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July 21, 2022
India: Climate Change Issues
Global climate change presents multiple challenges to
Figure 1. Historical Greenhouse Gas Emissions from
India. The country is faced with meeting its energy and
Energy Sector and IEA Emissions Projections for India
economic development needs, reducing its greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions, and addressing the potential impacts of
climate change. India is among the world’s top emitters of
GHGs, including carbon dioxide (CO2), along with China,
the United States, and the European Union; thus India’s
participation in global efforts to mitigate climate change
would be crucial to their success. India accounts for 18% of
the world’s population and 7% of global CO2 emissions in
2019, although its CO2 emissions per capita are
comparatively low. Energy use in India has roughly
doubled since 2000, with 80% of demand supplied by
energy generated from coal, oil, and solid biomass. Its
reliance on coal and other fossil fuels results in India
International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that India is
emitting more GHGs per unit of energy generated than
likely to continue to rely on coal as a primary source of
other large countries.
energy for at least another decade, even as coal’s share of
power generation may decline. India is the world’s second-
Impact of Climate Change
largest producer of coal and, according to the Indian
India is increasingly vulnerable to the effects of climate
government, its coal production rose 8.6% during the 12-
change. According to a December 2021 overview of the
month period ending March 2022. India’s expected rapid
country’s National Action Plan on Climate Change,
industrialization and urbanization likely will continue to
“Climate change is one of the most critical global
create large energy demands, perhaps most notably in the
challenges of our times. Recent events have emphatically
area of space cooling.
demonstrated our growing vulnerability to climate change.
Climate change impacts will range from affecting
By many accounts, transition away from coal to renewables
agriculture—further endangering food security—to sea-
is among the most important tasks facing Indian leaders as
level rise and the accelerated erosion of coastal zones,
they address climate change and reform India’s energy
increasing intensity of natural disasters, species extinction,
sector. Coal continues to account for nearly half of India’s
and the spread of vector-borne diseases.”
total energy consumption and about three-quarters of
electricity generation. Renewable energy is India’s second-
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC)
largest source of power generation and the fastest growing,
Draft Sixth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2022:
with solar sources growing by an average of 60% annually
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability provides both
since 2015. The potential exists for further expansion of the
observations and projections of potential impacts of climate
generating capacity of renewables including in solar, wind,
change on India. The report states that air temperature has
and hydroelectricity production.
increased in the 20th century over all of Asia, and Asian
countries are experiencing hotter summer climates,
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to attain
resulting in increased energy demands. It also projects a
500 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel energy generation by 2030,
decline in fisheries, aquaculture, and crop production, with
requiring a more than four-fold increase of current capacity.
climate change affecting rice and maize yields. Additional
More than half of this addition would come in the solar
potential impacts to the region noted in the report include
sector. According to the IEA, solar accounted for
an increase in natural disaster-associated displacements of
approximately 4% of India’s electricity generation in 2021.
people; degradation and loss of coral reefs; increasing stress
on fresh water resources; sea level rise; heat stress; an
The Green India Mission, one of the eight Missions under
increase in mosquito borne disease; and an increase in
India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change, aims to
intense tropical cyclones, among others.
enhance carbon sinks, increase forest cover, and improve
the quality of forest cover, but reportedly has not met
Domestic Climate Policies
interim reduction targets in all states.
India’s 1.4 billion people and growing middle class with
patterns of increased consumption have created rapidly
Another key issue for India is emissions from vehicular
growing energy demand and resulting GHG emissions (see
transport. According to the IEA, “Oil demand for road
Figure 1). To meet projected growth in electricity demand
freight transport in India has tripled since 2000” and
“e
over the next twenty years, India reportedly would need to
missions from passenger road transport in India have also
quadrupled since 2000.”
add a power system the size of the European Union’s. The
Government mitigation efforts
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India: Climate Change Issues
include Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) and
through additional forest and tree cover by 2030. At the
other fuel efficiency standards. New Delhi has plans to
COP26 summit, Prime Minister Modi announced that India
boost usage of clean fuels, further tighten existing emission
would meet 50% of its energy requirements from
standards, and promote electric vehicles to comprise at least
renewables by 2030, reduce total projected carbon
30% of all passenger cars by 2030.
emissions by one billion tons by 2030, reduce the carbon
intensity of its economy by 45% by 2030, and achieve net
Approach to COP Negotiations
zero emissions by 2070.
