Order Code RS21968
Updated March 30April 24, 2006
CRS Report for Congress
Received through the CRS Web
Iraq: Elections, Government, and Constitution
Kenneth Katzman
Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs
Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division
Summary
Elections in 2005 for a transitional National Assembly and government (January
30, 2005), a permanent
constitution (October 15), and a permanent (four year) Council
of Representatives and government (December 15) were
concluded despite insurgent
violence and attracted violence, progressively increasingattracting Sunni participation. However,
escalating sectarian
Sectarian violence and factional infighting haverivalry delayed formation of a new
government. (See CRS Report government until
late April. The government now forming is a coalition of major ethnic and sectarian
factions, similar to the 2004-2005 post-Saddam governments. (See CRS Report
RL31339, Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security,
by Kenneth Katzman.)
Shortly after Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) deposed Saddam Hussein’s regime in
April 2003, the Bush Administration linked the end of U.S. military occupation to the
completion of a new constitution and the holding of national elections, tasks expected to
take two years. Prominent Iraqis persuaded the Administration to accelerate the process,
and sovereignty was given to an appointed government on June 28, 2004, with a
government and a permanent constitution to be voted on thereafter, as stipulated in a
Transitional Administrative Law (TAL, signed March 8, 2004), as follows:1
1
!
The elections held on January 30, 2005, were for a 275-seat transitional
National Assembly; a provincial assembly in each of Iraq’s 18 provinces
(41 seats each; 51 for Baghdad); and a Kurdistan regional assembly (111
seats). The Assembly chose a transitional “presidency council” (a
president and two deputies), a prime minister with executive power, and
a cabinet.
!
The transitional Assembly was to draft a constitution by August 15,
2005, to be put to a referendum by October 15, 2005. The draft could be
vetoed with a two-thirds majority of the votes in any three provinces. A
permanent government would be elected by December 15, 2005, and it
would take office by December 31, 2005. If a constitution was defeated,
For text, see [http://cpa-iraq.org/government/TAL.html].
Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress
CRS-2
the December 15 elections would be for another transitional National
Assembly (which would draft a new constitution).
January 30 Elections
The January 30, 2005, elections, run by the “Independent Electoral Commission of
Iraq” (IECI), were conducted by proportional representation (closed list); voters chose
among “political entities” (a party, a coalition of parties, or individuals). Seats in the
Assembly and the provincial assemblies were allocated in proportion to a slate’s showing;
any entity receiving at least 1/275 of the vote (about 31,000 votes) won a seat. A female
candidate occupied every third position on electoral lists in order to meet the TAL’s goal
for at least 25% female membership. A total of 111 entities were on the National
Assembly ballot: 9 multi-party coalitions, 75 single parties, and 27 individual persons.
The 111 entities contained over 7,000 candidates. About 9,000 candidates, organized into
party slates, ran in provincial and Kurdish elections.
In the January 30 (and December 15) elections, Iraqis abroad were eligible to vote.
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) was tapped to run the “out-of-country
voting” (OCV) program. OCV took place in Australia, Canada, Denmark, France,
Germany, Iran, Jordan, Sweden, Syria, Turkey, UAE, Britain, Netherlands, and the United
States. (See [http://www.iraqocv.org].) About 275,000 Iraqi expatriates (dual citizens
and anyone who can demonstrate that their father was Iraqi) registered, and about 90%
of them voted (in January).
There were about 14 million eligible voters (15 million in the two subsequent votes
in 2005). Voters need to be at least 18 years old. There were about 5,200 polling centers
in January, and 6,200 in the December elections, both staffed by about 200,000 Iraqis.
Monitoring was limited in both elections; in January, a Canada-led contingent of about
25 observers from eleven nations were based in Jordan (onebased in Jordan, which assessed reports on the voting
by about 50,000 Iraqi monitors. (One of the international observers was in Iraq). In the
December election, some European parliament members and others contributed to the
monitoring of themonitored voting.
