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July 15, 2021
Climate and Security in the Middle East and North Africa
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is
precipitation may increase or decrease in other parts of the
among the world’s most water-stressed and vulnerable to
MENA region (e.g., Arabian Peninsula, Sahara portion of
climate change. Policymakers’ concerns about a changing
various North Africa countries). Regarding precipitation
MENA climate include not only physical and economic
extremes, some studies (e.g., Ozturk et al. in Atmosphere,
impacts but also the potential implications for political
2021) project an increase in precipitation amounts on very
stability and security in a volatile region.
wet days for the end of this century for much of the region,
which may contribute to flooding.
A Dry Region Under Stress
Projections of various effects of climate change on the
Rising sea levels are encroaching on coastal ecosystems and
largely arid and semi-arid MENA region are available,
communities, thereby contributing to more frequent
although regional analyses are often constrained by limited
flooding and more extensive coastal storm flooding.
data for MENA and downscaling from global models .
According to some researchers, by 2050, portions of Iraq’s
Given MENA’s geographic span—from Morocco to Iran—
second-largest city of Basra and other southern Iraqi areas
and topographic variation (e.g., mountains, deserts, and
could experience chronic coastal flooding. Alexandria,
deltas), local effects may differ from regional trends.
Egypt, one of the most populous coastal cities in the Middle
East, also could be regularly flooded by rising sea levels.
Heat. Temperatures in the MENA region have increased
for decades and are projected to continue increasing in
Agriculture and Food. Much of MENA’s agriculture and
coming decades through the end of the century. Figure 1
food production is rain-fed or consists of livestock.
shows one projection of hottest day temperature increases
Production and many rural agricultural livelihoods are
by 2040. Some research suggests intensifying warm-season
sensitive to changes in heat, drought, and precipitation
heat extremes in the region (e.g., Zittis et al. in Climate and
patterns. Additionally, some production in the region relies
Atmospheric Science, 2021). Hotter conditions generally
on irrigation, which can be sensitive to surface water
increase energy demand for cooling and may negatively
availability and can contribute to overuse of aquifers.
affect health, labor, and agricultural productivity.
Limited arable land, water scarcity, and other resources and
environmental constraints limit regional agricultural
Figure 1. 2040 Projections for MENA: Hottest Day
production. The region has coped with population growth
Temperatures and Longest Annual Drought Days
and urbanization by importing food. Reliance on food
imports is anticipated to persist, with demographic and diet
trends and changing agricultural growing conditions (e.g.,
potential productivity losses) as contributing factors.
How Climate May Interact with Security
U.S. national security assessments have described climate
change as a threat multiplier that may exacerbate existing
tensions in regions facing other challenges, like intra-state
conflict, rapid population growth, urbanization, or poor
governance. The chain of linkages from climate and
weather events to political stability is complex, with
intervening critical factors such as social schisms and
governance. In the MENA region, where several countries
Source: CRS adapted from U.S. National Intel igence Council (NIC),
(Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon) are divided along
Global Trends 2040, March 2021. The projections used the
ethnic/sectarian lines, armed sub-state actors and terrorist
Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5. NIC identified the data
groups could broaden their appeal to sectors of the
source as Schwingshackl, Sil man, and the Centre for International
population disaffected by physical hardships wrought by
Climate and Environmental Research and the graphic source as
climate change.
Pardee Center University of Denver.
Various examples illustrate how climate conditions and
Water. Both droughts and floods occur in MENA, with
weather events, such as droughts and heatwaves, could
variability over time and place. Several studies project
affect MENA’s future in terms of political unrest, violent
increasingly lengthy droughts in some parts of MENA.
conflicts, and the well-being of its people. For instance,
These include annual dry spells projected to last longer by
rising or spiking food prices or water shortages previously
2040 (Figure 1). Many (but not all) studies project less
have triggered urban unrest in the region. Reliance on food
imports links MENA’s internal stability t
precipitation along MENA’s Mediterranean coast through
o agricultural
this century; less agreement exists over whether
conditions in exporting nations. Poor conditions in
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Climate and Security in the Middle East and North Africa
agricultural exporting countries contributed to reduced
production to meet rising energy demands from China,
MENA food imports and associated food shortages in 2010-
India, and elsewhere.
