.
Navy Force Structure and Shipbuilding Plans:
Background and Issues for Congress
Ronald O'Rourke
Specialist in Naval Affairs
March 325, 2015
Congressional Research Service
7-5700
www.crs.gov
RL32665
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Navy Force Structure and Shipbuilding Plans: Background and Issues for Congress
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Summary
The Navy’s proposed FY2016 budget requests funding for the procurement of nine new battle
force ships (i.e., ships that count against the Navy’s goal for achieving and maintaining a fleet of
306308 ships). The nine ships include two Virginia-class attack submarines, two DDG-51 class Aegis
destroyers, three Littoral Combat Ships (LCSs), one LPD-17 class amphibious ship, and one
TAO(X) class oiler. The Navy’s proposed FY2016-FY2020 five-year shipbuilding plan includes a
total of 48 ships, compared to a total of 44 ships in the FY2015-FY2019 five-year shipbuilding
plan.
The planned size of the Navy, the rate of Navy ship procurement, and the prospective
affordability of the Navy’s shipbuilding plans have been matters of concern for the congressional
defense committees for the past several years. The Navy’s FY2015FY2016 30-year (FY2015-FY2044FY2016-FY2045)
shipbuilding plan, like many previous Navy 30-year shipbuilding plans, does not include enough
ships to fully support all elements of the Navy’s 306308-ship goal over the entire 30-year period. In
particular, the Navy projects that the fleet would experience a shortfall in amphibious ships from
FY2015 through FY2017, a shortfall in small surface combatants from FY2015 through FY2027,
and a shortfall in attack submarines from FY2025 through FY2034small surface
combatants from FY2016 through FY2027, a shortfall in attack submarines from FY2025 through
FY2036, and a shortfall in large surface combatants (i.e., cruisers and destroyers) from FY2036
through at least FY2045.
The Navy delivered its narrative report on the FY2015 30-year shipbuilding plan to CRS on July
3, 2014. The Navy estimates in the report that the plan would cost an average of about $16.7
billion per year in constant FY2014 dollars to implement, including an average of about $15.7
billion per year during the first 10 years of the plan, an average of about $19.7 billion per year
during the middle 10 years of the plan, and an average of about $14.6 billion per year during the
final 10 years of the plan.
A December 2014 Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report on the Navy’s FY2015 30-year
shipbuilding plan estimates that the plan will require about 13% more funding to implement than
the Navy estimates, including about 6% more than the Navy estimates during the first 10 years of
the plan, about 14% more than the Navy estimates during the middle 10 years of the plan, and
about 20% more than the Navy estimates during the final 10 years of the plan. Over the years,
CBO’s estimates of the cost to implement the Navy’s 30-year shipbuilding plan have generally
been higher than the Navy’s estimates. Some of the difference between CBO’s estimates and the
Navy’s estimates, particularly in the latter years of the plan, is due to a difference between CBO
and the Navy in how to treat inflation in Navy shipbuilding. The program that contributes the
most to the difference between the CBO and Navy estimates of the cost of the 30-year plan is a
future destroyer that appears in the latter years of the 30-year plan.
Potential issues for Congress in reviewing the Navy’s proposed FY2015FY2016 shipbuilding budget, its
proposed FY2015-FY2019FY2016-FY2020 five-year shipbuilding plan, and its FY2015FY2016 30-year (FY2015FY2044FY2015FY2045) shipbuilding plan include the following:
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•
the potential impact on the size and capability of the Navy of limiting DOD
spending through FY2021 to the levels set forth in the Budget Control Act of
2011, as amended;
•
the appropriate future size and structure of the Navy in light of budgetary and
strategic considerations; and
•
the affordability of the 30-year shipbuilding plan.
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•
the affordability of the 30-year shipbuilding plan.
Funding levels and legislative activity on individual Navy shipbuilding programs are tracked in
detail in other CRS reports.
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Contents
Introduction...................................................................................................................................... 1
Background ...................................................................................................................................... 1
Navy’s Ship Force Structure Goal ............................................................................................. 1
January 2013March 2015 Goal for Fleet of 306308 Ships ........................................................................... 1
306-Ship Goal Reflects 2012 Strategic Guidance and Projected DOD Spending
Shown in FY2013 and FY2014 Budget Submissions ...................................................... 1
Goal for Fleet of 306.. 1
Goal for Fleet of 308 Ships Compared to Earlier Goals ..................................................... 1
February 2015 Navy Testimony Referring to Goal for Fleet of 308 Ships ......................... 3
Navy’s Five-Year and 30-Year Shipbuilding Plans ................................................................... 43
Five-Year (FY2015-FY2019FY2016-FY2020) Shipbuilding Plan ................................................................ 43
30-Year (FY2015-FY2044FY2016-FY2045) Shipbuilding Plan ................................................................... 65
Navy’s Projected Force Levels Under 30-Year Shipbuilding Plan ............................................ 87
Comparison of First 10 Years of 30-Year Plans......................................................................... 8 11
Oversight Issues for Congress for FY2016.................................................................................... 1513
Potential Impact on Size and Capability of Navy of Limiting DOD Spending to BCA
Caps Through FY2021 ......................................................................................................... 1513
Appropriate Future Size and Structure of Navy in Light of Strategic and Budgetary
Changes ................................................................................................................................ 1917
Affordability of 30-Year Shipbuilding Plan ............................................................................ 2725
Estimated Ship Procurement Costs ................................................................................... 2725
Future Shipbuilding Funding Levels ................................................................................. 2927
Legislative Activity for FY2016 .................................................................................................... 3129
FY2016 Funding Request ........................................................................................................ 3129
CRS Reports Tracking Legislation on Specific Navy Shipbuilding Programs ....................... 3129
Figures
Figure 1. Navy Table on Mission Impacts of Limiting Navy’s Budget to BC Levels ................... 1917
Tables
Table 1. Current 306308 Ship Force Structure Goal Compared to Earlier Goals .................................. 2
Table 2. Navy FY2016 Five-Year (FY2016-FY2020) Shipbuilding Plan ....................................... 4
Table 3. Navy FY2015 30-Year (FY2015-FY2044FY2016-FY2045) Shipbuilding Plan .......................................... 76
Table 4. Projected Force Levels Resulting from FY2015 30-Year (FY2015-FY2044FY2016-FY2045)
Shipbuilding Plan ......................................................................................................................... 97
Table 5. Ship Procurement Quantities in First 10 Years of 30-Year Shipbuilding Plans ................. 9 12
Table 6. Projected Navy Force Sizes in First 10 years of 30-Year Shipbuilding Plans ................. 1311
Table 7. Recent Study Group Proposals for Navy Ship Force Structure ....................................... 2220
Table 8. Navy and CBO Estimates of Cost of FY2014 and FY2015 30-Year Shipbuilding
Plans ........................................................................................................................................... 28
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Table B-1. Comparison of Navy’s 306308-ship goal, Navy Plan from 1993 BUR, and Navy
Plan from 2010 QDR Review Panel ........................................................................................... 37
35
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Table D-1. Total Number of Ships in the Navy Since FY1948 ..................................................... 4240
Table D-2. Battle Force Ships Procured or Requested/Programmed, FY1982-FY2020 ............... 4341
Appendixes
Appendix A. Comparing Past Ship Force Levels to Current or Potential Future Ship Force
Levels.......................................................................................................................................... 3331
Appendix B. Independent Panel Assessment of 2010 QDR .......................................................... 3533
Appendix C. U.S. Strategy and the Size and Structure of U.S. Naval Forces ............................... 3937
Appendix D. Size of the Navy and Navy Shipbuilding Rate ......................................................... 4139
Contacts
Author Contact Information........................................................................................................... 4341
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Navy Force Structure and Shipbuilding Plans: Background and Issues for Congress
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Introduction
This report provides background information and presents potential issues for Congress
concerning the Navy’s ship force-structure goals and shipbuilding plans. The planned size of the
Navy, the rate of Navy ship procurement, and the prospective affordability of the Navy’s
shipbuilding plans have been matters of concern for the congressional defense committees for the
past several years. Decisions that Congress makes on Navy shipbuilding programs can
substantially affect Navy capabilities and funding requirements, and the U.S. shipbuilding
industrial base.
Background
Navy’s Ship Force Structure Goal
January 2013March 2015 Goal for Fleet of 306308 Ships
On January 31, 2013, in response to Section 1015 of the FY2013 National Defense Authorization
Act (H.R. 4310/P.L. 112-239 of January 2, 2013), the Navy submitted to Congress a report
March 17, 2015, in response to language in H.Rept. 113-446 (the House Armed Services
Committee’s report on H.R. 4435, the FY2015 National Defense Authorization Act),1 the Navy
submitted to Congress a report presenting a goal for achieving and maintaining a fleet of 306 308
ships, consisting of certain types
and quantities of ships.12 The goal for a 306308-ship fleet is the
result of a force structure assessment
(FSA) that the Navy completed in 2012.
306-Ship Goal Reflects 2012 Strategic Guidance and Projected DOD Spending
Shown in FY2013 and FY2014 Budget Submissions
The 20122014. The 2014 FSA and
the resulting 306308-ship plan reflect the defense strategic guidance document
that the
Administration presented in January 20122 and the associated projected levels of
Department of Defense (DOD) spending shown in the FY2013 and FY2014 budget submissions.
DOD officials have stated that if planned levels of DOD spending are reduced below what is
shown in these budget submissions, the defense strategy set forth in the January 2012 strategic
guidance document might need to be changed. Such a change, Navy officials have indicated,
could lead to the replacement of the 306-ship plan of January 2013 with a new plan.
Goal for Fleet of 306 Ships Compared to Earlier Goals
Table 1 compares the 306-ship goal to earlier Navy ship force structure plans.
1
Department of the Navy, Report to Congress [on] Navy Combatant Vessel Force Structure Requirement, January
2013, 3 pp. The cover letters for the report were dated January 31, 2013.
220123 and 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR).
Goal for Fleet of 308 Ships Compared to Earlier Goals
Table 1 compares the 308-ship goal to earlier Navy ship force structure plans. Compared to the
Navy’s previous 306-ship goal, the differences consist of a requirement for one additional
amphibious ship (specifically, a 12th LPD-17 class amphibious ship) and a requirement for one
additional Mobile Landing Platform/Afloat Forward Staging Base (MLP/AFSB) ship (a ship
included in Table 1 in the “Other” category).
1
See pages 205-206 of H.Rept. 113-446 of May 13, 2014.
Department of the Navy, Report to Congress [on] Navy Fore Structure Assessment, February 2015, 5 pp. The cover
letters for the report are dated March 17, 2015.
3
For more on this document, see CRS Report R42146, Assessing the January 2012 Defense Strategic Guidance
(DSG): In Brief, by Catherine Dale and Pat Towell.
2
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Table 1. Current 306308 Ship Force Structure Goal Compared to Earlier Goals
Changes
to
February
2006 313ship plan
announced
through
mid-2011
February
2006
Navy
plan for
313-ship
fleet
260ships
325ships
20022004
Navy
plan
for
375ship
Navya
2001
QDR
plan
for
310ship
Navy
Early-2005
Navy plan
for fleet of
260-325
ships
308ship
plan of
March
2015
306ship
plan of
January
2013
~310316 ship
plan of
March
2012
Revised
313-ship
plan of
September
2011
Ballistic missile submarines
(SSBNs)
12b
12b
12-14b
12b
12b
14
14
14
14
14
Cruise missile submarines
(SSGNs)
0c
0c
0-4c
4c
0c
4
4
4
4
2 or
4d
Attack submarines (SSNs)
48
48
~48
48
48
48
37
41
55
55
Aircraft carriers
11e
11e
11e
11e
11e
11f
10
11
12
12
Cruisers and destroyers
88
88
~90
94
94g
88
67
92
104
116
Frigates
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Littoral Combat Ships (LCSs)
52
52
~55
55
55
55
63
82
56
0
Amphibious ships
34
33
~32
33
33h
31
17
24
37
36
MPF(F) shipsi
0j
0j
0j
0j
0j
12i
14i
20i
0i
0i
Combat logistics (resupply) ships
29
29
~29
30
30
30
24
26
42
34
Dedicated mine warfare ships
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
26k
16
10l
10l
10l
10l
21l
3
0
0
0
0
17
10
11
25
25
313
260
325
375
310
or
312
Ship type
Joint High Speed Vessels (JHSVs)
Otherm
Total battle force ships
24
23
~23
16
24n
308
306
~310316
313
328
Sources: Table prepared by CRS based on U.S. Navy data.
Note: QDR is Quadrennial Defense Review. The “~” symbol means approximately and signals that the number
in question may be refined as a result of the Naval Force Structure Assessment currently in progress.
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a.
Initial composition. Composition was subsequently modified.
b.
The Navy plans to replace the 14 current Ohio-class SSBNs with a new class of 12 next-generation SSBNs.
For further discussion, see CRS Report R41129, Navy Ohio Replacement (SSBN[X]) Ballistic Missile Submarine
Program: Background and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O'Rourke.
c.
Although the Navy plans to continue operating its four SSGNs until they reach retirement age in the late
2020s, the Navy does not plan to replace these ships when they retire. This situation can be expressed in a
table like this one with either a 4 or a zero.
d.
The report on the 2001 QDR did not mention a specific figure for SSGNs. The Administration’s proposed
FY2001 DOD budget requested funding to support the conversion of two available Trident SSBNs into
SSGNs, and the retirement of two other Trident SSBNs. Congress, in marking up this request, supported a
plan to convert all four available SSBNs into SSGNs.
e.
With congressional approval, the goal has been temporarily be reduced to 10 carriers for the period
between the retirement of the carrier Enterprise (CVN-65) in December 2012 and entry into service of the
carrier Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), currently scheduled for September 2015.
f.
For a time, the Navy characterized the goal as 11 carriers in the nearer term, and eventually 12 carriers.
g.
The 94-ship goal was announced by the Navy in an April 2011 report to Congress on naval force structure
and missile defense.
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h.
The Navy acknowledged that meeting a requirement for being able to lift the assault echelons of 2.0 Marine
Expeditionary Brigades (MEBs) would require a minimum of 33 amphibious ships rather than the 31 ships
shown in the February 2006 plan. For further discussion, see CRS Report RL34476, Navy LPD-17 Amphibious
Ship Procurement: Background, Issues, and Options for Congress, by Ronald O'Rourke.
i.
Today’s Maritime Prepositioning Force (MPF) ships are intended primarily to support Marine Corps
operations ashore, rather than Navy combat operations, and thus are not counted as Navy battle force
ships. The planned MPF (Future) ships, however, would have contributed to Navy combat capabilities (for
example, by supporting Navy aircraft operations). For this reason, the ships in the planned MPF(F) squadron
were counted by the Navy as battle force ships. The planned MPF(F) squadron was subsequently
restructured into a different set of initiatives for enhancing the existing MPF squadrons; the Navy no longer
plans to acquire an MPF(F) squadron.
j.