The Iraqi government budgeted about $250 million for the January elections, of
which $130 million was offset by international donors, including about $40 million from
the European Union. Out of $21 billion in U.S. reconstruction funds, the United States
provided $40 million to improve IECI capacity; $42.5 million for Iraqi monitoring; and
$40 million for political party development, through the International Republican Institute
and National Democratic Institute. OCV cost an additional $92 million, of which $11
million was for the U.S. component, but no U.S. funds were spent for OCV.
Violence was far less than some anticipated; insurgents conducted about 300 attacks,
but no polling stations were overrun. Polling centers were guarded on election day by the
130,000 members of Iraq’s security forces, with the 150,000 U.S. forces in Iraq available
for backup. Two days prior to election day, vehicle traffic was banned, Iraq’s borders
were closed, and polling locations were confirmed. Security measures were similar for
the October 15 and December 15 votes, although with more Iraqi troops and police
available (about 215,000) than in January. Turnout was about 58% (about 8.5 million
votes).
Competition and Results. The Iraqi groups that took the most active interest in
the January elections were those best positioned: Shiite Islamist parties, the Kurds, and
CRS-3
established secular parties. The results of this and the December 2005 election are shown
in the table below. The most prominent slate was the Shiite Islamist “United Iraqi
Alliance” (UIA), consisting of 228 candidates from 22 parties, primarily the Supreme
Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and the Da’wa Party. It was backed
by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. The first candidate on this slate was SCIRI leader Abd
al-Aziz al-Hakim; Da’wa leader Ibrahim al-Jafari was number seven. Even though
radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr denounced the election as a U.S.-led process, 14 of
his supporters were on the UIA slate; eight of these won seats. The two main Kurdish
CRS-3
parties, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party
(KDP) offered a joint 165-candidate “Kurdish Alliance” list. Interim Prime Minister Iyad
al-Allawi filed a
six-party, 233-candidate “Iraqi List” led by his Iraqi National Accord
(INA) party. The
Communist Party filed a 257-candidate “People’s Union” slate.2
Sunni Arabs (20% of the overall population), perceiving electoral defeat and
insurgent intimidation, mostly boycotted and won only 17 seats spread over several lists.
The relatively moderate Sunni “Iraqi Islamic Party” (IIP) filed a 275-seat slate, but it
withdrew in December 2004. The hard-line Iraqi Muslim Scholars Association (MSA),
said to be close to the insurgents, called for a Sunni boycott.
Violence was far less than some anticipated; insurgents conducted about 300 attacks,
but no polling stations were overrun. Polling centers were guarded on election day by the
130,000 members of Iraq’s security forces, with the 150,000 U.S. forces in Iraq available
for backup. Two days prior to election day, vehicle traffic was banned, Iraq’s borders
were closed, and polling locations were confirmed. Security measures were similar for
the October 15 and December 15 votes, although with more Iraqi troops and police
available (about 215,000) than in January.
Total turnout in January was about 58% (about 8.5 million votes); results are in
Table 1. After the election, factional bargaining over governmental posts and
disagreements After the election, factional bargaining over governmental posts and disagreements
over Kurdish demands for substantial autonomy delayed formation of the
government.
During April and May, the factions formed a government that U.S. officials
said was not
sufficiently inclusive of the Sunni minority, even though it had a Sunni
(Hajim al-HassanialHassani) as Assembly speaker; a Sunni deputy president (Ghazi al-Yawar); a
Sunni Sunni
deputy prime minister (Abd al-Mutlak al-Jabburi); a Sunni Defense Minister
(Sadoun
Dulaymi); and five other Sunni ministers. The Sunnis complained that their
ministerial ministerial
slots (other than Defense) were relatively unimportant, such as the ministries
of culture
and of women’s affairs. The other major positions were dominated by Shiites
and Kurds,
such as PUK leader Jalal Talabani as president; Da’wa leader Ibrahim alJafarial-Jafari as Prime
Minister; SCIRI’s Adel Abd al-Mahdi as the second deputy president;
Bayan Jabr as
Interior Minister, which controls the police and policerelated commando forces;
and KDP
activist Hoshyar Zebari as Foreign Minister. Ahmad Chalabi and KDP activist Rosch
Shaways were named as the two other deputy prime ministers. There is also one Christian
, and there was one
Christian and one Turkoman minister. In provincial elections, the Kurds won about 60%
of the
seats in Tamim (Kirkuk) province (26 out of 41 seats), strengthening the Kurds’ efforts
efforts to gain control of the province.
