U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of
Changing Oil Prices
James K. Jackson
Specialist in International Trade and Finance
January 13February 28, 2011
Congressional Research Service
7-5700
www.crs.gov
RS22204
CRS Report for Congress
Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress
U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
Summary
Petroleum prices rose sharply in the first half of 2008, at one time reaching more than $140 per
barrel of crude oil. After July 2008, however, petroleum prices and import volumes fell at a
historically rapid pace; in January 2009, prices of crude oil fell below $40 per barrel. Since then,
crude oil prices have nearlymore than doubled, while the average monthly volume of imports of energyrelated petroleum products has risen slightly, year over year, reflecting the positive, albeit slow,
growth in the rate of economic activity. In addition to the slight rise in the volume of crude oil
imports, the rise in the cost of energy imports through eleven months of 2010 could add more
thanin 2010 added about $80 billion to the nation’s
trade deficit in 2010 over that experienced in 2009. Turmoil in the Middle East caused petroleum
prices to rise sharply in the first two months of 2011 and could add $100 billion to the U.S. trade
deficit in 2011. The increase The increase
in energy import prices is pushing up the price of energy to
consumers and could spur some
elements of the public to pressure the 112th Congress to provide
relief to households that are
struggling to meet their current expenses. With oil prices rising to
over $90100 per barrel in early
2011, the International Energy Agency cautioned that the rising price
of oil was becoming a threat
to the global economic recovery. This report provides an estimate of
the initial impact of the
changing oil prices on the nation’s merchandise trade deficit.
Congressional Research Service
U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
Contents
Background ................................................................................................................................1
Issues for Congress .....................................................................................................................6
Figures
Figure 1. Quantity of U.S. Imports of Energy-Related Petroleum Products ..................................3
Figure 2. Value of U.S. Imports of Energy-Related Petroleum Products .......................................4
Figure 3. U.S. Import Price of Crude Oil .....................................................................................6
Tables
Table 1. Summary Data of U.S. Imports of Energy-Related Petroleum Products, Including
Oil (not seasonally adjusted) ....................................................................................................2
Table 2. U.S. Imports of Energy-Related Petroleum Products, Including Crude Oil (not
seasonally adjusted) .................................................................................................................4
Contacts
Author Contact Information ........................................................................................................7
Congressional Research Service
U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
Background
According to data published by the Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce, 1 the prices
of petroleum products over the first half of 2008 rose sharply, generally rising considerably faster
than the change in demand for those products, before falling at a historic rate. After falling each
month between August 2008 and February 2009, average petroleum prices reversed course and
rose by 85% between February and December 2009, climbing to nearly $80 per barrel at times.
Through eleven months of In
2010, petroleum prices reached a peak average price of about $77 per
barrel in April before
falling to around $72 per barrel in July 2010. Average prices dropped from
May to July, one of
only three times average monthly petroleum prices have declined since
January 2009. In November
December 2010, petroleum import prices averaged nearly $7780 per barrel and
continued to
increase, reaching over $90100 per barrel at times in Februaryin January 2011. Oil futures contracts indicate,
however, that crude oil prices are expected to peak at the $90100 per barrel range before falling to
under $80
90 per barrel by mid-summerfall. Turmoil in the Middle East, however, could have a significant
impact on the course of oil prices for the foreseeable future. As a result of changing petroleum
prices, the price changes in
imported energy-related petroleum products worsened the U.S. trade
deficit in 2006-2008, 2010, and likely, 2007, and
2008, and will again in 20102011. Energy-related petroleum products is a
term used by the U.S.
Census Bureau that includes crude oil, petroleum preparations, and
liquefied propane and butane
gas. Crude oil comprises the largest share by far within this broad
category of energy-related
imports.
