Order Code RS21968
Updated March 11April 7, 2005
CRS Report for Congress
Received through the CRS Web
Iraq: Post-Saddam National ElectionsElections and New Government
Kenneth Katzman
Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs
Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division
Summary
Elections for a transitional National Assembly, provincial councils, and a Kurdish
regional assembly were held on January 30, 2005. High voter turnout in mostly Shiite
and Shiite and
Kurdish areas led to a first- and second -place finishfinishes for slates backed byof these two
communities;, and they are negotiating what appears to be a fragile governing coalition.
Sunni Arabs mostly boycotted. See CRS leading the effort to establish a new government. See CRS
Report RL31339, Iraq: U.S. Regime Change
Efforts and Post-Saddam Governance.
Shortly after Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) deposed Saddam Hussein’s regime in
April 2003, the Bush Administration linked the end of U.S. military occupation to the
completion of a new constitution and the holding of national elections, tasks expected to
take two years. However, prominent Iraqis agitated for a rapid restoration of
sovereignty, and the Bush Administration returned sovereignty to an appointed Iraqi
government on June 28, 2004, with aProminent Iraqis prevailed on the Bush Administration to accelerate the
process, and sovereignty was given to an appointed Iraqi government on June 28, 2004.
A new government and a permanent constitution to
were to be voted on thereafter. The
elections were provided for in a Transitional Administrative
Law (TAL), signed on March
8, 2004. Its provisions aretransition road-map is as follows:1
!
The elections held on January 30, 2005 (within the prescribed time
frame) were for a 275-seat National Assembly; for a provincial assembly
in each of Iraq’s 18 provinces (41 seats each; 51 for Baghdad); and for a
Kurdistan regional assembly (111 seats). Results were released on
February 13, 2005 (see below).
!
Major factions say the elected National Assembly will seat itself on
March 16, and it is to try to select a “presidency council,”consisting of a
are in table below.
!
The TAL specified no deadline for the elected National Assembly to
select an executive. The Assembly is to select a “presidency council”
(a president and two deputy presidents,) by a two-thirds vote. The
presidency council then has two weeksAssembly vote.
The presidency council is, within two weeks, to choose a prime minister by
by consensus, and the Prime Minister then has one month to recommend (to
the presidency council) and obtain Assembly confirmation of his cabinetobtain
Assembly confirmation of his cabinet choices. The Prime Minister and
his cabinet are subject to confirmation by a majority Assembly vote.
Cabinet ministers may be persons not in the Assembly.
1
The text of the TAL can be obtained from the Coalition Provisional Authority website
[http://cpa-iraq.org/government/TAL.html].
Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress
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choices. Cabinet ministers could be persons not elected to the Assembly.
The Prime Minister and his cabinet are subject to confirmation by a
majority vote of the Assembly.
!
The National Assembly is to draft (by August 15, 2005) a constitution to
to be put to a national vote (by October 15, 2005). The TAL allows twothirdsTwo-thirds of the
voters in any three Iraqi provinces tomay veto the constitution,
essentially giving every major community ( essentially
giving Kurds, Sunnis, orand Shiites) a
a veto. If the permanent constitution
is approved, elections for a
permanent government are to occur by
December 15, 2005, and it would
take office by December 31, 2005. If
the constitution is defeated, the
December 15 elections willwould be for a
new transitional National Assembly
and a new draft is to be written and voted on by October 15, 2006.
October 15, 2006. A six-month delay in a constitutional vote is provided
for, which would postpone the transition process by that amount of time.
The Election Process and Planning
In June 2004, the United Nations formed an 8-member central Independent Electoral
Commission of Iraq (IECI), nominated by notables from around Iraq, to run the election
process. CPA ordersOrders 92, 96, and 97, issued just before the June 28, 2004 handover of
sovereignty to an interim governmentsovereignty
handover, provided for voting by proportional representation
(closed list). Under that
system, voters chose among competing “political entities”: a
party, a coalition of parties, or an individual
or individuals running as an independentindependents. Seats in the
National Assembly (and the provincial
assemblies) were allocated in proportion to a
slate’s showing in the voting. Any entity that obtained
at least 1/275 of the vote (about
31,000 votes) obtained a seat. Some criticized this
system as precluding the possibility
of delayed elections in insecure areas and likely to
favor well-established parties.2 Others
said this system was the easiest to administer in a short time frame. .
