Navy Force Structure and Shipbuilding Plans: Background and Issues for Congress

June 16, 2017 (RL32665)
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Contents

Figures

Tables

Appendixes

Summary

The current and planned size and composition of the Navy, the rate of Navy ship procurement, and the prospective affordability of the Navy's shipbuilding plans have been oversight matters for the congressional defense committees for many years. The Navy's proposed FY2018 budget, as amended on May 24, 2017, requests the procurement of nine new ships, including one Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) class aircraft carrier, two Virginia-class attack submarines, two DDG-51 class destroyers, two Littoral Combat Ships (LCSs), one TAO-205 class oiler, and one towing, salvage, and rescue ship.

On December 15, 2016, the Navy released a new force-structure goal that calls for achieving and maintaining a fleet of 355 ships of certain types and numbers. Key points about this new 355-ship force-level goal include the following:


Navy Force Structure and Shipbuilding Plans: Background and Issues for Congress

Introduction

This report presents background information and issues for Congress concerning the Navy's force structure and shipbuilding plans. The current and planned size and composition of the Navy, the rate of Navy ship procurement, and the prospective affordability of the Navy's shipbuilding plans have been oversight matters for the congressional defense committees for many years. The Navy's proposed FY2018 budget, as amended on May 24, 2017, requests the procurement of nine new ships, including one Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) class aircraft carrier, two Virginia-class attack submarines, two DDG-51 class destroyers, two Littoral Combat Ships (LCSs), one TAO-205 class oiler, and one towing, salvage, and rescue ship. On December 15, 2016, the Navy released a new force-structure goal that calls for achieving and maintaining a fleet of 355 ships of certain types and numbers.

The issue for Congress is whether to approve, reject, or modify the Navy's force structure and shipbuilding plans. Decisions that Congress makes on this issue can substantially affect Navy capabilities and funding requirements, and the U.S. shipbuilding industrial base.

Detailed coverage of certain individual Navy shipbuilding programs can be found in the following CRS reports:

For a discussion of the strategic and budgetary context in which U.S. Navy force structure and shipbuilding plans may be considered, see Appendix A.

Background

Navy's New 355-Ship Ship Force-Structure Goal

Introduction

On December 15, 2016, the Navy released a new force-structure goal that calls for achieving and maintaining a fleet of 355 ships of certain types and numbers. The 355-ship force-level goal is the result of a new Force Structure Assessment (FSA) conducted by the Navy. An FSA is an analysis in which the Navy solicits inputs from U.S. regional combatant commanders (CCDRs) regarding the types and amounts of Navy capabilities that CCDRs deem necessary for implementing the Navy's portion of the national military strategy, and then translates those CCDR inputs into required numbers of ships, using current and projected Navy ship types.1 The analysis takes into account Navy capabilities for both warfighting and day-to-day forward-deployed presence. The Navy conducts an FSA every few years, as circumstances require, to determine its force-structure goal.

The new 355-ship force-level goal replaces a 308-ship force-level goal that the Navy released in March 2015. The 355-ship force-level goal is the largest force-level goal that the Navy has released since a 375-ship force-level goal that was in place in 2002-2004. In the years between that 375-ship goal and the new 355-ship goal, Navy force-level goals were generally in the low 300s (see Appendix B). The actual size of the Navy in recent years has generally been between 270 and 290 ships.

Table 1 compares the Navy's new 355-ship force-level goal to its previous 308-ship force-level goal. As can be seen in the table, compared to the previous 308-ship force-level goal, the new 355-ship force-level goal includes 47 additional ships, or about 15% more ships, including 18 attack submarines, 1 aircraft carrier, 16 large surface combatants (i.e., cruisers and destroyers), 4 amphibious ships, 3 combat logistics force (i.e., resupply) ships, 3 expeditionary support base ships (or ESBs—these were previously called Afloat Forward Staging Bases, or AFSBs), and 2 command and support ships. The 34 additional attack submarines and large surface combatants account for about 72% of the 47 additional ships.