Permanent Constitution and Referendum
The next step in the transition process was the drafting of a permanent constitution.
On May 10, the National Assembly appointed a 55-member drafting committee, with a
SCIRI official,chaired
by SCIRI activist Humam al-Hammoudi, as chair. The committee included only two Sunni
Arabs,
prompting Sunni resentment, and 15 Sunnis (and one member of the small Sabian
community) were later added as full committee members, with 10 more as advisors.
Missing the August 15 deadline to produce a draft, the talks produced a document on
August 28 that included some compromises sought by Sunnis — the Shiites and Kurds
2
For information on these groups, see CRS Report RL31339, Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance
and Security, by Kenneth Katzman.
CRS-4
August 28 that included some compromises sought by Sunnis, and the Shiites and Kurds
declared it final. The Kurds achieved a major goal; Article 136 setsset December 31, 2007,
as a deadline for resettling Kurds in Kirkuk and holding a referendum on whether Kirkuk
will join the Kurdish region.
The draft (Article 2)3 designated Islam “a main source” of legislation and said no
law can contradict the “established” provisions of Islam. Article 39 implied that families
could choose which courts to use to adjudicate domesticfamily issues such as divorce and
inheritance, and Article 34 made only primary education mandatory. These provisions
provoked opposition from women who fear that the males of their families will decide to
use Sharia (Islamic law) courts for family issues and forlimit girls’ education. The 25%
electoral goal for women was retained (Article 47). Article 89 said that federal supreme
court will include experts in Islamic law, as well as judges and experts in civil law.
Sunni negotiators, including chief negotiator Saleh al-Mutlak of the National
Dialogue Council opposed the August 28 draft because it allowed two or more provinces
The remaining controversy centered on the draft’s provision allowing two or more
provinces together to form new autonomous “regions.” Article 117 allowed each “region” to
to organize internal security forces, which would legitimize the fielding of sectarian
militias,
in addition to the Kurds’ peshmerga, which were allowed by the TAL. Article 109
109 required the central government to distribute oil and gas revenues from “current
fields”
in proportion to population, implying that the regions might ultimately control revenues
revenues from new energy discoveries. These provisions raised Sunni alarms, because
their areas
have no known oil or gas deposits, and Sunni negotiators, including chief
negotiator Saleh al-Mutlak of the National Dialogue Council opposed the draft on these
grounds. Article 62 establishes a “Federation Council” — a
second chamber of a size and
with powers to be determined — presumably to review
legislation affecting the regions.
After further negotiations, on September 19, 2005, the National Assembly approved
a “final” draft, with some modifications that Sunnis wanted, including clarifying
government control over water rights, and a statement that Iraq has always been part of
the Arab League. The United Nations subsequently printed and distributed 5 million
copies of the draft. EndingHowever, no major changes to the provisions on new regions were
made and, ending their political boycott, Sunnis registered in large numbers
(70%-85%
in some Sunni cities) in an effort to try to defeat the constitution. The
United Nations printed and
distributed 5 million copies of the draft. The continued Sunni opposition prompted U.S.
Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad to
mediate an agreement (October 11) between
Kurdish and Shiite leaders and a major Sunni
party, the Iraqi Islamic Party, providing for
(Article 137) a panel to convene after the
installation of a post-December 15 election
government and, within four months, propose
a bloc of amendments. The amendments
require a majority Assembly vote of approval
and, within another two months, would be
put to a public referendum under the same
rules as the October 15, 2005, referendum. The
major assumption of the deal is that
Sunnis would be politically strengthened by their participation
participating in the December 15
election and would be well positioned to achieve adoption ofable to demand amendments.
The referendum was relatively peaceful, with total turnout about 60% (about 10
million voting), suggesting high Sunni turnout. Final results (released October 25)
nationwide were 78.6% in favor and 21.4% against. The mostly Sunni provinces of
Anbar and Salahuddin had a 97% and 82% “no” vote, respectively. The mostly Sunni
province of Nineveh voted 55% “no.” Diyala province, believed mostly Sunni, had a
slight majority “yes” vote (51%). The draft was declared adopted because only two
3
[http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/12/AR2005101201450.html].