The Navy no longer plans to acquire an MPF(F) squadron. The Navy, however, has procured or plans to
procure some of the ships that were previously planned for the squadron—specifically, TAKE-1 class cargo
ships, and Mobile Landing Platform (MLP)/Afloat Forward Staging Base (AFSB) ships. These ships are
included in the total shown for “Other” ships.
k.
The figure of 26 dedicated mine warfare ships included 10 ships maintained in a reduced mobilization status
called Mobilization Category B. Ships in this status are not readily deployable and thus do not count as
battle force ships. The 375-ship proposal thus implied transferring these 10 ships to a higher readiness
status.
l.
Totals shown include 5 ships transferred from the Army to the Navy and operated by the Navy primarily
for the performance of Army missions.
m.
This category includes, among other things, command ships and support ships.
n.
The increase in this category from 17 ships under the February 2006 313-ship plan to 24 ships under the
apparent 328-ship goal included the addition of one TAGOS ocean surveillance ship and the transfer into
this category of six ships—three modified TAKE-1 class cargo ships, and three Mobile Landing Platform
(MLP) ships—that were previously intended for the planned (but now canceled) MPF(F) squadron.
February 2015 Navy Testimony Referring to Goal for Fleet of 308 Ships
At a February 25, 2015, hearing on Department of the Navy acquisition programs before the
Seapower and Projection Forces subcommittee of the House Armed Services Committee,
Department of the Navy officials testified that “the FY 2014 update to the 2012 Force Structure
Assessment (FSA) to meet the Department of the Navy’s required missions in support of the DSG
[Defense Strategic Guidance document of January 2012], has increased the objective to 308-ships
to account for evolving force structure decisions and real-world changes to assumptions made in
2012.”3 The testimony did not detail the composition of this new 308-ship force-level goal, but
one of the officials at the hearing, discussing the anticipated procurement of a 12th LPD-17 class
amphibious ship, referred to the amphibious ship force level goal as having been increased from
33 ships to 34 ships.4
At a February 26, 2015, hearing on the Department of the Navy’s proposed FY2016 budget
before the Defense subcommittee of the House Appropriations Committee, Admiral Jonathan
Greenert, the Chief of Naval Operations, testified that
3
Statement of the Honorable Sean J. Stackley, Assistant Secretary of the Navy (Research, Development and
Acquisition) and Vice Admiral Joseph P. Mulloy, Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Integration of Capabilities and
Resources and Lieutenant General Kenneth J. Glueck, Jr., Deputy Commandant, Combat Development and Integration
& Commanding General, Marine Corps Combat Development Command, Before the Subcommittee on Seapower and
Projection Forces of the House Armed Services Committee on Department of the Navy Seapower and Projection
Forces Capabilities, February 25, 2015, p. 3.
4
Source: Spoken testimony of Vice Admiral Mulloy, as reflected in hearing transcript.
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The 2014 update to the “2012 Force Structure Assessment” (FSA) and other Navy analysis
describe the baseline of ships needed to support meeting each mission....
According to the FSA, the Navy has a requirement for a force of 11 CVN, 88 large surface
combatants (DDG and CG), 48 attack submarines (SSN), 12 SSBN, 11 large amphibious
assault ships (LHA/D), 11 amphibious transport docks (LPD), 11 dock landing ships (LSD),
52 small surface combatants, 10 JHSV, 29 combat logistics force (CLF) ships, and 24
command and support ships.5
The list of ships in the above passage totals 307, and is the same in composition as the 306-ship
goal except that it includes one more ship in the “other” category (i.e., 24 ships rather than 23).
(The “other” category includes, among other things, command and support ships.)
Together, the Navy’s February 25 and 26 testimony suggests that the Navy has a new 308-ship
force-level goal that, compared to the 306-ship goal, includes one additional amphibious ship and
one additional ship in the “other” category.
Navy’s Five-Year and 30-Year Shipbuilding Plans
Five-Year (FY2015-FY2019) Shipbuilding Plan
Table 2 shows the Navy’s FY2015 five-year (FY2015-FY2019) shipbuilding plan.
Navy’s Five-Year and 30-Year Shipbuilding Plans
Five-Year (FY2016-FY2020) Shipbuilding Plan
Table 2 shows the Navy’s FY2016 five-year (FY2016-FY2020) shipbuilding plan.
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Table 2. Navy FY2016 Five-Year (FY2016-FY2020) Shipbuilding Plan
(Battle force ships—i.e., ships that count against 306308-ship goal)
Ship type
FY16
FY17
Ford (CVN-78) class aircraft carrier
FY18
FY19
FY20
1
Total
1
Virginia (SSN-774) class attack submarine
2
2
2
2
2
10
Arleigh Burke (DDG-51) class destroyer
2
2
2
2
2
10
Littoral Combat Ship (LCS)
3
3
3
2
3
14
LHA(R) amphibious assault ship
LPD-17 class amphibious ship
1
1
1
1
LX(R) amphibious ship
Fleet tug/salvage ship (TATS)
1
Mobile Landing Platform (MLP)/Afloat Forward
Staging Base (AFSB)
1
TAO(X) oiler
1
TOTAL
9
10
1
2
1
1
1
5
1
1
1
1
4
10
9
10
48
Source: FY2016 Navy budget submission.
Notes: The MLP/AFSB is a variant of the MLP with additional features permitting it to serve in the role of an
AFSB. The Navy proposes to fund the TATFs and TAO(X)s through the National Defense Sealift Fund (NDSF)
5
Statement of Admiral Jonathan Greenert, U.S. Navy, Chief of Naval Operations, Before the House Subcommittee on
Defense, Committee on Appropriations, on FY 2016 Department of the Navy Posture, February 26, 2015, pp. 9 and 11.
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and the other ships through the Navy’s shipbuilding account, known formally as the Shipbuilding and Conversion,
Navy (SCN) appropriation account.
Observations that can be made about the Navy’s proposed FY2015FY2016 five-year (FY2015-FY2019FY2016-FY2020)
shipbuilding plan include the following:
•
Total of 48 ships. The plan includes a total of 48 ships, compared to a total of 44
ships in the FY2015-FY2019 five-year shipbuilding plan.
•
Average of 8.8 ships per year. The plan includes an average of 9.6 battle force
ships per year. The steady-state replacement rate for a fleet of 306308 ships with an
average service life of 35 years is about 8.78.8 ships per year. In light of how the
average average
shipbuilding rate since FY1993 has been substantially below 8.78 ships
per year
(see Appendix D), shipbuilding supporters for some time have wanted
to to
increase the shipbuilding rate to a steady rate of 10 or more battle force ships
per per
year.
•
DDG-51 destroyers and Virginia-class submarines being procured under
MYP arrangements. The 10 DDG-51 destroyers to be procured in FY2013FY2017 and the 10 Virginia-class attack submarines to be procured in FY2014FY2018 are being procured under multiyear procurement (MYP) contracts.64
•
Flight III DDG-51 to begin with second ship in FY2016. The second of the
two DDG-51s requested for FY2016 is to be the first Flight III variant of the
DDG-51. The Flight III variant is to carry a new and more capable radar called
the Air and Missile Defense Radar (AMDR).
4
For more on MYP contracting, see CRS Report R41909, Multiyear Procurement (MYP) and Block Buy Contracting
in Defense Acquisition: Background and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O'Rourke and Moshe Schwartz.
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•
Modified LCS/Frigate to start in FY2019. The LCS program was restructured
in 2014 at the direction of the Secretary of Defense. As a result of the
restructuring, LCSs to be procured in FY2019 and beyond are to be built to a
more heavily armed design. The Navy has stated that it will refer to these
modified LCSs as frigates.
•
12th LPD-17 class ship added to FY2016. The LPD-17 class ship requested for
FY2016 is to be the 12th ship in the class. The Navy had planned on procuring no
more than 11 LPD-17s, but Congress has supported the procurement of a 12th
LPD-17 by providing unrequested funding for a 12th ship in FY2013 and
FY2015. Responding to these two funding actions, the Navy, as a part of its
FY2016 budget submission, has inserted a 12th LPD-17 into its shipbuilding plan,
and is requesting in FY2016 the remainder of the funding needed to fully fund
the ship.
•
TAO(X) procurement to begin FY2016. The TAO(X) oiler requested for
procurement in FY2016 is to be the first in a new class of 17 ships.
6
For more on MYP contracting, see CRS Report R41909, Multiyear Procurement (MYP) and Block Buy Contracting
in Defense Acquisition: Background and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O'Rourke and Moshe Schwartz.
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30-Year (FY2015-FY2044) Shipbuilding Plan
FY2016 30-Year Plan Not Submitted as Of February 24, 2015
The Navy as of February 24, 2015, had not yet submitted its FY2016 (FY2016-FY2045) 30-year
shipbuilding plan. Discussion below and elsewhere in this report of the Navy’s 30-year
shipbuilding consequently is keyed to the Navy’s FY2015 (FY2015-FY2044) 30-year
shipbuilding plan.
FY2015 30-Year Plan Reflected Proposed Changes in Ship Counting Rules
The Navy’s FY2015 30-year shipbuilding plan incorporated a proposed change in the rules for
how to count battle force ships. Congress, as part of its markup of the Navy’s FY2015 budget,
provided direction to the Navy on how the counting rules were to be changed. The discussion
below of the Navy’s FY2015 30-year shipbuilding plan makes multiple references to the old
counting rules and the Navy’s proposed counting rules. When the Navy’s FY2016 30-year
shipbuilding plan is submitted, it will presumably reflect the direction on counting rules that
congress provided in marking up the Navy’s proposed FY2015 budget. The effect of the
congressional direction is to modify the counting rules somewhat, but not as much as the Navy
had proposed.30-Year (FY2016-FY2045) Shipbuilding Plan
Table 3 shows the Navy’s FY2015FY2016 30-year (FY2015-FY2044FY2016-FY2045) shipbuilding plan.
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Table 3. Navy FY2015 30-Year (FY2015-FY2044FY2016-FY2045) Shipbuilding Plan
FY
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
CVN
1
1
1
1
1
1
LSC
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
32
3
2
3
2
SSC
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
4
42
2
2
3
4
4
4
4
4
2
3
SSN
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
1
2
1
21
1
21
1
21
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
11
1
1
2
2
2
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
SSBN
AWS
CLF
Supt
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
CLF
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
2
3
1
1
2
1
2
Supt
2
1
2
1
1
2
3
2
1
1
1
2
2
32
2
2
Total
7
8
11
10
8
11
8
11
11
13
8
7
5
10
7
10
8
12
9
9
5
5
7
10
8
11
8
10
9
8
Source: FY2015 30-year (FY2015-FY20441
Total
9
10
10
9
10
9
11
13
12
10
6
6
9
7
9
8
9
9
6
6
7
6
9
9
10
8
9
10
8
10
Source: FY2016 30-year (FY2016-FY2045) shipbuilding plan.
Key: FY = Fiscal Year; CVN = aircraft carriers; LSC = surface combatants (i.e., cruisers and destroyers); SSC
= small surface combatants (i.e., Littoral Combat Ships [LCSs]); SSN = attack submarines; SSGN = cruise
missile submarines; SSBN = ballistic missile submarines; AWS = amphibious warfare ships; CLF = combat
logistics force (i.e., resupply) ships; Supt = support ships.
In devising a 30-year shipbuilding plan to move the Navy toward its ship force-structure goal, key
assumptions and planning factors include but are not limited to the following:
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ship service lives;
•
estimated ship procurement costs;
•
projected shipbuilding funding levels; and
•
industrial-base considerations.
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Navy’s Projected Force Levels Under 30-Year Shipbuilding Plan
Table 4 shows the Navy’s projection of ship force levels for FY2015-FY2044FY2016-FY2045 that would result
from implementing the FY2015FY2016 30-year (FY2015-FY2044) shipbuilding plan shown in Table 3.
As part of its FY2015 budget submission, the Navy is proposing to modify the rules for what
ships to include in the count of the number of battle force ships in the Navy. In its FY2015 budget
submission, the Navy has presented figures for projected Navy ship force levels using both the
existing rules and the proposed modified rules. Table 4 and Table 6 show figures using both the
existing rules and the proposed modified rules.
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Navy Force Structure and Shipbuilding Plans: Background and Issues for Congress
FY2016-FY2045) shipbuilding plan shown in Table 3.
Table 4. Projected Force Levels Resulting from FY2015 30-Year (FY2015-FY2044FY2016-FY2045)
Shipbuilding Plan
Where two figures are shown, the first is the figure using existing rules for counting battle force ships,
and the second is the figure using the Navy’s proposed modified rules for counting battle force ships.
306 ship plan
CVN
LSC
SSC
SSN
SSGN
SSBN
AWS
CLF
Supt
Total
308 ship plan
11
88
52
48
0
12
34
29
34
308
FY16
11
87
22
53
4
14
31
29
31
282
FY17
11
90
26
50
4
14
32
29
28
284
FY18
11
91
30
52
4
14
33
29
30
294
FY19
11
94
33
50
4
14
33
29
32
300
FY20
11
95
33
51
4
14
33
29
34
304
FY21
11
96
34
51
4
14
33
29
34
306
FY22
12
97
37
48
4
14
34
29
34
309
FY23
12
98
36
49
4
14
34
29
34
310
FY24
12
98
40
48
4
14
35
29
35
315
FY25
11
98
43
47
4
14
35
29
36
317
FY26
11
97
46
45
2
14
37
29
36
317
FY27
11
99
49
44
1
13
37
29
36
319
FY28
11
100
52
42
0
13
38
29
36
321
FY29
11
98
52
41
0
12
37
29
36
316
FY30
11
95
52
42
0
11
36
29
36
312
FY31
11
91
52
43
0
11
36
29
35
308
FY32
11
89
52
43
0
10
36
29
36
306
FY33
11
88
52
44
0
10
37
29
36
307
FY34
11
88
52
45
0
10
37
29
36
306
FY35
11
88
52
46
0
10
36
29
37
309
FY36
11
86
53
47
0
10
35
29
37
308
FY37
11
85
53
48
0
10
35
29
36
307
FY38
11
84
54
47
0
10
34
29
35
304
FY39
11
85
56
47
0
10
34
29
32
304
FY40
10
85
56
47
0
10
33
29
32
302
FY41
10
85
54
47
0
11
34
29
32
302
FY42
10
83
54
49
0
12
33
29
32
302
FY43
10
83
54
49
0
12
32
29
32
301
FY44
10
82
54
50
0
12
32
29
32
301
FY45
10
82
57
50
0
12
33
29
32
305
Source: FY2016 30-year (FY2016-FY204511
88
52
48
0
12
33
29
33
306
FY15
10
85
19/26
54
4
14
30
29
29/32
274/284
FY16
11
88
23/30
53
4
14
31
29
27/30
280/290
FY17
11
90
27/34
50
4
14
32
29
29/32
286/296
FY18
11
91
31/38
52
4
14
33
29
29/32
295/304
FY19
11
93
35/40
51
4
14
33
29
31/34
301/309
FY20
11
95
36/37
49
4
14
33
29
33/36
304/308
FY21
11
96
36/33
49
4
14
33
29
32/35
304
FY22
11
97
38/36
48
4
14
33
29
32/35
306/307
FY23
12
98
39
49
4
14
33
29
33/36
311/314
FY24
12
98
41/40
48
4
14
34
29
33/36
313/315
FY25
11
98
43
47
4
14
34
29
34/37
314/317
FY26
11
97
46
45
2
14
36
29
34/37
314/317
FY27
11
99
49
44
1
13
35
29
34/37
315/318
FY28
11
100
52
41
0
13
36
29
34/37
316/319
FY29
11
98
52
41
0
12
35
29
34/37
312/315
FY30
11
95
52
41
0
11
35
29
34/37
308/311
FY31
11
91
52
43
0
11
34
29
34/36
305/307
FY32
11
89
52
43
0
10
34
29
35/37
303/305
FY33
11
88
52
45
0
10
35
29
35/37
305/307
FY34
11
86
52
46
0
10
34
29
35/37
303/305
FY35
11
87
52
48
0
10
32
29
35/37
304/306
FY36
11
88
52
49
0
10
32
29
35
306
FY37
11
90
52
51
0
10
33
29
34
310
FY38
11
91
52
50
0
10
33
29
35
311
FY39
11
92
52
51
0
10
33
29
34
312
FY40
10
90
52
51
0
10
32
29
34
308
FY41
10
89
52
51
0
11
33
29
34
309
FY42
10
87
52
52
0
12
32
29
34
308
FY43
10
84
52
52
0
12
31
29
34
304
FY44
10
83
52
52
0
12
31
29
34
303
Source: FY2015 30-year (FY2015-FY2044) shipbuilding plan.