Table 1. New 355-Ship Plan Compared to Previous 308-Ship Plan

Ship type

355-ship plan of December 2016

308-ship plan of March 2015

Difference

Difference (%)

Number of ships that would need to be added to 30-year shipbuilding plan to achieve and maintain 355-ship fleet

 

 

 

 

 

CRS estimate of addition to Navy FY17 30-year (FY17-FY46) shipbuilding plan to maintain 355-ship fleet through end of 30-year period (i.e., through FY2046)

CBO estimate of addition to notional FY18 30-year (FY18-FY47) shipbuilding plan to maintain 355-ship fleet 10 years beyond end of 30-year period (i.e., through FY2057)

Ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs)

12

12

0

0

0

0

Attack submarines (SSNs)

66

48

18

37.5

19

16 to 19

Aircraft carriers (CVNs)

12

11

1

9.1

2

4

Large surface combatants (LSCs) (i.e., cruisers and destroyers)

104

88

16

18.2

23

24 to 25

Small surface combatants (i.e., LCSs, frigates, mine warship ships)

52

52

0

0

8

10

Amphibious ships

38

34

4

11.8

0 to 5

7

Combat logistic force (CLF) ships (i.e., resupply ships)

32

29

3

10.3

2 or 3

5

Expeditionary Fast transports (EPFs)

10

10

0

0

0

0

Expeditionary Support Base ships (ESBs)

6

3

3

100

3

3

Command and support ships

23

21

2

9.5

0 to 4

4

TOTAL

355

308

47

15.3

57 to 67

73 to 77

Average additional shipbuilding funds per year needed over 30-year period, compared to amounts needed to implement FY2017 30-year shipbuilding plan

$4.6 billion per year to $5.1 billion per year in additional funds, using today's shipbuilding costs

About $5.4 billion per year in additional funds, in constant FY2017 dollars

Average additional shipbuilding funds + ship operation and support (O&S) costs per year to maintain Navy's 355-ship fleet once it is achieved

not estimated

$11 billion per year to $23 billion per year in FY2017 dollars, not including additional costs for manned aircraft, unmanned systems, and weapons.

Source: Table prepared by CRS based on Navy's FY2017 shipbuilding plan and information provided by CBO to CRS on April 26, 2017. The CRS and CBO estimates shown in the final two columns assume no service life extensions of existing Navy ships and no reactivations of retired Navy ships.

Notes: EPFs were previously called Joint High Speed Vessels (JHSVs). ESBs were previously called Afloat Forward Staging Base ships (AFSBs). The figures for additional small surface combatants shown in the final two columns are the net results of adding 12 small surface combatants in the earlier years of the 30-year plan and removing 4 or 2 small surface combatants, respectively, from the later years of the 30-year plan.

Apparent Reasons for Increasing Force-Level Goal from 308 Ships

The roughly 15% increase in the new 355-ship plan over the previous 308-ship plan can be viewed as a Navy response to, among other things, China's continuing naval modernization effort;2 resurgent Russian naval activity, particularly in the Mediterranean Sea and the North Atlantic Ocean;3 and challenges that the Navy has sometimes faced, given the current total number of ships in the Navy, in meeting requests from the various regional U.S. combatant commanders for day-to-day in-region presence of forward-deployed Navy ships.4 To help meet requests for forward-deployed Navy ships, Navy officials in recent years have sometimes extended deployments of ships beyond (sometimes well beyond) the standard length of seven months, leading to concerns about the burden being placed on Navy ship crews and wear and tear on Navy ships.5 Navy officials have testified that fully satisfying requests from regional U.S. military commanders for forward-deployed Navy ships would require a fleet of substantially more than 308 ships. For example, Navy officials testified in March 2014 that fully meeting such requests would require a Navy of 450 ships.6

In releasing its 355-ship plan on December 15, 2016, the Navy stated that

Since the last full FSA was conducted in 2012, and updated in 2014, the global security environment changed significantly, with our potential adversaries developing capabilities that challenge our traditional military strengths and erode our technological advantage. Within this new security environment, defense planning guidance directed that the capacity and capability of the Joint Force must be sufficient to defeat one adversary while denying the objectives of a second adversary.7

Compared to Trump Campaign Organization Goal of 350 Ships

The figure of 355 ships appears close to an objective of building toward a fleet of 350 ships that was announced by the Trump campaign organization during the 2016 presidential election campaign. The 355-ship goal, however, reflects the national military strategy that was in place in 2016 (i.e., the Obama Administration's national military strategy). A January 27, 2017, national security presidential memorandum on rebuilding the U.S. Armed Forces signed by President Trump states: "Upon transmission of a new National Security Strategy to Congress, the Secretary [of Defense] shall produce a National Defense Strategy (NDS). The goal of the NDS shall be to give the President and the Secretary maximum strategic flexibility and to determine the force structure necessary to meet requirements."8