In the lead-up to the 26th session of the Conference of
Parties (COP26) to the United Nations Framework
Cooperation with the United States
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Glasgow,
In April 2021, President Biden and Prime Minister Modi
United Kingdom, high-level officials from the United
established the U.S.-India Climate and Clean Energy
States, the UK, and the European Union reportedly met
Agenda 2030 Partnership “to explore and identify low
with Indian officials to urge India to adopt a net-zero
carbon pathways to develop and undertake joint research
emissions target for mid-century. The Indian government
and development projects, mobilize finance, develop and
elected not to update its Nationally Determined
promote green technologies, and enhance technical
Contribution (NDC) ahead of COP26, although Prime
collaboration aimed at building on complementarities for
Minister Modi did identify additional measures in his
facilitating energy transition.” A Strategic Clean Energy
national statement to the COP26 Summit (NDCs represent
Partnership is one of the two main tracks of this
each country’s own commitment to meeting the goals of the
mechanism, working on four “pillars” (Responsible Oil and
2015 Paris Agreement). India joined China to alter the
Gas; Power and Energy Efficiency; Renewable Energy; and
summit’s commitment in the final decision to “phase down”
Sustainable Growth).
rather than “phase out” unabated coal usage, raising
concern about whether the world can limit average global
During his September 2021 visit to New Delhi, U.S. Special
temperature rise to well below 2⁰C.
Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry joined Indian
officials in launching a second track of the partnership: a
India has for decades argued that developed countries
bilateral Climate Action and Finance Mobilization
caused the current climate crisis and should thus take the
Dialogue. New Delhi anticipates that this dialogue will
bulk of responsibility for mitigating it, and that developed
“help in mobilizing finance to speed the clean energy
countries should also support developing countries’ climate
transition.” Two weeks later, President Biden and Prime
mitigation efforts financially and technologically. In 2021,
Minister Modi met in Washington, DC, where the former
the Indian government stated that developed countries
expressed support for India’s goal of installing 450
should provide developing countries “new and additional
GW (later raised to 500 GW) by 2030, and the latter
financial resources and environmentally benign
welcomed the United States’ return to the Paris Agreement.
technologies as committed under the UNFCCC.” The same
year, a senior Indian Environment Ministry official
The United States welcomed India’s announcement at
reportedly said, “We believe in the polluters-pay principle,”
COP26 that it would intensify its climate action, including
and argued that developed countries, because they have
its long-term vision to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070.
contributed most of the emissions that led to climate
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the United
change, should be responsible for assisting developing
States “is supporting India’s ambitious COP26 clean energy
nations by putting a compensation mechanism in place.
commitments by investing in renewable energy projects and
mobilizing private sector financing,” and notes that this
In his speech to the COP26 World Leaders Summit, Prime
effort includes a recently announced $500 million U.S.
Minister Modi stated, “India expects developed countries to
International Development Finance Corporation loan to
make $1 trillion available as climate finance as soon as
build solar panels in India. The Quadrilateral Security
possible. As we track the progress of climate mitigation, we
Dialogue or “Quad” is another mechanism through which
must also track climate finance. Justice would truly be
the United States and India—along with Japan and
served if pressure is put on those countries that have not
Australia—are undertaking initiatives to address climate
lived up to their climate finance commitments.”
change. At a May 2022 Quad summit meeting, the four
leaders launched a new “Quad Climate Change Adaptation
Nationally Determined Contribution
and Mitigation Package.”
COP27 is to take place in Egypt in November 2022. Most
countries—including all G20 countries except China and
In the 117th Congress, Senate Foreign Relations Committee
India—updated their NDCs prior to COP26. An October
Chairman Senator Robert Menendez introduced the
2021 United Nations synthesis report on NDCs found that
Prioritizing Clean Energy and Climate Cooperation with
“nations must urgently redouble their climate efforts if they
India Act of 2021 (S. 2719). The bill would establish a
are to prevent global temperature increases beyond the Paris
bilateral Climate and Clean Energy Partnership to deepen
Agreement’s goal of well below 2C—ideally 1.5C—by the
and expand bilateral cooperation. A similar bill (H.R. 8088)
end of the century.”
was introduced in the House in June 2022.
India’s 2016 NDC pledges to reduce national emissions per
K. Alan Kronstadt, Specialist in South Asian Affairs
GDP (“carbon intensity”) by 33%-35% from 2005 levels;
Kezee Procita, Senior Research Librarian
install the capacity for 40% of the country’s electric power
Bruce Vaughn, Specialist in Asian Affairs
to be from non-fossil fuel-based resources by 2030; and
create an additional carbon sink of 2.5-3 billion tons of CO2
IF12178
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India: Climate Change Issues
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