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Updated September 23, 2022
Pakistan’s 2022 Floods and Implications for U.S. Interests
Overview
In mid-June 2022, at the beginning of monsoon season,
Figure 1. Homes Damaged in Pakistan’s 2022 Flooding
heavy rains began flooding areas of Pakistan. Estimates
(as of September 15, 2022)
range from double to several times the normal monsoon
rainfall. By late August, flooding had worsened to historic
and catastrophic levels, reportedly affecting more than 33
million people, injuring nearly 13,000 and killing more than
1,600. With more than one-third of the country reportedly
submerged, housing, infrastructure, and livelihoods are
negatively affected, and agricultural losses appear to be
extensive. Pakistan’s government has estimated the cost of
flood damage at $30 billion and cut its projected annual
economic growth for its fiscal year ending June 2023.
Successive U.S. Administrations have described a stable,
democratic, and prosperous Pakistan as critical to U.S.
interests. This situation may have U.S. security
implications. Responding to this disaster is taxing a
Pakistani government already struggling with political
Source: U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
upheaval, worsening economic and debt crises, unsettled
civil-military relations, and rising public discontent.
Humanitarian Needs
Regional stability and efforts to counter militancy and
Pakistan’s affected populations are in need of relief
terrorism are among U.S. concerns; both may face negative
supplies, including shelter, food, and water, sanitation, and
impacts from the current situation. For example, following
hygiene (WASH). Experts say that floods are likely to
2010 flooding, some banned Pakistani terrorist groups
exacerbate food availability across the country, particularly
reportedly were at the forefront of rural relief efforts and
for those already experiencing food insecurity. The United
may gain popular support through such activities;
Nations (U.N.) estimates that 7.6 million people have been
Pakistan’s government denies any banned groups are
displaced, some of whom have taken refuge in official
involved in flood relief in 2022. Congress may consider
Government of Pakistan displacement sites. The United
whether or not U.S. assistance in response to the
Nations also reports that, of those displaced, many are
catastrophic floods would serve U.S. interests, including
staying as close to their homes and the affected areas as
economic and security objectives.
possible due to concerns that lack of land ownership
documentation could prevent future returns. In many
Flood Damage—Initial Assessments
affected areas the humanitarian response has been
Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority
hampered by damaged roads and bridges. Humanitarian
(NDMA) is the lead federal agency for disaster relief
organizations assert that maternal health and protection
coordination, including relief operations supported by
from gender-based violence are also of concern, as well as
Pakistan’s army, navy, and air force. The provinces of
an increased risk of vector-borne disease (such as malaria)
Sindh and Balochistan appear most affected (see Figure 1).
and water-borne disease (including diarrhea and cholera)
As of September 23, 2022, the NDMA is reporting the
along with threats from venomous wildlife such as
following damage due to flooding since June 14, 2022:
poisonous snakes. The floods also may exacerbate
preexisting outbreaks of coronavirus disease (COVID-19)
1,606 persons killed (45% Sindh, 19% Balochistan, 19% and other medical conditions, particularly as vaccine
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa or KP, 12% Punjab) and 12,863
campaigns are suspended and access to care is limited.
injured;
National and International Responses
Affected population: more than 33 million (44% Sindh,
Government of Pakistan. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif
28% Balochistan, 13% KP, 15% Punjab);
established a National Flood Response and Coordination
Livestock deaths: more than 1 million (50+%
Center to facilitate a multiagency response in coordination
Balochistan, 32% Sindh);
with the NDMA. The government established camps for
populations displaced by the floods. Pakistan is providing
Damaged homes: more than 2 million (88% Sindh);
cash assistance to those affected, while provincial
Damaged roads: more than 8,100 miles (64% Sindh);
governments may redirect development funds to flood
damaged bridges: 392 (42% Sindh, 27% KP).
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Pakistan’s 2022 Floods and Implications for U.S. Interests
relief. It also has verified several fund-raising agencies on
Poor governance and planning, and lack of political will,
the GoFundMe website.
also might contribute to Pakistan’s vulnerability to floods.
Inadequate water management likely played a role.
International Responses. On August 30, 2022, the United
Following the 2010 floods, the government reportedly
Nations issued a Flash Humanitarian Appeal for $160
failed to implement plans that would have reduced the
million to support an Islamabad-led “Pakistan 2022 Floods
consequences of future floods by preventing rebuilding in
Response,” of which 37% has been funded to date. The
and repopulating of flood-prone areas. Laws barring
appeal identifies 5.2 million people particularly in urgent
construction too close to river banks apparently were
need of humanitarian assistance, including “food, water,
widely violated. Current political divisions in Pakistan may
sanitation, emergency education, protection and health
complicate federal-provincial coordination.
support.” On a recent visit to Pakistan, the U.N. Secretary-
General called for “massive” international support.
