Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19
January 12, 2021
Pandemic: In Brief
Gene Falk, Coordinator
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a significant effect on
Specialist in Social Policy
unemployment in every state, industry, and major demographic group in the United

States. This report provides information on which groups have experienced the largest
Jameson A. Carter
increases in unemployment rates since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. Young
Research Assistant
workers, women, workers with low educational attainment, part-time workers, and racial
and ethnic minorities had relatively high unemployment rates in April 2020. Many, but
Isaac A. Nicchitta
not al , of these groups had relatively high rates in January 2021 as wel . The report also
Research Assistant
compares the overal unemployment rate during the current recession with the

unemployment rate experienced during the Great Recession. This report shows the
Emma C. Nyhof
following:
Research Assistant

 The unemployment rate peaked at an unprecedented level, not seen since data
Paul D. Romero
collection started in 1948, in April 2020 (14.8%) before declining to a stil -
Research Assistant
elevated level in January 2021 (6.3%).

 In April 2020, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment
rates greater than their highest unemployment rates during the Great Recession.

State-level unemployment has since general y declined, although some states’
recoveries have recently showed signs of slowing down or reversing.
 In the early months of the recession, unemployment was concentrated in industries that provide
in-person services. Notably, the leisure and hospitality industry experienced an unemployment
rate of 39.3% in April 2020, before declining to 15.9% in January 2021. While rates for service
industries remain elevated, other industries with loose attachment to in-person services are now
experiencing high rates. For example, the mining industry exhibited an unemployment rate of
14.2% in January 2021, the second highest observed among al industries.
 Part-time workers experienced an unemployment rate almost twice that of their full-time
counterparts in April 2020 (24.5% vs. 12.9%), but this gap has since effectively closed.
 Workers without a college degree experienced worse unemployment rates in April 2020 (e.g.,
21.2% for workers with no high school degree) than workers with a Bachelor’s degree or higher
(8.4%). The gap between educated and less-educated workers remained in January 2021.
 Teenaged women experienced an unemployment rate of 36.6% in April 2020, and teenaged men,
28.6%; compared with 13.7% for women and 12.1% for men ages 25-54. The gap between men
and women has since narrowed overal , but young workers are stil experiencing relatively high
rates of unemployment.
 Racial and ethnic minorities had relatively high unemployment rates in April 2020 (16.7% for
Black workers compared to 14.2% for White workers, and 18.9% for Hispanic workers compared
to 13.6% for non-Hispanic workers), and these gaps persisted in January 2021.

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Introduction
The National Bureau of Economic Research declared the start of the current economic downturn
in February 2020, marking the end of the longest period of expansion in U.S. history.1 This
expansion followed the Great Recession (December 2007 to June 2009), a downturn widely
considered to be the worst since the Great Depression (August 1929 to March 1933).2 The
unemployment rate rose quickly in March 2020, and by April 2020 it had greatly surpassed its
previous peaks observed during and just after the Great Recession. This spike in unemployment
coincided with various mandated stay-at-home orders implemented in response to the
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and other pandemic-related factors affecting
U.S. demand.3 Although unemployment rates have declined since April 2020, the rate in January
2021 (6.3%) remains much higher than the rate observed in February 2020 (3.5%).
This report discusses recent unemployment rate patterns at the national and state levels using
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. The two primary sources are the Current Population
Survey (CPS) and the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program. In addition to the
usual caveats about estimates (see “General Data Caveats”), there were additional data chal enges
caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (see “COVID 19 Pandemic-Related Data Issues”). The
pandemic led to lower survey response rates by businesses and households, and BLS detected an
error in their categorization procedures that likely underestimated unemployment early in the
recession.4 This report general y finds the following:
 The unemployment rate peaked, at a level not seen since data collection started in
1948, in April 2020 before declining to a stil -high level in January 2021.
 In April 2020, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment
rates greater than their highest unemployment rates during the Great Recession.
 Unemployment during the current recession is concentrated among workers who
were last employed in industries that provide in-person services and among
young workers, women, workers with low educational attainment, part-time
workers, and racial and ethnic minorities.
U.S. Unemployment Rate: Historical Trends
Prior recessions typical y developed with gradual y increasing economic distress. The current
recession was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which was an abrupt and exogenous shock to
the economy. The pandemic resulted in limiting contact among individuals and in many shutdown
orders. Therefore, the trends in the unemployment rate in the current recession differ from those
in prior recessions (see Figure 1). Rates observed during prior recessions rose relatively
gradual y over the course of an economic downturn and then peaked. The current recession
exhibited an unprecedented sharp increase in the rate (10.3 percentage points) from February to