CRS-5
slight majority “yes” vote (51%). The draft was declared adopted because only two
provinces, not three, voted “no” with a 2/3 majority. The Administration praised the vote
as evidence that Sunnis were moving into the political process.
December 15, 2005, Elections
Under a July 2005 election law, for the December 15 elections each province
constituted an election constituency and contributed a fixed number of seats to the new
“Council of Representatives.” Of the 275-seat body, 230 seats were allocated that way,
and there were 45 “compensatory” seats for entities that did not win provincial seats but
garnered votes nationwide, or which would have won additional seats had the election
constituency been the whole nation. The altered format was intended to improve the
prospects for Sunnis to win seats. A total of 361 political “entities” registered: 19 of
them were coalition slates (comprising 125 different political parties), and 342 were other
“entities” (parties or individual persons). About 7,500 candidates spanned all entities.
Most notably for U.S. policy, major Sunni slates competed. Most prominent was the
three-party “Iraqi Concord Front,” comprising the IIP, the National Dialogue Council,
and the Iraqi People’s General Council. In contrast to the January election, the UIA slate
formally included Sadr’s faction (about 30 candidates on the slate) as well as other harder
line Shiite parties Fadila (Virtue) and Iraqi Hizballah. Ahmad Chalabi’s Iraqi National
Congress ran separately. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani’s office tacitly, but not publicly,
endorsed the UIA slate. Former Prime Minister Iyad al-Allawi’s mostly secular 15-party
“Iraqi National” slate was broader than his January list, incorporating not only his Iraq
National Accord but also the Communist Party, Yawar’s “Iraqis” party, and Adnan
Pachachi’s “Independent Democratic Gathering.” The “Kurdistan Alliance”Kurdish alliance slate was
little little
changed from January.
Turnout was about 70%, mostly because of a Sunni vote that exceeded 50%.
Violence was minor (about 30 incidents) as some Sunni insurgents, supporting greater
Sunni representation in parliament, helped guard rather than disrupt the voting. Results
suggest that voters appear to have chosen lists representing their sects and regions and did
not support secular, non-sectarian lists. The table gives final results that were released
on January 20, 2006, and court-certified
on February 10, 2006. According to the
constitution, the timetable for subsequent
government formation should behave been as follows:
!
within 15 days of certification (by February 25), the Council of
Representatives was to convene to select a speaker and two deputy
speakers. (The Council convened on March 16 to be sworn in, but it did
not select a Speaker or any other Council leadership positions);
!
after choosing a Council speaker the Council iswas to select (no deadline
specified, but a thirty-day deadline for the choice after subsequent
Council elections), a presidency council for Iraq (President and two
deputies). Those choices require a 2/3 vote of the Council;
!
within another 15 days, the presidency council (by consensus of its three
officials) iswas to designate the “nominee of the [Council] bloc with the
largest number” as Prime Minister, the post that has executive power;
CRS-6
!
within another 30 days, the prime minister designate names a was to name a
cabinet for
approval by majority vote of the Council.
!
CRS-6
The UIA and the Kurds were well positioned to continue their governing alliance;
combined they have 181 seats, just shy of the 184 (two-thirds) needed to name a
presidency council, but they could probably recruit small allied parties (pro-Sadr Shiites
or Islamist Kurds) to exceed that threshold. However, their alliance has frayed over the
UIA’s February 12
nomination of Jafari to continue as Prime Minister. In an internal UIA
poll, Jafari fended off a challenge by SCIRI’s Adel Abd al-Mahdi, by one vote, largely
because Moqtada al-Sadr threw his support to Jafari. (he was nominated by a one-vote
margin over SCIRI’s Adel Abd al-Mahdi, largely because of support by Moqtada al-Sadr).