Under IECI rules, a
woman candidate occupied every third position on electoral lists in
order to meet the
TAL’s goal for at least 25% female membership in the new Assembly.
Under an Iraqi decision announced on November 4, 2004, Iraqis abroad, estimated
at about 1.2 million, were eligible
to vote. The International Organization for Migration
(IOM) was tapped to run the “out-ofoutof-country voting” (OCV) program. U.N. electoral
advisers had opposed OCV because
of the complexity of the task, as well as the expense.
The 14 countries where this in which this
voting took place were Australia, Canada, Denmark, France,
Germany, Iran, Jordan,
Netherlands, Sweden, Syria, Turkey, UAE, Britain, and the United
States.3 About
275,000 Iraqi expatriates (including dual citizens and anyone who can
demonstrate that
their father was Iraqi) registered, and about 90% of them voted.
Inside Iraq, registrationcertification of voters and political entities took place November 1 December1December 15, 2004. Voter lists were based on ration card lists containing about 14
million names; voters needed to be at least 18 years old. Voters did not need to formally
“register” to vote, but they had the opportunity to verify or correct,” but they verified or corrected personal information
on file at 550 food ration
distribution points around Iraq. In some of thethe most restive Sunni
areas, this verification process did not
take place, but voters were able to vote by
presenting valid identification on election day.
Each political entity was required to
obtain 500 signatures from eligible voters and pay
about $5,000. About 5,200 polling centers were established; each center housed several
2
Diamond, Larry. “Not Perfect, But ‘Reasonably Credible.’” Wall Street Journal op.ed. Oct.
25, 2004.
3
For more information on the out-of-country voting, see [http://www.iraqocv.org].
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obtain 500 signatures from eligible voters and pay about $5,000 to be registered. There
were about 5,200 polling centers on election day; each center housed several polling
polling stations. About 6,000 Iraqis staffed the branches of the IECI in each provincearound Iraq, and
200,000 Iraqis staffed polling placesthe polls on election day.
Security, Logistics, and Funding
Whether or not Iraq was secure enough to conduct a legitimate vote was an issue
under nearly constant reviewElection security was an issue under nearly constant review in the months before the
election. Of particular concern were those four provinces
dominated by Sunni Arabs (Anbar, Nineveh, Salahuddin, and
Baghdad) in which
Sunni insurgents have been most active. In December 2004, President
Bush stated that a
postponement would represent a victory for the insurgents and that
elections should
proceed as scheduled. The U.S. commitment to the electioninsistence on the schedule came despite a
a postponement petition in November 2004 by seventeen mainly Sunni Arab parties.
Due to lack of securityinsurgent activity or Sunni Arab (20% of the overall population) perceptions
of inevitable election defeat, campaigning and indications of voter interest were low in
the restive Sunni areas.4 Prior to the election, many members of IECI local branches in
these areas resigned due to insurgent intimidation, although their membership was
replaced. Prior to election day, insurgents repeatedly targeted polling
stations and, in
leaflets and graffiti, threatened to kill anyone who voted. In an effort to
secure restive
cities for the vote, U.S. forces conducted numerous counter-insurgency
operations in the
four months prior to the vote, including a November 2004 operation to
end insurgent
control of Fallujah. U.S. force levels in Iraq rose to 150,000 from the prior
level of about
140 138,000. Braced for the threatened insurgent violence, polling centers were guarded that
on election day by the approximately 130,000 members of Iraq’s security forces, with U.S. forces
close close
by for back-up and quick reaction. Two days prior to election day, all vehicle
traffic was banned, and Iraq’s
borders were closed. Many pollingPolling locations were not
announced until a fewannounced two days prior to election day.
