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Updated January 12, 2022
Climate and Security in the Middle East and North Africa
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is
this century; less agreement exists over whether
among the world’s most water-stressed and vulnerable to
precipitation may increase or decrease in other parts of the
climate change impacts. Policymakers’ concerns about a
MENA region (e.g., Arabian Peninsula, Sahara portion of
changing MENA climate include not only physical and
various North Africa countries). Regarding precipitation
economic impacts but also the potential implications for
extremes, some studies (e.g., Ozturk et al. in Atmosphere,
political stability and security in a volatile region.
2021) project an increase in precipitation amounts on very
wet days for the end of this century for much of the region,
A Dry Region Under Stress
which may contribute to flooding.
Projections of various effects of climate change on the
largely arid and semi-arid MENA region are available,
Rising sea levels are encroaching on MENA coastlines and
although regional analyses are often constrained by limited
communities, thereby contributing to more frequent
data for MENA and downscaling from global models.
flooding and more extensive coastal storm flooding.
Given MENA’s geographic span—from Morocco to Iran—
According to some researchers, by 2050, portions of Iraq’s
and topographic variation (e.g., mountains, deserts, and
second-largest city of Basra and other southern Iraqi areas
deltas), local effects may differ from regional trends.
could experience chronic coastal flooding. Alexandria,
Egypt, one of the most populous coastal cities in the Middle
Heat. Temperatures in the MENA region have increased
East, also could be regularly flooded by rising sea levels.
for decades and are projected to continue increasing
through the end of the century. Figure 1 shows one
Agriculture and Food. Much of MENA’s agriculture and
projection of hottest day temperature increases by 2040.
food production is rain-fed or consists of livestock.
Some research suggests intensification of warm-season heat
Production and many rural agricultural livelihoods are
extremes in the region (e.g., Zittis et al. in Climate and
sensitive to changes in heat, drought, and precipitation
Atmospheric Science, 2021). Hotter conditions generally
patterns. Additionally, some production in the region relies
increase energy demand for cooling and may negatively
on irrigation, which can be sensitive to surface water
affect health, labor, and agricultural productivity.
availability and can contribute to overuse of aquifers.
Limited arable land, water scarcity, and other resources and
Figure 1. 2040 Projections for MENA: Hottest Day
environmental constraints limit regional agricultural
Temperatures and Longest Annual Drought Days
production. The region has coped with population growth
and urbanization by importing food. Reliance on food
imports is anticipated to persist, with demographic and diet
trends and changing agricultural growing conditions (e.g.,
potential productivity losses) as contributing factors.
How Climate May Interact with Security
U.S. national security assessments have described climate
change as a threat multiplier that may exacerbate existing
tensions in regions facing other challenges, like intra-state
conflict, rapid population growth, urbanization, or poor
governance. The chain of linkages from climate and
weather events to political stability is complex, with
intervening critical factors such as social schisms and
Source: CRS adapted from U.S. National Intel igence Council (NIC),
governance. In the MENA region, where several countries
Global Trends 2040, March 2021.
(e.g., Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon) are divided along
Notes: The projections used the Representative Concentration
ethnic/sectarian lines, armed sub-state actors and terrorist
Pathway 4.5. NIC’s data source was Schwingshackl, Sil man, and the
groups could broaden their appeal to sectors of the
Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research. NIC’s
population disaffected by physical hardships wrought by
graphic source was Pardee Center, University of Denver.
climate change.
Various examples illustrate how climate conditions and
Water. Both droughts and floods occur in MENA, with
weather events, such as droughts and heatwaves, could
variability over time and place. Several studies project
affect MENA’s future in terms of political unrest, violent
increasingly lengthy droughts in some parts of MENA.
conflicts, and the well-being of its people. For instance,
These include annual dry spells projected to last longer by
rising or spiking food prices or water shortages previously
2040 (Figure 1). Many (but not all) studies project less
have triggered urban unrest in the region. Reliance on food
precipitation along MENA’s Mediterranean coast through
imports links MENA’s internal stability to agricultural
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Climate and Security in the Middle East and North Africa
conditions in exporting nations. Poor conditions in
engendered some skepticism. If the United States and
agricultural exporting countries contributed to reduced
Europe reduce their hydrocarbon dependency and domestic
MENA food imports and associated food shortages in 2010-
production, GCC state-owned oil companies may increase
2011. In the case of Syria, decades of land and groundwater
production to meet rising energy demands from China,
overuse in the nation’s breadbasket, combined with a 2006-
India, and elsewhere.
