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April 24, 2019
U.S. Trade: Recent Trends and Developments
Background
Table 1. U.S. Trade in 2018
Over the past two years, Congress has demonstrated
significant interest in U.S. and international trade trends as
U.S.$
% Change
part of its efforts to examine U.S. trade policy and key U.S.
(billions)
from 2017*
trading relationships. In particular, demand for comparative
analysis of bilateral trade flows and balances has
Total Exports
2,500.8
6.4
heightened as the Trump Administration takes actions with
Exports of Goods
1,672.3
7.7
the intention of reducing U.S. bilateral trade deficits,
enforcing U.S. trade laws and agreements, and promoting
Exports of Services
828.4
3.9
what it considers to be “free,” “fair,” and “reciprocal” trade.
Total Imports
3,122.9
7.6
The role of Congress in trade policy stems from a number
of overlapping responsibilities, including its constitutional
Imports of Goods
2,563.7
8.6
authority over regulating commerce with foreign countries
Imports of Services
559.2
3.1
and broad oversight responsibility over the performance of
the economy. The changing dynamics and composition of
Total Balance (Deficit)
-622.1
12.6
U.S. trade are important to Members, because they can
Balance on Goods (Deficit)
-891.3
10.4
affect the overall health of the U.S. economy, the success of
U.S. workers and firms, and the U.S. standard of living.
Balance on Services (Surplus)
269.2
5.5
U.S. Trade in Goods
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 17, 2019.
U.S. merchandise exports totaled $1.67 trillion in 2018, a
Note: * not adjusted for inflation.
7.7% ($118.9 billion) increase from the 2017 level (Table
U.S. merchandise imports from all top trading partners—
1). The value of U.S. merchandise imports was $2.5 trillion
except Hong Kong—increased in 2018. The largest
over the same period, up 8.6% ($202.7 billion) from 2017.
increases in imports were $53.4 billion (12.2%) from the
U.S. imports increased more than U.S. exports, leading to
EU, $34.0 billion (6.7%) from China, and a $32.9 billion
an increase of $83.8 billion (10.4%) in the U.S.
(10.3%) from Mexico. In percentage terms, the largest
merchandise trade deficit to $891.3 billion.
increases were from Singapore (40.0%), Saudi Arabia
Trade in Goods with Leading Partners
(27.6%), and the UK (14.6%). U.S. imports from Hong
Kong decreased 12.8%.
In 2018, the European Union (EU)—as a single entity—
was the United States’ top trading partner in terms of two-
U.S. Trade in Services
way (exports plus imports) merchandise trade, followed by
In 2018, U.S. exports of services increased 3.9% ($30.7
China, Canada, and Mexico. China’s share in U.S.
billion), from $797.7 billion to $828.4 billion, while U.S.
merchandise trade has increased dramatically over the past
services imports grew 3.1% ($16.7 billion), from $542.5
two decades, from 5.8% in 2000 to 15.6% in 2018. Ranked
billion to $559.2 billion. The U.S. surplus in services trade
by exports, the EU was the leading market for U.S. exports,
increased 5.5% ($14.0 billion) to $269.2 billion.
which totaled $320.5 billion (19.2% of all U.S. exports).
Canada was the second-largest export market ($299.4
Trade in Services with Leading Partners
billion worth of U.S. exports, or 17.9%), followed by
The EU was the United States’ top trading partner in terms
Mexico and China. In terms of imports, China was the
of two-way (exports plus imports) trade in services in 2018,
leading source of U.S. imports ($540.3 billion, or 21.1% of
while the largest single-country services trading partners
all U.S. imports), followed by the EU ($490.8 billion, or
were the UK, Canada, Japan, and China. Since 2000, the
19.1%), Mexico, and Canada. The United States had
share of U.S. services trade with partners like the UK,
merchandise trade deficits with most of its major partners in
Canada, and Japan has decreased, while that of China and
2018, including with China ($419.3 billion), the EU ($170.3
India, for example, has grown dramatically. The EU was
billion), Mexico ($87.3 billion), and Japan ($68.9 billion).
the largest export market for U.S. services in 2018. It was
also the largest foreign supplier of U.S. services imports,
U.S. merchandise exports to most major trading partners
accounting for $255.9 billion (30.1%) of total U.S. services
increased from 2017 to 2018. The largest was a $37.5
exports and for $196.01 billion (35.1%) of total U.S.
billion (12.5%) increase in U.S. exports to the EU. It was
services imports. After the EU, the top markets for U.S.
followed by a $21.7 billion increase in exports to Mexico
services exports were the UK, Canada, China, and Japan,
(up 8.9%) and a $16.5 billion increase to Canada (up 5.8%).
while the top sources of U.S. services imports were the UK,
In percentage terms, on a country basis, the largest
Canada, Germany, and Japan. In 2018, the United States
increases in U.S. exports in 2018 were to India (29.0%),
maintained a services trade surplus with every major
Italy (25.7%), and the UK (17.8%). U.S. exports to China
services trading partner except Italy ($3.6 billion deficit),
and Saudi Arabia decreased 7.2% and 16.7%, respectively.