Security concerns also affected the ability of the United Nations to assist Iraq’s
election preparations. Iraqi officials complained that the approximately 100-person U.N.
contingent in Iraq included only 19 election specialists. There were another 12 U.N.
election specialists in Jordan involved in the effort. In an effort to bolster U.N. assistance
to the election, U.S. officials obtained some donors to a protection force for the U.N.
contingent, provided for by U.N. Security Council Resolution 1546 (June 8, 2004). Fiji
deployed 130 troops and Georgia deployed 691 troops. There was also concern over the
vote monitoring process. Canada led a contingent of about 25 observers (“International
Mission for Iraq Elections”) from eleven nations to monitor the Iraq vote. However, the
mission took place in Jordan and was limited to assessing Iraq’s voting procedures by
working with about 50,000 Iraqis who monitored the voting. (One of these international
observers was in Iraq). Another 129 foreign observers — mainly foreign diplomats
posted to Iraq — did some monitoring from Baghdad’s protected “Green Zone.”
Funding. The Bush Administration assisted Iraq in the elections process, as well
as other election-related functions. The Iraqi government budgeted about $250 million
4
Vick, Karl. “Sunni Party Pulls Out of Iraq Vote As Doubts Grow.” Washington Post, Dec. 28,
2004.
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for the elections inside Iraq, of which $130 million was to be offset by international
donors, including about $40 million from the European Union. Out of funds appropriated
in the $18.6 billion for Iraq reconstruction provided by an FY2004 supplemental
appropriation (P.L. 108-106), the United States provided: $40 million to improve the
capacity of the IECI; $42.5 million for elections monitoring by Iraqis; and $40 million
for political party development, through the International Republican Institute and
4
Vick, Karl. “Sunni Party Pulls Out of Iraq Vote as Doubts Grow.” Washington Post, Dec. 28,
2004.
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National Democratic Institute. The funds were apportioned from $832 million provided
by the supplemental for “democracy and governance” for FY2004. The out-of-country
voting cost an additional $92 million, of which $11 million was for the U.S. component.
No U.S. funds were spend for the out-of -country voting.
Election Competition5Competition and Results5
The Iraqi groups that took the most active interest in the elections were primarily
those parties best positioned to win seats: Shiite Islamist parties, the Kurds, and
established secular parties. A total of 111 entities were on the National Assembly ballot:
9 of them were multi-party coalitions, 75 were single political parties, and 27 were
individuals. The 111 entities contained over 7,000 candidates. Another 9,000 candidates,
also organized into party slates, competed in the provincial and Kurdish elections.
The most prominent slate, was the “United Iraqi Alliance” (UIA), was brokered by Grand
Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and his top aides, includingsuch as former nuclear scientist Hussein
Shahristani. Sistani himself, who is, Iraq’s supremeforemost Shiite leader, was not a candidate.
The 228-candidate The 228candidate UIA slate consisted of 22 parties, clearlybut dominated by two large Shiite
Islamist Islamist
parties, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and the
Da’wa
Party. Both, but particularly SCIRI, are considered politically close to Tehran.
The first
candidate on the UIAthis slate was SCIRI leader Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim, who was
in exile in Iran during the 1980s-1990s
during 1980-2003. Da’wa leader Ibrahim Jafari, currently a Vice
President, was number seven. In the tenth
position was secular Shiite Ahmad Chalabi,
a former U.S. ally who has aligned his secular Iraqi National Congress (INC) with the
Islamist Shiiteshimself
with the Shiite Islamists. There were 14 supporters of radical young Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr
alSadr on the slate, buteven though Sadr’s top aides, apparently with his backing, publicly
denounced the
election as an illegitimate product of U.S. occupation. In an effort to include all of Iraq’s
various communitiesbe
inclusive, the UIA slate included some non-Islamist Shiites, Sunni tribalists
(about 30
Sunnis total on this slate), and Turkoman and Yazidi ethnic and religious
minority minority
candidates. Pro-Sadr Shiites also formed a competing slate, the National
Independent competed separately as the “National Independent
Elites and Cadres,” list and competed in provincial elections.
Other large slates consisted of long-established parties. The two main Kurdish
parties,
the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party
(KDP) put
aside lingering rivalries to offer a joint 165-candidate list (“Kurdish Alliance”). Interim
Prime Minister Iyad al-Allawi filed a six-party, 233-candidate slate (“the Iraqi List”) led
by his Iraqi National Accord (INA) party. His list included tribal leaders and some
secular Sunni and Shiite independents. The Communist Party, headed by former Iraq
5
A detailed discussion of many of these competing groups is contained in CRS Report RL31339,
Iraq: U.S. Regime Change Efforts and Post-Saddam Governance. Some of the information in
the section comes from CRS conversations with experts and U.S. officials.
