January 19, 2018
Belarus: An Overview
In recent years, observers have looked for signs of change
Figure 1. Belarus Facts
in the foreign and domestic policies of Belarus, a
nondemocratic state in Eastern Europe that is highly
dependent on Russia. The U.S.-Belarus relationship is not
an easy one, though the two countries periodically have
sought to increase their engagement. Few anticipate major
governance or foreign policy changes in Belarus in the near
term. Observers debate, however, whether incremental
shifts may be possible.
Political Overview
Belarus became independent in 1991, after the collapse of
the Soviet Union. President Alexander Lukashenko, who
was first elected president in 1994, has led Belarus for more
than 23 years.
Observers consider Belarus to have an authoritarian system
of governance that restricts most political and civil liberties.
The U.S.-based nongovernmental organization Freedom
House gives Belarus a “freedom rating” of “not free,” the

same score it gives Russia.
Sources: CRS Graphic. Map created by Hannah Fischer using data
from Department of State (2015) and Esri (2016). CIA World
In recent years, some observers have suggested that the
Belarusian government has taken steps to become a “softer”
Factbook.

authoritarian regime, while others consider such steps to be
Relations with Russia
more symbolic than substantive. The government released
Belarus is one of Russia’s closest allies and economic
several political prisoners in 2015. In 2016 elections,
partners. It is a member of the Russian-led Collective
opposition candidates were allowed to win 2 of the 110
Security Treaty Organization (a security alliance) and
seats in the lower house of the Belarusian parliament. In
shares a joint air defense system with Russia.
2017, the civic movement Havary Pravdu (Tell the Truth)
was officially registered after trying to do so for seven
In September 2017, Belarus hosted a portion of the Russia-
years.
led Zapad 2017 military exercises. The exercises centered
on a simulated defense against attack by an alliance of
Meanwhile, the government continued to crack down on
fictional states (including one located in western Belarus)
political protest and opposition. In February-March 2017,
seeking to undermine Belarus’s ties to Russia.
the government confronted a rare outburst of economic
protest across the country, focused on the government’s
Belarus is also a member of the Eurasian Economic Union
imposition of what many referred to as a “social parasite”
and relies heavily on Russian loans and subsidized gas and
tax of approximately $250 on the unemployed and
oil. In particular, Belarus benefits from the import of
underemployed. These protests appeared to be more of a
subsidized crude oil, which it refines for export.
grassroots movement than previous demonstrations, but
they dovetailed with more traditional “Freedom Day”
Tensions between Belarus and Russia have been visible in
protests on March 25, an annual commemoration of
Belarus’
recent years. The two countries have been at odds over oil
s short-lived independence from Russia in 1918.
and gas prices and supplies, Belarusian debt, Russian
border controls and trade restrictions, and other issues.
Although the government suspended the tax, security forces
Belarus also has resisted hosting a Russian military airbase.
detained hundreds, including journalists and activists. They
also arrested other individuals, accusing them of belonging
In a February 2017 speech, Lukashenko extensively
to nationalist and youth groups intending to foment violent
criticized what he characterized as Russia’s overbearing
unrest (though the government dropped these charges at the
policy toward Belarus. Afterward, Lukashenko and Russian
end of November 2017). During the year, some opposition
President Vladimir Putin struck a deal that appeared to
leaders were imprisoned for various infractions, but for
resolve some key differences concerning the oil and gas
several days at a time as opposed to months or years (as has
trade, although some observers consider the deal temporary
been the case in the past).
and anticipate future disputes.
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link to page 2 link to page 2 Belarus: An Overview
Tensions relate in part to Russia’s military actions in
EU assistance to Belarus from 2014 to 2017 amounted to
Ukraine, according to some observers. Given the possibility
€91.5 million (around $110 million at the current exchange
that Russia could take such action against Belarus one day,
rate). The United States provides a smaller amount of
Lukashenko reportedly has become more wary of Russian
assistance to Belarus: around $35 million from FY2014 to
intentions and has sought to protect Belarus’s national
FY2017 (including $9 million for FY2017). Current U.S.
sovereignty and his own regime’s independence. In part,
assistance supports civil society, small business
this has meant making overtures to the West (see “Relations
