Order Code RL33153
China Naval Modernization: Implications for
U.S. Navy Capabilities — Background and
Issues for Congress
Updated FebruaryApril 4, 2008
Ronald O’Rourke
Specialist in National Defense
Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division
China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy
Capabilities — Background and Issues for Congress
Summary
Concern has grown in Congress and elsewhere since the 1990s about China’s military
military modernization. The topic is an increasing factor in discussions over future required
U.S. Navy capabilities.
required U.S. Navy capabilities. Several of the U.S. Navy’s most expensive
acquisition programs, as well as Navy initiatives for homeporting ships and for
training sailors, are for developing or maintaining capabilities that could be useful
or critical in countering improved Chinese maritime military capabilities in coming
years. The issue for Congress addressed in this report is: How
should China’s
military modernization be factored into decisions about U.S. Navy
programs?
Several elements of China’s military modernization have potential implications
for future required U.S. Navy capabilities. These include theater-range ballistic
missiles (TBMs), land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs), anti-ship cruise missiles
(ASCMs), surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), land-based aircraft, naval mines,
submarines, surface
combatants, amphibious ships, naval mines, nuclear weapons, and possibly highpower
high-power microwave (HPM) devices. China’s naval limitations or weaknesses include
include capabilities for operating in waters more distant from China, joint operations, C4ISR
C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and
and reconnaissance), long-range surveillance and targeting systems, anti-air warfare
(AAW), antisubmarine warfare (ASW), mine countermeasures (MCM), and logistics.
Observers believe a near-term focus of China’s military modernization is to field
a force that can succeed in a short-duration conflict with Taiwan and act as an antiaccess force to deter U.S. intervention or delay the arrival of U.S. forces, particularly
naval and air forces, in such a conflict. Some analysts speculate that China may
attain (or believe that it has attained) a capable maritime anti-access force, or
elements of it, by about 2010. Other observers believe this will happen later.
Potential broader or longer-term goals of China’s naval modernization include
asserting China’s regional military leadership and protecting China’s maritime
territorial, economic, and energy interests.
China’s naval modernization has potential implications for required U.S. Navy
capabilities in terms of preparing for a conflict in the Taiwan Strait area, maintaining
U.S. Navy presence and military influence in the Western Pacific, and countering
Chinese ballistic missile submarines. Preparing for a conflict in the Taiwan Strait
area could place a premium on the following: on-station or early-arriving Navy
forces, capabilities for defeating China’s maritime anti-access forces, and capabilities
for operating in an environment that could be characterized by information warfare
and possibly electromagnetic pulse (EMP) and the use of nuclear weapons.
Certain options are available for improving U.S. Navy capabilities by 2010;
additional options, particularly in shipbuilding, can improve U.S. Navy capabilities
in subsequent years. China’s naval modernization raises potential issues for
Congress concerning the
role of China in Department of Defense (DOD) and Navy
planning; the size of the Navy; the
Pacific Fleet’s share of the Navy; forward
homeporting of Navy ships homeporting in the Western Pacific; the
number of aircraft carriers,
submarines, and ASW-capable platforms; Navy missile defense,
air-warfare, AAW,
ASW, and mine warfare programs; Navy computer network
security; and EMP
hardening of Navy systems hardening. This report will be updated as events warrant.
Contents
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Congressional And Navy ConcernIssue for Congress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Issue for Congress. . . . . . . . . . . 1
Scope, Sources, and Terminology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Background . . . . . . .. . . . 3
Scope of Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Terminology .2
China’s Naval Modernization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Military Doctrine, Education, Training, Exercises, and Logistics . . . . . 2
Missiles and Aircraft . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Naval Mines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Background. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Submarines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
China’s Naval Modernization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Aircraft Carriers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Maritime-Relevant Elements of China’s Military Modernization . . . . . 5
China’s Naval Limitations and Weaknesses .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Surface Combatants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Goals or Significance of China’s Naval Modernization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Potential Implications for Required U.S. Navy Capabilities. . 17
Amphibious Ships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
Capabilities for Taiwan Strait Crisis or Conflict. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
Capabilities for Maintaining Regional Presence and Influence . . . . . . 62
Capabilities for Tracking and Countering PLA SSBNs21
Mine Countermeasures (MCM) Ships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Potential Oversight Issues for Congress22
Nuclear Weapons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
China as a Defense-Planning Priority . . .. . . . . . . 22
High-Power Microwave (HPM) Weapons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
China’s Naval Limitations and Weaknesses . . . . . .. . . . 64
DOD Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
In General . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
Navy Planning. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Sustained Operations in Distant Waters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
Navy Force Structure and Basing Arrangements27
Joint Operations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
Size of the Fleet. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Anti-Air Warfare (AAW) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
Division of Fleet Between Atlantic and Pacific. . . . . 28
Antisubmarine Warfare (ASW) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
Forward Homeporting in the Western Pacific. . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Mine Countermeasures (MCM) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
Number of Aircraft Carriers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Logistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
Number of Attack Submarines (SSNs). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
Number of ASW-Capable Ships and Aircraft . . . .29
Goals or Significance of China’s Naval Modernization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Navy Warfare Areas and Programs31
PLA Navy as a Modernization Priority . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
Missile Defense 31
Near-Term Focus: Taiwan Situation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32
Anti-Access Force for Short-Duration Conflict . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
Air Warfare34
Broader or Longer-Term Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38
Potential Implications for Required U.S. Navy Capabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
Anti-Air Warfare (AAW)46
Capabilities for Taiwan Strait Crisis or Conflict . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
Antisubmarine Warfare (ASW)46
Capabilities for Maintaining Regional Presence and Influence . . . . . . 51
Capabilities for Tracking and Countering PLA SSBNs . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Potential Oversight Issues for Congress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Mine Warfare . .. 52
China as a Defense-Planning Priority . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .52
DOD Planning . . . . . . . . . . . 84
Computer Network Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
EMP Hardening52
Navy Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
Legislative Activity For FY2008. 52
Navy Force Structure and Basing Arrangements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
Size of the Fleet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
FY2008 Defense Authorization Bill (H.R. 1585/S. 1547). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
House . . . . . 53
Pacific Fleet’s Share of the Navy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
Forward Homeporting in the Western Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
Senate55
Number of Aircraft Carriers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Number of Attack Submarines (SSNs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
Conference . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Number of ASW-Capable Ships and Aircraft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Navy Warfare Areas and Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
Appendix. Additional Details on China’s Naval Modernization Efforts . . . . . . 90
List of Tables
Table 1.
Table 2.
Table 3.
Table 4.
Table 5.
PLA Navy Submarine Commissionings. . . . . . . . . . 60
Missile Defense . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Chinese Submarine Patrols Per Year, 1981-2007. . . . 60
Air Warfare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
New PLA Navy Destroyer Classes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
New PLA Navy Frigate Classes63
Anti-Air Warfare (AAW) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Potential Ship Travel Times to Taiwan Strait Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
China Naval Modernization: Implications for
U.S. Navy Capabilities — Background and
Issues for Congress
Introduction
Congressional And Navy Concern
Concern has grown in Congress and elsewhere since the 1990s about China’s
military modernization and its potential implications for required U.S. military
capabilities. China’s military modernization is an increasing element in discussions
of future U.S. Navy requirements. A May 2005 press report, for example, stated that:
China is one of the central issues, along with terrorism and weapons of mass
destruction, in the U.S. military’s 2005 Quadrennial Defense Review, a
congressionally directed study of military plans.... [W]hen the [then-]chief of
naval operations, Adm. Vern Clark, held a classified briefing for congressional
defense committees earlier this month about threats, his focus was “mainly” on
China, about which he is “gravely concerned,” recalled John W. Warner, the
Virginia Republican who chairs the Senate Armed Services Committee....
China has come up repeatedly in congressional debate over the size of the Navy.
The 288-ship fleet of today is half the size it was three decades ago. “You never
want to broadcast to the world that something’s insufficient,” Warner says, “but
clearly China poses a challenge to the sizing of the U.S. Navy.”1
In an address delivered on February 7, 2007, Secretary of the Navy Donald
Winter stated:
Naval forces must be ready, above all, to conduct major combat operations
should the need arise.
We cannot ignore events and trends that reinforce that belief. A recent
White Paper prepared by the Chinese military outlined a three-step strategy for
modernizing its defense, to include its blue-water ambitions. The third step in
their strategy states as a strategic goal “building modernized armed forces and
being capable of winning modern, net-centric wars by the mid-21st century.”
This document implicitly suggests that China hopes to be in a position to
successfully challenge the United States, a challenge that would certainly entail
blue-water operations.
1
John M. Donnelly, “China On Course To Be Pentagon’s Next Worry,” CQ Weekly, May
2, 2005, p. 1126.
CRS-2
Public declarations such as this statement and many others serve as
reminders that we must be prepared for a world that does not always follow our
preferences. Of course, we hope that China will choose a peaceful path. But
hope is not a strategy, so we must be prepared.
Those who might be tempted to dismiss or discount the need to be prepared
for major combat operations ought to keep in mind that their goodwill and
optimism towards totalitarian regimes may not be reciprocated.2
A press article reporting on an April 3, 2007, address by Admiral Michael
Mullen, then the Chief of Naval Operations and now the Chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff, stated that in addition to other topics,
The admiral also commented on the threats that drive military spending
needs. For example, he noted, China is building a new, modernized navy.
“The Chinese are shifting from land-centric” forces as their main focus “to
air-centric and naval-centric” buildups. China is acquiring cutting-edge aircraft,
new destroyers, four new classes of submarines, and hundreds of radar-guided
missiles. “Those investments very much have our attention,” Mullen said.3
Another short news article, reporting on comments made by Mullen at a
breakfast meeting in early May 2007, stated that:
In response to a question about the need for large Navy vessels, Mullen
[told] attendees that while he doesn’t expect to see big sea battles, the service has
to be mindful of China’s naval build up. “China is very actively investing in their
navy, building more ships each year. Their building rate is much higher than ours
right now,” he says. “We have to be mindful of that. Not to be mindful of that
would be irresponsible.”4
At a December 13, 2007, hearing before the House Armed Services Committee,
Admiral Gary Roughead, the current Chief of Naval Operations, acknowledged that
China’s rate of submarine production is a concern5 and stated later that “my judgment
2
Donald C. Winter, “Navy Transformation: A Stable, Long-Term View,” Heritage Lectures,
No. 1004, March 19, 2007, [remarks] delivered February 7, 2007, p. 2. (Published by The
Heritage Foundation)
3
Dave Ahearn, “Mullen Says Military Faces Financial Crisis, But Nation Can Afford
Arms,” Defense Daily, April 5, 2007. The passage as originally published was in the form
of five one-sentence paragraphs and has been condensed here into two paragraphs for ease
of reading.
4
5
“Interesting Times,” Defense Daily, May 7, 2007.
At the hearing, Representative Hunter stated to Admiral Roughead: “With respect to the
increased [Chinese rate of submarine] production, in terms of them outstripping us by
three-to-one on submarine production, and your own figures show that they are going to
eclipse us in submarine numbers in 2011 — maybe little earlier, maybe a little later,
depending on which analysis you go with: Clearly, that should be a concern to you.”
Admiral Roughead replied: “Well, it is.” (Source: Partial transcript of the hearing as posted
on InsideDefense.com.)
CRS-3
is that it is a navy that is modernizing at a rate that is exceeding what our
expectations have been.”6
Issue for Congress. . 66
Antisubmarine Warfare (ASW) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
Mine Warfare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
Computer Network Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
EMP Hardening . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
Legislative Activity for FY2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
FY2008 Defense Authorization Act (H.R. 1585/S. 1547/H.R. 4986/
P.L. 110-181) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
House . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
Senate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
Conference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
Appendix A. Examples of Expressions of Concern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Appendix B. Additional Details on China’s Naval Modernization Efforts . . . . 83
List of Tables
Table 1.
Table 2.
Table 3.
Table 4.
Table 5.
Table 6.
PLA Navy Submarine Commissionings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Chinese Submarine Patrols Per Year, 1981-2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
New PLA Navy Destroyer Classes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
New PLA Navy Frigate Classes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Potential Ship Travel Times to Taiwan Strait Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Pacific Fleet’s Share of the Navy, FY1995-FY2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
China Naval Modernization: Implications for
U.S. Navy Capabilities — Background and
Issues for Congress
Introduction
Issue for Congress
Concern has grown in Congress and elsewhere since the 1990s about China’s
military modernization and its potential implications for required U.S. military
capabilities. China’s military modernization is an increasing element in discussions
of future U.S. Navy requirements.1 Several of the U.S. Navy’s most expensive
acquisition programs, as well as Navy initiatives for homeporting ships and for
training sailors, are for developing or maintaining capabilities that could be useful
or critical in countering improved Chinese maritime military capabilities in coming
years.
The issue for Congress addressed in this report is: How should China’s military
modernization be factored into decisions about U.S. Navy programs? Congress’s
decisions on this issue could significantly affect future U.S. Navy capabilities, U.S.
Navy funding requirements, and the U.S. defense industrial base, including the
shipbuilding industry.
Scope of Report, Sources, and Terminology
This report focuses on the implications that certain elements of China’s military
modernization may have for future required U.S. Navy capabilities. It does not
discuss the following:
!
other2 Other CRS
reports address separate issues relating to China and China’s military.
1
For examples of expressions of concern about China’s military modernization, and of its
potential implications for U.S. Navy requirements, see Appendix A.
2
This CRS report does not discuss (1) elements of China’s military modernization that may
be less
relevant to future required U.S. Navy capabilities;
!
(2) the potential implications of
China’s military modernization for
parts of DOD other than the Department of Defense (DOD) other than
the Navy (such as the Air Force and the
Missile Defense Agency), federal agencies other
than DOD (such as
the Department of State), and countries other than the United States;
and
!
and
(3) China’s foreign or economic policy, U.S. defense policy toward
Taiwan, or the political
likelihood of a military conflict involving
China and the United States over Taiwan or some other issue.
Other CRS reports address some of these issues.
Terminology
other issue.
CRS-2
This report is based on unclassified open-source information.
For convenience, this report uses the term China’s naval modernization, even
though some of theChinese military modernization efforts that could affect required U.S.
Navy capabilities are occurring in other parts of China’s military, such as the air force
or the missile force.
China’s military is formally called the People’s Liberation Army, or PLA. Its
navy is called the PLA Navy, or PLAN, and its air force is called the PLA Air Force,
or PLAAF. The PLA Navy includes an air component that is called the PLA Naval
Air Force, or PLANAF. China refers to its ballistic missile force as the Second
Artillery Force.
6
Source: Partial transcript of hearing as posted on InsideDefense.com.
CRS-4
Sources
Sources of information for this report, all of which are unclassified, include the
following:
!
the 2007 edition DOD’s annual report to Congress on China’s
military power, which was released on May 25, 2007, and previous
annual editions of this report;7
!
the 2004 edition of Worldwide Maritime Challenges, a publication
of the U.S. Navy’s Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI);8
!
China’s 2006 and 2004 defense white papers;9
!
the prepared statements and transcript of a July 27, 2005, hearing on
China grand strategy and military modernization before the House
Armed Services Committee;10
!
the prepared statements for March 16, 2006, and September 15,
2005, hearings on China’s military modernization before the U.S.China Economic and Security Review Commission, an advisory
body created by the FY2001 defense authorization act (P.L. 106398) and subsequent legislation,11 and the prepared statements and
published transcript of a similar hearing before the commission on
February 6, 2004;12
7
U.S. Department of Defense, Annual Report To Congress [on] Military Power of the
People’s Republic of China, 2007. Washington, Office of the Secretary of Defense, released
May 25, 2007. (Hereafter cited as 2007 DOD CMP.) Previous annual editions cited
similarly.
8
U.S. Department of the Navy, Worldwide Maritime Challenges 2004, Washington,
prepared by the Office of Naval Intelligence. (Hereafter cited as 2004 ONI WMC.)
9
The white papers are entitled China’s National Defense in 2006 and China’s National
Defense in 2004. (Hereafter cited as 2006 China White Paper and 2004 China White
Paper.) The English-language texts of the papers can be found on the Internet at
[http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/doctrine/wp2006.html] and
[http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/doctrine/natdef2004.html].
10
Transcript hereafter cited as 7/27/05 HASC hearing.
11
Hereafter cited as 3/16/06 USCC hearing and 9/15/05 USCC hearing. The Commission’s
website, which includes these and other past hearings, is at [http://www.uscc.gov].
12
Hearing On Military Modernization and Cross-Strait Balance, Hearing Before the U.S.China Economic and Security Review Commission, February 6, 2004. Washington, U.S.
Govt. Print. Off., 2004. (Hereafter cited as 2/6/04 USCC hearing. )
CRS-5
!
a 2007 report on China’s military antiaccess strategies and a 2005
report on China’s defense industry, both by the RAND
Corporation;13
!
a 2003 report on China’s military power by an independent task
force sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations;14
!
open-source military reference sources such as the Jane’s
Information Group; and
!
journal articles and news articles, including articles from the defense
trade press.15
Background
China’s Naval Modernization
Maritime-Relevant Elements of China’s Military Modernization16.
This section summarizes elements of China’s military modernization that may have
implications for required U.S. Navy capabilities. See Appendix A for additional
details and commentary on several of these modernization activities.
Theater-Range Ballistic Missiles (TBMs). One of the most prominent
elements of China’s military modernization has been the deployment of large
numbers of theater-range ballistic missiles (TBMs)17 capable of attacking targets in
Taiwan or other regional locations. Among these are CSS-6 and CSS-7 short-range
ballistic missiles (SRBMs) deployed in locations across from Taiwan. DOD states
13
Roger Cliff et al., Entering the Dragon’s Lair: Chinese Antiaccess Strategies and Their
Implications for the United States. Santa Monica, CA, RAND Corporation, 2007. 129 pp.
(MG-524-AF, RAND Project Air Force.) Evan S. Medeiros et al., A New Direction for
China’s Defense Industry. Santa Monica, CA, RAND Corporation, 2005. 304 pp. (MG334, RAND Project Air Force.) (Hereafter cited as 2007 RAND report and 2005 RAND
report.)
14
Chinese Military Power, Report of an Independent Task Force Sponsored by the Council
on Foreign Relations Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies. Washington,
2003. (Harold Brown, Chair, Joseph W. Prueher, Vice Chair, Adam Segal, Project Director)
(Hereafter cited as 2003 CFR task force report.)
15
An additional source of reference information on China’s navy, particularly with regard
to its organization, leadership, political system, doctrine, and training is, U.S. Department
of the Navy, Office of Naval Intelligence, China’s Navy 2007, Washington, 2007. 130 pp.
16
Unless otherwise indicated, shipbuilding program information in this section is taken from
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, and previous editions Other sources of information on
these shipbuilding programs may disagree regarding projected ship commissioning dates or
other details, but sources present similar overall pictures regarding PLA Navy shipbuilding.
17
Depending on their ranges, TBMs can be divided into short-, medium-, and intermediaterange ballistic missiles (SRBMs, MRBMs, and IRBMs, respectively).
CRS-6
that China as of October 2006 had deployed 875 to 975 CSS-6 and CSS-7 TBMs, and
that this total is increasing at a rate of more than 100 missiles per year.18
Although ballistic missiles in the past have traditionally been used to attack
fixed targets on land, DOD and other observers believe China is developing TBMs
equipped with maneuverable reentry vehicles (MaRVs) capable of hitting moving
ships at sea. In January 2007, the Director of National Intelligence stated:
The Chinese are developing more capable long-range conventional strike systems
and short- and medium-range ballistic missiles with terminally guided
maneuverable warheads able to attack US carriers and airbases.19
Observers have expressed strong concern about this development, because such
missiles, in combination with broad-area maritime surveillance and targeting
systems, would permit China to attack moving U.S. Navy ships in the Western
Pacific. The U.S. Navy has not previously faced a threat from highly accurate
ballistic missiles capable of hitting moving ships at sea. Due to their ability to
change course, MaRVs would be more difficult to intercept than non-maneuvering
ballistic missile reentry vehicles. DOD states that:
To prevent deployment of naval forces into western Pacific waters, PLA
planners are focused on targeting surface ships at long ranges. Analyses of
current and projected force structure improvements suggest that in the near term,
China is seeking the capacity to hold surface ships at risk through a layered
defense that reaches out to the “second island chain” (i.e., the islands extending
south and east from Japan, to and beyond Guam in the western Pacific Ocean).
One area of apparent investment emphasis involves a combination of mediumrange ballistic missiles, C4ISR for geo-location of targets, and onboard guidance
systems for terminal homing to strike surface ships on the high seas or their
onshore support infrastructure. This capability would have particular
significance, owing to the preemptive and coercive options it would provide
China in a regional crisis.20
According to a 2005 press report, “navy officials project [that such missiles]
could be capable of targeting US warships from sometime around 2015.”21 A July
2007 press report states that another observer believes that a MARV-equipped
version of the CSS-6 may be close to initial operational status.22 The CSS-6 is also
18
2007 DOD CMP, pp. 3 and 42.
19
Annual Threat Assessment of the Director of National Intelligence, January 11, 2007,
John D. Negroponte, Director of National Intelligence, p. 10.
20
2007 DOD CMP, pp. 16-17. DOD also states: “China continues to explore the use of
ballistic and cruise missiles for anti-access missions, including counter-carrier and land
attack, and is working on reconnaissance and communication systems to improve command,
control, and targeting.” (2007 DOD CMP, p. 3.)
21
Yihong Chang and Andrew Koch, “Is China Building A Carrier?” Jane’s Defence Weekly,
August 17, 2005.
22
Bill Gertz, “Inside the Ring,” Washington Times, July 20, 2007: 6. (Item entitled “New
Chinese Missiles”). The article stated that it was reporting information from forthcoming
CRS-7
known as the DF-21, and the MARV-equipped version has been referred to as the
DF-21C.23
Land-Attack Cruise Missiles (LACMs). China is developing land-attack
cruise missiles (LACMs) that can be fired from land bases, land-based aircraft, or
Navy platforms such as submarines to attack targets, including air and naval bases,
in Taiwan or other regional locations, such as Japan or Guam. DOD states that
“First- and second-generation LACMs may be deployed in the near future.”24 The
U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) stated in 2005 that “We judge that by 2015,
[China] will have hundreds of highly accurate air- and ground-launched LACMs.”25Background
China’s Naval Modernization3
This section summarizes certain elements of China’s military modernization that
may have implications for required U.S. Navy capabilities. See Appendix B for
additional details and commentary on several of these modernization activities. In
addition to the modernization efforts discussed here and in Appendix B, China’s
anti-satellite and cyberwarfare capabilities may have implications for required U.S.
Navy capabilities.
Military Doctrine, Education, Training, Exercises, and Logistics.
Military capability is a product not simply of having weapons, but of having a
doctrine for how to use them, well-educated and well-trained personnel, realistic
exercises, and logistic support. In past years, the PLA was considered weak in some
or all of these areas, and PLA military capability consequently was considered not as
great as its inventory of weapons alone might suggest.
China’s 2004 defense white paper4 stated an intention to improve in these areas,
and observers believe the PLA is acting on these intentions. The PLA in recent years
has developed a doctrine for joint operations involving multiple military services,
improved its military education and training and conducted more realistic exercises,
and reformed its logistics system. The Department of Defense (DOD) stated in 2005
that “China has stated its intentions and allocated resources to pursue force-wide
3
Unless otherwise indicated, shipbuilding program information in this section is taken from
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, and previous editions Other sources of information on
these shipbuilding programs may disagree regarding projected ship commissioning dates or
other details, but sources present similar overall pictures regarding PLA Navy shipbuilding.
4
China published defense white papers in 2006 and 2004; they are entitled China’s National
Defense in 2006 and China’s National Defense in 2004. (Hereafter cited as 2006 China
White Paper and 2004 China White Paper.) The English-language texts of the papers can
be found on the Internet at
[http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/doctrine/wp2006.html] and
[http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/doctrine/natdef2004.html].
CRS-3
professionalization, improve training, conduct more robust, realistic joint exercises,
and accelerate acquisition of modern weapons.”5 DOD states that:
The PLA’s ongoing military reforms emphasize building a qualified officer
and NCO corps. Many of the PLA’s investments in human capital are described
in the 2004 Defense White Paper as elements of the “Strategic Project for
Talented People,” which focuses on personnel management, education, and
training reforms. The 2006 Defense White Paper reiterated the importance of
training and educational reforms in addition to improving morale and welfare in
the military. Improvements in the quality of personnel will continue to parallel
broader force structure, doctrine, and training reforms across the PLA as it seeks
to build a force able to fight and win “local wars under conditions of
informatization.”6
DOD also states that:
The PLA is compiling and validating a new Outline for Military Training
and Evaluation (OMTE) to align its military training with its vision for
transformation for warfare under “informatized conditions.” The new OMTE will
emphasize realistic training conditions, training in electromagnetic and joint
operations environments, and integrating new and high technologies into the
force structure.7
DOD states that in addition to improving the education level of people brought
into the military,
An equally important aspect of the PLA’s modernization is enhancing the
realism and quality of military training. During the Army-Wide Military Training
Conference in 2006, the CMC announced training would be more robust and
information-intensive to better prepare the PLA to face technologically advanced
adversaries.
The PLA General Staff Department (GSD) 2007 training guidelines
indicate the PLA expects training scenarios to resemble actual combat conditions
as closely as possible. The PLA is attempting to enhance the level of realism by
incorporating opposing forces into its exercises and, in some cases, by designing
training that compels officers to deviate from the scripted exercise plan. The
PLA is also conducting more joint service exercises. Although these efforts tend
to be based more on de-confliction than truly joint operations, they do signify
that the PLA is attempting to prepare its officers and soldiers for the demands of
the future battlefield. In addition, the PLA is utilizing simulators to increase
training time and conducting more command post exercises to improve its
officers’ planning and decisionmaking skills.8
5
U.S. Department of Defense, Annual Report to Congress [on] Military Power of the
People’s Republic of China 2005. Washington, 2005. p. 26. (Hereafter 2005 DOD CMP.
Editions for other years cited similarly.) p. 26.
6
2008 DOD CMP, p. 45.
7
2008 DOD CMP, p. 5.
8
2008 DOD CMP, p. 47.
CRS-4
Improvements in these areas might be considered as important as the weaponmodernization activities discussed below. Some of these improvements may require
several years to fully implement. DOD states that
the PLA is likely to continue to face several problems as reforms are
implemented. For example, the PLA itself acknowledges that military training
continues to suffer from units “going through the motions,” heavy scripting, and
a lack of realism. The PLA will need to address these deficiencies if the human
capital reforms are to achieve any longterm improvements across the military.9
Missiles and Aircraft.
Theater-Range Ballistic Missiles (TBMs). China is deploying large
numbers of theater-range ballistic missiles (TBMs)10 capable of attacking targets in
Taiwan or other regional locations. DOD states, “By November 2007, the PLA had
deployed between 990 and 1,070 CSS-6 and CSS-7 short-range ballistic missiles
(SRBM) to garrisons opposite Taiwan. It is increasing the size of this force at a rate
of more than 100 missiles per year, including variants of these missiles with
improved ranges, accuracies, and payloads.”11
Although ballistic missiles in the past have traditionally been used to attack
fixed targets on land, DOD and other observers believe China is developing TBMs
equipped with maneuverable reentry vehicles (MaRVs) capable of hitting moving
ships at sea. The weapons are referred to as anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs).
DOD states that
China is developing an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) based on a variant of
the CSS-5 medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) as a component of its
anti-access strategy. The missile has a range in excess of 1,500 km and, when
incorporated into a sophisticated command and control system, is a key
component of China’s anti-access strategy to provide the PLA the capability to
attack ships at sea, including aircraft carriers, from great distances.12
Observers have expressed strong concern about this development, because such
missiles, in combination with broad-area maritime surveillance and targeting
systems, would permit China to attack moving U.S. Navy ships in the Western
Pacific. The U.S. Navy has not previously faced a threat from highly accurate
ballistic missiles capable of hitting moving ships at sea. Due to their ability to
change course, MaRVs would be more difficult to intercept than non-maneuvering
ballistic missile reentry vehicles.
9
2008 DOD CMP, p. 48.
10
Depending on their ranges, TBMs can be divided into short-, medium-, and intermediaterange ballistic missiles (SRBMs, MRBMs, and IRBMs, respectively).
11
2008 DOD CMP, p. 2.
12
2008 DOD CMP, p. 2.
CRS-5
The CSS-6 is also known as the DF-21, and the MARV-equipped version has
been referred to as the DF-21C.13 A July 2007 press report states that one observer
believes that a MARV-equipped version of the CSS-6 may be close to initial
operational status.14
Land-Attack Cruise Missiles (LACMs). China is developing land-attack
cruise missiles (LACMs) that can be fired from land bases, land-based aircraft, or
Navy platforms such as submarines to attack targets, including air and naval bases,
in Taiwan or other regional locations, such as Japan or Guam. DOD stated in 2007
that “First- and second-generation LACMs may be deployed in the near future.”15
Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles (ASCMs). China is modernizing its extensive
inventory of anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), which can be launched from landbased strike fighters and bombers, surface combatants, submarines and possibly
shore-based launchers. Among the most capable of the new ASCMs that have been
or are being acquired by the PLA Navy are the Russian-made SS-N-22 Sunburn
(carried by China’s four Russian-made Sovremenny-class destroyers) and the SS-N27 Sizzler (carried by at least 8 of China’s 12 Russian-made Kilo-class submarines).
DOD states that “The pace of [China’s] indigenous ASCM research, development
and production — and of foreign procurement — has accelerated over the past
decade.”26
Surface-To-Air Missiles (SAMs). China is deploying modern surface-to-air
missile (SAM) systems across from Taiwan, including long-range and high-altitude
systems that have an advertised range sufficient to cover the entire Taiwan Strait,
which is roughly 100 nautical miles (185 kilometers) wide. Advanced SAMs may
have some effectiveness against stealthy aircraft. Longer- and shorter- range SAM
systems deployed along China’s coast opposite Taiwan would in combination give
report on China’s military from the International Assessment and Strategy Center authored
by Richard Fisher.
23
The MARV-equipped version of the missile was referred to as the DF-21C in a briefing
by Robert O. Work and Thomas P. Ehrhard of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary
Assessments (CSBA) presented on July 11, 2007, in room S-211 of the Capitol, entitled
“The Unmanned Combat Air System Carrier Demonstration Program: A New Dawn for
Naval Aviation?” See also Wendell Minnick, “China Developing Anti-Ship Ballistic
Missiles,” Defense News, January 14, 2008.
24
2007 DOD CMP, p. 17.
25
Current and Projected National Security Threats to the United States, Vice Admiral
Lowell E. Jacoby, U.S. Navy, Director, Defense Intelligence Agency, Statement for the
Record [before the] Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 16 February 2005, p. 13. See
also Current and Projected National Security Threats to the United States, Vice Admiral
Lowell E. Jacoby, U.S. Navy, Director, Defense Intelligence Agency, Statement For the
Record [before the] Senate Armed Services Committee, 17 March 2005, p. 13.
26
2007 DOD CMP, p. 17. For a recent article discussing China’s ASCMs, see Robert
Hewson, “Dragon’s Teeth — Chinese Missiles Raise Their Game,” Jane’s Navy
International, January/February 2007: 19-23.
CRS-8
China a multilayer defense against enemy aircraft seeking to operate over the Strait
or approach that portion of China’s coast.27
Land-Based Aircraft. China is introducing increasing numbers of modern
and capable (so-called fourth-generation) land-based fighters and strike fighters into
the PLA Air Force and PLA Naval Air Force. These include Russian-made Su-27s
and Su-30s and indigenously produced F-10s and F-11s. At least some of the strike
fighters will be armed with modern ASCMs. China is also upgrading the ASCMs
carried by its land-based maritime bombers. The effectiveness of China’s combat
China a multilayer defense against enemy aircraft seeking to operate over the Strait
or approach that portion of China’s coast.16
Land-Based Aircraft. China is introducing increasing numbers of modern
and capable (so-called fourth-generation) land-based fighters and strike fighters into
the PLA Air Force and PLA Naval Air Force. These include Russian-made Su-27s
and Su-30s and indigenously produced F-10s and F-11s. At least some of the strike
fighters will be armed with modern ASCMs. China is also upgrading the ASCMs
carried by its land-based maritime bombers. The effectiveness of China’s combat
13
The MARV-equipped version of the missile was referred to as the DF-21C in a briefing
by Robert O. Work and Thomas P. Ehrhard of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary
Assessments (CSBA) presented on July 11, 2007, in room S-211 of the Capitol, entitled
“The Unmanned Combat Air System Carrier Demonstration Program: A New Dawn for
Naval Aviation?” See also Wendell Minnick, “China Developing Anti-Ship Ballistic
Missiles,” Defense News, January 14, 2008.
14
Bill Gertz, “Inside the Ring,” Washington Times, July 20, 2007: 6. (Item entitled “New
Chinese Missiles”). The article stated that it was reporting information from forthcoming
report on China’s military from the International Assessment and Strategy Center authored
by Richard Fisher.
15
16
2007 DOD CMP, p. 17.
See, for example, Figure 9 (the map entitled “Taiwan Strait SAM and SRBM Coverage”)
in 2008 DOD CMP, p. 42.
CRS-6
aircraft could be enhanced by new support aircraft, including tankers and airborne
warning and control system (AWACS) aircraft.
China’s land-based naval aircraft inventory includes, among other things, 24
Russian-made Su-30 MKK 2 Flanker land-based fighters whose delivery was
completed in 2004. The Su-30 is a derivative of the Su-27. Some of the Su-30s
might eventually be fitted with the Russian-made Kh-35 ASCM. (China’s air force
operates at least 130 Su-27s; these aircraft could be used for fleet-defense
operations.)
China’s navy also operates 36 JH-7 land-based fighter-bombers that were
delivered between 1998 and 2004. The planes can be armed with Chinese-made C701, C-801, or C-802 ASCMs or laser-guided bombs, and might be fitted in the
future to carry Russian-made Kh-31 ASCMs.
Carrier-Capable Aircraft. China reportedly has been negotiating with Russia
on the purchase 48 to 50 carrier-capable Su-33 Flanker D naval fighters. The Su-33,
a derivative of the Su-27 design, can operate from aircraft carriers using a ski-jump
ramp and is capable of in-flight refueling. One source states:
Since 2005 this analyst has tracked China’s aggressive pursuit of its carrier
air wing. This has included negotiations to purchase modified Sukhoi Su-33
carrier fighters, which have yet to reach any conclusion, as well as the Shenyang
Aircraft Co.’s efforts to copy the Su-33, which have included the purchase of
Su-33 prototypes from Ukraine. But an additional PLA Navy carrier air wing
candidate might be the naval version of Russia’s 5th generation fighter. Or,
perhaps a naval version of China’s 5th generation fighter. In November a
Chinese commentator asserted that China’s 5th generation fighter could fly as
early as 2014 to 2015. Chinese sources indicate that China is developing a
15-ton maximum thrust version of the Taihang engine, which conceivably could
support a Chinese “5th generation” supercruise mission.28
Another source states that
27
See, for example, Figure 7 (the map entitled “Taiwan Strait SAM coverage”) in 2007
DOD CMP, p. 31.
28
Richard Fisher, Jr., “Chinese Dimensions of the 2007 Dubai Airshow,” online article
available at [http://www.strategycenter.net/printVersion/print_pub.asp?pubID=179]
Supercruise refer’s to an aircraft’s ability to cruise at supersonic speeds without having to
use the afterburners on its engines.
CRS-9
China has acquired one of the T-10K naval FLANKER prototype[s] from the
Ukraine. Shortly after EURONAVAL 2006, Russian authorities confirmed that
two Sukhoi Su-33 FLANKER aircraft had been ordered by China. [The]
Anticipated order — by Moscow’s estimates — is [that another] 48-50 [are]
likely to follow over the coming five years in batches of 12 to 18 aircraft each,
with [a] total contract value of about US$2.5Bn. Such numbers would likely
equip three PLA-N Air Regiments (squadron[s]), plus a smaller dedicated
training squadron....
The SU-33’s Mach 2+ speed, 3,000km range and great variety of weapon
options, enhances current PLA-N offshore capability, should a limited number
be based on the ex-Varyag in the next few years. Weapons likely to be acquired
by China would include the Novator KS-172 300km range ASM, Kh-59MK antiship and Kh-31 ARM missiles, plus Vympel R-77 AAM[s], and with PLA-N
already buying sub-launched Novator[s], the air-launched 3M-54E ALCM is
very likely to be eventually added to Su-33 weapon options.29
One source states that “Reports in the PRC media indicate that China will also
configure its new Jian-10 fighter for carrier operations,”30 while another similarly
states that “In August 2005 Russian sources interviewed at the Moscow Airshow
offered confirmation of China’s carrier plans in that two Russian companies offered
that China was interested in two types of future carrier combat aircraft, the Sukhoi
Su-33 and the Chengdu J-10 modified with a new Russian engine thrust vector to
enable slower carrier landing speeds.”31
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). DOD states that “acquisition of
UAVs and UCAVs,32 including the Israeli HARPY [UCAV], expands China’s
options for long-range reconnaissance and strike.”33 Another source states that
“Chinese sources have also recently suggested that China is actively developing
unmanned combat aircraft for carrier operations.34
Submarines. China’s submarine modernization effort, which is producing a
significantly more modern and capable submarine force, has attracted substantial
29
Keith Jacobs, “PLA-Navy Update,” Naval Forces, No. 1, 2007: 21, 24.
30
17 Some sources state that China may
create a carrier-capable version of its J-10 fighter.18
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). DOD stated in 2007 that “acquisition
of UAVs and UCAVs,19 including the Israeli HARPY [UCAV], expands China’s
options for long-range reconnaissance and strike.”20 Another source states that
“Chinese sources have also recently suggested that China is actively developing
unmanned combat aircraft for carrier operations.21
Naval Mines. China is believed to have an inventory of tens of thousands of
naval mines of various types, including modern designs. Chinese naval publications
demonstrate a strong interest in the use of naval mines in conflicts or blockades
situations, and particularly for countering U.S. submarines. As some observers have
17
See, for example, Richard Fisher, Jr., “Chinese Dimensions of the 2007 Dubai Airshow,”
online article available at [http://www.strategycenter.net/printVersion/print_pub.asp?
pubID=179], and Keith Jacobs, “PLA-Navy Update,” Naval Forces, No. 1, 2007: 21, 24.
18
See John J. Tkacik, Jr., China’s Quest for a Superpower Military, Heritage Foundation
Backgrounder No. 2036, May 17, 2007, pp. 12-13.
31
; Testimony of Richard D. Fisher, Jr., for
a hearing held on March 16, 2006, before the
USCC, pp. 5-6.
32 U.S.-China Economic and Security Review
Commission, pp. 5-6.
19
UCAV means unmanned combat aerial vehicle (i.e., an armed UAV).
3320
2007 DOD CMP, p. 18. The report statesstated further that “The Israelis transferred HARPY
UCAVs to China in 2001 and conducted maintenance on HARPY parts during 2003-2004.
In 2005, Israel began to improve government oversight of exports to China by strengthening
controls of military exports, establishing controls on dual-use exports, and increasing the
role of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in export-related decisions.” (Page 28)
34
21
Richard Fisher, Jr., “Chinese Dimensions of the 2007 Dubai Airshow,” online article
available at [http://www.strategycenter.net/printVersion/print_pub.asp?pubID=179]
CRS-10
attention and concern.35 The effort in recent years has involved the acquisition of at
least five classes of submarines, making it, in terms of number of designs involved,
one of the more ambitious submarine-acquisition efforts on record by any country.
China by the end of 2006 completed taking delivery on eight Russian-made Kiloclass non-nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSs) that are in addition to four Kilos
that China purchased from Russia in the 1990s,36 and is building four other classes
of submarines, including the 7
noted,22 detailed open-source discussions of China’s naval mining capabilities are
few in number. A recent example of such a discussion appeared in the Winter 2007
edition of Undersea Warfare, a publication of the U.S. Navy’s submarine
community.23 See Appendix B for a lengthy excerpt from this article, as well as
excerpts from other publications.
Submarines. China’s submarine modernization effort, which is producing a
significantly more modern and capable submarine force, has attracted substantial
attention and concern. China by the end of 2006 completed taking delivery on eight
Russian-made Kilo-class non-nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSs) that are in
addition to four Kilos that China purchased from Russia in the 1990s.24 China also
has recently built or is building four other classes of submarines, including the
following:
!
a new nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) design
called the Jin class or Type 094;
!
a new nuclear powered attack submarine (SSN) design called the
Shang class or Type 093;
!
a new SS design called the Yuan class or Type 041;37 and
!
! (or Type
039A);25 and
!
another (and also fairly new) SS design called the Song class or
Type 039/039G.
Along with the Kilo-class boats, these four classes of indigenously built
submarines are expected to be much more modern and capable than China’s aging
older-generation submarines.
Some sources state that a successor to the Type 093Shang class SSN design, called the Type
Type 095 SSN design, is in development.3826
China’s submarines are armed with one or more of the following: ASCMs, wireguided and wake-homing torpedoes, and mines. China’s eight recently delivered
Kilos are reportedly armed with the highly capable SS-N-27 Sizzler ASCM.39
35
For a detailed discussion of China’s submarine modernization program and a strong
expression of concern regarding the implications of this effort for Taiwan and the United
States, see the statement of Lyle J. Goldstein and William Murray as printed in 2/6/04
USCC hearing, pp. 129-156. Goldstein and Murray’s written statement was also published
as a journal article; see Lyle Goldstein and William Murray, “Undersea Dragons, China’s
Maturing Submarine Force,” International Security, Spring 2004, pp. 161-196. See also
Richard R. Burgess, “Sub Reliance,” Seapower, February 2007: 20-22.
36
22
See, for example, Norman Polmar, “Is There a Mine Threat?” U.S. Naval Institute
Proceedings, February 2008: 88-89.
23
Andrew Erickson, Lyle Goldstein, and William Murray, “China’s Undersea Sentries,”
Undersea Warfare, Winter 2007, available online at:
[http://www.navy.mil/navydata/cno/n87/usw/issue_33/china.html]
24
A previous CRS report discussed these four Kilo-class boats at length. See CRS Report
RL30700, China’s Foreign Conventional Arms Acquisitions: Background and Analysis, by
Shirley Kan (Coordinator), Christopher Bolkcom, and Ronald O’Rourke.
3725
Some sources believe the Yuan class to be a variant of the Song class and refer to the
Yuan class as the Type 039A.
3826
See, for example, “2018 — deadline for Taiwan invasion?” available online at
[http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2007/09/2018-deadline-for-taiwan-invasion.html], which
states that “[the first] 095’s reactor vessel is supposed to be finished by 2010. So, the
construction of [the first] 095 should start by early 2010s and be finished and commissioned
between 2016-2018 (using 093’s [development] path).”
39
There are also reports that the Kilos might also be armed with the Shkval, a Russian-made,
supercavitating, high-speed torpedo, and that China might be building its own
supercavitating torpedoes. (Statement of Lyle J. Goldstein and William Murray as printed
CRS-11
China’s four older Kilos reportedly are to be refitted in Russia, with the upgrades
likely to include the installation of the SS-N-27.
Although ASCMs are often highlighted as sources of concern, wake-homing
torpedoes can also be very difficult for surface ships to counter. In addition to some
combination of ASCMs, torpedoes, and mines, Jin-class SSBNs will carry a new type
of submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), and Shang-class SSNs may carry
LACMs.
Although China’s aging Ming-class (Type 035) submarines are based on old
technology and are much less capable than China’s newer-design submarines, China.
CRS-8
Kilos are reportedly armed with the highly capable SS-N-27 Sizzler ASCM. China’s
four older Kilos reportedly are to be refitted in Russia, with the upgrades possibly
including the installation of the SS-N-27. In addition to other weapons, Shang-class
SSNs may carry LACMs. Although ASCMs are often highlighted as sources of
concern, wake-homing torpedoes can also be very difficult for surface ships to
counter.
Each Jin-class SSBN is expected to be armed with 10 or 12 JL-2 nuclear-armed
submarine-launched ballistic missiles.27 DOD estimates that these missiles will enter
service in 2009-2010,28 and that they will have a range of 7,200 kilometers (about
3,888 nautical miles).29 Such a range could permit Jin-class SSBNs to attack
!
!
!
!
targets in Alaska (except the Alaskan panhandle) from protected
bastions close to China;30
targets in Hawaii (as well as targets in Alaska, except the Alaskan
panhandle) from locations south of Japan;
targets in the western half of the 48 contiguous states (as well as
Hawaii and Alaska) from mid-ocean locations west of Hawaii; and
targets in all 50 states from mid-ocean locations west of Hawaii.
Although China’s aging Ming-class (Type 035) submarines are based on old
technology and are much less capable than China’s newer-design submarines, China
27
2008 DOD CMP, p. 25.
28
2008 DOD CMP, p. 3.
29
2008 DOD CMP, p. 26 (Figure 4) and p. 56 (Figure 17).
30
A map published by DOD (2008 DOD CMP, p. 26 [Figure 4]) shows a range ellipse for
the JL-2 which, upon inspection, appears to show the missile as having a range of no more
than about 6,500 kilometers, rather than the 7,200 kilometers indicated in the legend to the
map and elsewhere in the DOD report. In addition, the JL-2 range ellipse appears centered
on a launching point that is more or less west of Shanghai and perhaps 200 or more statute
miles inland from the sea. This combination of apparent range and launching point appears
to be why the map shows the JL-2 as having sufficient range to attack only the western half
of the Aleutian island chain and perhaps the western coast of mainland Alaska (the section
of Alaska’s coast that is directly opposite the Russian coast). A missile with a range of
7,200 kilometers that is launched from an ocean location close to China’s eastern coast
would have sufficient range to attack all of Alaska except the Alaskan panhandle.
DOD in 2007 assessed the range of the JL-2 as 8,000 kilometers. (2007 DOD CMP, pp. 3,
19 [Figure 3], and 42 [Figure 14].) A map published in 2007 by DOD (2007 DOD CMP,
p. 19 [Figure 3]) showed JL-2s with a range of 8,000 kilometers as capable of attacking
targets in the continental United States that are north and west of a line running from central
or southern California to northern Minnesota. For a missile with a range of 8,000
kilometers, the launching point that results in this target-coverage line is an inland location
at or near the extreme northern tip of China — a location northeast of Mongolia that is
roughly 700 statute miles inland from the sea, with the approximate geographic coordinates
of 53oN, 125oE. This location also appeared to be the assumed launching point for some of
the land-based ballistic missiles shown in the map. The JL-2 appears to have been assigned
this inland launching point in the map to simplify the presentation of the target-coverage
arcs shown in the figure.
CRS-9
may decide that these older boats have continued value as minelayers or as bait or
decoy submarines that can be used to draw out enemy submarines (such as U.S.
SSNs) that can then be attacked by more modern PLA Navy submarines.40
Table 1 shows actual and projected commissionings of Chinese submarines by
class since 1995, when China took delivery of its first two Kilo-class boats. As
shown in Table 1, observers expectexpected China to have a total of 28 Shang, Kilo, Yuan,
and Song class submarines in commission by the end of 2007. Although Table 1
shows a total of 13 Song-class boats, DOD states that China has a total of 10 Songclass boats.31 DOD also states that “The YUAN-class SS is now assessed to be in
full production and will be ready for service by 2010.”32
The figures in Table 1 show that between 1995 and 2007, China placed into
service a total of 37 submarines, or an average of about 2.8 submarines per year.
This average commissioning rate, if sustained indefinitely, would eventually result
in a steady-state submarine force of 57 to 85 boats of all kinds, assuming an average
submarine life of 20 to 30 years. Excluding the 12 Kilos purchased from Russia,4133
total number of domestically produced submarines placed into service between 1995
and 2007 is 25, or an average of about 1.9 per year. This average rate of domestic
production, if sustained indefinitely, would eventually result in a steady-state force
in 2/6/04 USCC hearing, p. 139.) A supercavitating torpedo surrounds itself with an
envelope of gas bubbles, which dramatically reduces its resistance as it moves through the
water, thereby permitting very high underwater speeds. The Shkval has a reported speed of
200 knots or more.
40
One observer states that
older and less sophisticated submarines will likely be employed to screen the
higher-value assets. Chinese sources openly describe using certain submarines
as “bait.” Employing this tactic, it is conceivable that United States submarines
could reveal their own presence to lurking Kilos by executing attacks against
nuisance Mings and Romeos. No wonder China continues to operate the
vessels, which are widely derided as obsolete by Western observers. The threat
from these older submarines cannot be dismissed out of hand. Informal United
States Navy testimony suggests that the PLAN can operate the older classes of
diesel submarines with surprising tactical efficiency. (Statement of Lyle J.
Goldstein and William Murray as printed in 2/6/04 USCC hearing, p. 153)
41
of domestically produced submarines of 38 to 58 boats of all kinds, again assuming
an average submarine life of 20 to 30 years.
As shown in Table 1, only two of the submarines placed into service between
1995 and 2007 are nuclear powered. If the mix of China’s submarine-production
effort shifts at some point to include a greater proportion of nuclear-powered boats,
it is possible that the greater resources required to produce nuclear-powered boats
might result in a reduction in the overall submarine production rate. If so, and if such
a reduced overall rate were sustained indefinitely, it would eventually result in a
smaller steady-state submarine force of all kinds than the figures calculated in the
preceding paragraph.
31
2008 DOD CMP, p. 4.
32
2008 DOD CMP, p. 4.
33
Some observers might view the purchase of the 12 Kilos as a one-time event intended to
jump-start the modernization of China’s submarine force. Other observers, which conceding
the value of the 12 Kilos in jump-starting the modernization effort, might argue that
additional foreign purchases of Russian-made submarines in the future are still quite
possible.
CRS-12
of domestically produced submarines of 38 to 58 boats of all kinds, again assuming
an average submarine life of 20 to 30 years.10
Table 1. PLA Navy Submarine Commissionings
Actual (1995-2006) and Projected (2007-2010)
Jin
(Type
094)
SSBN
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Shang
(Type
093)
SSN
Kilo SS
(Russianmade)
Yuan
(Type
041)
SSf
Song
(Type
039) SS
2b
1
1
2
2
1b
1b
1
2
1
e
1
1e
1e
1
1d
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
1
4
3
Ming
(Type
035) SSa
1
1
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
2
3
3
2c
1
1
1
Total
3
1
2
3
2
1
3
1
2
4
7
7
1
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Source: Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, and previous editions.
Note: n/a = data not available.
a. Figures for Ming-class boats are when the boats were launched (i.e., put into the water for final
construction). Actual commissioning dates for these boats may have been later.
b. First four boats, commissioned in the 1990s, are to be refitted in Russia; upgrades are likely to
include installation of SS-N-27 ASCM.
c. No further units expected after the 12th and 13th shown for 2006.
d. Construction of a third ship (possibly to a modified design) may have started but has not been
confirmed. A total of five boats is expected.
e. Additional units are expected, perhaps at two-year intervals. A total of four boats is expected. One
news article, citing information from the Office of Naval Intelligence, states that a total of five
are expected. (Bill Gertz, “China Expands Sub Fleet,” Washington Times, March 2, 2007.)
f. Some sources believe the Yuan class to be a variant of the Song class and refer to the Yuan class
as the Type 039A.
As shown in Table 1, only two of the submarines placed into service between
1995 and 2007 are nuclear powered. If the mix of China’s submarine-production
effort shifts at some point to include a greater proportion of nuclear-powered boats,
it is possible that the greater resources required to produce nuclear-powered boats
might result in a reduction in the overall submarine production rate. If so, and if such
CRS-13
a reduced overall rate were sustained indefinitely, it would eventually result in a
smaller steady-state submarine force of all kinds than the figures calculated in the
preceding paragraph.