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Governing Council member Hamid al-Musa, Hamid al-Musa,
filed a 257-candidate slate called the
“People’s Union.” Smaller parties that included both Sunnis and Shiites, also competed. “People’s Union.”
Some Sunni-based Arab parties competed, but others did not. An 80-candidate slate was
offered by interim President Ghazi al-Yawar, a Sunni tribal figure who formed the “Iraqis
Party.”
Adnan Pachachi, a Sunni elder statesman who heads the Iraqi Independent
Democrats,
offered a slate consisting mostly of professionals. A pro-monarchist slate of the
the Movement for Constitutional Monarchy (MCM) was mostly Sunni as well. A moderate
moderate Islamist group, the Iraqi Islamic Party of former Governing Council member Muhsin Abd
al-Hamid, filed a 275-Muhsin Abd al-Hamid, filed a 275-
5
A detailed discussion of many of these competing groups is contained in CRS Report RL31339,
Iraq: U.S. Regime Change Efforts and Post-Saddam Governance. Some of the information in
the section comes from CRS conversations with experts and U.S. officials.
CRS-5
seat slate, but it withdrew from the election in December 2004.
The Iraqi Muslim
Clerics’ Association, which is said to be close to the insurgents, did not
compete and
called for a Sunni boycott. Some Sunni groups whothat boycotted the National
Assembly Assembly
contest nonetheless participated in the provincial assembly elections.
The Vote, Results, and Post-Election Bargaining
The voting itself was conducted relatively smoothly. Insurgents conducted about 160
attacks, killing about 30 Iraqis, but no polling stations were overrun, and Shiite and
Kurdish voters appeared mostly undeterred. Total turnout was about 58% (about 8.5
million votes). After the polls closed, President Bush said “In great numbers and under
great risk, Iraqis have shown their commitment to democracy.... The Iraqi people,
themselves, made this election a resounding success.” World reaction was favorable,
including from governments, such as France and Germany, that have criticized U.S. Iraq
policy. Members of Congress widely praised the vote.
National Assembly results, contained in a table below, appeared to match many
predictions. In provincial elections, the Kurds won about 60% of the seats in Tamim
(Kirkuk) province (26 out of 41 seats); Sunni Arabs hold 6 and Turkomens hold 9 seats.
This is strengtheninghas strengthened Kurdish attempts to gain control of oil-rich city of Kirkuk and
provoking some Arab and Turkmen backlash. In a result that could divide the Shiite
Islamists, Propro-Sadr candidates won pluralities or majorities in several Shiite provinces,
including Wasit, Dhi Qar, and Maysan, while SCIRI (running separately) won in Najaf,
Karbala, Qadisiyah, and Muthana provinces.
Post-Election Government
The election results triggered intensive factional bargaining over positions in the
new transition new
government and the future direction of Iraq. The UIA has insisted, on the
strength of its showing,insisted that one of its leaders become prime
minister; that post will have
has executive power in this transitionthe new government. The bloc has named settled on
Da’wa leader
Ibrahim Jafari as its choice. The Kurds, based on their strong results, are insisting that
insisted that PUK leader Jalal Talabani become president. However, even more important
to the
Kurds than Talabani are Kurds were guarantees that they willwould have substantial autonomy, control over
resources, and be able to incorporate the oil rich citythe incorporation of Kirkuk, which has a large Kurdish
population, into the
Kurdish-administered areas in northern Iraq. These demands formed
the basis of two
months of hard bargaining between the two blocs — and between them and various
Sunni groups and Allawi’s bloc. Press reports suggest that the major blocs agreed to
defer some of these key issues, although it appears that the Kurds are assured of gaining
eventual control of Kirkuk. The blocs reportedly agreed that oil revenues would be
distributed “evenly,” but that “special attention” would be given to those groups, such as
Kurds and Shiite Arabs, that received a disproportionately small share of government
largesse during the regime of Saddam Hussein. The blocs also apparently agreed that
their militia forces would largely be allowed to continue to operate under party rather than
national control. In part to satisfy the mostly secular Kurds, Jafari and other UIA leaders
have said they will not try to establish a state run by clerics and Islamic law. The groups
began establishing the new government on April 3. The positions filled thus far are:
!