Note: Figures for support ships include five JHSVs transferred from the Army to the Navy and operated by the
Navy primarily for the performance of Army missions.
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Key: FY = Fiscal Year; CVN = aircraft carriers; LSC = surface combatants (i.e., cruisers and destroyers); SSC
= small surface combatants (i.e., frigates, Littoral Combat Ships [LCSs], and mine warfare ships); SSN = attack
submarines; SSGN = cruise missile submarines; SSBN = ballistic missile submarines; AWS = amphibious
warfare ships; CLF = combat logistics force (i.e., resupply) ships; Supt = support ships.
Congressional Research Service
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Navy Force Structure and Shipbuilding Plans: Background and Issues for Congress
Observations that can be made about the Navy’s FY2015FY2016 30-year (FY2015-FY2044FY2016-FY2045) shipbuilding
plan and resulting projected force levels included the following:
•
Total of 264 ships; average of about 8.8 per year. The plan includes a total of
264 ships to be procured, two less thanthe same as the number in the FY2014FY2015 30-year
(FY2014-FY2043FY2015-FY2044) shipbuilding plan. The total of 264 ships equates to an
average of about 8.8 ships per year, which is slightly higher than the approximate
equal to the average procurement rate
(sometimes called the steady-state replacement rate) of
about 8.7 8.8 ships per year that
would be needed over the long run to achieve and
maintain a fleet of 306308 ships, assuming an average life of 35 years for Navy
ships.
•
Proposed modified counting rules affect small surface combatants and
support ships. As can be seen in Table 4, the Navy’s proposed modified rules
for what ships to include in the count of the number of battle force ships (see
“Oversight Issues for Congress for FY201”) would affect the reported figures for
small surface combatants during the period FY2015-FY2024 and the reported
figures for support ships during the period FY2015-FY2035.
•
Eleven cruisers proposed for some form of reduced operating status
included in count. As part of its FY2015 budget submission, the Navy is
proposing to put 11 of its 22 Aegis cruisers into some form of reduced operating
status starting in FY2015, and then return them to service years from now. The 11
cruisers proposed for some form of reduced operating status are included in the
count of battle force ships shown in Table 4 and Table 6 during the years that
they are in reduced operating status
assuming an average life of 35 years for Navy ships.
•
Projected shortfalls in amphibious ships, small surface combatants, and
attack submarines. The FY2015 30-year shipbuilding plan, like many previous
Navy 30-year shipbuilding plans, does not include enough ships to fully support
all elements of the Navy’s 306308-ship goal over the entire 30-year period. In
particular, the Navy projects that the fleet would experience a shortfall in
amphibious ships from FY2015 through FY2017, a shortfall in small surface
combatants from FY2015 through FY2027, and a shortfall in attack submarines
from FY2025 through FY2034 small
surface combatants from FY2016 through FY2027, a shortfall in attack
submarines from FY2025 through FY2036, and a shortfall in large surface
combatants (i.e., cruisers and destroyers) from FY2036 through at least FY2045.
•
Ballistic missile submarine force to be reduced temporarily to 10 boats. As a
result of a decision in the FY2013 budget to defer the scheduled procurement of
the first Ohio replacement (SSBN[X]) ballistic missile submarine by two years,
from FY2019 to FY2021, the ballistic missile submarine force is projected to
drop to a total of 10 or 11 boats—one or two boats below the 12-boat SSBN
force-level goal—during the period FY2029-FY2041. The Navy says this
reduction is acceptable for meeting current strategic nuclear deterrence mission
requirements, because none of the 10 or 11 boats during these years will be
encumbered by long-term maintenance.7
7
For further discussion of this issue, see CRS Report R41129, Navy Ohio Replacement (SSBN[X]) Ballistic Missile
Submarine Program: Background and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O'Rourke.
Congressional Research Service
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Navy Force Structure and Shipbuilding Plans: Background and Issues for Congress5
Comparison of First 10 Years of 30-Year Plans
Table 5 and Table 6 below show the first 10 years of planned annual ship procurement quantities
and projected Navy force sizes in 30-year shipbuilding plans dating back to the first such plan,
which was submitted in 2000 in conjunction with the FY2001 budget. By reading vertically down
each column, one can see how the ship procurement quantity or Navy force size projected for a
given fiscal year changed as that year drew closer to becoming the current budget year.
5
For further discussion of this issue, see CRS Report R41129, Navy Ohio Replacement (SSBN[X]) Ballistic Missile
Submarine Program: Background and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O'Rourke.
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Table 5. Ship Procurement Quantities in First 10 Years of 30-Year Shipbuilding Plans
Years shown are fiscal years
FY of 30-year plan
(year submitted)
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
FY01 plan (2000)
8
8
8
8
7
5
6
6
6
7
6
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
5
5
7
7
11
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
7
8
7
7
9
14
15
13
14
15
9
6
8
9
17
14
15
14
16
15
4
7
7
9
10
12
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
7
7
11
12
14
13
12
11
11
10
7
11
12
13
12
12
10
12
11
6
7
8
8
12
12
13
13
12
12
13
8
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
9
8
12
9
12
9
12
9
13
9
10
13
11
12
9
12
10
12
8
9
10
7
8
9
7
11
8
12
9
12
8
8
7
9
9
10
10
10
11
14
7
8
11
10
8
11
8
11
11
13
9
10
10
9
10
9
11
13
12
FY02 plan (2001)
FY03 plan (2002)
FY04 plan (2003)
FY05 plan (2004)
FY06 plan (2005)
FY07 plan (2006)
FY08 plan (2007)
FY09 plan (2008)
FY10 plan (2009)
FY11 plan (2010)
FY12 plan (2011)
FY13 plan (2012)
FY14 plan (2013)
FY15 plan (2014)
FY16 plan (2015)
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
1315
Source: Navy 30-year shipbuilding plans supplemented by annual Navy budget submissions (including 5-year shipbuilding plans) for fiscal years shown. n/a means not
available—see notes below.
Notes: The FY2001 30-year plan submitted in 2000 was submitted under a one-time-only legislative provision, Section 1013 of the FY2000 National Defense
Authorization Act (S. 1059/P.L. 106-65 of October 5, 1999). No provision required DOD to submit a 30-year shipbuilding plan in 2001 or 2002, when Congress
considered DOD’s proposed FY2002 and FY2003 DOD budgets. (In addition, no FYDP was submitted in 2001, the first year of the George W. Bush Administration.)
Section 1022 of the FY2003 Bob Stump National Defense Authorization Act (H.R. 4546/P.L. 107-314 of December 2, 2002) created a requirement to submit a 30-year
shipbuilding plan each year, in conjunction with each year’s defense budget. This provision was codified at 10 U.S.C. 231. The first 30-year plan submitted under this
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25
10
.
provision was the one submitted in 2003, in conjunction with the proposed FY2004 DOD budget. For the next several years, 30-year shipbuilding plans were submitted
each year, in conjunction with each year’s proposed DOD budget. An exception occurred in 2009, the first year of the Obama Administration, when DOD submitted a
CRS-12
proposed budget for FY2010 with no accompanying FYDP or 30-year Navy shipbuilding plan. Section 1023 of the FY2011 Ike Skelton National Defense Authorization Act
(H.R. 6523/P.L. 111-383 of January 7, 2011) amended 10 U.S.C. 231 to require DOD to submit a 30-year shipbuilding plan once every four years, in the same year that
DOD submits a Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR). Consistent with Section 1023, DOD did not submit a new 30-year shipbuilding plan at the time that it submitted
the proposed FY2012 DOD budget. At the request of the House Armed Services Committee, the Navy submitted the FY2012 30-year (FY2012-FY2041) shipbuilding
plan in late-May 2011. Section 1011 of the FY2012 National Defense Authorization Act (H.R. 1540/P.L. 112-81 of December 31, 2011) amended 10 U.S.C. 231 to
reinstate the requirement to submit a 30-year shipbuilding plan each year, in conjunction with each year’s defense budget.
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Table 6. Projected Navy Force Sizes in First 10 years of 30-Year Shipbuilding Plans
Years shown are fiscal years; where two figures are shown, the first is the figure using existing rules for counting battle force ships, and the second is the
figure using the Navy’s proposed modified rules for counting battle force ships.
FY of 30-year
plan (year
submitted)
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
FY01 plan (2000)
316
315
313
313
313
311
311
304
305
305
316
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
314
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
292
292
291
296
301
305
308
313
317
321
290
290
298
303
308
307
314
320
328
326
289
293
297
301
301
306
n/a
n/a
305
n/a
285
294
299
301
306
315
317
315
314
317
286
289
293
302
310
311
307
311
314
322
286
287
289
290
293
287
288
291
301
309
287
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
284
287
287
285
285
292
298
305
311
315
290
287
286
286
297
301
311
316
322
324
285
279
276
284
285
292
300
295
296
298
282
270
280
283
291
300
295
296
297
297
274/
284
280/
290
286/
296
295/
304
301/
309
304/
308
304
306/
307
311/
314
280
286
295
301
304
304
306
311
313
282
284
294
300
304
306
309
310
315
FY02 plan (2001)
FY03 plan (2002)
FY04 plan (2003)
FY05 plan (2004)
FY06 plan (2005)
FY07 plan (2006)
FY08 plan (2007)
FY09 plan (2008)
FY10 plan (2009)
FY11 plan (2010)
FY12 plan (2011)
FY13 plan (2012)
FY14 plan (2013)
FY15 plan (2014)
CRS-13
FY16 plan (2015)
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
313/
315
Source: Navy 30-year shipbuilding plans supplemented by annual Navy budget submissions (including 5-year shipbuilding plans) for fiscal years shown. n/a means not
available—see notes below.
Notes: The FY2001 30-year plan submitted in 2000 was submitted under a one-time-only legislative provision, Section 1013 of the FY2000 National Defense
Authorization Act (S. 1059/P.L. 106-65 of October 5, 1999). No provision required DOD to submit a 30-year shipbuilding plan in 2001 or 2002, when Congress
considered DOD’s proposed FY2002 and FY2003 DOD budgets. Section 1022 of the FY2003 Bob Stump National Defense Authorization Act (H.R. 4546/P.L. 107-314 of
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317
.
December 2, 2002) created a requirement to submit a 30-year shipbuilding plan each year, in conjunction with each year’s defense budget. This provision was codified at
10 U.S.C. 231. The first 30-year plan submitted under this provision was the one submitted in 2003, in conjunction with the proposed FY2004 DOD budget. For the next
several years, 30-year shipbuilding plans were submitted each year, in conjunction with each year’s proposed DOD budget. An exception occurred in 2009, the first year
of the Obama Administration, when DOD submitted a proposed budget for FY2010 with no accompanying FYDP or 30-year Navy shipbuilding plan. The FY2006 plan
included data for only selected years beyond FY2011. Section 1023 of the FY2011 Ike Skelton National Defense Authorization Act (H.R. 6523/P.L. 111-383 of January 7,
2011) amended 10 U.S.C. 231 to require DOD to submit a 30-year shipbuilding plan once every four years, in the same year that DOD submits a Quadrennial Defense
Review (QDR). Consistent with Section 1023, DOD did not submit a new 30-year shipbuilding plan at the time that it submitted the proposed FY2012 DOD budget. At
the request of the House Armed Services Committee, the Navy submitted the FY2012 30-year (FY2012-FY2041) shipbuilding plan in late-May 2011. Section 1011 of the
FY2012 National Defense Authorization Act (H.R. 1540/P.L. 112-81 of December 31, 2011) amended 10 U.S.C. 231 to reinstate the requirement to submit a 30-year
shipbuilding plan each year, in conjunction with each year’s defense budget.
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.
Oversight Issues for Congress for FY2016
Potential Impact on Size and Capability of Navy of Limiting DOD
Spending to BCA Caps Through FY2021
One potential issue for Congress concerns the potential impact on the size and capability of the
Navy of limiting DOD spending through FY2021 to levels at or near the caps established in the
Budget Control Act of 2011 (BCA) as amended. Navy officials state that a decision to reduce
DOD’s budget to such levels would eventually lead to a smaller and less capable Navy.
Admiral Jonathan Greenert, the Chief of Naval Operations, provided detailed testimony on this
question in his prepared statements for hearings before the Senate Armed Services Committee on
November 7, 2013, and the House Armed Services Committee on September 18, 2013.86 In further
testimony on this issue to the Senate Armed Services Committee on January 28, 2015, Greenert
stated:
A return to sequestration in FY 2016 would necessitate a revisit and revision of the DSG
[Defense Strategic Guidance document of January 2012]. Required cuts will force us to
further delay critical warfighting capabilities, reduce readiness of forces needed for
contingency response, forego or stretch procurement of ships and submarines, and further
downsize weapons capability. We will be unable to mitigate the shortfalls like we did in
FY2013 [in response to the sequester of March 1, 2013] because [unobligated] prior-year
investment balances [which were included in the funds subject to the sequester] were
depleted under [the] FY 2013 sequester [of March 1, 2013].