ONI stated in 2004 that “Chinese diesel submarine force levels are stabilizing
as quality replaces quantity,” and published a graph accompanying this statement
suggesting that the figure may stabilize at a level between 25 and 50.42
Another
(DOD stated in 2008 that up tp five might be built. [2008 DOD CMP, p. 25])
f. Some sources believe the Yuan class to be a variant of the Song class and refer to the Yuan class
as the Type 039A.
One set of observers states:
In order to grasp the energy that China is now committing to undersea
warfare, consider that during 2002-2004 China’s navy launched thirteen
submarines while simultaneously undertaking the purchase of submarines from
Russia on an unprecedented scale. Indeed, China commissioned thirty-one new
submarines between 1995 and 2005. Given this rapid evolution, appraisals of
China’s capability to field competent and lethal diesel submarines in the littorals
CRS-11
have slowly changed from ridicule to grudging respect of late. China’s potential
for complex technological development is finally being taken seriously abroad.4334
Another observer states:
Looking ahead, further modern conventional boats are expected to be constructed
as the 27 older and less capable units (Romeo and Ming classes) are paid off
[i.e., retired] and, while predictions are hazardous, an overall force level of about
40-50 boats is expected.4435
Another observer states:
China’s submarine fleet is now considered the PLAN’s most “potent
strength.” Since 1995, the PLAN has commissioned about 31 new submarines,
including two nuclear-powered submarines based on advanced Russian
technology. Eight submarines were commissioned in 2005, and seven were
commissioned in 2006, including new Song-class boats and a Yuan-class boat
heavily inspired by Russia’s Amur-class sub with its anechoic tile coatings and
quiet seven-bladed skewed propeller. The reported incorporation of
“air-independent propulsion” systems that permit submarines to operate
underwater for up to 30 days would make the Song and Yuan submarines
virtually undetectable to existing U.S. surveillance networks.
In addition, China has three new nuclear-powered submarine design and
construction programs. The Type-093 Shang-class nuclear attack boat and the
Type-094 Jin-class nuclear ballistic missile submarine programs are underway.
Two Shang submarines are deployed, and three are under construction, and five
Jin-class ballistic missile submarines are reportedly under construction. Five
Type-095 submarines, a larger version of the Shang/Jin hull, are also under
development. Together with its procurement program for improved Russian-
42
2004 ONI WMC, p. 11. The range of 25 to 50 is based on visual inspection of the graph.
43
Andrew S. Erickson and Lyle J. Goldstein, “China’s Future Submarine Force: Insights
From Chinese Writings,” Naval War College Review, Winter 2007: 55.
44
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, p. 31 (Executive Overview).
CRS-14
madeRussianmade Kilo-class submarines, China has at least six new submarine programs
under way simultaneously — a submarine development campaign that is
unprecedented in peacetime. China will have at least 34 advanced submarines
deployed in the Pacific by 2010 — some analysts expect as many as 50 to 60 —
assuming that those under construction will be completed within three years.
China will certainly have over 60 advanced submarines by 2020.4536
Another observer states:
Although China is modernizing its submarine force, it is not “expanding”
it. Since the mid-1980s, the force has been in steady decline from nearly 120
boats to roughly 55 operational submarines today. The U.S. Navy expects the
force will level out around 40 boats in the next decade.
34
Andrew S. Erickson and Lyle J. Goldstein, “China’s Future Submarine Force: Insights
From Chinese Writings,” Naval War College Review, Winter 2007: 55.
35
36
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, p. 31 (Executive Overview).
John J. Tkacik, Jr., China’s Quest for a Superpower Military, Heritage Foundation
Backgrounder No. 2036, May 17, 2007, pp. 9-10. A footnote at the end of this quoted
passage states: “Including at least five Type-94 Jins, five Type-093 Shangs, five Type-095s,
one Yuan, 13 Songs, and 13 Kilo 877s and 636s.”
CRS-12
The decline of the submarine fleet is part of a transition where large older
classes are being phased out and replaced with newer but less numerous
submarine classes.4637
Another source states:
We were seeing 3 to 4 [Type] 039s launched per year when it was finally in mass
production. We have seen either the 2nd or the 3rd unit of 039A [aka Type 041]
Yuan class under construction recently. It looks like PLAN has finally sorted out
enough issues in [the] Yuan [class design] to mass produce it. I’m guessing we
will see 3-6 [Type] 039As coming out a year for the next couple of years. And
after that, we will see the successor to the 039 class.4738
This source also states:
The mass production of Yuan ([Type] 039A) [class boats] has recently started.
It’s hard to see that this will continue more than the mass production run of 3rd
variants of [the] Song [class design]. So, we might see 10 Yuan at most.
Although, I think China will soon be developing a class of conventional
submarine to match [the German] U-214, [the French] Scorpene and [the
Russian] Amur [designs]. I’m guessing [the Japanese] Oyashio and [the
Australian] Collins [class designs] are still in a league of their own. Either way,
this new class will most likely endure a long initial production process like [the]
Song [class] did before mass production. Although judging from Song’s
production of 4 per year (at its height), it shouldn’t be long before [the] Yuan
45
John J. Tkacik, Jr., China’s Quest for a Superpower Military, Heritage Foundation
Backgrounder No. 2036, May 17, 2007, pp. 9-10. A footnote at the end of this quoted
passage states: “Including at least five Type-94 Jins, five Type-093 Shangs, five Type-095s,
one Yuan, 13 Songs, and 13 Kilo 877s and 636s.”
46
Federation of American Scientists (FAS), “China’s Submarine Fleet Continues Low Patrol
Rate,” published online at [http://fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/02/].
47
“PLAN looking forward to 2008,” available online at
[http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2007/12/plan-looking-forward-to-2008.html]
CRS-15
[class] or this new diesel class replace[s] all the Mings plus earlier [the] Song
class submarines.4839
Although China is modernizing its submarine force through the construction of
new boats, one report, citing U.S. Navy data (see Table 2), shows the annual rate of
Chinese submarine patrols to be relatively low.
Table 2. Chinese Submarine Patrols Per Year, 1981-2007
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
1
0
2
2
2
1
1
5
2
0
1
1
0
1
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
1
1
2
3
2
6
3
4
3
3
0
2
6
1
95
1
82
0
96
1
83
2
97
2
84
2
98
3
85
2
99
2
86
1
00
6
87
1
01
3
88
5
02
4
89
2
03
3
90
0
04
3
91
1
05
0
92
1
06
2
93
0
07
6
94
1
Source: Federation of American Scientists (FAS), “Chinese Submarine Patrols Rebound in 2007, but
Remain Limited,” published online at [http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2008/01/chinese_submarine_
patrols_rebo.php]. FAS states in the online article that it received the data from the U.S. Navy under
the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA).
37
Federation of American Scientists (FAS), “China’s Submarine Fleet Continues Low Patrol
Rate,” published online at [http://fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/02/].
38
“PLAN looking forward to 2008,” available online at
[http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2007/12/plan-looking-forward-to-2008.html]
39
“2018 — deadline for Taiwan invasion?” available online at
[http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2007/09/2018-deadline-for-taiwan-invasion.html].
CRS-13
The Federation of American Scientists (FAS), which published the figures
shown in Table 2, states:
China’s entire fleet of approximately 55 general-purpose submarines
conducted a total of six patrols during 2007, slightly better than the two patrols
conducted in 2006 and zero in 2005.
The 2007 performance matches China’s all-time high of six patrols
conducted in 2000, the only two years since 1981 that Chinese submarines
conducted more than five patrols in a single year.
The new information, obtained by Federation of American Scientists from
the U.S. Navy under the Freedom of Information Act, also shows that none of
China’s ballistic missile submarines have ever conducted a deterrent patrol.
In Perspective
Just what constitutes a Chinese “patrol” is secret, according to the U.S.
Navy, but it probably refers to an extended voyage away from the homeport area
(see here for further definitions). The seven Chinese patrols conducted in 2007
is but a fraction of the number of patrols conducted by the U.S. submarine force,
which musters well over 100 patrols per year. But a comparison of U.S. and
Chinese submarine patrol levels is not possible because the two navies have very
different missions. China has no overseas military commitments and uses its
submarine fleet almost exclusively as a coastal defense force, whereas the U.S.
submarine force is constantly engaged in forward operations alone or with allies.
48
“2018 — deadline for Taiwan invasion?” available online at
[http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2007/09/2018-deadline-for-taiwan-invasion.html].
CRS-16
The Chinese patrol rate compares better with that of the Russian Navy,
which has largely ceased forward submarine operations compared with those of
the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Russian general purpose submarines
conducted seven patrols in 2007.
In historic perspective, the six Chinese submarine patrols conducted in
2007 continues a trend that China in this decade has sent slightly more
submarines on patrol than during the 1990s. Whereas Chinese submarines in the
1990s conducted an average of 1.2 patrols each year, the average has been 3.4
patrols since 2000.
About Those Boomers
Twenty-five years after it launched its first ballistic missiles submarine, Xia
(Type 092), China has yet to conduct its first deterrent patrol. The new
information confirms that neither the Xia, nor the two new Jin-class (Type 094)
ballistic missile submarines — the first of which was launched in 2004 — have
ever conducted a deterrent patrol....
Implications
Despite the rebound in general purpose submarine patrols, dramatic reports
from recent years about Chinese submarines operating inside Japanese territorial
waters or surfacing close to U.S. aircraft carriers have been largely absent in
2007. The meaning of the patrol rebound is yet unclear. After all, it follows a
complete absence of submarine patrols in 2005, the fourth year since 1981 that
CRS-14
China’s submarine fleet did not conduct any patrols despite introduction of
several new classes of more advanced submarines for greater reach. That
modernization has (not yet) manifested itself in the form of a clear increase in
submarine patrols.
The patrol number does not say anything about what the submarines did
during the six patrols. They might have been basic attempts to sail far from shore
to test navigational equipment or communication with the homebase, or they
might have included more advanced tactical operations. They might have been
conducted by six different submarines, or only a couple.
Yet for the Chinese submarine force overall, six patrols do not provide very
much operational experience for more than 50 submarines and their crews. If
China did plan a more extended reach for its submarine force, one might expect
the patrol rate to continue to increase in the next couple of years. Only the future
will tell. But the operational experience from the 55 patrols conducted by the
entire submarine force between 1981 and the end of 2007 suggests that China’s
submarine force - at least for now - remains a coastal defense force.4940
Another observer, expressing a different view on the issue of the frequency of
Chinese submarine patrols, states that “Chinese submarines slip out into open seas
from underwater tunnels and are virtually undetectable.” Regarding an October 2006
incident involving a Song-class SS that surfaced near the U.S. aircraft carrier Kitty
49
Hans M. Kristensen, “Chinese Submarine Patrols Rebound in 2007, but Remain Limited,”
Federation of American Scientists Strategic Security Blog, available online at
[http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2008/01/chinese_submarine_patrols_rebo.php].
CRS-17
Hawk while it was operating near Okinawa, this observer states that after the
submarine was detected on the surface, the submarine “submerged and disappeared,
defeating all U.S. anti-submarine warfare (ASW) efforts to detect it.” The observer
states that
The ease with which the submarine maneuvered undetected into Japanese waters
and evaded U.S. and Japan Self Defense Force submarine sensors suggests that
China’s large submarine fleet engages in far more sea patrols than the U.S. has
any hope of tracking.5041
Another observer states that the October 2006 incident involving the Song-class
SS was
in contrast to claims that the Chinese submarine fleet conducted only two patrols
in 2006, according to information declassified by the U.S. Navy and obtained by
the Federation of American Scientists under the Freedom of Information Act.
Such relative inactivity seems at first extraordinary but can at least partly be
explained by probable ambiguity about what constitutes a “patrol.” However, a
more obvious reason is that half of China’s 26 modern (Yuan, Song, Kilo class)
submarines have entered service since 2004 and it would be surprising if it was
40
Hans M. Kristensen, “Chinese Submarine Patrols Rebound in 2007, but Remain Limited,”
Federation of American Scientists Strategic Security Blog, available online at
[http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2008/01/chinese_submarine_patrols_rebo.php].
41
John J. Tkacik, Jr., China’s Quest for a Superpower Military, Heritage Foundation
Backgrounder No. 2036, May 17, 2007, pp. 9 and 10.
CRS-15
not proving difficult to build up the necessary levels of training and experience
before more frequent out-of-area deployments can be undertaken.5142
Aircraft Carriers. The issue of whether and when China might deploy one
or or
more aircraft carriers, and what the design and capabilities of Chinese aircraft
carriers carriers
might be, has been a topic of discussion among government and nongovernment non-government
observers for the last several years.52 Developments since mid-2005
have suggested
to some observers that China now intends to complete the unfinished
ex-Russian
carrier Varyag, which China purchased from Russia several years ago,
and place it
into service in the near future, possibly as an aviation training ship.
The Varyag has an estimated full load displacement of about 58,500 tons,
compared to about 100,000 tons for a U.S. Navy Nimitz (CVN-68) class aircraft
carrier, about 42,000 tons for the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle (which
was commissioned in 2001), and about 65,000 tons to 70,000 tons for aircraft carriers
that the United Kingdom and France plan to commission into service between 2013
and 2016. It is estimated that the Varyag can embark an air wing of 18 Su-33 Flanker
fighters, compared to 70 or more aircraft on a Nimitz-class carrier, 36 aircraft on the
Charles de Gaulle, and 40 to 45 aircraft on the future UK and French carriers.
One source states that “Beijing statements allude more consistently to a 3-carrier
force requirement, which may or may not include the ex-Varyag.... Were a Chinese
50
John J. Tkacik, Jr., China’s Quest for a Superpower Military, Heritage Foundation
Backgrounder No. 2036, May 17, 2007, pp. 9 and 10.
51
52
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, p. 31 (Executive Overview).
For a journal article discussing at length the question of China’s potential development
and acquisition of aircraft carriers, see Andrew S. Erickson and Andrew R. Wilson,
“China’s Aircraft Carrier Dilemma,” Naval War College Review, Autumn 2006: 13-45.
CRS-18DOD states that “China has an active aircraft carrier research and design
program. If the leadership were to so choose, the PRC shipbuilding industry could
start construction of an indigenous platform by the end of this decade.”43
One source states that “Beijing statements allude more consistently to a 3-carrier
force requirement, which may or may not include the ex-Varyag.... Were a Chinese
carrier contract finalised in 2006, it would be 2011 before launching and 2014 before
commissioning; a second ship could follow in 2016.”5344
Another source states: “Interestingly, a U.S. source that recently spoke with high
PLA Navy officers relayed to the IASC [International Assessment and Strategy
Center] that these officers stated that China would eventually build four to six aircraft
carriers. In 2007 Chinese officials have been more willing to acknowledge their
ambitions to build large aircraft carriers, an ambition that had previously been
consistently denied.”54
DOD states that:
In October 2006, Lieutenant General Wang Zhiyuan, vice chairman of the
Science and Technology Commission of the PLA’s General Armament
Department stated that the “Chinese army will study how to manufacture aircraft
carriers so that we can develop our own.... [A]ircraft carriers are indispensable
if we want to protect our interests in oceans.”
China first began to discuss developing an indigenous aircraft carrier in the
late 1970s. In 1985, China purchased the Australian carrier the HMAS
Melbourne. Although the hull was scrapped, Chinese technicians studied the ship
and built a replica of its flight deck for pilot training. China purchased two
former Soviet carriers — the Minsk in 1998 and the Kiev in 2000. Neither carrier
was made operational; instead, they were used as floating military theme parks.
Nevertheless, both provided design information to PLA Navy engineers.
In 1998 China purchased the ex-Varyag, a Kuznetsov-class Soviet carrier
that was only 70 percent complete at the time of the Soviet Union’s collapse.
Recent deck refurbishment, electrical work, fresh hull paint with PLA Navy
markings, and expressed interest in Russia’s Su-33 fighter has re-kindled debate
about a Chinese carrier fleet. The PLA’s ultimate intentions for the Varyag
remain unclear, but a number of possibilities exist: turning it into an operational
aircraft carrier, a training or transitional platform, or a floating theme park — its
originally-stated purpose.
Regardless of Beijing’s final objective for the ex-Varyag, PLA Navy study
of the ship’s structural design could eventually assist China in creating its own
carrier program. Lieutenant General Wang stated that, “we cannot establish a real
naval force of aircraft carriers within three or five years.” Some analysts in and
out of government predict that China could have an operational carrier by the end
of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015); others assess the earliest it could deploy
an operational aircraft carrier is 2020 or beyond.5545
DOD states that:
There does not appear to be evidence that China has begun construction of
an aircraft carrier. However, evidence in recent years increasingly suggests
China’s leaders may be moving forward with an aircraft carrier program. For
example, beginning in early 2006 and with the release of China’s Eleventh Five
Year Plan, PRC-owned media reported on statements from high-level
42
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, p. 31 (Executive Overview).
43
2008 DOD CMP, p. 4.
44
Keith Jacobs, “PLA-Navy Update,” Naval Forces, No. 1, 2007: 24.
45
Richard Fisher, Jr., “Chinese Dimensions of the 2007 Dubai Airshow,” online article
available at [http://www.strategycenter.net/printVersion/print_pub.asp?pubID=179]
CRS-16
government and military officials on China’s intent to build aircraft carriers —
including a March 2007 statement from the then-minister of China’s Commission
on Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense (COSTIND).
Continued renovations to the former Soviet Kuznetsov-class aircraft carrier
suggest China may choose to use the platform for training purposes. Moreover,
Russian press has reported Chinese interest in acquiring Russian Su-33
carrier-borne fighters. In October 2006 a Russian press report suggested
early-stage negotiations were underway for China to purchase up to 50 such
aircraft at a cost of $2.5 billion. However, there has been no announcement of a
contract for the aircraft.
Analysts in and out of government project that China could not have an
operational, domestically-produced carrier before 2015. However, changes in
China’s shipbuilding capability and degree of foreign assistance to the program
could alter those projections.46
Another observer projects that China will return the Varyag to service in 2008,
possibly under the name Shi Lang, and that the ship might become fully operational
as an aviation training ship in 2010:
53
Keith Jacobs, “PLA-Navy Update,” Naval Forces, No. 1, 2007: 24.
54
Richard Fisher, Jr., “Chinese Dimensions of the 2007 Dubai Airshow,” online article
available at [http://www.strategycenter.net/printVersion/print_pub.asp?pubID=179]
55
2007 DOD CMP, pp. 22-24. Brackets and ellipses as in the original.
CRS-19
Procurement of an aircraft carrier capability has been a high priority for the
Chinese Navy since the 1990s. Ex-Varyag, the second of the Kuznetsov class
(the first of class, Admiral Kuznetsov, remains in service in the Russian Navy)
was between 70 and 80 per cent complete by early 1993 when building was
terminated after an unsuccessful attempt by the Russian Navy to fund
completion. Subsequently the ship was bought by China and, having been towed
through the Bosporus on 2 November 2001, arrived at Dalian in March 2002.
Since then, there have been conflicting reports about Chinese plans for the ship
but, following its emergence from dock in mid-2005 painted in military colours,
it is likely that it is intended to bring the ship into operational service. Work in
2006 included the apparent application of a non-skid surface to the flight deck.
Reports in November 2006 that China was negotiating to procure up to 50
Sukhoi Su-33 fighters was a further indicator of Chinese intentions. A further
major docking period is probably required to fit shafts and/or propellors and to
complete survey and renovation of hull fittings....
Initial sea trials are expected to start in 2008 after which an extensive
period of trials and training is likely to follow. It is unlikely that the ship will
begin operational flying training until about 2010. The ship’s (unconfirmed)
pennant number [83] suggests that her initial status will be as a training ship. The
aircraft inventory is not yet known but is likely to comprise a mixture of
Russian-built fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters. The ship’s name has also not
been confirmed; Admiral Shi Lang was commander-in-chief of the Manchu fleets
which conquered Taiwan in 1681.56
47
46
2008 DOD CMP, p. 38.
47
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, p. 122. This source similarly states at another point that
work being done on
the ex-Russian carrier Varyag (possibly to be named Shi Lang), continued at
Dalian during 2006 and there now seems little doubt that the ship is destined to
become the first Chinese aircraft carrier. The announcement in October 2006 by
CRS-17
Another observer presents a somewhat alternate view, stating:
The [new ship] that is probably most anticipated [for 2008] is the aircraft
carrier. Most people suspect that we will see this in JiangNan shipyard.... I do
believe that many of the suppliers have already delivered the necessary
components [for this ship]. I also believe that the ship will start construction in
2008, but we might not see anything useful for another 2 years. What about
Varyag? We’ve been waiting for progress ever since the second half of 2005
when the ship was first painted in PLAN colour. Since then, we’ve seen some
progress, but this [past] year [i.e., 2007] hasn’t brought about that much
[change]. The conventional wisdom is that China bought Varyag for study and
for training/preparing a future naval air wing. As time goes by, I have more and
more doubts toward latter. I almost feel like Varyag is being displayed as a decoy
56
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, p. 122. This source similarly states at another point that
work being done on
the ex-Russian carrier Varyag (possibly to be named Shi Lang), continued at
Dalian during 2006 and there now seems little doubt that the ship is destined to
become the first Chinese aircraft carrier. The announcement in October 2006 by
Rosoboron export, Russia’s arms export agency, that the Chinese government
was in negotiations to buy up to 50 Su-33 naval fighters was a clear indication
of intentions. A tentative timetable is for the ship to begin sea trials in 2008 with
a view to commencing operational flying training in about 2010. It may be some
years after that before the ship becomes fully operational and its initial status is
likely to be as a training ship and as a test-bed for the development of China’s
indigenous carrier programme.
(Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, p. 31 [Executive Overview])
CRS-20
of some sort. It is there to grab people’s attention on this old ship, and away from
works on China’s first indigenous carrier. Obviously, I’m not expecting much
progress in Varyag in 2008.5748
This source also states that:
there are some rumours recently that the [indigenous] carrier projects will start
in both Dalian and Shanghai shipyards. I’m not surprised that two will be built,
but I didn’t think Dalian would get any work.... They are supposedly looking for
something that is 60k+ in standard displacement, 317 m long, 70+ m wide and
[an ability to] carry 55+ aircrafts (of which 30+ [would be] J-11Cs, [plus] some
number of helicopters and possibly Y-7 AEWs).... At this point, I’d generally
take the cost rumours with a grain of salt. However, the carrier dimensions is
from a much better source and seems to be comparable to Varyag dimensions
(although a little larger). I do expect to see catapults on the first generation of
Chinese carriers.5849
Surface Combatants. China since the early 1990s has purchased four
Sovremenny-class destroyers from Russia and deployed nine new classes of
indigenously built destroyers and frigates (some of which are variations of one
another) that demonstrate a significant modernization of PLA Navy surface
combatant technology. The introduction of nine new destroyer and frigate designs
over a period of about 15 years is an undertaking with few parallels by any country
in recent decades. China has also deployed a new kind of fast attack craft that uses
a stealthy DOD states that China’s newest indigenously built destroyers
and frigates “reflect leadership’s priority on advanced anti-air warfare capabilities for
China’s naval forces, which has historically been a weakness of the fleet.”50 China
Rosoboron export, Russia’s arms export agency, that the Chinese government
was in negotiations to buy up to 50 Su-33 naval fighters was a clear indication
of intentions. A tentative timetable is for the ship to begin sea trials in 2008 with
a view to commencing operational flying training in about 2010. It may be some
years after that before the ship becomes fully operational and its initial status is
likely to be as a training ship and as a test-bed for the development of China’s
indigenous carrier programme.
(Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, p. 31 [Executive Overview])
48
“PLAN looking forward to 2008,” available online at
[http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2007/12/plan-looking-forward-to-2008.html]
49
“Latest from PLAN,” available online at
[http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2007/11/latest-from-plan.html].
50
2008 DOD CMP, pp. 4-5.
CRS-18
has also deployed a new kind of missile-armed fast attack craft that uses a stealthy
catamaran hull design.
Sovremenny-Class Destroyers. China in 1996 ordered two Sovremennyclass destroyers from Russia; the ships entered service in 1999 and 2001. China in
2002 ordered two additional Sovremenny-class destroyers from Russia; the ships
entered service in 2005 and 2006. Sovremenny-class destroyers are equipped with
the SS-N-22 Sunburn ASCM, a highly capable ASCM.5951 DOD says stated in 2007 that
the two ships
ordered in 2002 “are fitted with anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs) and
wide-area air
defense systems that feature qualitative improvements over the [two] earlier
earlier SOVREMENNYY-class DDGs China purchased from Russia.60 China reportedly
52 In light of
these improvements, DOD refers to these two ships as Sovremenny II class
destroyers.53 China reportedly has an option for another two Sovremenny-class ships.
Five New Indigenously Built Destroyer Classes. China since the early
1990s has built five new classes of destroyers, one of which is a variation of another.
Compared to China’s 16 older Luda (Type 051) class destroyers, which entered
service between 1971 and 1991, these five new destroyer classes are substantially
more modern in terms of their hull designs, propulsion systems, sensors, weapons,
57
“PLAN looking forward to 2008,” available online at
[http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2007/12/plan-looking-forward-to-2008.html]
58
“Latest from PLAN,” available online at
[http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2007/11/latest-from-plan.html].
59
A previous CRS report discussed the PLA Navy’s first two Sovremenny-class destroyers
and their SS-N-22 ASCMs at length. See CRS Report RL30700, op. cit.
60
2007 DOD CMP, p. 3. The DOD report spells Sovremenny with two “y”s at the end.
CRS-21
and electronics. A key area of improvement in the new destroyer designs is their antiair warfare (AAW) technology,61 which has been a significant PLA Navy
shortcoming.
Like the older Luda-class destroyers, these new destroyer classes are
armed with
ASCMs.
As shown in Table 3, China to date has commissioned only 1 or 2 ships in each
of these five classes, suggesting that a key purpose of at least some of these classes
may might have been
intended to serve as stepping stones in a plan to modernize the PLA Navy’s
surface combatant technology incrementally before committing to larger-scale series
production.62 One source says the limited production runs of these four designs to
date “might be financially related, or may relate to debate over what ships should
follow the Type 051C air defence and Type 052C multi-role classes, or that once the
Type 054A [frigate design] is accepted as the future missile frigate design, three or
four of the major warship shipyards will all be assigned to construction of this design,
delaying a future CG/DDG class.”63 Another source states that “It looks like [the]
052C [class] was stopped for a few years due to [the] JiangNan relocation [and the]
sorting out [of] all the issues on [the] 052B/C [designs].64
61
AAW is a term most frequently found in discussions of naval systems. Discussions of
systems in other military services tend to use the term air defense.
62
One observer states:
It is of note that the Chinese navy has chosen to adopt an incremental approach,
in which only two ships of each class are built, rather than opt for a longer
shipbuilding line with corresponding economies in development and building
costs and equipment commonality. A possible explanation is that the navy is on
a steep learning curve and that, rather than being cautious about the introduction
of new technology, it is keen to ensure that every ship introduced into service
reflects the latest developments.
(Jane’s Fighting Ships 2006-2007, p. 30 (Executive Overview))
Another set of observers states that “China was forced to cancel its production of the Luhu
class of destroyers because the U.S.-made gas turbine engines were no longer available after
the United States imposed export restrictions on military-related goods following the
Tiananmen Square incident in 1989. China’s newest operational destroyers use Ukrainian,
not Chinese, engines.” (2005 RAND report, p. 140.)
63
Keith Jacobs, “PLA-Navy Update,” Naval Forces, No. 1, 2007: 24. Emphasis as in the
original.
64
“2018 — deadline for Taiwan invasion?” available online at
[http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2007/09/2018-deadline-for-taiwan-invasion.html].
CRS-22 surface
combatant technology incrementally before committing to larger-scale series
production.54
The Luhu-class ships reportedly were ordered in 1985 but had their construction
delayed by a decision to give priority to the construction of six frigates that were
ordered by Thailand. The Luhai-class ship is believed to have served as the basis for
the Luyang-class designs. Compared to the Luhai, the Luyang I-class ships appear
51
A previous CRS report discussed the PLA Navy’s first two Sovremenny-class destroyers
and their SS-N-22 ASCMs at length. See CRS Report RL30700, op. cit.
52
2007 DOD CMP, p. 3. The DOD report spells Sovremenny with two “y”s at the end.
53
2008 DOD CMP, p. 2.
54
One source says the limited production runs of these four designs to date “might be
financially related, or may relate to debate over what ships should follow the Type 051C air
defence and Type 052C multi-role classes, or that once the Type 054A [frigate design] is
accepted as the future missile frigate design, three or four of the major warship shipyards
will all be assigned to construction of this design, delaying a future CG/DDG class.” (Keith
Jacobs, “PLA-Navy Update,” Naval Forces, No. 1, 2007: 24.) Another source states that
“It looks like [the] 052C [class] was stopped for a few years due to [the] JiangNan relocation
[and the] sorting out [of] all the issues on [the] 052B/C [designs]. (“2018 — deadline for
Taiwan invasion?” available online at [http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2007/09/2018
-deadline-for-taiwan-invasion.html].)
CRS-19
stealthier. DOD stated in 2008 that the Luyang I design is equipped with the
Russian-made SA-N-7B Grizzly SAM and the Chinese-made YJ-83 ASCM.55
Table 3. New PLA Navy Destroyer Classes
Class name
Type
Number
built
Hull number(s)
In service (actual or
projected)
Luhu
052
2
112, 113
1994, 1996
Luhai
051B
1
167
1999
Luyang I
052B
2
168, 169
2004
Luyang II
052C
2
170, 171
2004, 2005
Luzhou
051C
2
115, 116
2006, 2007
Source: Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008.
The Luhu-class ships reportedly were ordered in 1985 but had their
construction delayed by a decision to give priority to the construction of six frigates
that were ordered by Thailand. The Luhai-class ship is believed to have served as
the basis for the Luyang-class designs. Compared to the Luhai, the Luyang I-class
ships appear stealthier. DOD states that the Luyang I design is equipped with the
Russian-made SA-N-7B Grizzly SAM and the Chinese-made YJ-83 ASCM.65
The Luyang II-class ships appear to feature an even more capable AAW
system that includes a Chinese-made SAM system called the HHQ-9 that has an even
longer range, a vertical launch system (VLS), and a phased-array radar that is
outwardly somewhat similar to the SPY-1 radar used in the U.S.-made Aegis combat
system.6656
DOD saysstated in 2007 the Luzhou-class design “is designed for anti-air warfare.
It will be
equipped with the Russian SA-N-20 SAM system controlled by the TOMBSTONE
TOMBSTONE phased-array radar. The SA-N-20 more than doubles the range of
current PLA Navy
air defense systems marking a significant improvement in China’s
ship-borne air
defense capability.”6757 Both Luzhou-class ships have conducted sea
trials and are
expected to enter service during 2007.6858
If one or more of these destroyer designs (or a successor design) are put into
larger-scale production,
it would accelerate the modernization of China’s surface
combatant force. One
source states:
All signs are pointing to laying down of the successor to 052C in the beginning
[design] in the
beginning of next year [2008]. There is a lot of speculations on what would be
size and
65
2007 DOD CMP, pp. 3-4
66 armament on this ship. Many people have also speculated it to be the
first class of massed produced Destroyers after [the] Luda class.59
This source also states that:
55
2007 DOD CMP, pp. 3-4
56
For a detailed article about the Luyang II class, see James C. Bussert, “China Debuts
Aegis Destroyers,” Signal, July 2005, pp. 59-62. See also Fisher 7/27/05 testimony, p. 12.
67
57
2007 DOD CMP, p. 3.
6858
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, p. 31 (Executive Overview).
CRS-23
armament on this ship. Many people have also speculated it to be the first class
of massed produced Destroyers after [the] Luda class.69
This source also states that:
59
“PLAN looking forward to 2008,” available online at
[http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2007/12/plan-looking-forward-to-2008.html]
CRS-20
the new generation [Type] 052D [class] is suppose[d] to start construction in
early 2008 in Changxin. We could easily see production of 2 or more per year
until there are enough to replace the Ludas. Of course, each iteration will be
slightly better than the previous one.7060
Four New Indigenously Built Frigate Classes. China since the early 1990s
1990s has built four new classes of frigates, two of which are variations of two
others, that
are more modern than China’s 31 older Jianghu (Type 053) class frigates, which
which entered service between the mid-1970s and 1989. The four new frigate
classes, like
the new destroyer classes, feature improved AAW capabilities. Unlike
the new
destroyer designs, some of the new frigate designs have been put into larger-scale
largerscale series production. Table 4 summarizes the three new classes.
Table 4. New PLA Navy Frigate Classes
Class name
Jiangwei I
Jiangwei II
Jiangkai I
Jiangkai II
Type
Number
built or
building
Hull number(s)
In service
(actual or
projected)
053G H2G
4
539-542
1991-1994
053H3
10
between 521 and 567
1998-2005
054
2
525, 526
2005
054A
4
530 (lead ship)
2007-2008
Source: Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008.
Construction of Jiangwei I-class ships appears to have ceased. It is unclear
whether construction of Jiangwei II-class ships will continue after the 10th ship.
The Jiangkai I-class ships feature a stealthy design that somewhat resembles
France’s La Fayette-class frigate, which first entered service in 1996.7161 The Jiangkai
II-class ships are a modified version of the Jiangkai I-class design that features a
VLS system for its SAMs. One observer states, “Under construction at two
shipyards, it is likely that this design will be built in sufficient numbers to replace the
69
“PLAN looking forward to 2008,” available online at
[http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2007/12/plan-looking-forward-to-2008.html]
70
ageing Jianghu class frigates.”62 Another source similarly states that a total of 28 to
30 Type 054A frigates “are believed scheduled” for production to replace China’s
older-generation frigates.63
60
“2018 — deadline for Taiwan invasion?” available online at
[http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2007/09/2018-deadline-for-taiwan-invasion.html].
71
France sold a modified version of the La Fayette-class design to Taiwan; the six ships that
Taiwan built to the design entered service in 1996-1998. See also Fisher 7/27/05 testimony,
pp. 12-13.
CRS-24
ageing Jianghu class frigates.”72 Another source similarly states that a total of 28 to
30 Type 054A frigates “are believed scheduled” for production to replace China’s
older-generation frigates.73
One source states:
This [[ast] year [i.e., 2007], we have seen that all 4 initial [Type] 054A
[frigates] have been launched and commissioned. Sadly, we did not see a second
batch of 054A. Although it’s not as talked about, [the] Huangpu [HP] shipyard
also had a huge expansion this past year. While the dock was being used for
[building Type 022 fast attack craft] and the ocean tugging ship, [the] 054A
[program] was put on the back burners. I guess that showed the important
[importance] of these auxiliary ships, but also that PLAN wanted to test these
new ships out before building the second batch. With the Huangpu expansion,
we might see more 054 series [frigates] coming out in the future in [the] HP
[shipyard rather] than [the] HD [shipyard]. I would imagine that [the] 054A
[design] will begin construction again at both HD and HP next year. We might
see another 4 built next year. 74
Another source states:
A French source confirmed reports that as part of its license production
agreement, China has recently declared that it produced 24 SEMT Pielstick
diesel engines to support the production of six 3,500 ton Type 054A frigates;
each ship uses four of the diesels. This same French source was quite sure that
there would be a second production batch of 24 to support a second production
run for a total of 12 Type 054A frigates. So far three Type 054A frigates have
been launched since late 2006 from two shipyards, Hudong in Shanghai and
Huangpu in Guangzhou, with the fourth just launched by Hudong on May 23[,
2007]. At this rate it is possible that all 12 Type 054As will be built by the end
of 2009. The Type 054A marks a significant upgrade over the two Type 054
frigates launched in 2003, in that the former is outfitted with 32 new
vertical-launched versions of the 45km range Russian Altair Shtil-1.75
This source also states:
According the French and German sources interviewed at IMDEX, the
PLAN is developing a new class of frigate to accompany the Type 054A air
7261
France sold a modified version of the La Fayette-class design to Taiwan; the six ships that
Taiwan built to the design entered service in 1996-1998.
62
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, p. 129. This source states at another point that on
October 12, 2006, China launched (i.e., put into the water for final construction) “the first
of what is expected to be a large class of Jiangkai II [class] ships. Noteworthy features
include a vertical-launch system for the HHQ-16 missile.” (Jane’s Fighting Ships 20072008, p. 31 [Executive Overview].)
73
Keith Jacobs, “PLA-Navy Update,” Naval Forces, No. 1, 2007: 26.
74
“PLAN looking forward to 2008,” available online at
[http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2007/12/plan-looking-forward-to-2008.html]
75
Richard Fisher, Jr., “Chinese Aspects of Singapore’s IMDEX Naval Technology Show,”
online article available at
[http://www.strategycenter.net/printVersion/print_pub.asp?pubID=163] IMDEX refers to
a naval technology show held in Singapore.
CRS-25
defense frigate now in series production. There was apparently a competition
between the engines of the French firm SEMT Pielstick and Germany’s MTU,
to provide the new diesel engine which will be paired with a gas turbine. MTU
won. The new frigate will use two diesels and two turbines, a conventional
configuration that could support a range of mission requirements. But the sources
interviewed had no insights regarding the size, mission and configuration for this
new ship.76
63
Keith Jacobs, “PLA-Navy Update,” Naval Forces, No. 1, 2007: 26.
CRS-21
Fast Attack Craft. In addition to its 190 older fast attack craft, or FACs
(including 37 armed with ASCMs), China in 2004 introduced a new type of ASCMarmed fast attack craft, called the Houbei class (or, by some sources, the Type 022
class), that uses a stealthy, wave-piercing, catamaran hull. Observers believe the hull
design — one of the more advanced used by any navy in the world today — is based
on a design developed by a firm in Australia, a country which is a world leader in
high-speed catamaran designs. The Houbei class is being . The Houbei class is being
built in at least six
shipyards. At least 25 were in service as of 2007, and a total of
at least 40 are
expected.7764 One source states:
We’ve seen an astonishing number of [Type] 022s come out this [past] year [i.e.,
2007]. I originally estimated that the 022s will stop production by 2011.
However, it seems like 022 production will finish as early as next year [2008] if
this production rate continues. The production almost confuses me, because
PLAN has not shown this kind of urgency with any of its other recent platforms.
It brings us to the next point. It looks like 022 is replacing [older Type]
021/024/037 [ships] in the FAC/patrol kind of role. How many does PLAN really
need[?] I mentioned 100 as the number a year ago and was laughed at by certain
people. It now appears China might get even more than that if the production like
this continues until 2010.7865
In addition to the Houbei class, one source states that China in 2005 ordered 24
to 30 Molniya-class ASCM-armed fast attack craft from Russia. The Molniya class
is an upgraded version of the Russian Tarantul-class design that might be armed with
four SSNSS-N-22 ASCMs. The first four, according to this source, may be delivered by
late-2007
or early-2008.79
Amphibious Ships.
Type 071 Amphibious Ship. China is building a new class of amphibious
ship called the Type 071 class. The design has an estimated displacement of about
76
Richard Fisher, Jr., “Chinese Aspects of Singapore’s IMDEX Naval Technology Show,”
online article available at
[http://www.strategycenter.net/printVersion/print_pub.asp?pubID=163]
77
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, p. 31 (Executive Overview) and p. 136. See also Fisher
7/27/05 testimony, p. 13; “PRC Appears Ready To Field New Trimaran Fast Missile
Warship,” Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily, October 5, 2004; Yihong Chang, “First Sight
Of Chinese Catamaran,” Jane’s Defense Weekly, May 26, 2004.
78
“PLAN looking forward to 2008,” available online at
[http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2007/12/plan-looking-forward-to-2008.html]
79
Keith Jacobs, “PLA-Navy Update,” Naval Forces, No. 1, 2007: 27.
CRS-26
17,600 tons, compared with about 15,900 tons to 16,700 tons for the U.S. Navy’s
Whidbey Island/Harpers Ferry (LSD-41/49) class amphibious ships, which were
commissioned into service between 1985 and 1998, and about 25,900 tons for the
U.S. Navy’s new San Antonio (LPD-17) class amphibious ships, the first of which
was commissioned into service in 2006. The first Type 071 ship is expected to enter
service in 2008. The Type 071 design features a hull with clean, sloped sides — a
design that resembles the hulls of modern western amphibious ships and appears
intended to reduce the ship’s visibility to radar. One observer states:
After several years’ speculation, the existence of the [Type 071]
programme was confirmed when construction of a ship was initiated in
mid-2006. The programme constitutes a key component of the PLA(N)’s plan to
improve its sealift and power projection capabilities. Further ships are
expected....
The principal features of the ship include a large well deck area to
accommodate four Air Cushion Vehicles (ACV) in the aft two-thirds of the ship.
The ACVs are likely to access the ship through a stern gate. The ship may have
to ballast down for operation. There is a large stern helicopter flight deck and a
hangar. An internal garage deck for vehicles may be accessed via side ramps
(port and starboard). There is space for the HQ7 launcher which may be fitted at
a later date....
This ship represents a major enhancement of amphibious capability.80
Report of Potential Type 081 Amphibious Ship. In August 2007, it was
reported that
At the May 2007 IMDEX naval technology show in Singapore, a Chinese
industry source confirmed to Jane’s that China has a programme for a LHD [i.e.,
a large amphibious assault ship], but did not disclose details other than to note:
“We can now build that ship.”
However, late 2006 reports in India’s Force magazine noted that China
would build up to three Type 081 LHD ships and six Type 071 LPD vessels, the
first of which was launched in late December 2006. One Asian military source
has told Jane’s that the flat-deck Type 081 will displace about 20,000 tonnes, and
as such, would be similar in size to the French Mistral LHD.81
There have been no reports so far that China has starting building LHDs.
China’s interest in LHDs has been noted since the late 1990s and would form a
logical compliment to its Type 071 LPDs. Asian military sources put the Type
071 also at about 20,000 tonnes displacement with a capacity to carry up to 800
troops plus scores of armoured vehicles. One Asian military source tells Jane’s
that China could build two to eight Type 071s.82
80
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, p. 139.
81
A 20,000-ton LHD would also be about half the size of U.S. Navy LHDs.
82
Richard D. Fisher Jr., “Naval Gazing, Emerging Expeditionary Capabilities in the Western
Pacific,” Jane’s Intelligence Review, August 2007: 55.
CRS-27
One source states:
The most visible new class [of amphibious ships] is obviously the 071 LPD.
We’ve seen the first one joining service in SSF [the South Sea Fleet] as [hull
number] 998. We’ve yet to see work on a second unit. We know that [the] Dalian
[shipyard] and [the] HD shipyard both competed for the first 071 contract with
HD winning. It kind of made sense, because HD generally builds ships faster. I
believe we will see another unit of 071 being built next year [i.e., in 2008] and
that will be done at Dalian. At the same time, HD will probably start construction
of China’s first LHD. We’ve talked about the challenges surrounding a Chinese
LHD in the past, but there does seem to be enough political and military will at
this point for a unit of this class.83
Other New Amphibious Ships and Landing Craft. In addition to the Type
071 design, China between 2003 and 2005 commissioned into service three new
classes of smaller amphibious ships and landing craft. Each type was built at three
66
Amphibious Ships.
Type 071 Amphibious Ship. China is building a new class of amphibious
ship called the Type 071 class. The design has an estimated displacement of about
17,600 tons, compared with about 15,900 tons to 16,700 tons for the U.S. Navy’s
Whidbey Island/Harpers Ferry (LSD-41/49) class amphibious ships, which were
commissioned into service between 1985 and 1998, and about 25,900 tons for the
U.S. Navy’s new San Antonio (LPD-17) class amphibious ships, the first of which
was commissioned into service in 2006. The first Type 071 ship is expected to enter
service in 2008. The Type 071 design features a hull with clean, sloped sides — a
design that resembles the hulls of modern western amphibious ships and appears
intended to reduce the ship’s visibility to radar.
64
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, p. 31 (Executive Overview) and p. 136. See also Fisher
7/27/05 testimony, p. 13; “PRC Appears Ready To Field New Trimaran Fast Missile
Warship,” Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily, October 5, 2004; Yihong Chang, “First Sight
Of Chinese Catamaran,” Jane’s Defense Weekly, May 26, 2004.
65
“PLAN looking forward to 2008,” available online at
[http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2007/12/plan-looking-forward-to-2008.html]
66
Keith Jacobs, “PLA-Navy Update,” Naval Forces, No. 1, 2007: 27.
CRS-22
Report of Potential Type 081 Amphibious Ship. In August 2007, it was
reported that China might begin building a larger amphibious ship, called the Type
081, that might displace 20,000 tons.67
Other New Amphibious Ships and Landing Craft. In addition to the
Type 071 design, China between 2003 and 2005 commissioned into service three
new classes of smaller amphibious ships and landing craft. Each type was built at
three or four shipyards. Between these three other classes, China commissioned into
service a total of 20 amphibious ships and 10 amphibious landing craft in 2003-2005.
Additional units in some of these classes are possible. China also has numerous
older amphibious ships and landing craft of various designs.
Mine Countermeasures (MCM) Ships. China is building one or two new
classes two new classes
of mine countermeasures (MCM) ships called the Wozang class and the
Wochi class.
One observer states that “modernisation plans for the minecountermeasures force mine-countermeasures force
are difficult to discern. The first Wozang class [ship] entered
service in 2005 and
was expected to replace the [existing] T-43 [class mine warfare
ship]s, albeit that the
design looked very similar. This ship was then followed in
2006 by a longer version
known a the Wochi class. Little is known about the
capabilities of either vessel.”84
Naval Mines. Regarding naval mines, ONI states:
China is developing and exporting numerous advanced mines of all types. One
example is the wireless remote controlled EM57, a mine that offers many tactical
options. For example, the mine can be turned off and on remotely to prolong its
life, or it can be activated and deactivated to allow safe passage for friendly
vessels.85
DOD stated in 2003 that the PLA’s mines
include bottom and moored influence mines, mobile mines, remotely controlled
mines, command-detonated mines, and propelled-warhead mines. Use of
propelled-warhead mines in deep waters has the potential to deny enemy naval
formations large operational areas.86
83
“PLAN looking forward to 2008,” available online at
[http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2007/12/plan-looking-forward-to-2008.html]
84
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, p. 31 (Executive Overview) and p. 136.
85
2004 ONI WMC, p. 19.
86
2003 DOD CMP, p. 27.
CRS-28
DOD stated in 2002 that China “likely has enough mine warfare assets to lay a
good defensive and a modest offensive minefield using a wide variety of launch
platforms.”87
Another observer stated in a presentation that China has
a large inventory of mines. And we see a tremendous interest in some of the
most modern deadly mines going. These deep water rising mines [on the
projection screen] can be purchased from Russia. They have tremendous ability
to mine deeper waters where we would prefer to operate. So what we would
consider to have been a haven [for U.S. Navy ships] may no longer be a haven.88
Another set of observers states:
While the overall impression [produced by a review of Chinese military
literature] is that of [a] Chinese [self-assessment of] ASW weakness, there is one
notable exception. Significant prioritization appears to be given to the use of sea
mines for the antisubmarine mission, as if to produce a “poor man’s ASW
capability.” One discussion explains, “Because of a tremendous change in the
maritime strategic environment, since the early 1990s the PLA has made mobile
ASW sea mines a focal point of weapons development.” The analysis continues,
“[China] is energetically undertaking the research mission [of] using [mobile
ASW sea mines] against U.S. nuclear submarines.” The same discussion also
hints at a possible PLA Navy ASW role: “The major mission of self-guided sea
mines is to isolate American nuclear submarines outside the First Island
Chain.”89
87
2002 DOD CMP, p. 23. In 2000, DOD stated:
The PLAN’s mine stockpiles include vintage Russian moored-contact and bottom
influence mines, as well as an assortment of domestically built mines. China
currently produces the EM11 bottom-influence mine; the EM31 moored mine;
the EM32 moored influence mine; the EM52 rocket-propelled rising mine; and,
the EM-53 ship-laid bottom influence mine which is remotely controlled by a
shore station. China is believed to have available acoustically activated remote
control technology for its EM53. This technology probably could be used with
other Chinese ship-laid mines including the EM52. Application of this
technology could allow entire mines to be laid in advance of hostilities in a
dormant position and activated or deactivated when required. China reportedly
has completed development of a mobile mine and may be producing improved
variants of Russian bottom mines and moored-influence mines. Over the next
decade, China likely will attempt to acquire advanced propelled-warhead mines,
as well as submarine-launched mobile bottom mines. (Department of Defense,
Annual Report On The Military Power of the People’s Republic Of China, 2000.
Washington, 2000. See the subsection on subsurface warfare.)
88
Statement of Lyle J. Goldstein and William Murray as printed in 2/6/04 USCC hearing,
p. 133. See also p. 152.
89
Gabriel Collins, Andrew Erickson, Lyle Goldstein, and William Murray, “Chinese
Evaluations of the U.S. Navy Submarine Force,” Naval College War Review, Winter 2008:
78-79.
CRS-29
Information Warfare/Information Operations (IW/IO). China opensource writings demonstrate a strong interest in information warfare (IW), also called
information operations (IO), as an increasingly important element of warfare,
particularly against a sophisticated opposing force such as the U.S. military. Concern
about potential PLA IW/IO capabilities has been heightened by recent press reports
about attacks on U.S. computer systems that in some cases appear to have originated
in China.90 One observer has stated that “China even now is planting viruses in U.S.
computer systems that they will activate” in the event of a military conflict with the
United States.91 DOD states that
There has been much writing on information warfare among China’s
military thinkers, who indicate a strong conceptual understanding of its methods
and uses....
The PLA is investing in electronic countermeasures, defenses against
electronic attack (e.g., electronic and infrared decoys, angle reflectors, and false
target generators), and computer network operations (CNO). China’s CNO
concepts include computer network attack, computer network defense, and
computer network exploitation. The PLA sees CNO as critical to achieving
“electromagnetic dominance” early in a conflict. Although there is no evidence
of a formal Chinese CNO doctrine, PLA theorists have coined the term
“Integrated Network Electronic Warfare” to prescribe the use of electronic
warfare, CNO, and kinetic strikes to disrupt battlefield network information
systems.
The PLA has established information warfare units to develop viruses to
attack enemy computer systems and networks, and tactics and measures to
protect friendly computer systems and networks. In 2005, the PLA began to
incorporate offensive CNO into its exercises, primarily in first strikes against
enemy networks.92
In January 2007, the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency stated:
China has developed an apparent large scale CNO [computer network
operations] program, including military exercises to refine and implement
concepts. China’s robust presence in the global IT [information technology]
hardware and software supply chain enhances its technical expertise and IO
capability. China is the number one IT hardware provider for U.S. consumers,
accounting for 42 percent of U.S. IT hardware imports in 2005. As such, U.S.
dependence on China for certain items critical to the U.S. defense industry and
90
See 2005 DOD CMP, p. 36; 2003 CFR task force report, pp. 55-56; Peter Brookes, “The
Art Of (Cyber) War, New York Post, August 29, 2005; Bradley Graham, “Hackers Attack
Via Chinese websites,” Washington Post, August 25, 2005: 1; Frank Tiboni, “The New
Trojan War,” Federal Computer Week, August 22, 2005: 60.
91
Eric McVadon, as quoted in Dave Ahearn, “U.S. Can’t Use Trade Imbalance To Avert
China Invasion Of Taiwan,” Defense Today, August 2, 2005, pp. 1-2.
92
2007 DOD CMP, pp. 21-22.
CRS-30
the waning of U.S. global IT dominance are valid concerns that demand
vigilance.93
Nuclear Weapons.94 China, as a longstanding nuclear weapon state, could
put nuclear warheads on weapons such as TBMs, LACMs, ASCMs, torpedoes, and
naval mines. China could use nuclear-armed versions of these weapons (except the
LACMs) to attack U.S. Navy ships at sea. China might do so in the belief that it
could subsequently confuse the issue in the public arena of whose nuclear warhead
had detonated,95 or that the United States in any event would not escalate the conflict
by retaliating with a nuclear attack on a land target in China. During the Cold War,
analysts debated whether the use of a Soviet nuclear weapon against U.S. Navy ships
during a conflict would lead to a U.S. nuclear response.