2011. In the case of Syria, decades of land and groundwater
overuse in the nation’s breadbasket, combined with a 2006-
Other MENA countries that are net hydrocarbon importers
2010 drought and periods of spiking global oil and food
are adjusting or may adjust their energy policies. For
prices, played a part in agricultural workers migrating to
example, Morocco has attempted to reduce its dependence
cities, where many were unable to find employment. When
on fossil fuel imports and increase its domestic renewable
Syria’s uprising began in 2011, disaffected rural migrants
energy output by building large concentrated solar power
formed the base of opposition against the Assad regime. In
capacity. Morocco’s government announced in 2019 that
North Africa, local protests about water shortages
renewable sources composed an estimated 35% of its
reportedly occurred in 2017-2018. In Iraq, observers
electricity production the prior year. Morocco aims to
identified droughts as undermining rural Sunni livelihoods,
generate over half of its electricity from renewable sources
which some argue may have helped fuel Islamic State
by 2030.
recruitment.
Leading up to the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of Parties in
Some countries wil be able to afford expensive, new
November 2021 (COP26), some countries are pledging new
adaptations … but in many MENA countries,
emissions reduction goals. These goals, or Nationally
governments’ inability to address water and heat
Determined Contributions (NDCs), represent each
chal enges wil increase public frustration with government
countries’ own commitment to meeting the objectives of the
performance and potential y spark new migration flows.
Paris Agreement, a UNFCCC agreement intended to reduce
— U.S. National Intel igence Council, 2021 Five-Year
the effects of climate change. As of June 2021, two MENA
Regional Outlook: Middle East and North Africa
countries―the UAE and Lebanon―had submitted updated
NDCs. Eleven other MENA countries, including Saudi
Climate change is anticipated to challenge the capacities to
Arabia, have previously submitted NDCs but have not
adapt of poorer countries and politically unstable
updated them. Five MENA countries did not ratify the Paris
governments. For example, in Iraq, rising daily
Agreement; some of these submitted intended NDCs , while
temperatures and more frequent heat extremes since the
others did not. Meeting some emissions reduction goals
1970s contribute to the demand for air conditioning. Peak
may prove difficult for MENA region countries. According
summer electricity demand has exceeded generation
to the Climate Action Tracker (CAT, an organization which
capacity in Iraq’s electricity sector, which has been affected
tracks government climate actions), Saudi Arabia and the
by decades of war, corruption, and government
UAE are not on a trajectory to meet their NDC targets ,
mismanagement. Some public protests have expressed
while Morocco appears likely to achieve its pledge.
frustration over power shortages, as many Iraqis cannot
afford private generators to cope with summer heat.
Recent Related U.S. Efforts and Policies
In April 2021, President Biden hosted a summit on climate
Variations across the region in national wealth and state
for 40 world leaders, including some leaders from the
capacity to respond to climate and weather events may lead
MENA region. At the summit, the Biden Administration
to different efforts toward adaptation, such as improving
committed to exerting U.S. leadership in addressing climate
regional drought monitoring, investing in water
conservation and efficiency (e.g., Israel’s water reuse), and
change. The Department of State and the U.S. Agency for
International Development are to coordinate “U.S.
shifting to more heat-resilient crop varieties. Studies for the
government efforts to support countries around the world to
World Bank project that reduced water availability in the
enhance and meet their climate goals in ways that further
region may contribute to a decrease in gross domestic
their national development priorities.” The White House
product over time.
also announced a “Net-Zero Producers Forum,” composed
Energy and Emissions Policies
of the United States, Canada, Norway, Qatar, and Saudi
Arabia, for developing ideas to reduce energy-related
Some oil-rich members of the Gulf Cooperation Council
emissions. Also in April 2021, the United States and the
(GCC, composed of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab
UAE announced the Agriculture Innovation Mission for
Emirates [UAE], Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and Bahrain) have
Climate, which is expected to launch at COP26, to
undertaken efforts to diversify their economies. In 2021,
accelerate global research and development on agriculture
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud
and food systems to support climate action.
announced that Saudi Arabia, the world’s second-largest oil
producer, seeks to generate half of its domestic energy from
renewable sources by 2030; this target is part of the Crown
Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs
Prince’s “Vision 2030” to diversify the kingdom’s economy
Nicole T. Carter, Specialist in Natural Resources Policy
away from hydrocarbons. However, these types of pledges
Kezee Procita, Senior Research Librarian
have engendered some skepticism. If the United States and
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Europe reduce their hydrocarbon dependency and domestic
production, GCC state-owned oil companies may increase
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Climate and Security in the Middle East and North Africa
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