1 T he National Bureau of Economic Research; see https://www.nber.org/cycles.html for their historical series of
expansions and contractions. For more on their process for determining expansions and contracti ons, see
https://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html#:~:text=
What%20is%20an%20expansion%3F,more%20than%20a%20few%20months.& text=
Expansion%20is%20the%20normal%20state,economy%3B%20most%20recessions%20are%20brief .
2 T he unemployment rates observed during the Great Recession, ho wever, never surpassed those of the early 1980’s.
3 See CRS Insight IN11388, COVID-19: U.S. Economic Effects, by Rena S. Miller and Marc Labonte.
4 See CRS Insight IN11456, COVID-19: Measuring Unemployment, by Lida R. Weinstock.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief

April 2020.5 Following April, the rate declined rapidly (8.4 percentage points from April 2020 to
January 2021) as temporarily furloughed workers returned to work. Despite these rapid declines,
the January 2021 unemployment rate persisted at a high level (6.3%). The share of workers on
furlough has declined since peaking in April 2020, while the share of permanently laid off
workers has steadily increased and has now passed the number furloughed for the first time since
March 2020.6 The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Federal Reserve have projected
that elevated unemployment rates over 6% wil persist over the next three years.7
Figure 1. Historical Unemployment Rate
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from January 1948 to January 2021

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Notes: Shaded regions indicate recessionary periods as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research .
Comparing the Great Recession and the COVID-19 Recession
During the Great Recession, the unemployment rate increased from 5% in December 2007 (the
start of the recession) to 9.5% in June 2009 (the end of the recession) (see Figure 2). The
unemployment rate peaked at 10% in October 2009, four months after the recession official y
concluded. In the current recession, the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% in February
2020 to 4.4% in March 2020, peaked8 at 14.8% in April 2020, and then fel to 6.3% in January
2021. The peak represents the quickest month-over-month increase in unemployment rates and
the highest overal unemployment rate since the CPS data started being collected in 1948.9

5 For information on the differences between the congressional response to the current recession compared to the
congressional response during the Great Recession in the Unemp loyment Insurance system, see CRS Report R46472,
Com paring the Congressional Response to the Great Recession and the COVID -19-Related Recession: Unem ploym ent
Insurance (UI) Provisions, by Katelin P. Isaacs and Julie M. Whittaker.
6 CRS analysis of BLS data, which can be found at https://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab11.htm. Workers on
temporary layoff declined from 18 million in April 2020 to 2.7 million in January 2021 as the number of permanent job
losers increased from 2 million in April 2020 to 3.5 million in January 2021.
7 See CRS Insight IN11460, COVID-19: How Quickly Will Unemployment Recover?, by Lida R. Weinstock.
8 T hroughout this report, peak refers to the highest level of unemployment between January 2020 and January 2021. It
does not account for months outside this range.
9 T here are many differences in labor force stat istics observed during the Great Recession, its aftermath, and the
COVID-19 recession. For more on this and for information on labor market patterns since 2007, see CRS Report
R45330, Labor Market Patterns Since 2007, by Sarah A. Donovan and Marc Labonte.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief

Figure 2. U.S. Unemployment Rate
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from November 2004 to January 2021

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
COVID-19 Recession: Unemployment Trends
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the unemployment rates for every state, industry, and
major demographic group. In the early stages of the current recession, unemployment rates
disproportionately increased in industries delivering in-person services. Some demographic
groups are overrepresented in such industries, contributing to higher rates for those workers.10
Unemployment Rates by State
Figure 3 displays state-level monthly unemployment rates from January to December 2020 and
indicates whether the rate increased or decreased from November to December. Further, the
figure shows that no state was immune from economic damage early in the pandemic.11 The data
for January 2021 have not been released as of the cover date of this report. Since the onset of the
current recession, the unemployment rate for every state and the District of Columbia surpassed
levels seen during the Great Recession. The variation in economic damage was due to a number
of factors, including the proportion of jobs in sectors that provide non-essential services to in-

