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Updated May 19, 2020
Belarus: An Overview
In recent years, observers have debated the prospects for
will die of coronavirus in our country” and that seemingly
change in the foreign and domestic policies of Belarus, an
related deaths are due to preexisting conditions.
authoritarian state in Eastern Europe with close economic
and security ties to Russia (see Figure 1). Although the
Economy
U.S.-Belarus relationship has been difficult, the two
After independence, the state continued to play a dominant
countries have taken steps to normalize relations, including
role in Belarus’s economy. Some argue that because the
an agreement to appoint ambassadors for the first time since
government avoided difficult market reforms, Belarus
2008. Few observers anticipate major governance or foreign
experienced a relatively milder post-Soviet decline in the
policy changes in Belarus in the near term. Some, however,
1990s than its neighbors. Others believe Belarus merely
believe incremental shifts may be possible.
postponed necessary reforms; for example, according to the
International Monetary Fund (IMF), “reforms of the large
Congressional policy toward Belarus previously has
state-owned enterprise sector are critical to tackle
focused on the promotion of democracy and human rights,
inefficiencies and increase potential growth.” The IMF
including via the imposition of sanctions. The renewal of
states that the Belarusian government’s preference for a
U.S. diplomatic relations with Belarus and Belarus’s
“gradual, incremental approach” to reform may lead to
growing rift with Russia may be of interest to some
“protracted vulnerabilities.”
Members of Congress.
Figure 1. Belarus at a Glance
Politics
Belarus became independent in 1991, after the collapse of
the Soviet Union. President Alexander Lukashenko was
first elected president in 1994 and has led Belarus for 26
years. The next presidential election is scheduled for
August 2020.
Observers consider Belarus to have an authoritarian system
of governance that restricts most political and civil liberties.
The U.S.-based nongovernmental organization (NGO)
Freedom House gives Belarus a “freedom rating” of “not
free,” the same score it gives Russia.
In recent years, observers have discussed whether the
Sources: International Monetary Fund; U.N. Comtrade Database.
Belarusian government has taken steps to become a “softer”
Graphic produced by CRS.
authoritarian regime or whether such steps are more
symbolic than substantive. The government released several
The export of refined oil products, based on subsidized
political prisoners in 2015. In 2016, for the first time in
crude oil imported from Russia, plays a major role in
years, opposition candidates were allowed to win 2 of the
Belarus’s economy. In 2015-2016, Belarus experienced a
110 seats in the lower house of Belarus’s legislature. In
recession amid declining global oil prices and Russia’s
November 2019, however, pro-government candidates
economic downturn. Over those two years, Belarus’s gross
again won all 110 seats. Human rights observers have
domestic product (GDP) declined by an average of 3.2%
detailed how the Belarusian government suppresses
annually. Economic growth averaged 2.8% a year in 2017-
independent media and restricts freedom of assembly.
2018 and slowed to an estimated 1.2% in 2019, due to the
Coronavirus Response
rising cost of Russian crude oil imports (see “Relations with
Russia,” below). The IMF estimates that Belarus’s GDP
Belarus has been a relative outlier in Europe in its response
could decline by 6% in 2020 due to the coronavirus
to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.
pandemic.
Lukashenko has spoken derisively about public health
measures other countries have taken. The government has
Russia is Belarus’s largest trading partner. In 2019, half of
not instituted official closures or social distancing policies,
Belarus’s merchandise trade was with Russia. The
although reports indicate that many Belarusians, local
European Union (EU) as a whole was Belarus’s second-
government bodies, and some institutions have taken
largest trading partner, making up more than 20% of its
preventative measures on their own. As of May 19, 2020,
merchandise trade. Belarus’s next-largest trading partners
Belarus officially reported more than 31,500 coronavirus
were Ukraine (8%) and China (6%). Less than 1% of
cases and 175 deaths. Many observers believe the number
Belarus’s total merchandise trade is with the United States.
of deaths is understated; Lukashenko has said that “no one
In 2019, Belarus’s main exports were mineral fuels (mainly
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Belarus: An Overview
refined oil products, 22%), potassium fertilizers (potash,
rapprochement began in 2015, the year after Russia’s
11%), motor vehicles and parts (8%), and dairy products
invasion of Ukraine. After the Belarusian government
(8%). Belarus also has a developing information and
released several political prisoners that year, the U.S.
communications technology industry that exports digital
government waived human rights-related sanctions it had
products and services globally, including to U.S.-based
imposed on a major state-owned petrochemical company
companies.
and eight subsidiaries. The EU suspended and then lifted
most of its human rights-related sanctions on Belarus.
