INSIGHTi

2022 Hurricane Outlooks and 2021 Hurricane
Season Review
May 31, 2022
Many in Congress have expressed interest in increasing scientific understanding of tropical cyclones and
improving forecasts to help their constituents prepare for the yearly hurricane season and potentially
decrease a storm’s impact on an individual or community. The Department of Commerce’s National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is responsible for issuing tropical cyclone forecasts,
including track, intensity, storm surge, and rainfall.
NOAA defines a tropical cyclone as a “rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that
originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation.” According to
NOAA, tropical cyclones include
 Tropical depressions—maximum sustained winds of ≤ 38 miles per hour (mph).
 Tropical storms—maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. NOAA typically names a
storm once it reaches this strength.
 Hurricanes—maximum sustained winds of ≥ 74 mph, corresponding to at least a category
1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Hurricanes may also be called
typhoons or cyclones.
 Major hurricanes—maximum sustained winds of ≥111 mph, corresponding to a category
3, 4, or 5.
NOAA releases seasonal hurricane outlooks relevant to the United States, including the north Atlantic,
eastern Pacific, and central Pacific Oceans, before each hurricane season begins. Such outlooks include
information on potential named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. The Atlantic and central Pacific
seasons run from June 1 through November 30; the eastern Pacific season begins May 15. Tropical
cyclones, however, may form outside of these time frames. In August, NOAA typically updates the
Atlantic outlook but not the Pacific outlooks. Multiple nonfederal entities also publish outlooks. These
forecasts rely, in part, on NOAA’s collected and shared information.
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2022 Hurricane Season Outlooks
In May 2022, NOAA issued its initial 2022 Atlantic hurricane outlook (Table 1), indicating a 65%
likelihood of an above-normal season rather than a near- (25%) or below-normal season (10%). The
predicted number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes was similar to the number predicted
in August 2021 for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA indicated that the higher level of activity is
attributed to climate factors, such as the ongoing periodic cooling of sea surface temperatures in the
central and east-central equatorial Pacific (La Niña phenomenon), warmer-than-average sea surface
temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an
enhanced West African monsoon system.
Table 1. 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
1991-2020 Annual Averages and 2022 Outlooks

1991-2020 Annual
NOAA August 2022
Averages
NOAA May 2022 Outlook
Outlook
Named Storms
14
14-21
NA
Hurricanes
7
6-10
NA
Major Hurricanes
3
3-6
NA
Sources: NOAA, “Tropical Cyclone Climatology” (hereinafter, NOAA, “TC Climatology”); NOAA, “NOAA 2022
Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook,” May 24, 2022.
Notes: NA = not available. NOAA notes a 70% probability for each of the May 2022 outlook ranges of activity.
NOAA released its 2022 outlooks for the eastern (Table 2) an d central Pacific hurricane seasons in May
2022. NOAA anticipated that both the eastern and central Pacific areas likely would experience below-
normal seasons (60%) rather than near- (30%) or above-normal seasons (10%).
Table 2. 2022 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season:
1991-2020 Annual Averages and 2022 Outlook

1991-2020 Annual Averages
NOAA May 2022 Outlook
Named Storms
15
10-17
Hurricanes
8
4-8
Major Hurricanes
4
0-3
Sources: NOAA, “TC Climatology;” NOAA, “NOAA 2022 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook,” May 24, 2022.
Note: NOAA notes a 70% probability for each of the May 2022 outlook ranges of activity.
NOAA predicts two to four tropical cyclones in the central Pacific in 2022 (the average is four to five
tropical cyclones per year).
2021 Hurricane Season
In May 2021, NOAA issued its initial 2021 Atlantic hurricane outlook (Table 3), indicating a 60%
likelihood of an above-normal season rather than a near- (30%) or below-normal season (10%). In its
August 2021 update, NOAA increased the likelihood of an above-normal season to 65%, adjusted the
ranges of expected named storms and hurricanes, and retained its original number of major hurricanes
(Table 1).

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Table 3. 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Outlooks and Actual Amounts

NOAA May 2021
NOAA August 2021
Outlook
Outlook
2021 Actual
Named Storms
13-20
15-21
21
Hurricanes
6-10
7-10
7
Major Hurricanes
3-5
3-5
4
Sources: NOAA, “NOAA Predicts Another Active Atlantic Hurricane Season,” May 20, 2021; NOAA, “Atlantic
Hurricane Season Shows No Signs of Slowing,” August 4, 2021; and NOAA, “Active 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Officially Ends,” November 30, 2021.
The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season (Figure 1) was the third most active year on record in terms of named
storms (21) and the sixth consecutive year with an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. Since 2016, a
tropical cyclone has formed before the June 1 start of the hurricane season (e.g., tropical storm Ana
formed in May 2021).
Figure 1. NOAA’s 2021 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Source: NOAA, National Hurricane Center.
Note: Major hurricanes (Grace, Ida, Larry, Sam) denoted in purple.

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NOAA released its 2021 eastern Pacific (Table 4) and central Pacific hurricane outlooks in May 2021,
anticipating these regions likely would experience near- (45%) to below-normal (35%) seasons, with
above-normal seasons less likely to occur (20%).
Table 4. 2021 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season: Outlook and Actual Amounts

NOAA May 2021 Outlook
2021 Actual
Named Storms
12-18
19
Hurricanes
5-10
6
Major Hurricanes
2-5
2
Sources: NOAA, “NOAA 2021 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook,” May 20, 2021, and NOAA, “Eastern North
Pacific Hurricane Season Summary Table.”
The 2021 eastern Pacific hurricane season began with Tropical Storm Andres forming May 9, 2021. The
season featured two major hurricanes: Felicia and Linda.
NOAA predicted the central Pacific would experience two to five tropical cyclones in 2021. The central
Pacific basin averaged four to five tropical cyclones per year between 1991 and 2020. One tropical
cyclone (Jimena) traveled from the eastern Pacific into the central Pacific basin in 2021 (see Tropical
Storm Jimena’s track on Figure 2).

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Figure 2. NOAA’s 2021 Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Source: NOAA, National Hurricane Center.
Note: Major hurricanes (Felicia, Linda) denoted in purple.

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Author Information

Eva Lipiec

Analyst in Natural Resources Policy

Disclaimer
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