The Trump campaign organization's vision for national defense comprised eight elements, one of which was to "Rebuild the U.S. Navy toward a goal of 350 ships, as the bipartisan National Defense Panel has recommended."9 The Trump campaign organization did not delineate the composition of its 350-ship fleet. The figure of 350 ships appeared to be a rounded-off version of a recommendation for a fleet of up to (and possibly more than) 346 ships that was included in the 2014 report of the National Defense Panel (NDP), a panel that provided an independent review of DOD's report on its 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR).10

Four years before that, a fleet of 346 ships was recommended in the 2010 report of the independent panel that reviewed DOD's report on its 2010 QDR. The 2010 independent panel report further specified that the figure of 346 ships included 11 aircraft carriers, 55 attack submarines (SSNs), and 4 guided missile submarines (SSGNs).11

Seventeen years earlier, a fleet of 346 ships was recommended in DOD's 1993 report on its Bottom-Up Review (BUR), a major review of U.S. defense strategy, plans, and programs that was prompted by the end of the Cold War.12 The 2014 NDP report cited above referred explicitly to the BUR in making its recommendation for future fleet size:

We believe the fleet-size requirement to be somewhere between the 2012 Future Year Defense Program (FYDP) goal of 323 ships and the 346 ships enumerated in the [1993] BUR, depending on the desired "high-low mix [of ships],"13 and an even larger fleet may be necessary if the risk of conflict in the Western Pacific increases.14

Additional Shipbuilding Needed to Achieve and Maintain 355-Ship Fleet

CRS and CBO Estimates

Although the 355-ship plan includes 47 more ships than the previous 308-ship plan, as shown in the final two columns of Table 1, more than 47 ships would need to be added to the Navy's 30-year shipbuilding plan to achieve and maintain the Navy's 355-ship fleet, unless the Navy extends the service lives of existing ships beyond currently planned figures and/or reactivates recently retired ships. This is because the FY2017 30-year shipbuilding plan does not include enough ships to fully populate all elements of the 308-ship fleet across the entire 30-year period, and because some ships that will retire over the 30-year period that would not need to be replaced to maintain the 308-ship fleet would need to be replaced to maintain the 355-ship fleet. As shown in the final two columns of Table 1:

Navy February 2017 White Paper on Notional FY2017-FY2023 Shipbuilding and Aircraft Procurement Increases

A February 2017 Navy white paper entitled "United States Navy Accelerated Fleet Plan" sets forth "a path to expeditiously build capacity and improve lethality of the fleet" as "a first step towards a framework to develop strategic guidance and identify the investments needed to reinvigorate our naval forces."16 The cover memorandum to the white paper states that the white paper addresses the following question: "How rapidly could the Navy increase its force size guided by operational requirements, industrial base capacity, and good stewardship of the taxpayers' money?" The results of the analysis, the cover memo states, "could be considered as a 'bounding case' for a future plan to recover from a long period of deficit [i.e., less than optimal] investment." The white paper presents notional increases in shipbuilding and aircraft procurement for the seven-year period FY2017-FY2023. Table 2 shows those notional increases.

Table 2. Navy Notional Accelerated Fleet Plan: Shipbuilding and Aircraft Procurement

From February 2017 Navy white paper

 

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

Total

Shipbuilding

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Navy FY2017 shipbuilding plan

7

8

7

8

8

10

11

59

Notional accelerated plan

12

12

11

13

13

13

14

88

Difference

+5

+4

+4

+5

+5

+3

+3

+29

Aircraft procurement

Navy FY2017 aircraft plan

86

95

101

76

93

98

107

656

Notional accelerated plan

137

140

156

144

142

145

134

998

Difference

+51

+45

+55

+68

+49

+47

+27

+342

Source: United States Navy Accelerated Fleet Plan, undated, p. 4, with cover memorandum from the Secretary of the Navy to the Secretary of Defense, February 9, 2017, posted at InsideDefense.com (subscription required) April 6, 2017.

