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Thailand: Background and U.S. Relations

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July 13, 2015Updated December 13, 2018 Thailand: Background and U.S. Relations Overview Thailand is a long-time military ally and significant trade and economic partner for of the United States. For many years, Thailand was seen as a model democracy in Southeast Asia, although this image, along with Washington-Bangkok relations, has been complicated by deep political and economic instability in the wake of two military coups in the past nine years. The first, in 2006, displaced Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a popular but polarizing figure who remains a source of many divisions within Thailand. The second, in 2014, deposed an acting prime minister after Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, was ousted from the premiership by a Constitutional Court decision that many saw as politically motivated. As the Obama Administration executes its policy of rebalancing to Asia, many observers have hoped that Thailand could provide an anchor for U.S. initiatives in Southeast Asia such as broadening regional defense cooperation, fostering more liberal trade and investment regimes in Asia, and strengthening the region’s multilateral organizations. However, Bangkok’s domestic problems and the resulting damage to the U.S.-Thai relationship may mean that opportunities for further bilateral coordination are diminishing. U.S. officials face the challenge of expressing disapproval and pressuring the Thais to restore the democratic process while not sacrificing important cooperative aspects of the relationship. Assembly (NLA), widely seen as a “rubber stamp” legislature, which elected Prayuth as Prime Minister on August 21, 2014. The NCPO is drafting a new constitution, and its members produced a preliminary draft in early 2015. This would grant amnesty to those involved in the 2014 coup, and allow a person to become prime minister without being popularly elected. The NCPO announced that national elections will not be held for at least a year; in May 2015, the government further pushed back elections to AugustSeptember 2016. Thailand’s widely revered King Bhumiphol Adulyadej endorsed the provisional constitution installing Prayuth as head of the government. However, uncertainty about the kind’s health contributes to anxiety about the succession process and further instability if the monarchy is shaken. He is 87, and has been hospitalized for much of the past four years. Political Crisis and 2014 Military Coup The past several years have seen many large-scale political demonstrations and some violent clashes, including weeks of conflict in Bangkok in 2010 during which over 80 were killed. Through nearly a decade of turmoil, the country’s political factions have been divided primarily between two main groups: “yellow shirts” (a mix of the military, royalists, the bureaucracy, and largely urban and middle class citizens) and “red shirts” (mostly Thaksin loyalists who supported his populist policies that benefited the poor, rural regions of Thailand). Political parties that were either led by or supportive of Thaksin have won each of the last six national elections, dating back to 2001. However, a series of Prime Ministers have been removed from office, either via coup or judicial action. In the most recent coup, on May 20, 2014, the Thai military seized power under the leadership ofArmy Commander Prayuth Chan-ocha. The military then dissolved Parliament, detained hundreds of political leaders and academics, imposed a curfew, and restricted media outlets. Prayuth and a group of senior military leaders, known as the National Council of Peace and Order (NCPO), selected members of a new National Legislative U.S. Response to the Coup After the 2014 coup, Secretary of State John Kerry released a statement saying that he was “concerned” about the “coup” and that Thai military leaders should restore civilian rule. The United States immediately suspended military aid to Thailand, including $3.5 million in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) and $85,000 in International Military Education and Training (IMET) funds. However, the Administration has not suspended non-military aid, and humanitarian assistance to Thailand—including international disaster assistance, migration and refugee aid, and global health programs—largely has continued. The United States also cancelled a series of military exercises and Thai military officers’ visits. Nevertheless, in February 2015, the annual Cobra Gold military exercise—the largest in Asia—went ahead, although fewer U.S. troops participated than in previous years. In 2016, the exercises will take place once again, but U.S. participation will remain limited. www.crs.gov | 7-5700 Thailand: Background and U.S. Relations After the 2006 coup, the U.S. reaction was similar: U.S. funding for development assistance and military financing and training programs was cut off while the military held power, but other U.S. assistance continued to flow. U.S.-Thailand Security Relations Security cooperation arguably is the strongest pillar of the U.S.