The revised discretionary caps imposed by sequestration would be a reduction of about $10
billion in our FY 2016 budget alone, as compared to PB-2015. From FY 2016-2020, the
reduction would amount to approximately $36 billion. If forced to budget at this level, it
would reduce every appropriation, inducing deep cuts to Navy Operation and Maintenance
(O&M), investment, and modernization accounts. The Research, Development, Test and
Evaluation (RDT&E) accounts would likely experience a significant decline across the
FYDP, severely curtailing the Navy’s ability to develop new technologies and asymmetric
capabilities.
As I testified to this committee in November 2013, any scenario to address the fiscal
constraints of the revised discretionary caps must include sufficient readiness, capability and
manpower to complement the force structure capacity of ships and aircraft. This balance
would need to be maintained to ensure each unit will be effective, even if the overall fleet is
not able to execute the DSG. There are many ways to balance between force structure,
readiness, capability, and manpower, but none that Navy has calculated that enable us to
confidently execute the current defense strategy within dictated budget constraints.
8
6
See Statement of Admiral Jonathan Greenert, U.S. Navy, Chief of Naval Operations, Before the Senate Armed
Services Committee on the Impact of Sequestration on the National Defense, November 7, 2013, pp. 7-11, and
Statement of Admiral Jonathan Greenert, U.S. Navy, Chief of Naval Operations, Before the House Armed Services
Committee on Planning for Sequestration in FY 2014 and Perspectives of the Military Services on the Strategic
Choices and Management Review, September 18, 2013, pp. 6-10.
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As detailed in the Department of Defense’s April 2014 report, “Estimated Impacts of
Sequestration-Level Funding,” one potential fiscal and programmatic scenario would result
in a Navy of 2020 that would be unable to execute two of the ten DSG missions due to the
compounding effects of sequestration on top of pre-existing FY 2013, 2014, and 2015
resource constraints. Specifically, the cuts would render us unable to sufficiently Project
Power Despite Anti-Access/Area Denial Challenges and unable to Deter and Defeat
Aggression. In addition, we would be forced to accept higher risk in five other DSG
missions: Counter Terrorism and Irregular Warfare; Defend the Homeland and Provide
Support to Civil Authorities; Provide a Stabilizing Presence; Conduct Stability and
Counterinsurgency Operations; and Conduct Humanitarian, Disaster Relief, and Other
Operations. (Table 2 provides more detail on mission risks.) In short, a return to
sequestration in FY 2016 will require a revision of our defense strategy.
Critical assumptions I have used to base my assessments and calculate risk:
Navy must maintain a credible, modern, and survivable sea-based strategic deterrent
Navy must man its units
Units that deploy must be ready
People must be given adequate training and support services
Readiness for deployed forces is a higher priority than contingency response forces
Capability must be protected, even at the expense of some capacity
Modernized and asymmetric capabilities (advanced weapons, cyber, electronic warfare)
are essential to projecting power against evolving, sophisticated adversaries
The maritime industrial base is fragile—damage can be long-lasting, hard to reverse
The primary benchmarks I use to gauge Navy capability and capacity are DoD Global Force
Management Allocation Plan presence requirements, Combatant Commander Operation and
Contingency Plans, and Defense Planning Guidance Scenarios. Navy’s ability to execute
DSG missions is assessed based on capabilities and capacity resident in the force in 2020.
The following section describes specific sequestration impacts to presence and readiness,
force structure investments, and personnel under this fiscal and programmatic scenario:
Presence and Readiness
A return to sequestration would reduce our ability to deploy forces on the timeline required
by Global Combatant Commands in the event of a contingency. Of the Navy’s current battle
force, we maintain roughly 100 ships forward deployed, or 1/3 of our entire Navy. Included
among the 100 ships are two CSG and two ARG forward at all times. CSGs and ARGs
deliver a significant portion of our striking power, and we are committed to keeping, on
average, three additional CSGs and three additional ARGs in a contingency response status,
ready to deploy within 30 days to meet operation plans (OPLANs). However, if sequestered,
we will prioritize the readiness of forces forward deployed at the expense of those in a
contingency response status. We cannot do both. We will only be able to provide a response
force of one CSG and one ARG. Our current OPLANs require a significantly more ready
force than this reduced surge capacity could provide, because they are predicated on our
ability to respond rapidly. Less contingency response capacity can mean higher casualties as
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wars are prolonged by the slow arrival of naval forces into a combat zone. Without the
ability to respond rapidly enough, our forces could arrive too late to affect the outcome of a
fight.
Our PB-2015 base budget funded ship and aviation depot maintenance to about 80 percent of
the requirement in FY 2016-2019. This is insufficient in maintaining the Fleet and has forced
us to rely upon Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) funding to address the shortfall.
Sequestration would further aggravate existing Navy backlogs. The impacts of these growing
backlogs may not be immediately apparent, but will result in greater funding needs in the
future to make up for the shortfalls each year and potentially more material casualty reports
(CASREPs), impacting operations. For aviation depot maintenance, the growing backlog
will result in more aircraft awaiting maintenance and fewer operational aircraft on the flight
line, which would create untenable scenarios in which squadrons would only get their full
complement of aircraft just prior to deployment. The situation will lead to less proficient
aircrews, decreased combat effectiveness of naval air forces, and increased potential for
flight and ground mishaps.
Critical to mission success, our shore infrastructure provides the platforms from which our
Sailors train and prepare. However, due the shortfalls over the last three years, we have been
compelled to reduce funding in shore readiness since FY 2013 to preserve the operational
readiness of our fleet. As a result, many of our shore facilities are degrading. At
sequestration levels, this risk will be exacerbated and the condition of our shore
infrastructure, including piers, runways, and mission-critical facilities, will further erode.
This situation may lead to structural damage to our ships while pierside, aircraft damage
from foreign object ingestion on deteriorated runways, and degraded communications within
command centers. We run a greater risk of mishaps, serious injury, or health hazards to
personnel.
Force Structure Investments
We must ensure that the Navy has the required capabilities to be effective, even if we cannot
afford them in sufficient capacity to meet the DSG. The military requirements laid out in the
DSG are benchmarked to the year 2020, but I am responsible for building and maintaining
capabilities now for the Navy of the future. While sequestration causes significant near-term
impacts, it would also create serious problems that would manifest themselves after 2020 and
would be difficult to recover from.
In the near term, the magnitude of the sequester cuts would compel us to consider reducing
major maritime and air acquisition programs; delaying asymmetric capabilities such as
advanced jammers, sensors, and weapons; further reducing weapons procurement of
missiles, torpedoes, and bombs; and further deferring shore infrastructure maintenance and
upgrades. Because of its irreversibility, force structure cuts represent options of last resort for
the Navy. We would look elsewhere to absorb sequestration shortfalls to the greatest extent
possible.
Disruptions in naval ship design and construction plans are significant because of the longlead time, specialized skills, and extent of integration needed to build military ships. Because
ship construction can span up to nine years, program procurement cancelled in FY 2016 will
not be felt by the Combatant Commanders until several years later when the size of the battle
force begins to shrink as those ships are not delivered to the fleet at the planned time.
Likewise, cancelled procurement in FY 2016 will likely cause some suppliers and vendors of
our shipbuilding industrial base to close their businesses. This skilled, experienced and
innovative workforce cannot be easily replaced and it could take years to recover from
layoffs and shutdowns; and even longer if critical infrastructure is lost. Stability and
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predictability are critical to the health and sustainment of this vital sector of our Nation’s
industrial capacity.
Personnel
In FY 2013 and 2014, the President exempted all military personnel accounts from
sequestration out of national interest to safeguard the resources necessary to compensate the
men and women serving to defend our Nation and to maintain the force levels required for
national security. It was recognized that this action triggered a higher reduction in nonmilitary personnel accounts.
If the President again exempts military personnel accounts from sequestration in FY 2016,
then personnel compensation would continue to be protected. Overall, the Navy would
protect personnel programs to the extent possible in order to retain the best people. As I
testified in March 2014, quality of life is a critical component of the quality of service that
we provide to our Sailors. Our Sailors are our most important asset and we must invest
appropriately to keep a high caliber all-volunteer force. We will continue to fund Sailor
support, family readiness, and education programs. While there may be some reductions to
these programs if sequestered in FY 2016, I anticipate the reductions to be relatively small.
However, as before, this would necessitate higher reductions to the other Navy accounts.
Conclusion
Navy is still recovering from the FY 2013 sequestration in terms of maintenance, training,
and deployment lengths. Only 1/3 of Navy contingency response forces are ready to deploy
within the required 30 days. With stable and consistent budgets, recovery is possible in 2018.
However, if sequestered, we will not recover within this FYDP.
For the last three years, the Navy has been operating under reduced top-lines and significant
shortfalls: $9 billion in FY 2013, $5 billion in FY 2014 and $11 billion in FY 2015, for a
total shortfall of about $25 billion less than the President’s budget request. Reverting to
revised sequester-level BCA caps would constitute an additional $5-10 billion decrement
each year to Navy’s budget. With each year of sequestration, the loss of force structure,
readiness, and future investments would cause our options to become increasingly
constrained and drastic. The Navy already shrank 23 ships and 63,000 personnel between
2002 and 2012. It has few options left to find more efficiencies.
While Navy will do its part to help the Nation get its fiscal house in order, it is imperative we
do so in a coherent and thoughtful manner to ensure appropriate readiness, warfighting
capability, and forward presence—the attributes we depend upon for our Navy. Unless naval
forces are properly sized, modernized at the right pace, ready to deploy with adequate
training and equipment, and capable to respond in the numbers and at the speed required by
Combatant Commanders, they will not be able to carry out the Nation’s defense strategy as
written. We will be compelled to go to fewer places, and do fewer things. Most importantly,
when facing major contingencies, our ability to fight and win will neither be quick nor
decisive.
Unless this Nation envisions a significantly diminished global security role for its military,
we must address the growing mismatch in ends, ways, and means. The world is becoming
more complex, uncertain, and turbulent. Our adversaries’ capabilities are diversifying and
expanding. Naval forces are more important than ever in building global security, projecting
power, deterring foes, and rapidly responding to crises that affect our national security. A
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return to sequestration would seriously weaken the United States Navy’s ability to contribute
to U.S. and global security.97
Greenert’s testimony concluded with the following table:
Figure 1. Navy Table on Mission Impacts of Limiting Navy’s Budget to BC Levels
Source: Statement of Admiral Jonathan Greenert, U.S. Navy, Chief of Naval Operations, Before the Senate
Armed Services Committee on the Impact of Sequestration on National Defense, January 28, 2015.
Appropriate Future Size and Structure of Navy in Light of Strategic
and Budgetary Changes
A related oversight issue for Congress concerns the appropriate future size and structure of the
Navy. Changes in strategic and budgetary circumstances have led to a broad debate over the
future size and structure of the military, including the Navy. Changes in strategic circumstances
include, among other things, the end of major U.S. ground combat operations in Iraq, the winding
down of U.S. combat operations in Afghanistan, China’s military (including naval) modernization
97
Statement of Admiral Jonathan Greenert, U.S. Navy, Chief of Naval Operations, Before the Senate Armed Services
Committee on the Impact of Sequestration on National Defense, January 28, 2015, pp. 4-9.
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effort,108 maritime territorial disputes involving China,119 Russia’s seizure and annexation of
Crimea,
and the U.S. commitment to counter the Islamic State organization.
The Navy’s current goal for a fleet of 306308 ships reflects a number of judgments and planning
factors (some of which the Navy receives from the Office of the Secretary of Defense), including
but not limited to the following:
•
U.S. interests and the U.S. role in the world, and the U.S. military strategy for
supporting those interests and that role;
•
current and projected Navy missions in support of U.S. military strategy,
including both wartime operations and day-to-day forward-deployed operations;
•
current and projected capabilities of potential adversaries, including their antiaccess/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities;
•
regional combatant commander (COCOM) requests for forward-deployed Navy
forces;
•
the individual and networked capabilities of current and future Navy ships and
aircraft;
•
basing arrangements for Navy ships, including numbers and locations of ships
homeported in foreign countries;
•
maintenance and deployment cycles for Navy ships; and
•
fiscal constraints.
With regard to the fourth point above, Navy officials testified in March 2014 that a Navy of 450
ships would be required to fully meet COCOM requests for forward-deployed Navy forces.1210 The
difference between a fleet of 450 ships and the current goal for a fleet of 306308 ships can be viewed
as one measure of the operational risk associated with the goal of a fleet of 306308 ships. A goal for a
fleet of 450 ships might be viewed as a fiscally unconstrained goal.
Actions by China starting in November 2013 that appear aimed at achieving a greater degree of
control over China’s near-seas region,1311 followed by Russia’s seizure and annexation of Crimea in
March 2014, have led to a discussion among observers about whether we are currently shifting
from the familiar post-Cold War era of the last 20 to 25 years to a new and different strategic era
characterized by, among other things, renewed great power competition and challenges to key
aspects of the U.S.-led international order that has operated since World War II. A shift in
strategic eras can lead to a reassessment of defense funding levels, strategy, missions, plans, and
programs. The shift from the Cold War to the post-Cold War era led to such a reassessment in the
108
For more on the modernization of China’s military (particularly naval) capabilities and its potential implications for
required U.S. Navy capabilities, see CRS Report RL33153, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy
Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O'Rourke.
119
For a discussion of these disputes, see CRS Report R42784, Maritime Territorial and Exclusive Economic Zone
(EEZ) Disputes Involving China: Issues for Congress, by Ronald O'Rourke. See also CRS Report R42930, Maritime
Territorial Disputes in East Asia: Issues for Congress, by Ben Dolven, Mark E. Manyin, and Shirley A. Kan.
1210
Spoken testimony of Admiral Jonathan Greenert at a March 12, 2014, hearing before the House Armed Services
Committee on the Department of the Navy’s proposed FY2015 budget, as shown in transcript of hearing.
1311
For a summary of these actions, see CRS Report R42784, Maritime Territorial and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)
Disputes Involving China: Issues for Congress, by Ronald O'Rourke.
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early 1990s. A shift from the post-Cold War era to a new strategic era could lead to a new
reassessment of defense funding levels, strategy, missions, plans, and programs.1412
For additional discussion of the relationship between U.S. strategy and the size and structure of
U.S. naval forces that can form part of the context for assessing the 30-year shipbuilding plan, see
Appendix C.
Some study groups have made their own proposals for Navy ship force structure that reflect their
own perspectives on the points listed above (particularly the first three and the final one). For
purposes of comparison, Table 7 also shows the Navy’s 306308-ship goal of January 2013.
14March 2015.
12
For a discussion, see CRS Report R43838, A Shift in the International Security Environment: Potential Implications
for Defense—Issues for Congress, by Ronald O'Rourke.