Assembly speaker Hajim al-Hassani (a Sunni Arab who ran on Ghazi
Yawar’s list) and two deputies — Arif Tayfour, a Kurd and Sistani aide
Shahristani. Both were voted in on April 3.
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!
The presidency council was voted on April 6. Talabani was selected
president, and the two deputies selected were SCIRI’s Adel Abd alMahdi and Ghazi al-Yawar. They were sworn in on April 7.
!
After its swearing in, the presidency council nominated Ibrahim al-Jafari
as Prime Minister; Allawi’s interim government resigned. He is expected
to receive the majority vote needed when the Assembly next meets, and
he has said he will name a cabinet within about one week. Press reports
say there are still differences over some major cabinet seats, particularly
over who will become oil minister. Press reports say that a Sunni Arab
will be named defense minister, a Kurd will be foreign minister, and
Shiites will be named interior minister and finance minister.
A key issue is the disposition of the Sunni Arabs, who hold only about 14 seats in
the new Assembly. Most U.S. officials appear to believe that the insurgency will wither
if Sunni Arabs who have backed or had ties to the insurgency enter the new power
structure. The most important of these is the Iraqi Muslim Clerics Association (MCA).
Some MCA members have questioned whether the Sunni boycott of the election was wise
and have expressed interest in the constitutional drafting process. However, no MCA
member has expressed a willingness to take a cabinet position, if offered.
National Assembly Election Results
Slate/Party
Number of Seats
UIA (Shiite Islamist). About of hard bargaining between the Kurds and the UIA over the past few weeks, but
press reports on March 11 say the two groups have reached a tentative agreement on these
issues that will enable them to form a government shortly after the transitional Assembly
meets on March 16. However, the agreement appears to be preliminary, and there are
still differences over the number of other senior positions allotted to each bloc, and to the
Sunni Arabs, as well as the firmness of UIA promises to meet Kurdish demands. Press
reports say the UIA leaders have agreed to “discussions” or to a process of “consensus”
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decisionmaking on such issues as the status of Kirkuk; some Kurds might want concrete
promises of the outcome before finalizing any agreement with the UIA.
A key issue is the disposition of the Sunni Arabs, who hold very few seats in the new
Assembly. Most U.S. officials appear to believe that the elections will have a lasting
positive effect if Sunni Arabs enter the new power structure. UIA and Kurdish leaders
have said they will include Sunni Arabs in the cabinet posts and the committee that will
draft the permanent constitution; some reports say Sunnis will get at least one of the major
ministries, such as defense, interior, oil, or finance. UIA leaders have also said they will
not try to establish a state run by clerics and Islamic law. Some major Sunni
organizations, including the Iraqi Islamic Party and, to a lesser extent, the Iraqi Muslim
Clerics Association (MCA), have expressed interest in the constitutional drafting process.
However, the MCA has set firm conditions for its participation, including a time-table
for a U.S. withdrawal, a condition unlikely to be met. Stability is likely to be difficult to
achieve if major Sunni organizations do not come into the power structure; the Sunni-led
insurgency remains at roughly pre-election levels, and it is increasingly targeting Shiite
civilians, possibly as retribution for the Shiites’ new place at the apex of Iraq’s postSaddam power structure.
Election Results
Slate/Party
Number of Seats
UIA (Shiite Islamist), about 58% of vote; Shiite turnout 75%
140
Kurdistan Alliance. About 26% of vote; Kurdish turnout 90%
75
Iraqis List (Allawi). About 14% of vote.
40
Iraqis Party (Yawar, Sunni). 1.8% of vote. Sunni turnout less
than 10%
5
Iraqi Turkomen Front (Turkomen, mostly in/around Kirkuk,
Kirkuk-based, pro-Turkey
3
National Independent and Elites Cadre (pro-Sadr)
3
People’s Union (Communist, Sunni/Shiite)
2
Kurdistan Islamic Group (Islamist Kurd)
2
Islamic Action (Shiite Islamist, Karbala)
2
National Democratic Alliance (secular)
1
Rafidain National List (Assyrian Christian)
1
Liberation and Reconciliation Gathering (secular)
1