development, and vulnerable populations. For FY2018, the
with the West,” below).
Trump Administration requested no assistance for Belarus.
The Senate Appropriations Committee recommended
At the same time, Lukashenko is wary of popular protests
$9 million.
that could lead to domestic destabilization. This wariness,
in addition to Russian subsidies, encourages him to stay
The Economy
close to Moscow. The Russian government, for its part,
Since independence, the Belarusian state has played a large
appears to seek as much loyalty from Lukashenko as it can
role in the country’s economy. Some observers suggest that
while limiting the cost of subsidizing his regime with
because the government avoided difficult market reforms, it
discounted energy prices and loans.
experienced a relatively milder post-Soviet decline than its
neighbors. Between 2004 and 2008, its gross domestic
Relations with the West
product (GDP) grew 10% a year on average.
U.S. and European Union (EU) relations with Belarus have
been challenging for many years, although all sides
At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
periodically have sought to improve relations. The latest
has noted that the state’s large role in the economy
attempt at rapprochement began in 2015, in the wake of
“distort[s] resource allocation and efficiency.” From 2012
Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. After the Belarusian
to 2014, GDP growth was less than 2% a year. Since 2015,
government released several political prisoners that year,
Belarus’s economy has suffered further from declining oil
the EU suspended and then lifted most of its human rights-
prices and Russia’s own economic downturn. Belarus’s
related sanctions against Belarus.
GDP declined by 3.9% in 2015 and 2.7% in 2016. Oil
export revenues declined substantially between 2012 and
The United States has retained human rights-related
2016.
sanctions on Belarus. Sanctions were first introduced in the
Belarus Democracy Act of 2004 (P.L. 108-347, 22 U.S.C.
Although Belarus’s recession has ended, observers estimate
5811) and expanded in the Belarus Democracy
growth of less than 2% in 2017. The IMF projects around
Reauthorization Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-480) and the Belarus
2% annual growth for Belarus over the medium term, due
Democracy and Human Rights Act of 2011 (P.L. 112-82).
to “negative demographics, weak credit conditions, and
Since 2015, sanctions have been waived for several state-
lagging productivity and competitiveness.”
owned companies.
Observers suggest that the Belarusian government
The United States has a limited diplomatic presence and no
recognizes the need for at least some economic reforms.
ambassador in Belarus, originally due to restrictions
The IMF states that the government is taking steps to
imposed by Minsk in 2008. In recent years, Belarus has
improve the operations of state-owned enterprises, which
indicated a willingness to again exchange ambassadors. employ around half of Belarusian workers and are
responsible for more than 60% of total output. It also states
Belarus recently began to welcome more tourism. In
that the government seeks to encourage the growth of
February 2017, Belarus introduced visa-free travel for five
small- and medium-sized businesses and attract foreign
days for travelers from around 80 countries. Reportedly,
investment. However, the IMF notes that “progress in many
most new travelers came from Germany, Poland, Italy, the
areas is slow and implementation has lagged.”
United States, and the United Kingdom, and tourism
revenues rose in 2017.
Belarus’s largest trading partner is Russia. In 2016, more
than 50% of Belarus’s merchandise trade was with Russia.
Belarus also has been more diplomatically engaged in
The EU as a whole is Belarus’s second-largest trading
Europe. In addition to hosting the Minsk process to resolve
partner, making up more than 20% of its merchandise trade
the conflict in Ukraine, in 2017 Belarus hosted the
in 2016.
Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe
(OSCE) Parliamentary Assembly, chaired the Central
Belarus’s next-largest trading partners are Ukraine (less
European Initiative (a regional forum), and hosted several
than 10%) and China (around 5%). In 2016, its main
EU delegations. It also invited dozens of foreign
exports were oil and mineral fuels (21%), fertilizers (10%),
representatives, including one from the U.S. Helsinki
dairy products (8%), motor vehicles (8%), and industrial
Commission, to attend events related to Zapad 2017 as
machinery (6%).
“distinguished visitors” (not as part of an observation
mission). Despite expectations that Lukashenko would
Cory Welt, Analyst in European Affairs
attend the EU’s Eastern Partnership Summit in November
2017, he ultimately declined.
IF10814

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Belarus: An Overview



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