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Table 7. Recent Study Group Proposals for Navy Ship Force Structure
Sustainable
Defense
Task Force
(June 2010)
Center for
a New
American
Security
(CNAS)
(November
2008)
Center for
Strategic
and
Budgetary
Assessments
(CSBA)
(2008)b
14
7
14
12
0
4
4
0
2
55
40
55
37
40
41
9
11
8
11
9
8
11
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
88
72-74
88
22
n/a
18
14
65
n/a
56
73
Frigate
0
2-7j
14
n/a
0
0
9e
LCS
52
12j
4
n/a
25
48
55
SSC
0
j
0
n/a
0
40
0f
Navy’s
306ship308ship
goal of
January
2013March
2015
Project on
Defense
Alternatives
(PDA)
(November
2012)
Cato
Institute
(September
2010)a
Independent
Panel
Assessment
of 2010
QDR
(July 2010)
Heritage
Foundation
(April
2011)
SSBN
12
7
14c
6
SSGN
0
6-7
4
SSN
48
42
CVN
11
CVE
Ship type
Submarines
Aircraft carriers
Surface combatants
Cruiser
Destroyer
28d
0
85
Amphibious and Maritime Prepositioning Force (Future) (MPF[F]) ships
Amphibious ships
3334
>23
37
23
n/a
27
36
33
MPF(F) ships
0
n/a
0
0
n/a
n/a
0
3g
LSD station ships
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7h
0
0
0
36
40
230
300
Other: Mine warfare (MIW) ships; Combat Logistics Force (CLF) ships (i.e., at-sea resupply ships), and support ships
MIW
0
14j
14
11
0
CLF ships
29
n/a
33
21
n/a
Support ships
3334
n/a
25
27
n/a
306308
230
309
241
346
TOTAL battle
force ships
31
31
326i
Source: Table prepared by CRS based on the following sources: For Heritage Foundation: A Strong National
Defense[:] The Armed Forces America Needs and What They Will Cost, Heritage Foundation, April 5, 2011, pp. 2526. For Cato Institute: Benjamin H. Friedman and Christopher Preble, Budgetary Savings from Military Restraint,
Washington, Cato Institute, September 23, 2010 (Policy Analysis No. 667), pp. 6, 8-10, and additional
information provided by Cato Institute to CRS by email on September 22, 2010. For Independent Panel
Assessment: Stephen J. Hadley and William J. Perry, co-chairmen, et al., The QDR in Perspective: Meeting
America’s National Security Needs In the 21st Century, The Final Report of the Quadrennial Defense Review Independent
Panel, Washington, 2010, Figure 3-2 on pages 58-59. For Sustainable Defense Task Force: Debt, Deficits, and
Defense, A Way Forward[:] Report of the Sustainable Defense Task Force, June 11, 2010, pp. 19-20. For CNAS:
Frank Hoffman, From Preponderance to Partnership: American Maritime Power in the 21st Century. Washington,
Center for a New American Security, November 2008. p. 19 (Table 2). For CSBA: Robert O. Work, The US
Navy[:] Charting a Course for Tomorrow’s Fleet. Washington, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments,
2008. p. 81 (Figure 5). For PDA: Carl Conetta, Reasonable Defense, Project on Defense Alternatives,
November 14, 2012, 31 pp.
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Notes: n/a is not addressed in the report. SSBN is nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine; SSGN is
nuclear-powered cruise missile and special operations forces submarine; SSN is nuclear-powered attack
submarine; CVN is large nuclear-powered aircraft carrier; CVE is medium-sized aircraft carrier; LCS is Littoral
Combat Ship; SSC (an acronym created by CRS for this table) is small surface combatant of 1,000+ tons
displacement—a ship similar to late-1990s Streetfighter concept; MPF(F) is Maritime Prepositioning Force
(Future) ship; LSD is LSD-41/49 class amphibious ship operating as a station ship for a formation like a Global
Fleet Station (GFS); MIW is mine warfare ship; CLF is combat logistics force (i.e., resupply) ship.
a.
Figures shown are for the year 2020; for subsequent years, reductions from these figures would be
considered.
b.
Figures shown are for the year 2028.
c.
The report calls for a force of 280 SLBMs, which appears to equate to a force of 14 SSBNs, each with 20
SLBM tubes.
d.
The report calls for a force of 28 small surface combatants, and appears to use the term small surface
combatants the same way that the Navy does in the 30-year shipbuilding plan—as a way of collectively
referring to frigates and LCSs. The small surface combatants (SSCs) called for in the November 2008 CNAS
report are separate from and smaller than the LCS.
e.
Maritime Security Frigates.
f.
Plan includes 28 patrol craft (PCs) of a few hundred tons displacement each, as well as 29 boat detachments
and seven riverine squadrons.
g.
Plan shows three Mobile Landing Platform (MLP) ships that the Navy currently plans for the MPF(F)
squadron, plus 16 existing current-generation maritime prepositioning force (MPF) ships and 17 existing
prepositioning ships for Army and other service/agency equipment. Plan also shows 67 other DOD sealift
ships.
h.
T-LSDs, meaning LSDs operated by the Military Sealift Command (MSC) with a partly civilian crew.
i.
The CSBA report shows a total of 488 units by including 162 additional force units that do not count
toward the 306308-ship goal under the battle force ships counting method that has been used since the early
1980s for public policy discussions of the size of the Navy. These 162 additional force units include 16
existing current-generation maritime prepositioning force (MPF) ships and 17 existing prepositioning ships
for Army and other service/agency equipment, 67 other DOD sealift ships, 28 PCs, 29 boat detachments,
and certain other small-scale units. The CSBA report proposes a new counting method for naval/maritime
forces that includes units such as these in the total count.
j.
The report “prescribes ending procurement of the LCS with the 12 already purchased. The Reasonable
Defense model foresees a future cohort of 28 to 33 small surface combatants, including a mix of the 12 LCS
that have already been procured, 14 Mine Counter Measure (MCM) ships already in the fleet, and small
frigates or ocean-going corvettes. As the MCM ships age and leave the fleet, the LCS should assume their
role. The would leave a post-MCM requirement for 16 to 21 additional small surface combatants. For this,
the Navy needs a simpler, less expensive alternative to the LCS.”
A potential key question for Congress concerns whether the U.S. Navy in coming years will be
large enough to adequately counter improved Chinese maritime A2/AD forces while also
adequately performing other missions of interest to U.S. policymakers around the world. Some
observers are concerned that a combination of growing Chinese naval capabilities and budgetdriven reductions in the size of the U.S. Navy could encourage Chinese military overconfidence
and demoralize U.S. allies and partners in the Pacific, and thereby make it harder for the United
States to defend its interests in the region.1513 Potential oversight questions for Congress include the
following:
1513
See, for example, Dan Blumenthal and Michael Mazza, “Asia Needs a Larger U.S. Defense Budget,” Wall Street
Journal, July 5, 2011; J. Randy Forbes, “Defence Cuts Imperil US Asia Role,” The Diplomat (http://the-diplomat.com),
October 26, 2011. See also Andrew Krepinevich, “Panetta’s Challenge,” Washington Post, July 15, 2011: 15; Dean
Cheng, Sea Power and the Chinese State: China’s Maritime Ambitions, Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 2576,
(continued...)
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•
Under the Administration’s plans, will the Navy in coming years be large enough
to adequately counter improved Chinese maritime A2/AD forces while also
adequately performing other missions of interest to U.S. policymakers around the
world?
•
What might be the political and security implications in the Asia-Pacific region
of a combination of growing Chinese naval capabilities and budget-driven
reductions in the size of the U.S. Navy?
•
If the Navy is reduced in size and priority is given to maintaining Navy forces in
the Pacific, what will be the impact on Navy force levels in other parts of the
world, such as the Persian Gulf/Indian Ocean region or the Mediterranean Sea,
and consequently on the Navy’s ability to adequately perform its missions in
those parts of the world?
•
To what extent could the operational impacts of a reduction in Navy ship
numbers be mitigated through increased use of forward homeporting, multiple
crewing, and long-duration deployments with crew rotation (i.e., “Sea Swap”)?
How feasible are these options, and what would be their potential costs and
benefits?1614
•
Particularly in a situation of constrained DOD resources, if enough funding is
allocated to the Navy to permit the Navy in coming years to maintain a fleet of
306308 ships including 11 aircraft carriers, how much would other DOD programs
need to be reduced, and what would be the operational implications of those
program reductions in terms of DOD’s overall ability to counter improved
Chinese military forces and perform other missions?1715
One observer—the person who until recently was the Navy’s lead force-structure planner—stated
the following regarding the Navy’s approach to fleet design:
It is time to rethink how we will design the future Fleet in a way that rebalances
affordability, platform capability, and deployment processes. We must build it as a whole
instead of continuing to “let it happen” one platform requirements decision at a time....
Today the Navy operates about 50 different types of ships and aircraft with individual
design-service lives of 20 to 50 years. On average, about two classes of ship or aircraft
annually come up for a decision on replacement at the end of their service lives. Each of
these decisions, a multi-year joint bureaucratic process with dozens of participating
organizations, is made individually. Typically, as a starting point, the new platform must do
everything the old one did, except in the more challenging threat environment of the future.
All of the decision-making organizations generally advocate for the next-generation platform
to have the desired capabilities unmet by the old one—particularly since any additional unit
cost is not their bill. It is no surprise that this process leads to steadily increasing platform
and overall Fleet cost....
(...continued)
July 11, 2011, p. 10.
1614
For further discussion of these options, see CRS Report RS21338, Navy Ship Deployments: New Approaches—
Background and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O'Rourke.
1715
For further discussion, see CRS Report RL33153, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy
Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O'Rourke.
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The future Fleet is being designed ad hoc, one platform at a time, and we cannot afford this.
How can we change the trend toward an ever-smaller Fleet of ever-better platforms while
maintaining the capability superiority needed to execute our missions? It will take a topdown design to provide a structure in which individual platform requirements can be shaped
and disciplined despite all of the pressures. We will have to consider distributing capabilities
to a greater extent across a force that is securely networked, at least within line of sight,
rather than putting as many as possible on each individual platform and continuing to drive
up its size and cost.
We will have to consider separating weapon magazines from the sensors that direct the
weapons rather than putting both on the same platform. Another option is increasing reliance
on deep-magazine directed energy systems, and on force-wide coordinated soft-kill and
counter-targeting techniques, rather than on engaging each threat with ever-larger and more
expensive kinetic weapons. We can also think about increasing reliance on penetrating highthreat areas with longer-range weapons or with preprogrammed unmanned systems rather
than with manned platforms. Few of these options would rise to the top in the requirements
decision-making process for any individual platform. They only start to make sense when
considered and competed at a Fleet-wide level.
Developing an overall fleet design to structure and discipline individual platform
requirements is no small task. Simply constraining platform cost without dealing with how
capabilities might be delivered differently is not sufficient. This is not a once-and-done
process, as changes in threat and in our own technology options will never stop. But neither
can it be a process that changes the design in some fundamental way every year or two—it
will have to influence platform requirements for a long period of time to affect a significant
number of new platform designs.
We cannot afford to retire legacy platforms prematurely simply because they are not
optimized within our new Fleet design, which will take time to implement and have to be
done incrementally. Real and fundamental change in the roles, missions, and
interdependencies among platform types, and in the balance between manned and unmanned
and between platform and payload, is an inevitable outcome of a Fleet design process. That
is the point. Change is hard, and it will have to be authorized and directed by the Navy’s
leadership or risk not happening.
A number of ideas for a new Fleet design have been offered recently from outside the Navy’s
decision-making mainstream. However, all have had significant flaws, so they have not
received serious consideration. They have assumed things such as beyond line-of-sight
networking that has no survivable future in the face of adversary counter-space capability;
autonomy of unmanned vehicles in executing lethal missions that is beyond the projected
capability of software and U.S. rules of engagement to support; and the use of platforms too
small to be capable of global deployment and sustained sea-based operations, which is how
the U.S. Navy must deliver global naval power. The future Fleet design must be grounded in
technical and operational reality, and it has to come from inside the Navy system....
Developing a rich list of operationally-realistic options supported by rigorous analysis of cost
and feasibility is foundational. It could include:
• The use of a common large aviation-ship hull for Navy sea-control/power-projection air
wings and for Marine Corps vertical-raid/assault-air wings, reconfigurable between the two
missions between the deployments;
• Surface combatants with smaller vertical-launch magazines that can reload at sea from
logistic ships or remotely fire weapons carried in supplementary magazines on logistic ships;
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• Separate classes of surface combatants optimized for air defense or antisubmarine warfare
within a common hull type that can self-defend in peacetime but aggregate to fight
offensively in wartime;
• Tactical-combat aircraft that are optimized for endurance and carriage of long-range
weapons rather than for penetrating sophisticated defenses carrying short-range weapons;
• Large shore-launched unmanned undersea vehicles that take the place of submarines for
preprogrammed missions such as covert surveillance or mine-laying;
• Use of a common hull type for all of the large non-combatant ship missions such as
command ships, tenders, hospital ships, ground vehicle delivery, and logistics; and
• Elimination of support models that are based on wartime reliance on reach-back access to
unclassified cyber networks connected by vulnerable communications satellites or to an
indefensible global internet....
The Navy’s long-term force structure requirement is a 306-ship Fleet of the currentlyplanned designs, of which about 120 (or 40 percent of the force) would be deployed day-today. It would also be able to surge an additional 75 ships (another 25 percent) within two
months to meet warfighting capacity requirements. In other words, about 65 percent is
employed or rapidly employable.
This sounds good, but the reality is that 30 of these 120 deployed ships would be
permanently homeported overseas; 26 would be LCSs that use the rotation of their small
military crews to keep 50 percent of that class forward deployed; and 40 would be Military
Sealift Command support ships that use rotational civilian mariner crewing to keep the ships
deployed 75 percent of the time. The remaining 25 of the forward-deployed force will be
large and complex multibillion dollar warships with all-military crews, supported out of a
rotation base of 140 such ships.
In other words, we plan to buy and operate five of our most expensive ships to keep one
deployed. This is not an efficient way to operate. In times of reduced funding our design
must address ways to meet our deployment goals with a smaller rotation base while
preserving wartime surge capacity.
Many studies and trials have been done over the years on options for reducing the total
number of ships needed to sustain the Navy’s robust peacetime forward-deployed posture.
Increasing forward homeporting in other nations always comes up as the first choice. While
it is a good one, few countries beyond those that currently support this (Japan, Spain, Italy,
and Bahrain) are willing to tolerate a permanent new U.S. shore footprint. Building new
shore-support infrastructure in foreign countries to back this results in a large bill for
construction jobs outside the United States, which Congress normally finds unappetizing.