-Thai relationship. In addition to hosting Cobra Gold and other military exercises, Thailand has provided access for the U.S. military to important facilities, particularly the strategically located and well-equipped Utapao airbase. The U.S. military used Utapao for refueling efforts during operations in Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000s, as well as for multinational relief efforts after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and April 2015 Nepal earthquake. Intelligence sharing and law enforcement cooperation remain valuable as the United States confronts international criminal networks and the transnational nature of the ISIS threat. Before the most recent coup, U.S. military leaders touted the alliance as apolitical and praised the Thai armed forces for exhibiting restraint amidst the competing protests and political turmoil. However, the coup put the Thai army at the center of politics, repudiating years of U.S. training about the importance of civilian control of the military. Prior to the 2014 coup, military funding had just returned to pre-2006 coup levels. With the United States suspending military assistance and cancelling exercises, security ties between the United States and Thailand could weaken. Some analysts express concern that this provides China with an opportunity to expand its influence in the Thai defense establishment. U.S.-Thailand Trade and Economic Relations Thailand is a middle-income economy, and trade and foreign investment play a large role in its economy. In 2014, Thailand’s GDP grew 0.7%—the slowest rate in three years. In 2013, Thailand was the United States’ 24th largest goods trading partner, with $38 billion in total two-way goods trade. Thailand is not a participant in the TransPacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations, the Obama Administration’s signature economic initiative in Asia. According to the U.S. Trade Representative, some of the largest barriers to trade in Thailand are high tariff rates in selected industries, particularly in agriculture; a lack of transparency in customs policy where Customs Department officials have “significant discretionary authority”; and the use of price controls or import licenses in some industries. Poor intellectual property rights protection also placed Thailand on the USTR’s Priority Watch List in 2013. Thailand’s Regional Relations Thailand’s importance for U.S. interests in Southeast Asia stems from its large economy, its good relationships with numerous neighbors, including Burma and China, and, until the coups, its relatively long-standing democratic rule. However, because of Thailand’s ongoing political paralysis, the country’s neighbors increasingly are concerned about Thailand’s ability to play a leadership role in regional initiatives, especially those relating to human trafficking and mediating maritime disputes in the South China Sea. Historically, Sino-Thai ties have been quite close, particularly when compared to China’s relations with most other Southeast Asian states. Thailand has no territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea, and trade with China has boomed under the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement, which came into effect in January 2010. Human Rights and Democracy Concerns Some observers, including those in Congress, have long criticized Thailand’s record on human rights. Alleged abuses include extra-judicial killings, curtailment of the press and non-governmental groups, restriction of freedom of expression under strict lèse-majesté laws, and the bloody suppression of demonstrations in 2010. Since the 2014 coup, observers increasingly are concerned about Thailand’s human rights record. Prime Minister Prayuth lifted martial law in April 2015, but afterwards invoked Article 44 of the interim constitution, granting him the authority to issue any order to “strengthen public unity and harmony” in Thailand. Human rights groups immediately criticized the move as overreaching and claimed it increased the likelihood of future human rights abuses. Thailand’s security forces also have been accused of human rights abuses, particularly in the southern Muslimmajority provinces where a separatist insurgency has existed for decades. Since 2004, violence in the region has intensified, resulting in the deaths of around 6,000 people. Thailand is surrounded by considerably poorer countries, and many economic migrants and refugees illegally cross into Thailand. Once they arrive, they are vulnerable to sexual exploitation and forced labor. Many observers say Thailand largely has overlooked these concerns; Thai officials argue that the influx is due to consensual human smuggling. In 2014, the State Department downgraded Thailand to Tier 3 status—the worst ranking—in its annual Trafficking in Persons report, finding that the Thai government was not fully in compliance with the minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking. In one widely reported case from 2013, Thai immigration and military officers were accused of trafficking Rohingya Muslims, a persecuted minority from neighboring Myanmar. In mid2015, Thai authorities were loath to help Rohingya refugees stranded in smugglers’ boats in the Andaman Sea, despite pressure from Western countries. For more information, see CRS Report RL32593, Thailand: Background and U.S. Relations, and CRS Insight IN10072, Military Coup in Thailand. Emma Chanlett-Avery, echanlettavery@crs.loc.gov, 77748 Ben Dolven, bdolven@crs.loc.gov, 7-7626 Wil Mackey, wmackey@crs.loc.gov, 7-5050 www.crs.gov | 7-5700 IF10253Despite these enduring ties, more than a decade of political turmoil in Thailand, including two military coups, in 2006 and 2014, has complicated U.S.Thai relations and erased Thailand’s image as a model democracy in Southeast Asia. In October 2016, Thailand’s political landscape was further rattled when Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn became the country’s new sovereign. He succeeded his widely revered father, King Bhumiphol Adulyadej, who was, when he died, the world’s longest reigning monarch and considered a stabilizing force. Thaskin was, and still is, a divisive figure, and his critics accuse him of corruption and human rights abuses. Since 2001, Thaksin and his supporters have won all six national