The white paper states that these notional increases are

the maximum number of additional ships and aircraft that the Navy could purchase over the next seven years to get to required fleets levels as quickly as possible, relative to the current budget plan.... The Navy's accelerated plan... sets the Navy on a path that is achievable with low levels of technical risk, reduces future costs, and provides capabilities that the Navy is highly confident will remain relevant over time."17

Table 3 shows, by individual program, the additional shipbuilding summarized in Table 2. As can be seen in Table 3, compared to the Navy's FY2017 budget submission, the Navy's notional accelerated fleet plan includes the following additional ships, among others, during the seven-year period FY2017-FY2023:

Table 3. Navy Notional Accelerated Fleet Plan: Shipbuilding by Program

From February 2017 Navy white paper

 

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

Total

Columbia class ballistic missile submarine (SSBN)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY2017 budget

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

1

Accelerated fleet plan

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

1

Virginia class attack submarine (SSN)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY2017 budget

2

2

2

2

1

2

2

13

Accelerated fleet plan

2

2

2

2

2

3

3

16

Ford (CVN-78) class aircraft carrier

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY2017 budget

 

1

 

 

 

 

1

2

Accelerated fleet plan

 

1

 

 

 

1

 

2

DDG-51 class destroyer

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY2017 budget

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

14

Accelerated fleet plan

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

21

Littoral Combat Ship/Frigate (LCS/FF)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY2017 budget

2

1

1

1

2

2

2

11

Accelerated fleet plan

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

14

LHA-6 class amphibious assault ship

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY2017 budget

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

Accelerated fleet plan

1

 

 

1

 

 

1

3

LPD-17 class amphibious ship

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY2017 budget

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0

Accelerated fleet plan

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

LX(R) class amphibious ship

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY2017 budget

 

 

 

1

 

1

1

3

Accelerated fleet plan

 

 

1

1

1

1

1

5

TAO-205 class oiler

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY0217 budget

 

1

1

1

1

1

1

6

Accelerated fleet plan

1

1

1

2

2

2

2

11

AS(X) submarine tender

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY2017

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Accelerated fleet plan

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TAGOS(X) ocean surveillance ship

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY2017 budget

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

1

Accelerated fleet plan

 

 

 

 

1

 

1

2

TATS(X) fleet towing, salvage, and rescue ship

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY2017 budget

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Accelerated fleet plan

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TEPF expeditionary fast transport

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY2017 budget

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0

Accelerated fleet plan

1

1

 

 

 

 

 

2

TESB expeditionary support base ships

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY2017 budget

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0

Accelerated fleet plan

 

1

1

1

 

 

 

3

TOTAL

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY2017 budget

7

8

7

8

8

10

11

59

Accelerated plan

12

12

11

13

13

13

14

88

Difference

+5

+4

+4

+5

+5

+3

+3

+29

Source: United States Navy Accelerated Fleet Plan, undated, pp. 7-8, with cover memorandum from the Secretary of the Navy to the Secretary of Defense, February 9, 2017, posted at InsideDefense.com (subscription required) April 6, 2017.

As can be seen in Table 3, compared to the Navy's FY2017 budget submission, the Navy's notional accelerated fleet plan does not include additional aircraft carriers in the seven-year period FY2017-FY2023, but it accelerates the procurement of a carrier from FY2023 to FY2022. The Navy's white paper states that under the accelerated fleet plan, procurement of carriers would be accelerated to a rate of one ship every 3½ years (i.e., a combination of three- and four-year intervals) until a steady-state force of 12 carriers is achieved, and that the Navy would contract for carriers with two-ship multiyear contracts, starting with CVNs 80 and 81, the carriers that would be procured in FY2018 and FY2022.18

Time Needed to Achieve 355-Ship Fleet

Even with increased shipbuilding rates, achieving certain parts of the 355-ship force-level goal could take many years. For example, the 355-ship force-level goal includes a goal of 12 aircraft carriers. Increasing aircraft carrier procurement from the current rate of one ship every five years to one ship every three years would achieve a 12-carrier force on a sustained basis by about 2030. As another example, the 355-ship force level includes a goal of 66 attack submarines. Increasing attack submarine procurement to a rate of three attack submarines (or two attack submarines and one ballistic missile submarine) per year could achieve a 65-boat SSN force by the late 2030s. CBO estimates that the earliest the Navy could achieve all elements of the 355-ship fleet would be 2035.19 Extending the service lives of existing ships and/or reactivating retired ships could accelerate the attainment of certain parts of the 355-ship force structure.