10 Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic,”
Upjohn Institute, May 2020; and Robert Fairlie, “ T he Impact of Covid-19 on Small Business Owners: Evidence of
Early-Stage Losses from the April 2020 Current Population Survey,” NBER Working Paper No. 27309, June 2020.
11 Felipe Lozano-Rojas et al., “ Is the Cure Worse than the Problem Itself? Immediate Labor Market Effects of COVID-
19 Case Rates and School Closures in the U.S.,” NBER Working Paper No. 27127, May 2020; Eliza Forsythe et al.,
“Labor Demand in the T ime of COVID-19: Evidence from Vacancy P ostings and UI Claims,” NBER Working Paper
No. 27061, April 2020.
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person customers,12 individual concerns of contracting COVID-19 causing declines in personal
consumption,13 and the implementation of stay-at-home orders and business closure policies.14
Figure 3. Monthly State Unemployment Rates
Seasonal y adjusted data, displaying rates from November to December 2020 and change since last month

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Local Area Unemployment
Statistics program.
Notes: The National Bureau of Economic Research identified February of 2020 as the first month of the current
recession. The month-over-month changes are point estimates and have not been tested for significance. The
data for January 2021 have not been released as of the cover date of this report.
The unemployment rate in most states peaked in April 2020 and has since declined. In December
2020, the five states with the highest unemployment rates were Hawai (9.3%), Nevada (9.2%),
California (9.0%), Colorado (8.4%), and New Mexico (8.2%). The states with the lowest

12 Matthew Dey and Mark Loewenstein, “How many workers are employed in sectors directly affected by COVID -19
shutdowns, where do they work, and how much do they earn?” Monthly Labor Review, April 2020.
13 Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson, “Fear, lockdown, and diversion: comparing drivers of pandemic economic
decline 2020,” NBER Working Paper No. 27432, June 2020.
14 Sumedha Gupta et al., “Effects of Social Distancing Policy on Labor Market Out comes,” NBER Working Paper No.
2780, May 2020.
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unemployment rates in December 2020 were Nebraska (3.0%), South Dakota (3.0%), Iowa
(3.1%), Vermont (3.1%), and Utah (3.6%).
While the figure shows that most states were substantial y below their peak unemployment rates
in December 2020, several states’ recoveries have seemingly slowed. Colorado’s unemployment
rate has either plateaued or increased in every month, month-over-month, from September (6.4%)
to December 2020 (8.4%). Nine other states with elevated rates exhibited wavering recoveries
over the same period, as rates either increased or stal ed in at least two of three months. Ranked
by their recent unemployment rates, these states are Rhode Island (10.5% in September 2020 to
8.1% in December 2020), New Jersey (6.7% to 7.6%), Arizona (6.5% to 7.5%), Michigan (8.6%
to 7.5%), North Carolina (7.2% to 6.2%), Tennessee (6.5% to 6.4%), Kentucky (5.6% to 6.0%),
Wisconsin (5.4% to 5.5%), and South Carolina (5.2% to 4.6%). For most of these states, rates
declined from September to October before stal ing or increasing in November and December.
Unemployment Rates by Industry
Workers whose last job was in the leisure and hospitality industry experienced a higher peak in
unemployment (39.3% in April 2020) than did workers who were previously employed in any
other industry; they also had the highest unemployment rate in January 2021 (15.9%). However,
elevated unemployment rates are not constrained to industries providing in-person services.
Workers whose last job was in the mining or extraction industry have experienced steadily
increasing unemployment since the onset of the recession; in January 2021 they exhibited the
second highest rate among al workers across industries (14.2%) and the steepest year-over year
increase (up from 1.9% in January 2020). The lowest January 2021 rates were among workers
whose last job was in the government (3.0 %) or financial activities (3.4%) industries. These two
industries have had unemployment rates below 15% from January 2020 through January 2021.15
Within industries, some workers were more likely to lose their jobs than others. For example,
recent studies suggest that low-wage workers in the leisure and hospitality industry and other
services industries experienced disproportionately large employment losses.16
Figure 4 displays the change in industry unemployment rates from January 2020, before the
recession, to January 2021. CRS estimated that al of these year-over-year changes were
statistical y significant, except for those exhibited by agricultural workers.17 Further, CRS chose
to compare January 2020 with January 2021 because of a lack of seasonal y adjusted data.
Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to determine whether unemployment trends are
related to the recession or to seasonal trends. This report attempts to minimize seasonal influences
(for non-adjusted data) by comparing year-over-year estimates.