elections, but their leaders have repeatedly been removed from office, either by military coup or court order. (The 2014 coup deposed an acting prime minister after Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, was ousted from the premiership by a Constitutional Court decision that many observers saw as politically motivated.) During this period of instability, Thailand has seen numerous large-scale demonstrations, and some have turned violent. In 2010, clashes over several weeks killed 80 civilians in Bangkok. Thailand has been run by a military government since the 2014 coup, and its leaders, under Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, have rewritten Thailand’s constitution in ways that protect the military’s political influence in the future. Many observers have criticized the regime’s human rights record, including its harassment of government critics and restrictions on freedom of expression and assembly. After more than four years of military rule, the government has called for nationwide elections on February 24, 2019, and lifted some of the harshest restrictions on assembly for the campaign, but many believe the political changes of recent years will limit the nation’s return to democracy. The United States suspended security assistance to Thailand after the 2014 coup as required by law, but many other aspects of the U.S.-Thai military relationship remain, including the annual Cobra Gold military exercise, the largest multilateral exercise in Asia. The United States continues to provide non-security aid to the country, and maintains regional offices for many U.S. programs at the Embassy in Bangkok. As one of the region’s more developed nations, Thailand has the potential to support U.S. initiatives in the region, such as broadening regional defense cooperation. However, Bangkok’s domestic problems and the resulting damage to U.S.-Thai relations have diminished opportunities for new bilateral coordination. An October 2017 visit by Prayuth to Washington, DC, which included a meeting with President Trump, produced little concrete result, although it indicated that the Trump Administration hopes to maintain steady relations with the military regime. Thailand’s Political Crisis Thailand’s political turmoil has involved a broad clash between the nation’s political establishment (a mix of the military, royalists, senior bureaucrats, and many urban and middle class citizens) and backers of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was deposed in the 2006 coup and who resides overseas. Thaksin was popular, particularly with the rural poor, because of his populist policies—some of which have been adopted by the military regime. Yet, The 2014 coup was Thailand’s 12th successful coup since 1932. It installed then-Army Commander Prayuth as prime minister and head of the military junta known as the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO). Although Prayuth declared an end to martial law in April 2015, the junta has retained authoritarian powers, including under a new Constitution approved by Thai voters in 2016 that was later signed into law, with a few revisions, by the new King. The new Constitution limits the power of political parties. It also gives the military the ability to indirectly appoint members to an upper house that will, along with an elected lower house, select the country’s prime ministers. International observers will likely scrutinize the upcoming polls for any irregularities or suppression. Over the past two decades, Thailand has held mostly free and fair elections, although corruption and vote-buying have been prevalent. After the 2014 coup, the United States immediately suspended military aid to Thailand, including $3.5 million in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) and $85,000 in International Military Education and Training (IMET) funds. However, the United States has not suspended nonmilitary aid, and humanitarian assistance to the country largely has continued. In February 2018, USAID committed $10 million to curtail human trafficking in Thailand. The annual Cobra Gold military exercise also has gone ahead. In the years immediately after the coup, fewer U.S. troops participated in the exercise than in previous years, but the scale of U.S. participation grew in 2018, and in another sign https://crsreports.congress.gov Thailand: Background and U.S. Relations of warming relations, Defense Secretary James Mattis met with Prawit Wongsuwan, Thaland’s Defense Minister, twice in 2018, in April and October. Royal Succession The monarchy is one of Thailand’s most powerful political institutions. It has few formal authorities, but during King Bhumiphol Adulyadej’s reign, the institution enjoyed popular support and, in turn, political influence. In October 2016, King Bhumiphol passed away, ending a 70-year reign that had made him the world’s longest serving monarch. After his accession to the throne, Bhumiphol’s son Maha Vajiralongkorn, officially known as King Rama X, has been more actively politically, opposing some parts of the 2016 Constitution, particularly the requirement that he appoint a regent if traveling overseas, and taking control of the bureau managing the throne’s fortune in July 2017. King Bhumiphol rarely interfered in politics in his later years, but had generally been seen as a moderating force who sought to foster stability among the country’s different political actors. The new king is much less popular than his father, and his political inclinations less certain. If the palace becomes a weaker institution, many political observers believe that competition between other powers, including the military, elected leaders, and the bureaucracy, may lead to further political instability. The military, in particular, has played a major role in supporting royal legitimacy, and it may continue to do so. Since the 2014 coup, as the military government has sought to limit political criticism, it has enforced Thailand’s lese-majeste laws, which forbid insults to the monarch, more broadly. U.S.