One set of observers states: capabilities of either vessel.”68
Nuclear Weapons69. China, as a longstanding nuclear weapon state, could
put nuclear warheads on weapons such as TBMs, LACMs, ASCMs, torpedoes, and
naval mines. China could use nuclear-armed versions of these weapons (except the
LACMs) to attack U.S. Navy ships at sea. China might do so in the belief that it
could subsequently confuse the issue in the public arena of whose nuclear warhead
had detonated,70 or that the United States in any event would not escalate the conflict
by retaliating with a nuclear attack on a land target in China. During the Cold War,
analysts debated whether the use of a Soviet nuclear weapon against U.S. Navy ships
during a conflict would lead to a U.S. nuclear response.
One set of observers states:
67
See Richard D. Fisher Jr., “Naval Gazing, Emerging Expeditionary Capabilities in the
Western Pacific,” Jane’s Intelligence Review, August 2007: 55; and “PLAN looking forward
to 2008,” available online at
[http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2007/12/plan-looking-forward-to-2008.html]
68
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, p. 31 (Executive Overview) and p. 136.
69
For a general discussion of the potential role of nuclear weapons in notional crisis and
conflict situations involving China, see CRS Report RL33607, U.S. Conventional Forces
and Nuclear Deterrence: A China Case Study, by Christopher Bolkcom, Shirley A. Kan, and
Amy F. Woolf.
70
Following the April 1, 2001, collision in international airspace off China’s coast of a U.S.
Navy EP-3 electronic surveillance aircraft and a PLA F-8 fighter, which many observers
believed was caused by reckless flying by the pilot of the F-8, China attempted to convince
others that the collision was caused by poor flying by the pilot of the slower-flying and less
maneuverable U.S. EP-3. For more on this event, see CRS Report RL30946, China-U.S.
Aircraft Collision Incident of April 2001: Assessments and Policy Implications, by Shirley
A. Kan, coordinator.
CRS-23
In Chinese discussions of Russian ASW systems, there is a pointed
recognition that the Soviets leaned heavily toward the use of tactical nuclear
weapons (e.g., nuclear depth charges and torpedoes) in ASW operations. Tactical
nuclear weapons are also mentioned in the context of mine warfare. An article
in the July 2006 issue of [the Chinese military journal] Modern Navy, in
discussing possible PLA Navy use of
sea mines, suggests the potential combat
value of nuclear-armed versions. It will
be important to watch closely for any
sign of Chinese efforts in this direction.9671
China could also use a nuclear-armed ballistic missile to detonate a nuclear
warhead in the atmosphere to create a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (EMP)
intended to temporarily or permanently disable the electronic circuits of U.S. or other
civilian and military electronic systems. Some observers have expressed concern in
recent years over the potential vulnerability of U.S. military systems to EMP
effects.97
93
Current and Projected National Security Threats to the United States, Lieutenant General
Michael D. Maples, U.S. Army, Director, Defense Intelligence Agency, Statement for the
Record, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Committee [sic], 11 January 2007, p. 28.
94
For a general discussion of the potential role of nuclear weapons in notional crisis and
conflict situations involving China, see CRS Report RL33607, U.S. Conventional Forces
and Nuclear Deterrence: A China Case Study, by Christopher Bolkcom, Shirley A. Kan, and
Amy F. Woolf.
95
Following the April 1, 2001, collision in international airspace off China’s coast of a U.S.
Navy EP-3 electronic surveillance aircraft and a PLA F-8 fighter, which many observers
believed was caused by reckless flying by the pilot of the F-8, China attempted to convince
others that the collision was caused by poor flying by the pilot of the slower-flying and less
maneuverable U.S. EP-3. For more on this event, see CRS Report RL30946, China-U.S.
Aircraft Collision Incident of April 2001: Assessments and Policy Implications, by Shirley
A. Kan, coordinator.
9672
High-Power Microwave (HPM) Weapons. Some observers are concerned
that China might develop or already possess high-power microwave (HPM) weapons,
also called radio frequency weapons (RFWs) or E-bombs, which are non-nuclear
devices that can be used to generate damaging EMP effects over relatively short
distances to disable the electronic circuits of nearby enemy civilian and military
systems.73 In theory, an HPM weapon could be placed on a TBM or ASCM and fired
at a U.S. Navy ship. Although the effective EMP radius of such devices might be on
the order of only a few hundred yards,74 such devices could be used to attack
71
Gabriel Collins, Andrew Erickson, Lyle Goldstein, and William Murray, “Chinese
Evaluations of the U.S. Navy Submarine Force,” Naval College War Review, Winter 2008:
79.
9772
See CRS Report RL32544, High Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) and High Power
Microwave (HPM) Devices: Threat Assessments, by Clay Wilson; (Hereafter cited as CRS
Report RL32544.) and John S. Foster, Jr., et al., Report of the Commission to Assess the
CRS-31
High-Power Microwave (HPM) Weapons. Some observers are concerned
that China might develop or already possess high-power microwave (HPM) weapons,
also called radio frequency weapons (RFWs) or E-bombs, which are non-nuclear
devices that can be used to generate damaging EMP effects over relatively short
distances to disable the electronic circuits of nearby enemy civilian and military
systems.98 In theory, an HPM weapon could be placed on a TBM or ASCM and fired
at a U.S. Navy ship. Although the effective EMP radius of such devices might be on
the order of only a few hundred yards,99 such devices could be used to attack
individual U.S. Navy ships without the political or escalatory risks of a high-altitude
nuclear detonation.100
Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack, Volume 1: Executive
Report 2004. Washington, 2004, 53 pp. (Hereafter cited as 2004 EMP commission report.)
See also the transcripts and written statements of hearings on EMP held before the House
Armed Services Committee on July 22, 2004, and before the Military Research and
Development Subcommittee of the House Armed Services Committee on October 7, 1999,
and July 16, 1997. (In 1997, the full committee was called the House National Security
Committee.)
9873
For more on HPM weapons, see CRS Report RL32544.
9974
One source states that “a 2,000-pound microwave munition will have a minimum radius
[of effect] of approximately 200 meters,” or roughly 650 feet. (“High-power microwave
(HPM)/E-Bomb,” available on the Internet at [http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/
systems/munitions/hpm.htm].)
A second source says HPM weapons might have effective radii “on the order of hundreds
of meters, subject to weapon performance and target set electrical hardness.” (Section 4.1
of Carlo Kopp, “The Electromagnetic Bomb — a Weapon of Electrical Mass Destruction,”
available on the Internet at [http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/
1996/apjemp.htm].)
A third source states that “a small RF device might have a range measured in feet, while a
CRS-24
individual U.S. Navy ships without the political or escalatory risks of a high-altitude
nuclear detonation.75
China’s Naval Limitations and Weaknesses
In spite of the concerns raised by the modernization effort described above,
observers believe PLA military (including naval) forces continue to have limitations
or weaknesses in the following areas, among others:
!
sustained operations in waters and air space that are more distant
from China;
!
joint operations;
!
C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers,
intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) systems, including, for
example, airborne warning and control system (AWACS)
capabilities;
!
long-range surveillance and targeting systems for detecting and
tracking ships at sea — a capability needed to take full advantage of
longer-ranged anti-ship weapons;
!
anti-air warfare (AAW) capability for defending surface ships
against air attack;
!
antisubmarine warfare (ASW) capability for defending surface ships
against submarine attack;
relatively large RF device might produce upset or damage in electronics systems at a range
measured in hundreds of feet, and interference at a range of hundreds of miles.” (Statement
of William R. Graham, Ph.D., before the Military Research and Development Subcommittee
of the House Armed Services Committee, October 7, 1999.)
10075
One source states that:
An electromagnetic warhead detonated within lethal radius of a surface
combatant will render its air defence system inoperable, as well as damaging
other electronic equipment such as electronic countermeasures, electronic
support measures and communications. This leaves the vessel undefended until
these systems can be restored, which may or may not be possible on the high
seas. Therefore launching an electromagnetic glidebomb on to a surface
combatant, and then reducing it with laser or television guided weapons is an
alternate strategy for dealing with such targets. (Section 10.4 of Carlo Kopp,
“The Electromagnetic Bomb — a Weapon of Electrical Mass Destruction,” op.
cit.)
For additional discussion HPM weapons at sea, see Massimo Annati, “Non-Lethal
Weapons: Their Application in the Maritime World,” Naval Forces, No. 1, 2006,
particularly pages 50, 51, and 53.
CRS-32
Military Doctrine, Education, Training, Exercises, and Logistics.
Military capability is a product not simply of having weapons, but of having a
doctrine for how to use them, well-educated and well-trained personnel, realistic
exercises, and logistic support. In past years, the PLA was considered weak in some
or all of these areas, and PLA military capability consequently was considered not as
great as its inventory of weapons alone might suggest. The 2004 China defense
white paper stated an intention to improve in these areas,101 and observers believe the
PLA is acting on these intentions. DOD stated in 2005 that “China has stated its
intentions and allocated resources to pursue force-wide professionalization, improve
training, conduct more robust, realistic joint exercises, and accelerate acquisition of
modern weapons.”102 DOD stated in 2007 that “In June 2006, the PLA released new
guidance to increase realism in training and to expand the use of simulators and
opposing forces in training evolutions.”103
The PLA in recent years has developed a doctrine for joint operations involving
multiple military services,104 improved its military education and training and
conducted more realistic exercises,105 and reformed its logistics system.106
Improvements in these areas might be considered as important as the weaponmodernization activities discussed above. Some of these improvements may require
several years to fully implement.
China’s Naval Limitations and Weaknesses. In spite of the concerns
raised by the modernization effort described above, observers believe PLA military
(including naval) forces continue to have limitations or weaknesses in the following
areas, among others:
!
sustained operations in waters and air space that are more distant
from China;
!
joint operations;
!
C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers,
intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) systems, including, for
101
See the sections entitled “Reducing the PLA by 200,000,” “Implementing the Strategic
Project for Talented People,” “Intensifying Joint Training,” and “Deepening Logistical
Reforms,” in Chapter II on national defense policy.
102
2005 DOD CMP, p. 26.
103
2007 DOD CMP, p. 5.
104
See, for example, 2005 DOD CMP, pp. 5-6; the statement of David M. Finkelstein as
printed in 2/6/04 USCC hearing, p. 90-93; and 2003 CFR task force report, pp. 38-39.
105
See, for example, [Statement of] Dennis J. Blasko, Independent Consultant, September
15, 2005, Hearing on “Net Assessment of Cross-Strait Military Capabilities” Before the
U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission; the statement by Lyle J. Goldstein
and William Murray as printed in 2/6/04 USCC hearing, pp. 131-132, 143-145; and 2003
CFR task force report, pp. 39-41, 45-46, 49.
106
Regarding reformed logistics, see 2005 DOD CMP, p. 34, and the statement of Lyle J.
Goldstein and William Murray as printed in 2/6/04 USCC hearing, p. 145.
CRS-33
example, airborne warning and control system (AWACS)
capabilities;
!
long-range surveillance and targeting systems for detecting and
tracking ships at sea — a capability needed to take full advantage of
longer-ranged anti-ship weapons;
!
anti-air warfare (AAW) capability for defending surface ships
against air attack;
!
antisubmarine warfare (ASW) capability for defending surface ships
against submarine attack;
25
!
mine countermeasures (MCM) capability; and
!
logistics.
The paragraphs below elaborate on these items.
Weaknesses and Limitations inIn General. Regarding weaknesses and
limitations of China’s military in
general, a 2007 report by a task force sponsored by
the Council on Foreign Relations
stated that despite advances,
the PLA confronts many obstacles:
• The sophistication of new equipment generally exceeds current joint
command-and-control capabilities.
• Its reliance on a blend of obsolete and modern equipment makes effective
large-scale planning, training, and operations difficult.
• Its dependence on multiple foreign arms suppliers makes it hard to build
efficient supply chains and maintenance regimes.
• It has a shortage of technically knowledgeable, innovative, initiative-taking
personnel who can operate high-tech systems, a deficiency exacerbated by
China’s lack of a professional corps of noncommissioned officers.
• It has little combat experience — Chinese military forces have not been
involved in major combat since 1979, when they performed poorly against
Vietnamese forces.
• It lacks many of the instruments of force projection, including long-range
bombers, aircraft carriers, large airborne units, and the logistics capability to
support and sustain combat forces beyond its borders.
None of these obstacles can be overcome swiftly, and none can be overcome
merely by throwing more money at the problem.107
107
Council on Foreign Relations, U.S.-China Relations: An Affirmative Agenda, A
Responsible Course, Report of an Independent Task Force sponsored by the Council on
CRS-34
Regarding PLA Navy limitations and weaknesses in general, DIA states:
China continues to develop or import modern weapons.... The PLA must
overcome significant integration challenges to turn these new, advanced and
disparate weapon systems into improved capabilities. Beijing also faces
technical and operational difficulties in numerous areas.108
Another set of observers states:
The PLAN is limited by a lack of integration in its command, control, and
communication systems; targeting; air defense; and antisubmarine warfare
capabilities. PLAN ships are vulnerable to attack by aircraft, torpedoes, and
antiship missiles. The navies of the ASEAN nations could, if able to operate
together, exclude the PLAN from the South China Sea....
New capabilities are limited by the lack of some critical supporting systems. The
PLAN is deficient in antisubmarine warfare capabilities. PLAN ships are also
vulnerable to air attack by both aircraft and antiship missiles.109
A separate set of observers states that weaknesses in China’s shipbuilding
industry
are more problematic for naval projects [than for commercial shipbuilding
projects]. Although China is designing and building increasingly sophisticated
warships, Chinese naval shipbuilders still need to import key components or
modules, such as propulsion systems, navigation and sensor suites, and major
weapon systems, to outfit these vessels. Such a reliance on imported subsystems
creates systems-integration challenges, as well as security concerns stemming
from dependence on foreign suppliers. China appears to be improving its ability
to absorb imported equipment and technologies, but it will take time before these
and other problems are overcome.110
Foreign Relations, Washington, 2007, p. 47.
108
Current and Projected National Security Threats to the United States, Vice Admiral
Lowell E. Jacoby, U.S. Navy, Director, Defense Intelligence Agency, Statement for the
Record [before the] Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 16 February 2005, p. 16. See
also Current and Projected National Security Threats to the United States, Vice Admiral
Lowell E. Jacoby, U.S. Navy, Director, Defense Intelligence Agency, Statement For the
Record [before the] Senate Armed Services Committee, 17 March 2005, p. 16.
109
2003 CFR task force report, pp. 28 and 47.
110
2005 RAND report, pp. 110-111. On page 153, the report similarly states that
China’s SBI [shipbuilding industry] exhibits a number of limitations and
weaknesses that will constrain naval modernization. Although the design and
construction of vessels have improved, the SBI has experienced numerous
problems producing quality subsystems for both merchant and naval vessels.
Chinese shipbuilders have had to rely heavily on foreign imports for the power
plants, navigation and sensor suites, and key weapon systems for its newest naval
platforms. For example, Chinese marine-engine factories have had difficulties
producing gas turbine engines powerful enough for large destroyers and related
combatants. The last two classes of Chinese destroyers have relied on imported
CRS-35
These observers also state that
the capabilities of most of China’s current naval SAM and SSM systems and
much of its naval electronics are limited and not equivalent to U.S. capabilities
or those of other Asian militaries. The limited range and accuracy of Chinese
SSMs and SAMs create serious problems for air-defense and antisubmarine
warfare. Many of these systems also do not operate with over-the-horizon
targeting, further degrading their already-limited capabilities.
Furthermore, few — if any — advances were made in the development and
production of naval propulsion or navigation equipment in the 1980s or 1990s.
This lack continues to be a major weakness in China’s domestic naval production
efforts, and one that the PLAN’s heavy reliance on foreign subsystems for its
second-generation vessels testifies to.111
Regarding the submarine force, one observer states that
by no means should the PLAN submarine force be considered ten feet tall.
China’s submarine force has some significant weaknesses: a reliance on diesel
submarines that have to approach the surface to snorkel; especially in the wake
of the Ming 361 accident,112 it is evident that crew training and professionalism
remain a fundamental problem; finally, there is little evidence of a robust, remote
cueing capability, and probable weakness in the sphere of command and
control.113
Sustained Operations in Distant Waters. Regarding sustained operations
in more distant waters, DOD states: “China’s ability to sustain military power at a
distance, at present, remains limited....”114 DOD stated in 2005 that:76
DOD states that “the PLA has only a limited capacity to communicate with
submarines at sea and the PLA Navy has no experience in managing an SSBN fleet
that performs strategic patrols.”77
A separate set of observers states that weaknesses in China’s shipbuilding
industry
are more problematic for naval projects [than for commercial shipbuilding
projects]. Although China is designing and building increasingly sophisticated
warships, Chinese naval shipbuilders still need to import key components or
76
Council on Foreign Relations, U.S.-China Relations: An Affirmative Agenda, A
Responsible Course, Report of an Independent Task Force sponsored by the Council on
Foreign Relations, Washington, 2007, p. 47.
77
2008 DOD CMP, p. 25.
CRS-26
modules, such as propulsion systems, navigation and sensor suites, and major
weapon systems, to outfit these vessels. Such a reliance on imported subsystems
creates systems-integration challenges, as well as security concerns stemming
from dependence on foreign suppliers. China appears to be improving its ability
to absorb imported equipment and technologies, but it will take time before these
and other problems are overcome.78
These observers also state that
the capabilities of most of China’s current naval SAM and SSM systems and
much of its naval electronics are limited and not equivalent to U.S. capabilities
or those of other Asian militaries. The limited range and accuracy of Chinese
SSMs and SAMs create serious problems for air-defense and antisubmarine
warfare. Many of these systems also do not operate with over-the-horizon
targeting, further degrading their already-limited capabilities.
Furthermore, few — if any — advances were made in the development and
production of naval propulsion or navigation equipment in the 1980s or 1990s.
This lack continues to be a major weakness in China’s domestic naval production
efforts, and one that the PLAN’s heavy reliance on foreign subsystems for its
second-generation vessels testifies to.79
78
Evan S. Medeiros et al., A New Direction for China’s Defense Industry. Santa Monica,
CA, RAND Corporation, 2005. Pp. 110-111. (MG-334, RAND Project Air Force.)
(Hereafter cited as 2005 RAND report.) On page 153, the report similarly states that
China’s SBI [shipbuilding industry] exhibits a number of limitations and
weaknesses that will constrain naval modernization. Although the design and
construction of vessels have improved, the SBI has experienced numerous
problems producing quality subsystems for both merchant and naval vessels.
Chinese shipbuilders have had to rely heavily on foreign imports for the power
plants, navigation and sensor suites, and key weapon systems for its newest naval
platforms. For example, Chinese marine-engine factories have had difficulties
producing gas turbine engines powerful enough for large destroyers and related
combatants. The last two classes of Chinese destroyers have relied on imported
gas turbine engines, for example. This high degree of reliance on foreign goods
creates major challenges for systems integration and, given the inconsistent
availability of certain weapon systems, complicates serial production of some
platforms.
111
79
2005 RAND report, p. 139-140. On pages 153-154, the report similarly states that
Chinese combatants lack long-range air-defense systems, modern anti —
submarine warfare (ASW) weapons, and advanced electronic warfare capabilities
needed to outfit its new ships. China’s other defense sectors have been slow to
produce modern versions of these crucial technologies beyond copies or
modifications of Soviet or Western systems. For example, Chinese firms have
experienced several delays in the indigenous production of a medium and
long-range SAM system for naval area defense, which has complicated the
completion of some naval projects.... [T]his situation is changing as China’s
defense-industrial complex modernizes. But, some past weaknesses persist and,
over the medium term, they will continue to constrain China’s ability to project
and sustain naval power for extended periods in the coming decade.
112
This is a reference to an April 2003 fatal accident aboard a Ming-class boat with hull
number 361. See Appendix A for additional details concerning this accident.
113
Statement of Lyle J. Goldstein and William Murray as printed in 2/6/04 USCC hearing,
p. 156.
114
2007 DOD CMP, p. I (Executive Summary).
CRS-36
China does not appear to have broadened its concept of operations for
anti-access and sea denial to encompass sea control in waters beyond Taiwan and
its immediate periphery. If China were to shift to a broader “sea control”
strategy, the primary indicators would include: development of an aircraft carrier,
development of robust anti-submarine warfare capabilities, development of a true
area anti-air warfare capability, acquisition of large numbers of nuclear attack
submarines, development of effective maritime C4ISR, and increased open water
training....
With its present force structure, according to the Intelligence Community,
Chinese surface combatants would have difficulty projecting power into the
Strait of Malacca, especially if it were conducting simultaneous blockade or
invasion operations elsewhere. Similarly, although the PLA Navy occasionally
patrols as far as the Spratly Islands, its limited organic air defense capability
leaves surface ships vulnerable to attack from hostile air and naval forces. The
PLA Navy Air Force and PLA Air Force currently lack the operational range to
support PLA Navy operations. In recent years, however, the PLA Navy’s South
Sea Fleet, which has operational responsibility over the South China Sea, has
been assigned more capable surface combatants and submarines, including two
destroyers (one LUDA IV class and one LUHAI class) that provide it with its
first short-range area air-defense capability, the HHQ-7C surface-to-air missile
systems.115
Joint Operations. Regarding joint operations, DOD states:
Since 2004, the PLA has conducted a number of exercises designed to develop
the PLA’s joint operational concepts and demonstrate new capabilities, command
automation systems, and weapons. The PLA hopes eventually to fuse
service-level capabilities with an integrated network for command, control,
communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance
(C4ISR), a new command structure, and a joint logistics system. However, it
continues to face deficiencies in inter-service cooperation and actual experience
in joint operations.116
Another observer states:
There is no question that China has achieved a remarkable leap in
modernization of the forces needed for these missions and that it is urgently
continuing on that path. There is question about how China is now proceeding
to exercise these new assets so as to make them truly operational in a combat
environment. There is considerable question about China’s capability to
coordinate all these forces in two major simultaneous operations: (1) to bring
Taiwan to its knees and (2) cause the U.S. to be tardy, indecisive, or ineffective
in responding.117
115
2005 DOD CMP, executive summary and pp. 33-34.
116
2007 DOD CMP, p. 15.
117
[Statement of] Rear Admiral (U.S. Navy, Retired) Eric A. McVadon, Director of AsiaPacific Studies, Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, Consultant on East Asia Security
Affairs, Before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, [regarding]
Recent Trends in China’s Military Modernization, 15 September 2005, p. 6. (Hereafter
cited as McVadon 9/15/05 testimony.) Italics as in the original.
CRS-37
CRS-27
DOD states that while “shipyard modernization and expansion has increased
China’s overall shipbuilding capacity and capabilities, generating corresponding
benefits for all types of naval projects, including submarines; surface combatants;
naval aviation, including initiatives for aircraft carriers; and amphibious/sealift-airlift
assets,” China’s naval industry “continues to rely on foreign suppliers for some
propulsion units and, to a lesser degree, fire control systems, cruise missiles,
ship-to-air missiles, torpedo systems, sensors, and other advanced electronics.”80
Sustained Operations in Distant Waters. Regarding sustained operations
in more distant waters, DOD states, “China’s ability to sustain military power at a
distance remains limited....”81 DOD also states that “China will not be able to project
and sustain small military units far beyond China before 2015, and will not be able
to project and sustain large forces in combat operations far from China until well into
the following decade.”82 DOD further states that:
Over the last decade, the PLA has improved its capability to support
operations within its borders and along its periphery....
The absence of a true expeditionary logistics capability, however, will limit
the PLA’s ability to project and sustain military operations at distances from the
mainland. First among these is the capability to transport and sustain more than
a division of ground troops and equipment by sea or air. The PLA Navy’s total
amphibious lift capacity has been estimated to be one infantry division of
approximately 10,000 troops and equipment at one time. Likewise if all the large
transport aircraft in the PLAAF were operational and rigged for parachute drop,
only approximately 5,000 parachutists could be delivered in a single lift, much
less if equipment is carried at the same time. PLA in-flight refueling capability
is limited and can only support small numbers of fighter aircraft. The PLA Navy
has gained some proficiency with underway replenishment and sustainment of
long distance deployments, but this capability remains limited by the small
numbers of support ships.
The PLA’s force projection capabilities will remain limited over the next
decade as the PLA replaces outdated aircraft and maritime vessels and adjusts
operational doctrine to encompass new capabilities. These changes will require
tailored logistics equipment and training which will take time and money to
develop proficiency. Although foreign produced equipment and maintenance
parts, as well as the civil sector, may help to fill near-term gaps, continued
reliance on non-organic assets will hinder PLA capabilities to sustain large-scale
operations over time.83
Joint Operations. Regarding joint operations, DOD states:
The PLA hopes eventually to fuse service-level capabilities with an integrated
network for C4ISR, a new command structure, and a joint logistics system.
80
2008 DOD CMP, p. 37.
81
2008 DOD CMP, p. I (Executive Summary).
82
2008 DOD CMP, p. 22.
83
2008 DOD CMP, p. 36.
CRS-28
However, it continues to face deficiencies in inter-service cooperation and actual
experience in joint exercises and combat operations.84
Anti-Air Warfare (AAW). Regarding AAW, one observer states that China’s
decision to “shed its strictly coastal defense force structure in favor of acquiring
larger and more modern fighting vessels capable of blue-water operations” has
exposed a significant vulnerability — the PLAN’s inability to provide a
sophisticated, layered air defense for these new forces. Fleet air defense is the
Achilles’ heel of the 21st-century Chinese Navy....
As the PLAN’s ships increased in size, capability and endurance, and with
operational deployments taking them well beyond the navy’s traditional
mainland-based air defenses, a challenge not faced previously became apparent:
having to defend these units from air attack in the event of hostilities. Response
to this concern has been slow and inadequate at best, and serious consideration
to providing the surface navy with the kind of air defense systems one normally
associates with modern naval fleets has only begun. Not until the late 1990s was
an effort made to outfit PLAN destroyers and frigates with an antiair “point
defense” system, giving them some measure of self-defense.... The PLAN
surface fleet, however, still lacks “modern air surveillance systems and data links
required for area air defense missions. The combination of short-range weapons
and lack of modern surveillance systems limits the PLAN to self-defense and
point-defense [AAW] only. As a result, except in unusual circumstances, no
PLAN ship is capable of conducting air defense of another ship.”11885
In a similar vein, today’s PLAN naval aviation forces alone cannot provide
fighter coverage for the entire Chinese coast or the fleet, so interceptor duties
have ben distributed by region between naval aviation units and the PLA Air
Force. This increases the number of assets available for the task, but questions
remain about joint patrolling, separate chains of command, and air force overwater proficiency. When faced with training scenarios that incorporated factors
likely found in a modern air combat environment, such as electronic
countermeasures or even inclement weather, neither service was up to the task.
In light of these facts, the potential effectiveness of the cooperation between the
two services is doubtful.
Significant gaps exist in the present PLAN fleet air defense posture. Given
the forces available today, China cannot adequately defend its fleet from air
attack in the modern air threat environment.11986
Antisubmarine Warfare (ASW). Regarding ASW, one observer states:
The most serious deficiency of the PLAN is certainly in the area of
Anti-Submarine Warfare. Good submarines, like the “Kilo” class and (possibly)
the forthcoming Type-093, will play an important ASW role, but the lack of
maritime patrol aircraft and of surface ships equipped with advanced acoustic
11884
2008 DOD CMP, p. 22.
85
The passage at this point is quoting from the 2003 edition of DOD’s annual report on
China’s military power (2003 DOD CMP, p. 25).
11986
Dominic DeScisciolo, “Red Aegis,” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, July 2004, pp. 5658.
CRS-3829
maritime patrol aircraft and of surface ships equipped with advanced acoustic
sensors make the Chinese vessels vulnerable for [sic] any of the foreign
high-capability submarines operating in the area.12087
Another set of observers, based on a review of Chinese military literature, states
that:
When considering Chinese views of the American submarine force, it is
certainly relevant to consider how China appraises its own antisubmarine warfare
forces. Generally, China considers its ASW forces to be weak. One Chinese
naval analyst observes: “[Chinese] people are focused on China’s submarine
force (both conventional and nuclear) development, but often neglect the threat
we face from [U.S. Navy] submarines.” It is, moreover, suggested that “there is
still a relatively large gap between [China’s] ASW technology level and that of
the world’s advanced level.” In appraising the ASW capabilities of its own
surface forces, another naval analyst notes, “Across the world, most naval ships
are now equipped with towed array sonars, which has increased their ASW
capabilities, but most of our ships only have hull mounted sonars.” Finally, there
is a concern that these antisubmarine assets are themselves highly vulnerable:
“Submarines can carry out ferocious missile attacks from tens or even 100 —
200km ranges, causing the submarine hunting vessels to become the hunted
targets.”
Chinese aerial ASW is also highlighted as a particular weakness.12188
Mine Countermeasures (MCM). Regarding MCM, one observer writes that
for the PLA Navy a
serious operational deficiency involves the mine countermeasures vessels
(MCMV). Though China has an intense shipping [activity] along its coasts, the
PLAN has virtually no mine-sweeping or mine-hunting capabilities. This was
due, perhaps, to the consideration that the U.S. Navy is usually more concerned
to keep the sea lanes open, instead of laying mines, but nevertheless the lack of
MCM is simply stunning. Any hostile organisation (including, but not limited
to, state-sponsored terrorists and insurgents) could play havoc with the Chinese
shipping simply by laying a few mines here and there.122
Logistics. Regarding logistics, DOD stated in 2005:
Since 2000, China has improved the structure, material coordination, and
efficiency of its joint logistics system. However, the command system is still not
compatible with the support system, and organization and planning is
incompatible with supply management. The first experimental joint logistics unit
was created only in July 2004.123
12089
Logistics. Regarding logistic support of China’s new destroyers, one observer
states:
The ships’ new sensors, missiles and combat systems are mainly of Russian and
Western origin. However, China now is faced with the challenge of operating
and maintaining these advanced systems to create a credible threat to foreign
navies in Far Eastern waters....
87
Massimo Annati, “China’s PLA Navy, The Revolution,” Naval Forces, No. 6, 2004, p.
75.
12188
Gabriel Collins, Andrew Erickson, Lyle Goldstein, and William Murray, “Chinese
Evaluations of the U.S. Navy Submarine Force,” Naval College War Review, Winter 2008:
78-79.
122
Ibid., p. 73.
123
2005 DOD CMP, pp. 34-35.
CRS-39
Regarding logistic support of China’s new destroyers, one observer states:
The ships’ new sensors, missiles and combat systems are mainly of Russian and
Western origin. However, China now is faced with the challenge of operating
and maintaining these advanced systems to create a credible threat to foreign
navies in Far Eastern waters....
89
Ibid., p. 73.
CRS-30
Every piece of equipment [on China’s Sovremenny-class destroyers] from hull,
mechanical and electrical (HM&E) technologies to guns, sonar, communications,
electronic countermeasures (ECM) and missiles are totally new to the PLAN....
[For these ships,] China is dependent on Russian advisers for training, operations
and maintenance. These ships largely remain in the Russian support cocoon in
Dinghai rather than at a fleet base....
Isolation from other ships and crews hurts fleet integration and coordinated
operations.... It is no coincidence that the Sovremnyi and Kilo submarine home
bases are in an enclave of Russian support in an isolated area near the Eastern
Fleet headquarters at Ningbo.
It is unlikely that Russian advisers would be onboard during actual combat
operations against Taiwan and U.S. Navy air, surface and subsurface threats.
PLAN officers and crew are not expected to be able to handle operations when
under fire, sustaining hits and suffering system degradation or loss. This could
include problems in night or rough weather environment as well. Because all of
the combat systems, except for three noted, are modern Russian equipments,
China has minimal capability even to repair peacetime losses in port....
A comparison [of the AAW system on the Luyang II class destroyers] to
[the] U.S. Navy Aegis [combat system] is inevitable, but Aegis was on [the U.S.
Navy test ship] Norton Sound for nine years of development testing prior to the
first installation on the USS Ticonderoga (CG-47) 20 years ago. Developing the
software for signal processing and tracking a hundred air, surface and submarine
targets will take even longer for China. Integration to various indigenous ship
guns and missiles and other sensors, as well as other ships’ data management and
weapons, will take longer. These Chinese “Aegis” ships may be limited to 1940s
era radar tasks of detecting and tracking air and surface targets for their own ship
weapons. Further in the future will be an 8,000-ton DDG that is predicted to be
a true area-control warship with additional Aegis capabilities. It is now in early
construction stages in the new Dalian shipyard.
What kind of record is provided by prior Chinese built warships with
imported Russian and Western technology? These include sensors, fire control,
weapons and communications as well as HM&E. The Chinese new-construction
DDGs are a mix of local designed and manufactured systems, foreign imports
with production rights, illegally copied import equipment and illegal examples
with no local production capability at all. The latter two represent serious
training and maintenance problems. Unfortunately for the PLAN, some of them
are in the highest mission-critical areas. For example, the DDGs being built have
a rapid-fire Gatling gun close-in weapon system that looks like the Dutch
Goalkeeper system. Signaal and the Dutch government deny exporting the
equipment or production rights to China. This key weapon responsible for
CRS-40
downing incoming cruise missiles is probably lacking documentation and
training because it must be illegally obtained.12490
90
James C. Bussert, “China Builds Destroyers Around Imported Technology,” Signal,
August 2004, p. 67.
CRS-31
Goals or Significance of China’s Naval Modernization.
PLA Navy as a Modernization Priority. The PLA Navy is one of three
stated priorities within China’s overall military modernization effort. China’s 2004
defense white paper said three times that the effort will emphasize the navy, air force,
and the ballistic missile force.12591 China’s 2006 defense white paper stated: “Through
restructuring, the proportion of the Navy, Air Force and Second Artillery Force in the
PLA has been raised by 3.8 percent while that of the Army has been lowered by 1.5
percent.”12692 The 2006 white paper further states:
The Navy aims at gradual extension of the strategic depth for offshore defensive
operations and enhancing its capabilities in integrated maritime operations and
nuclear counterattacks....
The Navy and Air Force have cut some ship groups and aviation divisions,
regiments and stations, and set up some high-tech surface ship, aviation and
ground-to-air missile units....
The Navy is working to build itself into a modern maritime force of
operation consisting of combined arms with both nuclear and conventional
means of operations. Taking informationization as the goal and strategic focus
in its modernization drive, the Navy gives high priority to the development of
maritime information systems, and new-generation weaponry and equipment.
Efforts are being made to improve maritime battlefield capabilities, with
emphasis on the construction of relevant facilities for new equipment and the
development of combat support capabilities. The Navy is endeavoring to build
mobile maritime troops capable of conducting operations under conditions of
124
James C. Bussert, “China Builds Destroyers Around Imported Technology,” Signal,
August 2004, p. 67.
125
informationization, and strengthen its overall capabilities of operations in coastal
waters, joint operations and integrated maritime support. Efforts are being made
to improve and reform training programs and methods to intensify training in
joint integrated maritime operations. The Navy is enhancing research into the
91
The white paper states:
The PLA will promote coordinated development of firepower, mobility and
information capability, enhance the development of its operational strength with
priority given to the Navy, Air Force and Second Artillery Force, and strengthen
its comprehensive deterrence and warfighting capabilities....
The Army is streamlined by reducing the ordinary troops that are technologically
backward while the Navy, Air Force and Second Artillery Force are
strengthened....
While continuing to attach importance to the building of the Army, the PLA
gives priority to the building of the Navy, Air Force and Second Artillery Force
to seek balanced development of the combat force structure, in order to
strengthen the capabilities for winning both command of the sea and command
of the air, and conducting strategic counter-strikes. (2004 China White Paper,
op cit, Chapter II national defense policy.)
12692
2006 China White Paper, paragraph entitled “Downsizing the PLA.”
CRS-41
informationization, and strengthen its overall capabilities of operations in coastal
waters, joint operations and integrated maritime support. Efforts are being made
to improve and reform training programs and methods to intensify training in
joint integrated maritime operations. The Navy is enhancing research into the32
theory of naval operations and exploring the strategy and tactics of maritime
people’s war under modern conditions.12793
The heads of the PLA Navy, Air Force, and missile force were added to the
Central Military Commission in September 2004, and Navy and Air Force officers
were appointed Deputy Chiefs of the General Staff.12894 Regarding this development,
a 2007 report from the Office of Naval Intelligence states:
In September 2004, the commander of the PLAN, Admiral Zhang Dingfa,
became the first PLAN commander ever to serve concurrently as a member of the
CCP Central Committee’s Military Commission (CMC). His promotion in grade
and appointment to the CMC provided a unique challenge for the PLAN within
the PLA hierarchy.
[A]ll organizations within the PLA are assigned one of 15 grades. In
addition, the commander and political officer are assigned the same grade.
However, when Zhang Dingfa was promoted one grade as a CMC member,
neither the grade for the PLAN as an organization nor the grade of the PLAN
political commissar was raised to the same level. Therefore, although Zhang and
his successors will hold the same grade as the Chief of the General Staff and the
directors of the General Political Department (GPD), General Logistics
Department (GLD), and General Equipment Department (GED), the PLAN as
an organization is not equal to the four General Departments and is still at the
same grade as the seven Military Regions.12995
Another observer states:
If there had been any doubts about China’s plans to develop into a major
naval power, they were dispelled by President Hu Jintao on 27 December 2006.
In his speech to representatives of the navy’s 10th national Communist Party
congress in Beijing he said “in the process of protecting the nation’s authority
and security and maintaining our maritime rights, the navy’s role is very
important.” He called on military commanders to build a “powerful people’s
navy that can adapt to its historical mission during a new century and a new
period,” while adding that the Navy should be ready to protect the country’s
interests “at any time.” Two years after the promotion of the Commander-inChief, Admiral Zhang Dingfa, to a full seat on the Central Military Commission,
the navy’s evolution from being a coastal force to one that is at the centre of
Chinese strategy is now assured.130
12796
Near-Term Focus: Taiwan Situation. DOD and other observers believe
that the near-term focus of China’s military modernization is to develop military
93
2006 China White Paper, paragraphs entitled “Implementing the military strategy of
active defense,” and “Improving the structure of services and arms,” and a paragraph in the
section entitled “Development of the Services and Arms.”
128
94
See, for example, 2005 DOD CMP, p. 1.
12995
U.S. Department of the Navy, Office of Naval Intelligence, China’s Navy 2007,
Washington, 2007. p. 11.
13096
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, pp. 30-31 (Executive Overview).
CRS-42
Near-Term Focus: Taiwan Situation. DOD and other observers believe
that the near-term focus of China’s military modernization is to develop military33
options for addressing the situation with Taiwan. DOD lists China’s potential
military options regarding Taiwan as follows:
131
!
limited force options that “could include computer network attacks
against Taiwan’s or “No War” options, in which “China might use a
variety of lethal, punitive, or disruptive military actions in a limited
campaign against Taiwan, likely in conjunction with overt and
clandestine economic and political activities. Such a campaign
could include CNA [computer network attack] against Taiwan’s
political, military, and economic infrastructure to
undermine target the Taiwan population
people’s confidence in itstheir leadership.
Similarly, PLA special
operations forces infiltrated into Taiwan could conduct
acts of economic,
political, and military sabotage. Beijing might also
employ SRBM, special operations forces, and air strikes against air
fields, radars, and communications facilities on Taiwan....or military sabotage or attacks against leadership targets”;
!
an air and missile campaign, in which “Surprise SRBM attacks
and precision air strikes against Taiwan’s air defense system,
Limited SRBM attacks and
precision strikes against air defense systems, including air bases,
radar sites, missiles, space assets, and
communications facilities
could support a campaign to degrade
Taiwan Taiwan’s defenses, neutralize its
Taiwan’s military and political leadership, and
rapidly break its will to fight while attempting to preclude an
effective international response;”
!
a blockade, in which “Beijing could threaten or deploy a naval
blockade as a “non-war” pressure tactic in the pre-hostility phase or
as a transition to active conflict. Beijing could declare that ships en
possibly break the
Taiwan people’s will to fight”;
!
a maritime quarantine or blockade, in which “Beijing could
declare that ships en route to Taiwan ports must stop in mainland
ports for inspections
safety inspections prior to transiting on to Taiwan. It could
also attempt the equivalent
of a blockade by declaring exercise or
missile closure areas in
approaches and roadsteads to ports to divert merchant traffic, as
occurred during the approaches to ports with the effect of closing
port access and diverting merchant traffic — as occurred during the
1995-96 missile firings and live-fire exercises.
Chinese doctrine also includes activities such as air blockades,
missile attacks, and mining or otherwise obstructing harbors and
approaches. More traditional blockades would have greater impact
on Taiwan, but tax PLA Navy capabilities. Any attempt to limit
maritime traffic to and from Taiwan would likely trigger
countervailing international pressure, and risk military escalation.
Such restrictions would have immediate economic effects, but would
take time to realize decisive political results, diminishing the
ultimate effectiveness and inviting international reaction;”131 and
!
an amphibious invasion, about which DOD states that “Publicly
available Chinese writings offer different strategies... the most
Analysts disagree regarding China’s potential for mounting an effective blockade,
particularly with its submarine force. For an analysis that casts a skeptical eye on the
potential, see Michael A. Glosny, “Strangulation from the Sea? A PRC Submarine Blockade
of Taiwan,” International Security, spring 2004, pp. 125-160. For an analysis that expresses
more concern about this potential, see the statement of Lyle J. Goldstein and William
Murray as printed in 2/6/04 USCC hearing, pp. 132-133, 147-151. See also Michael C.
Grubb, “Merchant Shipping In A Chinese Blockade Of Taiwan,” Naval War College
Review, Winter 2007: 81-102.
CRS-43
prominent being the Joint Island Landing Campaign. The Joint
Island Landing Campaign envisions a complex operation relying on
supporting sub-campaigns for logistics, electronic warfare, and air
and naval support, to break through or circumvent shore defenses,
establish and build a beachhead, and then launch an attack to split,
seize, and occupy the entire island or key targets.132
Anti-Access Force for Short-Duration Conflict. More specifically,”; and
!
an amphibious invasion, about which DOD states that “China’s
Joint Island Landing Campaign envisions a complex operation
relying on interlocking, supporting, subordinate campaigns for
logistics, electronic warfare, and air and naval support — all
coordinated in space and time — to break through or circumvent
shore defenses, establish and build a beachhead, transport personnel
and materiel to designated landing sites, and then launch an attack
to split, seize, and occupy key targets and/or the entire island.”97
Regarding the option of a maritime quarantine or blockade, DOD states further
that:
Although a traditional maritime quarantine or blockade would have greater
impact on Taiwan, it would also tax PLA Navy capabilities. PLA doctrinal
writings describe potential lower cost solutions: air blockades, missile attacks,
and mining or otherwise obstructing harbors and approaches to achieve the
desired outcome at lower cost. Chinese elites could underestimate the degree to
97
2008 DOD CMP, pp. 42-43.
CRS-34
which any attempt to limit maritime traffic to and from Taiwan would trigger
countervailing international pressure and risk military escalation.98
Regarding the option of an amphibious invasion, DOD states further that:
The PLA currently is capable of accomplishing various amphibious
operations short of a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. With few overt military
preparations beyond seasonally routine amphibious training, China could launch
an invasion of a small Taiwan-held island such as Pratas or Itu Aba. Such a
limited invasion of a lightly defended island could demonstrate military
capability and political resolve, would achieve tangible territorial gain, and could
be portrayed as showing some measure of restraint. However, such an operation
includes significant — if not prohibitive — political risk as it could galvanize the
Taiwan populace and generate international opposition.
A PLA invasion of a medium-sized defended offshore island such as Mazu
or Jinmen, while within China’s capabilities, would involve logistic and military
preparation well beyond routine training.
Large-scale amphibious invasion is one of the most complicated and
logistics-intensive, and therefore difficult, military maneuvers. Success depends
upon air and sea supremacy in the vicinity of the operation, rapid buildup of
supplies and sustainment on shore, and an uninterrupted flow of support
thereafter. An invasion of Taiwan would strain the capabilities of China’s
untested armed forces and would almost certainly invite international
intervention. These stresses, combined with the combat attrition of China’s
forces, the complex tasks of urban warfare and counterinsurgency — assuming
a successful landing and breakout — make an amphibious invasion of Taiwan a
significant political and military risk for China’s leaders. Modest targeted
investments by Taiwan to harden infrastructure and strengthen defensive
capabilities could have measurable effects on decreasing Beijing’s ability to
achieve its objectives.99
Anti-Access Force for Short-Duration Conflict. More specifically, some
observers believe that China’s military modernization is aimed at fielding a force that
can succeed in a short-duration conflict with Taiwan that finishes before the United
States is able to intervene, so that China can present the United States and the rest of
the world with a fait accompli.133
Consistent with the goal of a short-duration conflict and a fait accompli,
observers believe, China wants its modernized military to be capable of acting as a
so-called anti-access force — a force that can deter U.S. intervention, or failing that,
delay the arrival or reduce the effectiveness of U.S. intervention forces, particularly
U.S. naval and air forces. DOD states that “If a quick resolution [to a situation
involving Taiwan] is not possible, Beijing would seek to deter U.S. intervention or,
failing that, delay such intervention, defeat it in an asymmetric, limited, quick war;
or, fight it to a standstill and pursue a protracted conflict.”134 DOD also states that:
In the near term, China is prioritizing measures to deter or counter
third-party intervention in any future cross-Strait crises. China’s approach to
dealing with this challenge centers on what DoD’s 2006 Quadrennial Defense
Review report refers to as disruptive capabilities: forces and operational concepts
aimed at preventing an adversary from deploying military forces to forward
operating locations, and/or rapidly destabilizing critical military balances. In this
132
2007 DOD CMP, pp. 32-33. DOD further notes that
Amphibious operations are logistics-intensive, and their success depends upon
air and sea superiority in the vicinity of the operation, the rapid buildup of
supplies and sustainment on shore, and an uninterrupted flow of support
thereafter. An amphibious campaign of the scale outlined in the Joint Island
Landing Campaign would tax the capabilities of China’s armed forces and almost
certainly invite international intervention. Add to these strains the combat
attrition of China’s forces, and the complex tasks of urban warfare and
counterinsurgency — assuming a successful landing and breakout — and an
amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be a significant political and military risk
for China’s leaders.” (Pages 32-33)
See also 2003 CFR task force report, pp. 2, 3, and 53.
133
See, for example, Eric A. McVadon, “Alarm Bells Ring as China Builds up its Armoury
on a Massive Sale,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, March 16, 2005, p. 23; Edward Cody, “China
Builds A Smaller, Stronger Military,” Washington Post, April 12, 2005, p. 1; Bryan Bender,
“China Bolsters Its Forces, US Says,” Boston Globe, April 10, 2005, p. 1; Jim Yardley and
Thom Shanker, “Chinese Navy Buildup Gives Pentagon New Worries,” New York Times,
April 8, 2005.
134
2007 DOD CMP, p. 32.
CRS-44
context, the PLA appears engaged in a sustained effort to develop the capability
to interdict, at long ranges, aircraft carrier and expeditionary strike groups that
might deploy to the western Pacific. Increasingly, China’s area denial/anti-access
forces overlap, providing multiple layers of offensive systems, utilizing the sea,
air, and space....
The PLA envisions precision strike capabilities sufficient to hold at risk western
Pacific airbases, ports, surface combatants, land and space-based C4ISR, air
defense systems, and command facilities.
To prevent deployment of naval forces into western Pacific waters, PLA planners
are focused on targeting surface ships at long ranges. Analyses of current and
projected force structure improvements suggest that in the near term, China is
seeking the capacity to hold surface ships at risk through a layered defense that
reaches out to the “second island chain” (i.e., the islands extending south and
east from Japan, to and beyond Guam in the western Pacific Ocean). One area
of apparent investment emphasis involves a combination of medium-range
ballistic missiles, C4ISR for geo-location of targets, and onboard guidance
systems for terminal homing to strike surface ships on the high seas or their
onshore support infrastructure. This capability would have particular
significance, owing to the preemptive and coercive options it would provide
China in a regional crisis.
Chinese military analysts have also concluded that logistics and
mobilization are potential vulnerabilities in modern warfare, given the heavy
requirements for precisely coordinated transportation, communications, and
logistics networks. To threaten in-theater bases and logistics points, China could
employ its theater ballistic missiles, land-attack cruise missiles, special
operations forces, and computer network attacks. Strike aircraft, enabled by
aerial refueling, could engage distant targets using air-launched cruise missiles
equipped with a variety of terminal-homing warheads.
Advanced mines, submarines, maritime strike aircraft, and modern surface
combatants equipped with advanced ASCMs would provide a supporting layer
of defense for its long-range anti-access systems. Acquisition of the KILO,
SONG, SHANG, and YUAN-class submarines illustrates the importance the
PLA places on undersea warfare. The purchase of SOVREMENNYY II-class
DDGs and indigenous production of the LUYANG I/LUYANG II DDGs
equipped with long-range ASCM and SAM systems demonstrate a continuing
emphasis on improving anti-surface warfare, combined with mobile, wide-area
air control.135
135
2007 DOD CMP, pp. 15-18. Another observer states that
This mission, in essence, is to be able quickly to overwhelm Taiwan’s military,
cow the Taiwan government, and deter, delay, or complicate effective and timely
U.S. intervention....
The concept is ... to be able very rapidly, in a matter of days, to cause Taiwan to
capitulate, with such capitulation abetted by the failure of the U.S. to respond
promptly and effectively. As has been said often, Beijing’s concept is to be able
to present to Washington and the world a fait accompli concerning Taiwan....
CRS-45
100
98
2008 DOD CMP, p. 43. Analysts disagree regarding China’s potential for mounting an
effective blockade, particularly with its submarine force. For an analysis that casts a
skeptical eye on the potential, see Michael A. Glosny, “Strangulation from the Sea? A PRC
Submarine Blockade of Taiwan,” International Security, spring 2004, pp. 125-160. For an
analysis that expresses more concern about this potential, see the statement of Lyle J.
Goldstein and William Murray as printed in 2/6/04 USCC hearing, pp. 132-133, 147-151.
See also Michael C. Grubb, “Merchant Shipping In A Chinese Blockade Of Taiwan,” Naval
War College Review, Winter 2007: 81-102.
99
2008 DOD CMP, p. 43-44.
100
See, for example, Eric A. McVadon, “Alarm Bells Ring as China Builds up its Armoury
on a Massive Sale,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, March 16, 2005, p. 23; Edward Cody, “China
Builds A Smaller, Stronger Military,” Washington Post, April 12, 2005, p. 1; Bryan Bender,
“China Bolsters Its Forces, US Says,” Boston Globe, April 10, 2005, p. 1; Jim Yardley and
CRS-35
Consistent with the goal of a short-duration conflict and a fait accompli, some
observers believe, China wants its modernized military to be capable of acting as a
so-called anti-access force — a force that can deter U.S. intervention, or failing that,
delay the arrival or reduce the effectiveness of U.S. intervention forces, particularly
U.S. naval and air forces. DOD states that:
Some analysts hold that Beijing first would pursue a measured, judicious, and
deliberate approach characterized by signaling its readiness to use force in an
attempt to coerce Taiwan, followed by a deliberate buildup of force, which
would optimize speed of engagement over strategic deception. Others assess that
the more likely course of action would be for China to sacrifice deliberate
preparations in favor of strategic surprise to force a rapid military and/or political
resolution before the United States or other countries could respond. If a quick
resolution is not possible, Beijing would seek to deter potential U.S. intervention;
or, failing that, delay such intervention, seek to defeat it in an asymmetric,
limited, or quick war, or fight to a standstill and pursue a political settlement
after a protracted conflict.101
DOD also states that:
As part of its planning for a Taiwan contingency, China is prioritizing
measures to deter or counter third-party intervention in any future cross-Strait
crisis. China’s approach to dealing with this challenge centers on what DoD’s
2006 Quadrennial Defense Review refers to as “disruptive capabilities”: forces
and operational concepts aimed at deterring or denying the entry of enemy forces
into a theater of operations (anti-access), and limited duration denial of enemy
freedom of action in a theater of operations (area denial). In this context, the
PLA appears engaged in a sustained effort to develop the capability to interdict
or attack, at long ranges, military forces — particularly air or maritime forces —
that might deploy or operate within the western Pacific. Increasingly, China’s
anti-access/area denial forces overlap, providing multiple layers of offensive
systems, utilizing the sea, air, space, and cyber-space.