15 T he third lowest January 2021 unemployment rate was in the education and health services sector (4.3%). T hese data
are not seasonally adjusted and do not account for the likely seasonal variation in employme nt within the education and
health services sector.
16 Alexander Bartik et al., “ Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis,” NBER Working Paper
No. 27613, July 2020; and Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the
Covid-19 Pandemic,” Upjohn Institute Working Paper, May 2020.
17 BLS publishes a series of formulas used to produce standard errors for unemployment rates, from which they can
calculate confidence intervals to determine whether a year -over-year difference is statistically significant. CRS used
these formulas to calculate significance at the 95% confidence level. Bureau of Labor Statistic s, “ Calculating
Approximate Standard Errors and Confidence Intervals for Current Population Survey Estimates,” Washington, DC,
2018, p. 10, https://www.bls.gov/cps/calculating-standard-errors-and-confidence-intervals.pdf.

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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief

Figure 4. Unemployment Rates by Industry
Non-seasonal y adjusted data, displaying dif erences between January 2020 and January 2021

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Notes: Due to the lack of seasonal adjustment for these data, the 2021 unemployment rates for the different
industries are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2020. Industry sectors are defined by the
North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and can be found at https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/
iag_index_naics.htm. The figure shows unemployment rates for wage and salary workers.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief

Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers
As shown in Figure 5, part-time workers experienced a higher peak unemployment rate (24.5%
in April 2020) than full-time workers (12.9% in April 2020). This disparity has closed as the
recession has progressed, as the unemployment rate for part-time workers in January 2021 (6.4%)
is equivalent to the unemployment rate for full-time workers (6.4%).
There are a few reasons why part-time workers’ apparent recovery since April may not reflect the
economic realities they face. First, the gap between full- and part-time workers may have
narrowed because workers with part-time jobs are leaving the labor force. It is unclear whether
that is the case, though labor force participation rates have declined since March. Additional y,
workers who normal y would be working full-time may be working part-time for economic
reasons. This could reduce the unemployment rate among part-time workers. BLS has observed
that during the current recession, measures of labor underutilization, including workers who are
part-time due to economic reasons, have remained elevated.18
Figure 5. Monthly Unemployment Rates for Part- and Full-Time Workers
Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to January 2021

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Note: Both groups experienced their peak unemployment rate in April 2020.
Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age
As seen in Figure 6, unemployment rates tended to increase more for younger workers and were
higher for women early in the recession. Between February and April 2020, the rate for women
ages 16-19 increased by 25.8 percentage points to 36.6%; in contrast, the rates for men of the
same age increased by 16.4 percentage points to 27.6%. Since then, the gap betw een men and
women has narrowed. Although unemployment rates for younger workers remain relatively high
compared to older workers, the January 2021 rates for men and women across age groups have
declined to similar levels. The unemployment rate for teenaged men (15.7%) was higher than the
rate for teenaged women (14.0%) in January 2021. The rate for men ages 20-24 (10.0%) was

18 See https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm for U-6 unemployment rates, a measure of the total
unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic
reasons, as a percentage of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force. For more on
this measure, see CRS In Focus IF10443, Introduction to U.S. Econom y: Unem ployment, by Lida R. Weinstock.
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slightly higher than the rate for women of the same age (9.5%). The large disparities observed in
April between younger men and women were not observed in older age groups, although women
ages 25-54 and 55 and over had rates 1-3 percentage points high than their male counterparts.
This relatively modest gap has since closed; the rate in January 2021 for women ages 25 to 54
(5.8%) was lower than that of men (5.9%), and the rate for women ages 55 and over (5.1%) was
also lower than that of men (5.4%) from the same age group.
Figure 6. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age
Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to January 2021