Using rotational crews to keep ships forward for extended periods without long deployments
for their sailors is an efficient option that works for ships with small crews like LCSs, legacy
mine-warfare ships, or Military Sealift Command support ships. Experiments in which this
has been done with military crews on large complex warships have not turned out well. This
was due both to the logistics of moving large crews overseas for turnovers and the difficulty
of maintaining exact configuration commonality within ships of a class so that a crew
arriving on a ship overseas has trained before deployment on an identical ship (or simulator)
at home. Conversions of ships from military manning to Military Sealift Command civilian
mariner crews that routinely rotate individual crewmembers to sustain ships forward are
limited by the law of war concerning what military actions civilians can perform, and there
are few legal options left for further expansion of this approach.
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What is left in the force-generation model of our current Fleet is a force of our most complex
warships—aircraft carriers, submarines, destroyers, and amphibious ships—operating with
permanently-assigned military crews in the “Fleet Readiness Program” cycle of maintaintrain-deploy with a deployed output of one in five. Future designs must address this model
and find ways to get more deployed time out of these expensive ships and crews—without
exceeding the current objective of having military crewmembers spend no more than 50
percent of their time away from homeport over a complete multi-year operating cycle. The
current limiting factor is the period required to train the crew as a team before deployment
following the inactivity and crew turnover of the shipyard maintenance period.
Naval aviation is steadily moving toward the increased use of high-fidelity single and multiaircraft simulation as a means of developing and sustaining operational proficiency with
reduced use of expensive live flying. These simulators are funded as part of the overall
fielding plan for the aircraft and were also built for the ballistic-missile submarine force to
support its Blue-Gold crew manning concept. There is no equivalent model or set of off-ship
simulators for major sections of the crews of conventional surface warships (other than the
LCS) for nuclear-aircraft carriers or for attack submarines. A Fleet design that bought such
simulation capability as part of its ship production programs—the way that aircraft programs
do—would have significant potential for improving operational output by reducing the time
to train for deployment after maintenance periods.
Today’s Fleet design is the product of many separate and disconnected decisions about the
required capabilities of 50 different types of ships and aircraft. While not ineffective, it is
definitely too expensive. The budget constraints facing the Navy for the next 20 years are not
matched by a projected reduction in the quantity or capability of forces that must be
delivered forward every day or surged forward in wartime.
The only way to meet these demands within available resources is to develop a design that
provides a structure within which the capabilities of future platforms can be shaped to meet
the Fleet’s missions efficiently as an overall force. Doing this will require a systems-level
approach to defining what it must be able to do, and will mean abandoning some cherished
traditions of what each type of platform should do. The alternative is a Navy no longer large
or capable enough to do the nation’s business.1816
Affordability of 30-Year Shipbuilding Plan
Another potential oversight issue for Congress concerns the prospective affordability of the
Navy’s 30-year shipbuilding plan. In assessing the prospective affordability of the 30-year plan,
key factors that Congress may consider include estimated ship procurement costs and future
shipbuilding funding levels. Each of these is discussed below.
Estimated Ship Procurement Costs
If one or more Navy ship designs turn out to be more expensive to build than the Navy estimates,
then the projected funding levels shown in the 30-year shipbuilding plan will not be sufficient to
procure all the ships shown in the plan. Ship designs that can be viewed as posing a risk of being
more expensive to build than the Navy estimates include Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) class aircraft
carriers, Ohio-replacement (SSBNX) class ballistic missile submarines, the Flight III version of
the DDG-51 destroyer, the TAO(X) oiler, and the LX(R) amphibious ship.
1816
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The Navy delivered its narrative report on the FY2015 30-year shipbuilding plan to CRS on July
3, 2014. As shown in the bottom half of Table 8, the Navy estimates in the report that the FY2015
30-year plan would cost an average of about $16.7 billion per year in constant FY2014 dollars to
implement, including an average of about $15.7 billion per year during the first 10 years of the
plan, an average of about $19.7 billion per year during the middle 10 years of the plan, and an
average of about $14.6 billion per year during the final 10 years of the plan.
As also shown in the bottom half of Table 8, a December 2014 Congressional Budget Office
(CBO) report on the Navy’s FY2015 30-year shipbuilding plan estimates that the plan will require
about 13% more funding to implement than the Navy estimates, including about 6% more than
the Navy estimates during the first 10 years of the plan, about 14% more than the Navy estimates
during the middle 10 years of the plan, and about 20% more than the Navy estimates during the
final 10 years of the plan.1917 Over the years, CBO’s estimates of the cost to implement the Navy’s
30-year shipbuilding plan have generally been higher than the Navy’s estimates.
Some of the difference between CBO’s estimates and the Navy’s estimates is due to a difference
between CBO and the Navy in how to treat inflation in Navy shipbuilding. This difference
compounds over time, making it increasingly important as a factor in the difference between
CBO’s estimates and the Navy’s estimates the further one goes into the 30-year period. In other
words, other things held equal, this factor tends to push the CBO and Navy estimates further and
further apart as one proceeds from the earlier years of the plan to the later years of the plan.
Table 8. Navy and CBO Estimates of Cost of FY2014 and FY2015 30-Year
Shipbuilding Plans
Funding for new-construction ships, in billions of constant FY2013 or FY2014 dollars
First 10 years of
the plan
Middle 10 years of
the plan
Final 10 years of
the plan
Entire 30 years of
the plan
FY2014 30-year (FY2014-FY2043) plan (in constant FY2013 dollars)
Navy estimate
15.4
19.8
15.2
16.8
CBO estimate
16.3
22.6
19.1
19.3
% difference
between Navy and
CBO estimates
6%
14%
26%
15%
FY2015 30-year (FY2015-FY2044) plan (in constant FY2014 dollars)
Navy estimate
~15.7
~19.7
~14.6
~16.7
CBO estimate
16.7
22.5
17.5
18.9
% difference
between Navy and
CBO estimates
6%
14%
20%
13%
Source: For FY2014 30-year plan: Congressional Budget Office, An Analysis of the Navy’s Fiscal Year 2014
Shipbuilding Plan, October 2013, Table 3 (page 13). For FY2015 30-year plan: Report to Congress on the Annual
Long-Range Plan for Construction of Naval Vessels for FY2015, p. 8.
1917
Congressional Budget Office, An Analysis of the Navy’s Fiscal Year 2015 Shipbuilding Plan, December 2014, Table
3 on page 14.
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The shipbuilding program that contributes the most to the difference between the CBO and Navy
estimates of the cost of the 30-year plan is a future destroyer, called the DDG-51 Flight IV, that
appears in the final 15 years of the 30-year plan. As shown in the CBO report, this one program
accounts for 38% of the total difference between CBO and the Navy on the estimated cost
implement the 30-year shipbuilding plan, making it almost twice as significant as the next-largest
contributor to the overall difference (the Ohio replacement program, which accounts for 20%).2018
The relatively large contribution of the Flight IV destroyer to the overall difference between CBO
and the Navy on the cost of the 30-year shipbuilding plan appears to be due primarily to three
factors:
•
There are many of these Flight IV destroyers in the 30-year plan—a total of 35,
or 13% of the 264 total ships in the plan.
•
There appears to be a basic difference between CBO and the Navy over the likely
size (and thus cost) of this ship. The Navy appears to assume that the ship will
use the current DDG-51 hull design, whereas CBO believes the growth potential
of the current DDG-51 hull design will be exhausted by then, and that the ship
will require a larger hull design (either a lengthened version of the DDG-51 hull
design, or an entirely new hull design).
•
These destroyers occur in the final 15 years of the 30-year plan, where the effects
of the difference between CBO and the Navy on how to treat inflation in Navy
shipbuilding are the most pronounced.
Future Shipbuilding Funding Levels
It has been known for some time that implementing the 30-year shipbuilding plan would require
shipbuilding budgets in coming years that are considerably greater than those of recent years, and
that funding requirements for the Ohio-replacement (SSBN[X]) ballistic missile submarine
program will put particular pressure on the shipbuilding budget during the middle years of the 30year plan. The Navy’s report on the FY2015 30-year plan states:
Beginning in FY2020 and running through the end of the 30-year plan horizon, the plan
requires an average annual investment of about $17.2B [billion] (FY14$) [i.e., in constant
FY2014 dollars] to finance, which is ~$4B/year more than our historical average annual
investment of ~$13B/yr. In particular, for the period while we are procuring the OHIO
Replacement (OR) SSBN (essentially FY[20]25-FY[20]34), the Navy will have to provide
an average of $19.7B annually with the peak year in FY[20]32 at slightly more than $24B.
Even if the OHIO Replacement Program (ORP) is removed from the [required] resource total
[by funding the program through a different part of the defense budget], the average funding
required beginning in FY2020 is ~$14-15B/yr to build the FSA [Force Structure
Assessment] force [i.e., the planned 306-ship fleet]....
While the force structure presented [in this report] describes a battle force that meets the
requirements of the National Security Strategy and the 2014 QDR [Quadrennial Defense
Review]; it requires funding at an unsustainable level, particularly between FY[20]25 and
FY[20]34... The average cost of this plan during the period in which the DON [Department
2018
Congressional Budget Office, An Analysis of the Navy’s Fiscal Year 2015 Shipbuilding Plan, December 2014, Table
A-1 on page 31.
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of the Navy] is procuring OR SSBN[s] (~$19.7B/year [during] FY2025-[FY]2034) cannot be
accommodated by the Navy from existing resources—particularly if DOD is required to be
funded at the BCA [Budget Control Act] levels....
The DON can only afford the SSBN procurement costs with significant increases in our
[budget] top-line or by having the SSBN funded from sources that do not result in any
reductions to the DON’s current resourcing level....
If the DON is unable to sustain the average annual shipbuilding budgets of $19.7 billion over
the course of the mid-term planning period, which is unlikely to be the case,2119 the battle force
will fall far short of meeting the QDR requirements.2220
In assessing the Navy’s ability to reach the higher annual shipbuilding funding levels described
above, one perspective is to note that doing so would require the shipbuilding budget to be
increased by 30% to 50% from levels in recent years. In a context of constraints on defense
spending and competing demands for defense dollars, this perspective can make the goal of
increasing the shipbuilding budget to these levels appear daunting.
Another perspective is to note that the additional annual funding needed (roughly $4 billion to
$6.7 billion) equates to roughly 0.8% to 1.3% of a defense budget of $521 billion per year (the
Budget Control Act figure for defense spending FY2015). Some observers, noting the U.S.
strategic rebalancing toward the Asia-Pacific region, have advocated shifting a greater share of
the DOD budget to the Navy and Air Force, on the grounds that the Asia-Pacific region is
primarily a maritime and aerospace theater for DOD. In discussing the idea of shifting a greater
share of the DOD budget to the Navy and Air Force, some of these observers refer to breaking the
so-called “one-third, one-third, one-third” division of resources among the three military
departments—a shorthand term sometimes used to refer to the more-or-less stable division of
resources between the three military departments that existed for the three decades between the
end of U.S. participation in the Vietnam War in 1973 and the start of the Iraq War in 2003.2321 In a
context of breaking the “one-third, one-third, one-third” allocation with an aim of better aligning
defense spending with the strategic rebalancing, shifting 0.8% to 1.3% of the defense budget into
the Navy’s shipbuilding account would appear to be quite feasible.
More broadly, if defense spending were to remain constrained to the revised cap levels in the
Budget Control Act, then fully funding the Department of the Navy’s total budget at the levels
shown in the current Future Years Defense Plan (FYDP) would require increasing the Department
of the Navy’s share of the non-Defense-Wide part of the DOD budget to about 41%, compared to
about 36% in the FY2014 budget and an average of about 37% for the three-decade period
2119
This can be read as a double negative—that it is unlikely the Navy will be unable to sustain average annual
shipbuilding budgets at this level. The Navy’s intent appears to be to state that it is unlikely the Navy will be able to do
this.
2220
Report to Congress on the Annual Long-Range Plan for Construction of Naval Vessels for FY2015, June 2014, pp. 5,
6, 7, 9.
2321
The “one-third, one-third, one-third” terminology, though convenient, is not entirely accurate—the military
departments’ shares of the DOD budget, while more or less stable during this period, were not exactly one-third each:
the average share for the Department of the Army was about 26%, the average share for the Department of the Navy
(which includes both the Navy and Marine Corps) was about 32%, the average share for the Department of the Air
Force was about 30%, and the average share for Defense-Wide (the fourth major category of DOD spending) was about
12%. Excluding the Defense-Wide category, which has grown over time, the shares for the three military departments
of the remainder of DOD’s budget during this period become about 29% for the Department of the Army, about 37%
for the Department of the Navy, and about 34% for the Department of the Air Force.
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between the Vietnam and Iraq wars.2422 While shifting 4% or 5% of DOD’s budget to the
Department of the Navy would be a more ambitious reallocation than shifting 0.8% to 1.3% of
the DOD budget to the Navy’s shipbuilding account, similarly large reallocations have occurred
in the past.2523
Legislative Activity for FY2016
FY2016 Funding Request
The Navy’s proposed FY2016 budget requests funding for the procurement of nine new battle
force ships (i.e., ships that count against the Navy’s goal for achieving and maintaining a fleet of
306308 ships). The nine ships include two Virginia-class attack submarines, two DDG-51 class Aegis
destroyers, three Littoral Combat Ships (LCSs), one LPD-17 class amphibious ship, and one
TAO(X) class oiler. The Navy’s proposed FY2016 shipbuilding budget also requests funding for
ships that have been procured in prior fiscal years, and ships that are to be procured in future
fiscal years.
CRS Reports Tracking Legislation on Specific Navy Shipbuilding
Programs
Detailed coverage of legislative activity on certain Navy shipbuilding programs (including
funding levels, legislative provisions, and report language) can be found in the following CRS
reports:
•
CRS Report RS20643, Navy Ford (CVN-78) Class Aircraft Carrier Program:
Background and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O’Rourke.
•
CRS Report R41129, Navy Ohio Replacement (SSBN[X]) Ballistic Missile
Submarine Program: Background and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O'Rourke.
•
CRS Report RL32418, Navy Virginia (SSN-774) Class Attack Submarine
Procurement: Background and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O'Rourke.
2422
Since the Defense-Wide portion of the budget has grown from just a few percent in the 1950s and 1960s to about
15% in more recent years, including the Defense-Wide category of spending in the calculation can lead to military
department shares of the budget in the 1950s and 1960s that are somewhat more elevated compared to those in more
recent years, making it more complex to compare the military departments’ shares across the entire period of time since
the end of the World War II. For this reason, military department shares of the DOD budget cited in this statement are
calculated after excluding the Defense-Wide category. The points made in this statement, however, can still made on
the basis of a calculation that includes the Defense-Wide category.
2523
For example, from the mid-1950s to the mid-1960s, reflecting a U.S. defense strategy at the time that placed a strong
reliance on the deterrent value of nuclear weapons, the Department of the Air Force’s share of the non-Defense-Wide
DOD budget increased by several percentage points. The Department of the Air Force’s share averaged about 45% for
the 10-year period FY1956-FY1965, and peaked at more than 47% in FY1957-FY1959. As another example, for the
11-year period FY2003-FY2013, as a consequence of combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Department of
the Army’s share of the non-Defense-Wide DOD budget increased by roughly 10 percentage points. The Department of
the Army’s share during this period averaged about 39%, and peaked at more than 43% in FY2008. U.S. combat
operations in Iraq and Afghanistan during this period reflected the implementation of U.S. national strategy as
interpreted by policymakers during those years.
