Guatemala: 2023 Elections and U.S. Interests
Karla I. Rios
Analyst in Latin American Affairs
June 16, 2023
On June 25, 2023, Guatemala is scheduled to hold national elections for president, the entire 160-seat
congress, 340 mayors, 20 Central American parliament members, and other local posts. Almost 83% of
Guatemalans surveyed responded that the political situation in Guatemala has gotten worse in 2023, and
many expressed pessimism about the election. The outcome of these elections could have implications for
U.S. interests in Guatemala and U.S.-Guatemalan cooperation in addressing key challenges, such as
migration, corruption, and human rights, that are of long-standing congressional interest.
Figure 1.Guatemala Election Timeline
Sources. CRS, based on information from Human Rights Watch and La Prensa Libre.
Presidential and Congressional Elections
President Alejandro Giammattei (2020-present) is nearing the end of his four-year term and is
constitutionally ineligible for reelection. During his term, the U.S. government has taken action to stem
Guatemala’s backsliding on corruption and the rule of law under President Giammattei.
Some 25 presidential candidates are running to succeed President Giammattei. As of early June 2023,
Guatemala’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) had suspended three presidential candidates and one vice
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presidential candidate (see “2023 Electoral Suspensions”). Among the remaining contenders, leading
candidates, in order of polling popularity, include
• Sandra Torres, former first lady to former President Álvaro Colom (2008-2012), of the
centrist Partido Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza;
• Edmond Mulet, retired diplomat, of the center- to center-right Cabal party; and
• Zury Ríos, daughter of former military dictator Efraín Ríos Montt (1982-1983), of the
right-wing Partido Unionista.
If no presidential candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, a runoff between the top two finishers is
to take place on August 20, 2023. Since the end of the Guatemalan civil war in 1996, no president has
won a first-round victory.
In June 2023, Guatemala is set to also elect 160 congressional deputies. Unlike presidents, deputies may
run for reelection. In this election cycle, roughly 78% of deputies are seeking reelection and more than
half have changed political parties since the last elections in 2019.
2023 Electoral Suspensions
The TSE is an important part of Guatemala’s democracy, as it organizes all electoral contests and enforces
the country’s electoral rules. Since January 2023, the TSE has rejected and suspended roughly 8% of
candidacies; several of those suspensions have been controversial.
In March 2023, the TSE rejected the candidacies of Maya Indigenous candidate Thelma Cabrera and her
running mate, former human rights ombudsman Jordán Rodas, of the left-wing Moviemiento para la
Liberacíon de los Pueblos party, over a criminal complaint against Rodas presented by the current
ombudsperson. Cabrera and Rodas are both well-known anti-corruption activists. The TSE also rejected
the candidacy of Roberto Arzú, son of former President Álvaro Arzú (1996-2000) and presidential
nominee of the right-wing Podemos party, for campaigning prior to the start of the 2023 campaign.
In May 2023, the TSE suspended the candidacy of Carlos Pineda of the center-right Prosperidad
Ciuadana party due to “noncompliance with rules governing the nomination process, such as the failure
to collect signatures from party delegates and file a required financial report.” Pineda was leading the
polls at the time of his suspension. Pineda appealed, but the Guatemalan Supreme Court rejected that
appeal.
The European Union and human rights organizations have repeatedly expressed concerns about the TSE’s
decisions and their potential to undermine the competitiveness of the electoral process. Some observers
argue the TSE has suspended candidates on dubious and inconsistent grounds. For example, in 2019, the
TSE rejected Zury Ríos’s registration, citing a constitutional prohibition against coup leaders and their
relatives seeking public office. This cycle, the TSE accepted her candidacy.
Thousands of voters have protested against the TSE leading up to the June 25 elections.
Election Observation Missions
Several international and local organizations are observing Guatemala’s elections to assess whether they
are free and fair. These observation missions include the following:
• European Union Election Observation Mission
• Organization of American States Mission
• Guatemala’s Mission of Electoral Observation (MOE-Gt)
MOE-Gt has issued statements characterizing the progress of the Guatemalan elections and highlighting
anomalies related to the TSE and the need to preserve Guatemala’s already fragile democracy.
Issues for Congress
U.S. officials and some Members of Congress are closely following the integrity of the Guatemalan
elections and the policy positions endorsed by the leading candidates. The elections, and their perceived
legitimacy, could have significant implications for U.S. policy. Elections the public perceives to be less
than free and fair could spark additional protests and exacerbate social and political instability in
Guatemala. The election results also may determine the extent to which the next Guatemalan government
is willing to cooperate with the United States to address corruption, transnational crime, irregular
migration, and other issues.
If newly elected Guatemalan officials prove hesitant to address such concerns, Congress could consider a
range of responses.
Congress may consider additional legislative measures intended to support democracy and the rule of law
in Guatemala. For example, Congress could consider reauthorizing or modifying the United States-
Northern Triangle Enhanced Engagement Act (P.L. 116-260, Division FF, Subtitle F), which directs the
State Department to impose visa sanctions on individuals who engage in significant corruption or
undermine democratic processes or institutions. This sanctions authority is scheduled to expire in
December 2023.
Congress also could consider whether to scale back support to the Guatemalan government. The
Department of State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Appropriations Act, 2023 (P.L. 117-328,
Division K), requires the State Department to withhold 60% of Economic Support Fund and security
assistance to Guatemala until the Secretary of State certifies that the Guatemalan government has met a
series of conditions related to the rule of law, human rights, and migration, among other issues. The State
Department reprogrammed some FY2021 assistance to other countries, citing the Guatemalan
government’s failure to meet similar criteria, and has yet to issue certifications for FY2022 or FY2023.
Congress may assess the postelection situation as it considers President Biden’s $164.5 million FY2024
foreign assistance request for Guatemala and any conditions on such assistance.
Author Information
Karla I. Rios
Analyst in Latin American Affairs
Disclaimer
This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan shared staff
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