PLA planners are focused on targeting surface ships at long ranges from
China’s shores. Analyses of current and projected force structure improvements
suggest that China is seeking the capacity to hold surface ships at risk through
a layered capability reaching out to the “second island chain” (i.e., the islands
extending south and east from Japan, to and beyond Guam in the western Pacific
Ocean). One area of investment involves combining conventionally-armed
ASBMs based on the CSS-5 (DF-21) airframe, C4ISR for geo-location and
tracking of targets, and onboard guidance systems for terminal homing to strike
surface ships on the high seas or their onshore support infrastructure. This
capability would have particular significance, as it would provide China with
preemptive and coercive options in a regional crisis.
PRC military analysts have also concluded that logistics and mobilization
are potential vulnerabilities in modern warfare, given the requirements for
precision in coordinating transportation, communications, and logistics networks.
Thom Shanker, “Chinese Navy Buildup Gives Pentagon New Worries,” New York Times,
April 8, 2005.
101
2008 DOD CMP, pp. 41-42.
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To threaten regional bases and logistics points, China could employ
SRBM/MRBMs, land-attack cruise missiles, special operations forces, and
computer network attack (CNA). Strike aircraft, when enabled by aerial
refueling, could engage distant targets using air-launched cruise missiles
equipped with a variety of terminal-homing warheads.
China’s emerging local sea denial capabilities — mines, submarines,
maritime strike aircraft, and modern surface combatants equipped with advanced
ASCMs — provide a supporting layer of defense for its long-range anti-access
systems. Acquisition and development of the KILO, SONG, SHANG, and
YUAN-class submarines illustrates the importance the PLA places on undersea
warfare for sea denial. In the past ten years, China has deployed ten new classes
of ships. The purchase of SOVREMENNYY II-class DDGs and indigenous
production of the LUYANG I/ LUYANG II DDGs equipped with long-range
ASCM and SAM systems, for example, demonstrate a continuing emphasis on
improving anti-surface warfare, combined with mobile, wide-area air control.
The air and air defense component of anti-access/area-denial includes
SAMs such as the HQ-9, SA-10, SA-20 (which has a reported limited ballistic
and cruise missile defense capability), and the extended-range SA-20 PMU2.
Beijing will also use Russian-built and domestic fourth-generation aircraft (e.g.,
Su-27 and Su-30 variants, and the indigenous F-10 multirole fighter). The PLA
Navy would employ Russian Su-30MK2 fighters, armed with AS-17/Kh-31A
anti-ship missiles. Acquisition of an air refueling platform like the Russian IL-78
would extend operational ranges for PLAAF and PLA Navy strike aircraft armed
with precision munitions, thereby increasing the threat to surface and air forces,
bases, and logistics nodes distant from China’s coast. Additionally, acquisition
and development of longer-range unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and
unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), including the Israeli HARPY,
expands China’s options for long-range reconnaissance and strike.102
Regarding the potential time line for a short-duration conflict with Taiwan, one
observer states:
The U.S. (particularly the U.S. Pacific Command/PACOM) seems to want
Taiwan to focus on [acquiring] systems and defensive operational capabilities
that would lengthen the amount of time Taiwan could deny the PRC from gaining
air superiority, sea control, and physical occupation of Taiwan’s leadership core
(namely Taipei). The idea is to permit sufficient time to bring U.S. forces to
bear. The amount of time needed is understood to be at least 5 days, presumably
after credible warning that hostilities either are imminent or are already
underway.136103
China’s emerging maritime anti-access force can be viewed as broadly
analogous to the sea-denial force that the Soviet Union developed during the Cold
War to deny U.S. use of the sea or counter U.S. forces participating in a NATOWarsaw Pact conflict. One potential difference between the Soviet sea-denial force
102
103
2008 DOD CMP, pp. 22-23.
Testimony of Fu S. Mei, Director, Taiwan Security Analysis Center (TAISAC), Before
the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission [regarding] “Taiwan Straits
Issues and Chinese Military-Defense Budget,” September 15, 2005, p. 3.
CRS-37
and China’s emerging maritime anti-access force is that China’s force could include
MaRV-equipped TBMs capable of hitting moving ships at sea.
Some analysts speculate that China may attain (or believe that is has attained)
a capable maritime anti-access capability, or important elements of it, by about
2010.137 Other observers believe China will attain (or believe that it has attained)
Beijing has ... developed a concept to use force, if it feels it must, to defeat
Taiwan, deter or delay U.S. intervention, and at least cause Japan to think twice
before introducing overt military assistance in a developing crisis....
There is, in my opinion, no question that this is Beijing’s concept for
overwhelming Taiwan and deterring or confronting U.S. forces. (McVadon
9/15/05 testimony, pp. 1, 2, 2-3, 6.)
See also Statement of Cortez A. Cooper III for 3/16/06 USCC hearing, p. 3.
136
Testimony of Fu S. Mei, Director, Taiwan Security Analysis Center (TAISAC), Before
the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission [regarding] “Taiwan Straits
Issues and Chinese Military-Defense Budget,” September 15, 2005, p. 3.
137104 Other observers believe China will attain (or believe that it has attained)
such a capability some time after 2010. DOD states that: “The U.S. Intelligence
Community estimates China will take until the end of this decade or longer to
104
One observer states:
By 2008, China will have the capability to credibly conduct short-term sea denial
operations out to about 400 nautical miles from its coastline; and by 2010 may
be able to sustain such operations for a few weeks. Obviously, this capability
does not accrue to the Straits of Malacca and the Indian Ocean — China can at
best hope to “show the flag” for coercive and/or defensive purposes in those
waters until after 2015.
(Statement of Cortez A. Cooper III for 3/16/06 USCC hearinga March 16, 2006, hearing before the
U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, p.3.)
This observer also states:
Looking at a net assessment of emerging Chinese capabilities and U.S. power
projection in the Pacific theater, there is a window of concern between roughly
2008 and 2015. Many Chinese programs focused on Taiwan and the near
periphery (new cruise and maneuverable ballistic missiles, submarines, and
CRS-46
such a capability some time after 2010. DOD states that “The Intelligence
Community estimates China will take until the end of this decade or later to produce
a modern force capable of defeating a moderate-size adversary.”138 The term
“moderate-size adversary” would appear to apply to a country other than the United
States. The issue of when China might attain (or believe that it has attained) a
capable anti-access capability is significant because it can influence the kinds of
options that are available to U.S. policymakers for addressing the situation.
Broader or Longer-Term Regional Goals. In addition to the near-term
focus on developing military options for addressing the situation with Taiwan, DOD
and some other observers believe that broader or longer-term goals of China’s
military modernization, including naval modernization, include one or more of the
following:
!
asserting China’s regional military leadership, displacing U.S.
regional military influence, prevailing in regional rivalries, and
encouraging eventual U.S. military withdrawal from the region;
destroyers) will be fully online around 2008; but some of the US capabilities to
defeat China’s sea denial strategy (missile defenses, littoral strike assets, a
state-of-the-art, integrated ASW network) may not be in place until around the
middle of the next decade.
(Ibid., p. 8.)
Another observer states:
Because the Chinese submarine fleet will operate in nearby waters and in the
mid-Pacific, China need not wait until 2020 to challenge the U.S. at sea. It will
likely have a home-field advantage in any East Asian conflict contingency as
early as 2010, while the U.S. fleet will still have operational demands in the
Middle East, and in tracking Russian ballistic missile submarines elsewhere.
(Tkacik 7/27/05 testimony, p. 8.)
See also Fisher 7/27/05 testimonyPrepared statement of John J. Tkacik, Jr., for a July 27, 2005, hearing before the
House Armed Services Committee, p. 8.)
See also the prepared statement of Richard D. Fisher, Jr., for a July 27, 2005, hearing before
the House Armed Services Committee, which cites the year 2010 on pages 3, 4, 7, 9 (twice),
11,
and 16 in discussing China’s military modernization and the resulting impact on the regional
regional military balance, and Fisher’s statement as printed in 2/6/04 USCC hearing, p. 85, which
Hearing On Military
Modernization and Cross-Strait Balance, Hearing Before the U.S.-China Economic and
Security Review Commission, February 6, 2004. Washington, U.S. Govt. Print. Off., 2004,
p. 85, which states, “It is possible that before the end of the decade the PLA will have the
capability to
coordinate mass missile attacks on U.S. Naval Forces by submarines and Su-30sSu30s,” and p. 88,
which prints his table summarizing potential PLA anti-carrier forces by 2010.
138
2007 DOD CMP, p. 15. Another observer states: “QDR [Quadrennial Defense Review]
planners have recently moved forward (to 2012) their estimate of when key warfighting
capabilities might be needed to fight China, and have postulated conflict scenarios lasting
as long as seven years.” (Loren B. Thompson, “Pentagon Fighter Study Raises Questions,”
August 22, 2005. Lexington Institute Issue Brief.) 2003 CFR task force report discusses
the difficulty of assessing the pace at which China’s military modernization is occurring and
presents a series of indicators on pages 11-15 (and again on pages 64-68) that can be
monitored to help gauge the pace and direction of China’s military modernization.
CRS-47
2010.
CRS-38
produce a modern force capable of defeating a moderate-size adversary.”105 The term
“moderate-size adversary” would appear to apply to a country other than the United
States. The issue of when China might attain (or believe that it has attained) a
capable anti-access capability is significant because it can influence the kinds of
options that are available to U.S. policymakers for addressing the situation.
Broader or Longer-Term Goals. In addition to the near-term focus on
developing military options for addressing the situation with Taiwan, DOD and some
other observers believe that broader or longer-term goals of China’s military
modernization, including naval modernization, include one or more of the following:
!
asserting China’s regional military leadership, displacing U.S.
regional military influence, prevailing in regional rivalries, and
encouraging eventual U.S. military withdrawal from the region;
!
defending China’s claims in maritime territorial disputes, some
of which have implications for oil, gas, or mineral exploration
rights;139106 and
!
protecting China’s sea lines of communication, which China
relies upon increasingly for oil and other imports.140
DOD states that:
China’s near-term focus on preparing for military contingencies in the
Taiwan Strait, including the possibility of U.S. intervention, appears to be an
important driver of its modernization plans. However, analysis of China’s
military acquisitions and strategic thinking suggests Beijing is also generating
capabilities for other regional contingencies, such as conflict over resources or
territory.141
Similarly, DOD states that:
For the moment, China’s military is
Such broader or longer-term goals would be potentially significant for at least
three reasons. First, they imply that if the situation with Taiwan were somehow
resolved, China could find continuing reasons to pursue its naval modernization
effort.
Second, they would imply that if China completes its planned buildup of
Taiwan-related naval force elements, or if the situation with Taiwan were somehow
resolved, the composition of China’s naval modernization effort could shift to
include a greater emphasis on naval force elements that would be appropriate for
supporting these broader or longer-term interests, such as aircraft carriers, a larger
number of nuclear-powered attack submarines, serial production of destroyers,
underway replenishment ships, and overseas bases or support facilities.
Third, such broader or longer-term goals would suggest that even if China’s
military were never to engage in combat with an opposing military, China’s military
forces, including in particular its naval forces, could still be used on a day-to-day
basis to promote China’s political position in the Pacific. This would create an
essentially political (as opposed to combat-related) reason for the United States or
other countries to maintain a competitive presence in the region with naval and other
forces that are viewed by observers in the Pacific as capable of effectively countering
China’s forces.
105
106
2008 DOD CMP, p. 22.
For more on this topic, see CRS Report RL31183, China’s Maritime Territorial Claims:
Implications for U.S. Interests, Kerry Dumbaugh, coordinator. See also Chris Johnson,
“Analysts Discuss Maritime Implications of China’s Energy Strategy,” Inside the Navy,
December 18, 2006.
CRS-39
DOD states that:
China’s near-term focus on preparing for contingencies in the Taiwan
Strait, including the possibility of U.S. intervention, is an important driver of its
modernization. However, analysis of China’s military acquisitions and strategic
thinking suggests Beijing is also developing capabilities for use in other
contingencies, such as conflict over resources or disputed territories.107
DOD also states that:
China’s military appears focused on assuring the capability to prevent
Taiwan independence and, if Beijing were to decide to adopt such an approach,
to compel the island to negotiate a settlement on Beijing’s terms. At the same
time, China is laying the foundation for a force able to accomplish broader
regional and global objectives.142
DOD also108
In January 2007, the Director of National Intelligence stated:
Beijing continues its rapid rate of military modernization, initiated in 1999. We
assess that China’s aspirations for great power status, threat perceptions, and
security strategy would drive this modernization effort even if the Taiwan
problem were resolved.109
Regarding China’s economic interests, DOD states that:
As China’s economy grows, dependence on secure access to markets and
natural resources, particularly metals and fossil fuels, is becoming a more urgent
influence on
significant factor shaping China’s strategic behavior. At present, China can neither protect its
foreign energy supplies nor the routes on which they travel, including the Straits
of Malacca through which some 80 percent of China’s cruse oil imports transit
— a vulnerability [Chinese] President Hu refers to as the “Malacca Dilemma.”...
China’s reliance on foreign energy imports has affected its strategy and
policy in significant ways. It has pursued long-term energy supply agreements in
[various countries]...
139
For more on this topic, see CRS Report RL31183, China’s Maritime Territorial Claims:
Implications for U.S. Interests, Kerry Dumbaugh, coordinator. See also Chris Johnson,
“Analysts Discuss Maritime Implications of China’s Energy Strategy,” Inside the Navy,
December 18, 2006.
140
See, for example, Statement of Cortez A. Cooper III for 3/16/06 USCC hearing, p. 3;
Fisher 7/27/05 testimony, p. 4; McVadon 9/15/05 testimony, p. 1; 2003 CFR task force
report, pp. 24-25, 31-32, 62-63; Edward Cody, “China Builds A Smaller, Stronger Military,”
April 12, 2005, p. 1; David Lague, “China’s Growing Undersea Fleet Presents Challenge
To Its Neighbors,” Wall Street Journal, November 29, 2004. See also Chris Johnson,
“Analysts Discuss Maritime Implications of China’s Energy Strategy,” Inside the Navy,
December 18, 2006.
141
2007 DOD CMP, p. I (Executive Summary).
142
2007 DOD CMP, p. 15.
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In the past few years, China has also offered economic assistance and
military cooperation with countries located astride key maritime transit routes.
Concern over these routes has also prompted China to pursue maritime
capabilities that would help it ensure the safe passage of resources through
international waterways.143
DOD further states that:
The principal focus of, and driver for, China’s military modernization in the
near term appears to remain preparing for potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
However, official documents and the writings of Chinese military strategists
suggest Beijing is increasingly surveying the strategic landscape beyond Taiwan.
Some Chinese analysts have explored the geopolitical value of Taiwan in
extending China’s maritime “defensive” perimeter and improving its ability to
influence regional sea lines of communication....
China’s 2006 Defense White Paper similarly raises concerns about
resources and transportation links when it states that “security issues related to
energy, resources, finance, information, and international shipping routes are
mounting.”... Disagreements that remain with Japan over maritime claims and
with several Southeast Asian claimants to all or parts of the Spratly Islands in the
South China Sea could lead to renewed tensions in these areas....
Analysis of China’s weapons acquisitions also suggests China is looking
beyond Taiwan as it builds its force. For example, new missile units outfitted
with conventional theater-range missiles at various locations in China could be
used in a variety of non-Taiwan contingencies. Airborne early warning and
control and aerial-refueling programs will permit extended air operations into the
South China Sea. Advanced destroyers and submarines reflect Beijing’s desire
to protect and advance its maritime interests. Expeditionary forces (three
airborne divisions, two amphibious infantry divisions, two marine brigades,
about seven special operations groups, and one regimental-size reconnaissance
element in the Second Artillery) are improving with the introduction of new
equipment, better unit-level tactics, and greater coordination of joint operations.
Over the long term, improvements in China’s C4ISR, including space-based and
over-the-horizon sensors, could enable Beijing to identify, track and target
military activities deep into the western Pacific Ocean.
Finally, analysis of PLA training activities provides an additional indication
that the PLA is exploring contingencies other than Taiwan.144
In January 2007, the Director of National Intelligence stated:
Beijing continues its rapid rate of military modernization, initiated in 1999. We
assess that China’s aspirations for great power status, threat perceptions, and
security strategy would drive this modernization effort even if the Taiwan
problem were resolved.145
143
2007 DOD CMP, pp. 8-9.
144
2007 DOD CMP, pp. 22-24.
145
Annual Threat Assessment of the Director of National Intelligence, January 11, 2007,
John D. Negroponte, Director of National Intelligence, p. 10.
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...
China currently consumes approximately 7.58 million barrels of oil per day
and, since 2003, has been the world’s third largest importer of oil and second
largest consumer, after the United States. China currently imports over 53
percent of its oil (around 4.04 million barrels per day in the first three quarters
of 2007), with the vast majority coming by ship and transiting through the
Malacca or Lombok/Makkasar Straits. By 2015, China’s oil consumption will
rise to 10-12 million barrels per day. China is also working with Russia to
develop the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean oil pipeline, with a 1.6 million barrels per
day capacity, to ensure China’s continued access to Russian oil and reduce
dependence on sea-borne shipping for oil imports....
The extent to which Beijing’s concerns over the security of its access to
energy supplies shapes China’s defense policy and force planning is not known.
However, it is apparent that these concerns influence China’s thinking about the
problems of defense planning. China’s 2006 defense white paper states explicitly
in its description of the security environment that “security issues related to
energy, resources, finance, information and international shipping routes are
107
2008 DOD CMP, p. I (Executive Summary).
108
2008 DOD CMP, p. 22.
109
Annual Threat Assessment of the Director of National Intelligence, January 11, 2007,
John D. Negroponte, Director of National Intelligence, p. 10.
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mounting.” It also defines the PLA’s primary tasks as “upholding national
security and unity, and ensuring the interests of national development.”
The PLA appears to be debating how to translate these tasks into doctrinal
evolution, resource allocations, force structure changes, and contingency
planning. However, as China’s current ability to project and sustain power at a
distance remains limited, the PLA, at least for the near and mid-terms, will face
an ambition-capability gap. Currently it is neither capable of using military
power to secure its foreign energy investments nor of defending critical sea lanes
against disruption.
Looking to the future, China’s leaders may seek to close this gap by
developing: extended-range power projection, including aircraft carrier
development; expeditionary warfare; undersea warfare; antiair warfare;
long-range precision strike; maritime C4ISR; expeditionary logistics and forward
basing; training and exercises, especially in open water; and a more activist
military presence abroad.110
Regarding territorial disputes, DOD states that:
Since 1998, China has settled eleven territorial disputes with six of its
neighbors. However, disputes continue over exclusive economic zones (EEZ) and
ownership of potentially rich oil and gas deposits, including some 7 trillion cubic
feet of natural gas and up to 100 billion barrels of oil in the East China Sea,
which has contributed to friction with Japan. Japan maintains that an equidistant
line should separate the EEZs, while China claims an Extended Continental Shelf
beyond the equidistant line to the Okinawa Trench — extending almost to
Japan’s shore. In the South China Sea, China claims exclusive sovereignty over
the Spratly and Paracel island groups — claims disputed by Brunei, the
Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Vietnam. In December 2007, China
announced the establishment of “Sansha City” to assert “indisputable
sovereignty” and jurisdiction over the islands of the South China Sea “and the
adjacent waterways.”
The South China Sea plays an important role in Northeast Asian security
considerations. Over 80 percent of crude oil supplies to Japan, South Korea, and
Taiwan flow through the South China Sea — making these countries especially
dependant on South China Sea shipping routes. In 2007, Vietnam reported
repeated incidents with the PLA Navy in the waters near the Spratly Islands. In
April, Vietnam’s coast guard reported that PLA Navy vessels had captured four
Vietnamese fishing boats, detaining and fining 41 fishermen; and, in July, a PLA
Navy ship fired on Vietnamese fishing vessels, reportedly sinking one ship,
killing a fisherman, and injuring several others.111
Regarding investments relating to broader or longer-term goals, DOD states
that:
China continues to invest in military programs designed to improve
extended-range power projection. Current trends in China’s military capabilities
110
2008 DOD CMP, pp. 10, 12-13.
111
2008 DOD CMP, p. 11.
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are a major factor in changing East Asian military balances, and could provide
China with a force capable of prosecuting a range of military operations in Asia
— well beyond Taiwan. Given the apparent absence of direct threats from other
nations, the purposes to which China’s current and future military power will be
applied remain unknown. These capabilities will increase Beijing’s options for
military coercion to press diplomatic advantage, advance interests, or resolve
disputes in its favor.
Official documents and the writings of PLA military strategists suggest
Beijing is increasingly surveying the strategic landscape beyond Taiwan. Some
PLA analysts have explored the geopolitical value of Taiwan in extending
China’s maritime “defensive” perimeter and improving its ability to influence
regional sea lines of communication....
Analysis of China’s weapons acquisitions also suggests China is looking
beyond Taiwan as it builds its force. For example, new missile units outfitted
with conventional theater-range missiles at various locations in China could be
used in a variety of non-Taiwan contingencies. AEW&C and aerial-refueling
programs would permit extended air operations into the South China Sea and
beyond.
Advanced destroyers and submarines reflect Beijing’s desire to protect and
advance its maritime interests up to and beyond the second island chain.
Potential expeditionary forces (three airborne divisions, two amphibious infantry
divisions, two marine brigades, about seven special operations groups, and one
regimental-size reconnaissance element in the Second Artillery) are improving
with the introduction of new equipment, better unit-level tactics, and greater
coordination of joint operations. Over the long term, improvements in China’s
C4ISR, including space-based and over-the-horizon sensors, could enable Beijing
to identify, track, and target military activities deep into the western Pacific
Ocean.112
At a December 13, 2007, hearing before the House Armed Services Committee,
Admiral Gary Roughead, the Chief of Naval Operations, was asked by
Representative Bartlett, “Why do you think the Chinese are so aggressively pursuing
a blue water navy? They don’t need one for Taiwan, do they? Won’t a brown water
navy do just fine there?” Admiral Roughead replied:
I believe that what the Chinese navy, the PLA navy, is doing is developing
a blue water navy that allows them to influence and control events in the western
Pacific, in — around some of the critical straits and into the Indian Ocean. That
is the navy they are building. They are very unabashed about the fact that they
are building a blue water navy that will operate out to the first island chain, as
they refer.
And as we have seen throughout history, and as we have seen in our own
country over the course of our nation’s history, that we are a maritime nation and
our Navy and Marine Corps and Coast Guard are the maritime forces that can
influence events in that maritime domain.
112
2008 DOD CMP, pp. 29-30.
CRS-42
They also see, as do other countries, the importance of navies to assure their
security and their prosperity, and that is what is going on. And we, as a Navy,
Marine Corps, and Coast Guard, must also value our Navy and what it takes to
be a global navy, to be able to influence events in ways that are advantageous to
our country.146113
A 2007 report by a task force sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations
stated:
China’s military modernization has two main drivers, one with a clear
operational objective (Taiwan) and the other with a clear strategic objective (to
build a modern military because China will be a modern power).147114
Another observer states, in discussing China’s 2006 defense white paper, that
While the navy would have a major role in the event of Taiwan operations, it was
its wider role that was emphasised. “The Navy aims at gradual extension of the
strategic depth for offshore defensive operations and enhancing its capabilities
in integrated maritime operations and nuclear counterattacks,” the paper stated,
while the need to protect maritime trade, particularly crucial imports of oil and
raw materials, was also stressed.148115
Another observer states:
While committed to deterring or defeating Taiwan and thwarting U.S.
intervention, the PLAN’s focus increasingly represents a more general — and
ambitious — goal of attaining the means of projecting power across the sea lines
146
Source: Patrial transcript of hearing as posted on InsideDefense.com.
147
Council on Foreign Relations, U.S.-China Relations: An Affirmative Agenda, A
Responsible Course, Report of an Independent Task Force sponsored by the Council on
Foreign Relations, Washington, 2007, p. 43.
148
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, p. 31 (Executive Overview)
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of communication (SLOC) and protecting the ocean commerce on which China’s
economy relies. Such an objective explains certain aspects of its modernization,
such as the aggressive construction of a new class of nuclear attack submarines
(SSNs). The successful development of the SSNs would allow the PLAN to deter
would-be disrupters of Chinese energy supplies, the majority of which are
transported by sea. Moreover, sea-lane security presents a rationale for the
development of an aircraft carrier, a type of ship that would serve only as an easy
target in a Taiwan scenario — where China’s land-based airfields are more than
sufficient — but would allow for the Chinese military to project its power across
maritime regions far beyond the range of land-based aircraft.
Indeed, these developments indicate that China’s senior leaders and
strategists are increasingly concerned with traditional and non-traditional threats
(e.g. piracy, smuggling, terrorism and other disruptions by non-state actors) to
ocean commerce.149
Some PLA Navy units have recently been deployed outside China’s home
waters. In November 2004, for example, a Han-class SSN was detected in Japanese
territorial waters near Okinawa.150 DIA states that, as part of the same deployment,
this submarine traveled “far into the western Pacific Ocean....”151 Press reports state
that the submarine operated in the vicinity of Guam before moving toward
Okinawa.152116
113
Source: Transcript of hearing.
114
Council on Foreign Relations, U.S.-China Relations: An Affirmative Agenda, A
Responsible Course, Report of an Independent Task Force sponsored by the Council on
Foreign Relations, Washington, 2007, p. 43.
115
116
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, p. 31 (Executive Overview)
Eric A. McVadon, “U.S.-PRC Maritime Cooperation: An Idea Whose Time Has Come,”
China Brief (Jamestown Foundation), June 13, 2007.
CRS-43
Some PLA Navy units in recent years have been deployed outside China’s home
waters for purposes other than making diplomatic port calls. In November 2004, for
example, a Han-class SSN was detected in Japanese territorial waters near
Okinawa.117 DIA states that, as part of the same deployment, this submarine traveled
“far into the western Pacific Ocean....”118 Press reports state that the submarine
operated in the vicinity of Guam before moving toward Okinawa.119
As another example, on September 9, 2005,
China deployed a fleet of five warships ... near a gas field in the East China Sea,
a potentially resource-rich area that is disputed by China and Japan. The ships,
including a guided-missile destroyer, were spotted by a Japanese military patrol
plane near the Chunxiao gas field, according to the [Japan] Maritime
Self-Defense Forces.153
149
Eric A. McVadon, “U.S.-PRC Maritime Cooperation: An Idea Whose Time Has Come,”
China Brief (Jamestown Foundation), June 13, 2007.
150120
Another press report stated:
China said on Sept. 29 [of 2005 that] it has sent warships to the disputed
East China Sea, a day ahead of talks with Japan over competing territorial claims
in the gas-rich waters.
“I can now confirm that in the East China Sea, a Chinese reserve vessel
squadron has been established,” foreign ministry spokesman Qin Gang told a
regular briefing....
No details were given on the size of the squadron or the area it will patrol.
The establishment of the squadron follows China’s creation of two naval groups
in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea off the northern China coast, the agency said.121
117
Mark Magnier, “China Regrets Sub Incident, Japan Says,” Los Angeles Times, November
17, 2004; Martin Fackler, “Japanese Pursuit Of Chinese Sub Raises Tensions,” Wall Street
Journal, November 15, 2004: 20; Kenji Hall, “Japan: Unidentified sub is Chinese,”
NavyTimes.com (Associated Press), November 12, 2004. See also 2006 DOD CMP, pp. 1112.
151118
Current and Projected National Security Threats to the United States, Vice Admiral
Lowell E. Jacoby, U.S. Navy, Director, Defense Intelligence Agency, Statement for the
Record [before the] Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 16 February 2005, p. 16-17.
See also Current and Projected National Security Threats to the United States, Vice Admiral
Lowell E. Jacoby, U.S. Navy, Director, Defense Intelligence Agency, Statement For the
Record [before the] Senate Armed Services Committee, 17 March 2005, p. 17.
152
119
Timothy Hu, “Ready, steady, go...,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, April 13, 2005: 27; “China
Sub Tracked By U.S. Off Guam Before Japan Intrusion,” Japan Times, November 17, 2004.
153120
Norimitsu Onishi and Howard W. French, “Japan’s Rivalry With China Is Stirring A
Crowded Sea,” New York Times, September 11, 2005. See also “Japan Upset Over Chinese
Warships Near Disputed Area,” DefenseNews.com, October 3, 2005.
CRS-51
As a third example,
China said on Sept. 29 [of 2005 that] it has sent warships to the disputed
East China Sea, a day ahead of talks with Japan over competing territorial claims
in the gas-rich waters.
“I can now confirm that in the East China Sea, a Chinese reserve vessel
squadron has been established,” foreign ministry spokesman Qin Gang told a
regular briefing....
No details were given on the size of the squadron or the area it will patrol.
The establishment of the squadron follows China’s creation of two naval groups
in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea off the northern China coast, the agency said.154
121
“China Sends Warships to East China Sea,” DefenseNews.com, September 29, 2005.
2006 DOD CMP, p. 2, states that in the Fall of 2005, “PLA Navy vessels trained their
weapons on Japanese Self Defense Forces aircraft monitoring Chinese drilling and survey
activity in the disputed area.”
CRS-44
On October 26, 2006, a Song-class SS reportedly surfaced five miles away from
the Japan-homeported U.S. Navy aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk (CV-63), which
reportedly was operating at the time with its strike group in international waters in
the East China Sea, near Okinawa. According to press reports, the carrier strike
group at the time was not actively searching for submarines, and the Song-class boat
remained undetected by the strike group until it surfaced and was observed by one
of the strike group’s aircraft.155122 The Chinese government denied that the submarine
was following the strike group.156123
A distance of five miles would be well within the typical defensive perimeter
for a carrier strike group. (Such a perimeter might extend tens of miles, or more than
100 miles, from a strike group’s ships.) It would also be within the reported firing
range of certain modern submarine-launched torpedoes, and well within the firing
range of submarine-launched ASCMs.
The surfacing of an undetected submarine well within the defensive perimeter
of another country’s surface naval formation can sometimes be intended as a
deterrent action — a warning from the submarine-operating country that submarines
like the one in question can penetrate the ASW systems of the other country’s surface
154
“China Sends Warships to East China Sea,” DefenseNews.com, September 29, 2005.
2006 DOD CMP, p. 2, states that in the Fall of 2005, “PLA Navy vessels trained their
weapons on Japanese Self Defense Forces aircraft monitoring Chinese drilling and survey
activity in the disputed area.”
155
naval forces. Whether that was the intent behind the Song-class boat’s decision to
surface is not clear; the boat may have surfaced for other reasons. Since the Kitty
Hawk strike group was not actively searching for submarines at the time, the
implications of the incident for assessing U.S. ASW capabilities against Song-class
submarines are also not clear. U.S. officials reportedly reviewed their ASW defenses
in light of the incident.124
122
Bill Gertz, “China Sub Secretly Stalked U.S. Fleet,” Washington Times, November 13,
2006: 13; Philip Creed, “Navy Confirms Chinese Sub Spotted Near Carrier,”
NavyTimes.com, November 13, 2006; Bill Gertz, “Defenses On [sic] Subs To Be
Reviewed,” Washington Times, November 14, 2006; En-Lai Yeoh, “Fallon Confirms
Chinese Stalked Carrier,” NavyTimes.com, November 14, 2006; Bill Gertz, “Admiral Says
Sub Risked A Shootout,” Washington Times, November 15, 2006; Jeff Schogol, “Admiral
Disputes Report That Kitty Hawk, Chinese Sub Could Have Clashed,” Mideast Starts and
Stripes, November 17, 2006.
156123
Associated Press, “China Denies Reports That Sub Followed Kitty Hawk,”
NavyTimes.com, November 16, 2006. A shorter version of the same story was published as
Associated Press, “China Denies Sub Followed A Group Of U.S. Warships,” Asian Wall
Street Journal, November 17, 2006: 11.
CRS-52
naval forces. Whether that was the intent behind the Song-class boat’s decision to
surface is not clear; the boat may have surfaced for other reasons. Since the Kitty
Hawk strike group was not actively searching for submarines at the time, the
implications of the incident for assessing U.S. ASW capabilities against Song-class
submarines are also not clear. U.S. officials reportedly reviewed their ASW defenses
in light of the incident.157
124
Bill Gertz, “Defenses On [sic] Subs To Be Reviewed,” Washington Times, November 14,
2006: 1. One observer recounts the incident as follows:
In September 2006, Rear Admiral Ding Yiping, China’s top submarine
officer and PLAN Vice Chief of Staff, sent a Song submarine on a mission to
hunt an American carrier. On October 27 (October 26, Washington time), the
submarine surfaced in waters off Okinawa within torpedo range of the U.S.S.
Kitty Hawk, where it was seen in the Kitty Hawk’s wake by an F-18 pilot on
landing approach. It then submerged and disappeared, defeating all U.S.
anti-submarine warfare (ASW) efforts to detect it. The carrier battle group’s
ASW systems did not detect the sub because it had apparently waited —
submerged, stationary, and silent — for at least one day as the task force
CRS-45
Regarding base access and support facilities to support more distant PLA Navy
operations, one press report states:
China is building up military forces and setting up bases along sea lanes
from the Middle East to project its power overseas and protect its oil shipments,
according to a previously undisclosed internal report prepared for Defense
Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld.
“China is building strategic relationships along the sea lanes from the
Middle East to the South China Sea in ways that suggest defensive and offensive
positioning to protect China’s energy interests, but also to serve broad security
objectives,” said the report sponsored by the director, Net Assessment, who
heads Mr. Rumsfeld’s office on future-oriented strategies.
The Washington Times obtained a copy of the report, titled “Energy
Futures in Asia,” which was produced by defense contractor Booz Allen
Hamilton.
157
Bill Gertz, “Defenses On [sic] Subs To Be Reviewed,” Washington Times, November 14,
2006: 1. One observer recounts the incident as follows:
In September 2006, Rear Admiral Ding Yiping, China’s top submarine
officer and PLAN Vice Chief of Staff, sent a Song submarine on a mission to
hunt an American carrier. On October 27 (October 26, Washington time), the
submarine surfaced in waters off Okinawa within torpedo range of the U.S.S.
Kitty Hawk, where it was seen in the Kitty Hawk’s wake by an F-18 pilot on
landing approach. It then submerged and disappeared, defeating all U.S.
anti-submarine warfare (ASW) efforts to detect it. The carrier battle group’s
ASW systems did not detect the sub because it had apparently waited —
submerged, stationary, and silent — for at least one day as the task force
The internal report stated that China is adopting a “string of pearls” strategy
of bases and diplomatic ties stretching from the Middle East to southern
China....125
approached the area. Beijing’s state-controlled media reported that Admiral
Ding had personally commanded the entire operation, perhaps even skippering
the submarine himself, and predicted that the success of his mission would lead
to a promotion....
The official Chinese press noted the PLA high command’s confidence in
Admiral Ding — ample evidence of their pleasure at the success the mission
against the Kitty Hawk. The Chinese foreign ministry’s protest that the vessel
had not stalked the Kitty Hawk is likely the literal truth, indicating that the
submarine simply waited submerged until the U.S. battle group sailed over it.
(John J. Tkacik, Jr., China’s Quest for a Superpower Military, Heritage Foundation
Backgrounder No. 2036, May 17, 2007, pp. 9 and 10.)
CRS-53
The internal report stated that China is adopting a “string of pearls” strategy
of bases and diplomatic ties stretching from the Middle East to southern
China....158
Potential Implications for Required U.S. Navy Capabilities
Potential implications of China’s naval modernization for required U.S. Navy
capabilities can be organized into three groups:
158
125
Bill Gertz, “China Builds Up Strategic Sea Lanes,” Washington Times, January 18, 2005,
p.1. The report stated that China is:
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
operating an eavesdropping post and building a naval base at Gwadar,
Pakistan, near the Persian Gulf;
building a container port facility at Chittagong, Bangladesh, and seeking
“much more extensive naval and commercial access” in Bangladesh;
building naval bases in Burma, which is near the Strait of Malacca;
operating electronic intelligence-gathering facilities on islands in the Bay
of Bengal and near the Strait of Malacca;
building a railway line from China through Cambodia to the sea;
improving its ability to project air and sea power into the South China Sea
from mainland China and Hainan Island;
considering funding a $20-billion canal that would cross the Kra Isthmus
of Thailand, which would allow ships to bypass the Strait of Malacca and
permit China to establish port facilities there.
According to the article,
CRS-46
Potential Implications for Required U.S. Navy Capabilities
Potential implications of China’s naval modernization for required U.S. Navy
capabilities can be organized into three groups:
!
capabilities for a crisis or conflict in the Taiwan Strait area;
!
capabilities for maintaining U.S. Navy presence and military
influence in the Western Pacific; and
!
capabilities for detecting, tracking, and if necessary countering PLA
Navy SSBNs equipped with long-range SLBMs.
Each of these is discussed below.
Capabilities for Taiwan Strait Crisis or Conflict. U.S. military
operations in a potential crisis or conflict in the Taiwan Strait area would likely
feature a strong reliance on U.S. Navy forces and land-based U.S. Air Force
aircraft.126 If air bases in Japan and South Korea are, for political reasons, not
available to the United States for use in the operation, or if air bases in Japan, South
Korea, or Guam are rendered less useful by PLA attacks using TBMs, LACMs, or
The Pentagon report said China, by militarily controlling oil shipping sea
lanes, could threaten ships, “thereby creating a climate of uncertainty about the
safety of all ships on the high seas.”
The report noted that the vast amount of oil shipments through the sea
lanes, along with growing piracy and maritime terrorism, prompted China, as
well as India, to build up naval power at “chokepoints” along the sea routes from
the Persian Gulf to the South China Sea.
“China ... is looking not only to build a blue-water navy to control the sea
lanes, but also to develop undersea mines and missile capabilities to deter the
potential disruption of its energy supplies from potential threats, including the
U.S. Navy, especially in the case of a conflict with Taiwan,” the report said....
“The Iraq war, in particular, revived concerns over the impact of a
disturbance in Middle Eastern supplies or a U.S. naval blockade,” the report said,
noting that Chinese military leaders want an ocean-going navy and “undersea
retaliatory capability to protect the sea lanes.”
China believes the U.S. military will disrupt China’s energy imports in any
conflict over Taiwan, and sees the United States as an unpredictable country that
violates others’ sovereignty and wants to “encircle” China, the report said.
See also Edward Cody, “China Builds A Smaller, Stronger Military,” Washington Post,
April 12, 2005, p. 1.
CRS-54
!
capabilities for a crisis or conflict in the Taiwan Strait area;
!
capabilities for maintaining U.S. Navy presence and military
influence in the Western Pacific; and
!
capabilities for detecting, tracking, and if necessary countering PLA
Navy SSBNs equipped with long-range SLBMs.
Each of these is discussed below.
Capabilities for Taiwan Strait Crisis or Conflict. U.S. military
operations in a potential crisis or conflict in the Taiwan Strait area would likely
feature a strong reliance on U.S. Navy forces and land-based U.S. Air Force
aircraft.159 If air bases in Japan and South Korea are, for political reasons, not
available to the United States for use in the operation, or if air bases in Japan, South
Korea, or Guam are rendered less useful by PLA attacks using TBMs, LACMs, or
126
For discussions relating to Taiwan’s potential military capabilities in such a scenario, see
CRS Report RL30957, Taiwan: Major U.S. Arms Sales Since 1990; and CRS Report
RL30341, China/Taiwan: Evolution of the ‘One China’ Policy — Key Statements from
Washington, Beijing, and Taipei, both by Shirley A. Kan.
CRS-47
special operations forces, then the reliance on U.S. Navy forces could become
greater.
For the U.S. Navy, a crisis or conflict in the Taiwan Strait could place a
premium on the following:
!
on-station or early-arriving forces;
!
forces with a capability to defeat PLA anti-access weapons and
platforms; and
!
forces with an ability to operate in an environment that could be
characterized by IW/IO and possibly EMP or the use of nuclear
weapons directly against Navy ships; and
!
forces that can be ready to conduct operations by about 2010, or by
some later date.
On-Station and Early-Arriving Forces. In the scenario of a short-duration
conflict, on-station and early-arriving U.S. Navy forces could be of particular value,
while later-arriving U.S. Navy forces might be of less value, at least in preventing
initial success by PLA forces.
On-Station Forces. Given the difficulty of knowing with certainty when a
Taiwan Strait crisis or conflict might occur, having forces on-station at the start of
the crisis or conflict is a goal that would most reliably be met by maintaining a
standing forward deployment of U.S. Navy forces in the area. Maintaining a standing
forward deployment of U.S. Navy forces in the area while also maintaining U.S.
159
For discussions relating to Taiwan’s potential military capabilities in such a scenario, see
CRS Report RL30957, Taiwan: Major U.S. Arms Sales Since 1990; and CRS Report
RL30341, China/Taiwan: Evolution of the ‘One China’ Policy — Key Statements from
Washington, Beijing, and Taipei, both by Shirley A. Kan.
CRS-55
Navy forward deployments in other regions, such as the Persian Gulf/Indian Ocean
region and the Mediterranean Sea, would require a Navy with a certain minimum
number of ships.
Although it is sometimes said that it takes three U.S.-homeported Navy ships
to keep one
ship forward deployed in an overseas location, the actual ratio
traditionally has been
higher. For example, if U.S. Navy ships are operated in the
traditional manner —
with a single crew for each ship and deployments lasting six
months — then
maintaining one U.S. Navy cruiser or destroyer continuously
forward-deployed to the
Western Pacific might require a total of about five San
Diego-based cruisers or
destroyers.160127
Stationkeeping multipliers like these can be reduced by homeporting U.S. Navy
ships at locations closer to Taiwan (such as Japan, Guam, Hawaii, or perhaps
Singapore) or by deploying ships for longer periods of time and operating them with
multiple crews that are rotated out to each ship. The Navy has an aircraft carrier
strike group, amphibious ships, and mine warfare ships homeported in Japan, and
three attack submarines homeported in Guam.161 The Navy has also experimented
with with
the concept of deploying certain Navy ships (particularly surface combatants)
for 12,
127
For a discussion, see archived CRS Report 92-803, Naval Forward Deployments and the
Size of the Navy, by Ronald O’Rourke. (Out of print and available directly from the author.)
CRS-48
18, or 24 months and rotating multiple crews out to each ship.162128 Navy cruise
missile missile
submarines (SSGNs) that are homeported in Bangor, Washington, are to be
operated operated
out of Guam with dual crews that each rotate out from Bangor. Each SSGN
will be
operated by three crews before returning to Bangor.163129
Early-Arriving Forces. Having early-arriving U.S. Navy forces could mean
having forces based in locations Western Pacific locations such as Japan, Guam,
Singapore, or perhaps Hawaii, rather than on the U.S. West Coast.164130 Table 5 shows
potential ship travel times to the Taiwan Strait area from various ports in the Pacific,
based on average ship travel speeds. All the ports shown in the table except
Singapore are current U.S. Navy home ports.165131 U.S. Navy submarines, aircraft
carriers, cruisers, and destroyers have maximum sustained speeds of more than 30
160
For a discussion, see archived CRS Report 92-803, Naval Forward Deployments and the
Size of the Navy, by Ronald O’Rourke. (Out of print and available directly from the author.)
161
One of these SSNs, the San Francisco, was significantly damaged in a collision with an
undersea mountain near Guam in January 2005. The ship was transferred to the Puget
Sound Naval Shipyard at Bremerton, WA, for repairs, and is to be replaced at Guam by
another SSN, the Buffalo, in July 2007.
162
knots, but their average speeds over longer transits in some cases might be closer to
25 knots or less due rough sea conditions or, in the case of the cruisers or destroyers,
which are conventionally powered, the need slow down for at-sea refueling. The
Navy’s Littoral Combat Ships (LCSs) are to have a maximum sustained speed of
about 45 knots, but their average speed over long transits would likely be less than
that.
As can be seen in the table, Yokosuka, Guam, and Singapore are less than half
as far from the Taiwan Strait area as are Pearl Harbor, Everett, WA,132 and San
Diego. Depending on their average travel speeds, ships homeported in Yokosuka,
Guam, and Singapore could arrive in the Taiwan Strait area roughly two to four days
after leaving port, ships homeported in Pearl Harbor might arrive about six to nine
days after leaving port, and ships homeported on the U.S. West Coast might arrive
about 7 to 12 days after leaving port. The time needed to get a ship and its crew
ready to leave port would add to their total response times. Depending on a ship’s
status at the moment it was ordered to the Taiwan Strait area, preparing it for rapid
departure might require anywhere from less than one day to a few days.
Regarding the possibility of transferring a carrier from the continental United
States to Hawaii or Guam — an option that DOD considered in 2005-2006 but
decided against in 2007133 — one observer states:
128
For a discussion see CRS Report RS21338, Navy Ship Deployments: New Approaches
— Background and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O’Rourke.
163129
Jacob Sippel, “USS Ohio Arrives In Guam For Crew Swap,” Navy News Service, January
11, 2008; and Oyaol Ngirairikl, “USS Ohio Moors at Bravo Wharf,” Navy News Service,
January 17, 2008.
164
130
Other potential Western Pacific locations, at least in theory, include South Korea (where
other U.S. forces have been based for years), the Philippines (where the U.S. Navy ships
used as a major repair port until the early 1990s), and Australia.
165131
U.S. Navy ships visit Singapore, and there is a U.S. Navy logistic group there, but no U.S.
Navy ships are currently homeported at Singapore.
CRS-56
knots, but their average speeds over longer transits in some cases might be closer to
25 knots or less due rough sea conditions or, in the case of the cruisers or destroyers,
which are conventionally powered, the need slow down for at-sea refueling. The
Navy’s Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) is to have a maximum sustained speed of about
45 knots, but its average speed over long transits would likely be less than that.
As can be seen in the table, Yokosuka, Guam, and Singapore are less than half
as far from the Taiwan Strait area as are Pearl Harbor, Everett, WA,166 and San
Diego. Depending on their average travel speeds, ships homeported in Yokosuka,
Guam, and Singapore could arrive in the Taiwan Strait area roughly two to four days
after leaving port, ships homeported in Pearl Harbor might arrive about six to nine
days after leaving port, and ships homeported on the U.S. West Coast might arrive
about 7 to 12 days after leaving port. The time needed to get a ship and its crew
ready to leave port would add to their total response times. Depending on a ship’s
status at the moment it was ordered to the Taiwan Strait area, preparing it for rapid
departure might require anywhere from less than one day to a few days.
132
Everett is located on the Puget Sound, about 23 nautical miles north of Seattle.
133
DOD decided to home port the carrier in question, the Carl Vinson, at San Diego.
CRS-49
Currently the United States maintains one aircraft carrier full-time in the Western
Pacific. In the event of a conflict with China over Taiwan, however, particularly
given the various [PLA] threats to land-based air outlined above, having more
aircraft carriers on the scene will be extremely valuable. Other than any carriers
that might be transiting through the region, however, currently the closest
additional carriers would be those based on the west coast of the United States.
Given that a conflict with China could begin with little warning, this means that
as much as two weeks could elapse before additional aircraft carriers reached the
area of combat operations. The Department of Defense has already
recommended forward-deploying an additional aircraft carrier in the Pacific, but
it is important to note that precisely where this carrier is forward-deployed is
significant. In particular, an aircraft carrier based in Hawaii would still take at
least a week to reach waters near Taiwan. An aircraft carrier based in Guam,
Singapore, or elsewhere in the Western Pacific, by contrast, could arrive on the
scene in about three days.134
Table 5. Potential Ship Travel Times to Taiwan Strait Area
Minimum travel time in days,
based on average speeds belowb
Straight-line distance to
Taiwan Strait areaa
(nautical miles)
20 knots
25 knots
30 knots
Yokosuka, Japan
1,076
2.2
1.8
1.5
Guam
1,336
2.8
2.2
1.9
1,794
3.7
3.0
2.5
4,283
8.9
7.1
5.9
Everett, WA
5,223
10.9
8.7
7.3
San Diego
5,933
12.3
9.9
8.2
Port
c
Singapore
d
Pearl Harbor
e
Source: Table prepared by CRS using straight-line distances calculated by the “how far is it”
calculator, available at [http://www.indo.com/distance/].
a. Defined as a position in the sea at 24oN, 124oE, which is roughly 130 nautical miles east of Taiwan,
i.e., on the other side of Taiwan from the Taiwan Strait.
b. Actual travel times may be greater due to the possible need for ships to depart from a straight-line
course so as to avoid land barriers, remain within port-area shipping channels, etc.
c. Distance calculated from Tokyo, which is about 25 nautical miles north of Yokosuka.
d. No U.S. Navy ships are currently homeported at Singapore.
e. Distance calculated from Honolulu, which is about 6 nautical miles southeast of Pearl Harbor.
Regarding the possibility of transferring a carrier from the continental United
States to Hawaii or Guam — an option that DOD considered in 2005-2006 but
decided against in 2007167 — one observer states:
Currently the United States maintains one aircraft carrier full-time in the Western
Pacific. In the event of a conflict with China over Taiwan, however, particularly
166
Everett is located on the Puget Sound, about 23 nautical miles north of Seattle.
167
DOD decided to home port the carrier in question, the Carl Vinson, at San Diego.
CRS-57
given the various [PLA] threats to land-based air outlined above, having more
aircraft carriers on the scene will be extremely valuable. Other than any carriers
that might be transiting through the region, however, currently the closest
additional carriers would be those based on the west coast of the United States.
Given that a conflict with China could begin with little warning, this means that
as much as two weeks could elapse before additional aircraft carriers reached the
area of combat operations. The Department of Defense has already
recommended forward-deploying an additional aircraft carrier in the Pacific, but
it is important to note that precisely where this carrier is forward-deployed is
significant. In particular, an aircraft carrier based in Hawaii would still take at
least a week to reach waters near Taiwan. An aircraft carrier based in Guam,
Singapore, or elsewhere in the Western Pacific, by contrast, could arrive on the
scene in about three days.168
Basing additional forces in Japan, Guam, Singapore, or Hawaii could increase
the importance of taking actions to defend these locations against potential attack by
TBMs, LACMs, or special operations forces.169 One set of observers states:Basing additional forces in Japan, Guam, Singapore, or Hawaii could increase
the importance of taking actions to defend these locations against potential attack by
TBMs, LACMs, or special operations forces.135 One set of observers states:
134
China’s Military Modernization and the Cross-Strait Balance, [Statement of] Roger Cliff,
September 2005, Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security
Review Commission on September 15, 2005, pp. 9-10. (Hereafter cited as Cliff 9/15/05
testimony.)
135
For a list of recommended actions for improving the ability of bases in the Western
Pacific to defend themselves from PLA attack, see Roger Cliff et al., Entering the Dragon’s
Lair: Chinese Antiaccess Strategies and Their Implications for the United States. Santa
Monica, CA, RAND Corporation, 2007. Pp. 95-101. (MG-524-AF, RAND Project Air
CRS-50
The operational significance of stationing SSNs on Guam is not lost on Chinese
naval analysts. One observes that “if [a submarine] sets out from Guam,
especially in a Taiwan Strait crisis, it may only require 2 days or so.” A
significant finding of the present study is that even in official journals, Chinese
analysts are exploring Guam’s vulnerabilities. The same author notes that Guam,
in addition to conferring some advantages to the United States in a Taiwan crisis,
also carries self-defense vulnerabilities having strategic implications...