Cost to Achieve and Maintain 355-Ship Fleet

Shipbuilding Costs

Procuring the additional ships needed to achieve and maintain the Navy's 355-ship fleet would require several billion dollars per year in additional shipbuilding funds. As shown in Table 1:

The Navy's February 2017 white paper on its notional accelerated fleet plan states that, compared to the Navy's FY2017 budget submission (whose five-year budget period covers the years FY2017-FY2021), the 23 additional ships shown in the first five years (FY2017-FY2021) of the seven-year period presented in Table 2 would require about $32.2 billion in then-year dollars in additional funding, or an average of about $6.4 billion per year in then-year dollars.21

Aircraft Procurement Costs

CBO estimates that procuring the additional ship-based aircraft associated with the Navy's 355-ship force-level goal—including an additional carrier air wing for an aircraft carrier, plus additional aircraft (mostly helicopters) for surface combatants and amphibious ships—would require about $15 billion in additional funding for aircraft procurement.22

The Navy's February 2017 white paper on its notional accelerated fleet plan states that, compared to the Navy's FY2017 budget submission (whose five-year budget period covers the years FY2017-FY2021), the additional 268 additional aircraft shown in the first five years (FY2017-FY2021) of the seven-year period presented in Table 2 would require about $29.6 billion in then-year dollars in additional funding, or an average of about $5.9 billion per year in then-year dollars.23

Shipbuilding and Aircraft Procurement Costs

A March 22, 2017, press report stated:

The Navy needs potentially as much as $150 billion over current budget plans to "jump-start" shipbuilding and get on a trajectory for a 355-ship fleet, the vice chief of naval operations said on Wednesday.

The money would add about 30 ships to the fleet beyond current plans, Adm. Bill Moran said.

The exact size of the future fleet doesn't matter right now, but rather the Navy just needs to start boosting its investment in shipbuilding quickly—which means buying many more Virginia-class attack submarines, Arleigh Burke-class destroyers and Ford-class aircraft carriers in the next few years, he said.

"I'm not here to argue that 355 or 350 is the right number. I'm here to argue that we need to get on that trajectory as fast as we can. And as time goes on you start to figure out whether that number is still valid—10 years from now, 20 years from now 355 may not be the number," Moran said today at the annual McAleese/Credit Suisse "Defense Programs" event.

"Our number, give or take, to get to 355, or just to get started in the first seven years, is $150 billion. That's a lot of money."

Moran told USNI News following his remarks that dollar figure wasn't exact but was based on the Navy's best guess for how much it would cost to immediately begin a fleet buildup. A Navy official told USNI News later that one internal Navy estimate put the cost at about $80 billion over the seven years....

"When you look at the number that started our 355 trajectory, to jump-start it – in order to jump-start it we think we need to build an additional 29 or 30 ships in the first seven years," he said.

"When you do all that math, it's a lot of money that we don't have. But we were asked to deliver on that, so we've passed along what we think it would take. And obviously, any number you give in this environment is going to be sticker shock. So that's why I say don't take me literally, all it is is a math equation right now."...

"We definitely wanted to go after SSNs, DDGs and carriers, to get carriers from a five-year center to a four-year center and even looked at a three-year option. So the numbers I will give to you are reflective of those three priorities, because those are the big impacters in any competition at sea," he told USNI News.

"Amphibs come later, but I'm talking about initial, what are we building that we can stamp out that are good. We know how to build Virginia-class, we know how to build DDGs."...

Moran said during his presentation that the Navy is currently on track to hit 310 ships – if the Fiscal Year 2017 spending bill is passed by Congress this spring after an extended continuing resolution, the Navy would finish buying the last ships that will eventually push it to 310. Without this quick ramp-up of shipbuilding, though, the Navy won't just fail to reach 355 ships but will actually slip back below 300 ships, he said. Dozens of ships built during the Reagan-era buildup are headed for decommissioning in the 2020s and the Navy needs to act quickly to either replace them at pace and stay around 310, or ramp up even faster to grow the fleet.

The vice chief told reporters that the plan for a 355-trajectory includes building more destroyers, building carriers faster, and maintaining two SSNs a year even as the new Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine begins production. A Columbia-class SSBN is the equivalent of about two SSNs, meaning the submarine industrial base would see about double the workload in any given year under this plan.24

CRS analysis of the Navy's February 2017 white paper suggests that the figure of $150 billion mentioned above is a hybrid cost figure that includes the following amounts shown in the white paper:

The sum total of the above four figures—a hybrid sum that mixes together both additional shipbuilding and aircraft procurement costs for FY2017-FY2021 and total shipbuilding and aircraft procurement costs for FY2022-FY2023—is $152.3 billion.