In his September 21 address to the U.N. General Assembly,
International relief agencies have launched separate funding
President Joe Biden singled out Pakistan’s disaster as an
appeals. International financial institutions reportedly have
example of the “human cost of climate change.” The U.N.
pledged funds for Pakistan disaster relief and development,
Secretary-General and Pakistan’s prime minister are among
with the majority coming from the World Bank.
those positing a causal link between climate change and
recent flooding. Some analyses see Pakistan as especially
U.S. Response to Pakistan’s Floods
vulnerable to climate-related extreme weather events. A
In mid-August 2022, the U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan
2021 report by the World Bank and the Asian Development
issued a disaster declaration and, on September 2, the U.S.
Bank identified as a major concern the uncertainty of a
Agency for International Development (USAID) deployed a
warming climate’s changes to glacial melt and extreme
Disaster Assistance Response Team to Pakistan to assess
precipitation. A rapid, non-peer-reviewed September 2022
the impact of the floods. A Response Management Team
“attribution” study suggested that “climate change could
based in Washington, DC, is coordinating U.S. government
have increased the rainfall intensity” in Pakistan in recent
flood response efforts. As of September 22, the U.S.
months, among several factors that experts identify as
government had provided more than $48 million in
contributing to the event. A June 2022 U.N. report on
humanitarian assistance for “food support, safe water,
“Pathways to Adaptation and Resilience” projects that, in a
sanitation and hygiene improvements, financial help, and
“worst-case climate change scenario,” Pakistan could
shelter assistance” ($20 million of which was announced by
realize average annual economic losses equal to more than
USAID Administrator Power in Islamabad on September
9% of its GDP. Yale University’s 2022 Environmental
9). Earlier in FY2022, USAID also provided $3 million in
Performance Index gave Pakistan an overall ranking of
Early Recovery, Risk Reduction, and Resilience funding.
176th of 180 countries, including 175th in “climate change
On September 8, the Department of Defense U.S. Central
mitigation” (reduction of greenhouse gas emissions). Going
Command began air operations to transport USAID relief
forward, Pakistan may join other developing nations in
supplies from USAID’s Dubai warehouse to Pakistan to
pushing to establish international funding for natural
support USAID-led humanitarian response operations.
disasters that they say are caused by climate change.
In addition to humanitarian assistance, bilateral U.S.
Issues for Congress
development aid to Pakistan—estimated at $71 million for
For over a decade, Congress annually has enacted security-
FY2022, with $84 million requested for FY2023—is
and human rights-related conditions on bilateral aid to
expected to continue, including over $1 million in grants
Pakistan. Congress may consider whether and if so, how to
and project support provided earlier in August, and with
address the crisis in Pakistan through humanitarian or more
programs adapting, in part, to address the long-term impact
strategic long-term assistance amid unprecedented global
of the 2022 floods.
humanitarian need and competing priorities. Congress
could consider whether the United States should provide
Environmental and Governance Issues
humanitarian assistance through multilateral channels such
Pakistan suffers from environmental and governance
as the United Nations or nongovernmental implementing
challenges that potentially worsen natural disasters,
partners, and also monitor how the executive branch
including flooding. A World Bank Vulnerability
allocates such assistance. Bilateral development activities
Assessment found that “Pakistan faces some of the highest
could be aligned more closely with U.S. objectives in
disaster risk levels in the world.” In mid-2010, the country
Pakistan and also channeled through the government. For
experienced the most catastrophic flooding in its history
all U.S. support, Congress could conduct oversight of the
until then, a disaster that officially killed more than 1,700
delivery challenges encountered, including access and
persons, affected more than 20% of the land area and 20
security conditions in Pakistan, which could undermine the
million people, and caused billions of dollars in damage.
effectiveness of humanitarian operations and development
According to a Scientific American assessment later that
aid; and/or assess the flood disaster responses of the
year, the scale of that flooding was “made worse by a
Islamabad government and international donors so as to
history of deforestation and land-use changes in the affected
improve disaster preparedness and prevention activities,
areas.” Analysts estimate that Pakistan’s tree cover has
and to reduce the harm caused by future flood events.
decreased by at least 80% since its 1947 independence. The
annual rate of forest loss in Pakistan in the last three
K. Alan Kronstadt, Specialist in South Asian Affairs
decades is one of the highest in Asia, according data
Rhoda Margesson, Specialist in International
compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization.
Humanitarian Policy
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Pakistan’s 2022 Floods and Implications for U.S. Interests
IF12211
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