U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of
Changing Oil Prices
James K. Jackson
Specialist in International Trade and Finance
September 14, 2010January 13, 2011
Congressional Research Service
7-5700
www.crs.gov
RS22204
CRS Report for Congress
Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress
U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
Summary
Petroleum prices rose sharply in the first half of 2008, at one time reaching more than $140 per
barrel of crude oil. After July 2008, however, petroleum prices and import volumes fell at a
historically rapid pace; in January 2009, prices of crude oil fell below $40 per barrel. Since then,
crude oil prices have nearly doubled, while the average monthly volume of imports of energyrelated petroleum products has fallen nearly 10% year over year. Despite the drop in the volume
of crude oil risen slightly, year over year, reflecting the positive, albeit slow,
growth in the rate of economic activity. In addition to the slight rise in the volume of crude oil
imports, the rise in the cost of energy imports through 2009 and earlyeleven months of 2010 could add
more more
than $10080 billion to the nation’s trade deficit in 2010 over that experienced in 2009. Should
the U.S. economic recovery falter in the second half of 2010, it could reduce both the volume of
energy imports and the price of those imports compared with earlier estimates. This report
provides an estimate of the initial impact of the changing oil prices on the nation’s merchandise
The increase
in energy import prices is pushing up the price of energy to consumers and could spur some
elements of the public to pressure the 112th Congress to provide relief to households that are
struggling to meet their current expenses. With oil prices rising to over $90 per barrel in early
2011, the International Energy Agency cautioned that the rising price of oil was becoming a threat
to the global economic recovery. This report provides an estimate of the initial impact of the
changing oil prices on the nation’s merchandise trade deficit.
Congressional Research Service
U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
Contents
Background ................................................................................................................................1
Issues for Congress .....................................................................................................................76
Figures
Figure 1. Quantity of U.S. Imports of Energy-Related Petroleum Products ..................................3
Figure 2. Value of U.S. Imports of Energy-Related Petroleum Products .......................................4
Figure 3. U.S. Import Price of Crude Oil .....................................................................................6
Tables
Table 1. Summary Data of U.S. Imports of Energy-Related Petroleum Products, Including
Oil (not seasonally adjusted) ....................................................................................................2
Table 2. U.S. Imports of Energy-Related Petroleum Products, Including Crude Oil (not
seasonally adjusted) .................................................................................................................54
Contacts
Author Contact Information ........................................................................................................87
Congressional Research Service
U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
Background
According to data published by the Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce, 1 the prices
of petroleum products over the first half of 2008 rose sharply, generally rising considerably faster
than the change in demand for those products, before falling at a historic rate. After falling each
month between August 2008 and February 2009, average petroleum prices reversed course and
rose by 85% between February and December 2009, climbing to nearly $80 per barrel at times.
Through the first seveneleven months of 2010, petroleum prices reached a peak average price of about
$77 per
barrel in April before falling to around $72 per barrel in July 2010. Average prices
dropped from
May to July, one of only three times average monthly petroleum prices have
declined since January 2009. Prior to this drop in oil prices, futures contracts had indicated that
prices could reach over $80 per barrel by the fall of 2010. As a result of changing petroleum
prices, the price changes in
January 2009. In November 2010, petroleum import prices averaged nearly $77 per barrel and
continued to increase, reaching over $90 per barrel in January 2011. Oil futures contracts indicate,
however, that crude oil prices are expected to peak at the $90 range before falling to under $80
per barrel by mid-summer. As a result of changing petroleum prices, the price changes in
imported energy-related petroleum products worsened the U.S. trade
deficit in 2006, 2007, and
2008, and likely will again in 2010. Energy-related petroleum products
is a term used by the U.S.
Census Bureau that includes crude oil, petroleum preparations, and
liquefied propane and butane
gas. Crude oil comprises the largest share by far within this broad
category of energy-related
imports.
In 2009, the slowdown in the rate of growth in the U.S. economy reduced the amount of energy
the country imported and helped to push down world energy prices. As economic growth has
improved, energy imports have increased and energy prices rosehave risen. In isolation from other
events, lower
energy prices tend to aid the U.S. economy, which makes it a more attractive
destination for
foreign investment. Such capital inflows, however, place upward pressure on the
dollar against a
broad range of other currencies. To the extent that the additions to the
merchandise trade deficit
are returned to the U.S. economy as payment for additional U.S. exports
or to acquire such assets
as securities or U.S. businesses, the U.S. trade deficit could be mitigated
further.