In 2009, the slowdown in the rate of growth in the U.S. economy reduced the amount of energy
the country imported and helped push down world energy prices. As economic growth has
improved, energy imports have increased and energy prices have risen. In isolation from other
events, lower energy prices tend to aid the U.S. economy, which makes it a more attractive
destination for foreign investment. Such capital inflows, however, place upward pressure on the
dollar against a broad range of other currencies. To the extent that the additions to the
merchandise trade deficit are returned to the U.S. economy as payment for additional U.S. exports
or to acquire such assets as securities or U.S. businesses, the U.S. trade deficit could be mitigated
further.
Summary data from the Census Bureau for the change in the volume, or quantity, of energyrelated petroleum imports and the change in the price, or the value, of those imports for 2009 and
for 20102010 and
estimated values for 2011 are presented in Table 1. The data indicate that during eleven months of 2010, the
United 2010, the United
States imported about 3.94.3 billion barrels of energy-related petroleum products, valued at
$294 $323
billion. Energy-related imports for this eleven-month period were up 0.13% in volume terms
from from
the same period in 2009 and cost 2632% more than similar imports during the same period in
2009 2009.
Estimates for 2011 indicate that with an average price per barrel of $100, U.S. imported
petroleum costs will rise by over $100 billion to $428 billion.
1
U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Report FT900, U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services,
Table 17, January 13February 11, 2011. The report and supporting tables are available at http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/
Press-Release/current_press_release/ftdpress.pdf.
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U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
Table 1. Summary Data of U.S. Imports of Energy-Related Petroleum Products,
Including Oil (not seasonally adjusted)
January through NovemberDecember
2009
2010
Quantity
(thousands of
barrels)
Value ($
thousands)
Quantity
(thousands of
barrels)
% change
2009 to
2010
Value ($
thousands)
% change
2009 to
2010
Total energyrelated
petroleum
products
3,915,751
$219,999,955
3,918,710
0.1%
$294,424,143
33.8%
Crude oil
3,035,470
$168,283,047
3,095,124
2.0%
$229,640,165
36.5%
January through December
2009
20104,266,007
$245,690,140
4,278,476
0.3%
$323,628,470
31.7%
Crude oil
3,314,787
$188,711,775
3,377,701
1.9%
$252183,153
33.6%
January through December
2010
2011
(Actual values)
(Estimated values)
Quantity
(thousands of
barrels)
Value ($
thousands)
Quantity
(thousands of
barrels)
% change
2009 to
2010
Value ($
thousands)
% change
2009 to
2010
Total energyrelated
petroleum
products
4,266,007
$245,690,140
4,269,231
0.1%
$328,805,108
33.8%
Crude oil
3,314,787
$188,711,775
3,379,930
2.0%
$257,517,343,278,476
$323,628,470
4,,278,426
0.3%
$427,847,600
33.8%
Crude oil
3,377,701
$252,183,153
3,379,930
1.9%
$337,770,100
36.5%
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Report FT900, U.S. International Trade in Goods
and Services, Table 17, January 13February 11, 2011.
Note: Estimates for January through December 2010 were developed by CRS from data through November
2010 and data through 2009 published by the Census Bureau using a straight line extrapolation.
The data also indicate that the United States imported 4.3 billion barrels of total energy-related
petroleum products in 20092010, valued at $246252 billion, compared with a total value of $439246 billion in
20082009. Also, in 2009, the quantity of energy-related petroleum imports fell by 4.0% compared with
the comparable period in 2008; crude oil imports also fell by 2.7% from the same period in 2008.
Year-over-year, the average value of energy-related petroleum products imports fell by 44% in
2009, while the average value of crude oil imports fell by 45%. As Figure 1 shows, imports of
energy-related petroleum products can vary sharply on a monthly basis. In 2009, imports of
energy-related petroleum products averaged about 355 million barrels a month. Through eleven
months ofIn 2010, such
imports averaged 356 million barrels aper month.