... it is clear that some Chinese analysts perceive Guam to be vulnerable to
offensive attacks.170
Defeating PLA Anti-Access Forces. Defeating PLA maritime anti-access
forces would require capabilities for countering:
!
large numbers of TBMs, including some possibly equipped with
MaRVs;
!
large numbers of LACMs and ASCMs, including some advanced
ASCMs such as the SS-N-27 and SS-N-22;
!
substantial numbers of land-based fighters, strike fighters, maritime
bombers, and SAMs, including some built to modern designs;
168
China’s Military Modernization and the Cross-Strait Balance, [Statement of] Roger Cliff,
September 2005, Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security
Review Commission on September 15, 2005, pp. 9-10. (Hereafter cited as Cliff 9/15/05
testimony.)
169
For a list of recommended actions for improving the ability of bases in the Western
Pacific to defend themselves from PLA attack, 2007 RAND report, pp. 95-101.
170
Gabriel Collins, Andrew Erickson, Lyle Goldstein, and William Murray, “Chinese
Evaluations of the U.S. Navy Submarine Force,” Naval College War Review, Winter 2008:
72.
CRS-58
!
a substantial number of submarines, including a few that are nuclearpowered and a significant portion that are built to modern designs;
!
a substantial number of destroyers, frigates, and fast attack craft,
including some built to modern designs; and
!
potentially large numbers of mines of different types, including some
advanced models.
Countering TBMs. Countering large numbers of TBMs, including some
possibly equipped with MaRVs, could entail some or all of the following:
!
operating, if possible, in a way that reduces the likelihood of being
detected and tracked by PLA maritime surveillance systems;
!
attacking the surveillance systems that detect and track U.S. Navy
ships operating at sea, and the network that transmits this targeting
data to the TBMs;
!
attacking TBMs at their launch sites;
!
intercepting TBMs in flight, which in some cases could require
firing two or perhaps even three interceptor missiles at individual
TBMs to ensure their destruction;
!
decoying MaRVs away from U.S. Navy ships.
Potential implications of the above points for Navy missile-defense programs
are discussed in this next section of this report.
Countering Submarines. Countering a substantial number of submarines
would likely require a coordinated effort by an ASW network consisting of some or
all of the following: distributed sensors, unmanned vehicles, submarines, surface
ships, helicopters, and maritime patrol aircraft. Defeating torpedoes fired by PLA
submarines would require U.S. submarines and surface ships to have systems for
detecting, decoying, and perhaps destroying those torpedoes.
ASW operations against well-maintained and well-operated submarines
traditionally have often been time-consuming. Acoustic conditions in at least some
of the waters around Taiwan are reportedly poor for ASW, which could make the
task of countering PLA submarines in these areas more difficult.171 Success in an
ASW operation is highly dependent on the proficiency of the people operating the
ASW equipment. ASW operational proficiency can take time to develop and can
atrophy significantly if not regularly exercised.
171
See, for example, the statement of Lyle J. Goldstein and William Murray in 2/6/04 USCC
hearing, pp. 148, 150, and 152.
CRS-59
In December 2004, the Navy approved a new concept of operations (CONOPS)
— a new general approach — to ASW. As described in one article,
The Navy’s new concept of operations for anti-submarine warfare calls for
the use of standoff weapons, networked sensor fields and unmanned vehicles to
detect and attack diesel submarines in littoral waters, rather than a reliance on
“force on force” engagements.
Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Vern Clark approved the CONOPS Dec.
20, according to a Navy spokesman. The five-page document will guide the
development of a comprehensive ASW master plan that is expected to be
classified, though it might have an unclassified version.
The CONOPS envisions hundreds or thousands of small sensors that would
“permeate the operating environment, yielding unprecedented situational
awareness and highly detailed pictures of the battlespace.” Attack submarines
that today carry sensors and weapons could in the future provide logistical
support to and serve as command and control bases for off-board sensors and
“kill vehicles,” the CONOPS states. The networking of autonomous sensor
fields with manned and unmanned vehicles will change ASW from a
“platform-intensive” to a “sensor-rich” operation, it adds.172
At a June 20, 2005, conference on the future of the Navy organized by the
American Enterprise Institute (AEI), Admiral Vernon Clark, who was the Chief of
Naval Operations until July 22, 2005, stated:
[The Chinese are] building submarines at a rapid rate. They’re buying them
from other countries. They’re building their own capabilities. And let me just
to make a long story short, I published a new ASW concept [of operations] a
couple of months ago. I fundamentally don’t believe that the old attrition
warfare[,] force on force anti-submarine warfare[,] construct is the right way to
go in the 21st century. [The questioner] mentioned that I had spent part of my
past life in the submarine warfare business. I have. I trailed the Soviets around.
172
Jason Ma, “ASW Concept Of Operations Sees ‘Sensor Rich Way Of Fighting Subs,”
Inside the Navy, February 7, 2005. A January 2005 article stated:
The Navy cannot fight diesel subs with “force on force,” such as sending
one sub to defeat another sub, because that is not cost effective, [Rear Admiral
John Waickwicz, chief of Fleet Anti-Submarine Warfare Command] told Inside
the Navy. For example, the new Virginia-class subs cost about $2 billion each,
while advanced diesel subs cost hundreds of millions of dollars each.
Instead of force on force, ASW tactics will emphasize using networked
sensors and communications to allow one platform — like a sub, Littoral Combat
Ship, or aircraft — to defeat multiple diesel subs, he said. “You have to be able
to destroy them at a very large rate, because potential enemies may have a large
number” of subs, he explained.
“We don’t have that luxury to go one against one anymore,” he added,
noting that individual ASW platforms will rely on their greater capability to take
on multiple subs. (Jason Ma, “Admiral: Navy’s ASW Tactics To Be Aggressive
And Offense-Minded,” Inside the Navy, January 17, 2005.)
CRS-60
I know what that’s about. And what I really believe is going to happen in the
future is that when we apply the netted force construct in anti-submarine warfare,
it will change the calculus in that area of warfighting forever. And it will be a
courageous commander who decides that he’s going to come waltzing into our
network.173
Implementing this new ASW concept of operations reportedly will require
overcoming some technical challenges, particularly with regard to linking together
large numbers of distributed sensors, some of which might be sonobuoys as small as
soda cans.174
Countering Mines. Countering naval mines is a notoriously time-consuming
task that can require meticulous operations by participating surface ships,
submarines, and helicopters. The Navy’s mine countermeasures (MCM) capabilities
have been an area of concern in Congress and elsewhere for a number of years.175
173
Transcript of conference, as posted on the Internet by AEI at [http://www.aei.org/events/
filter.all,eventID.1051/transcript.asp].
An October 2004 article stated:
more than just improving antisubmarine operations, Clark’s goal is to
“fundamentally change” ASW operations away from individual platforms —
ship, submarine or aircraft — to a system with the attributes of “pervasive
awareness, persistence and speed, all enabled by technological agility.”
To meet this goal, “we think we’re going to have to go offboard of our
platforms,” using unmanned aerial, surface and underwater vehicles, and a
network of distributed sensors to provide the identification and localization that
would allow quick transition to the attack, [Rear Admiral Mark W. Kenny, the
flag officer in charge of Task Force ASW] said. “That’s what we’re focused on:
(finding) a high number of quiet contacts in a demanding environment with a
timeline that requires us to gain access quickly.”
The task force has tested those concepts in at-sea experiments focused on
distributive systems, which could be an array of easily deployed underwater
sensors, passive and active, networked together and linked to manned platforms,
he explained.
Among them is the Advanced Deployable System, which the Program
Executive Office for Integrated Warfare Systems currently is studying, along
with such other ASW-related concepts as a multisensor Torpedo Recognition and
Alertment Function Segment (previously known as Torpedo Recognition and
Alertment Function Processor) and the Multifunction Towed Array to improve
detection and tracking capability. (Otto Kreisher, “As Underwater Threat ReEmerges, Navy Renews Emphasis On ASW,” Seapower, October 2004, p. 15.)
174
Jason Ma, “Autonomous ASW Sensor Field Seen As High-Risk Technical Hurdle,”
Inside the Navy, June 6, 2005. See also Jason Ma, “Navy’s Surface Warfare Chief Cites
Progress In ASW Development,” Inside the Navy, January 17, 2005.
175
See, for example, General Accounting Office, Navy Acquisitions[:] Improved Littoral
War-Fighting Capabilities Needed, GAO-01-493, May 2001; and General Accounting
(continued...)
CRS-61
The Navy for the last several years has been developing several new MCM systems
that are scheduled to enter service over the next few years.176 Unmanned surface
vehicles (USVs) and unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) are playing an
increasing role in MCM operations.
Operating Amidst IW/IO, EMP, and Nuclear Weapons. Operating
effectively in an environment that could be characterized by IW/IO and possibly
EMP or the use of nuclear weapons directly against Navy ships could require, among
other things:
!
measures to achieve and maintain strong computer network security;
!
hardening of ships, aircraft, and their various systems against EMP;
and
!
hardening of ships against the overpressure, thermal, and radiation
effects of a nuclear weapon that is detonated somewhat close to the
ship, but not close enough to destroy the ship outright.
Forces Ready by About 2010, or by a Later Date. As mentioned earlier,
some analysts speculate that China may attain (or believe that is has attained) a
capable maritime anti-access capability, or important elements of it, by about 2010,
while other observers believe this will happen some time after 2010. The issue of
whether or when China might attain such a capability can influence the kinds of
options that are available to U.S. policymakers for addressing the situation.
Options for a Conflict Between Now and 2010. Options that could enhance
U.S. Navy capabilities for a crisis or conflict in the Taiwan Strait area between now
and 2010 include, among others, the following:
!
increasing currently planned activities for physically surveying the
physical environment around Taiwan, so as to more quickly update
older data that might unreliable, and to fill in any gaps in
understanding regarding how local atmospheric and water conditions
might affect the performance of radars and sonars;
!
increasing currently planned levels of monitoring and surveillance
of PLA forces that are likely to participate in a crisis or conflict in
the Taiwan Strait area;177
175
(...continued)
Office, Navy Mine Warfare[:] Plans to Improve Countermeasures Capabilities Unclear,
GAO/NSIAD-98-135, June 1998.
176
The Navy’s mine warfare plan is available on the Internet at [http://www.exwar.org/
Htm/4000.htm]. See also Department of the Navy, Highlights of the Department of the Navy
FY 2008 Budget, Washington, 2007. (Office of Budget, February 2007) pp. 3-14.
177
A November 2006 press report, quoting unnamed U.S. defense officials, stated that
Admiral William Fallon, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, “has restricted U.S.
(continued...)
CRS-62
!
increasing currently planned levels of contact between the U.S. Navy
and Taiwan military forces, so as to maintain a fully up-to-date U.S.
understanding of Taiwan military capabilities, plans, and doctrine
(and vice versa);
!
increasing currently planned military exercises that are tailored to
the potential requirements of a crisis or conflict in the Taiwan Strait
area;
!
increasing the number of ships that are assigned to the Pacific Fleet,
or the number that are forward-homeported at locations such as
Japan, Guam, Hawaii, and perhaps Singapore, or the numbers of
both;
!
deferring current plans for retiring existing ships or aircraft before
2010, particularly ships and aircraft whose nominal service lives
would otherwise extend to 2010 or beyond;
!
modernizing ships and aircraft now in service;
!
reactivating recently retired ships and aircraft;178 and
!
procuring new items that can be completed between now and 2010,
such as weapons, aircraft, and Littoral Combat Ships (LCSs).
Options For A Conflict After 2010. Options that could enhance U.S. Navy
capabilities for a crisis or conflict in the Taiwan Strait area some time after 2010
include items from the above list, plus the procurement of larger ships that take
several years to build (e.g., SSNs, aircraft carriers, destroyers, and cruisers), and the
development and procurement of aircraft and weapons that are not currently ready
for procurement.
Capabilities for Maintaining Regional Presence and Influence. For
the U.S. Navy, maintaining regional presence and military influence in the Western
Pacific could place a premium on the following, among other things:
177
(...continued)
intelligence-gathering activities against China, fearing that disclosure of the activities would
upset relations with Beijing. The restrictions are hindering efforts to know more about
China’s military buildup, the officials said.” (Bill Gertz, “China Sub Secretly Stalked U.S.
Fleet, Washington Times, November 13, 2006: 13.)
178
Potential candidates include, among others, Spruance (DD-963) class destroyers, which
could be reactivated as ASW platforms or missile shooters, Oliver Hazard Perry (FFG-7)
class frigates and TAGOS-type ocean surveillance (i.e., towed-array sonar) ships, both of
which could be reactivated as ASW platforms, and ASW-capable aircraft such as S-3
carrier-based airplanes and P-3 land-based maritime patrol aircraft.
CRS-63136
Defeating PLA Anti-Access Forces. Defeating PLA maritime anti-access
forces would require capabilities for countering:
!
large numbers of TBMs, including some possibly equipped with
MaRVs;
!
large numbers of LACMs and ASCMs, including some advanced
ASCMs such as the SS-N-27 and SS-N-22;
!
substantial numbers of land-based fighters, strike fighters, maritime
bombers, and SAMs, including some built to modern designs;
!
a substantial number of submarines, including a few that are nuclearpowered and a significant portion that are built to modern designs;
!
a substantial number of destroyers, frigates, and fast attack craft,
including some built to modern designs; and
!
potentially large numbers of mines of different types, including some
advanced models.
Operating Amidst IW/IO, EMP, and Nuclear Weapons. Operating
effectively in an environment that could be characterized by IW/IO and possibly
EMP or the use of nuclear weapons directly against Navy ships could require, among
other things:
!
measures to achieve and maintain strong computer network security;
!
hardening of ships, aircraft, and their various systems against EMP;
and
!
hardening of ships against the overpressure, thermal, and radiation
effects of a nuclear weapon that is detonated somewhat close to the
ship, but not close enough to destroy the ship outright.
Force.)
136
Gabriel Collins, Andrew Erickson, Lyle Goldstein, and William Murray, “Chinese
Evaluations of the U.S. Navy Submarine Force,” Naval College War Review, Winter 2008:
72.
CRS-51
Capabilities for Maintaining Regional Presence and Influence. For
the U.S. Navy, maintaining regional presence and military influence in the Western
Pacific could place a premium on the following, among other things:
!
maintaining a substantial U.S. Navy ship presence throughout the
region;
!
making frequent port calls in the region;
!
conducting frequent exercises with other navies in the region;
!
taking actions to ensure system compatibility between U.S. Navy
ships and ships of allied and friendly nations in the region; and
!
conducting frequent exchanges between U.S. Navy personnel and
military and political leaders of other countries in the region.
Factors influencing the Navy’s ability to maintain a substantial U.S. Navy ship
presence throughout the region include the total number of ships in the Navy’s
Pacific Fleet, the number of Navy ships forward-homeported at locations such as
Japan, Guam, Hawaii, and perhaps Singapore, and ship-crewing and -deployment
approaches (e.g., six-month deployments and single crews vs. longer deployments
with crew rotation).
Capabilities for Tracking and Countering PLA SSBNs. Detecting,
tracking, and if necessary countering PLA Navy SSBNs equipped with long-range
SLBMs could require some or all of the following:
137
!
a seabed-based sensor network analogous to the Sound Surveillance
System (SOSUS) that the U.S. Navy used during the Cold War to
detect and track Soviet nuclear-powered submarines;
!
ocean surveillance ships with additional sonars, which would be
similar to the TAGOS-type ocean-surveillance ships that the Navy
also used during the Cold War to help detect and track Soviet
nuclear-powered submarines; and
!
enough SSNs so that some can be assigned to tracking and if
necessary attacking PLA SSBNs.179137
Additional measures that could assist in tracking PLA SSBNs include satellite
surveillance (particularly when the SSBNs are in port or if they surface during their
deployments) and human intelligence.
CRS-52
Potential Oversight Issues for Congress
Potential oversight questions for Congress arising from China’s military
modernization and its potential implications for required U.S. Navy capabilities can
be organized into three groups:
!
179
questions relating to China’s military modernization as a defenseplanning priority;
Additional measures that could assist in tracking PLA SSBNs include satellite
surveillance (particularly when the SSBNs are in port or if they surface during their
deployments) and human intelligence.
CRS-64
!
questions relating to U.S. Navy force structure and basing
arrangements; and
!
questions relating to Navy warfare areas and programs.
Each of these is discussed below.
China as a Defense-Planning Priority
DOD Planning. Is DOD giving adequate weight in its planning to China’s
military modernization as opposed to other concerns, such as current operations in
Iraq and Afghanistan and the global war on terrorism (GWOT) generally? Is DOD
giving adequate weight in its planning to the funding needs of the Navy as opposed
to those of the other services, such as the Army?
Military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have led to increased focus on the
funding needs of the Army and Marine Corps, since these two services are heavily
committed to those operations. Placing increasing emphasis on China in DOD
planning, on the other hand, would likely lead to increased focus on the funding
needs of the Navy and Air Force, since these two services are generally viewed as the
ones most likely to be of the most importance for a crisis or conflict in the Taiwan
Strait area. In a situation of finite DOD resources, striking the correct planning
balance between operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and the GWOT generally, and
China’s military modernization is viewed by some observers as a key DOD planning
challenge.
Navy Planning. Is the Navy is giving adequate weight in its planning to
China’s military modernization as opposed to other concerns, such as the GWOT?
Required Navy capabilities for participating in the GWOT overlap with, but are
not identical to, required Navy capabilities for responding to China’s naval
modernization. In a situation of finite Navy resources, striking the correct balance
between investments for participating in the GWOT and those for responding to
China’s naval modernization is viewed by some observers as a key Navy planning
challenge.
CRS-53
The Navy since 2005 has implemented several organizational and programmatic
initiatives that reflect an interest in increasing the Navy’s role in the GWOT.180 At
the same time, the Navy has occasionally affirmed the importance of China’s military
modernization in its budget planning. At a June 20, 2005 conference on the future
of the Navy organized by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), for example,
Admiral Clark was asked to comment on China. He stated in part:
180
For further discussion, see CRS Report RS22373, Navy Role in Global War on Terrorism
(GWOT) — Background and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O’Rourke.
CRS-65
Well, I think that, you know, we’re always quick to point out that China’s
not our enemy, but China is building a very capable maritime capability, and so
we should not be blind to that.
So what does it mean? Well, here’s what I believe that it means. I believe
that if you study the Chinese, you see that there’s been some change in their
thinking over the course of the last number of years. Here’s this mammoth land,
continent; here’s — you know, it would be easy to think about this country as
being land-centric in terms of its national security focus, but what we’re seeing
is that that really isn’t where they’re putting their money. They’re putting their
investments in, and what it looks like, if you interpret their actions, is that their
primary concerns are in the area of aviation and maritime capability that other
nations would bring to bear in their area, in their region of the world. And so
they’re trying to build a capability to make sure that they’re not pushed into a
corner in their own part of the world.
I understand that this morning there was conjecture about their ability to
build missile systems that will threaten long-range land bases and moving targets
in the future, like ships at sea. And I will tell you that whether they’re going to
do that or not, I guarantee you that I believe that it is my duty and responsibility
to expect that, based on what I understand about what they’re doing, to expect
that they’re trying to do that. And I will tell you that the budget submit that’s on
the Hill is providing the kind of capability to make sure that the United States
Navy can fight in that theater or exist in that theater, understanding the kind of
capability that they’re trying to bring to bear.181
138 At
the same time, the Navy has occasionally affirmed the importance of China’s military
modernization in its budget planning. A Navy-Marine Corps-Coast Guard maritime
strategy document released on
October 17, 2007,182139 uses the terms “terrorism,”
“terrorists,” or “terrorist networks”
eight times, and the terms “major power war,”
“major power,” and “major combat
operations” six times. The document does not
mention specific terrorist
organizations (such as al Qaeda) or specific foreign
countries (such as China, Iran,
North Korea, or Russia) by name, perhaps because the
authors of the document
believed it would be inappropriate to do so in a general
strategy document.183140
An October 9, 2007, memorandum on Department of the Navy objectives for
FY2008 and beyond presents six major objectives, along with supporting tasks for
each objective. The second of the six objectives is “Use the Navy-Marine Corps
Team to aggressively prosecute the Global War on Terrorism.” None of the other
five objectives focuses specifically on preparing for major power conflict, though
several of them contain supporting tasks that relate to being prepared for major power
conflict. The document does not mention specific terrorist organizations or specific
181
Transcript of conference, as posted on the Internet by AEI at [http://www.aei.org/events/
filter.all,eventID.1051/transcript.asp].
182
183
foreign countries by name, perhaps because the authors of the document believed it
would be inappropriate to do so in an objectives memorandum.141
Navy Force Structure and Basing Arrangements
Size of the Fleet. Is the Navy planning a fleet with enough ships to address
potential challenges posed by China’s naval modernization while also meeting other
responsibilities?
138
For further discussion, see CRS Report RS22373, Navy Role in Global War on Terrorism
(GWOT) — Background and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O’Rourke.
139
A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower, October 2007, 18 pp.
140
The Navy’s final Cold War-era strategy document — the mid-1980s Maritime Strategy,
also called the Forward Maritime Strategy — referred to the Soviet Union and its military
forces, and to certain other named countries, on several occasions. (See James D. Watkins,
“The Maritime Strategy,” in The Maritime Strategy, a supplement to the January 1986 issue
of the U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings.)
CRS-66
foreign countries by name, perhaps because the authors of the document believed it
would be inappropriate to do so in an objectives memorandum.184
Navy Force Structure and Basing Arrangements
Size of the Fleet. Is the Navy planning a fleet with enough ships to address
potential challenges posed by China’s naval modernization while also meeting other
responsibilities?
As of October 12, 2007, the Navy included a total of 279 ships of various kinds.
The Navy is proposing to maintain in coming years a fleet of 313 ships.185 In
assessing the adequacy of the 313-ship proposal, a key potential issue for Congress
is whether it includes enough ships to address potential challenges posed by China’s
naval modernization while also meeting other responsibilities, including maintaining
forward deployments of Navy ships in the Persian Gulf/Indian Ocean region and
conducting less-frequent operations in other parts of the world, such as the
Mediterranean Sea, the Caribbean, the waters around South America, and the waters
off West Africa. If increased numbers of Navy ships are needed to address potential
challenges posed by China’s naval modernization, fewer ships might be available for
141
Memorandum dated October 9, 2007, entitled “Department of the Navy Objectives for
FY 2008 and Beyond,” and signed by the Secretary of the Navy, the Chief of Naval
Operations, and the Commandant of the Marine Corps. The other five objectives listed in
the memorandum are “Provide a Total Naval Workforce capable and optimized to support
the National Defense Strategy,” “Build the Navy-Marine Corps Force for Tomorrow,”
“Safeguard the People and Resources of the Navy-Marine Corps Team [and] Integrate
Safety and Risk Management into all on and off-duty evolutions to maximize mission
readiness and to establish DON [the Department of the Navy] as an organization with world
class safety where no mishap is accepted as the cost of doing business,” “Strengthen ethics
as a foundation of exemplary conduct within the Department of the Navy,” and “Provide
first-rate facilities to support stationing, training and operations of Naval forces.”
(Underlining as in the original.)
CRS-54
As of March 27, 2008, the Navy included a total of 280 ships of various kinds.
The Navy is proposing to achieve and maintain in coming years a fleet of 313
ships.142 In assessing the adequacy of the 313-ship proposal, a key potential issue for
Congress is whether it includes enough ships to address potential challenges posed
by China’s naval modernization while also meeting other responsibilities, including
maintaining forward deployments of Navy ships in the Persian Gulf/Indian Ocean
region and conducting less-frequent operations in other parts of the world, such as
the Mediterranean Sea, the Caribbean, the waters around South America, and the
waters off West Africa. If increased numbers of Navy ships are needed to address
potential challenges posed by China’s naval modernization, fewer ships might be
available for meeting other responsibilities.
Some Members of Congress have expressed concern in recent years that the
declining total number of ships in the Navy may make it difficult for the Navy to
perform all if its various missions, at least not without putting undue stress on Navy
personnel and equipment. Navy officials have responded that the proposed 313-ship
Navy would be sufficient to perform the Navy’s various peacetime and wartime
missions.
Division of Fleet Between Atlantic and PacificPacific Fleet’s Share of the Navy. Should a greater
percentage of the
Navy be assigned to the Pacific Fleet? The division of the Navy’s
ships between the
Atlantic and Pacific fleets is a longstanding question in U.S. Navy
planning. Atlantic
Fleet ships conduct operations in the North and South Atlantic,
Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the
Mediterranean Sea, while Pacific Fleet ships conduct
operations in the Pacific Ocean, including the Western Pacific. .
Ships from both
fleets are used to conduct operations in the Persian Gulf/Indian Ocean area. Atlantic
184
Memorandum dated October 9, 2007, entitled “Department of the Navy Objectives for
FY 2008 and Beyond,” and signed by the Secretary of the Navy, the Chief of Naval
Operations, and the Commandant of the Marine Corps. The other five objectives listed in
the memorandum are “Provide a Total Naval Workforce capable and optimized to support
the National Defense Strategy,” “Build the Navy-Marine Corps Force for Tomorrow,”
“Safeguard the People and Resources of the Navy-Marine Corps Team [and] Integrate
Safety and Risk Management into all on and off-duty evolutions to maximize mission
readiness and to establish DON [the Department of the Navy] as an organization with world
class safety where no mishap is accepted as the cost of doing business,” “Strengthen ethics
as a foundation of exemplary conduct within the Department of the Navy,” and “Provide
first-rate facilities to support stationing, training and operations of Naval forces.”
(Underlining as in the original.)
185
For a detailed discussion, see CRS Report RL32665, Navy Force Structure and
Shipbuilding Plans: Background and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O’Rourke.
CRS-67
Fleet ships homeported on the U.S. East Coast that use the Suez Canal have a shorter
transit distance to the Persian Gulf than do Pacific Fleet ships homeported on the
U.S. West Coast.
In recent years, roughly 45% to 47% of the Navy’s ships had been assigned to
the Pacific Fleet, including 46% to 50% of the Navy’s SSNs and 45% to 48% of the
Navy’s cruisers, destroyers, and frigates. Increasing the share of the Navy assigned
to the Pacific Fleet could, other things held equal, permit the Navy to maintain a
larger number of ships forward deployed to the Western Pacific. Using the size of
the Navy as of the end of FY2005 (282 ships, including 54 SSNs and 99 cruisers,
destroyers, and frigates), increasing the Pacific Fleet’s share by 5 or 10 percentage
points would result in the Pacific fleet having an additional 14 to 28 ships, including
roughly 3 to 5 SSNs and roughly 5 to 10 to cruisers, destroyers, and frigates.
The final report on the 2005 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) directed the
Navy to “to adjust its force posture and basing to provide at least six operationally
available and sustainable carriers and 60% of its submarines in the Pacific to support
engagement, presence and deterrence.”186
Supporters of shifting a greater share of the Navy to the Pacific Fleet could
argue that responding to China’s naval modernization requires, among other things,
maintaining an increased number of ships forward deployed to the Western Pacific,
and that the low likelihood of war in Europe and the ability of U.S. allies in Europe
to deploy their own ships to the Mediterranean reduces the number of ships that the
Navy needs to maintain there. Opponents of this option could argue that shifting
Navy ships from the U.S. East Coast to the U.S. West Coast could make it harder to
maintain deployments of a given number of ships to the Persian Gulf (due to the
increase in transit distance to the Gulf for ships transferred from the East Coast to the
West Coast) and could make it more difficult for the Navy to balance the
maintenance demands of the fleet against the locations of repair and overhaul yards,
many of which are located on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts
Ocean area. Atlantic Fleet ships homeported on the U.S. East Coast that use the Suez
Canal have a shorter transit distance to the Persian Gulf than do Pacific Fleet ships
homeported on the U.S. West Coast.
The final report on the 2005 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) directed the
Navy “to adjust its force posture and basing to provide at least six operationally
available and sustainable carriers and 60% of its submarines in the Pacific to support
engagement, presence and deterrence.”143
As shown in Table 6, the Navy in FY2007 shifted roughly 20 ships from the
Atlantic Fleet to the Pacific Fleet. As a result, the Pacific Fleet’s share of the total
Navy, which had been roughly 45% to 47% in earlier years, was increased in 2007
to about 54%, and the total number of Pacific Fleet ships in 2007 was about equal to
the number in FY1998, even though the total size of the Navy declined by 54 ships
between FY1998 and FY2007.
142
For a detailed discussion, see CRS Report RL32665, Navy Force Structure and
Shipbuilding Plans: Background and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O’Rourke.
143
U.S. Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report. Washington, 2006.
(February 6, 2006) p. 47.
CRS-55
Table 6. Pacific Fleet’s Share of the Navy, FY1995-FY2007
FY
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Total
number of
ships in
Navy
373
356
354
333
317
318
315
313
297
291
282
281
279
Atlantic Fleet
Number of
% of Navy
ships
total
205
55.0%
292
53.9%
192
54.2%
183
55.0%
172
54.3%
174
54.7%
174
55.2%
168
53.7%
158
53.2%
153
52.6%
149
52.8%
149
53.0%
128
45.9%
Pacific Fleet
Number of
% of Navy
ships
total
168
45.0%
164
46.1%
162
45.8%
150
45.0%
145
45.7%
144
45.3%
141
44.8%
145
46.3%
139
46.8%
138
47.4%
133
47.2%
132
47.0%
151
54.1%
Source: Prepared by CRS based on U.S. Navy data.
As of the end of FY2007, the Pacific Fleet included, among other things, 6 of
the Navy’s 11 aircraft carriers, almost all of the 18 Aegis cruisers and destroyers that
have been modified for ballistic missile defense (BMD) operations, and 26 of the
Navy’s 57 attack submarines (SSNs), or about 46%. (When both ballistic missile
submarines [SSBNs] and SSNs are included in the count, the totals become 34 of 71
of submarines of all kinds, or about 48%.) The Navy reportedly plans to have 60%
of its SSNs in the Pacific Fleet by 2010.144 As of February 2008, the Pacific Fleet
SSN force included all three of the Navy’s powerful Seawolf (SSN-21) class attack
submarines (SSNs). The Seawolf design was originally developed in the 1980s in
large part to counter the Soviet Union’s large submarine force.145
In light of the transfer in 2007 of about 20 additional ships to the Pacific Fleet,
a potential oversight question for Congress is whether the Navy’s steps to increase
the Pacific Fleet’s share of the total Navy are inadequate, excessive, or about right.
Forward Homeporting in the Western Pacific. Is the Navy moving
quickly enough to forward-homeport additional ships in the Western Pacific? Should
the Navy expand the number of additional ships it is thinking of homeporting in the
area?
144
Mike Barber, “Navy’s Fast-Attack Submarine Signals News Mission In Pacific,” Seattle
Post-Intelligencer, February 1, 2008.
145
Ibid.
CRS-56
Increasing the number of ships forward homeported in the Western Pacific can
increase both the number of ships that the Navy can maintain forward-deployed to
that area on a day to day basis, and the number that can arrive in the early stages of
a conflict in the Western Pacific, including the Taiwan Strait area. Observers who
are concerned about deterring or responding to a conflict in the Taiwan Strait area by
2010 might emphasize the importance of implementing these actions as quickly as
possible. They might also argue in favor of expanding the number of ships to be
transferred to Western Pacific home ports. A 2002 Congressional Budget Office
(CBO) report discussed the option of homeporting a total of up to 11 SSNs at
186
U.S. Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report. Washington, 2006.
(February 6, 2006) p. 47.
CRS-68
Guam.187 Expanding the Expanding the
number of ships to be homeported in the Western Pacific
could require construction
of additional homeporting and support facilities,
particularly in locations such as
Guam. Transferring ships from the U.S. West Coast
to the Western Pacific can also
have implications for crew training and ship
maintenance for those ships.
maintenance for those ships.
A 2002 Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report discussed the option of
homeporting as many as 11 SSNs at Guam,146 compared with the 3 that are currently
homeported there. In April 2007, it was reported that the Navy was considering
transferring a
group of three amphibious ships, including a large amphibious assault
ship, from the
continental United States to Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.188147 In July 2007, it
was reported
that the Navy had issued contracts indicating that it intends to transfer
two additional
mine-countermeasures ships in 2009 from Ingleside, Texas (a Navy
home port that
is scheduled to close in 2010), to Sasebo, Japan, where a group of
Navy amphibious
ships and two mine warfare ships are already homeported.189148
Number of Aircraft Carriers. How many aircraft carriers should the Navy
include? The Navy’s proposal for a 313-ship fleet includes 11, and eventually 12,
aircraft carriers. The issue of how many carriers the Navy should operate is
discussed at some length in another CRS report.190149 Advocates of maintaining a force
of at least 11 carriers could argue that, in light of China’s naval modernization,
including the introduction of new land-based fighters and strike fighters and the
possibility that the PLA might, as part of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait area, use
TBMs, LACMs, or special operations forces to attack U.S. land bases in the Western
Pacific, a force of at least 11 carriers is needed to deter or prevail in such a conflict.
Those supporting a reduction in the carrier force to fewer than 11 ships could argue
that such a reduction is acceptable in light of the increasing capabilities of individual
Navy carrier air wings, the Navy’s plan to transfer an additional carrier to the
Western Pacific, and options for improving the defenses of U.S. bases in the Western
Pacific against attack from TBMs, LACMs, and special operations forces.
Number of Attack Submarines (SSNs). Should the number of nuclearpowered attack submarines be 48, or some other number? The Navy’s proposal for
a 313-ship fleet includes 48 SSNs (plus four converted Trident cruise missile
submarines, or SSGNs). Supporters of SSNs have argued that China’s naval
modernization, and in particular China’s submarine modernization, is a significant
reason for supporting a force of 48 or more SSNs. The issue of the SSN force-level
goal is discussed at length in another CRS report.191
187
146
U.S. Congressional Budget Office, Increasing the Mission Capability of the Attack
Submarine Force, Washington, CBO, 2002. (A CBO Study, March 2002), 41 pp.
188147
William Cole, “Pearl Harbor May Get Navy Ship Group,” NavyTimes.com, April 16,
2007.
189148
Christopher J. Castelli, “U.S. Navy Plans To More Two More Minesweepers To Japan
In 2009,” Inside the Navy, July 23, 2007.
190149
CRS Report RL32731, Navy Aircraft Carriers: Proposed Retirement of USS John F.
Kennedy — Issues and Options for Congress, by Ronald O’Rourke.
191
CRS Report RL32418, Navy Attack Submarine Force-Level Goal and Procurement Rate:
Background and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O’Rourke.
CRS-69
CRS-57
reason for supporting a force of 48 or more SSNs. The issue of the SSN force-level
goal is discussed at length in another CRS report.150
Although discussions of how U.S. SSNs would fit into U.S. Navy operations
against PLA forces are sometimes cast in terms of U.S. SSNs fighting PLA Navy
submarines, this captures only a part of how U.S. SSNs would fit into such
operations. On the one hand, ASW is conducted by platforms other than SSNs, and
an SSN is not always the best platform for countering an enemy submarine. On the
other hand, SSNs perform a number of potentially significant missions other than
ASW.
Supporters of maintaining 48 or more SSNs in light of China’s naval
modernization could argue that, in addition to participating in operations against PLA
Navy submarines, U.S. SSNs could do the following:
!
Conduct pre-crisis covert intelligence, surveillance, and
reconnaissance (ISR) of PLA Navy forces and bases. Such
operations could improve U.S. understanding PLA capabilities and
weaknesses.
!
Covertly lay mines around China’s naval bases. In light of the
PLA Navy’s limited mine countermeasures capabilities, the presence
of mines around PLA Navy bases could significantly delay the
deployment of PLA Navy forces at the outset of a crisis or conflict.
!
Attack or threaten PLA Navy surface ships. In light of the PLA
Navy’s limitations in ASW, a threat from U.S. SSNs could
substantially complicate PLA military planning, particularly for an
intended short-duration conflict.
!
Fire Tomahawk cruise missiles from unexpected locations.
Tomahawks could be used to attack on PLA command and control
nodes, air bases, and TBM, LACM, ASCM, and SAM launch sites.
!
Covertly insert and recover special operations forces (SOF).
SOF can be used to attack PLA Navy bases or other PLA coastal
facilities.
Supporters of maintaining 48 or more SSNs could also argue that submerged
U.S. SSNs cannot be attacked by conventionally armed TBMs and ASCMs and are
less vulnerable than are U.S. Navy surface ships to EMP effects and to certain other
nuclear weapon effects.
Supporters of maintaining fewer than 48 SSNs could argue that U.S. SSNs,
though very capable for performing certain missions, they are less capable for
performing others. U.S. SSNs, they can argue, cannot shoot down enemy missiles
150
CRS Report RL32418, Navy Attack Submarine Force-Level Goal and Procurement Rate:
Background and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O’Rourke.
CRS-58
or aircraft, nor can they act as platforms for operating manned aircraft. U.S. cruisers
and destroyers, they could argue, carry substantial numbers of Tomahawks. In light
of the complementary capabilities of Navy platforms and the need for an array of
U.S. Navy capabilities in operations against PLA forces, they could argue, the need
for SSNs needs to be balanced against the need for aircraft carriers and surface
combatants.
CRS-70
One set of observers states that China’s new nuclear-powered submarines:
are entering the PLA Navy (PLAN) at a time when reductions are projected to
occur in the U.S. Navy submarine force; that fact was duly noted by a senior
PLAN strategist recently in one of China’s premier naval journals.192151
These same observers state that:
Chinese researchers display intimate familiarity with all U.S. Navy submarine
force programs, including the most cutting-edge platforms, such as Seawolf and
Virginia. Additionally, there is great interest in the ongoing transformation of
some SSBNs into SSGNs. Ample focus is also devoted to the capabilities of the
Los Angeles class as the backbone of the U.S. Navy submarine force. Beyond
platforms and programs, there is also a keen interest in America’s industrial
organization for nuclear submarine production and maintenance.193152
These observers also state that:
Chinese analysts acknowledge that America has long been dominant in
undersea warfare, especially after the Cold War. Many Westerners are therefore
surprised that China would have the temerity to challenge the United States
directly in this specialized domain of warfare. Yet PLAN analysts keep close tabs
on U.S. Navy submarine building rates and carefully probe for potential
American submarine force vulnerabilities. They have studied the 8 January 2005
accident involving [the Los Angeles-class SSN] USS San Francisco194Francisco153 with great
interest. A 2006 article by a senior PLAN strategist suggests that “China already
exceeds [U.S. submarine production] five times over” and that eighteen U.S.
Navy submarines based in the Pacific might be at a severe disadvantage against
seventy-five or more Chinese submarines. While these assessments are ultimately
attributed to an American source, the PLAN analyst makes no effort to deny or
reject these assessments.195
These observers elsewhere state that:
Chinese naval analysts study the U.S. submarine force in excruciating detail, as
concretely manifested in thousands of both strategic and technical articles that
focus on it....
192154
151
Andrew S. Erickson and Lyle J. Goldstein, “China’s Future Submarine Force: Insights
From Chinese Writings,” Naval War College Review, Winter 2007: 55-56.
193152
Andrew S. Erickson and Lyle J. Goldstein, “China’s Future Submarine Force: Insights
From Chinese Writings,” Naval War College Review, Winter 2007: 61.
194153
The quoted passage is referring at this point to the collision of the San Francisco with an
undersea mountain near Guam — an accident that severely damaged the ship.
195154
Andrew S. Erickson and Lyle J. Goldstein, “China’s Future Submarine Force: Insights
From Chinese Writings,” Naval War College Review, Winter 2007: 71. The first bracketed
phrase identifying the San Francisco as a Los Angeles-class SSN was inserted by this CRS
report for purposes of explanation; the second bracketed phrase referring to U.S. submarine
production appears in the quoted passage.
CRS-7159
These observers elsewhere state that:
Chinese naval analysts study the U.S. submarine force in excruciating detail, as
concretely manifested in thousands of both strategic and technical articles that
focus on it....
Chinese discussions of the American submarine force focus heavily on the
continuing decline in its size. As one article from a People’s Republic of China
(PRC) naval-interest publication states, “The decline of U.S. submarine strength
is inevitable.” Indeed, that a wide variety of Chinese naval sources share this
evaluation suggests that this “decline” now passes for conventional wisdom
within the PLA Navy. The Chinese naval community is likely paying close
attention to internal U.S. debates, knowing that investments made (or forgone)
today in submarine fleet modernization shape the future fleet....
Taking the long view, Chinese naval strategists recognize that force levels
have dropped drastically from Cold War levels. One source observes, “Since
1989, the U.S. Navy’s nuclear-powered attack submarine [force] has been
reduced by half.” A more recent Chinese naval press article estimates that
“[U.S.] nuclear attack submarines will decline in number by close to 40%,
eventually reaching 30 boats.” This calculation is roughly consistent with a
projection in Modern Navy that anticipated a sustained build rate of one boat per
year. Rear Admiral Yang Yi, writing in 2006 on the future size of the American
submarine force, quoted one American analysis as follows: “China already
exceeds [U.S. submarine production] five times over. . . . 18 [USN] submarines
against 75 or more Chinese navy submarines is obviously not encouraging [from
the U.S. perspective].”196155
Number of ASW-Capable Ships and Aircraft. Will the Navy have enough
ASW-capable ships and aircraft between now and 2010over the next several years? Should recently
deactivated ASW-capableASWcapable ships and aircraft be returned to service? The Navy in
recent years has
deactivated a substantial number of ASW-capable ships and aircraft,
including including
Spruance (DD-963) class destroyers, Oliver Hazard Perry (FFG-7) class
frigates,
TAGOS-type ocean surveillance ships, carrier-based S-3 airplanes, and landbased land-based
P-3 maritime patrol aircraft. Since ASW traditionally has been a platformintensive platform-intensive
undertaking — meaning that a significant number of platforms (e.g., ships
and and
aircraft) traditionally has been required to conduct an effective ASW operation
against a small number of enemy submarines, or even a single submarine — some
observers have expressed concern about the resulting decline in numbers of U.S.
Navy ASW-capable platforms.197
As discussed in the Background section, the Navy plans to shift to a new, less
platform-intensive ASW concept of operations. The Navy also plans to introduce
new ASW-capable platforms in coming years, including Littoral Combat Ships
(LCSs). The Navy’s proposal for a 313-ship fleet includes 55 LCSs. Fully realizing
the new ASW concept of operations, however, may take some time, particularly in
light of the technical challenges involved, and LCSs will not be available in large
numbers until after 2010. This raises a potential question of whether the Navy will
have enough ASW-capable ships and aircraft between now and 2010, and whether
196
Gabriel Collins, Andrew Erickson, Lyle Goldstein, and William Murray, “Chinese
Evaluations of the U.S. Navy Submarine Force,” Naval College War Review, Winter 2008:
70 and 81.
197
See, for example, John R. Benedict, “The Unraveling And Revitalization Of U.S. Navy
Antisubmarine Warfare,” Naval War College Review, spring 2005, pp. 93-120, particularly
pp. 104-106; and the statement by Lyle J. Goldstein and William Murray in 2/6/04 USCC
hearing, pp. 149-150.
CRS-72
the Navy should reactivate recently retired ASW-capable platforms and keep them
in service until the new ASW concept is substantially implemented and larger
156
155
Gabriel Collins, Andrew Erickson, Lyle Goldstein, and William Murray, “Chinese
Evaluations of the U.S. Navy Submarine Force,” Naval College War Review, Winter 2008:
70 and 81.
156
See, for example, John R. Benedict, “The Unraveling And Revitalization Of U.S. Navy
Antisubmarine Warfare,” Naval War College Review, spring 2005, pp. 93-120, particularly
pp. 104-106; and the statement by Lyle J. Goldstein and William Murray in Hearing On
Military Modernization and Cross-Strait Balance, Hearing Before the U.S.-China Economic
and Security Review Commission, February 6, 2004, pp. 149-150.
CRS-60
As discussed below in the section on ASW, the Navy plans to shift to a new,
less platform-intensive ASW concept of operations. The Navy also plans to
introduce new ASW-capable platforms in coming years, including Littoral Combat
Ships (LCSs). The Navy’s proposal for a 313-ship fleet includes 55 LCSs. Fully
realizing the new ASW concept of operations, however, may take some time,
particularly in light of the technical challenges involved, and LCSs will not be
available in large numbers for several years. This raises a potential question of
whether the Navy will have enough ASW-capable ships over the next several years,
and whether the Navy should reactivate recently retired ASW-capable platforms and
keep them in service until the new ASW concept is substantially implemented and
larger numbers of LCSs and other new ASW-capable platforms join the fleet.
Advocates of this option could argue that the recent retirements of ASWcapable platforms occurred before the dimensions of the PLA Navy submarine
modernization effort were fully understood. Opponents could argue that even with
these recent retirements, the Navy retains a substantial number of such platforms,
including SSNs, Aegis cruisers and destroyers, remaining Oliver Hazard Perry (FFG7) class frigates, carrier- and surface combatant-based SH-60 helicopters, and
remaining P-3s. They could also argue that there are more cost-effective ways to
improve the Navy’s ASW capabilities between now and 2010over the next several years, such as increased
ASW training and exercises (see discussion below).
Navy Warfare Areas and Programs
Missile Defense.
Countering large numbers of TBMs, including some
possibly equipped with MaRVs, could entail some or all of the following:
!
operating, if possible, in a way that reduces the likelihood of being
detected and tracked by PLA maritime surveillance systems;
!
attacking the surveillance systems that detect and track U.S. Navy
ships operating at sea, and the network that transmits this targeting
data to the TBMs;
!
attacking TBMs at their launch sites;
!
decoying MaRVs away from U.S. Navy ships; and
!
intercepting TBMs in flight, which in some cases could require
firing two or perhaps even three interceptor missiles at individual
TBMs to ensure their destruction.
Replacement for NAD Program. Is the Missile Defense Agency’s seabased terminal missile defense program sufficiently robust?
In December 2001, DOD announced that it had canceled the Navy Area Defense
(NAD) program, the program that was being pursued as the Sea-Based Terminal
portion of the Administration’s overall missile-defense effort. (The NAD program
was also sometimes called the Navy Lower Tier program.) In announcing its
CRS-61
decision, DOD cited poor performance, significant cost overruns, and substantial
development delays.
The NAD system was to have been deployed on Navy Aegis cruisers and
destroyers. It was designed to intercept short- and medium-range theater ballistic
missiles in the final, or descent, phase of flight, so as to provide local-area defense
of U.S. ships and friendly forces, ports, airfields, and other critical assets ashore. The
program involved modifying both the Aegis ships’ radar capabilities and the Standard
SM-2 Block IV air-defense missile fired by Aegis ships. The missile, as modified,
was called the Block IVA version. The system was designed to intercept descending
missiles within the Earth’s atmosphere (endoatmospheric intercept) and destroy them
with the Block IVA missile’s blast-fragmentation warhead.
Following cancellation of the program, DOD officials stated that the
requirement for a sea-based terminal system remained intact. This led some
observers to believe that a replacement for the NAD program might be initiated. In
May 2002, however, DOD announced that instead of starting a replacement program,
MDA had instead decided on a two-part strategy to (1) modify the Standard SM-3
missile — the missile to be used in the sea-based midcourse (i.e., Upper Tier)
program — to intercept ballistic missiles at somewhat lower altitudes, and (2)
modify modify
the SM-2 Block four air defense missile (i.e., a missile designed to shoot
down down
aircraft and cruise missiles) to cover some of the remaining portion of the
sea-based
terminal defense requirement. DOD officials said the two modified
missiles could
together provide much (but not all) of the capability that was to have
been provided
by the NAD program. One aim of the modification strategy, DOD
CRS-73
officials officials
suggested, was to avoid the added costs to the missile defense program of
starting a
replacement sea-based terminal defense program.
The Missile Defense Agency’s (MDA’s) FY2008 budget submission for the
Aegis BMD program divided the sea-based terminal program into a near-term (Block
2008) capability and a far-term (Block 2014) capability. The Block 2008 capability
includes a fuze-modified SM-2 Block IV and is to provide a near-term sea-based
terminal capability against a finite set of SRBMs. The Navy (not MDA) is funding
the modification of 100 SM-2 Block IV missiles. This capability is scheduled to enter
enter service in FY2009. MDA states that the Block 2014 capability is envisioned as
as including a new type of missile, the design of which is not yet determined, that is to
to provide a more capable and robust sea-based terminal capability. Reported options
Options for the
new missile include a system using a modified version of the Army’s Patriot
Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) interceptor or a modified version of the Navy’s new
Standard Missile 6 Extended Range Active Missile (SM-6 ERAM) air defense
missile.198
In light of PLA TBM modernization efforts, including the possibility of TBMs
equipped with MaRVs capable of hitting moving ships at sea, one potential issue is
whether the sea-based terminal program as outlined in MDA’s FY2008 budget
submission is sufficiently robust in terms of schedule and annual funding levels.
Accelerating CG(X) Procurement. Should planned procurement of the
CG(X) cruiser be accelerated?
CRS-62
The Navy is planning to procure a new kind of cruiser called the CG(X) as the
replacement for its 22 remaining Ticonderoga (CG-47) class Aegis cruisers. Navy
plans call for the CG(X) to be equipped with a new radar that, compared to the Aegis
system’s SPY-1 radar, is more powerful and thus more capable for supporting
ballistic missile defense operations. If improvements to Aegis radar capabilities are
not sufficient to achieve the Navy’s desired radar capability for countering
modernized PLA TBMs, then CG(X) radar capabilities could become important to
achieving this desired capability.
As part of its FY2006-FY2011 Future Years Defense Plan (FYDP) submitted
to Congress in February 2005, the Navy accelerated the planned start of CG(X)
procurement from FY2018 to FY2011. The Navy wants to procure a total of 19
CG(X)s between FY2011 and FY2023. If procured on that schedule, the ships might
enter service between 2017 and 2029.199157
In light of PLA TBM modernization efforts, including the possibility of TBMs
equipped with MaRVs capable of hitting moving ships at sea, one issue is whether
198
See, for example, Jason Ma and Christopher J. Castelli, “Adaptation Of PAC-3 For SeaBased Terminal Missile Defense Examined,” Inside the Navy, July 19, 2004; Malina Brown,
“Navy Rebuilding Case For Terminal Missile Defense Requirement,” Inside the Navy, April
19, 2004.
199
For more on the CG(X), see CRS Report RL34179, Navy CG(X) Cruiser Program:
Background, Oversight Issues, and Options for Congress, by Ronald O’Rourke.
CRS-74
it would be feasible to accelerate planned CG(X) procurement. Given the time
needed to develop the CG(X)’s new radar, it might not be possible to accelerate the
procurement of the first CG(X) from FY2011 to an earlier year.
Once CG(X) procurement were to begin, however, it might be possible to
accelerate the procurement dates of later ships in the program, so as to get more of
the ships in service sooner. Issues to address for this option would include industry
capacity and available financial resources. Based on past procurement rates for Aegis
cruisers and destroyers, industry capacity might not pose a significant constraint to
accelerated CG(X) procurement. In light of the CG(X)’s potential procurement cost,
accelerating procurement of CG(X)s to earlier years would, in a situation of a
constrained Navy budget, leave less funding available in those years for meeting
other Navy needs.
Number of SM-3 Missiles Planned For Procurement. Is the number of
SM-3 interceptors that DOD plans to procure sufficient?
The Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) is the Navy’s ballistic missile defense
interceptor. DOD is currently planning to procure a total of 147 SM-3s. One
potential oversight issue for Congress is whether this planned total is sufficient in
light of potential numbers of Chinese TBMs to be countered. A May 2007 press
report stated that:
A preliminary DOD study points to the need for more Standard Missile-3
(SM-3) sea-based missile defense interceptors and Terminal High-Altitude Area
Defense (THAAD) interceptors, according to Lt. Gen. Kevin Campbell,
commander of U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command (SMDC).
The study examined various major combat operations around the world,
estimating the percentages of enemy missiles that would be taken out by
conventional forces or felled by system failures. The current SM-3/THAAD
interceptor inventory then was compared to a list of critical assets identified by
DOD combatant commanders that need to be defended.
Near-term U.S. missile defense capabilities are “limited” primarily by
interceptor inventory, Campbell said at a May 16 breakfast in Washington
157
For more on the CG(X), see CRS Report RL34179, Navy CG(X) Cruiser Program:
Background, Oversight Issues, and Options for Congress, by Ronald O’Rourke.