Summary data from the Census Bureau for the change in the volume, or quantity, of energyrelated petroleum imports and the change in the price, or the value, of those imports for 2009 and
for 2010 are presented in Table 1. The data indicate that during the first seveneleven months of 2010,
the the
United States imported about 2.53.9 billion barrels of energy-related petroleum products, valued
at $188 at
$294 billion. Energy-related imports for this seveneleven-month period were down 2.5up 0.1% in volume
terms terms
from the same period in 2009 and cost twice as much as26% more than similar imports during the same
period in
2009.
1
U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Report FT900, U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services,
Table 17, September 9, 2010January 13, 2011. The report and supporting tables are available at http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/
Press-Release/current_press_release/ftdpress.pdf.
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U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
Table 1. Summary Data of U.S. Imports of Energy-Related Petroleum Products,
Including Oil (not seasonally adjusted)
January through JulyNovember
2009
2010
Quantity
(thousands of
barrels)
Value ($
thousands)
Quantity
(thousands of
barrels)
% change
2008 to
20092009 to
2010
Value ($
thousands)
% change
2008 to
20092009 to
2010
Total energyrelated
petroleum
products
2,571,251
$127,266,380
2,506,922
-2.5%
$188,402,949
48.0%
Crude oil
1,976,047
$96,096,639
1,985,853
0.5%
$147,420,352
53.43,915,751
$219,999,955
3,918,710
0.1%
$294,424,143
33.8%
Crude oil
3,035,470
$168,283,047
3,095,124
2.0%
$229,640,165
36.5%
January through December
2009
2010
(Actual values)
(Estimated values)
Quantity
(thousands of
barrels)
Value ($
thousands)
Quantity
(thousands of
barrels)
% change
2008 to
20092009 to
2010
Value ($
thousands)
% change
2008 to
20092009 to
2010
Total energyrelated
petroleum
products
4,266,007
$245,690,140
4,159,248
-2.5%
$363,715,436
48.0269,231
0.1%
$328,805,108
33.8%
Crude oil
3,314,787
$188,711,775
3,331,236
0.5%
$289,499,785
53.4379,930
2.0%
$257,517,343
36.5%
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Report FT900, U.S. International Trade in Goods
and Services, Table 17, September 9, 2010January 13, 2011.
Note: Estimates for January through December 20092010 were developed by CRS from data through July November
2010 and
data through 2009 published by the Census Bureau using a straight line extrapolation.
The data also indicate that the United States imported 4.3 billion barrels of total energy-related
petroleum products in 2009, valued at $246 billion, compared with a total value of $439 billion in
2008. Also, in 2009, the quantity of energy-related petroleum imports fell by 4.0% compared with
the comparable period in 2008; crude oil imports also fell by 2.7% from the same period in 2008.
Year-over-year, the average value of energy-related petroleum products imports fell by 44% in
2009, while the average value of crude oil imports fell by 45%. As Figure 1 shows, imports of
energy-related petroleum products can vary sharply on a monthly basis. In 2009, imports of
energy-related petroleum products averaged about 355 million barrels a month. Through the first
seven eleven
months of 2010, such imports averaged 358356 million barrels a month.
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U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
Figure 1. Quantity of U.S. Imports of Energy-Related Petroleum Products
$440
Millions of barrels
$420
$400
$380
$360
$340
$320
2008
2009
July
May
June
April
March
January
February
December
October
November
September
July
August
May
June
April
March
January
February
December
October
November
September
July
August
June
May
April
$300April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
$300
2008
2009
2010
Source: Department of Commerce.
In value terms, energy-related imports fell from a total value of $439 billion in 2008 to $245
billion in 2009, or a
decrease of 44%, to account for about 16% of the value of total U.S.
merchandise imports.
Energy prices rose sharply in 2007 and continued rising from January
through July 2008, not
following previous trends of falling during the winter months. As Figure
2 shows, the cost of
U.S. imports of energy-related petroleum products rose from about $17
billion per month in early
2007 to $53 billion a month in July 2008, but fell to $13.6 billion a
month in February 2009, reflecting a
drop in the price and in the volume of imported oil. The
average price of imported oil in July
November 2010 was up 155.8% from the average price in June
November 2009. TotalThe value of total energy imports in JulyNovember 2010 rose
slightly from June October
2010 to $28.4 billion,25.2 billion and up from $23.60 billion in November 2009, as indicated in Table 2.
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U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
Figure 2.Value of U.S. Imports of Energy-Related Petroleum Products
$45
$40
Billions of dollars
$35
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
2008
2009
JulyOctober
November
September
July
August
May
June
April
March
February
JanuaryJanuary
February
December
November
October
AugustNovember
September
July
JuneAugust
May
June
April
March
January
February
December
October
November
September
July
August
May
June
May
April
$5
2010
Source: Department of Commerce.
