a heavy Russian
military presence, including the Baltic Sea Fleet and two airbases. In addition, Russia has
reportedly stationed, or at least threatened to station, Iskander short-range nuclear missiles there.
32
Marcin Sobczyk and Patryk Wasilewski, “Poland’s New Premier Signals Shift in Ukraine Policy,” Wall Street
Journal, October 1, 2014.
33
“Poland and Russia Seal Bilateral Relations Roadmap,” Warsaw Voice, December 20, 2013.
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Energy Security
Over half of the natural gas and most of the oil consumed in Poland comes from Russia. Because
Poland continues to rely on coal for approximately 90% of its electricity generation, however,
Russian gas accounts for less than 10% of Poland’s primary energy supply. Overall, as the largest
coal producer in the EU, Poland relies on energy imports for 31% of its needs, well below the EU
30
Marcin Sobczyk and Patryk Wasilewski, “Poland’s New Premier Signals Shift in Ukraine Policy,” Wall Street
Journal, October 1, 2014.
31
“Poland and Russia Seal Bilateral Relations Roadmap,” Warsaw Voice, December 20, 2013.
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Poland and Its Relations with the United States: In Brief
average of 53%.32average of 53%.34 Successive governments have made a priority of efforts to diversify its energy
sources to both reduce gas dependence on Russia and increase the use of cleaner fuels that
produce fewer CO2 emissions.
Poland has also been taking steps such as expanding pipeline interconnectivity with its neighbors
and developing the ability to reverse the flow of gas in the Polish section of the Yamal pipeline,
which runs from Russia to Germany via Belarus and Poland, in order to import natural gas from
the West in the case of a crisis such as a cut-off of Russian gas. The construction of a liquefied
natural gas terminal on the Baltic Sea coast near the German border has suffered a series of
delays, but the facility is expected to become operational by the end of 2015. The Polish
government has also begun an initiative to introduce nuclear power to the country’s energy mix
with the construction of the country’s first nuclear plant. These plans have encountered challenges
and setbacks, with the first unit possibly operational in 2025 and full completion by 2035.
The Polish government has been a leading advocate for a stronger EU energy policy that reduces
collective dependence on Russia. In April 2014, then-Prime Minister Tusk suggested the
formation of an EU “energy union” in which a single European agency would purchase natural
gas for all 28 members, rather than the current system of bilateral negotiations and contracts.
Such an energy union would also include “solidarity mechanisms” for member states to aid one
another in cases of supply disruption. The proposal was opposed by several other EU member
states and has not advanced.
Poland has been active in initiatives to link the natural gas grid of the Baltic countries, which are
dependent on Russia for 100% of their natural gas, to the rest of the EU. A project to build a
pipeline connecting Poland to Lithuania has been launched, although the effort has been
complicated by financing obstacles. The pipeline is expected to become operational in 2020.
Many U.S. officials and Members of Congress have regarded European energy security as a U.S.
interest. In particular, there has been concern in the United States over the influence that Russian
energy dominance could have on the ability to present a united transatlantic position when it
comes to other issues related to Russia. Successive U.S. administrations have encouraged EU
member states to reduce energy dependence on Russia through diversification of supply and
supported European steps to develop alternative sources and increase energy efficiency.
Author Contact Information
Derek E. Mix
Analyst in European Affairs
dmix@crs.loc.gov, 7-9116
3432
Jaroslaw Cwiek-Karpowicz, Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk, and Kirsten Westphal, German and Polish Energy
Policies: Is Cooperation Possible? Polish Institute of International Affairs, January 2013.
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