CRS-63
sponsored by National Defense University. In addition to SM-3s and THAAD
interceptors, DOD also needs more Patriot battalions and ground-based
interceptors, according to Campbell.200158
In late November 2007, Rear Admiral Alan Hicks, the Aegis BMD program
director, reportedly stated that
that even with 132 Standard Missiles (SMs) expected in the inventory by 2013,
there should be more to meet potential global requirements.
“We need more than that,” he said Nov. 28. “Inventory is inadequate to
meet our needs.” ...
200
Jefferson Morris, “Study Points To Need For More SM-3s, THAAD Interceptors,”
Aerospace Daily & Defense Report,” May 17, 2007: 3.
CRS-75
But the admiral acknowledged that Aegis SM inventory also must be
weighed against Theater High Altitude Area Defense and Patriot Advanced
Capability missile inventories.201159
Another press report based on the same speech by Hicks stated that
Hicks observed that the military will have 153 short- and mid-term missile
interceptors in the inventory by the end of 2009, but added that he believes the
Navy needs to expand the program beyond current plans. “Is it enough? No,”
Hicks said. Inventory’s inadequate to meet our needs.202160
Air Warfare.
Carrier-Based Unmanned Combat Air System (UCAS). Should
development of the Navy’s carrier-based unmanned combat air system (UCAS) be
accelerated? Should the Navy increase the number of UCASs that it plans to deploy
on its carrier air wings?
The Navy is currently developing a stealthy, long-range, unmanned combat air
system (UCAS) for use in the Navy’s carrier air wings. AThe prototype for the aircraft
looks somewhat like a small version of the B-2 bomber. The aircraft potentially
could be used for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) operations, airto-air warfare, air-to-ground warfare, and perhaps even antisubmarine warfare. AThe
demonstration program for the system (UCAS-D) is to be completed in FY2013. Theis called UCAS-D. The subsequent
production version of the aircraft (is called N-UCAS, with the N standing for Navy)
would follow in subsequent years.
Some observers, including analysts at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary
Assessments (CSBA), believe that N-UCAS would be highly useful, if not critical,
for countering improved Chinese maritime military forces. N-UCASs, they argue,
could be launched from a carrier shortly after the ship leaves port in Hawaii, be
158
Jefferson Morris, “Study Points To Need For More SM-3s, THAAD Interceptors,”
Aerospace Daily & Defense Report,” May 17, 2007: 3.
159
Michael Bruno, “Aegis BMD Program Chief Calls for More Missiles,” Aerospace Daily
& Defense Report, November 29, 2007: 1-2.
160
Megan Scully, “FY08 Funding Boost To Help Navy Deploy Missile Defenses,” National
Journal’s CongressDailyPM, November 28, 2007.
CRS-64
refueled in flight, and arrive in the Taiwan Strait area in a matter of hours, permitting
the carrier air wing to contribute to U.S. operations there days before the carrier itself
would arrive. They also argue that N-UCASs would permit Navy carriers to operate
effectively while remaining outside the reach of China’s anti-access weapons,
including MaRV-equipped TBMsASBMs. These observers argue that funding for UCAS-D
should be
increased, so as to accelerate the completion of the demonstration program
to FY2011 (a completion date that the Navy had earlier planned), and that , and that
the Navy
should expand the number of N-UCASs that it plans to put on its carrier air wings.203
201
Michael Bruno, “Aegis BMD Program Chief Calls for More Missiles,” Aerospace Daily
& Defense Report, November 29, 2007: 1-2.
202
Megan Scully, “FY08 Funding Boost To Help Navy Deploy Missile Defenses,” National
Journal’s CongressDailyPM, November 28, 2007.
203
Thomas P. Ehrhard and Robert O. Work, The Unmanned Combat Air System Carrier
Demonstration Program: A New Dawn For Naval Aviation?, Center for Strategic and
Budgetary Assessments, Washington, 2007. 39 pp. (CSBA Backgrounder, May 10, 2007).
The authors briefed key points from this document on July 11, 2007, in room S-211 of the
(continued...)
CRS-76
wings.161
Mix of F/A-18E/Fs and F-35 Joint Strike Fighters (JSFs). Should the
Navy’s planned mix of carrier-based F/A-18E/F strike fighters and F-35 Joint Strike
Fighters (JSFs) be changed to include more JSFs and fewer F/A-18E/Fs?
The Department of the Navy, which includes the Navy and the Marine Corps,
plans to procure a mix of F/A-18E/F Super Hornet strike fighters and F-35 Joint
Strike Fighters (JSFs). The F/A-18E/Fs would be operated by the Navy, and the JSFs
would be operated by both services. Marine Corps JSFs could be operated from
Navy carriers to perform Navy missions. The F/A-18E/F incorporates a few stealth
features and is believed to be very capable in air-to-air combat. Compared to the
F/A-18E/F, the JSF is much more stealthy and is believed to be more capable in airto-air combat.
The growing number of fourth-generation fighters and strike-fighters in the PLA
Air Force and the PLA Naval Air Force, and the growing number of modern PLA
SAM systems, raises a potential question of whether the Navy should change its
planned mix of carrier-based strike fighters to include more Navy JSFs and fewer
F/A-18E/Fs. Such a change would produce a force with a better ability to avoid PLA
SAM systems and more total air-to-air combat capability than the currently planned
force.
The Department of the Navy’s planned mix of F/A-18E/Fs and JSFs can be
compared to the Air Force’s strike fighter procurement plans. The Air Force plans
to replace its current force of F-15 and F-16 fighters with a mix of F-22 Raptor strike
fighters and JSFs. The F-22 is more stealthy and capable in air-to-air combat than
the JSF. The Navy does not have an equivalent to the F-22. The Air Force argues
that a mix of F-22s and JSFs will be needed in the future in part to counter fourthgeneration fighters and strike fighters operated by other countries, including China.
Supporters of the F-22 argue that the challenge posed by fourth-generation fighters
in combination with modern integrated air defenses, is a key reason for procuring 381
161
Thomas P. Ehrhard and Robert O. Work, The Unmanned Combat Air System Carrier
Demonstration Program: A New Dawn For Naval Aviation?, Center for Strategic and
Budgetary Assessments, Washington, 2007. 39 pp. (CSBA Backgrounder, May 10, 2007).
The authors briefed key points from this document on July 11, 2007, in room S-211 of the
Capitol.
CRS-65
or more F-22s, rather than the planed number of 179.204162 Potential oversight questions
include the following:
!
If the Air Force is correct in its belief that a combination of F-22s
and JSFs will be needed in part to counter fourth-generation fighters
and modern SAM systems operated by other countries, including
China, would the Department of the Navy’s planned mix of JSFs and
F/A-18E/Fs be sufficient to counter a PLA force that includes
incudes fourth-generation fighters and strike fighters and modern
SAMs?
203
(...continued)
Capitol.
204
For more on the F-22, JSF, and F/A-18E/F, see CRS Report RL33543, Tactical Aircraft
Modernization: Issues for Congress; CRS Report RL31673, F-22A Raptor; CRS Report
RL30563, F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) Program: Background, Status, and Issues; and
CRS Report RL30624, Military Aircraft, the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet Program:
Background and Issues for Congress, all by Christopher Bolkcom.
CRS-77
!
If PLA attacks on U.S. air bases in the Western Pacific reduce the
number of Air Force F-22s and JSFs that can participate in a conflict
in the Taiwan Strait area, would the Department of the Navy’s
planned mix of F/A-18E/Fs and JSFs have sufficient air-to-air
combat capability to counter the PLA’s force of fighters and strike
fighters?205163
A January 30, 2008 defenses trade press article stated:
Boeing is touting an even newer version of its F/A-18E/F Super Hornet
that, paired with an advanced sixth-generation fighter in the works at the
company, would give customers what Boeing deems a better package of
capabilities than Lockheed Martin’s combination of the F-22 Raptor and F-35
Joint Strike Fighter.
The idea is that customers could buy 4.5 generation Super Hornets (perhaps
4.75 generation with the planned extra forward stealth and extra range of Block
3 aircraft) and then switch to a new, sixth generation faster than if they bought
the fifth generation Joint Strike Fighter. To be available circa 2024, the sixth
generation aircraft would feature a combat radius of more than 1,000 miles and
stealth against a much wider spectrum of radars.
“The [Navy] C-version of the F-35 doesn’t buy you a lot that the Super
Hornet doesn’t provide,” says Bob Gower, Boeing’s vice president for F/A-18
and EA-18G programs. “Our strategy is to create a compelling reason for the
services to go to the next [sixth] generation platform. How do you bridge
F/A-18E/F to get us there? We want to convince customers to stay with [Super
Hornet] a few years longer — by adding advanced capabilities and lowering
162
For more on the F-22, JSF, and F/A-18E/F, see CRS Report RL33543, Tactical Aircraft
Modernization: Issues for Congress; CRS Report RL31673, F-22A Raptor; CRS Report
RL30563, F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) Program: Background, Status, and Issues; and
CRS Report RL30624, Military Aircraft, the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet Program:
Background and Issues for Congress, all by Christopher Bolkcom.
163
An article by an Air Force officer raises a related issue — whether Air Force aircraft
have sufficient capability for attacking targets at sea to adequately assist Navy aircraft in
countering Chinese naval forces operating in the Strait of Mallaca area as part of a “string
of pearls” strategy. See Lawrence Spinetta, “Cutting China’s ‘Sting of Pearls,’” U.S. Naval
Institute Proceedings, October 2006: 40-42.
CRS-66
price — so that they can get to the sixth generation faster. If you go to JSF first,
it’s going to be a long time.”
Another part of Boeing’s argument is that the “Navy is comfortable with
the Super Hornet against the highest [enemy] threat through 2024, with the
[improved] capabilities we have in the flight plan,” Gower says. “The ability to
counter the threat gets you to about the point that [Boeing’s] sixth generation is
available.”
It’s part of Boeing’s counterattack on Lockheed Martin’s claim that the
decreasing price of the F-22, which is now at $140 million each, will make it so
attractive that Australia may reconsider its buy –— already being paid for – of 24
— of
24 two-seat F/A-18F Super Hornets. Until Australia’s recent change in
government,
a number of U.S. officials said the government was considering a
second lot of
24 Super Hornets and a six-plane squadron of EA-18G Growlers.
Boeing makes the argument that a sliding in-service date for the JSF is
worrying both the Australians and the U.S. military.
205
An article by an Air Force officer raises a related issue — whether Air Force aircraft
have sufficient capability for attacking targets at sea to adequately assist Navy aircraft in
countering Chinese naval forces operating in the Strait of Mallaca area as part of a “string
of pearls” strategy. See Lawrence Spinetta, “Cutting China’s ‘Sting of Pearls,’” U.S. Naval
Institute Proceedings, October 2006: 40-42.
CRS-78
“The U.S. Air Force and Navy are now talking a lot more about where they
need to go with sixth generation to get beyond JSF,” Gower says. “It could be
unmanned, but I think you will see a combination of missions — some manned,
some unmanned.”
For Boeing, the real discriminators are going to be extended range
(1,000-1,500 miles), a small radar signature against low-frequency radars,
expanded awareness through connections with the network, and the ability to
carry a number of bombs internally.206164
Anti-Air Warfare (AAW).
Surface Ship AAW Upgrades. Are current Navy plans for upgrading
surface ship anti-air warfare (AAW) capabilities adequate?
The PLA’s acquisition of advanced and highly capable ASCMs such as the SSN-27 Sizzler and the SS-N-22 Sunburn raises the question of whether current plans
for modernizing Navy surface ship AAW capabilities are adequate. The Government
Accountability Office (GAO) in previous years has expressed concerns regarding the
Navy’s ability to counter ASCMs.207165 Potential areas for modernization include,
among other things, the following:
!
!
164
David A. Fulghum, “Boeing Plans Sixth Generation Fighter Along With Block 3 Super
Hornet,” Aerospace Daily & Defense Report, January 30, 2008: 1-2.
165
General Accounting Office, Navy Acquisitions[:] Improved Littoral War-Fighting
Capabilities Needed, GAO-01-493, May 2001; and General Accounting Office, Defense
Acquisitions[:] Comprehensive Strategy Needed to Improve Ship Cruise Missile Defense,
GAO/NSIAD-00-149, July 2000.
CRS-67
!
ship radars, such as the SPY-1 radar on Aegis ships or the radars
now planned for the DDG-1000 destroyer and CG(X) cruiser;208
166
!
AAW-related computer networking capabilities, such as the
Cooperative Engagement Capability (CEC) and the Naval Integrated
Fire Control-Counter Air (NIFC-CA) system;209
167
!
air defense missiles such as the Standard Missile,210168 the Evolved Sea
Sparrow Missile (ESSM), and the Rolling Airframe Missile (RAM);
206
David A. Fulghum, “Boeing Plans Sixth Generation Fighter Along With Block 3 Super
Hornet,” Aerospace Daily & Defense Report, January 30, 2008: 1-2.
207
General Accounting Office, Navy Acquisitions[:] Improved Littoral War-Fighting
Capabilities Needed, GAO-01-493, May 2001; and General Accounting Office, Defense
Acquisitions[:] Comprehensive Strategy Needed to Improve Ship Cruise Missile Defense,
GAO/NSIAD-00-149, July 2000.
208!
close-in weapon systems, such as the Phalanx radar-directed gun;
!
potential directed-energy weapons, such as solid state or freeelectron lasers;
!
decoys, such as the U.S.-Australian Nulka active electronic decoy;
and
!
aerial targets for AAW tests and exercises, particularly targets for
emulating supersonic ASCMs.169
166
For more on the DDG-1000 and CG(X), see CRS Report RL32109, Navy DDG-1000
Destroyer Program: Background, Oversight Issues, and Options for Congress, by Ronald
O’Rourke, and CRS Report RL34179, Navy CG(X) Cruiser Program: Background,
Oversight Issues, and Options for Congress, by Ronald O’Rourke.
209167
For more on CEC and NIFC-CA, see CRS Report RS20557, Navy Network-Centric
Warfare Concept: Key Programs and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O’Rourke.
210168
The Navy is currently developing a new version of the Standard Missile called the SM-6
Extended Range Active Missile (ERAM) that will have a considerably longer range than the
current SM-2 air defense missile. The SM-6 will also have an active seeker that will permit
the missile to home in on the target on its own, without being illuminated by a ship-based
radar, as is the case with the SM-2.
CRS-79
!
close-in weapon systems, such as the Phalanx radar-directed gun;
!
potential directed-energy weapons, such as solid state or freeelectron lasers;
!
decoys, such as the U.S.-Australian Nulka active electronic decoy;
and
!
aerial targets for AAW tests and exercises, particularly targets for
emulating supersonic ASCMs.211
Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) AAW Capability. Should the currently
planned AAW capability of the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) be increased?
211
169
An October 2005 report from the Defense Science Board (DSB) highlights “The dire
need for several types of supersonic targets to represent existing anti-ship cruise missile
threats.” (Page 1) The report states:
The Russians have produced and deployed a variety of supersonic, anti-ship
cruise missiles. Some of these missiles are sea-skimming vehicles; others attack
from high altitudes. At the time of the Task Force, the United States had zero
capability to test its air defense systems such as AEGIS or Improved Sea Sparrow
against supersonic targets, and the Task Force views this shortfall as the major
deficiency in our overall aerial targets enterprise. Aggressive actions are needed
to fix the problem. (Department of Defense, Report of the Defense Science
Board Task Force on Aerial Targets. Washington, 2005. (October 2005, Office
of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics)
pp. 2.)
A cover memorandum attached to the report from William P. Delaney and General Michael
Williams, USMC (Ret.), the co-chairmen of the task force, states:
CRS-68
Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) AAW Capability. Should the currently
planned AAW capability of the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) be increased?
The Navy’s Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) is to be armed with 11 Rolling
Airframe Missiles (RAMs). The ship will also be equipped with an AAW decoy
launcher.170
The PLA’s acquisition of ASCMs that can be fired from aircraft, surface ships,
and submarines raises the possibility that LCSs participating in a conflict in the
Taiwan Strait area could come under attack by substantial numbers of ASCMs.
Other Navy ships, such as Aegis cruisers and destroyers and, in the future, DDG1000 destroyers and CG(X)s cruisers, could help defend LCSs against attacking
ASCMs, but such ships might not always be in the best position to do this,
particularly if ASCMs are launched at LCSs from undetected submarines or if the
supporting U.S. Navy ships are busy performing other duties. If LCSs were damaged
or sunk by ASCMs, the Navy’s ability to counter enemy mines, submarines, and
small boats — the LCS’s three primary missions — would be reduced.
The possibility that the LCS’s AAW system might be overwhelmed or
exhausted by attacks from multiple ASCMs raises the question of whether the AAW
capability planned for the LCS should be increased. Options for increasing the
LCS’s planned AAW capability include, among other things, adding another 11round RAM launcher or supplementing the currently planned RAM launcher with a
battery of Evolved Sea Sparrow (ESSM) missiles. In assessing such options, one
factor to consider would be whether installing additional RAMs or ESSMs would
require an increase in the planned size and cost of the LCS.
Antisubmarine Warfare (ASW). Countering a substantial number of
submarines would likely require a coordinated effort by an ASW network consisting
of some or all of the following: distributed sensors, unmanned vehicles, submarines,
surface ships, helicopters, and maritime patrol aircraft. Defeating torpedoes fired by
The area of greatest concern to the Task Force was our gap in supersonic antiship cruise missiles for testing. The Russians have deployed at least three such
cruise missiles that involve either sea-skimming flight profiles or a high-altitude
profile involving a power dive to the target. At this time, we have no test
vehicles for either flight profile.
See also Tony Capaccio, “Navy Can’t Test Defense Against China’s ‘Sizzler’ Until 2014,”
Bloomberg.com, April 3, 2008; John Liang, “DSB Highlights ‘Dire’ Need For Supersonic
Cruise Missile Targets,”
Inside the Navy, November 14, 2005.
The lack of targets for fully emulating supersonic ASCMs has been an issue since the early
1980s, when the Navy first deployed the Aegis AAW system. See CRS Report 84-180, The
Aegis Anti-Air Warfare System: Its Principal Components, Its Installation On The CG-47
And DDG-51 Class Ships, And Its Effectiveness, by Ronald O’Rourke. (October 24, 1984)
pp. 16-17. (This report is out of print and is available directly from the author.)
CRS-80
The Navy’s Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) is to be armed with 11 Rolling
Airframe Missiles (RAMs). The ship will also be equipped with an AAW decoy
launcher.212
The PLA’s acquisition of ASCMs that can be fired from aircraft, surface ships,
and submarines raises the possibility that LCSs participating in a conflict in the
Taiwan Strait area could come under attack by substantial numbers of ASCMs.
Other Navy ships, such as Aegis cruisers and destroyers and, in the future, DDG1000 destroyers and CG(X)s cruisers, could help defend LCSs against attacking
ASCMs, but such ships might not always be in the best position to do this,
particularly if ASCMs are launched at LCSs from undetected submarines or if the
supporting U.S. Navy ships are busy performing other duties. If LCSs were damaged
or sunk by ASCMs, the Navy’s ability to counter enemy mines, submarines, and
small boats — the LCS’s three primary missions — would be reduced.
The possibility that the LCS’s AAW system might be overwhelmed or
exhausted by attacks from multiple ASCMs raises the question of whether the AAW
capability planned for the LCS should be increased. Options for increasing the
LCS’s planned AAW capability include, among other things, adding another 11round RAM launcher or supplementing the currently planned RAM launcher with a
battery of Evolved Sea Sparrow (ESSM) missiles. In assessing such options, one
factor to consider would be whether installing additional RAMs or ESSMs would
require an increase in the planned size and cost of the LCS.
Antisubmarine Warfare (ASW).
170
For more on the LCS, see CRS Report RL33741, Navy Littoral Combat Ship (LCS)
Program: Background, Oversight Issues, and Options for Congress, by Ronald O’Rourke.
CRS-69
PLA submarines would require U.S. submarines and surface ships to have systems
for detecting, decoying, and perhaps destroying those torpedoes.
ASW operations against well-maintained and well-operated submarines
traditionally have often been time-consuming. Acoustic conditions in at least some
of the waters around Taiwan are reportedly poor for ASW, which could make the
task of countering PLA submarines in these areas more difficult.171 Success in an
ASW operation is highly dependent on the proficiency of the people operating the
ASW equipment. ASW operational proficiency can take time to develop and can
atrophy significantly if not regularly exercised.
In December 2004, the Navy approved a new concept of operations (CONOPS)
— a new general approach — to ASW. As described in one article,
The Navy’s new concept of operations for anti-submarine warfare calls for
the use of standoff weapons, networked sensor fields and unmanned vehicles to
detect and attack diesel submarines in littoral waters, rather than a reliance on
“force on force” engagements.
Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Vern Clark approved the CONOPS Dec.
20, according to a Navy spokesman. The five-page document will guide the
development of a comprehensive ASW master plan that is expected to be
classified, though it might have an unclassified version.
The CONOPS envisions hundreds or thousands of small sensors that would
“permeate the operating environment, yielding unprecedented situational
awareness and highly detailed pictures of the battlespace.” Attack submarines
that today carry sensors and weapons could in the future provide logistical
support to and serve as command and control bases for off-board sensors and
“kill vehicles,” the CONOPS states. The networking of autonomous sensor
fields with manned and unmanned vehicles will change ASW from a
“platform-intensive” to a “sensor-rich” operation, it adds.172
171
See, for example, the statement of Lyle J. Goldstein and William Murray in Hearing On
Military Modernization and Cross-Strait Balance, Hearing Before the U.S.-China Economic
and Security Review Commission, February 6, 2004, pp. 148, 150, and 152.
172
Jason Ma, “ASW Concept Of Operations Sees ‘Sensor Rich Way Of Fighting Subs,”
Inside the Navy, February 7, 2005. A January 2005 article stated:
The Navy cannot fight diesel subs with “force on force,” such as sending
one sub to defeat another sub, because that is not cost effective, [Rear Admiral
John Waickwicz, chief of Fleet Anti-Submarine Warfare Command] told Inside
the Navy. For example, the new Virginia-class subs cost about $2 billion each,
while advanced diesel subs cost hundreds of millions of dollars each.
Instead of force on force, ASW tactics will emphasize using networked
sensors and communications to allow one platform — like a sub, Littoral Combat
Ship, or aircraft — to defeat multiple diesel subs, he said. “You have to be able
to destroy them at a very large rate, because potential enemies may have a large
number” of subs, he explained.
“We don’t have that luxury to go one against one anymore,” he added,
CRS-70
At a June 20, 2005, conference on the future of the Navy organized by the
American Enterprise Institute (AEI), Admiral Vernon Clark, who was the Chief of
Naval Operations (CNO) until July 22, 2005, stated:
[The Chinese are] building submarines at a rapid rate. They’re buying them
from other countries. They’re building their own capabilities. And let me just
to make a long story short, I published a new ASW concept [of operations] a
couple of months ago. I fundamentally don’t believe that the old attrition
warfare[,] force on force anti-submarine warfare[,] construct is the right way to
go in the 21st century. [The questioner] mentioned that I had spent part of my
past life in the submarine warfare business. I have. I trailed the Soviets around.
I know what that’s about. And what I really believe is going to happen in the
future is that when we apply the netted force construct in anti-submarine warfare,
it will change the calculus in that area of warfighting forever. And it will be a
courageous commander who decides that he’s going to come waltzing into our
network.173
noting that individual ASW platforms will rely on their greater capability to take
on multiple subs. (Jason Ma, “Admiral: Navy’s ASW Tactics To Be Aggressive
And Offense-Minded,” Inside the Navy, January 17, 2005.)
173
Transcript of conference, as posted on the Internet by AEI at [http://www.aei.org/events/
filter.all,eventID.1051/transcript.asp].
An October 2004 article stated:
more than just improving antisubmarine operations, Clark’s goal is to
“fundamentally change” ASW operations away from individual platforms —
ship, submarine or aircraft — to a system with the attributes of “pervasive
awareness, persistence and speed, all enabled by technological agility.”
To meet this goal, “we think we’re going to have to go offboard of our
platforms,” using unmanned aerial, surface and underwater vehicles, and a
network of distributed sensors to provide the identification and localization that
would allow quick transition to the attack, [Rear Admiral Mark W. Kenny, the
flag officer in charge of Task Force ASW] said. “That’s what we’re focused on:
(finding) a high number of quiet contacts in a demanding environment with a
timeline that requires us to gain access quickly.”
The task force has tested those concepts in at-sea experiments focused on
distributive systems, which could be an array of easily deployed underwater
sensors, passive and active, networked together and linked to manned platforms,
he explained.
Among them is the Advanced Deployable System, which the Program
Executive Office for Integrated Warfare Systems currently is studying, along
with such other ASW-related concepts as a multisensor Torpedo Recognition and
Alertment Function Segment (previously known as Torpedo Recognition and
Alertment Function Processor) and the Multifunction Towed Array to improve
detection and tracking capability. (Otto Kreisher, “As Underwater Threat ReEmerges, Navy Renews Emphasis On ASW,” Seapower, October 2004, p. 15.)
CRS-71
Implementing this new ASW concept of operations reportedly will require
overcoming some technical challenges, particularly with regard to linking together
large numbers of distributed sensors, some of which might be sonobuoys as small as
soda cans.174
Technologies. Are current Navy efforts for improving antisubmarine warfare
(ASW) technologies adequate?
In addition to the issue discussed earlier of whether the Navy between now and
2010 will have enough ASW-capable platforms, another potential issue raised by the
PLA submarine modernization effort is whether current Navy plans for improving
antisubmarine warfare (ASW) technologies are adequate. The Navy states that it
intends to introduce several new ASW technologies, including distributed sensors,
unmanned vehicles, and technologies for networking ASW systems and platforms.
In March 2007, Admiral Mullen, who was then the CNO, testified that:
Submarines with improving stealth and attack capability — particularly
modern diesel attack submarines — are proliferating world-wide at an alarming
rate. Locating these relatively inexpensive but extremely quiet boats presents our
Navy with a formidable challenge. Navy is pursuing a distributed and netted
approach to ASW. Some of the key ASW programs we must continue to develop
and field as quickly as possible include: the Deployable Distributed Autonomous
system (DADS); the Reliable Acoustic Path Vertical Line Array (RAPVLA); the
Surface Ship Torpedo Defense System (SSTD); the Aircraft Carrier Periscope
Detection Radar (CVNPDR); and, the High Altitude ASW Weapon Concept
(HAAWC)....
212
For more on the LCS, see CRS Report RL33741, Navy Littoral Combat Ship (LCS)
Program: Background, Oversight Issues, and Options for Congress, by Ronald O’Rourke.
CRS-81
The Navy continues to pursue research and development of Distributed
Netted Sensors (DNS); low-cost, rapidly deployable, autonomous sensors that
can be fielded in sufficient numbers to provide the cueing and detection of
adversary submarines far from the Sea Base. Examples of our FY 2008 request
of $24 million in these technologies include:
• Reliable Acoustic Path, Vertical Line Array (RAP VLA). A passive-only
distributed system exploiting the deep water propagation phenomena. In essence,
a towed array vertically suspended in the water column.
• Deep Water Active Distributed System (DWADS). An active sonar distributed
system optimized for use in deep water.
• Deployable Autonomous Distributed System (DADS). A shallow water array,
using both acoustic and non-acoustic sensors to detect passing submarines.
DADS will test at sea in FY 2008.
• Littoral ASW Multi-static Project (LAMP). A shallow water distributed buoy
system employing the advanced principles of multi-static (many receivers,
one/few active sources) sonar propagation.
174
Jason Ma, “Autonomous ASW Sensor Field Seen As High-Risk Technical Hurdle,”
Inside the Navy, June 6, 2005. See also Jason Ma, “Navy’s Surface Warfare Chief Cites
Progress In ASW Development,” Inside the Navy, January 17, 2005.
CRS-72
Further developing the Undersea Warfare Decision Support System
(USW-DSS) will leverage existing data-links, networks, and sensor data from air,
surface, and sub-surface platforms and integrate them into a common ASW
operating picture with tactical decision aids to better plan, conduct, and
coordinate ASW operations. We are requesting $23 million in FY 2008 towards
this system.
To engage the threat, our forces must have the means to attack effectively
the first time, every time. The Navy has continued a robust weapons development
investment plan including $293 million requested in the FY 2008 on such
capabilities as:
• High-Altitude ASW Weapons Concept (HAAWC). Current maritime patrol
aircraft must descend to very low altitude to place ASW weapons on target, often
losing communications with the sonobuoy (or distributed sensor) field. This
allows the aircraft to remain at high altitude and conduct an effective attack
while simultaneously enabling the crew to maintain and exploit the full sensor
field in the process. This capability will be particularly important in concert with
the new jet-powered P-8A MMA. A test is scheduled for May 2007.
• Common Very Lightweight Torpedo (CVLWT). The Navy is developing a
6.75” torpedo suitable for use in the surface ship and submarine antitorpedo
torpedo defense, and the offensive Compact Rapid Attack Weapon (CRAW)
intended for the developing manned and unmanned aerial vehicles....
Platform Sensor Improvements. Against the quieter, modern diesel-electric
submarines, work continues on both towed arrays and hull mounted sonars. Our
$410 million request in FY 2008 includes work on the following:
• TB-33 thin-line towed array upgrades to forward deployed SSN’s provides near
term improvement in submarine towed array reliability over existing TB-29
arrays. TB-33 upgrades are being accelerated to Guam based SSN’s.
CRS-82
• Continued development of twin-line thin line (TLTL) and vector-sensor towed
arrays (VSTA) are under development for mid-far term capability gaps. TLTL
enables longer detection ranges/contact holding times, improves localization, and
classification of contacts. VSTA is an Office of Naval Research project that
would provide TLTL capability on a single array while still obviating the bearing
ambiguity issue inherent in traditional single line arrays.213175
Training and Exercises. Are current Navy plans for ASW training and
exercises adequate?
As mentioned earlier, success in an ASW operation is highly dependent on the
proficiency of the people operating the ASW equipment, and ASW operational
proficiency can take time to develop and can atrophy significantly if not regularly
exercised. At various times since the end of the Cold War, some observers have
expressed concerns about whether the Navy was placing adequate emphasis on
maintaining ASW proficiency. The Navy in April 2004 established a new Fleet
ASW Command, based in San Diego, to provide more focus to its ASW efforts, and
since then has taken various steps to enhance its ASW training and exercises,
including the following:
!
In April 2004, it was reported that carrier strike groups deploying
from the U.S. West Coast would now stop in Hawaiian waters for
three- to five-day ASW exercises before proceeding to the Western
Pacific.214
!
In March 2005, the Navy reached an agreement to lease a Swedish
non-nuclear-powered submarine and its crew for a 12-month period.
The submarine, which is equipped with an air-independent
propulsion (AIP) system, arrived in San Diego in June 2005, where
it was used as a mock enemy submarine in Pacific Fleet ASW
exercises.215
!
The Navy in 2005 also reached an agreement with Colombia and
Peru under which one non-nuclear-powered submarine from each
country deployed to the Navy base at Mayport, FL, in April 2005 to
support Atlantic Fleet ASW exercises for a period of two to five
213
Statement of Admiral Michael G. Mullen, Chief of Naval Operations, Before the House
Armed Services Committee, 01 March 2007, pp. 8, 43-45.
214
Christopher Munsey, “Fleet Anti-Sub Command Stands Up,” Navy Times, April 19, 2004,
p. 29. See also Audrey McAvoy, “U.S. Navy Puts New Emphasis On Anti-Submarine
Training; New Threat From China Seen,” NavyTimes.com, January 26, 2006; and a similar
article by the same author, “USS Ronald Reagan Trains To Find Silent Threat,” Honolulu
Star-Bulletin, January 22, 2006.
215
Jose Higuera, “Sweden’s Gotland Heads For A Year With US Navy,” Jane’s Navy
International, July/August 2005; 8; S. C. Irwin, “Swedish Submarine Expected To Enhance
Navy’s Antisubmarine Warfare Primacy,” Navy Newsstand, June 20, 2005; Gidget Fuentes,
“Swedish Sub To Drill With U.S. Navy For A Year,” DefenseNews.com, May 18, 2005;
“U.S., Swedish Navies Sign Agreement To Bilaterally Train On State-Of-The-Art Sub,”
Navy Newsstand, March 23, 2005.
CRS-83
months. South American non-nuclear-powered submarines have
been integrated into U.S. Navy exercises since 2002.216
!
In October 2005, the commander of the Navy’s Pacific Fleet said
that, upon assuming command earlier in the year, he made ASW his
highest priority and instituted a cyclic approach to ASW training that
includes more frequent (quarterly) assessments, as well as training
exercises with other navies.217
In light
175
Statement of Admiral Michael G. Mullen, Chief of Naval Operations, Before the House
Armed Services Committee, 01 March 2007, pp. 8, 43-45.
CRS-73
ASW Command, based in San Diego, to provide more focus to its ASW efforts, and
since then has taken various steps to enhance its ASW training and exercises. In light
of these actions, the potential question is whether the Navy ASW
training and
exercises are now adequate, or whether they should be expanded further.
Active-Kill Torpedo Defense. If feasible, should Navy plans for acquiring
an active-kill torpedo defense system be accelerated?
Navy surface ships and submarines are equipped with decoy systems for
diverting enemy torpedoes away from their intended targets. Such decoys, however,
might not always work, particularly against wake-homing torpedoes, which can be
difficult to decoy. Under the Navy’s surface ship torpedo defense (SSTD)
development program, the U.S. Navy is developing an “active-kill” torpedo-defense
capability for surface ships and also submarines that would use a small (6.75-inch
diameter) anti-torpedo torpedo (ATT) to physically destroy incoming torpedoes. In
March 2007, Admiral Michael Mullen, the Chief of Naval Operationswho was then the CNO, testified that
the the
Navy’s surface ship torpedo defense (SSTD) program
delivers near term and far term torpedo defense. The planned FY 2008 $16
million R&D [research and development] investment supports ongoing
development of the 6 ¾ inch Common Very Lightweight Torpedo (CVLWT)
which supports both the Anti-Torpedo Torpedo (ATT) and the Compact Rapid
Attack Weapon (CRAW). Also, several capability upgrades to the AN/SLQ-25A
(NIXIE) [torpedo decoy system] are being incorporated to improve both acoustic
and nonacoustic system performance to counter current threat torpedoes. These
enhancements also support their use in the littorals and are scheduled to complete
in FY 2009. The AN/WSQ-11 System uses active and passive acoustic sensors
for an improved torpedo Detection Classification and Localization (DCL)
capability, and a hard kill Anti-Torpedo Torpedo (ATT) to produce an effective,
automated and layered system to counter future torpedo threats. DCL
improvements include lower false alarm rates and better range determination.218176
In light of the modern torpedoes, including wake-homing torpedoes, that are
expected to be carried by modern PLA submarines, a potential question is whether,
if feasible, the current ATT acquisition schedule should be accelerated.
216
Christopher Munsey, “Colombian, Peruvian Subs To Take Part In Exercise,”
NavyTimes.com, April 14, 2005; Mark O. Piggott, “South American Submarines Enhance
U.S. Navy’s Fleet Readiness,” Navy Newsstand, April 14, 2005.
217
Jennifer H. Svan, “Pacific Fleet Commander: Sub Threats Top Priority,” Pacific Stars
and Stripes, October 3, 2005.
218
Statement of Admiral Michael G. Mullen, Chief of Naval Operations, Before the House
Armed Services Committee, 01 March 2007, p. 45.
CRS-84
Mine Warfare. Are current Navy mine warfare plans adequate?Mine Warfare. Are current Navy mine warfare plans adequate?
Countering naval mines is a notoriously time-consuming task that can require
meticulous operations by participating surface ships, submarines, and helicopters.
The Navy’s mine countermeasures (MCM) capabilities have been an area of concern
in Congress and elsewhere in previous years.177 The Navy for the past several years
has been developing several new MCM systems that are scheduled to enter service
176
Statement of Admiral Michael G. Mullen, Chief of Naval Operations, Before the House
Armed Services Committee, 01 March 2007, p. 45.
177
See, for example, General Accounting Office, Navy Acquisitions[:] Improved Littoral
War-Fighting Capabilities Needed, GAO-01-493, May 2001; and General Accounting
Office, Navy Mine Warfare[:] Plans to Improve Countermeasures Capabilities Unclear,
GAO/NSIAD-98-135, June 1998.
CRS-74
over the next few years. Unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) and unmanned
underwater vehicles (UUVs) are playing an increasing role in MCM operations.
The PLA’s interest in modern mines may underscore the importance of the
Navy’s efforts to develop and acquire new mine countermeasures (MCM) systems,
and perhaps raise a question regarding whether they should be expanded or
accelerated. The Navy’s MCM capabilities have been a matter of concern among
members of the congressional defense committees for several years.
Conversely, the PLA Navy’s own reported vulnerability to mines (see section
on PLA Navy limitations and weaknesses) can raise a question regarding the lessfrequently-discussed topic of the U.S. Navy’s offensive mine warfare capability. To
what degree can minelaying complicate PLA plans for winning a conflict, particularly
a short-duration conflict, in the Taiwan Strait area? Do U.S. Navy plans include
sufficient mines and minelaying platforms to fully exploit the PLA Navy’s
vulnerability to mines? The Navy has various mines either in service or under
development.219178
Computer Network Security. Are Navy efforts to ensure computer network
security adequate?
The PLA’s published interest in IW/IO, and concerns that recent attacks on U.S.
computer networks have in some cases originated in China, underscore the
importance of U.S. military computer network security. The Navy in July 2002
established the Naval Network Warfare Command in part to prevent and respond to
attacks on Navy computer networks.220179 A December 2007 article states:
The Navy Cyber Defense Operations Command, located in Norfolk, VA,
has about 170 people running a “24/7 watch,” said James Granger, the
command’s technical director.
They are monitoring Navy-Marine Corps Networks, which includes [sic]
the Navy-Marine Corps Intranet and tactical networks, with 761,000 uers on 300
bases in 16 countries. Those networks receive about 90,000 potentially harmful
probes every hour, and have been affected by 60,000 software worms and viruses
since 2001, according to Network Warfare Command statistics....
What is now the Cyber Defense Command started in about 1995 as a
division of the Fleet Information Warfare Center and became a separate
command as the Navy Computer Instant Response Team in 2003, before
assuming its current identity under Network Warfare Command....
The command’s operations are also closely tied in with the overall Defense
Department network security efforts, directed by the Joint Task Force for Global
219178
Current information on Navy mines and mine development programs is available on the
Internet at [http://www.exwar.org/Htm/4000.htm].
220179
Harold Kennedy, “Navy Command Engages In Info Warfare Campaign,” National
Defense, November 2003. See also Frank Tiboni, “DOD’s ‘Manhattan Project’,” Federal
Computer Week, August 29, 2005.
CRS-8575
Network Operations in Washington, which, in turn, falls under the U.S. Strategic
Command in Omaha, Neb.221180
Another CRS report discusses computer network security at length.222181
EMP Hardening. Are Navy efforts to harden its systems against
electromagnetic pulse (EMP) adequate?
The possibility that the PLA might use nuclear weapons or high-power
microwave (HPM) weapons to generate electromagnetic pulse (EMP) effects against
the electronic systems on U.S. Navy ships and aircraft raises a potential question
regarding the adequacy of the Navy’s efforts to harden its systems against EMP
effects. A 2004 commission studying the EMP issue expressed concerns about the
potential vulnerability of U.S. tactical forces to EMP.223
221182
180
Otto Kreisher, “‘Risk to One Is Risk to All,’” Seapower, December 2007: 28-30.
222181
CRS Report RL32114, Computer Attack and Cyberterrorism: Vulnerabilities and Policy
Issues for Congress, by Clay Wilson.
223
182
2004 EMP commission report. The report of the commission stated on page 1 that “The
high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP) is one of a small
number of threats that has the potential to hold our society seriously at risk and might result
in defeat of our military forces.” The report stated later that
The end of the Cold War relaxed the discipline for achieving EMP
survivability within the Department of Defense, and gave rise to the perception that
an erosion of EMP survivability of military forces was an acceptable risk. EMP
simulation and test facilities have been mothballed or dismantled, and research
concerning EMP phenomena, hardening design, testing, and maintenance has been
substantially decreased. However, the emerging threat environment, characterized
by a wide spectrum of actors that include near-peers, established nuclear powers,
rogue nations, sub-national groups, and terrorist organizations that either now have
access to nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles or may have such access over the
next 15 years have combined to place the risk of EMP attack and adverse
consequences on the US to a level that is not acceptable.
Current policy is to continue to provide EMP protection to strategic [i.e.,
long-range nuclear] forces and their controls; however, the end of the Cold War
has relaxed the discipline for achieving and maintaining that capability within
these forces....
The situation for general-purpose forces (GPF) is more complex.... Our
increasing dependence on advanced electronics systems results in the potential
for an increased EMP vulnerability of our technologically advanced forces, and
if unaddressed makes EMP employment by an adversary an attractive
asymmetric option.
The United States must not permit an EMP attack to defeat its capability to
prevail. The Commission believes it is not practical to protect all of the tactical
forces of the US and its coalition partners from EMP in a regional conflict. A
strategy of replacement and reinforcement will be necessary. However, there is
(continued...)
CRS-86a set of critical capabilities that is essential to tactical regional conflicts that must
CRS-76
The commission’s report was received at a July 22, 2004, hearing before the
House Armed Services Committee. At the hearing, Representative Steve Israel asked
about the role of EMP in exercises simulating operations in the Taiwan Strait:
Representative Steve Israel: [Representative Roscoe] Bartlett and I just
attended an NDU [National Defense University] tabletop [exercise] with respect
to the Straits of the Taiwan just last week. To your knowledge, has there been
any tabletop exercise, has there been any simulation, any war-game that
anticipates an EMP attack, and, if there has not been, do you believe that that
would, in fact, be a useful exercise for NDU, the Pentagon or any other relevant
entity? Dr. Graham, do you want to answer that?
Dr. William R. Graham (Commission Chairman): Thank you. Let me
poll the commission and see if they have any experience with that. General
Lawson?
General Richard L. Lawson, USAF (Ret.) (Commissioner): No, sir.
Graham: Dr. Wood?
Dr. Lowell L. Wood, Jr. (Commissioner): I don’t believe there’s been
any formal exercise, certainly not to my knowledge. There’s been extensive
discussion of what the impact of Chinese EMP laydowns would be, not on
Taiwan, which is, after all, considered by China to be part of its own territory,
but on U.S. forces in the region which might be involved in the active defense of
Taiwan. In particular, the consequences the EMP laydown on U.S. carrier task
forces has been explored, and while, it’s not appropriate to discuss the details in
an open session like this, the assessed consequences of such an attack, a
single-explosion attack, are very somber.
Since that is a circumstance in which the target might be considered a pure
military one in which the loss of life might be relatively small, but the loss of
military capability might be absolutely staggering, it poses a very attractive
option, at least for consideration on the part of the Chinese military.
223
(...continued)
a set of critical capabilities that is essential to tactical regional conflicts that must
I would also remark that Chinese nuclear explosive workers at their very
cloistered research center in northwestern China very recently published an
be available to these reinforcements. This set includes satellite navigation
systems, satellite and airborne intelligence and targeting systems, an adequate
communications infrastructure, and missile defense.
The current capability to field a tactical force for regional conflict is
inadequate in light of this requirement. Even though it has been US policy to
create EMP-hardened tactical systems, the strategy for achieving this has been
to use the DoD acquisition process. This has provided many equipment
components that meet criteria for durability in an EMP environment, but this
does not result in confidence that fielded forces, as a system, can reliably
withstand EMP attack. Adherence to the equipment acquisition policy also has
been spotty, and the huge challenge of organizing and fielding an EMP-durable
tactical force has been a disincentive to applying the rigor and discipline needed
to do so. (Pages 47-48.)
CRS-87
I would also remark that Chinese nuclear explosive workers at their very
cloistered research center in northwestern China very recently published an77
authoritative digest and technical commentary on EMP in English, in a Chinese
publication. It is very difficult to understand what the purpose of publishing a
lengthy, authoritative article in English in a Chinese publication would be, if it
was not to convey a very pointed message. This came not from military workers.
It came from the people who would be fielding the weapon that would conduct
the attack.
Graham: Dr. Pry on our staff has made a survey of foreign writings on
EMP, and he noted that while U.S. exercises have not to our knowledge played
that scenario, Chinese military writings have discussed that scenario. So it’s
certainly something they have thought of and it is within their mind. I have
observed generally over the last 40 years that there’s a tendency in the U.S.
military not to introduce nuclear weapons in general and EMP in particular into
exercise scenarios or game scenarios because it tends to end the game, and that’s
not a good sign. I think it would be a very interesting subject for the NDU group
to take up and see and force them not to end the game. Time will not stop if such
an event happens. Let them understand what the consequences will be.224183
Later in the hearing, Representative Roscoe Bartlett returned to the topic of the
potential effects of EMP on Navy ships:
Representative Bartlett: If China were to detonate a weapon high over
our carrier task force, can we note in this [open] session what would the effects
on the carrier task force be?
Graham: Mr. Bartlett, several years ago, the Navy dismantled the one
simulator it had for exposing ships directly [to EMP]. It was the Empress
simulator located in the Chesapeake Bay. So I don’t believe any direct
experimental work has been done for quite some time.
However, the general character of modern naval forces follows the other
trends we’ve described, which is an increasing dependence upon sophisticated
electronics for its functionality, and, therefore, I believe there’s substantial
reason to be concerned.
[Would] Any other commissioners [care to comment]?
Representative Bartlett: Dr. Wood?
Wood: In open session, sir, I don’t believe it’s appropriate to go much
further than the comment that I made to [Representative] Israel that the
assessments that are made of such attacks and their impacts are very somber.
The Navy generally believes — that portion of the Navy that’s at all
cognizant of these matters — that because they operate in an extremely
radar-intensive environment, [since] they have a great deal of electromagnetic
gear on board, some of which radiates pulses — radar pulses, for instance —
because they can operate in that type of environment, that they surely must be
224183
Source: Transcript of hearing.
CRS-8878
EMP robust. These free-floating beliefs on the part of some Navy officers are
not — repeat not — well grounded technically.225184
Legislative Activity Forfor FY2008
FY2008 Defense Authorization Bill Act
(H.R. 1585/S. 1547/H.R. 4986/P.L. 110-181)
House. Section 1244 of the House-reported version of the FY2008 defense
authorization bill (H.R. 1585) stated:
SEC. 1244. SENSE OF CONGRESS CONCERNING THE STRATEGIC
MILITARY CAPABILITIES AND INTENTIONS OF THE PEOPLE’S
REPUBLIC OF CHINA.
It is the sense of Congress that —
(1) United States military war-fighting capabilities are potentially threatened by
the strategic military capabilities and intentions of the People’s Republic of
China, as demonstrated by —
(A) the October 2006 undetected broach of a Chinese SONG-class diesel-electric
submarine in close proximity of the USS Kitty Hawk in international waters; and
(B) the January 2007 test of a direct ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon, posing
a potential threat to United States military assets in space;
(2) it is in the national security interests of the United States to make every effort
to understand China’s strategic military capabilities and intentions; and
(3) as part of such an effort, the Secretary of Defense should expand efforts to
develop an accurate assessment of China’s strategic military modernization,
particularly with regard to its sea- and space-based strategic capabilities.
Senate. The Senate-passed version of the FY2008 defense authorization bill
(S. 1547; S.Rept. 110-77 of June 5, 2007) did not contain a provision analogous to
Section 1244 of the House-passed version of H.R. 1585 (see above).
Conference. The conference report (H.Rept. 110-477 of December 6, 2007)
on H.R. 1585 did not contain a provision analogous to the Sec. 1244 of the Housepassed version of H.R. 1585. The conference report stated:
The conferees note China’s continued investment in strategic military
capabilities that could be used to support power projection and access denial
operations beyond the Asia Pacific region, and the lack of transparency
surrounding the strategic military capabilities and intentions relating to China’s
military modernization. The Pentagon’s 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review
184
Ibid.
CRS-79
Report (QDR) found that China is at a strategic crossroads and that, “of the
major and emerging powers, China has the greatest potential to compete
225
Ibid.
CRS-89
militarily with the United States.” The conferees note that during the last year,
China demonstrated such potential, including the October 2006 broach of a
Chinese SONG-class diesel-electric submarine in close proximity to the USS
Kitty Hawk aircraft carrier in international waters and the January 2007 test of
a direct ascent anti-satellite missile against a Chinese weather satellite in
low-earth orbit.
The conferees encourage the Secretary of Defense to expand efforts to
develop an accurate assessment and understanding of China’s strategic military
modernization and strategic intentions, particularly with regard to its sea- and
space-based strategic capabilities. (Page 1031)
CRS-90
Appendix. Additional Details on China’s Naval
Modernization Efforts226
This appendix presents additional details and commentary on several of the
elements of China’s military modernization discussed in the Background section of
this report.
Theater-Range Ballistic Missiles (TBMs). Regarding the potential for using
TBMs against moving U.S. Navy ships at sea, ONI states that “One of the newest
innovations in TBM weapons developments involves the use of ballistic missiles to
target ships at sea. This is assessed as being very difficult because it involves much
more than just a missile.”227 ONI continues
H.R. 1585 was vetoed by the President on December 28, 2008. A new bill, H.R.
4986, was passed with changes that took into account the President’s objection to
certain parts of H.R. 1585. The President’s objection to certain parts of H.R. 1585
did not relate to the passage quoted above. H.R. 4986 was signed into law as P.L.
110-181 of January 28, 2008. Except for the changes made by Congress to take into
account the President’s objection to certain parts of H.R. 1585, H.Rept. 110-477 in
effect serves as the conference report for H.R. 4986.
CRS-80
Appendix A. Examples of Expressions of Concern
This appendix presents examples of expressions of concern about China’s
military modernization, and of its potential implications for U.S. Navy requirements.
A May 2005 press report stated that:
China is one of the central issues, along with terrorism and weapons of mass
destruction, in the U.S. military’s 2005 Quadrennial Defense Review, a
congressionally directed study of military plans.... [W]hen the [then-]chief of
naval operations, Adm. Vern Clark, held a classified briefing for congressional
defense committees earlier this month about threats, his focus was “mainly” on
China, about which he is “gravely concerned,” recalled John W. Warner, the
Virginia Republican who chairs the Senate Armed Services Committee....
China has come up repeatedly in congressional debate over the size of the Navy.
The 288-ship fleet of today is half the size it was three decades ago. “You never
want to broadcast to the world that something’s insufficient,” Warner says, “but
clearly China poses a challenge to the sizing of the U.S. Navy.”185
In an address delivered on February 7, 2007, Secretary of the Navy Donald
Winter stated:
Naval forces must be ready, above all, to conduct major combat operations
should the need arise.
We cannot ignore events and trends that reinforce that belief. A recent
White Paper prepared by the Chinese military outlined a three-step strategy for
modernizing its defense, to include its blue-water ambitions. The third step in
their strategy states as a strategic goal “building modernized armed forces and
being capable of winning modern, net-centric wars by the mid-21st century.”
This document implicitly suggests that China hopes to be in a position to
successfully challenge the United States, a challenge that would certainly entail
blue-water operations.
Public declarations such as this statement and many others serve as
reminders that we must be prepared for a world that does not always follow our
preferences. Of course, we hope that China will choose a peaceful path. But
hope is not a strategy, so we must be prepared.
Those who might be tempted to dismiss or discount the need to be prepared
for major combat operations ought to keep in mind that their goodwill and
optimism towards totalitarian regimes may not be reciprocated.186
185
John M. Donnelly, “China On Course To Be Pentagon’s Next Worry,” CQ Weekly, May
2, 2005, p. 1126.