India ($3.0 billion), and Taiwan ($1.6 billion).
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U.S. Trade: Recent Trends and Developments
U.S. services exports to nearly all leading trading partners
Table 2. U.S. Trade in Goods and Services in 2018
increased in 2018. Exports declined to Japan (down $1.0
(in billions of U.S. dollars)
billion, or 2.2%) and Saudi Arabia (down $430 million, or
Total
4.7%). The largest increase in value was $12.5 billion to the
Trade
Exports
Imports
Balance
EU, followed by $5.3 billion to the UK and $3.4 billion to
Canada. In percentage terms, on a country basis, the largest
European Union*
1,263.2
576.4
686.8
-110.4
increases in U.S. services exports were to Singapore
China
738.6
179.9
558.7
-378.7
(16.3%), France (10.5%), Hong Kong (9.8%), and India
(8.6%).
Canada
721.2
361.2
360.0
1.2
U.S. services imports from all but three of the major trading
Mexico
677.8
299.7
378.1
-78.5
partners increased in 2018. Imports from both Brazil and
Japan
300.3
121.1
179.1
-58.0
Germany fell last year, down 12.4% ($896 million) and
6.8% ($2.4 billion), respectively. The largest increases in
United Kingdom
263.5
141.5
122.0
19.6
imports were from the EU ($6.4 billion), UK ($4.0 billion),
and Canada ($3.5 billion). In percentage terms, the largest
Germany
251.7
92.4
159.2
-66.8
increase in U.S. services imports in 2018 was from Saudi
South Korea
169.4
82.0
87.3
-5.3
Arabia (up 30.9%), followed by South Korea (up 13.7%)
and Singapore (up 9.4%).
India
142.3
59.0
83.3
-24.3
Figure 1. U.S. Trade Balance
France
128.8
57.7
71.0
-13.3
(in billions of current U.S. dollars)
Brazil
102.3
66.2
36.1
30.1
Rest of the World
2,128.0
1,040.0
1,088.0
-48.1
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 17, 2019.
Note: * includes trade with all 28 member states combined.
Limitations of Trade Data
The growth in global production chains, intrafirm trade, and
trade in intermediate goods means that traditional
accounting methods may distort trade data and not fully
reflect the source of resources used in producing goods and
services. This makes it increasingly difficult to understand
and interpret the implications of trade data trends for the
U.S. economy. Thus, the conventional trade data that often
drive policy discussions (and used here) may underestimate
trade in services, as the data are not measured on a value-
added basis and do not attribute any portion of the traded
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 17, 2019.
value of manufactured and agricultural products to services
inputs. Intermediate services, such as transportation and
U.S. Trade in Goods and Services
distribution, R&D, design and engineering, and business
In 2018, U.S. exports of goods and services totaled $2.5
services, are embedded within a value chain as inputs, and
trillion, while imports totaled $3.1 trillion, resulting in an
thus are often not visible in the data.
overall deficit of $622.1 billion, up 12.6% from 2017, but
down from the all-time high level registered in 2006
Issues for Congress
($761.7 billion). The deficit on goods, however, increased
The changes in U.S. trade patterns pose both opportunities
to an all-time high of $891.3 billion, from $807.5 billion in
and challenges for the United States. These developments
2017 (Figure 1).
have intensified congressional interest in U.S. trade policy
Trade in Goods and Services with Leading Partners
and demand for information and analysis of bilateral U.S.
trade flows. In the coming months, Members may face
The EU was the United States’ largest market for U.S.
issues such as shaping U.S. trade policy to reflect this
goods and services exports in 2018, accounting for $576.4
changing composition of trade, enhancing the competitive
billion (23%) of total U.S. exports, as well as the leading
position of U.S. firms and workers, and addressing tensions,
source of U.S. imports, which totaled $686.8 billion (22%
trade barriers, and issues raised by the growing role of
of total U.S. imports) (Table 2). Canada was the second-
emerging economies in the global economy. Also,
largest U.S. export market, with $361.2 billion worth of
questions affecting U.S. trade trends could arise as the
U.S. exports (14.4% of total U.S. exports), and the fourth-
Trump Administration renegotiates FTAs and pursues new
largest source of U.S. imports, which totaled $360.0 billion
ones. Members might weigh potential costs and benefits to
(11.5%). The share of China in U.S. trade has increased
their constituents—and to the U.S. economy as a whole—as
dramatically over the past few decades. In 2000, it
they debate and potentially ratify these agreements.
accounted for 2.0% of total U.S. exports and 7.1% of total
U.S. imports. Last year, China’s share stood at 7.2% of total
Andres B. Schwarzenberg, Analyst in International Trade
U.S. exports and 17.9% of U.S. imports.
and Finance
IF11189
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U.S. Trade: Recent Trends and Developments
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