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•
CRS Report RL32109, Navy DDG-51 and DDG-1000 Destroyer Programs:
Background and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O'Rourke.
•
CRS Report RL33741, Navy Littoral Combat Ship (LCS)/Frigate Program:
Background and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O'Rourke.
•
CRS Report R43543, Navy LX(R) Amphibious Ship Program: Background and
Issues for Congress, by Ronald O'Rourke.
•
•
This report also covers the issue of funding for the procurement of a 12th San
Antonio (LPD-17) class amphibious ship.
CRS Report R43546, Navy TAO(X) Oiler Shipbuilding Program: Background
and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O'Rourke.
Individual Navy shipbuilding programs that are not covered in detail in the above reports are
covered in this report.
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Appendix A. Comparing Past Ship Force Levels to
Current or Potential Future Ship Force Levels
In assessing the appropriateness of the current or potential future number of ships in the Navy,
observers sometimes compare that number to historical figures for total Navy fleet size. Historical
figures for total fleet size, however, can be a problematic yardstick for assessing the
appropriateness of the current or potential future number of ships in the Navy, particularly if the
historical figures are more than a few years old, because
•
the missions to be performed by the Navy, the mix of ships that make up the
Navy, and the technologies that are available to Navy ships for performing
missions all change over time; and
•
the number of ships in the fleet in an earlier year might itself have been
inappropriate (i.e., not enough or more than enough) for meeting the Navy’s
mission requirements in that year.
Regarding the first bullet point above, the Navy, for example, reached a late-Cold War peak of
568 battle force ships at the end of FY1987,2624 and as of February 24March 25, 2015, included a total of 284
battle force ships (using the new counting rules proposed by the Navy as part of its FY2015
budget submission)275
battle force ships. The FY1987 fleet, however, was intended to meet a set of mission
requirements requirements
that focused on countering Soviet naval forces at sea during a potential multi-theater
NATO-Warsaw NATOWarsaw Pact conflict, while the FebruaryMarch 2015 fleet is intended to meet a considerably
different set
of mission requirements centered on influencing events ashore by countering both
land- and sea-basedseabased military forces of potential regional threats other than Russia, including
improved Chinese
military forces and non-state terrorist organizations. In addition, the Navy of
FY1987 differed
substantially from the FebruaryMarch 2015 fleet in areas such as profusion of
precision-guided air-deliveredairdelivered weapons, numbers of Tomahawk-capable ships, and the
sophistication of C4ISR
systems and networking capabilities.2725
In coming years, Navy missions may shift again, and the capabilities of Navy ships will likely
have changed further by that time due to developments such as more comprehensive
implementation of networking technology, increased use of ship-based unmanned vehicles, and
the potential fielding of new types of weapons such as lasers or electromagnetic rail guns.
The 568-ship fleet of FY1987 may or may not have been capable of performing its stated
missions; the 284275-ship fleet of FebruaryMarch 2015 may or may not be capable of performing its stated
missions; and a fleet years from now with a certain number of ships may or may not be capable of
26
24
Some publications have stated that the Navy reached a peak of 594 ships at the end of FY1987. This figure, however,
is the total number of active ships in the fleet, which is not the same as the total number of battle force ships. The battle
force ships figure is the number used in government discussions of the size of the Navy. In recent years, the total
number of active ships has been larger than the total number of battle force ships. For example, the Naval History and
Heritage Command (formerly the Naval Historical Center) states that as of November 16, 2001, the Navy included a
total of 337 active ships, while the Navy states that as of November 19, 2001, the Navy included a total of 317 battle
force ships. Comparing the total number of active ships in one year to the total number of battle force ships in another
year is thus an apples-to-oranges comparison that in this case overstates the decline since FY1987 in the number of
ships in the Navy. As a general rule to avoid potential statistical distortions, comparisons of the number of ships in the
Navy over time should use, whenever possible, a single counting method.
2725
C4ISR stands for command and control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.
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performing its stated missions. Given changes over time in mission requirements, ship mixes, and
technologies, however, these three issues are to a substantial degree independent of one another.
For similar reasons, trends over time in the total number of ships in the Navy are not necessarily a
reliable indicator of the direction of change in the fleet’s ability to perform its stated missions. An
increasing number of ships in the fleet might not necessarily mean that the fleet’s ability to
perform its stated missions is increasing, because the fleet’s mission requirements might be
increasing more rapidly than ship numbers and average ship capability. Similarly, a decreasing
number of ships in the fleet might not necessarily mean that the fleet’s ability to perform stated
missions is decreasing, because the fleet’s mission requirements might be declining more rapidly
than numbers of ships, or because average ship capability and the percentage of time that ships
are in deployed locations might be increasing quickly enough to more than offset reductions in
total ship numbers.
Regarding the second of the two bullet points above, it can be noted that comparisons of the size
of the fleet today with the size of the fleet in earlier years rarely appear to consider whether the
fleet was appropriately sized in those earlier years (and therefore potentially suitable as a
yardstick of comparison), even though it is quite possible that the fleet in those earlier years
might not have been appropriately sized, and even though there might have been differences of
opinion among observers at that time regarding that question. Just as it might not be prudent for
observers years from now to tacitly assume that the 289-ship Navy of September 2014 was
appropriately sized for meeting the mission requirements of 2014, even though there currently are
differences of opinion among observers on that question (as reflected, for example, in Table 7)
simply because a figure of 289 ships appears in the historical records for 2014, so, too, might it
not be prudent for observers today to tacitly assume that the number of ships of the Navy in an
earlier year was appropriate for meeting the Navy’s mission requirements that year, even though
there might have been differences of opinion among observers at that time regarding that
question, simply because the size of the Navy in that year appears in a table like Table D-1.
Previous Navy force structure plans, such as those shown in Table 1, might provide some insight
into the potential adequacy of a proposed new force-structure plan, but changes over time in
mission requirements, technologies available to ships for performing missions, and other forceplanning factors, as well as the possibility that earlier force-structure plans might not have been
appropriate for meeting the mission demands of their times, suggest that some caution should be
applied in using past force structure plans for this purpose, particularly if those past force
structure plans are more than a few years old. The Reagan-era plan for a 600-ship Navy, for
example, was designed for a Cold War set of missions focusing on countering Soviet naval forces
at sea, which is not an appropriate basis for planning the Navy today, and there was considerable
debate during those years as to the appropriateness of the 600-ship goal.28
2826
26
Navy force structure plans that predate those shown in Table 1 include the Reagan-era 600-ship plan of the 1980s,
the Base Force fleet of more than 400 ships planned during the final two years of the George H. W. Bush
Administration, the 346-ship fleet from the Clinton Administration’s 1993 Bottom-Up Review (or BUR, sometimes
also called Base Force II), and the 310-ship fleet of the Clinton Administration’s 1997 QDR. The table below
summarizes some key features of these plans.
Features of Recent Navy Force Structure Plans
Plan
Total ships
Attack submarines
(continued...)
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600-ship
~600
100
Base Force
1993 BUR
a
~450/416
80/~55c
346
45-55
1997 QDR
~305/310b
50/55d
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Appendix B. Independent Panel Assessment of 2010
QDR
The law that requires DOD to perform QDRs once every four years (10 U.S.C. 118) states that
the results of each QDR shall be assessed by an independent panel. The report of the independent
panel that assessed the 2010 QDR was released on July 29, 2010. The independent panel’s report
recommended a Navy of 346 ships, including 11 aircraft carriers and 55 attack submarines.2927 The
report stated the following, among other things:
•
“The QDR should reflect current commitments, but it must also plan effectively
for potential threats that could arise over the next 20 years.… we believe the
2010 QDR did not accord sufficient priority to the need to counter anti-access
challenges, strengthen homeland defense (including our defense against cyber
threats), and conduct post-conflict stabilization missions.” (Page 54)
•
“In this remarkable period of change, global security will still depend upon an
American presence capable of unimpeded access to all international areas of the
Pacific region. In an environment of ‘anti-access strategies,’ and assertions to
create unique ‘economic and security zones of influence,’ America‘s rightful and
historic presence will be critical. To preserve our interests, the United States will
need to retain the ability to transit freely the areas of the Western Pacific for
security and economic reasons. Our allies also depend on us to be fully present in
the Asia-Pacific as a promoter of stability and to ensure the free flow of
commerce. A robust U.S. force structure, largely rooted in maritime strategy but
including other necessary capabilities, will be essential.” (Page 51)
•
“The United States will need agile forces capable of operating against the full
range of potential contingencies. However, the need to deal with irregular and
hybrid threats will tend to drive the size and shape of ground forces for years to
(...continued)
Aircraft carriers
Surface combatants
Amphibious ships
15e
242/228g
~75h
12
~150
51i
11+1f
~124
41i
11+1f
116
36i
Source: Prepared by CRS based on DOD and U.S. Navy data.
a. Commonly referred to as 450-ship plan, but called for decreasing to 416 ships by end of FY1999.
b. Original total of about 305 ships was increased to about 310 due to increase in number of attack submarines to 55
from 50.
c. Plan originally included 80 attack submarines, but this was later reduced to about 55.
d. Plan originally included 50 attack submarines but this was later increased to 55.
e. Plus one additional aircraft carrier in the service life extension program (SLEP).
f. Eleven active carriers plus one operational reserve carrier.
g. Plan originally included 242 surface combatants but this was later reduced to 228.
h. Number needed to lift assault echelons of one Marine Expeditionary Force (MEF) plus one Marine Expeditionary
Brigade (MEB).
i. Number needed to lift assault echelons of 2.5 MEBs. Changing numbers needed to meet this goal reflect in part
changes in the design and capabilities of amphibious ships.
2927
Stephen J. Hadley and William J. Perry, co-chairmen, et al, The QDR in Perspective: Meeting America’s National
Security Needs In the 21st Century, The Final Report of the Quadrennial Defense Review Independent Panel,
Washington, 2010, Figure 3-2 on page 58.
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come, whereas the need to continue to be fully present in Asia and the Pacific and
other areas of interest will do the same for naval and air forces.” (Page 55)
•
“The force structure in the Asia-Pacific needs to be increased. In order to
preserve U.S. interests, the United States will need to retain the ability to transit
freely the areas of the Western Pacific for security and economic reasons. The
United States must be fully present in the Asia-Pacific region to protect American
lives and territory, ensure the free flow of commerce, maintain stability, and
defend our allies in the region. A robust U.S. force structure, one that is largely
rooted in maritime strategy and includes other necessary capabilities, will be
essential.” (Page 66)
•
“Force structure must be strengthened in a number of areas to address the need to
counter anti-access challenges, strengthen homeland defense (including defense
against cyber threats), and conduct post-conflict stabilization missions: First, as a
Pacific power, the U.S. presence in Asia has underwritten the regional stability
that has enabled India and China to emerge as rising economic powers. The
United States should plan on continuing that role for the indefinite future. The
Panel remains concerned that the QDR force structure may not be sufficient to
assure others that the United States can meet its treaty commitments in the face
of China’s increased military capabilities. Therefore, we recommend an increased
priority on defeating anti-access and area-denial threats. This will involve
acquiring new capabilities, and, as Secretary Gates has urged, developing
innovative concepts for their use. Specifically, we believe the United States must
fully fund the modernization of its surface fleet. We also believe the United
States must be able to deny an adversary sanctuary by providing persistent
surveillance, tracking, and rapid engagement with high-volume precision strike.
That is why the Panel supports an increase in investment in long-range strike
systems and their associated sensors. In addition, U.S. forces must develop and
demonstrate the ability to operate in an information-denied environment.” (Pages
59-60)
•
“To compete effectively, the U.S. military must continue to develop new
conceptual approaches to dealing with operational challenges, like the Capstone
Concept for Joint Operations (CCJO). The Navy and Air Force‘s effort to
develop an Air-Sea Battle concept is one example of an approach to deal with the
growing anti-access challenge. It will be necessary to invest in modernized
capabilities to make this happen. The Chief of Naval Operations and Chief of
Staff of the Air Force deserve support in this effort, and the Panel recommends
the other military services be brought into the concept when appropriate.” (Page
51; a similar passage appears on page 67)
In recommending a Navy of 346 ships, the independent panel’s report cited the 1993 Bottom-Up
Review (BUR) of U.S. defense plans and policies. Table B-1 compares the Navy’s 306308-ship goal
of March 20122015 to the 346-ship Navy recommended in the 1993 BUR (as detailed partly in
subsequent Navy testimony and publications) and the ship force levels recommended in the
independent panel report.
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Table B-1. Comparison of Navy’s 306308-ship goal, Navy Plan from 1993 BUR, and Navy
Plan from 2010 QDR Review Panel
Ship Type
SSBNs
Navy’s 306308-ship goal of
March 20122015
Bottom-Up Review
(BUR) (1993)
2010 QDR
Independent
Review Panel
(July 2010)
12-14
18
14
(SSBN force was later
reduced to 14 as a result of
the 1994 Nuclear Posture
Review)
SSGNs
0-4
0
4
(SSGN program did not yet
exist)
SSNs
~48
45 to 55
55
(55 in FY99, with a long-term
goal of about 45)
Aircraft carriers
Surface combatants
11 active
11
11 active + 1
operational/reserve
11 active
~145Surface combatants
140
124
n/a
(114 active + 10 frigates in
Naval Reserve Force; a total
of 110-116 active ships was
also cited)
Cruisers and destroyers
Frigates
~90
88
n/a
n/a
0
n/a
n/a
0
n/a
(to be replaced by LCSs)
LCSs
~55Frigates (modified LCSs)
20
n/a
n/a
LCSs
32
0
n/a
(LCS program did not exist)
Amphibious ships
~3234
41
(30 operational ships
needed to lift 2.0 MEBs)
(Enough to lift 2.5 MEBs)
0
26
(to be replaced by LCSs)
(LCS program did not exist)
CLF ships
~29
43
n/a
Support ships
~3334
22
n/a
~306308
346
346
Dedicated mine
warfare ships
TOTAL ships
n/a
n/a
(numbers above add to
331-341)a
Source: Table prepared by CRS. Sources for 1993 Bottom-Up Review: Department of Defense, Report on the
Bottom-Up Review, October 1993, Figure 7 on page 28; Department of the Navy, Highlights of the FY 1995
Department of the Navy Budget, February 1994, p. 1; Department of the Navy, Force 2001, A Program Guide to the
U.S. Navy, 1994 edition, p. 15; Statement of VADM T. Joseph Lopez, U.S. Navy, Deputy Chief of Naval
Operations (Resources, Warfare Requirements & Assessments), Testimony to the Military Forces and Personnel
Subcommittee of the House Armed Services Committee, March 22, 1994, pp. 2-5. Source for independent
panel report: Stephen J. Hadley and William J. Perry, co-chairmen, et al., The QDR in Perspective: Meeting
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America’s National Security Needs In the 21st Century, The Final Report of the Quadrennial Defense Review Independent
Panel, Washington, 2010, Figure 3-2 on pages 58-59.