186
Donald C. Winter, “Navy Transformation: A Stable, Long-Term View,” Heritage
Lectures, No. 1004, March 19, 2007, [remarks] delivered February 7, 2007, p. 2. (Published
by The Heritage Foundation)
CRS-81
A press article reporting on an April 3, 2007, address by Admiral Michael
Mullen, then the Chief of Naval Operations and now the Chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff, stated that in addition to other topics,
The admiral also commented on the threats that drive military spending
needs. For example, he noted, China is building a new, modernized navy.
“The Chinese are shifting from land-centric” forces as their main focus “to
air-centric and naval-centric” buildups. China is acquiring cutting-edge aircraft,
new destroyers, four new classes of submarines, and hundreds of radar-guided
missiles. “Those investments very much have our attention,” Mullen said.187
Another short news article, reporting on comments made by Mullen at a
breakfast meeting in early May 2007, stated that:
In response to a question about the need for large Navy vessels, Mullen
[told] attendees that while he doesn’t expect to see big sea battles, the service has
to be mindful of China’s naval build up. “China is very actively investing in their
navy, building more ships each year. Their building rate is much higher than ours
right now,” he says. “We have to be mindful of that. Not to be mindful of that
would be irresponsible.”188
At a December 13, 2007, hearing before the House Armed Services Committee,
Admiral Gary Roughead, the current Chief of Naval Operations, acknowledged that
China’s rate of submarine production is a concern189 and stated later that “my
judgment is that it is a navy that is modernizing at a rate that is exceeding what our
expectations have been.”190
At a March 6, 2007, hearing before the House Armed Services Committee,
Admiral Roughead was asked by one Member, “can you tell us what attention is
being paid to the China fleet and what we’re doing to counter-balance that?”
Admiral Roughead replied:
Yes, sir. Having been the Pacific fleet commander and having served in the
Pacific for several years, watching the evolution of China’s navy has been of
great professional interest to me and then obviously in my positions out there, of
great import to the Navy. There is no question that China is building a navy that
187
Dave Ahearn, “Mullen Says Military Faces Financial Crisis, But Nation Can Afford
Arms,” Defense Daily, April 5, 2007. The passage as originally published was in the form
of five one-sentence paragraphs and has been condensed here into two paragraphs for ease
of reading.
188
“Interesting Times,” Defense Daily, May 7, 2007.
189
At the hearing, Representative Hunter stated to Admiral Roughead: “With respect to the
increased [Chinese rate of submarine] production, in terms of them outstripping us by
three-to-one on submarine production, and your own figures show that they are going to
eclipse us in submarine numbers in 2011 — maybe little earlier, maybe a little later,
depending on which analysis you go with: Clearly, that should be a concern to you.”
Admiral Roughead replied: “Well, it is.” (Source: Transcript of the hearing.)
190
Source: Transcript of hearing.
CRS-82
is increasing in sophistication and capacity. It is a navy that is focusing more on
being able to influence events in the region and then being able to move on to the
global stage.
As I watch what they are buying, what they are building, that’s one
component of watching the PLA Navy. But the other is their leadership and the
expertise and competence of the leadership. I’ve had the opportunity to meet with
several of the PLA Navy leaders. And it is clear to me that they have a path that
they see for their navy.
It is a path that does not necessarily end with them being a threat. But it is
a navy that, I believe, will have greater influence in the Pacific and then also
moving into the Indian Ocean regions.
The key for us is to be able to engage with that leadership to gauge the
intent, not only of the PLA Navy, but the PLA and to have a relationship that
allows us to see where they are taking their navy and how competent that navy
is. As you know, we have shifted force structure into the Pacific, carriers and
submarines. But I would submit that that’s not simply because of a rising PLA
Navy.
It is because that is part of the world, that and the Indian Ocean region and the
Arabian Gulf, where our prosperity hinges on. And that is the reason why I
believe a rebalancing of the fleet into those areas where we can respond, where
we can be present is so important. And it is from that response and presence that
I am committed to the 313-ship Navy because of our need to be able to cover the
many requirements that are there, not simply at the high end of naval capability,
but also to be able to work with some of the other countries.191
191
Source: Transcript of hearing. The question was asked by Representative Mike McIntyre.
CRS-83
Appendix B. Additional Details on China’s Naval
Modernization Efforts192
This appendix presents additional details and commentary on several of the
elements of China’s military modernization discussed in the “Background” section
of this report.
Theater-Range Ballistic Missiles (TBMs). Regarding the potential for using
TBMs against moving U.S. Navy ships at sea, ONI stated in 2004 that “one of the
newest innovations in TBM weapons developments involves the use of ballistic
missiles to target ships at sea. This is assessed as being very difficult because it
involves much more than just a missile.”193 ONI continued:
The use of ballistic missiles against ships at sea has been discussed for
years. Chinese writings state China intends to develop the capability to attack
ships, including carrier strike groups, in the waters around Taiwan using
conventional theater ballistic missiles (TBMs) as part of a combined-arms
campaign. The current conventional TBM force in China consists of CSS-6 and
CSS-7 short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) deployed in large numbers. The
current TBM force would be modified by changing some of the current missiles’
ballistic reentry vehicles (RVs) to maneuvering reentry vehicles (MaRVs) with
radar or IR seekers to provide the accuracy needed to attack ships at sea. The
TBMs with MaRVs would have good defense penetration capabilities because
of their high reentry speed and maneuverability. Their lethality could be
increased, especially with terminally guided submunitions.
In order to attack a ship or a carrier battle group with TBMs, the target must
be tracked, and its position, direction, and speed determined. This information
would be relayed in near real time to the missile launchers. China may be
planning ultimately to use over-the-horizon (OTH) radar, satellites, and
unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to monitor the target’s position.
Reconnaissance assets would be used to detect the ship or carrier strike group
before it entered into the range of Chinese TBMs, facilitating early preparation
for the engagement, and refining the target’s position. Target information would
be relayed through communication satellites or other channels to a command
center, and then to the missile launchers. TBMs with MaRVs would then be
launched at the target’s projected position. The missiles would fly their
preplanned trajectories until onboard seekers could acquire the ship and guide
the missiles to impact.228
226
192
Unless otherwise indicated, shipbuilding program information in this section is taken
from Jane’s Fighting Ships 2006-20072007-2008, and previous editions. Other sources of information
on these shipbuilding programs may disagree regarding projected ship commissioning dates
or other details, but sources present similar overall pictures regarding PLA Navy
shipbuilding.
227
2004 ONI WMC, p. 21. On Page
193
U.S. Department of the Navy, Worldwide Maritime Challenges 2004, Washington,
prepared by the Office of Naval Intelligence. (Hereafter cited as 2004 ONI WMC.) On Page
3 (Overview), ONI notes, without reference to any
specific country, that “antiship ballistic
missiles could be fired at our ships at sea.”
228
2004 ONI WMC, p. 22. Page 20 states: “Maneuvering reentry vehicles serve two
purposes: one to provide an unpredictable target to complicate missile defense efforts and
(continued...)
CRS-91
Another observer states
CRS-84
preplanned trajectories until onboard seekers could acquire the ship and guide
the missiles to impact.194
Another observer stated in 2005:
The PLA’s historic penchant for secrecy and surprise, when combined with
known programs to develop highly advanced technologies that will lead to new
and advanced weapons, leads to the conclusion that the PLA is seeking [to] field
new weapon systems that could shock an adversary and accelerate their defeat.
In the mid-1990s former leader Jiang Zemin re-popularized an ancient Chinese
term for such weapons, “Shashaojian,” translated most frequently as “Assassin’s
Mace,” or “silver bullet” weapons.
One potential Shashoujian is identified by the [DOD’s 2005 report on
China military power]: a maneuvering ballistic missile design to target U.S. naval
forces. In 1996 a Chinese technician revealed that a “terminal guidance system”
that would confer very high accuracy was being developed for the DF-21
[intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM]. Such a system could employ a
radar similar to the defunct U.S. Pershing-2 MRBM or could employ off-board
sensors with rapid data-links to the missile tied to satellite-navigation systems.
Nevertheless, should such missiles be realized they will pose a considerable
threat as the U.S. Navy is not yet ready to deploy adequate missile defenses.229195
A separate observer statesstated in 2005:
Land-based conventional tipped ballistic missiles with maneuverable
(MarV) warheads that can hit ships at sea ... would be a Chinese “assassin’s
mace” sort of capability — something impossible to deal with today, and very
difficult under any circumstances if one is forced to defend by shooting down
ballistic missiles. The capability is dependent on Beijing’s ability to put together
the appropriate space-based surveillance, command, and targeting architecture
necessary to make this work.230196
One more observer statesstated in 2005:
There is yet another exceedingly important chapter being written in the
[PLA] ballistic-missile saga. China is trying to move rapidly in developing
ballistic missiles that could hit ships at sea at MRBM [medium-range ballistic
missile] ranges — in other words, to threaten carriers beyond the range at which
they could engage Chinese forces or strike China. Among its other advantages
for China, this method of attack avoids altogether the daunting prospect of
having to cope with the U.S. Navy submarine force — as anti-submarine warfare
is a big Chinese weakness. Along with these efforts to develop ballistic missiles
to hit ships, they are, of course, working diligently to perfect the means to locate
and target our carrier strike groups (CSGs). In that regard, an imperfect or
rudimentary (fishing boats with satellite phones) means of location and targeting
might be employed even earlier than the delay of several more years likely
228
(...continued)
the other, potentially, to adjust missile flight path to achieve greater accuracy.”
229
230
Fisher 7/27/05 testimony, p. 6.
194
2004 ONI WMC, p. 22. Page 20 states: “Maneuvering reentry vehicles serve two
purposes: one to provide an unpredictable target to complicate missile defense efforts and
the other, potentially, to adjust missile flight path to achieve greater accuracy.”
195
Prepared statement of Richard D. Fisher, Jr., for a July 27, 2005, hearing on China grand
strategy and military modernization before the House Armed Services Committee, p. 6.
196
Presentation entitled “Beijing Eye View of Strategic Landscale” by Mike McDevitt at a
June 20, 2005, conference on the future of the U.S. Navy held in Washington, DC, by the
American Enterprise Institute. Quote taken from McDevitt’s notes for the presentation,
which he provided to CRS.
CRS-9285
is a big Chinese weakness. Along with these efforts to develop ballistic missiles
to hit ships, they are, of course, working diligently to perfect the means to locate
and target our carrier strike groups (CSGs). In that regard, an imperfect or
rudimentary (fishing boats with satellite phones) means of location and targeting
might be employed even earlier than the delay of several more years likely
needed to perfect more reliable and consistent targeting of ships. Chinese missile
specialists are writing openly and convincingly of MaRV’d ballistic missiles
(missiles with maneuverable reentry vehicles) that maneuver both to defeat
defenses and to follow the commands of seekers that spot the target ships. There
seems little doubt that our naval forces will face this threat long before the
Taiwan issue is resolved.231
Land-Attack Cruise Missile (LACMs). Regarding LACMs, ONI states:
Land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs) are available for sale from many
countries, and are marketed at arms shows around the world. Land-attack cruise
missiles are becoming a significant adjunct to theater ballistic missiles in strike
and deterrent roles. The number of countries manufacturing and purchasing
LACMs continues to grow. Some of the systems in development are derivatives
of antiship missiles, and some are dedicated designs, and a few weaponized
UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles] complete the inventory....
Israel, China, Germany, and South Africa are among the countries with LACM
development programs.232
Another observer states197
Land-Attack Cruise Missile (LACMs). Regarding LACMs, one observer
stated in 2006:
Taiwanese civilian and military officials contend that in 2005 the PLA has
started deployment of its long-awaited new land attack cruise missiles
(LACMs).32
Asian sources contend that two Chinese companies are making
LACMs; one for
the Second Artillery missile forces, and one for PLA Navy and
PLA Airforce
platforms, most likely based on the new 300+ km range YJ-62
anti-ship missile.33
It has been well reported that China has sought to develop
modern LACMs since
the 1970s and has sought technology from Russia, Israel,
and has obtained at
least six Russian Novator Kh-55 LACMs via the Ukraine,
and has obtained parts
of U.S. RGM/UGM-109 Tomahawk LACMs via Iraq,
Afghanistan and very
likely, Pakistan. When these LACMs are married to new
Russian-assisted EO
and Radar satellites, French assisted communication
satellite, access to U.S.,
Russian and European navigation satellites signals, and
then carried by Russian
assisted nuclear submarines or future Russian-made
bombers, then the PLA will
have its first limited non-nuclear global strike
capability.34 Such a synergy could
emerge by 2010 or shortly thereafter. This
might not equal the U.S. all-weather
intimate moving-target hitting capability,
but China may be able to use LACMs
for political-military influence much as the
U.S. does today.233
Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles (ASCMs). Regarding the SS-N-27s carried by the
eight newly delivered Kilo-class submarines, ONI states:
Russia continues to develop supersonic ASCMs. The most interesting is the
3M-54E design which has a cruise vehicle that ejects a rocket-propelled terminal
sprint vehicle approximately 10 nautical miles from its target. The sprint vehicle
231
McVadon 9/15/05 testimony, pp. 4-5.
232
2004 ONI WMC, pp. 25, 26.
233
Testimony of Richard D. Fisher, Jr., for 3/16/06 USCC hearing, p. 9.
CRS-93
accelerates to speeds as high as Mach 3 and has the potential to perform very
high-g defensive maneuvers.234
Another observer states that “the very dangerous and lethal SS-N-27Bs [are]
said by experts to be part of the best family of ASCMs in the world....”235
U.S. does today.198
Land-Based Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAMs). Regarding SAM systems, DOD
statesstated in 2007:
In the next few years, China will receive its first battalion of Russian-made
S-300PMU-2 surface-to-air missile systems. With an advertised intercept range
of 200 km, the S-300PMU-2 provides increased lethality against tactical ballistic
missiles and more effective electronic countermeasures. China also is developing
the indigenous HQ-9 air defense missile system, a phased array radar-based SAM
with a 150 km range.236199
Another observer states:stated in 2006:
197
Prepared Statement of Eric McVadon for a September 15, 2005, hearing before the
U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, pp. 4-5.
198
Prepared statement of Richard D. Fisher, Jr., for a March 16, 2006, hearing before the
U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission hearing, p. 9.
199
2007 DOD CMP, p. 4
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One area where Russian technology in particular is producing a new and
dangerous PLA capability is that of modern air defenses. The PLA Air Force is
on its way to purchasing up to 14 to 20 Battalions of Russian
S-300/PMU-1/PMU-2 surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), which could mean the
purchase of 700 to 1,000 of these deadly missiles. The S-300 family is very
difficult to jam and can only be evaded with some assurance by stealthy F-22A
or B-2 aircraft. The range of the S-300PMU-2 allows it to target aircraft that
operate over Taiwan, thus denying the Taiwan Strait as an air defense buffer
zone for the Taiwan Air Force. Jane’s reports that China may be funding the
development of the even longer-range S-400 missile, while Asian sources report
that China may be co-producing the deadly short range TOR-M1,44 which can
shoot down precision-guided cruise missiles and bombs.237200
Land-Based Aircraft. In addition to the land-based aircraft discussed earlier
in this report, China’s front-line naval aircraft include, among other models, 110 J-8
Finback fighters (with another 450 or more in the air force); 70 Q-5 (Fantan-A)
fighters (a derivative of the J-6 design); 100 J-7 (MiG-21-like) fighters; about 30 H6D/H-6X (Tu-16 Badger-type) maritime bombers/reconnaissance aircraft; 3 KJ-2000
AWACS aircraft based on the A-50 Mainstay/Il-76 airframe; perhaps 30 older H-5
(Il-28 Beagle-type) maritime strike aircraft; 4 SH-5 amphibious ASW/multipurpose
airplanes,; and 3 Y-8X maritime patrol aircraft. One source states that “Xian Aircraft
has also begun test flying a new variant of the BADGER, designated H-6K.
Redesigned to accommodate Russian DA-30 turbo fans, the aircraft has been seen
with six pylons for air-launched anti-ship missiles. If tests go well, the fuel economy
234
2004 ONI WMC, p. 23.
235
McVadon 9/15/05 testimony, p. 5.
236
2007 DOD CMP, p. 4
237
Testimony of Richard D. Fisher, Jr., for 3/16/06 USCC hearing, p. 11.
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of the DA-30 and greater reliability will likely result in the replacement of all H-6D
aircraft.”238201
Regarding land-based aircraft, DOD statesstated in 2007:
China has more than 700 combat aircraft based within an un-refueled
operational range of Taiwan and the airfi eld capacity to expand that number
significantly. Many aircraft in the PLA force structure are upgrades of older
models (e.g., re-engined B-6 bombers for extended ranges); however, newer
aircraft make up a growing percentage of the inventory.
— The PLA Air Force (PLAAF) is deploying the F-10 multi-role fighter to
operational units. The F-10, a fourth generation aircraft, will be China’s premier
fighter in the coming decades.
— China is now producing the multi-role Su-27SMK/FLANKER (F-11A)
fighter under a licensed co-production agreement with Russia following an initial
production run of Su-27SKs (F-11). China is employing increasing numbers of
the multi-role Su-30MKK/FLANKER fighter-bomber and its naval variant, the
Su-30MK2.
200
Prepared statement of Richard D. Fisher, Jr., for a March 16, 2006, hearing before the
U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission hearing, p. 11.
201
Keith Jacobs, “PLA-Navy Update,” Naval Forces, No. 1, 2007: 30.
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— Chinese aircraft are armed with an increasingly sophisticated array of
air-to-air and air-to-surface weapons, satellite and laser-guided precision
munitions, and cruise missiles....
— Improvements to the FB-7 fighter program will enable this older aircraft to
perform nighttime maritime strike operations and use improved weapons such as
the Kh-31P (AS-17) anti-radiation missile and KAB-500 laser-guided
munitions.239202
DOD also statesstated in 2007 that:
PLA air defense has shifted from point defense of key military, industrial,
and political targets to a new Joint Anti-Air Raid Campaign based on a modern,
integrated air defense system and offensive and defensive counter-air operations.
These operations extend beyond the defense of Chinese airspace to include
strikes against an adversary’s bases (including aircraft carriers) and logistics to
degrade the adversary’s ability to conduct air operations.
The air defense component of anti-access/area-denial includes SAMs such
as the SA-10, SA-20, HQ-9, HQ-15, and extended-range C2 suites such as the
S-300PMU2. Beijing will also use Russian-built and domestic fourth-generation
aircraft (e.g., Su-27 and Su-30 FLANKER variants, and the indigenous F-10).
The PLA Navy would employ recently acquired Russian Su-30MK2 fighters,
armed with AS-17/Kh-31A anti-ship missiles. The acquisition of refueling
aircraft, including the Russian IL-78/MIDAS and the indigenously developed
B-6U refueling aircraft, will extend operational ranges for PLAAF and PLA
Navy strike aircraft armed with precision munitions, thereby increasing the threat
to surface and air forces distant from China’s coast. Additionally, acquisition of
238
Keith Jacobs, “PLA-Navy Update,” Naval Forces, No. 1, 2007: 30.
239
2007 DOD CMP, p. 4.
CRS-95
UAVs and UCAVs, including the Israeli HARPY, expands China’s options for
long-range reconnaissance and strike.240
ONI states:
China operates a force of 1950s vintage B-6D Badger dedicated naval strike
bombers. Today, these aircraft are armed with the C601, an air-launched
derivative of the Styx ASCM, but a program to arm them with the modern
C802K is underway....
China and Russia also are working on new tactical aircraft dedicated to the
antiship mission. China’s FB-7 Flounder has been in development since the
1970s; its production limited by engine difficulties. The C801K-armed FB-7
entered service with the Chinese Navy, and integration of the longer-range
C802K on the FB-7 is underway.241
Another observer states
UAVs and UCAVs, including the Israeli HARPY, expands China’s options for
long-range reconnaissance and strike.203
Another observer stated in 2007:
Although the modernization of the PLA Air Force has taken a backseat to
nuclear, space, and naval development, the PLAAF is a much more modern
fighting force in 2007 than it was in 1997. It now boasts about 450 advanced
fighter aircraft, including about 300 Russian-designed fourth-generation Su-27
Flankers and Chinese Jian-11s and 76 Su-30MKK fighter-bombers, which
display substantial ground attack capabilities and are armed with Russia’s most
advanced air-to-air missiles.
In January 2007, the PLAAF unveiled its new Jian-10 multirole fighter jet,
which is based on the Israeli Lavi airframe, itself an evolutionary offshoot of the
F-16. As of March 2007, the PLAAF had reportedly deployed 60 Jian-10s, with
the total production run estimated at around 250. Although its forward-wing
canards are a novelty among Chinese-designed fighters, the Jian-10’s most
remarkable characteristic is its midair refueling module. The PLAAF has been
practicing in-flight refueling since at least 2005 with both Su-27 and older Jian-8
fighters. Following Peace Mission 2005, a joint Chinese — Russian military
202
2007 DOD CMP, p. 4.
203
2007 DOD CMP, p. 18.
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exercise on China’s Shandong peninsula, China contracted for six to 10
Illyushin-78s configured as aerial refueling platforms and 30 Illyushin-76 cargo
aircraft configured for paratroop drops.
The increasing size of China’s fourth-generation fighter fleet, which is
heavily armed with the latest Russian and Chinese air-to-air missiles and
equipped with fire control systems and refueling modules, gives the PLAAF a
technological and numerical edge in the Taiwan Strait.242
Submarines. Regarding China’s submarine force, one observer states that by
2010,
240
2007 DOD CMP, p. 18.
241
2004 ONI WMC, p. 27. Fisher 7/27/05 testimony, pp. 3-4, 9-10.
242
John J. Tkacik, Jr., China’s Quest for a Superpower Military, Heritage Foundation
Backgrounder No. 2036, May 17, 2007, pp. 13-14.
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the PLA Navy could take delivery of over 20 new domestic SONG A and
YUAN-class conventional submarines, 12 Russian KILO-877/636/636M
conventional submarines, and five or more new indigenous Type 093 nuclear
attack submarines (SSNs) — the third Type 093 is now under construction. In
addition, the PLAN could retain up to 20 older Type 035 MING-class
conventional [attack submarines] and about 4 older Type 091 HAN-class SSNs.
This raises the prospect by 2010 of a Chinese fleet of over 50 modern-tomoderate [sic] attack submarines capable of engaging Taiwan, U.S. and Japanese
naval forces.243
Another observer states that:
the PLA Navy now has the capability to make the antisubmarine warfare (ASW)
mission very difficult for U.S. forces. With a total of more than 50 operational
submarines, and with a substantial number of them new and quiet, China, quite
simply, can put to sea more submarines than the U.S. Navy can locate and
counter. Its older Ming and Romeo submarines are not only still lethal if ignored
but also serve to disperse and dilute the efforts of the ASW forces. In other
words, some, or even many, of the already large and diverse, but still rapidly
growing, fleet of very capable Shang SSNs, and Kilo, Song, and Yuan SSs can
reasonably expect to remain undetected as they seek to interdict the U.S. carrier
strike groups. If the “shooting has started,” eventually U.S. ASW forces could
take a big toll against the Chinese submarine force, but the delay in sanitizing the
area before the entry of carrier strike groups is what the Chinese are counting on
as adequate delay to present the world with the aforementioned fait accompli
with respect to Taiwan.244
Another observer states:
Evidence suggests that China is seeking to become a first-class submarine
power. While the PLAN modernization shows impressive breadth with major
new purchases of naval aircraft and surface combatants, submarines appear to be
the centerpiece of China’s strategic reorientation toward the sea. The May 2002
contract for eight additional Kilos, the likely continuation of the Song program,
and nuclear force modernization, taken together with the evident new priority on
training, technological research and doctrinal development all suggest that
Beijing recognizes the value of submarines as a potent, asymmetric answer to
United States maritime superiority. The recent ascendance of a submariner,
Adm. Zhang Dingfa, to the position of commanding officer of the PLAN
underlines these tendencies. Further investments in diesel submarines,
particularly when enhanced by air independent propulsion, will afford Beijing
increasing near-term leverage in the East Asian littoral, while methodical nuclear
modernization signifies a long-term commitment to global power projection. As
one Chinese strategist recently observed, “The scale [of recent purchases]
243
Fisher 7/27/05 testimony, p. 11. On page 4, Fisher similarly states “It can be estimated
that by 2010 the PLA Navy could have 50 to 60 nuclear and new conventional attack
submarines....”
244
McVadon 9/15/05 testimony, p. 5.
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indicates that in the coming years, China will build an offshore defense system
with submarines as the key point.”245
The paragraphs below discuss China’s submarine modernization effort in more
detail on a class-by-class basis.
Jin-class (Type 094) SSBN. China is building a new class of SSBN known
as the Jin class or Type 094. The first is expected to become operational as a
submarine in mid-2007 and as an SSBN in 2008-2009, depending on progress with
the new JL-2 (submarine-launched ballistic) missile.246 Additional units are
expected, perhaps at two-year intervals. A total of four is expected.247 The Jin-class
design may be derived from the Shang-class (Type 093) SSN design discussed below.
ONI states that China “wishes to develop a credible, survivable, sea-based deterrent
with the capability to reach the United States” and that the Jin-class design “benefits
from substantial Russian technical assistance.”248
The Jin-class SSBN is expected to be armed with 12 JL-2 nuclear-armed
submarine-launched ballistic missiles, also known as JL-2s. DOD estimates that
these missiles will enter service between 2007 and 2010, and that they will have a
range of 8,000+ kilometers (about 4,320+ nautical miles).249 Such a range could
permit Jin-class SSBNs to attack targets in Hawaii and Alaska from protected
bastions close to China, to attack targets in many of the 48 contiguous states (as well
as Hawaii and Alaska) from mid-ocean locations east of Hawaii, and to attack targets
in all 50 states from mid-ocean locations north or south of Hawaii.250 A March 2007
news article states:
China’s military is engaged in a major buildup of submarines that includes
five new strategic nuclear-missile boats and several advanced nuclear-powered
attack submarines, according to the Office of Naval Intelligence.
245
Statement of Lyle J. Goldstein and William Murray as printed in 2/6/04 USCC hearing,
pp. 155-156.
246
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, p. 116. See also p. 31 (Executive Overview).
247
One news article, citing information from the Office of Naval Intelligence, states that a
total of 5 are expected. (Bill Gertz, “China Expands Sub Fleet,” Washington Times, March
2, 2007.)
248
2004 ONI WMC, p. 37.
249
2007 DOD CMP, pp. 3, 19 (Figure 3), and 42 (Figure 14).
250
A map published by DOD (2007 DOD CMP, p. 19 [Figure 3]) shows JL-2s with a range
of 8,000 kilometers as capable of attacking targets in the continental United States that are
north and west of a line running from central or southern California to northern Minnesota.
For a missile with a range of 8,000 kilometers, the launching point that results in this targetcoverage line is an inland location at or near the extreme northern tip of China — a location
northeast of Mongolia that is roughly 700 statute miles inland from the sea, with the
approximate geographic coordinates of 53oN, 125oE. This location also appears to be the
assumed launching point for some of the land-based ballistic missiles shown in Figure 3.
The JL-2 appears to have been assigned this inland launching point to simplify the
presentation of the target-coverage arcs shown in the figure.
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The new nuclear-powered missile submarines (SSBNs), identified as Type
094s, will be outfitted with new 5,000-mile range JL-2 missiles that “will provide
China with a modern and robust sea-based nuclear deterrent force,” the ONI
stated in report made up of written answers to questions on the Chinese
submarine buildup.
The ONI report was first disclosed to Sea Power magazine, and a copy was
obtained by The Washington Times. It was the first time the Pentagon has
identified the number of new Chinese strategic submarines under construction.
The five new missile submarines will “provide more redundancy and
capacity for a near-continuous at-sea SSBN presence,” the ONI said, which noted
that sea trials for some of the submarines are under way and the first
deployments could begin as early as next year.251
Another observer states204
Naval Mines. A detailed open-source discussion of China’s naval mining
capabilities appeared in the Winter 2007 edition of Undersea Warfare, a publication
of the U.S. Navy’s submarine community. Because such discussions are few in
number, it is excerpted here at length. The except runs for about five pages. The
authors state that, compared to the China’s submarine modernization effort,
Less well understood by naval analysts and planners is the People’s Liberation
Army (PLA) Navy’s dynamic mine warfare component. It is important to
understand this emerging capability, because sea mines appear to be a big
component of Beijing’s Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) strategy....
The major conclusions of [a larger study that surveyed nearly one thousand
Chinese language articles related to mine warfare] are that China’s naval mine
inventory likely contains some of the world’s most lethal systems and that
Beijing may be on the cutting edge of mine warfare (MIW) technology and
concept development. The study elucidates a preliminary outline of a Chinese
MIW doctrine that emphasizes speed, psychology, obfuscation, a mix of old and
new technologies, and a variety of deployment methods that target very specific
U.S. Navy platforms and doctrines....
It seems that the PLA Navy sees mine warfare as a feasible “poor man’s ASW”
— providing a stopgap measure until Beijing has put a more robust ASW posture
into place. Chinese strategists note that “submarines are acutely vulnerable to
mines, because passive sonar is not likely to be effective in locating mines, and
because submarines have very limited organic205 mine counter measures (MCM)
capabilities.”...
Lacking a substantial modern naval history, Chinese naval analysts are
scrupulously analyzing foreign naval history for lessons to facilitate their
development, and have duly noted the potential for mine warfare to “baffle the
enemy, and thus achieve exceptional combat results.”... Perhaps not surprisingly,
Chinese naval strategists have a keen understanding of Soviet naval doctrine,
appreciating in particular how mine warfare was revived during the late Cold
War in part for the purpose of countering American nuclear powered fast-attack
submarines (SSNs). Indeed, one Chinese survey of ASW explains how new
mines emerged in the 1980s “that are more appropriate to the requirements of
modern anti-submarine warfare.” A detailed Chinese analysis of Russian rocket
mines concludes: “…these weapons will attack SSNs too rapidly for
204
John J. Tkacik, Jr., China’s Quest for a Superpower Military, Heritage Foundation
Backgrounder No. 2036, May 17, 2007, pp. 13-14.
205
“Organic” here mines MCM capabilities that are installed on the submarine itself and are
therefore intrinsic (i.e., organic) to the submarine.
CRS-89
countermeasures to engage, and are also rated to be highly effective against the
mono-hull construction of U.S. submarines.” Chinese strategists have also very
closely analyzed the mine warfare aspects of the Persian Gulf War during
1990-91, noting that although two U.S. Navy (USN) ships were severely
damaged, Iraq’s MIW campaign had numerous flaws, including an
“inappropriate reliance on moored mines [and a failure to execute] long range
offensive mine warfare operations.” It is now conventional wisdom in the PLA
Navy that “relative to other combat mission areas, [the U.S. Navy’s] mine
warfare capabilities are extremely weak.”
PLA Navy strategists envision a wide array of platforms (including
non-military vessels) for delivery of sea mines for operational deployment.
Having systematically analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of these
mine-laying platforms, they appear to have concluded that submarine delivery of
mines is optimal for offensive, and especially long-range offensive, mining
missions....
China reportedly possesses between 50,000 and 100,000 mines, consisting
of “over 30 varieties of contact, magnetic, acoustic, water pressure and mixed
reaction sea mines, remote control sea mines, rocket-rising and mobile mines….”
People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) submarines are said to use the Chen-1,
-2, -3, and -6 type influence mines, “appropriate for use in the sea area
immediately outside of harbor mouths;” the T-5 mobile mine, “appropriate for
port channels and sea areas immediately outside a port;” and the Soviet-produced
PMK-1 and the Chinese-developed Mao-5 rocket rising mines, “appropriate for
waters up to 15 kilometers outside a port.”
China’s remotely controlled mines, such as the EM53 bottom influence
mine, are thought to be deactivated by coded acoustic signals to allow the safe
passage of friendly vessels, and again activated to prevent the transit of those of
an enemy....
China likely also possesses an inventory of submarine launched mobile
mines (SLMMs). Called “self-navigating mines” (zihang shuilei) in Chinese,
these mines are simply torpedo bodies that carry a mine payload to waters
inaccessible by other means. Apparently derived from Yu-class torpedoes,
China’s SLMMs would travel along a user-determined course for a set period of
time. When SLMMs arrived at their programmed destination (e.g. in the middle
of a harbor), the torpedo’s engine would shut off, and the weapon would sink to
the bottom where the warhead would be controlled by a fuse similar to that of
any other bottom mine.
Significantly, China began to develop rocket rising mines in 1981 and
produced its first prototype in 1989. Thus, Beijing has been working on this
technology for well over two decades. Today, China reportedly offers two types
of rising mines for export. Rising mine systems are moored, but have as their
floating payload a torpedo or explosive-tipped rocket that is released when the
mine system detects a suitable passing vessel. The torpedo or rocket rises from
deep depth to home in on and destroy its intended target, typically a submarine.
As one source notes, “The so-called ‘directional rocket rising sea mine’ is a type
of high technology sea mine with accurate control and guidance and initiative
attack capacity.… Attack speed [e.g., against a target submarine] can reach
approximately 80 meters per second.” China’s EM52, a guided rocket propelled
destructive charge, reportedly has an operating depth of at least 200 meters.
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Russian rising torpedo mines such as the PMK-2 are said to be capable of being
laid in waters as deep as 2,000 meters.
Recent focus on rocket rising mine development indicates for China “a new
understanding of the art of sea mine warfare [whereby] it is essential to
implement effective sea mine warfare over a vast range of deep sea areas [and to]
develop and equip rocket sea mines capable of … mobile attack.” The PLA Navy
is therefore augmenting its existing inventory of 1970s-80s mines designed to
defend littoral areas, most of which “can only be deployed in shallow seas,” and
only a fraction of which can be deployed in medium depths. In particular,
China’s navy has “started to outfit vertical rocket rising sea mines, and is
energetically developing directional rocket sea mines, rocket rising guided
missile sea mines and rocket assisted propulsion sea mines.”
An article in China’s leading naval publication refers to Russia as “the
world’s ‘sea mine kingdom.’” China has reportedly imported Russian mines,
technology, and even engineers to bolster its indigenous MIW programs. In this
domain of warfare, Russia’s wide-ranging assistance has been a natural fit for
PLA priorities. While the true scope of this collaboration remains unknown,
Chinese analysts have clearly developed a sophisticated understanding of
Russian mine development and doctrine. They note that Soviet interest in sea
mines actually waned under Khrushchev, but was subsequently reinvigorated in
the late 1960s, as it was realized that for conventional war scenarios, sea mines
would play an ever greater role. One Chinese article emphasizes that Russia “has
continuously paid great attention to the development of high speed undersea
rocket techniques.”
Ongoing Chinese research foci suggest, however, that Beijing is not content
to rely solely on Russian mines and technology. China appears, for instance, to
be keenly interested in developing and enhancing the effectiveness of its
indigenous deep water rising mines. Scientists at China’s Naval Aviation
Engineering and Dalian Naval academies have developed methods to predict
rocket propelled mine attack probability. A variety of additional studies have
analyzed launch platform stability, underwater rocket propulsion, and launch
trajectory. Additional naval mine research examines target tracking, blast
maximization, and damage to ships. Researchers at one of China’s top technical
universities have analyzed the extent to which targets can react to and evade deep
water rising mines, and suggest using the passive signature of target vessels to
aim the mines.
Submarines have attracted particular attention as a deployment platform for
rising mines. An article by Dalian Naval Academy researchers suggests
significant PLAN interest in SLMMs. A researcher at Institute 705 advocates
acquisition of an encapsulated torpedo mine, similar to the Cold War-era U.S.
Captor mine, which could be laid in very deep waters to attack passing
submarines. Mine belts — external conformal containers designed to carry and
release large numbers of mines — can be fitted to submarines in order to bolster
their otherwise limited payloads. One article emphasizes that the Soviet navy
developed a “mine laying module capable of carrying 50 sea mines on either side
of the submarine” and states, “For the past few years related PLA experts have
expressed pronounced interest in submarine mine belts…. The PLA very
probably has already developed submarine mine belts.” Another source notes,
however, that “submarines built after World War II rarely carry mines
externally.”
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Disturbingly, there is some discussion of a theoretical nature in Chinese
naval analyses concerning arming sea mines with tactical nuclear weapons. One
such analysis, in the context of discussing Russian MIW, notes that nuclear sea
mines could sink adversary nuclear submarines from a range of 2000 meters....
A second article finds that a nuclear payload is one logical method to increase
the destructive power of sea mines, while a third analysis argues that nuclear
MIW is especially promising for future deep-water ASW operations. It
concludes: “At this time, various countries are actively researching this
extremely powerful nuclear-armed sea mine.” An article in the July 2006 issue
of Modern Navy (Dangdai Haijun), published by the PLA Navy itself, in the
context of discussing potential future PLA Navy use of sea mines, also notes the
potential combat value of nuclear-armed sea mines. While there is no direct
evidence of the existence of such naval tactical nuclear weapons programs in
China, these articles do perhaps suggest the need to closely monitor any Chinese
efforts in this direction.
Recent Chinese MIW exercises have involved air, surface and even civilian
platforms extensively. Of particular interest in this forum, however, is that
China’s navy also considers mine laying from submarines to be “the most basic
requirement of submarine warfare.” Mine-laying has become an integral
component of recently enhanced Chinese submarine force training in which
crews strive to conduct a wider variety of increasingly challenging exercises
attuned to local environmental, hydrographic, and weather conditions. Such
exercises are documented in some detail in the PLA Navy’s official newspaper,
People’s Navy (Renmin Haijun). In particular, China’s navy views submarine
delivery of mines as a critical aspect of future blockade operations. By 2002,
mine-laying had become one of the most common PLAN submarine combat
methods. Accordingly, PLAN crews train to handle submarines loaded with large
quantities of mines. Drill variants include “‘hiding and laying mines in deep
water.’” Broad and deep mine-laying against port targets is also emphasized.
Chinese naval officers recognize the challenges inherent in “penetrating the
enemy’s anti-submarine forces and laying mines behind enemy lines.” According
to one PLA Navy captain, “Secretly penetrating the combined mobile formation
deployed by the enemy’s anti-submarine forces is a prerequisite to fulfilling the
mine-laying task.” There is some evidence that China may rely on centralized
control of its submarines when conducting offensive mining missions. In carrying
out offensive mine blockades, notes one Chinese analysis, “…if there is a
shore-based submarine command post to handle command and guidance of the
submarine for its entire course, it will not only ensure its concealment but also
improve the strike effectiveness of the mines… that are laid.”
The Chinese Navy is working hard to improve the quality of its submarine
officers and sailors, including their proficiency in MIW....
What would PLA Navy MIW operations look like in any potential conflict
scenario? It is possible to imagine the extensive deployment of Chinese sea
mines in conflicts arising out of hostilities in the South China Sea, or a possible
conflict involving the Korean Peninsula. But the most operative scenario for
Chinese defense analysts now and in the foreseeable future involves the delicate
future status of Taiwan.
The bathymetry of the waters proximate to Taiwan immediately reveals that
the Taiwan Strait itself, as well as waters to the immediate north and south
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(adjacent to the island’s largest ports), are shallow enough to create an
environment for the use of all types of mines. Although Taiwan’s eastern coast
has deeper waters, the authors nevertheless believe that by relying on a
combination method of deployment (air, surface, submarine and civilian) that a
major Chinese MIW campaign could efficiently blockade Taiwan, especially if
working in concert with the PLA Navy’s submarine force. Chinese analysts,
moreover, assess that Taiwan’s MCM is inadequate to this challenge and that
efforts by Taiwan to deploy its own mines could be dealt with by the PLA.
The above scenario represents the minimum that could be expected from
offensive PLA MIW operations in a Taiwan scenario. One Chinese study on
ASW suggests that mines are best employed against adversary submarines by
laying “mines in the egress routes proximate to the enemy’s bases… thus limiting
the ability of enemy submarines to get out to the ocean.” Indeed, it is conceivable
that the PLA Navy could attempt to lay mines outside foreign bases. Such ranges
are well within the endurance limits of PLA Navy submarines. When considering
long distance offensive MIW operations, it is perhaps noteworthy that Chinese
naval analysts have evaluated the “success” of German submarine mining efforts
along the American coast during WWII. The waters around Japan’s southern
Ryukyus are also susceptible to Chinese offensive mining operations. Another
article suggests: “On the basis of a great quantity of research, the PLA believes
that U.S. nuclear submarines are very quiet, [are] difficult to… counterattack…
[and] must [be] restrained….” According to this analysis, this concern has been
a major impetus for Chinese research on mobile mines and the priority would be
laying “[mobile] sea mines in each channel of the Pacific [Ocean’s] First Island
Chain, thereby forming together [a] blockade line [and] preventing U.S. nuclear
submarines from entering China’s nearby sea areas.”...
Although China’s naval development program remains rather opaque, it is clear
mine warfare is a dynamic component of that program. The sources discussed
above further suggest mine warfare may be a central component of China’s
evolving ASW doctrine. This has a variety of important implications. First and
foremost, a strong consciousness with respect to the Chinese mine challenge
should be developed. Training and doctrine must adjust accordingly. Programs
related to submarine mine detection and neutralization deserve additional
impetus. Second, the Navy should be actively involved in a mine warfare
deterrence strategy. Nations should understand that the widespread use of mines
in any maritime conflict would be extremely costly as these weapons could be
deployed effectively against themselves. Finally, U.S. Navy planning must
consider that the PLA Navy is preparing a strategy to counter American SSNs,
such that deployment in a conflict scenario would entail new risks.206
In another article, these same observers (plus an additional fourth author) state:
While the overall impression [produced by a review of Chinese military
literature] is that of [a] Chinese [self-assessment of] ASW [antisubmarine
warfare] weakness, there is one notable exception. Significant prioritization
appears to be given to the use of sea mines for the antisubmarine mission, as if
to produce a “poor man’s ASW capability.” One discussion explains, “Because
206
Andrew Erickson, Lyle Goldstein, and William Murray, “China’s Undersea Sentries,”
Undersea Warfare, Winter 2007, available online at:
[http://www.navy.mil/navydata/cno/n87/usw/issue_33/china.html]
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of a tremendous change in the maritime strategic environment, since the early
1990s the PLA has made mobile ASW sea mines a focal point of weapons
development.” The analysis continues, “[China] is energetically undertaking the
research mission [of] using [mobile ASW sea mines] against U.S. nuclear
submarines.” The same discussion also hints at a possible PLA Navy ASW role:
“The major mission of self-guided sea mines is to isolate American nuclear
submarines outside the First Island Chain.”207
Two of these same authors stated in a presentation in 2004 that China has
a large inventory of mines. And we see a tremendous interest in some of the
most modern deadly mines going. These deep water rising mines [on the
projection screen] can be purchased from Russia. They have tremendous ability
to mine deeper waters where we would prefer to operate. So what we would
consider to have been a haven [for U.S. Navy ships] may no longer be a haven.208
ONI stated in 2004 that:
China is developing and exporting numerous advanced mines of all types. One
example is the wireless remote controlled EM57, a mine that offers many tactical
options. For example, the mine can be turned off and on remotely to prolong its
life, or it can be activated and deactivated to allow safe passage for friendly
vessels.209
DOD stated in 2003 that the PLA’s mines
include bottom and moored influence mines, mobile mines, remotely controlled
mines, command-detonated mines, and propelled-warhead mines. Use of
propelled-warhead mines in deep waters has the potential to deny enemy naval
formations large operational areas.210
DOD stated in 2002 that China “likely has enough mine warfare assets to lay a
good defensive and a modest offensive minefield using a wide variety of launch
platforms.”211
DOD stated in 2000 that:
The PLAN’s mine stockpiles include vintage Russian moored-contact and bottom
influence mines, as well as an assortment of domestically built mines. China
207
Gabriel Collins, Andrew Erickson, Lyle Goldstein, and William Murray, “Chinese
Evaluations of the U.S. Navy Submarine Force,” Naval College War Review, Winter 2008:
78-79.
208
Statement of Lyle J. Goldstein and William Murray as printed in Hearing On Military
Modernization and Cross-Strait Balance, Hearing Before the U.S.-China Economic and
Security Review Commission, February 6, 2004. Washington, U.S. Govt. Print. Off., 2004,
p. 133. See also p. 152.
209
2004 ONI WMC, p. 19.
210
2003 DOD CMP, p. 27.
211
2002 DOD CMP, p. 23.
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currently produces the EM11 bottom-influence mine; the EM31 moored mine;
the EM32 moored influence mine; the EM52 rocket-propelled rising mine; and,
the EM-53 ship-laid bottom influence mine which is remotely controlled by a
shore station. China is believed to have available acoustically activated remote
control technology for its EM53. This technology probably could be used with
other Chinese ship-laid mines including the EM52. Application of this
technology could allow entire mines to be laid in advance of hostilities in a
dormant position and activated or deactivated when required. China reportedly
has completed development of a mobile mine and may be producing improved
variants of Russian bottom mines and moored-influence mines. Over the next
decade, China likely will attempt to acquire advanced propelled-warhead mines,
as well as submarine-launched mobile bottom mines.212
Submarines. The paragraphs below discuss China’s submarine modernization
effort in more detail on a class-by-class basis.
Jin-class (Type 094) SSBN. China is building a new class of SSBN known
as the Jin class or Type 094. The first is expected to become operational as a
submarine in mid-2007 and as an SSBN in 2008-2009, depending on progress with
the new JL-2 (submarine-launched ballistic) missile.213 Additional units are
expected, perhaps at two-year intervals. A total of four or five is expected.214 The
Jin-class design may be derived from the Shang-class (Type 093) SSN design
discussed below.
Another observer stated in 2007:
The future mission of the missile submarines appears to be regional because
the range of the missiles and operational constraints facing the submarines limit
the targets that can be held at risk. The range of the Julang-2 is estimated by the
US intelligence community at more than 8,000 km (4,970+ miles), which brings
Hawaii and Alaska (but not the continental United States) within reach from
Chinese territorial waters. Assuming they made it out of port past lurking U.S.
attack submarines, the Chinese missile submarines would have to sail through the
narrow straight between South Korea and Japan into the Sea of Japan for its
Julang-2 missiles to be able to strike the Seattle area.
The Bo Hai Bay has been suggested as a possible deployment area for
China’s missile submarines because it would offer more protection against
hostile attack submarines. From the shallow bay, the Julang-2 missiles could be
used to target Guam and Alaska, India, Russia, and — at the limit of its range —
Hawaii.
There are also rumors - one apparently even with a photo — that China may
plan to homeport some of its ballistic missile submarines at the new submarine
base under construction at Hainan Island in the South China Sea. The
infrastructure includes what appears to be a waterway entrance to an
underground facility similar to the underground facility at Jianggezhuang
212
2000 DOD CMP, section on subsurface warfare.
213
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, p. 116. See also p. 31 (Executive Overview).
214
DOD stated in 2008 that up to five might be built. (2008 DOD CMP, p. 25.)
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submarine base near Qingdao where the Xia is based. Hainan Island has access
to deeper waters than Jianggezhuang, but is also less protected. From Hainan
Island the Julang-2 would be within range of Guam, India and most of Russia,
but not Hawaii.
The U.S. Navy has assessed that China might build as many as five
Jin-class submarines “in order to provide more redundancy and capacity for a
near-continuous at-sea SSBN presence,” but is yet unclear whether China plans
to develop a near-continuous sea-based deterrent or just a surge capability for
deployment in a crisis. If all current ballistic missile boats became fully
operational, China could deploy a maximum of 36 warheads at sea, although at
least one of the boats would probably be in overhaul at any given time. Whatever
the future mission, absent any deterrent patrols so far, the Chinese military will
251
Bill Gertz, “China Expands Sub Fleet,” Washington Times, March 2, 2007.
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first have to learn how to operate the missile submarines in a way that would
matter.252215
Shang-class (Type 093) SSN. China is building a new class of SSN, called
the Shang (or Type 093) class. The boats are viewed as replacements for China’s
five aging Han-class (Type 091) SSNs, which entered service between 1974 and
1990.253216 (The first Han-class boat was reportedly decommissioned in 2003, and
observers expect the other four will be decommissioned as Shang-class boats enter
service.254217) DOD statesstated in 2007 that the first Shang-class SSN began sea trials in
2005.255
218 The first was expected to be commissioned in 2006 and the second in 2007; the
the actual in-service dates for the two boats are expected to be 2007 and 2008.
Construction of a third (possibly to a modified design) may have begun, but has not
yet been confirmed. A total of five boats is generally expected, but one source states
that “[the] Pentagon estimates 3-4 [units] in commission by 2010, with requirements
likely to run to eight to ten submarines (providing mostly escort for ‘Jin’ [class
SSBNs] and the ‘Xia’ No. 406 SSBN.)”256219
Observers believe the Shang-class SSNs will likely represent a substantial
improvement over the reportedly fairly noisy Han class SSNs. The Shang class
reportedly was designed in conjunction with Russian experts and is derived from the
Soviet Victor III-class SSN design that was first deployed by the Soviet Union
around 1978. The Victor III was the first in a series of quieter Soviet SSN designs
that, by the mid-1980s, led to substantial concern among U.S. Navy officials that the
Soviet Union was closing the U.S. lead in SSN technology and thereby creating what
Navy officials described an antisubmarine warfare (ASW) “crisis” for the U.S.
Navy.257
ONI states that the Shang-class “is intended primarily for antisurface warfare
at greater ranges from the Chinese coast than the current diesel force. China looks at
SSNs as a primary weapon against aircraft carrier battle groups and their associated
252215
Hans M. Kristensen, “Chinese Submarine Patrols Rebound in 2007, but Remain
Limited,” Federation of American Scientists Strategic Security Blog, available online at
[http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2008/01/chinese_submarine_patrols_rebo.php].
253
216
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, p. 31 (Executive Overview).
254217
Another source paints a somewhat different picture of plans for the Han class, stating:
“[The] Type 091/09 (Han) [class boat with the hull number] #403 underwent modernization
and overhaul during 2003-04, including [an] 8m hull extension possibly to accommodate [a]
new towed passive array, [a] new bow sonar, plus [the] ability to fire Ying-ji-82 ASuW
[anti-surface warfare] torpedoes. Others are expected to be modernized in similar fashion.
#401 is non-operational, [and] maybe [it will be] next scheduled for re-build and
modernisation beginning 2007.” (Keith Jacobs, “PLA-Navy Update,” Naval Forces, No.
1, 2007:24.)
255218
2007 DOD CMP, p. 3.
256
Keith Jacobs, “PLA-Navy Update,” Naval Forces, No. 1, 2007: 20.
257
See, for example, Ronald O’Rourke, “Maintaining the Edge in US ASW,” Navy
International, July/August 1988, pp. 348-354.
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logistics support.”258 Observers expect the Shang-class boats to be armed with a
modern ASCM and also with a LACM broadly similar to the U.S. Tomahawk landattack cruise missile. One observer states:
At first, [China’s LACMs] will be launched by Second Artillery units, but soon
after, they may also be used by PLA Air Force H-6 bombers and by the Navy’s
new Type 093 nuclear attack submarines. When used by the latter, the PLA will
have its first platform capable of limited but politically useful non-nuclear power
projection on a global scale....
Once there is a build-up of Type 093s it should be expected that the PLA Navy
may undertake patrols near the U.S. in order to draw U.S. SSNs back to
defensive patrols.259
219
Keith Jacobs, “PLA-Navy Update,” Naval Forces, No. 1, 2007: 20.
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that, by the mid-1980s, led to substantial concern among U.S. Navy officials that the
Soviet Union was closing the U.S. lead in SSN technology and thereby creating what
Navy officials described an antisubmarine warfare (ASW) “crisis” for the U.S.
Navy.220
Regarding the Jin- and Shang-class programs, one set of observers statestated in
2007:
Whereas the Yuan’s debut allegedly surprised Western analysts, the
emergence of China’s [Type] 093 SSN and [Type] 094 SSBN has been
anticipated for some time. Nevertheless, these programs remain shrouded in
mystery, and there is little consensus regarding their operational and strategic
significance. In the broadest terms, it can be said that a successful [Type] 093
program will significantly enlarge the scope of Chinese submarine operations,
perhaps ultimately serving as the cornerstone of a genuine blue-water navy. The
[Type] 094 could take the survivability of China’s nuclear deterrent to a new
level, potentially enabling more aggressive posturing by Beijing in a crisis.