As a result of the drop in the overall value of energy-related imports in 2009, the trade deficit in
energy-related imports amounted to $204 billion, down by nearly half from the $386 billion
recorded in 2008, and accounted for 40% of the total U.S. trade deficit of $517 billion for the
year. In the seveneleven-month period of January-JulyNovember 2010, the rise in oil prices, year over year,
combined with a slight decrease in demand for increase in energy imports, pushed up the overall value of
energy imports,
which accounted for 4240% of the total merchandise trade deficit. This share is up
from the 38% comparable to the
share of the trade deficit experienced during the same period in 2009. In July 2010,
the November 2010, the
share of the U.S. trade deficit arising from energy imports was 3839%, down from the 46%42% share
recorded in April 2010 due to a 24% increase in the non-energy portion of the trade deficit.
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U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
November 2010.
Table 2. U.S. Imports of Energy-Related Petroleum Products, Including Crude Oil
(not seasonally adjusted)
Total energy-related
petroleum productsa
Period
Quantity
(thousands
of barrels)
Period
Value
($
thousands)
Crude oil
Quantity
(thousands of
barrels)
Thousands
of barrels
per day
(average)
Value
($
thousands)
Unit price
(dollars)
2009
Jan.-Dec.
4,266,007
$245,690,140
3,314,787
9,082
$188,711,775
$56.93
Jan.-July
2,571,251
127,266,380
1,976,047
9,321
96,096,639
48.63Nov.
3,915,751
$219,999,955
3,035,470
9,088
$168,283,047
55.44
January
405,890
16,398,894
301,069
9,712
12,000,941
39.86
February
335,510
13,586,823
254,504
9,089
9,962,489
39.14
March
378,997
16,084,729
291,514
9,404
12,033,939
41.28
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U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
Total energy-related
petroleum productsa
Crude oil
Quantity
(thousands
of barrels)
Value
($
thousands)
Quantity
(thousands of
barrels)
Thousands
of barrels
per day
(average)
Value
($
thousands)
April
366,401
17,354,644
290,973
9,699
13,582,121
46.68
May
337,118
17,682,576
261,296
8,429
13,404,650
51.30
June
371,612
22,515,808
282,057
9,402
16,691,240
59.18
July
375,723
23,642,907
294,634
9,504
18,421,260
62.52
August
339,446
22,459,799
268,878
8,673
17,417,873
64.78
September
361,561
24,845,000
286,200
9,540
19,511,044
68.17
October
328,767
22,416,890
258,420
8,336
17,410,475
67.37
November
314,726
23,011,887
245,925
8,198
17,847,016
72.57
December
350,256
25,690,185
279,317
9,010
20,428,728
73.14
2010
Jan.-July
2,506,922
188,402,949
1,985,853
9,367
147,420,352
74.24Period
Unit price
(dollars)
2010
Jan.-Nov.
3,918,710
294,424,143
3,095,124
9,267
229,640,165
74.19
January
329,246
24,681,956
245,273
7,912
18,122,185
73.89
February
313,293
23,040,666
243,305
8,689
17,742,303
72.92
March
369,473
27,809,434
299,473
9,660
22,258,328
74.32
April
368,731
28,828,138
294,118
9,804
22,685,592
77.13
May
355,344
27,597,395
280,029
9,033
21,542,988
76.93
June
382,177
28,015,041
311,932
10,398
22,595,686
72.44
July
388,659
28,430,320
311,724
10,056
22,473,270
72.09
August
392,801
29,180,574
306,909
9,900
22,548,205
73.47
September
364,678
26,623,444
289,694
9,656
20,961,556
72.36
October
330,752
24,992,682
254,479
8,209
18,878,078
74.18
November
323,557
25,224,494
258,188
8,606
19,831,974
76.81
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Report FT900, U.S. International Trade in Goods
and Services, Table 17, September 9, 2010January 13, 2011.
a.
Energy-related petroleum products is a term used by the Census Bureau and includes crude oil, petroleum
preparations, and liquefied propane and butane gas.
Crude oil comprises the largest share of energy-related petroleum products imports. According to
Census Bureau data,2 imports of crude oil fell from an average of 9.8 million barrels of crude oil
2
Report FT900, U.S. International Transactions in Goods and Services, Table 17, September 9, 2010.
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U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
imports per day in 2008 to an average of 9.1 million barrels per day in 2009, or a decrease of 7%.
In JulyNovember 2010, such imports averaged 10.18.6 million barrels per day, or an increase of 5.6% 0%
over the
volume of such imports recorded in JulyNovember 2009. From January 2008 to June 2008,
the average
price of crude oil increased from $84 per barrel to $117 per barrel, or an increase of 39%, as
2
Report FT900, U.S. International Transactions in Goods and Services, Table 17, January 13, 2011.
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U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
39%, as shown in Figure 3. As a result, the value of U.S. crude oil imports rose from about $27
billion a
month in January 2008 to $35 billion a month in June 2008.
