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September 12, 2022
Pakistan’s 2022 Floods and Implications for U.S. Interests
Overview
Damaged roads: more than 4,100 miles (39% Sindh,
In mid-June 2022, at the beginning of monsoon season,
24% KP, 23% Balochistan); damaged bridges: 269
heavy rains began flooding areas of Pakistan. Estimates
(40% KP, 26% Gilgit-Baltistan, 23% Sindh).
range from double to several times the normal monsoon
rainfall. By late August, flooding had worsened to historic
Figure 1. Homes Damaged in Pakistan’s 2022 Flooding
and catastrophic levels, reportedly affecting more than 33
(as of September 1, 2022)
million people, injuring at least 13,000 and killing more
than 1,300. With more than one-third of the country
reportedly submerged, agricultural losses appear to be
extensive, affecting housing, infrastructure, and livelihoods.
Pakistan’s government has estimated the cost of flood
damage at $30 billion and cut its projected annual economic
growth for this fiscal year from 5% to 3%.
Successive U.S. Administrations have described a stable,
democratic, and prosperous Pakistan as critical to U.S.
interests. This crisis may have U.S. security implications.
Responding to this disaster is taxing a Pakistani government
already struggling with political upheaval, worsening
economic and debt crises, unsettled civil-military relations,
and rising public discontent. Regional stability and efforts
Source: U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
to counter militancy and terrorism are U.S. concerns; both
may face negative impacts from the current crises. For
Humanitarian Needs
example, following 2010 flooding, some banned Pakistani
Pakistan’s affected populations reportedly are in dire need
terrorist groups apparently were at the forefront of rural
of relief supplies, including shelter, food, and water,
relief efforts and could gain popular support through such
sanitation, and hygiene (WASH). Experts say that floods
activities; Pakistan’s government denies that any banned
are likely to exacerbate food availability across the country,
groups are involved in flood relief in 2022. Congress may
particularly for those already experiencing food insecurity.
wish to consider whether or not U.S. assistance in response
More than 600,000 people have taken refuge in official
to the catastrophic floods would serve U.S. interests,
Government of Pakistan displacement sites, but the number
including economic and security objectives.
of people displaced without shelter is likely much higher.
The United Nations (U.N.) reports that, of those displaced,
Flood Damage—Initial Assessments
many are staying as close to their homes and the affected
Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority
areas as possible due to concerns that lack of land
(NDMA) is the lead federal agency for disaster relief
ownership documentation could prevent future returns. In
coordination, including relief operations supported by
many affected areas the humanitarian response has been
Pakistan’s army, navy, and air force. So far, the provinces
hampered by damaged roads and bridges. Humanitarian
of Sindh and Balochistan appear most affected (see Figure
organizations assert that maternal health and protection
1). As of September 9, 2022, the NDMA is reporting the
from gender-based violence are also of concern, as well as
following damage due to flooding since June 14, 2022:
an increased risk of vector-borne disease (such as malaria)
and water-borne disease (including diarrhea and cholera)
1,396 persons killed (39% Sindh, 20% Khyber
along with threats from venomous wildlife such as
Pakhtunkhwa or KP, 21% Balochistan, 14% Punjab) and
poisonous snakes. The floods also may exacerbate
12,728 injured;
preexisting outbreaks of coronavirus disease (COVID-19)
Affected population: more than 33 million (44% Sindh,
and other medical conditions, particularly as vaccine
28% Balochistan, 13% KP, 15% Punjab);
campaigns are suspended and access to care is limited.
Rescued population: 177,265 (43% Punjab, 39% KP)
National and International Responses
Population in official government of Pakistan
Government of Pakistan. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif
displacement sites: 663,869 (87% Sindh);
said he intends to set up a National Flood Response and
Coordination Center to facilitate a multiagency response in
Livestock deaths: more than 750,000 (67% Balochistan,
coordination with the NDMA. So far, the government has
27% Punjab);
established 147 camps for populations displaced by the
Damaged homes: more than 1.7 million (87% Sindh);
floods. Pakistan is planning to provide cash assistance to
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Pakistan’s 2022 Floods and Implications for U.S. Interests
those affected, while provincial governments may redirect
Scientific American assessment later that year, the scale of
development funds to flood relief. It also has verified
Pakistan’s flooding that year was “made worse by a history
several fund-raising agencies on the GoFundMe website.
of deforestation and land-use changes in the affected areas.”