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Notes: Every group experienced their peak unemployment rate in April 2020, except for 16 - to 19-year-old
men, who experienced their peak rate in May 2020.
Unemployment Rates by Racial Group and Hispanic Ethnicity
As seen in Figure 7, the unemployment rates for Black, Asian, and White19 workers increased
sharply in early 2020. But whereas the unemployment rate for White workers peaked in April
2020, the rate for Black and Asian workers continued to rise through May 2020. The January
2021 rates for Black (9.2%), Asian (6.6%), and White (5.7%) workers were al higher than their
respective rates in January 2020. The rate for Black workers has declined 7.6 percentage points
since peaking in May 2020, compared to a decline of 8.4 percentage points for Asian workers and
6.7 percentage points for White workers across the same period.

19 Asian, Black, and White are the three racial categories used in BLS, T able A2: Employment status of the civilian
population by race, sex, and age. See https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t02.htm.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief

Figure 7. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Racial Group
Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to January 2021

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Notes: Black and Asian workers experienced their peak unemployment rate in May 2020. White workers peak
rate occurred in April 2020.
People of any race can identify as being either Hispanic or non-Hispanic in the CPS. As seen in
Figure 8, Hispanic workers, like Black and Asian workers, continue to experience elevated
unemployment rates. In January 2021, unemployment rates experienced by Hispanic (9.4%) and
non-Hispanic (6.2%) workers were almost twice as high as those experienced in the previous
January, before the recession. While unemployment remains elevated compared to January 2020,
these rates are much lower than the peak exhibited in April 2020. The unemployment rate for
Hispanic workers rapidly increased by 13.7 percentage points to 18.9% from February to April
2020. For non-Hispanic workers the unemployment rate increased by 10 points to 13.6%.
Figure 8. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Hispanic Origin
Non-seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 and January 2021

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Notes: Due to the lack of seasonal adjustment for these data, the 2021 unemployment rates for the Hispanic
and non-Hispanic groups are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2020. Statistical significance
is not calculated because BLS does not provide formula parameters for non-Hispanic workers.
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Unemployment Rates by Education
In general, workers with lower levels of educational attainment have higher rates of
unemployment. This pattern has been amplified during the current recession, as seen in Figure 9.
The unemployment rate for workers with less than a high school diploma peaked in April 2020
(21.2%), which was higher than the peak for al other education levels. The January 2021 rate for
workers with less than a high school diploma (9.1%) was also higher than the rate for al other
education levels. Workers with a Bachelor’s degree or higher, the highest educational level
classified here, had the lowest peak unemployment rate (8.4% in April 2020) and the lowest
January 2021 rate (4%) among al education levels.
Figure 9. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Education
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to January 2021

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Notes: Al groups experienced their peak unemployment rate in April 2020.
Data Limitations and Caveats
National level data presented in this report are from the CPS and state level data are from the
LAUS program. The CPS is a sample survey of about 60,000 households conducted by the
Census Bureau for BLS. LAUS is a BLS program that calculates state-level unemployment rates
using multiple data sources, including the CPS.20