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U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
Figure 1. Quantity of U.S. Imports of Energy-Related Petroleum Products
$440
Millions of barrels
$420
$400
$380
$360
$340
$320
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
$300
2008
2009
2010
Source: Department of Commerce.
In value terms, energy-related imports fell from a total value of $439 billion in 2008 to $245
billion in 2009, or a decrease of 44%, to account for about 16% of the value of total U.S.
merchandise imports. Energy prices rose sharply in 2007 and continued rising from January
through July 2008, not following previous trends of falling during the winter months. As Figure
2 shows, the cost of U.S. imports of energy-related petroleum products rose from about $17
billion per month in early 2007 to $53 billion a month in July 2008, but fell to $13.6 billion a
month in February 2009, reflecting a drop in the price and in the volume of imported oil. The
average price of imported oil in NovemberDecember 2010 was up 5.89% from the average price in
November December
2009. The value of total energy imports in NovemberDecember 2010 rose slightly from October
November 2010 to $25
$29.2 billion and up from $23.025.7 billion in NovemberDecember 2009, as indicated in Table 2.
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U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
Figure 2.Value of U.S. Imports of Energy-Related Petroleum Products
$45
$40
Billions of dollars
$35
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
2008
2009
December
October
November
September
July
August
May
June
April
March
January
February
December
October
November
September
July
August
May
June
April
March
January
February
December
October
November
September
July
August
May
June
April
$5
2010
Source: Department of Commerce.
As a result of the drop in the overall value of energy-related imports in 2009, the trade deficit in
energy-related imports amounted to $204 billion, down by nearly half from the $386 billion
recorded in 2008, and accounted for 40% of the total U.S. trade deficit of $517 billion for the
year. In the eleven-month period of January-November 2010, the rise in oil prices, year over year,
combined with a slight increase in energy
imports, pushed up the overall value of energy imports,
which accounted for 4041% of the total
merchandise trade deficit. This share is comparable to the
share of the trade deficit experienced
during the same period in 2009. In NovemberDecember 2010, the
share of the U.S. trade deficit arising
from energy imports was 39%, down47%, up sharply from the 4239% share
recorded in NovemberDecember 2010.
Table 2. U.S. Imports of Energy-Related Petroleum Products, Including Crude Oil
(not seasonally adjusted)
Total energy-related
petroleum productsa
Period
Quantity
(thousands
of barrels)
Value
($
thousands)
Crude oil
Quantity
(thousands of
barrels)
Thousands
of barrels
per day
(average)
Value
($
thousands)
Unit price
(dollars)
2009
Jan.-Dec.
4,266,007
$245,690,140
3,314,787
9,082
$188,711,775
$56.93
Jan.-Nov.
3,915,751
$219,999,955
3,035,470
9,088
$168,283,047
55.44
January
405,890
16,398,894
301,069
9,712
12,000,941
39.86
February
335,510
13,586,823
254,504
9,089
9,962,489
39.14
March
378,997
16,084,729
291,514
9,404
12,033,939
41.28
April
366,401
17,354,644
290,973
9,699
13,582,121
46.68
May
337,118
17,682,576
261,296
8,429
13,404,650
51.30
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U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
Total energy-related
petroleum productsa
Crude oil
Quantity
(thousands
of barrels)
Value
($
thousands)
Quantity
(thousands of
barrels)
Thousands
of barrels
per day
(average)
Value
($
thousands)
April
366,401
17,354,644
290,973
9,699
13,582,121
46.68
May
337,118
17,682,576
261,296
8,429
13,404,650
51.30
June
371,612
22,515,808
282,057
9,402
16,691,240
59.18
July
375,723
23,642,907
294,634
9,504
18,421,260
62.52
August
339,446
22,459,799
268,878
8,673
17,417,873
64.78
September
361,561
24,845,000
286,200
9,540
19,511,044
68.17
October
328,767
22,416,890
258,420
8,336
17,410,475
67.37
November
314,726
23,011,887
245,925
8,198
17,847,016
72.57
December
350,256
25,690,185
279,317
9,010
20,428,728
73.14
Period
Unit price
(dollars)
2010
Jan.-Nov.