Analysts estimate that Pakistan’s tree cover has decreased
International Responses. On August 30, 2022, the United
by at least 80% since its 1947 independence. A 2022 study
Nations issued a Flash Humanitarian Appeal for $160
on “recent global warming as a proximate cause of
million to support an Islamabad-led “Pakistan 2022 Floods
deforestation” found that Pakistan has the second-highest
Response.” The appeal identifies 5.2 million people
deforestation rate in Asia.
particularly in urgent need of humanitarian assistance,
including “food, water, sanitation, emergency education,
Poor governance and planning, and lack of political will,
protection and health support.” On a recent visit to
also might contribute to Pakistan’s vulnerability to floods.
Pakistan, the U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres
Inadequate water management likely played a role.
called for “massive” international support. International
Following the 2010 floods, the government reportedly
relief agencies have launched separate funding appeals.
failed to implement plans that would have reduced the
International financial institutions reportedly have pledged
consequences of future floods by preventing rebuilding in
$500 million toward Pakistan disaster relief and
and repopulating of flood-prone areas. Laws barring
development, with the vast majority coming from the
construction too close to river banks apparently were
World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.
widely violated.
U.S. Response
Pakistan’s climate minister is among those positing a causal
On August 12, 2022, U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan Donald
link between climate change and recent flooding. Some
Blome issued a disaster declaration and the U.S. Agency for
analyses see Pakistan as especially vulnerable to climate-
International Development (USAID) released $100,000 in
related extreme weather events. A 2021 report by the World
immediate humanitarian assistance. USAID also activated a
Bank Group and the Asian Development Bank identified as
Disaster Assistance Response Team in Pakistan to assess
a major concern the uncertainty of a warming climate’s
the impact of the floods and a Response Management Team
changes to glacial melt and extreme precipitation. A 2022
(based in Washington, DC) to coordinate U.S. government
U.N. report on “Pathways to Adaptation and Resilience”
flood response efforts. On August 30, USAID announced
projects that, in a “worst-case climate change scenario,”
an additional $30 million in humanitarian assistance,
Pakistan could realize average annual economic losses
stating that U.S. assistance would “prioritize urgently
equal to more than 9% of its GDP. Yale University’s 2022
needed food support, safe water, sanitation and hygiene
Environmental Performance Index gave Pakistan an overall
improvements, financial help, and shelter assistance.” From
ranking of 176th of 180 countries, including 175th in
Islamabad on September 9, USAID Administrator Power
“climate change mitigation” (mainly regarding reduction of
announced a further $20 million in humanitarian assistance.
greenhouse gas emissions).
Previously in FY2022, USAID also provided $3 million in
Early Recovery, Risk Reduction, and Resilience funding.
Issues for Congress
On September 8, the Department of Defense U.S. Central
For more than a decade, Congress has annually enacted
Command began air operations to transport USAID relief
security- and human rights-related conditions on bilateral
supplies from USAID’s Dubai warehouse to Pakistan to
aid to Pakistan, and security assistance was suspended in
support USAID-led humanitarian response operations.
2018. Congress may consider whether and if so, how to
address the crisis in Pakistan through humanitarian or more
Bilateral U.S. development assistance to Pakistan—
strategic long-term assistance amid unprecedented global
estimated at $71 million for FY2022, with $84 million
humanitarian need and competing priorities. Congress
requested for FY2023—is expected to continue, including
could consider whether the United States should provide
over $1 million in grants and project support provided
humanitarian assistance through multilateral channels such
earlier in August, and with programs adapting, in part, to
as the United Nations or nongovernmental implementing
address the long-term impact of the 2022 floods.
partners, and also monitor how the executive branch
allocates such assistance. Bilateral development activities
Environmental and Governance Issues
could be aligned more closely with U.S. objectives in
Pakistan suffers from multiple environmental and
Pakistan and also channeled through the government. For
governance challenges that potentially worsen natural
all U.S. support, Congress could conduct oversight of the
disasters, including flooding. A World Bank Vulnerability
delivery challenges encountered, including access and
Assessment found that “Pakistan faces some of the highest
security conditions in Pakistan, which could undermine the
disaster risk levels in the world, ranked 18 out of 191
effectiveness of humanitarian operations and development
countries by the 2019 Inform Risk Index.” The study
aid; and/or assess the flood disaster responses of the
estimates Pakistan’s average annual losses to flooding have
Islamabad government and international donors so as to
been around $1 billion.
improve ongoing and future disaster preparedness and
prevention activities, and to reduce the harm caused by
In the summer of 2010, the country experienced the most
future flood events.
catastrophic flooding in its history until then, a disaster that
officially killed more than 1,700 persons, affected more
K. Alan Kronstadt, Specialist in South Asian Affairs
than 20% of the land area and 20 million people, and
Rhoda Margesson, Specialist in International
caused billions of dollars in damage. According to a
Humanitarian Policy
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Pakistan’s 2022 Floods and Implications for U.S. Interests
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