Notes: n/a is not addressed in the report. SSBN is nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine; SSGN is
nuclear-powered cruise missile and special operations forces submarine; SSN is nuclear-powered attack
submarine; LCS is Littoral Combat Ship; MPF(F) is Maritime Prepositioning Force (Future) ship; CLF is combat
logistics force (i.e., resupply) ship; MEB is Marine Expeditionary Brigade.
a.
The Navy testified in 1994 that the planned number was adjusted from 346 to 330 to reflect reductions in
numbers of tenders and early retirements of some older amphibious ships.
In a letter dated August 11, 2010, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates provided his comments on
the independent panel’s report. The letter stated in part:
I completely agree with the Panel that a strong navy is essential; however, I disagree with the
Panel’s recommendation that DoD should establish the 1993 Bottom Up Review’s (BUR’s)
fleet of 346 ships as the objective target. That number was a simple projection of the thenplanned size of [the] Navy in FY 1999, not a reflection of 21st century, steady-state
requirements. The fleet described in the 2010 QDR report, with its overall target of 313 to
321 ships, has roughly the same number of aircraft carriers, nuclear-powered attack
submarines, surface combatants, mine warfare vessels, and amphibious ships as the larger
BUR fleet. The main difference between the two fleets is in the numbers of combat logistics,
mobile logistics, and support ships. Although it is true that the 2010 fleet includes fewer of
these ships, they are all now more efficiently manned and operated by the Military Sealift
Command and meet all of DoD’s requirements….
I agree with the Panel’s general conclusion that DoD ought to enhance its overall posture and
capabilities in the Asia-Pacific region. As I outlined in my speech at the Naval War College
in April 2009, “to carry out the missions we may face in the future… we will need numbers,
speed, and the ability to operate in shallow waters.” So as the Air-Sea battle concept
development reaches maturation, and as DoD’s review of global defense posture continues, I
will be looking for ways to meet plausible security threats while emphasizing sustained
forward presence – particularly in the Pacific.30
3028
28
Letter dated August 11, 2010, from Secretary of Defense Robert Gates to the chairmen of the House and Senate
Armed Services and Appropriations Committees, pp. 3 and 4. The ellipsis in the second paragraph appears in the letter.
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Appendix C. U.S. Strategy and the Size and
Structure of U.S. Naval Forces
This appendix presents some observations on the relationship between U.S. strategy and the size
and structure of U.S. naval forces that can form part of the context for assessing Navy force
structure goals and shipbuilding plans.3129
Strategic considerations that can be considered in assessing Navy force structure goals and
shipbuilding plans include, among other things, the U.S. strategic rebalancing toward the AsiaPacific region,3230 China’s modernization of its maritime military capabilities,3331 and requests from
U.S. regional combatant commanders (COCOMs) for forward-deployed U.S. naval forces that the
Navy has testified would require a Navy of about 450 ships to fully meet.3432
More broadly, from a strategic perspective it can be noted that that U.S. naval forces, while not
inexpensive, give the United States the ability to convert the world’s oceans—a global commons
that covers more than two-thirds of the planet’s surface—into a medium of maneuver and
operations for projecting U.S. power ashore and otherwise defending U.S. interests around the
world. The ability to use the world’s oceans in this manner—and to deny other countries the use
of the world’s oceans for taking actions against U.S. interests—constitutes an immense
asymmetric advantage for the United States. This point would be less important if less of the
world were covered by water, or if the oceans were carved into territorial blocks, like the land.
Most of the world, however, is covered by water, and most of those waters are international
waters, where naval forces can operate freely. The point, consequently, is not that U.S. naval
forces are intrinsically special or privileged—it is that they have a certain value simply as a
consequence of the physical and legal organization of the planet.
An additional point that can be noted in relating U.S. naval forces to U.S. national strategy is that
most of the world’s people, resources, and economic activity are located not in the Western
Hemisphere, but in the other hemisphere, particularly Eurasia. In response to this basic feature of
world geography, U.S. policymakers for the last several decades have chosen to pursue, as a key
element of U.S. national strategy, a goal of preventing the emergence of a regional hegemon in
one part of Eurasia or another, on the grounds that such a hegemon could represent a
concentration of power strong enough to threaten core U.S. interests by, for example, denying the
United States access to some of the other hemisphere’s resources and economic activity. Although
U.S. policymakers do not often state this key national strategic goal explicitly in public, U.S.
3129
This appendix adapts material originally presented in Statement of Ronald O’Rourke, Specialist in Naval Affairs,
Congressional Research Service, Before the House Armed Services Committee Subcommittee on Seapower and
Projection Forces on the Navy’s FY2014 30-Year Shipbuilding Plan, October 23, 2013, pp. 1, 17-18.
3230
For more on the strategic rebalancing, see CRS Report R42146, Assessing the January 2012 Defense Strategic
Guidance (DSG): In Brief, by Catherine Dale and Pat Towell; and CRS Report R42448, Pivot to the Pacific? The
Obama Administration’s “Rebalancing” Toward Asia, coordinated by Mark E. Manyin.
3331
For more on China’s modernization of its maritime military capabilities, see CRS Report RL33153, China Naval
Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O'Rourke.
3432
Navy officials testified in March 2014 that a Navy of 450 ships would be required to fully meet COCOM requests for
forward-deployed Navy forces. (Spoken testimony of Admiral Jonathan Greenert at a March 12, 2014, hearing before
the House Armed Services Committee on the Department of the Navy’s proposed FY2015 budget, as shown in
transcript of hearing.)
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military operations in recent decades—both wartime operations and day-to-day operations—have
been carried out in no small part in support of this key goal.
The U.S. goal of preventing the emergence of a regional hegemon in one part of Eurasia or
another is a major reason why the U.S. military is structured with force elements that enable it to
cross broad expanses of ocean and air space and then conduct sustained, large-scale military
operations upon arrival. Force elements associated with this goal include, among other things, an
Air Force with significant numbers of long-range bombers, long-range surveillance aircraft, longrange airlift aircraft, and aerial refueling tankers, and a Navy with significant numbers aircraft
carriers, nuclear-powered attack submarines, large surface combatants, large amphibious ships,
and underway replenishment ships.
The United States is the only country in the world that designs its military to cross broad
expanses of ocean and air space and then conduct sustained, large-scale military operations upon
arrival. The other countries in the Western Hemisphere do not design their forces to do this
because they cannot afford to, and because the United States is, in effect, doing it for them.
Countries in the other hemisphere do not design their forces to do this for the very basic reason
that they are already in the other hemisphere, and consequently instead spend their defense
money on forces that are tailored largely for influencing events in their own local region.
The fact that the United States designs its military to do something that other countries do not
design their forces to do—cross broad expanses of ocean and air space and then conduct
sustained, large-scale military operations upon arrival—can be important to keep in mind when
comparing the U.S. military to the militaries of other nations. For example, in observing that the
U.S. Navy has 11 aircraft carriers while other countries have no more than one or two, it can be
noted other countries do not need a significant number of aircraft carriers because, unlike the
United States, they are not designing their forces to cross broad expanses of ocean and air space
and then conduct sustained, large-scale military operations upon arrival.
As another example, it is sometimes noted, in assessing the adequacy of U.S. naval forces, that
U.S. naval forces are equal in tonnage to the next dozen or more navies combined, and that most
of those next dozen or more navies are the navies of U.S. allies. Those other fleets, however, are
mostly of Eurasian countries, which do not design their forces to cross to the other side of the
world and then conduct sustained, large-scale military operations upon arrival. The fact that the
U.S. Navy is much bigger than allied navies does not necessarily prove that U.S. naval forces are
either sufficient or excessive; it simply reflects the differing and generally more limited needs that
U.S. allies have for naval forces. (It might also reflect an underinvestment by some of those allies
to meet even their more limited naval needs.)
Countries have differing needs for naval and other military forces. The United States, as a country
located in the Western Hemisphere with a goal of preventing the emergence of a regional
hegemon in one part of Eurasia or another, has defined a need for naval and other military forces
that is quite different from the needs of allies that are located in Eurasia. The sufficiency of U.S.
naval and other military forces consequently is best assessed not through comparison to the
militaries of other countries, but against U.S. strategic goals.
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Appendix D. Size of the Navy and Navy
Shipbuilding Rate
Size of the Navy
Table D-1 shows the size of the Navy in terms of total number of ships since FY1948; the
numbers shown in the table reflect changes over time in the rules specifying which ships count
toward the total. Differing counting rules result in differing totals, and for certain years, figures
reflecting more than one set of counting rules are available. Figures in the table for FY1978 and
subsequent years reflect the battle force ships counting method, which is the set of counting rules
established in the early 1980s for public policy discussions of the size of the Navy.
As shown in the table, the total number of battle force ships in the Navy reached a late-Cold War
peak of 568 at the end of FY1987 and began declining thereafter.3533 The Navy fell below 300
battle force ships in August 2003 and as of February 24March 25, 2015, included 284275 battle force ships.
As discussed in Appendix A, historical figures for total fleet size might not be a reliable yardstick
for assessing the appropriateness of proposals for the future size and structure of the Navy,
particularly if the historical figures are more than a few years old, because the missions to be
performed by the Navy, the mix of ships that make up the Navy, and the technologies that are
available to Navy ships for performing missions all change over time, and because the number of
ships in the fleet in an earlier year might itself have been inappropriate (i.e., not enough or more
than enough) for meeting the Navy’s mission requirements in that year.
For similar reasons, trends over time in the total number of ships in the Navy are not necessarily a
reliable indicator of the direction of change in the fleet’s ability to perform its stated missions. An
increasing number of ships in the fleet might not necessarily mean that the fleet’s ability to
perform its stated missions is increasing, because the fleet’s mission requirements might be
increasing more rapidly than ship numbers and average ship capability. Similarly, a decreasing
number of ships in the fleet might not necessarily mean that the fleet’s ability to perform stated
missions is decreasing, because the fleet’s mission requirements might be declining more rapidly
than numbers of ships, or because average ship capability and the percentage of time that ships
are in deployed locations might be increasing quickly enough to more than offset reductions in
total ship numbers.
35
33
Some publications have stated that the Navy reached a peak of 594 ships at the end of FY1987. This figure, however,
is the total number of active ships in the fleet, which is not the same as the total number of battle force ships. The battle
force ships figure is the number used in government discussions of the size of the Navy. In recent years, the total
number of active ships has been larger than the total number of battle force ships. For example, the Naval History and
Heritage Command (formerly the Naval Historical Center) states that as of November 16, 2001, the Navy included a
total of 337 active ships, while the Navy states that as of November 19, 2001, the Navy included a total of 317 battle
force ships. Comparing the total number of active ships in one year to the total number of battle force ships in another
year is thus an apples-to-oranges comparison that in this case overstates the decline since FY1987 in the number of
ships in the Navy. As a general rule to avoid potential statistical distortions, comparisons of the number of ships in the
Navy over time should use, whenever possible, a single counting method.
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Table D-1. Total Number of Ships in the Navy Since FY1948
FYa
Number
FYa
Number
FYa
Number
FYa
Number
1948
737
1970
769
1992
466
FY2014
289
1949
690
1971
702
1993
435
1950
634
1972
654
1994
391
1951
980
1973
584
1995
373
1952
1,097
1974
512
1996
356
1953
1,122
1975
496
1997
354
1954
1,113
1976
476
1998
333
1955
1,030
1977
464
1999
317
1956
973
1978
468
2000
318
1957
967
1979
471
2001
316
1958
890
1980
477
2002
313
1959
860
1981
490
2003
297
1960
812
1982
513
2004
291
1961
897
1983
514
2005
282
1962
959
1984
524
2006
281
1963
916
1985
541
2007
279
1964
917
1986
556
2008
282
1965
936
1987
568
2009
285
1966
947
1988
565
2010
288
1967
973
1989
566
2011
284
1968
976
1990
547
2012
287
1969
926
1991
526
2013
285
Source: Compiled by CRS using U.S. Navy data. Numbers shown reflect changes over time in the rules
specifying which ships count toward the total. Figures for FY1978 and subsequent years reflect the battle force
ships counting method, which is the set of counting rules established in the early 1980s for public policy
discussions of the size of the Navy.
a.
Data for earlier years in the table may be for the end of the calendar year (or for some other point during
the year), rather than for the end of the fiscal year.
Shipbuilding Rate
Table D-2 shows past (FY1982-FY2014FY2015) and requested or programmed (FY2015-FY2019FY2016-FY2020) rates
of Navy ship procurement.
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Table D-2. Battle Force Ships Procured or Requested/Programmed, FY1982-FY2020
(Procured FY1982-FY2015; requested or programmed FY2016-FY2020)
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
17
14
16
19
20
17
15
19
15
11
11
7
4
4
5
4
5
5
6
6
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
6
5
7
8
4a
5a
3a
8
7
10
11b
11c11
8
8
9
10
10
9
10
Source: CRS compilation based on Navy budget data and examination of defense authorization and
appropriation committee and conference reports for each fiscal year. The table excludes non-battle force ships
that do not count toward the 306308-ship goal, such as certain sealift and prepositioning ships operated by the
Military Sealift Command and oceanographic ships operated by agencies such as the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
a.
The totals shown for FY2006, FY2007, and FY2008, reflect the cancellation two LCSs funded in FY2006,
another two LCSs funded in FY2007, and an LCS funded in FY2008.
b.
The total shown for FY2012 includes two JHSVs—one that was included in the Navy’s FY2012 budget
submission, and one that was included in the Army’s FY2012 budget submission. Until FY2012, JHSVs were
being procured by both the Navy and the Army. The Army was to procure its fifth and final JHSV in
FY2012, and this ship was included in the Army’s FY2012 budget submission. In May 2011, the Navy and
Army signed a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) transferring the Army’s JHSVs to the Navy. In the
FY2012 DOD Appropriations Act (Division A of H.R. 2055/P.L. 112-74 of December 23, 2011), the JHSV
that was in the Army’s FY2012 budget submission was funded through the Shipbuilding and Conversion,
Navy (SCN) appropriation account, along with the JHSV that the Navy had included in its FY0212 budget
submission. The four JHSVs that were procured through the Army’s budget prior to FY2012, however, are
not included in the annual totals shown in this table.
c.
Figure shown does not reflect potential quantity reduction resulting from March 1, 2013, sequester on
FY2013 funding.
Author Contact Information
Ronald O'Rourke
Specialist in Naval Affairs
rorourke@crs.loc.gov, 7-7610
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