With senior U.S. officials urging
formation of a “unity government” as soon as possible,
the Kurds, Sunni groupings, and
Allawi’s bloc, reportedly with U.S. backing, have jointly sought to reverse Allawi’s bloc, reversed the Jafari
choice on the grounds
that he has been ineffective in securing Iraq and is too close to
Sadr. In a March 30, 2006, interview with the New York Times, Jafari criticized what he
called U.S. interference with the “democratic process” to oppose him and said he is trying
to coax Sadr’s Mahdi Army and other militias into the legitimate Iraqi Security Forces
(ISF). Militias such as that of Sadr are widely blamed for the growing sectarian violence
that has reportedly claimed over 1,000 Iraqi lives since the February 22 bombing of the
Shiite Askariya mosque in Samarra. The Kurds have nominated Talabani to continue as
president, and no challengers to him have emerged to date, but the dispute over Jafari,
coupled with clashes between Sadr militiamen and U.S. forces in March 2006, has
delayed progress on formation of the government. On the other hand, in March 2006,
Iraqi leaders agreed to a U.S. proposal to form an overarching economic and security
council, representing all factions but not provided for in the constitution.
Table 1. Election Results (January and December)
Seats
(Jan. 05)
Seats
(Dec. 05)
March 2006,
attempting to promote comity, Iraqi leaders agreed to a U.S. proposal to form an extraconstitutional economic and security council including all factions.
On April 20, Jafari agreed to step aside, breaking the logjam. On April 22, the
Council of Representatives approved Talabani to continue as president, Abd al-Mahdi to
continue as a deputy president, and another deputy president, Concord Front/IIP leader
Tariq al-Hashimi. Concord Front figure Mahmoud Mashhadani was chosen Council of
Representatives speaker, with deputies Khalid al-Attiya (UIA/Shiite) and Arif Tayfour,
a KDP activist (continuing in that post). For the key post of Prime Minister, senior
Da’wa Party figure Jawad al-Maliki replaced Jafari, his Da’wa boss; Maliki now has 30
days to appoint and obtain Council confirmation of his cabinet. Maliki, who was in exile
in Syria during Saddam’s rule, is considered a decisive, Shiite hardliner who mostly
shares Jafari’s views and has sought to exclude former Baathists from government. He
immediately pledged to rein in Shiite militias that are committing sectarian violence.
Table 1. Election Results (January and December)
Slate/Party
UIA (Shiite Islamist); Sadr formally joined list for Dec. vote
(Of the 128 seats: SCIRI ~ 30; Da’wa ~ 28; Sadr ~ 30; others, remainder)
140
128
Kurdistan Alliance (PUK and KDP)
75
53
Iraqis List (secular, Allawi); added some mostly Sunni parties for Dec. vote
40
25
Iraq Concord Front (Sunni). Main Sunni bloc; not in Jan. vote
—
44
Dialogue National Iraqi Front (Sunni, Saleh al-Mutlak) Not in Jan. vote
—
11
Iraqi National Congress (Chalabi). Was on UIA list in Jan. 05 vote
—
0
Iraqis Party (Yawar, Sunni); Part of Allawi list in Dec. vote
5
—
Iraqi Turkomen Front (Turkomen, Kirkuk-based, pro-Turkey)
3
1
National Independent and Elites Cadre (Jan)/Risalyun (Mission, Dec) Shiite,
pro-Sadr
3
2
People’s Union (Communist, non-sectarian); on Allawi list in Dec. vote
2
—
Kurdistan Islamic Group (Islamist Kurd)
2
5
Islamic Action (Shiite Islamist, Karbala)
2
0
National Democratic Alliance (non-sectarian, secular)
1
—
Rafidain National List (Assyrian Christian)
1
1
Liberation and Reconciliation Gathering (Sunni, secular)
1
3
Slate/Party
Ummah (Nation) Party. (Secular, Mithal al-Alusi, former INC activist)
0
1
Yazidi list (small Kurdish, heterodox religious minority in northern Iraq)
—
Seats
(Jan. 05)
140
Seats
(Dec. 05)
128
75
40
—
—
—
5
3
3
53
25
44
11
0
—
1
2
2
2
2
1
—
5
0
—
1
1
0
—
1
3
1
1