3,918,710
294,424,143
3,095,124
9,267
229,640,165
74.19Dec.
4,278,476
323,628,470
3,377,701
9,254
252,183,153
74.66
January
329,246
24,681,956
245,273
7,912
18,122,185
73.89
February
313,293
23,040,666
243,305
8,689
17,742,303
72.92
March
369,473
27,809,434
299,473
9,660
22,258,328
74.32
April
368,731
28,828,138
294,118
9,804
22,685,592
77.13
May
355,344
27,597,395
280,029
9,033
21,542,988
76.93
June
382,177
28,015,041
311,932
10,398
22,595,686
72.44
July
388,659
28,430,320
311,724
10,056
22,473,270
72.09
August
392,801
29,180,574
306,909
9,900
22,548,205
73.47
September
364,678
26,623,444
289,694
9,656
20,961,556
72.36
October
330,752
24,992,682
254,479
8,209
18,878,078
74.18
November
323,557
25,224,494
258,188
8,606
19,831,974
76.81
December
359,766
29,204,327
262,577
9,115
22,542,988
79.78
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Report FT900, U.S. International Trade in Goods
and Services, Table 17, January 13February 11, 2011.
a.
Energy-related petroleum products is a term used by the Census Bureau and includes crude oil, petroleum
preparations, and liquefied propane and butane gas.
Crude oil comprises the largest share of energy-related petroleum products imports. According to
Census Bureau data,2 imports of crude oil fell from an average of 9.8 million barrels of crude oil
imports per day in 2008 to an average of 9.1 million barrels per day in 2009, or a decrease of 7%.
In NovemberDecember 2010, such imports averaged 8.69.1 million barrels per day, or an increase of 5.0%
over 9.0% over
the volume of such imports recorded in NovemberDecember 2009. From January 2008 to June 2008,
the the
average price of crude oil increased from $84 per barrel to $117 per barrel, or an increase of
2
Report FT900, U.S. International Transactions in Goods and Services, Table 17, January 13, 2011.
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U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
39%,
as shown in Figure 3. As a result, the value of U.S. crude oil imports rose from about $27
billion billion
a month in January 2008 to $35 billion a month in June 2008.
Figure 3. U.S. Import Price of Crude Oil
$125
$115
Dollars per barrel
$105
$95
$85
$75
$65
$55
$45
October
November
September
July
August
May
June
April
March
January
February
December
October
November
September
July
2009
August
May
June
April
March
January
2008
February
December
October
November
September
July
August
May
June2
Report FT900, U.S. International Transactions in Goods and Services, Table 17, February 11, 2011.
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U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
Figure 3. U.S. Import Price of Crude Oil
$125
$115
Dollars per barrel
$105
$95
$85
$75
$65
$55
$45
2008
2009
August
September
October
November
December
March
April
May
June
July
September
October
November
December
January
February
April
May
June
July
August
October
November
December
January
February
March
May
June
July
August
September
April
$35
2010
Source: Department of Commerce.
Data for 2009 indicate that a number of factors, primarily the economic recession, had a large
impact on pushing down oil prices in the first three months. As economic growth picked up, the
higher demand tended to raise pressure on oil prices, which rose through the end of the year. The
rise in oil prices and an increase in the volumes of oil imports during the period combined to raise
the overall cost of imported energy. At times, crude oil traded for nearly $148 per barrel in July
2008, indicating that the cost of energy imports would have a significant impact on the overall
costs of U.S. imports and on the size of the U.S. trade deficit. Since those record prices, the price
per barrel of imported crude oil fell to under $40 per barrel at times in January and February
2009. For the year 2009, the imported volume of energy-related petroleum products fell by 44%
compared with 2008, due in large part to a slowdown in economic activity. At an average price of
$56 per barrel in 2009, compared with an average price of $95 per barrel in 2008, energy-related
imports fell by nearly $130 billion as a component in the overall U.S. trade deficit. For 2010, the
total cost of energy imports could rise to about $300323 billion at an average price of $7675 per barrel
and account for nearly half41% of the annual trade deficit.