2010 drought and periods of spiking global oil and food
prices, played a part in agricultural workers migrating to
Other MENA countries that are net hydrocarbon importers
cities, where many were unable to find employment. When
are adjusting or may adjust their energy policies. For
Syria’s uprising began in 2011, disaffected rural migrants
example, Morocco has attempted to reduce its dependence
formed the base of opposition against the Assad regime. In
on fossil fuel imports and aims to generate over half of its
North Africa, local protests about water shortages
electricity from renewable sources by 2030 (e.g. by
reportedly occurred in 2017-2018. In Iraq, observers
building concentrated solar power capacity). Morocco’s
identified droughts as undermining rural Sunni livelihoods,
government announced in 2019 that renewable sources
which some argue may have helped fuel Islamic State
composed an estimated 35% of its electricity production the
recruitment.
prior year.
The November 2021 United Nations Framework
Some countries wil be able to afford expensive, new
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of
adaptations … but in many MENA countries,
Parties (COP26) yielded a series of global discussions and
governments’ inability to address water and heat
agreements focused on GHG emissions reductions and
challenges wil increase public frustration with government
other topics. Most countries—including many MENA
performance and potentially spark new migration flows.
countries—updated their Nationally Determined
—U.S. National Intelligence Council, 2021 Five-Year
Contributions (NDCs) in 2021. NDCs represent each
Regional Outlook: Middle East and North Africa
country’s own commitment to meeting the objectives of the
Paris Agreement (PA), a UNFCCC agreement intended to
Climate change is anticipated to challenge the capacities to
reduce the effects of climate change. In addition to NDCs,
adapt of poorer countries and politically unstable
some countries have also pledged to reach net-zero
governments. For example, in Iraq, rising daily
emissions by mid-century, including Saudi Arabia, Israel,
temperatures and more frequent heat extremes since the
UAE, and Bahrain. Stakeholders have expressed that even
1970s contribute to the demand for air conditioning. Peak
these updated commitments may be insufficient for
summer electricity demand has exceeded generation
lessening all of the potential impacts of climate change.
capacity in Iraq’s electricity sector, which has been affected
Egypt is the host country for COP27 in 2022. Egypt has not
by decades of war, corruption, and government
submitted an updated NDC; however; at COP 26, Egypt
mismanagement. Some public protests have expressed
announced its National Climate Change Strategy 2050 and
frustration over power shortages, as many Iraqis cannot
signaled interest in enhancing attention to climate change’s
afford private generators to cope with summer heat. Studies
water impacts at COP27.
for the World Bank project that reduced water availability
in the region may contribute to a decrease in gross domestic
Recent Related U.S. Efforts and Policies
product over time.
In April 2021, President Biden hosted a summit on climate
for 40 world leaders, including some leaders from the
Variations across the region in national wealth and state
MENA region. At the summit, the Biden Administration
capacity to respond to climate and weather events may lead
committed to exerting U.S. leadership in addressing climate
to different efforts toward adaptation, such as improving
change. The Department of State and the U.S. Agency for
regional drought monitoring, investing in water
International Development are to coordinate “U.S.
conservation and efficiency (e.g., Israel’s water reuse), and
government efforts to support countries around the world to
shifting to more heat-resilient crop varieties. Regional water
enhance and meet their climate goals in ways that further
and energy cooperation also may expand. In November
their national development priorities.” The White House
2021, Israel, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)
also announced a “Net-Zero Producers Forum,” composed
agreed to a plan in which the UAE will finance the
of the United States, Canada, Norway, Qatar, and Saudi
construction of solar power capacity in Jordan for
Arabia, for developing ideas to reduce energy-related
electricity export to Israel in exchange for Israel supplying
emissions. At COP26, the United States and the UAE
desalinated water to water-stressed Jordan.
launched the Agriculture Innovation Mission for Climate to
Energy and Emissions Policies
support innovation and research to enhance climate
resiliency and reduce emissions in the global agriculture
Some oil-rich members of the Gulf Cooperation Council
sector. The Biden Administration has signaled a role in
(GCC, composed of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait,
MENA for the Build Back Better World initiative, a G7-
Oman, Qatar, and Bahrain) have undertaken efforts to
partnership for investment in developing countries’ large-
diversify their economies. In 2021, Saudi Crown Prince
scale infrastructure projects, with climate change mitigation
Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud announced that Saudi
Arabia, the world’s second
and adaptation among the initiative’s objectives.
-largest oil producer, seeks to
generate half of its domestic energy from renewable sources
by 2030; this target is part of the Crown Prince’s “Vision
Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs
2030” to diversify the kingdom’s economy away from
Nicole T. Carter, Specialist in Natural Resources Policy
hydrocarbons. However, these types of pledges have
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Climate and Security in the Middle East and North Africa
Kezee Procita, Head Research and Library Services
Section
IF11878
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