Moreover, these platforms are entering the PLA Navy (PLAN) at a time when
reductions are projected to occur in the U.S. Navy submarine force; that fact was
duly noted by a senior PLAN strategist recently in one of China’s premier naval
journals.260221
These observers also statestated in 2007 that:
Chinese sources universally recognize that noise reduction is one of the greatest
challenges in building an effective nuclear submarine. PRC scientists have long
been conducting research concerning the fundamental sources of propeller noise.
For instance, experts at China Ship Scientific Research Center developed a
relatively advanced guide-vane propeller by the late 1990s. This, and the fact that
China already has advanced seven-blade propellers with cruciform vortex
dissipaters on its indigenous Song-class and imported Kilo-class diesel
submarines, suggests that the [Type] 093 and [Type] 094 will have significantly
improved propellers. A researcher in Qingdao’s 4808 Factory also demonstrates
Chinese attention to the need to use sound-isolation couplings to prevent
transmission of vibrations to the ocean from major fresh-water circulating pumps
in the steam cycle. Advanced composite materials are credited with capability to
absorb vibrations and sound.
258
2005 ONI WMC, p. 14.
259
Fisher 7/27/05 testimony, pp. 9, 11.
260
Andrew S. Erickson and Lyle J. Goldstein, “China’s Future Submarine Force: Insights
From Chinese Writings,” Naval War College Review, Winter 2007: 55-56.
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One Chinese researcher states that the [Type] 093 is not as quiet as the U.S.
Seawolf class or Virginia class but is on a par with the improved Los Angeles
class. Another analyst estimates that the [Type] 093’s noise level has been
reduced to that of the Russian Akula-class submarine at 110 decibels. He states
that the [Type] 094’s acoustic signature has been reduced to 120 decibels.
According to this report, this is definitely not equal to that of the Ohio class, but
220
See, for example, Ronald O’Rourke, “Maintaining the Edge in US ASW,” Navy
International, July/August 1988, pp. 348-354.
221
Andrew S. Erickson and Lyle J. Goldstein, “China’s Future Submarine Force: Insights
From Chinese Writings,” Naval War College Review, Winter 2007: 55-56.
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is on a par with the Los Angeles. There is no additional information given to
evaluate concerning the origins or comparability of these “data.”261222
Kilo-class SS. China ordered four Kilo-class SSs from Russia in 1993; the
ships entered service in 1995-1999. The first two were of the less capable (but still
fairly capable) Project 877 variant, which Russia has exported to several countries;
the other two were of the more capable Project 636 variant that Russia had previously
reserved for its own use.
China in 2002 ordered eight additional Kilos from Russia, reportedly all of the
Project 636 design. The eight boats were delivered in 2004-2006. ONI states that
the delivery of these eight boats “will provide the Chinese Navy with a significant
qualitative increase in warfighting capability,”262 while another observer states that
the Kilo-class boats are “Among the most worrisome of China’s foreign
acquisitions....”263
The eight Kilos The eight Kilos
are believed to be armed with wire-guided and wake-homing
torpedoes, and with the
Russian-made SS-N-27 Sizzler ASCM, also known as the
Novator Alfa Klub 3M-54E3M54E — a highly capable ASCM that might as difficult to
shoot down, or perhaps
even more difficult to shoot down, than the SS-N-22 Sunburn
ASCM on China’s
Russian-made Sovremenny-class destroyers (see discussion below
on surface
combatants). The four Kilos commissioned in 1995-1999 are expected
to be refitted
in Russia; upgrades are expected tocould include installation of the SS-N-27
ASCM. One source states
stated in 2007 that the boats might also be fitted at some point with the
Russian-made
Shkval supercavitating, high-speed (200-knot) torpedo.264223
Yuan-class (Type 041) SS. China is building a new class of SS called the
Yuan (or Type 041) class. The first Yuan-class boat, whose appearance reportedly
came as a surprise to western observers,265224 was launched (i.e., put into the water for
the final stage of construction) in 2004. Observers expect the first Yuan-class boat
261
Andrew S. Erickson and Lyle J. Goldstein, “China’s Future Submarine Force: Insights
From Chinese Writings,” Naval War College Review, Winter 2007: 67.
262
2004 ONI WMC, p. 12.
263
Tkacik 7/27/05 testimony, p. 8. See also Fisher 7/27/05 testimony, pp. 11-12.
264to enter service in 2006 and the second to enter service in 2009. One source states
that in addition to the fist two units in the class, “two further units are currently
building at Wuhan [Shipbuilding Industry Co.]. By 2010, boats No. 9 & 10 will
likely commission. Twenty of [the] class are expected to be built and [the] Jiangnan
Shipyard (Shanghai) is expected to be integrated into [the] programme during 2006
with completion of [the] last ‘Song-II’ class.”225
Some observers believe the Yuan class is a variant of the Song (Type 039) class
design and consequently refer to the Yuan class as the Type 039A. One observer
stated in 2007:
222
Andrew S. Erickson and Lyle J. Goldstein, “China’s Future Submarine Force: Insights
From Chinese Writings,” Naval War College Review, Winter 2007: 67.
223
In discussing the weapons to be carried by China’s Kilos, this source states that “China
in late-2005 also firmed contracts” for Shkval torpedoes, and that “The Russians viewed it
as a ‘last ditch’ weapon for use against either ships or submarines.” (Keith Jacobs, “PLANavy Update,” Naval Forces, No. 1, 2007: 21.)
265224
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2005-2006, for example, states: “It is fair to say that the
intelligence community was caught completely unawares by the emergence of the Yuan
class....” Jane’s Fighting Ships 2005-2006, p. 30 (Executive Overview). See also Bill
Gertz, “Chinese Produce New Type Of Sub,” Washington Times, July 16, 2004: 1.
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to enter service in 2006 and the second to enter service in 2009. One source states
that in addition to the fist two units in the class, “Two further units are currently
building at Wuhan [Shipbuilding Industry Co.]. By 2010, boats No. 9 & 10 will
likely commission. Twenty of [the] class are expected to be built and [the] Jiangnan
Shipyard (Shanghai) is expected to be integrated into [the] programme during 2006
with completion of [the] last ‘Song-II’ class.”266
Some observers believe the Yuan class may incorporate technology from
Russia’s most recent SS design, known as the Lada or Amur class, including possibly
an air-independent propulsion (AIP) system.267 One observer says the Yuan class
strongly resembles both the Russian Amur 1650-class and French Agosta-class SS
designs.268 Another observer states:
225
Keith Jacobs, “PLA-Navy Update,” Naval Forces, No. 1, 2007: 20.
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There are few details at present but the design appears to exhibit some features
of the Song class, although it appears to be shorter and broader, and possibly also
of the Russian Kilo class. The design of the fin [i.e., the “conning tower”] is
similar to that of the former while a distinctive ‘hump’ on top of a teardrop
shaped hull is characteristic of the latter. It is possible therefore that the boat is
of double-hulled construction. Fitted with a seven-bladed propeller. It is not
known whether an AIP system has been incorporated.269
Another set of observers stated in 2005:
Evidence of China’s advances in submarine design and construction
emerged in July 2004, when Western media reports suddenly revealed China’s
production of the new Yuan class of conventional submarine. While much is still
unknown about the Yuan, it appears to possess attributes of both the Song- and
Kilo-class vessels, suggesting that China may have optimized features from each
vessel class to meet its specific requirements for underwater warfare.270226
Song-class (Type 039/039G) SS. China in recent years also built a
relatively new SS design called the Song (or Type 039/039G) class. The first Songclass boat entered service in 1999, and a total of 13 were in service by 2006. Further
ships in the class are not expected.
The first boat reportedly experienced problems,
resulting in design changes that
were incorporated into subsequent (Type 039G)
boats. Some observers believe the
Song-class design may have benefitted from PLA Navy experience with the Kilo
266
Keith Jacobs, “PLA-Navy Update,” Naval Forces, No. 1, 2007: 20.
267
An AIP system, such as a fuel cell system or a closed-cycle diesel engine, extends the
stationary or low-speed submerged endurance of a non-nuclear-powered submarine from a
few days to perhaps two or three weeks. AIP technology does not extend the high-speed
submerged endurance of a non-nuclear-powered submarine, which remains limited, due to
battery capacity, to about 1 to 3 hours of high-speed operations.
268
Fisher 7/27/05 testimony, p. 11.
269
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, p. 118.
270
2005 RAND report, pp. 148-149.
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class. One report states that one Song-class boat has been equipped with an AIP
system.271
Navy experience with the Kilo class. One set of observers statesstated in 2005:
The design and production rates of China’s new Song-class diesel
submarine represent a significant advance over its predecessor, the Ming-class
submarine. The Song class has a hydrodynamically sleek (teardrop) profile,
possesses new cylindrical environmental sensors, and relies on German engines
for propulsion. Most significantly, the Song is much quieter because it is fitted
with an asymmetrical seven-blade skew propeller, and the Song uses anechoic
rubber dampening tiles on the hull and shock absorbency for the engine to reduce
its acoustic signature. The Song may also be able to launch cruise missiles when
submerged, another design advance for China’s conventional submarines. Seven
Song-class vessels have reportedly been launched already, and additional ones
have entered serial production at the Wuchang Shipyard in Wuhan. The rate of
Song production has clearly increased in recent years.272227
Older Ming-class (Type 035) and Romeo-class (Type 033) SSs.
China in 2007 also had about 19 older Ming (Type 035) class SSs and about 8 evenolder remaining Romeo (Type 033) class SSs. The Romeos are expected to be
decommissioned soon.
The first Ming-class boat entered service in 1971 and the 20th was launched in
2002. Production may have ended in favor of Song- and Yuan-class production. In
April 2003, a malfunction aboard one of the boats (hull number 361) killed its 70man crew. Observers believe they were killed by carbon monoxide or chlorine
poisoning. The ship was repaired and returned to service in 2004.
China’s Romeo-class boats entered service between the early 1960s and the late
1980s. A total of 84 were built. Of the 8eight still in service as of 2007, one is a modified
modified boat that has been used as a cruise missile test ship. With the possible
exception of
this missile test ship, the remaining Romeos are expected to be decommissioned
decommissioned soon.
If China decides that Ming-class boats have continued value as minelayers or
as bait or decoy submarines that can be used to draw out enemy submarines (such as
U.S. SSNs), it may elect to keep some of these older submarines in service even as
new submarines enter service.
226
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, p. 118.
227
2005 RAND report, p. 148.
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Aircraft Carriers. Regarding China’s activities for developing an aircraft
carrier, one observer stated in May 2007 that:
For over a year, the PLAN has been more or less open about China’s
eventual deployment of an aircraft carrier battle group. Except for the carrier,
China has all the elements of a carrier battle group in place, according to
Lieutenant General Wang Zhiyuan of the PLA General Armaments Department.
China will finish constructing its first aircraft carrier by 2010, according to an
unnamed lieutenant general (probably General Wang again), but its first
271
“CHINA — Submarine Force Moving Forward,” Submarine Review, April 2005: 106.
272
2005 RAND report, p. 148.
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operational carrier will likely be the Varyag, the former Soviet carrier bought
from Ukraine.
China’s once-secret naval aviation program appears to be underway at full
steam. At its center is the massive 67,000-ton former Ukrainian aircraft carrier,
which the Chinese government extracted from the Black Sea in 2001 after
considerable costs in both treasure and political capital with Turkey. In March
2002, the Varyag finally completed its 15,200-mile journey to its new home port
of Dalian, where it was immediately placed under heavy security at the PLAN
dry docks.
China has reportedly negotiated a contract for 48 Sukhoi-33 jet fighters, the
carrier-based version of the Su-27, and is now preparing the Varyag’s flight deck
for flight operations. Reports in the PRC media indicate that China will also
configure its new Jian-10 fighter for carrier operations.
The PLAN Air Force (PLANAF) schedule apparently envisions developing
a carrier air wing by the time China launches its own aircraft carrier, despite
official Beijing’s continuing protestations that while “China already is capable
of building an aircraft carrier, a final decision on construction has not yet been
made.”273228
Another observer statesstated in 2006:
The year 2005 marked a turning point in China’s willingness to continue
to deny or obfuscate its ambitions to build aircraft carriers. Last May it moved
the old Russian uncompleted aircraft carrier hulk the Varyag, that it purchased
and moved to Dalian harbor in 2002, from dockside into a drydock. It then
emerged in early August painted in PLA Navy grey, and the most recent
Internet-source photos show that the carrier deck is receiving new multiple
coatings. China’s ruse was that the Varyag would be turned into a casino and
Chinese officials have repeatedly denied they were developing carriers. But on
March 10, Hong Kong’s Wen Wei Po quoted General Wang Zhiyuan, a Deputy
Director of the Science and Technology Committee of the General Armaments
Department, that in “three to five years,” “The Chinese army will conduct
research and build an aircraft carrier and develop our own aircraft carrier fleet.”
He went on to add that the escort and support ships for this carrier group are
either being built or have already been built. These would likely include the new
Luyang 1, Luyang 2 and Luzhou class air defense destroyers launched from 2003
to 2005, new Type 093 nuclear powered attack submarines, and new Fuchi class
underway replenishment ships.
228
John J. Tkacik, Jr., China’s Quest for a Superpower Military, Heritage Foundation
Backgrounder No. 2036, May 17, 2007, pp. 12-13.
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If General Wang is to be believed, then the carrier Varyag, now undergoing
what appears to be substantial refurbishment, will be used for some kind of
military mission. These could include the refinement of China’s anti-aircraft
carrier doctrine and tactics, training and development of a new carrier air wing,
and future aerial and amphibious support combat missions. In August 2005
Russian sources interviewed at the Moscow Airshow offered confirmation of
China’s carrier plans in that two Russian companies offered that China was
interested in two types of future carrier combat aircraft, the Sukhoi Su-33 and the
273
John J. Tkacik, Jr., China’s Quest for a Superpower Military, Heritage Foundation
Backgrounder No. 2036, May 17, 2007, pp. 12-13.
CRS-105
Chengdu J-10 modified with a new Russian engine thrust vector to enable slower
carrier landing speeds. The Russians also used the Moscow Airshow to market
the twin-seat Su-33UB, but modified with thrust vector engines. It is quite likely
that all three will be upgraded with new more powerful Russian Al-31 engines,
have new active-phased array radar, and carry a range of active guided and
helmet display sighted air-to-air missiles and precision ground attack missiles.
As such both could offer some performance parameters that equal or even exceed
that of the U.S. Boeing F/A-18E/F, the main U.S. carrier combat aircraft.
Internet sources also indicate that China is developing a carrier-sized AWACS
aircraft that could also be developed into antisubmarine and cargo support
variants. While the U.S. Navy benefits from its over 70 years of constant
practice and employment of effective carrier aviation, it is nonetheless a major
shock that China’s carrier fleet could commence with combat capabilities that
could neutralize those of the U.S. Navy in some scenarios.274229
Another set of observers statesstated in 2005 that China’s increased shipbuilding
capacity:
has direct implications for China’s ability to build an aircraft carrier. For the past
decade, rumors have circulated that China is interested in buying or building a
carrier. A Chinese military delegation is known to have considered buying
Ukraine’s Varyag, and the Spanish shipbuilder Bazan is reported to have
submitted to China a design for a basic carrier....... China
now has eight yards
capable of VLCC and ULCC275ULCC230 construction, and it will add
more such yards in
the coming years. Many of these yards would be suitable for
the construction of
a large carrier. Another option for China would be to build
a medium-sized
carrier (30,-50,000 tons) for launching and retrieving helicopters
or vertical short
take-off/landing (VSTOL) fixed-wing aircraft. Such a ship
could be built from
a relatively basic design based on LHD-type platforms (i.e., multipurpose
multipurpose amphibious assault ships) similar to the ones used by the United
Kingdom,
Japan, and Thailand. Such a vessel could also be completed at a
number of
modern yards in China, even ones without VLCC capacity —
although with
substantial naval shipbuilding experience.
Although Chinese shipbuilders are quite capable of building the hull, other
parts of China’s defense industry would have to develop the equipment necessary
to outfit an aircraft carrier with the necessary propulsion systems, navigational
electronics, or weapon suites for self-defense or long-range operations. In
addition, China lacks the capability to build either large-capacity aircraft-lift
elevators or steam catapults for the movement and launching of aircraft; so a
Chinese carrier would have to rely on a ski-jump design. Thus, a Chinese carrier
would not resemble in any way, shape, or form a U.S. “big-deck” carrier, which
serves as the operational hub for an entire carrier battle group. If China chooses
to build an aircraft carrier, the need for more ships will become especially
pressing in order to regularly protect and replenish the carrier. The PLAN
currently lacks enough modern, multipurpose warships to adequately meet the
needs of defending and replenishing a carrier. It is to this end that an expanding
274
Testimony of Richard D. Fisher, Jr. For 3/16/06 USCC hearing,
229
Prepared statement of Richard D. Fisher, Jr., for a March 16, 2006, hearing before the
U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission hearing,, pp. 5-6. See also David
Lague, “An Aircraft Carrier For China?” International Herald-Tribune, January 31, 2006;
Norman Friedman, “Varyag Redux?” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, December 2005: 91.
275
230
VLCCs (very large crude carriers) and ULCCs (ultra-large crude carriers) are the two
largest kinds of commercial crude oil tankers.
CRS-106
and improving shipbuilding infrastructure is a necessary condition for the
development of modern, long-range naval capabilities.276
Surface Combatants. One observer states that by 2010, China’s surface
combatant force
could exceed 31 destroyers and 50 frigates, backed up by 30 ocean-capable
stealthy fast attack craft. Such a force could then be used in conjunction with
submarines and attack aircraft to impose a naval blockade around Taiwan.
Surface ships could also defend the airspace around Taiwan from U.S. Naval
forces, especially its P-3 anti-submarine warfare aircraft which would play a
critical role in defeating a blockade.277
Another set of observers states that improvements in China’s shipbuilding
industry
are also reflected in the improvements in Chinese warships commissioned in the
late 1990s and in many of the new naval projects currently coming online. The
newest vessels are more durable, are more capable of surviving damage, have
longer ranges, are stealthier, and are capable of carrying a variety of modern
weapon systems. China’s serial production of a variety of new naval platforms
in the past five years is notable in this regard. The current degree of
simultaneous production of several new classes of naval platforms has not been
seen in China for decades.278
Luhai (Type 051B) Destroyer. One set of observers states101
serves as the operational hub for an entire carrier battle group. If China chooses
to build an aircraft carrier, the need for more ships will become especially
pressing in order to regularly protect and replenish the carrier. The PLAN
currently lacks enough modern, multipurpose warships to adequately meet the
needs of defending and replenishing a carrier. It is to this end that an expanding
and improving shipbuilding infrastructure is a necessary condition for the
development of modern, long-range naval capabilities.231
Surface Combatants.
Luhai (Type 051B) Destroyer. One set of observers stated in 2005 that:
The Luhai-class destroyer, which was launched in October 1997 and
commissioned into the PLAN in late 1998, represented a significant design
advance over China’s second-generation Luhu-class destroyer. In terms of
overall size, the Luhai is 20 percent larger. It has a widened hull beam to
enhance stability, armament-carrying capacity, and crew living space. In
particular, the Luhai’s larger size permits four quad launchers for C801/C802
anti-ship missiles, which is double the number, deployed on the Luhu. The
Luhai also uses a gas turbine engine, which is more powerful than the Luhu’s
diesel gas turbine system. In addition, the design of the Luhai’s bridge and
superstructure exhibits a number of stealthy characteristics (particularly in
comparison to the Luhu’s structure). These design features include a streamlined
superstructure with inclined angles and two solid masts with fewer protruding
276
2005 RAND report, pp. 149-150. See also Statement of Cortez A. Cooper III for 3/16/06
USCC hearing, p. 5.
277
Fisher 7/27/05 testimony, p. 12.
278
2005 RAND report, p. 110. Similarly, the report states on page 140 that
The expansion and modernization of China’s shipbuilding industry
contributed to the PLAN’s efforts to design and build better naval vessels....
These developments have enabled Chinese shipbuilders to build more-seaworthy
and more reliable naval ships with better habitability, damage control facilities,
engines, and electronics. In short, Chinese shipbuilders have become more
efficient, better skilled, and more sophisticated in designing and building ships
for the PLAN.
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electronic sensor arrays. The stepped superstructure may have been designed
with the intention to equip the Luhai with vertical launch systems, possibly for
SAMs for an enhanced area-defense capability. The absence of such a system
on the Luhai suggests that that option was deferred for a time.279232
Luyang I (Type 052 B) and II (Type 052C) Destroyers. One set of
observers statesstated in 2005 that the Luyang I and II classes
represent important advances in the shipbuilding industry’s overall design and
production techniques.... The latter have a similar design as the former, but they
appear to be optimized for air-defense missions....
These four new destroyers represent an important evolution in shipbuilding
design capabilities, production techniques, and management practices. The hulls
are larger than the Luhai’s, which increases their weapons capacity, versatility,
and stability on the high seas. The designs of these vessels are even stealthier,
with sloped sides and a superstructure with a reduced profile — attributes that,
collectively, reduce the vessel’s radar signature. Also, these hulls were built
using modular shipbuilding, a technique increasingly widespread in China’s most
modern shipyards. Modular construction (as opposed to keel-up) allows for
work to be done on different sections at the same time, increasing the efficiency
and speed of the production process. One of the most significant aspects of the
new destroyers is the fact that China constructed these four new destroyers at the
same time and quite quickly as well, at least compared with past experiences.
This serial production of an indigenously designed vessel is a first in the PRC’s
231
2005 RAND report, pp. 149-150.
232
2005 RAND report, pp. 144-145.
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naval history and a testament to improved project management. The four new
052B- and 052C-class vessels have been built or have been under construction
within the past four years. By comparison, in the entire decade of the 1990s
China only built a second Luhu (1993) and one Luhai (1997) destroyer.
The 052C-class destroyer, in particular, possesses several important
attributes. First, according to Goldstein and Murray, it uses a phased array or
planar radar on the four corners of the bridges’ vertical superstructure, which
would be used with a SAM vertical launch system (VLS) for air-defense missiles
— a second important innovation. Both of these attributes are a first for a
Chinese combatant and help the PLAN resolve its long-standing weakness with
air defense. In the past, Chinese combatants relied on short-range SAMs for air
defense. A medium-range VLS SAM system would provide the Chinese navy
with its first, real area-defense vessel, and a collection of such ships could allow
the PLA Navy to operate surface action groups. If China is able to successfully
reverse engineer Russian-purchased SAMs, then it may deploy them on the 052C
destroyer. Some reports indicate that China may deploy its HQ-9 system (a
Chinese version of a Russian SAM with a range of about 120 km) on the new
destroyers. Such a system on the front of the new platform, combined with older
Chinese SAMs in the stern, would give the Chinese their first fleet air-defense
vessels.280233
Regarding the radar to be carried by the Luyang II class, a January 2006 press
article states:, “The two Chinese Project 052C destroyers have fixed array radars that
279
2005 RAND report, pp. 144-145.
280
2005 RAND report, pp. 146-147.
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are often described as active arrays, though that cannot be certain.”281234 Active radar
arrays use a technology that is more modern and more capable in certain respects
than the technology used in the SPY-1 radars on the U.S. Navy’s Aegis ships.
Regarding the HQ-9 SAM believed to be carried by the Luyang II-class
destroyers, ONI states:
The most challenging threat to aircraft and cruise missiles comes from
high-performance, long-range [SAM] systems like the Russian SA-10/SA-20
family. The system combines very powerful three-dimensional radar and a highperformance missile with engagement ranges in excess of 100 nautical miles
against a conventional target. The SA-10/SA-20 has been marketed widely and
has enjoyed some success in the export market, but its high cost has limited its
proliferation. Technology from the SA-10 is being incorporated into China’s
50-nautical mile range HQ-9 SAM, which is intended for use on the new
LUYANG destroyer. The HQ-9 will provide China’s navy with its first true area
air defense capability when the SAM becomes operational in the next few
years.282
Jiangkai I (Type 054) Frigates. One set of observers states that the Jiangkai
Jiangkai I (Type 054) Frigates. One set of observers stated in 2005 that the
Jiangkai I-class design
is larger and more modern than that of China’s Jiangwei II — class frigates. Like
China’s new destroyers, the new frigate has a more streamlined design and has
a larger displacement. These changes augment the new vessel’s warfighting
capabilities and its seaworthiness. Some sources note that the 054 frigate
resembles the French Layfayette-class guided-missile frigate because of the
minimalist design of the Type 054’s superstructure. The design of the new
frigate also offers greater options for outfitting the vessel with various weapon
suites. Some estimates indicate that the new frigate will have a significantly
enhanced set of weapon capabilities over the Jiangwei-class frigates, possibly
including VLS capabilities.283
Amphibious Ships. In addition to the new Type 071 class amphibious ship
discussed earlier in this report, the three other new classes of smaller amphibious
ships and craft that entered service between 2003 and 2005 are as follows:
!
Yuting II-class helicopter-capable tank landing ships (LSTs).
Three of these 4,800-ton ships entered service in 2003, another six
in 2004, and a 10th in 2005. Each ship can transport 10 tanks and
250 soldiers, and has a helicopter landing platform for two mediumsized helicopters. The ships were built at three shipyards, and
observers believe additional units might be built.
281
Norman Friedman, “A New Role For Active Radar Arrays?” U.S. Naval Institute
Proceedings, January 2006: 91.
282
2004 ONI WMC, p. 29.
283
2005 RAND report, p. 147.
CRS-109
!
Yunshu-class landing ships (LSMs). Ten of these 1,850-ton ships
entered service in 2004. Each ship can transport 6 tanks or 12 trucks
or 250 tons of supplies. The ships were built at four shipyards, and
observers believe additional units might be built.
!
Yubei-class utility landing craft (LCUs). Eight of these landing
craft entered service in 2004 and another two in 2005. Each craft
can transport 10 tanks and 150 soldiers. The ships were built at four
shipyards, and observers expect additional units.
China also has numerous older landing ships and craft of various designs,
including 10 Yuting I (Type 072 IV) class helicopter-capable tank landing ships
displacing 4,800 tons each that entered service between 1992 and 2002.
DOD states:
The PLA has increased amphibious ship production to address its lift
deficiencies; however, the Intelligence Community believes these increases alone
will be inadequate to meet requirements. The PLA is also organizing its civilian
merchant fleet and militia, which, given adequate notification, could augment
organic lift in amphibious operations. Transport increases were accompanied by
an increase of 25,000 troops, 200 tanks and 2,300 artillery pieces in the military
regions opposite Taiwan, according to the latest figures from DIA. The
increased troops and equipment in these military regions all appear capable of
participating in expeditionary operations.284
Another observer states:
The surface fleet highlight of the last year was the launch on 21 December
2006 of a 17,000 ton Type 071 [amphibious] assault ship (LPD) at HudongZhongua Shipyard, Shanghai. The construction of such a vessel had been
anticipated for several years as the logical next-step in the modernisation of
amphibious forces. The new ship, and expected follow-on units, is intended to
overcome shortcomings in command and control and rapid cross-beach
movement that have constrained amphibious capability. This despite the
introduction into service of three new classes of landing craft, comprising 30
ships, since 2003. The principal methods of landing troops from the LPD are to
be by heavy helicopters and by air-cushion vehicles, four of which can be
accommodated. The ship is unlikely to be commissioned until 2008 and,
thereafter, a long period of trials can be expected as the Chinese Navy evaluates
and learns to operate in its first major [amphibious] unit.285
Another observer states:
On December 20, 2006, China launched the PLAN’s largest combat
amphibious assault ship, an indigenously designed amphibious landing dock
(LPD) identified as the Type 071, which is similar to but a little bigger than the
284
2006 DOD CMP, p. 30. See also Fisher 7/27/05 testimony, p. 13.
285
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, p. 31 (Executive Overview).
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U.S. Whidbey Island-class LPD.286235
Jiangkai II (Type 054A) Frigates. One source stated in 2007 that:
This [[ast] year [i.e., 2007], we have seen that all 4 initial [Type] 054A
[frigates] have been launched and commissioned. Sadly, we did not see a second
233
2005 RAND report, pp. 146-147.
234
Norman Friedman, “A New Role For Active Radar Arrays?” U.S. Naval Institute
Proceedings, January 2006: 91.
235
2005 RAND report, p. 147.
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batch of 054A. Although it’s not as talked about, [the] Huangpu [HP] shipyard
also had a huge expansion this past year. While the dock was being used for
[building Type 022 fast attack craft] and the ocean tugging ship, [the] 054A
[program] was put on the back burners. I guess that showed the important
[importance] of these auxiliary ships, but also that PLAN wanted to test these
new ships out before building the second batch. With the Huangpu expansion,
we might see more 054 series [frigates] coming out in the future in [the] HP
[shipyard rather] than [the] HD [shipyard]. I would imagine that [the] 054A
[design] will begin construction again at both HD and HP next year. We might
see another 4 built next year. 236
Another source states:
A French source confirmed reports that as part of its license production
agreement, China has recently declared that it produced 24 SEMT Pielstick
diesel engines to support the production of six 3,500 ton Type 054A frigates;
each ship uses four of the diesels. This same French source was quite sure that
there would be a second production batch of 24 to support a second production
run for a total of 12 Type 054A frigates. So far three Type 054A frigates have
been launched since late 2006 from two shipyards, Hudong in Shanghai and
Huangpu in Guangzhou, with the fourth just launched by Hudong on May 23[,
2007]. At this rate it is possible that all 12 Type 054As will be built by the end
of 2009. The Type 054A marks a significant upgrade over the two Type 054
frigates launched in 2003, in that the former is outfitted with 32 new
vertical-launched versions of the 45km range Russian Altair Shtil-1.237
This source also states:
According the French and German sources interviewed at IMDEX, the
PLAN is developing a new class of frigate to accompany the Type 054A air
defense frigate now in series production. There was apparently a competition
between the engines of the French firm SEMT Pielstick and Germany’s MTU,
to provide the new diesel engine which will be paired with a gas turbine. MTU
won. The new frigate will use two diesels and two turbines, a conventional
configuration that could support a range of mission requirements. But the sources
interviewed had no insights regarding the size, mission and configuration for this
new ship.238
Amphibious Ships.
Type 071 Amphibious Ship. Regarding the Type 071 amphibious ship, one
observer states:
236
“PLAN looking forward to 2008,” available online at
[http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2007/12/plan-looking-forward-to-2008.html]
237
Richard Fisher, Jr., “Chinese Aspects of Singapore’s IMDEX Naval Technology Show,”
online article available at
[http://www.strategycenter.net/printVersion/print_pub.asp?pubID=163] IMDEX refers to
a naval technology show held in Singapore.
238
Richard Fisher, Jr., “Chinese Aspects of Singapore’s IMDEX Naval Technology Show,”
online article available at
[http://www.strategycenter.net/printVersion/print_pub.asp?pubID=163]
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After several years’ speculation, the existence of the [Type 071]
programme was confirmed when construction of a ship was initiated in
mid-2006. The programme constitutes a key component of the PLA(N)’s plan to
improve its sealift and power projection capabilities. Further ships are
expected....
The principal features of the ship include a large well deck area to
accommodate four Air Cushion Vehicles (ACV) in the aft two-thirds of the ship.
The ACVs are likely to access the ship through a stern gate. The ship may have
to ballast down for operation. There is a large stern helicopter flight deck and a
hangar. An internal garage deck for vehicles may be accessed via side ramps
(port and starboard). There is space for the HQ7 launcher which may be fitted at
a later date....
This ship represents a major enhancement of amphibious capability.239
Another observer states:
On December 20, 2006, China launched the PLAN’s largest combat
amphibious assault ship, an indigenously designed amphibious landing dock
(LPD) identified as the Type 071, which is similar to but a little bigger than the
U.S. Whidbey Island-class LPD.240 Designed in the 10th five-year plan (20012005), the ship was built in about six months in the second half of 2006 and
appears to be the first of four LPDs. The Type 071 appears to be designed to land
500-800 troops and 25-50 armored vehicles and supplies using 15 landing craft
or several large hovercraft. It will carry at least two Changhe Z-8 helicopters,
each capable of transporting 30 soldiers inland beyond the beachhead.287
Another set of observers states that
China’s development and production of new classes of amphibious vessels [is]
a testament to the SBI’s [shipbuilding industry’s] improved production capacity,
as well as to advances in ship-design and project-management skills. In the past
few years, China has designed a new class of landing ships/tanks (LSTs) and has
built at least seven of them. This new follow-on to the Yuting-class vessels is
enlarged and has a greater carrying capacity. With these new ships, China’s
inventory of LSTs has grown from 16 to 23. China also designed and built
several new medium-landing ships (LSMs), which appear to be a follow-on to
China’s Yuedeng-class vessels. In addition, Goldstein and Murray note that the
PLA Navy aspires to building a 12,300-ton amphibious transport dock (LDP)
capable of transporting several helicopters and air-cushion landing crafts.288
Information Warfare/Information Operations (IW/IO). Regarding IW/IO
capabilities, ONI states, without reference to any specific country:
IO is the combination of computer network attack, electronic warfare, denial and
deception (D&D), and psychological operations (PSYOP)....
Outside attack on Navy networks can take different forms depending on the
attacker’s goals and sophistication. Navy networks have been targeted for denial
of service attacks from the Internet. More sophisticated operations, perhaps
conducted by foreign military or intelligence services, might include covertly
mapping Navy networks, installing backdoors to facilitate future intrusions,
stealing data, and leaving behind destructive code packages to be activated in
time of conflict. Malicious codes like the Melissa virus have appeared in
classified networks, demonstrating that an external attack on ostensibly protected
networks could succeed. Attacks could selectively alter information in Navy
databases and files, introducing errors into the system. When discovered or
revealed, this corruption of trusted data could cause us to lose confidence in the
integrity of the entire database.289
A November 2006 press report stated that:
286
This is a reference to the U.S. Navy’s Whidbey Island (LSD-41) class amphibious ships,
which have a full load displacement of about 15,800 tons.
287
John J. Tkacik, Jr., China’s Quest for a Superpower Military, Heritage Foundation
Backgrounder No. 2036, May 17, 2007, p. 131.
288
2005 RAND report, pp. 147-148.
289
2004 ONI WMC, p. 38.
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Chinese computer hackers penetrated the Naval War College network
earlier this month, forcing security authorities to shut down all e-mail and official
computer network work at the Navy’s school for senior officers.
Navy officials said the computer attack was detected Nov. 15 and two days
later the U.S. Strategic Command raised the security alert level for the
Pentagon’s 12,000 computer networks and 5 million computers.
A spokesman for the Navy Cyber Defense Operations Command, located
in Norfolk, said “network intrusions” were detected at the Newport, R.I., military
school two weeks ago.
“The system-network connection was terminated and known affected
systems were removed and are being examined for forensic evidence to
determine the extent of the intrusion,” said Lt. Cmdr. Doug Gabos, the
spokesman.
“The Naval War College computer system-network is used by students at
the war college and contains Navy Professional Reading Program and other
materials, all of which are unclassified information.”...
Cmdr. Gabos declined to comment on the origin of the attack. “The nature
and extent of intrusion are operational issues,” he said. “I can tell you it was an
isolated incident and did not affect other elements of Department of Defense.”
However, the U.S. Strategic Command, which is in charge of Defense
Department computer warfare and defenses, issued a directive about the time the
attack was detected ordering all defense computer users to heighten security by
changing passwords....
Alan Paller, a computer security specialist with the private SANS Institute,
said the Chinese network attack against the war college is “the tip of the
iceberg.”
“The depth of the penetration is more than anybody is even admitting,” he
said in an interview. “People are trying to hide this because they’re
embarrassed.”
Mr. Paller said the Chinese military’s doctrine calls for waging
cyber-warfare against computer networks. “Part of it is gathering data and part
is leaving a back door so they can get in [to military computers] in the future,”
he said.290
Commenting on this event, another observer states:
In mid-November [2006], computer security officials determined that
Chinese hackers had penetrated the computer network at the Naval War College
in Rhode Island. Retired Air Force Major General Richard Goetze, a professor
at the Naval War College, said the Chinese took down the entire Naval War
College computer network, an operation that prompted the U.S. Strategic
290
Bill Gertz, “Chinese Hackers Prompt Navy College Site Closure,” Washington Times,
November 30, 2007. Bracketed material as in the original.
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Command to raise the security alert level for the Pentagon’s 12,000 computer
networks and 5 million computers. One report hinted that the Chinese
cyberwarriors may have been targeting the college’s Strategic Studies Group,
which had begun developing concepts for waging cyberwarfare.291
Nuclear Weapons. Regarding the potential use of nuclear weapons against
U.S. Navy forces, one241
Potential Type 081 Amphibious Ship. Regarding the potential Type 081
amphibious ship, one source states:
At the May 2007 IMDEX naval technology show in Singapore, a Chinese
industry source confirmed to Jane’s that China has a programme for a LHD [i.e.,
a large amphibious assault ship], but did not disclose details other than to note:
“We can now build that ship.”
However, late 2006 reports in India’s Force magazine noted that China
would build up to three Type 081 LHD ships and six Type 071 LPD vessels, the
first of which was launched in late December 2006. One Asian military source
has told Jane’s that the flat-deck Type 081 will displace about 20,000 tonnes, and
as such, would be similar in size to the French Mistral LHD.242
There have been no reports so far that China has starting building LHDs.
China’s interest in LHDs has been noted since the late 1990s and would form a
239
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, p. 139.
240
This is a reference to the U.S. Navy’s Whidbey Island (LSD-41) class amphibious ships,
which have a full load displacement of about 15,800 tons.
241
John J. Tkacik, Jr., China’s Quest for a Superpower Military, Heritage Foundation
Backgrounder No. 2036, May 17, 2007, p. 131.
242
A 20,000-ton LHD would also be about half the size of U.S. Navy LHDs.
CRS-105
logical compliment to its Type 071 LPDs. Asian military sources put the Type
071 also at about 20,000 tonnes displacement with a capacity to carry up to 800
troops plus scores of armoured vehicles. One Asian military source tells Jane’s
that China could build two to eight Type 071s.243
Another source states:
The most visible new class [of amphibious ships] is obviously the 071 LPD.
We’ve seen the first one joining service in SSF [the South Sea Fleet] as [hull
number] 998. We’ve yet to see work on a second unit. We know that [the] Dalian
[shipyard] and [the] HD shipyard both competed for the first 071 contract with
HD winning. It kind of made sense, because HD generally builds ships faster. I
believe we will see another unit of 071 being built next year [i.e., in 2008] and
that will be done at Dalian. At the same time, HD will probably start construction
of China’s first LHD. We’ve talked about the challenges surrounding a Chinese
LHD in the past, but there does seem to be enough political and military will at
this point for a unit of this class.244
Other Amphibious Ships and Craft. In addition to Type 071 and Type
081 class amphibious ships, the three other new classes of smaller amphibious ships
and craft that entered service between 2003 and 2005 are as follows:
!
Yuting II-class helicopter-capable tank landing ships (LSTs).
Three of these 4,800-ton ships entered service in 2003, another six
in 2004, and a 10th in 2005. Each ship can transport 10 tanks and
250 soldiers, and has a helicopter landing platform for two mediumsized helicopters. The ships were built at three shipyards, and
observers believe additional units might be built.
!
Yunshu-class landing ships (LSMs). Ten of these 1,850-ton ships
entered service in 2004. Each ship can transport 6 tanks or 12 trucks
or 250 tons of supplies. The ships were built at four shipyards, and
observers believe additional units might be built.
!
Yubei-class utility landing craft (LCUs). Eight of these landing
craft entered service in 2004 and another two in 2005. Each craft
can transport 10 tanks and 150 soldiers. The ships were built at four
shipyards, and observers expect additional units.
China also has numerous older landing ships and craft of various designs,
including 10 Yuting I (Type 072 IV) class helicopter-capable tank landing ships
displacing 4,800 tons each that entered service between 1992 and 2002.
DOD stated in 2006 that:
243
Richard D. Fisher Jr., “Naval Gazing, Emerging Expeditionary Capabilities in the
Western Pacific,” Jane’s Intelligence Review, August 2007: 55.
244
“PLAN looking forward to 2008,” available online at [http://china-pla.blogspot.com/
2007/12/plan-looking-forward-to-2008.html].
CRS-106
The PLA has increased amphibious ship production to address its lift
deficiencies; however, the Intelligence Community believes these increases alone
will be inadequate to meet requirements. The PLA is also organizing its civilian
merchant fleet and militia, which, given adequate notification, could augment
organic lift in amphibious operations. Transport increases were accompanied by
an increase of 25,000 troops, 200 tanks and 2,300 artillery pieces in the military
regions opposite Taiwan, according to the latest figures from DIA. The
increased troops and equipment in these military regions all appear capable of
participating in expeditionary operations.245
Another observer stated in 2007 that:
The surface fleet highlight of the last year was the launch on 21 December
2006 of a 17,000 ton Type 071 [amphibious] assault ship (LPD) at HudongZhongua Shipyard, Shanghai. The construction of such a vessel had been
anticipated for several years as the logical next-step in the modernisation of
amphibious forces. The new ship, and expected follow-on units, is intended to
overcome shortcomings in command and control and rapid cross-beach
movement that have constrained amphibious capability. This despite the
introduction into service of three new classes of landing craft, comprising 30
ships, since 2003. The principal methods of landing troops from the LPD are to
be by heavy helicopters and by air-cushion vehicles, four of which can be
accommodated. The ship is unlikely to be commissioned until 2008 and,
thereafter, a long period of trials can be expected as the Chinese Navy evaluates
and learns to operate in its first major [amphibious] unit.246
Nuclear Weapons. Regarding the potential use of nuclear weapons against
U.S. Navy forces, a 2004 study states that
there is some evidence the PLA considers nuclear weapons to be a useful element
of an anti-access strategy. In addition to the nuclear-capable [ballistic] missiles...
China has nuclear bombs and aircraft to carry them, and is reported to have
nuclear mines for use at sea and nuclear anti-ship missiles. At the very least,
China would expect the presence of these weapons and the threat to use them to
be a significant deterrent to American action.292247
Regarding the possibility of China using a high-altitude nuclear detonation to
create an EMP effect, DOD statesstated in 2005 that:
Some PLA theorists are aware of the electromagnetic effects of using a
high-altitude nuclear burst to generate high-altitude electromagnetic pulse
(HEMP), and might consider using HEMP as an unconventional attack, believing
the United States and other nations would not interpret it as a use of force and as
crossing the nuclear threshold. This capability would most likely be used as part
of a larger campaign to intimidate, if not decapitate, the Taiwan leadership.
HEMP causes a substantial change in the ionization of the upper atmosphere,
including the ionosphere and magnetosphere. These effects likely would result
245
2006 DOD CMP, p. 30.
246
Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, p. 31 (Executive Overview).
247
The Chinese Military, An Emerging Maritime Challenge, Washington, Lexington
Institute, 2004, pp. 13-14.
CRS-107
in the degradation of important war fighting capabilities, such as key
communication links, radar transmissions, and the full spectrum of electro-optic
sensors. Additional effects could include severe disruptions to civil
electric/power and transportation. These effects cannot easily be localized to
Taiwan and would likely affect the mainland, Japan, the Philippines, and
commercial shipping and air routes in the region.293248
Whether China would agree with the above view that EMP effects could not
easily be localized to Taiwan and surrounding waters is not clear. The effective
radius of a high-altitude EMP burst is dependent to a strong degree on the altitude at
which the warhead is exploded (the higher the altitude, the greater the radius).294249
China might therefore believe that it could detonate a nuclear warhead somewhere
east of Taiwan at a relatively low altitude, so that the resulting EMP radius would be
291
John J. Tkacik, Jr., China’s Quest for a Superpower Military, Heritage Foundation
Backgrounder No. 2036, May 17, 2007, p. 17.
292
The Chinese Military, An Emerging Maritime Challenge, Washington, Lexington
Institute, 2004, pp. 13-14.
293
294
2005 DOD CMP, p. 40.
sufficient to affect systems in Taiwan and on surface ships in surrounding waters, but
not great enough to reach systems on China’s mainland.250 Following the detonation,
China could attempt to confuse the issue in the public arena of whose nuclear
warhead had detonated. Alternatively, China could claim that the missile launch was
248
2005 DOD CMP, p. 40.
249
A report by the Office of Technology Assessment (a congressional support agency that
was closed in 1995), states: “The size of the area that could be affected by EMP is primarily
determined by the height of burst and is only very weakly dependent on the yield.” (MX
Missile Basing. Washington, Office of Technology Assessment, 1981. (September 1981)
p. 297. The document is available on the Internet at [http://www.wws.princeton.edu/ota/
ns20/year_f.html].
CRS-113
sufficient to affect systems in Taiwan and on surface ships in surrounding waters, but
not great enough to reach systems on China’s mainland.295 Following the detonation,
China could attempt to confuse the issue in the public arena of whose nuclear
warhead had detonated. Alternatively, China could claim that the missile launch was
an accident, and that China command-detonated the warhead at altitude as a failsafe
measure, to prevent it from detonating closer to the surface and destroying any nearby
ships.296
High-Power Microwave (HPM) Weapons.
weapons, DOD states:
Regarding radio-frequency
Chinese technicians are working to develop several types of “new concept”
weapon systems, two of which are radio frequency and laser-based systems.
Long-range beam weapons would use narrow radio frequency (RF) beams
to engage targets such as aircraft or precision guided munitions (PGMs).
Short-range systems would be packaged into missiles or artillery shells and
launched into the vicinity of targets such as radars or command posts before
releasing an RF pulse. In recent years, the application of RF weapons has
expanded to include deployment on small vehicles or in suitcases for targeting
critical military or civilian infrastructures where close access is possible.
295
250
CRS Report RL32544, op cit., states that “creating a HEMP [high-altitude EMP] effect
over an area 250 miles in diameter [i.e., a radius of 125 miles], an example size for a
battlefield, might only require a rocket with a modest altitude and payload capability that
could loft a relatively small nuclear device.”
One observer states that a detonation height of 200 kilometers (108 nautical miles) would
produce an EMP effect out to a radius of about 1,600 kilometers (864 nautical miles), while
a detonation height of 50 kilometers would produce an EMP effect out to a radius of about
800 kilometers (432 nautical miles). (Written Statement by Dr. Michael Bernardin, Provost
for the Theoretical Institute for Thermonuclear and Nuclear Studies, Applied Theoretical
and Computational Physics Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, before the Military
Research and Development Subcommittee of the House Armed Services Committee,
October 7, 1999.)
A map presented by another observer shows that a detonation height of 100 kilometers (54
nautical miles) would produce an EMP effect out to a radius of about 1,000 kilometers (540
nautical miles). (Statement of Dr. Gary Smith, Director, The Johns Hopkins University
Applied Physics Laboratory, before Military Research and Development Subcommittee of
the House Armed Services Committee, July 16, 1996.)
Another published map states that a detonation height of 30 miles would produce an EMP
effect out to a radius of 480 miles. A source note attached to the map attributes it to the
above-cited July 16, 1997 testimony of Gary Smith. (See page 3 of Jack Spencer, America’s
Vulnerability To A Different Nuclear Threat: An Electromagnetic Pulse. Washington,
Heritage Foundation, 2000. 7 pp. (Backgrounder No. 1372, May 26, 2000) The document
is available on the Internet at [http://www.heritage.org/Research/MissileDefense/
bg1372.cfm]).
296
Even if China does not have the capability to command the early detonation of a warhead
on a ballistic missile in flight, it could claim afterward that it did.
CRS-114
PRC officials have publicly indicated their intent to acquire RF weapons
as a means of defeating technologically advanced military forces. Chinese
writings have suggested that RF weapons could be used against C4ISR, guided
missiles, computer networks, electronically-fused mines, aircraft carrier battle
groups, and satellites in orbit.
Analysis of Chinese technical literature indicates a major effort is underway
to develop the technologies required for RF weapons, including high-power
radiofrequency sources, prime-power generators, and antennas to radiate RF
pulses.297
ONI states:
Radio-frequency weapons (RFW) could be used against military networks
since they transmit high power radio/microwave energy to damage/disrupt
electronic components. RFWs fall into two categories, beam and warhead. A
beam weapon is a multiple use system that can repeatedly send directional RF
energy at different targets. An RF warhead is a single-use explosive device that
can be delivered to the target by multiple means, including missiles or artillery
shells. RFWs can be assembled with little technical knowledge from commercial
off-the-shelf components, such as surplus military radars.298
One observer states that, “at least one U.S. source indicates the PLA has
developed” non-nuclear radio frequency warheads for ballistic missiles.299 When
asked at a hearing about the possibility of China using a nuclear weapon to generate
CRS-108
an accident, and that China command-detonated the warhead at altitude as a failsafe
measure, to prevent it from detonating closer to the surface and destroying any nearby
ships.251
High-Power Microwave (HPM) Weapons.
weapons, DOD stated in 2006 that:
Regarding radio-frequency
Chinese technicians are working to develop several types of “new concept”
weapon systems, two of which are radio frequency and laser-based systems.
Long-range beam weapons would use narrow radio frequency (RF) beams
to engage targets such as aircraft or precision guided munitions (PGMs).
Short-range systems would be packaged into missiles or artillery shells and
launched into the vicinity of targets such as radars or command posts before
releasing an RF pulse. In recent years, the application of RF weapons has
expanded to include deployment on small vehicles or in suitcases for targeting
critical military or civilian infrastructures where close access is possible.
PRC officials have publicly indicated their intent to acquire RF weapons
as a means of defeating technologically advanced military forces. Chinese
writings have suggested that RF weapons could be used against C4ISR, guided
missiles, computer networks, electronically-fused mines, aircraft carrier battle
groups, and satellites in orbit.
Analysis of Chinese technical literature indicates a major effort is underway
to develop the technologies required for RF weapons, including high-power
radiofrequency sources, prime-power generators, and antennas to radiate RF
pulses.252
One observer stated in 2005 that “at least one U.S. source indicates the PLA has
developed” non-nuclear radio frequency warheads for ballistic missiles.253 When
asked at a hearing in 2005 about the possibility of China using a nuclear weapon to
generate an EMP effect against Taiwan and U.S. naval forces, this observer stated:
What worries me more, Congressman, is non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse
weapons. Non-nuclear explosive propelled radio frequency or EMP-like devices
that could be used with far greater frequency and far more effect because they
would not run the danger for China of prompting a possible nuclear response.
Thereby it would be much more tempting to use and use effectively.
If you could combine a non-nuclear radio frequency weapon with a
maneuvering ballistic missile of the type that the Pentagon report describes very
briefly this year, that would constitute a real Assassin’s Mace weapon. One that,
in my opinion, we cannot defend ourselves against and would possibly
effectively deny effective military — effective American military intervention
in the event of — not just a Taiwan crisis, but other crises as well.300
297
2006 DOD CMP, p. 34.
298
2004 ONI WMC, p. 39.
299
Fisher 7/27/05 testimony251
Even if China does not have the capability to command the early detonation of a warhead
on a ballistic missile in flight, it could claim afterward that it did.
252
253
2006 DOD CMP, p. 34.
Prepared statement of Richard D. Fisher, Jr., for a July 27, 2005, hearing before the
House Armed Services Committee, p. 6. A footnote at this point in Fisher’s statement says this
this information was: “Disclosed to the author by a U.S. source in September 2004.” See also
page 9.
300
Spoken testimony of Richard D. Fisher, Jr., in transcript of 7/27/05 HASC hearing, in
also page 9.
CRS-109
effectively deny effective military — effective American military intervention
in the event of — not just a Taiwan crisis, but other crises as well.254
254
Transcript of spoken testimony of Richard D. Fisher, Jr., at July 27, 2005 hearing before
House Armed Services Committee, in response to a question from Representative Curt
Weldon.