INSIGHTi

Mexico’s 2024 Elections
May 7, 2024
On June 2, 2024, Mexico, a top U.S. trade and strategic partner, is scheduled to convene elections for
more than 20,000 federal, state, and local offices, including the presidency, the entire congress (Senate
and Chamber of Deputies), and eight governorships. The leading presidential candidates offer voters a
choice on whether to elect President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s chosen successor, Claudia
Sheinbaum, or the opposition alliance candidate, Xóchitl Gálvez, who has pledged to implement policy
changes in several areas. Either candidate, if elected, would be Mexico’s first female president.
The 118th Congress has undertaken various legislative and oversight initiatives related to issues involving
cross-border cooperation with Mexico, fentanyl trafficking, migration, and continued implementation of
the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Members may wish to assess the election’s
results and their implications for ongoing cooperation on these and other issues in U.S.-Mexico relations.
Electoral System and Context
Mexico’s 2024 elections are to be the largest in the country’s history. The president is to be elected by
plurality vote and is scheduled to assume power on October 1, 2024. In the legislative contests, voters are
to elect 128 senators and 500 members of congress (deputies). Mexico’s constitution limits presidents to a
single six-year term but allows nonconsecutive reelection to the Mexican congress.
The legacy of outgoing President López Obrador is likely to loom over the 2024 elections. Although some
of his actions as president have stoked controversy, López Obrador has maintained approval ratings above
60% and overseen the transformation of his party, the left-leaning National Regeneration Movement
(MORENA), into the dominant force in Mexican politics, replacing the centrist Institutional
Revolutionary Party (PRI). MORENA currently holds a plurality of seats in the lower chamber, a majority
of seats in the Senate, and 21 of 32 governorships. López Obrador’s popularity appears to stem from his
policies to improve living standards for poor and working-class Mexicans and his populist approach to
politics, which emphasizes direct communication with the Mexican people.
Critics have accused López Obrador of attempting to weaken independent government institutions and the
judiciary. For example, López Obrador proposed reforms that would have reduced the staff, authorities,
and independence of the electoral authority and electoral court, aiming to reduce costs and fraud. The
Mexican supreme court subsequently blocked most of those reforms.
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CRS INSIGHT
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This electoral season is on track to be the most violent in Mexico’s history. As of May 1, 2024, 29
candidates, mostly at the local level, had been slain. Some observers assert that Mexico’s drug cartels
engage in political violence, especially at the local level, to intimidate politicians, discourage voter
turnout, and install candidates they can influence. According to one expert, Mexican “criminal groups
increasingly shape ... who can run ... and who will be a successful candidate.”
Presidential Candidates
The leading presidential candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, is a former mayor of Mexico City (2018-2023)
and longtime ally of President López Obrador. Her MORENA-led coalition includes the Labor Party (PT)
and the Green Ecological Party (PVEM). Sheinbaum, who has led the polls since the campaign began in
March, has largely pledged to continue López Obrador’s policies (see Figure 1). Some analysts assess
that her reported pragmatism as mayor and scientific background could lead her to diverge from López
Obrador on some issues. For example, Sheinbaum may seek private investment in renewable energy.
Other analysts assert that Sheinbaum’s candidacy derives much of its popularity from López Obrador’s
political base and he could continue to influence her administration.
Xóchitl Gálvez, a technology entrepreneur and former senator of Indigenous descent, is the candidate of
the opposition coalition. Gálvez has united an ideologically diverse coalition, comprising the PRI,
conservative National Action Party (PAN), and center-left Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD).
Gálvez has signaled she would pursue more market-oriented economic policies, defend Mexico’s
independent institutions, and remove the military from policing and other civilian tasks, while
maintaining current social programs.
Jorge Álvarez Máynez, a former congressman and candidate of the leftist Citizens’ Movement (MC), is
polling at a distant third place. Polls suggest he struggles with name recognition, but his advocacy of the
legalization of certain drugs and viral social media campaign has resonated with Mexico’s youth.
Figure 1. Aggregated Polling on Mexico’s Presidential Race

Source: CRS, using data from Oraculus, Elección Presidencial 2024, https://oraculus.mx/presidente2024/, accessed May 6,
2024.
Notes: Percentage totals do not sum to 100% due to rounding.

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Implications for U.S. Policy and Congress
Congress may monitor Mexico’s June 2024 presidential electoral process, the president-elect’s positions,
and the size of the president-elect’s support base in the Mexican congress, all of which are likely to shape
the U.S.-Mexico bilateral relationship. Congress also may consider strengthening direct ties with the new
Mexican congress through bilateral fora, such as the Mexico-United States Interparliamentary Group,
created through H.J.Res 283 in 1960.
Presidential candidates Sheinbaum and Gálvez have expressed willingness to work with the next U.S.
Administration on efforts to manage irregular migration, even as they have staked out their own positions
on the issue. Sheinbaum has advocated for greater economic investment in countries of origin, whereas
Gálvez has indicated she would seek more U.S. funding to help Mexico support migrants transiting
through its territory. It is unclear whether either candidate would be willing to cooperate with a
resumption of U.S. policies such as the Migrant Protection Protocols that seek to transfer foreign
nationals seeking asylum in the United States to Mexico.
The Mexican election also may affect bilateral collaboration on security and commercial matters. After
years of tensions on counterdrug efforts under the outgoing administration, Gálvez has advocated for
enhanced cooperation with the United States to combat the trafficking of arms, people, and drugs,
including fentanyl. It is unclear how Sheinbaum, who has suggested fentanyl is primarily a public health
issue, would approach U.S.-Mexico counternarcotics cooperation. With regard to commercial
cooperation, Sheinbaum supports Mexico’s current state-led approach to energy development, whereas
Gálvez would welcome private investment in Mexico’s energy sector. Some Members of Congress have
urged the Biden Administration to address Mexico’s energy policies, which they argue are discriminatory
and undermine the USMCA.

Author Information

Joshua Klein
Clare Ribando Seelke
Analyst in Foreign Affairs
Specialist in Latin American Affairs





Disclaimer
This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan shared staff
to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and under the direction of
Congress. Information in a CRS Report should not be relied upon for purposes other than public understanding of
information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in connection with CRS’s institutional role.
CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not subject to copyright protection in the United
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