-Thailand Security Relations Security cooperation has long been the strongest pillar of the U.S.-Thai relationship. In addition to hosting military exercises, such as Cobra Gold, Thailand has provided the U.S. military with access to important facilities, particularly the strategically located Utapao airbase. The U.S. military used Utapao for refueling operations during its campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000s, as well as for multinational relief efforts, including after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and 2015 Nepal earthquake. For U.S. officials, intelligence and law enforcement cooperation with Thai counterparts remains a priority, particularly as the United States confronts international criminal and drug networks. In the past, transnational terrorist organizations have taken advantage of Thailand’s relatively permissive environment, including tourist-friendly travel procedures and central location, for their operations in the region. Before the most recent coup, U.S. military leaders touted the alliance as apolitical and praised the Thai armed forces for exhibiting restraint amidst the competing protests and political turmoil. However, the coup put the Thai army at the center of politics, in spite of years of U.S. training about the importance of civilian control of the military. After the United States suspended military assistance and cancelled some exercises, several analysts noted that U.S.-Thai security ties could weaken, and that Sino-Thai ties could expand. In June 2017, the Thai government announced it would buy 34 Chinese armored personnel carriers, perhaps in an attempt to reduce its reliance on U.S.-made weapons. U.S.-Thai Trade and Economic Relations Thailand is an upper middle-income country, and trade and foreign investment play a large role in its economy. In 2018, Thailand’s GDP is estimated to grow at 3.6%, continuing a period of comparatively slow growth. The United States is Thailand’s third largest trading partner, behind Japan and China. In 2017, Thailand was the United States’ 21st largest goods trading partner; its 26th largest goods export market; and a source of $42 billion in total two-way goods trade. In 2017, the United States ran a $20 billion trade deficit with Thailand, ranking Thailand as the country with the 11th largest bilateral surplus with the United States. In 2017, USTR placed Thailand on its Priority Watch List because of the country’s poor intellectual property rights protection and enforcement. Thailand’s Regional Relations Thailand’s importance for U.S. interests in Southeast Asia stems from its large economy, its good relations with its neighbors, and, until the coups, its relatively long-standing democratic rule. However, because of Thailand’s ongoing political turmoil, the government has been preoccupied with domestic politics and has not played a leadership role in regional initiatives, especially those relating to human trafficking and mediating maritime disputes. Historically, Sino-Thai ties have been close. Unlike several of its Southeast Asian neighbors, Thailand has no formal territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea. Thai imports from China have boomed under the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement, which came into effect in 2010. Human Rights and Democracy Concerns International groups, some Members of Congress, and U.S. officials have criticized Thailand’s alleged human rights abuses, including arbitrary arrests and the lack of protections for trafficking victims, laborers, and refugees. International groups have also identified human rights violations in the Muslim-majority southern provinces where there is an ongoing insurgency that has killed over 7,000 people since 2004. In its 2018 Trafficking in Persons report, the State Department ranked Thailand as a Tier 2 country, an improvement over recent years. Thailand has argued that human smuggling, not trafficking, is the main cross-border issue. Although there is a distinction (smuggling involves illegal, but voluntary, cross-border movements), undocumented migrants are often vulnerable to exploitation by smugglers—which may be tantamount to trafficking. Thailand is not a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention or its 1967 Protocol and does not have a formal national asylum framework. In 2016, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees reported that Thailand hosted 599,459 refugees, asylum-seekers, and stateless people, among others. Emma Chanlett-Avery, Specialist in Asian Affairs Ben Dolven, Specialist in Asian Affairs Wil Mackey, Research Assistant https://crsreports.congress.gov IF10253 Thailand: Background and U.S. Relations Disclaimer This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and under the direction of Congress. Information in a CRS Report should not be relied upon for purposes other than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in connection with CRS’s institutional role. CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not subject to copyright protection in the United States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety without permission from CRS. However, as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or material from a third party, you may need to obtain the permission of the copyright holder if you wish to copy or otherwise use copyrighted material. https://crsreports.congress.gov | IF10253 · VERSION 6 · UPDATED