INSIGHTi

Debt Limit Policy Questions: How Long Do
Extraordinary Measures Last?
Updated May 2, 2023
On January 19, 2023, Treasury Secretary Yellen began implementation of “extraordinary measures” to
prevent a binding debt limit as debt neared the current limit of $31.4 trillion. Federal debt subject to the
statutory limit (codified at 31 U.S.C. §3101) cannot legally exceed that limit. This Insight examines the
factors that influence how long extraordinary measures can prevent a debt limit from binding and
summarizes the outlook for the 2023 debt limit episode.
What Are Extraordinary Measures?
Extraordinary measures are actions the Treasury Secretary uses to delay a binding debt limit. Two
provisions in statute—5 U.S.C. §8348 and 5 U.S.C. §8909—authorize extraordinary measures. These
measures have been regularly invoked in recent years. The Secretary regularly provides detailed
descriptions of extraordinary measures upon implementation. Recently, these measures have included
suspension of debt issuances to certain federal retirement accounts and for state and local government
securities. Once lawmakers raise or suspend the debt limit and extraordinary measures end, Treasury must
compensate any impacted federal accounts for their lost savings. Treasury may also adjust the operating
cash balance in its general account in response to a debt limit episode, though that is a regular financial
management tool rather than an extraordinary measure. For more background on extraordinary measures,
see CRS Insight IN10837, “Extraordinary Measures” and the Debt Limit.
Variation in Extraordinary Measures Endurance
The length of time between implementation of extraordinary measures and their projected exhaustion is a
function of several factors, including legislative changes that affect the deficit, the timing of federal
receipts, and the timing of federal outlays. Which extraordinary measures Treasury uses can change over
time in response to changes in federal statute (and how the Administration interprets relevant statutes).
The debt room that each measure provides also shifts for reasons specific to the measure and underlying
account. Descriptions of recent extraordinary measures suggest that the extraordinary measures used and
the debt room provided by those measures have been relatively constant in recent years.
The amount of time it takes to exhaust extraordinary measures depends not only on how much debt room
those measures provide, but also on how quickly the federal debt subject to the limit is rising. All else
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equal, higher net federal deficits will translate to faster increases in debt subject to limit, which can be
caused by general decline in economic performance, legislative changes that increase outlays or decrease
revenues, or other factors. Intragovernmental debt, or debt one part of the government owes another part
(typically that the general fund owes trust funds), also contributes to debt subject to the limit, though it
does not contribute to debt held by the public because it is not owed to an outside creditor. Changes in
intragovernmental debt therefore also lead to changes in federal debt subject to limit, even if those
changes do not reflect shifts in what the government owes to other financial actors.
The speed at which the federal debt grows is also affected by short-term variation in federal budget
outcomes (e.g., surpluses and deficits) across months, as shown in Figure 1. Much of that variation
results from the timing of tax receipts from federal income tax returns.
Figure 1. Average Monthly Federal Budget Outcomes, FY1997-FY2023
(in billions of FY2023 dollars)

Source: U.S. Treasury and OMB. Calculations performed by CRS.
Notes: Positive values represent surpluses; negative values represent deficits.
Payments and collections for many federal programs are also made on certain days of the week or month,
which can lead to daily fluctuations that are very difficult to predict as extraordinary measures near
exhaustion.
Table 1 shows the projected endurance of extraordinary measures in every implementation period since
2011. Recent experiences illustrate that while seasonal patterns and fluctuations in general debt
acquisition are somewhat helpful in determining the endurance of extraordinary measures, the context
around each experience is highly influential in determining the ultimate effectiveness of extraordinary
measures in preventing a debt limit from binding.
Table 1. Projected Endurance of Extraordinary Measures, 2011-Present
Invocation
Annual Growth in Debt
Latest Projected
Date
Subject to Limit (% of GDP)
Endurance (Months)
January 2023
7.0%
4.6
August 2021
7.5%
2.5

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Invocation
Annual Growth in Debt
Latest Projected
Date
Subject to Limit (% of GDP)
Endurance (Months)
March 2019
5.7%
6.9
December 2017
6.2%
2.9
March 2017
3.5%
6.3
March 2015
2.8%
7.7
February 2014
6.2%
0.5
May 2013
4.3%
4.9
December 2012
4.0%
1.9
May 2011
8.0%
2.6
Source: U.S. Treasury, OMB, and CBO. Calculations performed by CRS.
Notes: Table uses a weighted average of annual debt subject to limit values in cases where extraordinary
measures stretched across multiple fiscal years. Endurance projection taken from the last publication issued by
either U.S. Treasury or CBO.
Extraordinary Measures in 2023
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen began implementing extraordinary measures on January 19, 2023, as
federal debt subject to limit approached the statutory debt limit of $31.4 trillion. A May 1, 2023, letter to
Congress stated that “our best estimate is that we will be unable to continue to satisfy all of the
government’s obligations by early June, potentially as early as June 1.” A May 1, 2023, CBO blog post
also projected extraordinary measures exhaustion in early June. Projections from CBO and Treasury
earlier in 2023, along with a Moody’s Analytics estimate in March, had forecasted that such measures
would last one to three months longer than current estimates predict. Such estimates are inherently
uncertain, as each of these forecasts emphasizes.
Relative to other periods of extraordinary measure implementation, debt subject to limit is rising quickly
this fiscal year (as shown in Table 1). That increase was mitigated somewhat by a high operating cash
balance at Treasury when extraordinary measures were first implemented (consistent with Treasury’s
approach in the last few years) and the proximity to income tax return season. For more on extraordinary
measures and debt in 2023, see CRS Insight IN12149, Structure of Federal Debt and Extraordinary
Measures.

Author Information

Grant A. Driessen
Brendan McDermott
Specialist in Public Finance
Analyst in Public Finance





Disclaimer

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