Issues for Congress
The rise in the prices of energy imports experienced since early 2000 through January 2011 could
February 2011
could have a significant impact on the annual U.S. trade deficit in 2010 and 2011, should those price
increases stick, or run even higher. The rise in energy prices may well affect the U.S. rate of
inflation and could have a slightly negative impact on the rate of economic growth in 20102011.
Various factors, dominated by the rate of economic growth in the United States and Western
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U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
Europe, could combinepolitical turmoil in the Middle East and the rate of economic
growth in the United States and Western Europe, have combined to push up the cost of energy
imports, which will have a slightly negative
impact on the pace of the economic recovery.
Typically, energy import prices have followed a
cyclical pattern that has caused energy prices to rise in the summer and decline in the winter. The
as energy prices rose in the
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U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
summer and declined in the winter. The slowdown in the rate of economic growth in the United
States and elsewhere in 2009 sharply
reduced the demand for energy imports and caused oil
prices to tumble from the heights they
reached in July 2008. An important factor that often affects
crude oil prices is the impact Atlantic
hurricanes have on the production of crude oil in the Gulf
of Mexico.
The return to a positive rate of economic growth will continue to placehas placed upward pressure on the
prices of
energy imports and contributecontributed to the nation’s merchandise trade deficit. Some of the
impact of
this deficit could be offset if some of the dollars that accrue abroad are returned to the
U.S.
economy through increased purchases of U.S. goods and services or through purchases of
such such
other assets as corporate securities or acquisitions of U.S. businesses. Some of the return in
dollars likely will come through sovereign wealth funds, or funds controlled and managed by
foreign governments, as foreign exchange reserves boost the dollar holdings of such funds. Such
investments likely will add to concerns about the national security implications of foreign
acquisitions of U.S. firms, especially by foreign governments, and to concerns about the growing
share of outstanding U.S. Treasury securities that are owned by foreigners.
It is likely that the economy will again face high and rising prices for imported energy products as
national economies recover to a more robust rate of economic growth. It is possible for the
Social turmoil in the Middle East is creating uncertainty in the oil markets and pushing up prices.
The duration and intensity of the turmoil likely will continue to be the most important factor
driving oil prices. As was the case in 2008, high and sustained oil prices likely will have a
detrimental effect on the pace of economic growth in many parts of the world. It is possible for
the economy to adjust to the higher prices of energy imports by improving its energy efficiency,
finding alternative sources of energy, or searching out additional supplies of energy. There may
well be increased pressure applied toHigher oil
prices may well cause consumers to increase pressure on Congress to assist in this process. For
Congress, the increase
in the nation’s merchandise trade deficit could add to existing inflationary
pressures and
complicate efforts to reduce the governments’ budget deficit and to stimulate the
stimulate the economy should the rate of economic growth flatten out. In
stall. In particular, Congress, through its direct role
in making economic policy and its oversight role over
the Federal Reserve, could face the
dilemma of rising inflation, which generally is treated by
raising interest rates to tighten credit,
and a slow rate of economic growth, which is usually
addressed by lowering interest rates to
stimulate investment. A sharp rise in the trade deficit may
also add to pressures for Congress to
examine the causes of the deficit and to address the
underlying factors that are generating that
deficit. In addition, the rise in prices of energy imports
could add to concerns about the nation’s
reliance on foreign supplies for energy imports and add
impetus to examining the nation’s energy
strategy.
Author Contact Information
James K. Jackson
Specialist in International Trade and Finance
jjackson@crs.loc.gov, 7-7751
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