Figure 3. U.S. Import Price of Crude Oil
$125
$115
Dollars per barrel
$105
$95
$85
$75
$65
$55
$45
2008
2009
July
June
April
May
October
November
September
July
August
May
June
April
March
January
February
December
October
November
December
September
July
August
June
May
April
January
February
March
November
December
October
August
September
May
June
July
September
July
2009
August
May
June
April
March
January
2008
February
December
October
November
September
July
August
May
June
April
$35
2010
Source: Department of Commerce.
Data for 2009 indicate that a number of factors, primarily the economic recession, had a large
impact on pushing down oil prices in the first three months. As economic growth picked up, the
higher demand tended to raise pressure on oil prices, which rose through the end of the year. The
rise in oil prices and an increase in the volumes of oil imports during the period combined to raise
the overall cost of imported energy. At times, crude oil traded for nearly $148 per barrel in July
2008, indicating that the cost of energy imports would have a significant impact on the overall
costs of U.S. imports and on the valuesize of the U.S. trade deficit. Since those record prices, the
price price
per barrel of imported crude oil fell to under $40 per barrel at times in January and February
2009. For the year 2009, the imported volume of energy-related petroleum products fell by 44%,
compared with 2008, due in large part to a slowdown in economic activity. At an average price of
$56 per barrel in
2009, compared with an average price of $95 per barrel in 2008, energy-related
imports fell by
nearly $130 billion as a component in the overall U.S. trade deficit. For 2010, the
total cost of
energy imports could rise to about $300 billion at an average price of $75 per barrel and could
rise to nearly $330 billion at an average price of $85 per barrel 76 per barrel
and account for nearly half of the
annual trade deficit.
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U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
Issues for Congress
The rise in the prices of energy imports experienced since early 2000 through April 2010January 2011 could
have a significant impact on the annual U.S. trade deficit in 2010 and 2011, should those price increases
increases stick, or run even higher. The rise in energy prices may well affect the U.S. rate of
inflation and
could have a slightly negative impact on the rate of economic growth in 2010.
Various factors,
dominated by the rate of economic growth in the United States and Western Europe, could
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U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
Europe, could combine to push up the cost of energy imports, which will have a slightly negative
impact on the
pace of the economic recovery. Typically, energy import prices have followed a
cyclical pattern
that has caused energy prices to rise in the summer and decline in the winter. The
slowdown in
the rate of economic growth in the United States and elsewhere in 2009 sharply
reduced the
demand for energy imports and caused oil prices to tumble from the heights they
reached in July
2008. An important factor that often affects crude oil prices is the impact Atlantic
hurricanes have
on the production of crude oil in the Gulf of Mexico. The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and
concerns over the safety of oil wells in the region could somewhat dampen oil production and
further strain supplies as summer demand increases.
The return to a positive rate of economic growth will continue to place upward pressure on the
prices of energy imports and contribute to the nation’s merchandise trade deficit. Some of the
impact of this deficit could be offset if some of the dollars that accrue abroad are returned to the
U.S. economy through increased purchases of U.S. goods and services or through purchases of
such other assets as corporate securities or acquisitions of U.S. businesses. Some of the return in
dollars likely will come through sovereign wealth funds, or funds controlled and managed by
foreign governments, as foreign exchange reserves boost the dollar holdings of such funds. Such
investments likely will add to concerns about the national security implications of foreign
acquisitions of U.S. firms, especially by foreign governments, and to concerns about the growing
share of outstanding U.S. Treasury securities that are owned by foreigners.
It is likely that the economy will again face high and rising prices for imported energy products as
national economies recover to a more robust rate of economic growth. It is possible for the
economy to adjust to the higher prices of energy imports by improving its energy efficiency,
finding alternative sources of energy, or searching out additional supplies of energy. There may
well be increased pressure applied to Congress to assist in this process. For Congress, the increase
in the nation’s merchandise trade deficit could add to existing inflationary pressures and
complicate efforts to stimulate the economy should the rate of economic growth flatten out. In
particular, Congress, through its direct role in making economic policy and its oversight role over
the Federal Reserve, could face the dilemma of rising inflation, which generally is treated by
raising interest rates to tighten credit, and a slow rate of economic growth, which is usually
addressed by lowering interest rates to stimulate investment. A sharp rise in the trade deficit may
also add to pressures for Congress to examine the causes of the deficit and to address the
underlying factors that are generating that deficit. In addition, the rise in prices of energy imports
could add to concerns about the nation’s reliance on foreign supplies for energy imports and add
impetus to examining the nation’s energy strategy.
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Author Contact Information
James K. Jackson
Specialist in International Trade and Finance
jjackson@crs.loc.gov, 7-7751
Congressional Research Service
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