Relations with Russia
Belarus is one of Russia’s closest security and economic
As of May 2020, the United States retains human rights-
partners. It is a member of the Russia-led Collective
related sanctions on 16 Belarusians, including Lukashenko.
Security Treaty Organization and shares an air defense
Sanctions on Belarus were first introduced in the Belarus
system with Russia, although Belarus declines to host a
Democracy Act of 2004 (P.L. 108-347, 22 U.S.C. 5811)
Russian military airbase that Moscow has long requested.
and were expanded in the Belarus Democracy
Belarus also is a member of the Russia-led Eurasian
Reauthorization Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-480) and the Belarus
Economic Union (EEU) and relies heavily on Russian
Democracy and Human Rights Act of 2011 (P.L. 112-82).
subsidized natural gas and oil and Russian (and Chinese)
loans.
The United States and Belarus have taken steps to
normalize their relations. Since 2008, the United States had
In addition, Belarus and Russia are members of a bilateral
a limited diplomatic presence and no ambassador in
“union state” that came into effect in 2000. In practice, this
Belarus, originally due to restrictions imposed by Minsk.
union is largely aspirational. A common labor market is the
Since 2015, senior U.S. officials have made periodic public
main characteristic distinguishing it from the economic
visits to Belarus. Then-National Security Adviser John
integration Belarus and Russia have via EEU membership.
Bolton visited Minsk in August 2019, and Secretary of
State Michael Pompeo visited in February 2020.
Tensions between Belarus and Russia have increased in
recent years, with the two countries at odds over oil and gas
In September 2019, U.S. Under Secretary of State for
prices and supplies, Belarusian debt, and Russian border
Political Affairs David Hale and Belarusian Foreign
controls and trade restrictions. In 2019, Russia began
Minister Vladimir Makei stated that the two countries were
reducing subsidies for Belarus’s crude oil imports, leading
ready to exchange ambassadors “as the next step in
to a decline in Belarus’s revenues from refined oil exports.
normalizing our relationship.” In April 2020, President
For months, the Russian government said compensation for
Trump announced his intent to nominate the first U.S.
Belarus’s losses would be possible only as part of an
ambassador to Belarus in more than a decade.
agreement to deepen the integration of the two countries.
The range of issues in the bilateral U.S.-Belarus
In December 2019, negotiations on oil prices and increased
relationship has increased. During a September 2019 visit
integration failed, leading to a temporary halt in Russian oil
to Minsk, Under Secretary Hale said the United States
exports to Belarus. Shipments resumed after a few days, but
“welcomes Belarus’ increased cooperation on issues of
at a greatly reduced volume. Oil exports to Belarus returned
non-proliferation, border security, economic cooperation,
to their usual volumes in April 2020, reportedly at lower
and information sharing on matters of shared security.” In
cost (due in part to a decline in global oil prices). The
Minsk in February 2020, Secretary Pompeo said U.S.
dispute led Belarus to seek alternative suppliers to
companies were prepared to export oil to Belarus at
supplement its oil imports from Russia.
competitive market prices in response to Belarus’s interest
in reducing its dependence on Russian imports. On May 15,
Tensions between Belarus and Russia relate in part to
2020, Secretary Pompeo announced the first shipment of
Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine. Given the possibility
U.S. crude oil to Belarus would depart that week.
that Russia could one day take similar action against
Belarus to secure the two countries’ integration,
The United States provided a total of about $51 million in
Lukashenko reportedly has become wary of Russian
assistance to Belarus from FY2014 to FY2019. U.S.
intentions and seeks to protect Belarus’s national
assistance to Belarus has been designed to support civil
sovereignty and his regime’s independence. In part, this has
society, small business development, and vulnerable
meant making overtures to the United States and the EU.
populations. For FY2020, the Senate Appropriations
Committee recommended $9 million; the final FY2020
Nonetheless, Lukashenko remains wary of domestic
assistance amount is not yet available.
discontent that could lead to protests and destabilization.
This wariness has encouraged him to stay close to Moscow
EU assistance to Belarus from 2014 to 2020 amounted to
for economic support. The Russian government, for its part,
€170 million (about $185 million). The European Bank for
has sought loyalty from Lukashenko while attempting to
Reconstruction and Development and the European
limit the economic cost of subsidizing his regime.
Investment Bank also have financed a variety of
development projects in Belarus.
Relations with the United States and EU
U.S. and EU relations with Belarus have been challenging
Cory Welt, Specialist in European Affairs
for many years, although all parties periodically have
sought to improve relations. Efforts to achieve a new
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Belarus: An Overview
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