20 In addition to the CPS, LAUS uses the Current Employment Statistics survey, state Unemployment Insurance claims
counts, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program, and data from the Census Bureau’s American
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Both the CPS and LAUS estimates are subject to sampling and non-sampling error.21 Sampling
error occurs when the survey sample is not representative of the underlying population, while
non-sampling error describes errors often associated with data collection.22 Sampling error is a
result of statistical theory that underlies any estimate generated through surveys. While the CPS
sample is selected to be representative of the nation, the possibility remains that it does not
accurately estimate certain nationwide statistics.23 Non-sampling error refers to al sources of
error that are not due to sampling. They can result from incorrect or biased collection and
processing of the data. For example, non-sampling error can occur if a surveyor incorrectly
records responses or a respondent incorrectly responds to a question.
COVID 19 Pandemic-Related Data Issues
The COVID-19 pandemic increased non-sampling error in the CPS due to a number of factors.
For example, BLS reported that the survey experienced lower household response rates.24 (The
bureau has made statements affirming the robustness of its estimates despite these lower response
rates.25) Furthermore, BLS detected an error in its categorization procedures that likely
underestimated unemployment early in the recession.26 Specifically, large numbers of workers
were classified as employed but not at work when they should have been recorded as unemployed
on temporary layoff.
Per agency policy, BLS did not adjust CPS records, but it did provide adjusted estimates of the
unemployment rate. BLS estimated that its categorization error underestimated seasonal y
adjusted unemployment by roughly 0.9 percentage points in March 2020, 4.8 points in April, 3.1
in May, 1.2 in June, 0.9 in July, 0.7 in August, 0.4 in September, 0.3 in October, 0.4 in November,
and 0.6 in December. In January 2021, the error underestimated seasonal y adjusted
unemployment by an estimated 0.6 percentage points. These estimates evaluate what the impact
would be in the worst-case scenario, as the true impact is uncertain. BLS released a statement
regarding the underestimate, noting that, “these assumptions probably overstate the size of the
misclassification error.”27 In later months, BLS made efforts to correct this classification error
during data collection and processing.28
LAUS was impacted by both the low response rate and the categorization error due to its
connection with the CPS. Considering that LAUS is dependent on a number of other data sources

Community Survey and Population Estimates Program; https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm.
21 For further discussion of error, see the “Reliability of the Estimates” section of the Employment Situation report’s
T echnical Note at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm. For a description of LAUS estimation procedures,
see https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm.
22 For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/error-measurements.htm.
23 For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/sampling.htm.
24 See the FAQ BLS produced on this topic for more on the impact of COVID-19 on data collection by month at
https://www.bls.gov/covid19/home.htm.
25 See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-april-2020.htm.
26 See CRS Insight IN11456, COVID-19: Measuring Unemployment, by Lida R. Weinstock.
27 See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-january-2021.htm#ques5.
28 Among other protocols, the Census Bureau monitored survey respon ses in August and marked those they felt could
be misclassified. T hese responses were then re-evaluated. For more on BLS and Census efforts to reduce the
misclassification, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment -situation-covid19-faq-august-2020.htm#ques9.
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that were impacted by COVID-19 in their own right, the net effect of the pandemic on LAUS
estimates is unknown.29
General Data Caveats
Other data considerations include the following:
 Lack of seasonally adjusted data: Seasonal y adjusted data are published by BLS
for selected labor force indicators to better account for seasonality in the trends.30
Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to distinguish between trends related
to the recession and seasonal trends. Where adjusted data are not available, this
report compares year-over-year estimates to minimize seasonal influences.
 Reference week: In general, CPS data are collected for the calendar week
containing the 12th of the month. This could lead to incongruity between actual
labor force conditions over the course of a month and the conditions observed.
 CPS and LAUS comparability: While the LAUS program uses the same
unemployment concepts as the CPS and uses the CPS as an input, LAUS
estimates are based on multiple sources (including administrative data).
Consequently, CPS and LAUS estimates are not directly comparable.
 Statistical significance: CRS used BLS formulas to calculate year-over-year
statistical significance in changes in monthly data. As a tool, statistical
significance does not guarantee that year-over-year changes were meaningful.

Author Information

Gene Falk, Coordinator
Emma C. Nyhof
Specialist in Social Policy
Research Assistant

Jameson A. Carter
Paul D. Romero
Research Assistant
Research Assistant

Isaac A. Nicchitta

Research Assistant

Acknowledgments
The four Research Assistants in CRS’s Domestic Social Policy Division were responsible for the analysis
and writing of this report, under the guidance of Gene Falk, Specialist in Social Policy. Questions from
congressional staff should be directed to Mr. Falk.

29 For more on the impacts of COVID-19 on LAUS and its inputs, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid-
19-pandemic-on-employment-and-unemployment-statistics.htm.
30 See CPS and LAUS documentation for more on seasonal adjustment at https://www.bls.gov/cps/seasonal-
adjustment -methodology.htm and https://www.bls.gov/lau/lauseas.htm.
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Disclaimer
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Congressional Research Service
R46554 · VERSION 7 · UPDATED
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