Shipbuilding Plus Operation and Support (O&S) costs

As shown in Table 1, the above additional shipbuilding and aircraft procurement funds are only a fraction of the total costs that would be needed to achieve and maintain the Navy's 355-ship fleet instead of the Navy's previously envisaged 308-ship fleet. CBO estimates that, adding together both shipbuilding costs and ship operation and support (O&S) costs, the Navy's 355-ship fleet would cost an average of about $11 billion to $23 billion more per year in constant FY2017 dollars than the Navy's previously envisaged 308-ship fleet. This figure does not include additional costs for manned aircraft, unmanned systems, and weapons.25

CRS estimates that a total of roughly 15,000 additional sailors and aviation personnel might be needed for the 47 additional ships.26 The Navy testified in May 2017 that the Navy would need a total of 20,000 to 40,000 more sailors at sea and ashore to operate a fleet of about 350 ships, depending on the composition of that 350-ship fleet, than the Navy currently has at sea and ashore for operating today's fleet of about 275 ships.27

Industrial Base Ability for Taking on Additional Shipbuilding Work

Navy and industry officials have stated that, in general, the shipbuilding industrial base has the ability to take on the additional shipbuilding work needed to achieve and maintain a 355-ship fleet, and that building toward the 355-ship goal sooner rather than later would be facilitated by ramping up production of existing ship designs rather than developing and then starting production of new designs.

Ramping up to higher rates of shipbuilding, Navy and industry officials have stated, would require additional tooling and equipment at some shipyards and some supplier firms. Additional production and supervisory workers would need to be hired and trained at shipyards and supplier firms. Depending on their specialties, newly hired workers could be initially less productive per unit of time worked than more experienced workers. Given the time needed to increase tooling and hire and train new workers, some amount of time would be needed to ramp up to higher shipbuilding rates—production could not jump to higher rates overnight.28 Some parts of the shipbuilding industrial base could face more challenges than others in ramping up to the higher production rates required to build the various parts of the 355-ship fleet. As stated in the April 2017 CBO report,

all seven shipyards would need to increase their workforces and several would need to make improvements to their infrastructure in order to build ships at a faster rate. However, certain sectors face greater obstacles in constructing ships at faster rates than others: Building more submarines to meet the goals of the 2016 force structure assessment would pose the greatest challenge to the shipbuilding industry. Increasing the number of aircraft carriers and surface combatants would pose a small to moderate challenge to builders of those vessels. Finally, building more amphibious ships and combat logistics and support ships would be the least problematic for the shipyards. The workforces across those yards would need to increase by about 40 percent over the next 5 to 10 years. Managing the growth and training of those new workforces while maintaining the current standard of quality and efficiency would represent the most significant industrywide challenge. In addition, industry and Navy sources indicate that as much as $4 billion would need to be invested in the physical infrastructure of the shipyards to achieve the higher production rates required under the [notional] 15-year and 20-year [buildup scenarios examined by CBO]. Less investment would be needed for the [notional] 25-year or 30-year [buildup scenarios examined by CBO].29

For additional background information on the ability of the industrial base to take on the additional shipbuilding work associated with achieving and maintaining the navy's 355-ship force-level goal, see Appendix H.

Employment Impact of Additional Shipbuilding Work

Depending on the number of additional ships per year that might be added to the Navy's shipbuilding effort, building the additional ships that would be needed to achieve and maintain the 355-ship fleet could create thousands of additional manufacturing and other jobs at shipyards, associated supplier firms, and elsewhere in the U.S. economy.

Consistent with U.S. law, the seven shipyards that build most of the Navy's major ships are all located in the United States.30 As of 2016, these seven yards reportedly employed a total of more than 66,000 people.31 Production workers account for a sizeable fraction of that figure. Some of the production workers are assigned to projects other than building Navy ships.32 (The remaining employees at the yards include designers and engineers, management and supervisory staff, and administrative and support staff.) Navy shipbuilding additionally supports thousands of manufacturing and other jobs at hundreds of supplier firms located throughout the United States. (Some states have more of these firms, while others have fewer of them.)

Shipbuilding can also have broader effects on the U.S. economy. A 2015 Maritime Administration (MARAD) report states, "Considering the indirect and induced impacts, each direct job in the shipbuilding and repairing industry is associated with another 2.6 jobs in other parts of the US economy; each dollar of direct labor income and GDP in the shipbuilding and repairing industry is associated with another $1.74 in labor income and $2.49 in GDP, respectively, in other parts of the US economy."33

A March 2017 press report states, "Based on a 2015 economic impact study, the Shipbuilders Council of America [a trade association for U.S. shipbuilders and associated supplier firms] believes that a 355-ship Navy could add more than 50,000 jobs nationwide."34 The 2015 economic impact study referred to in that quote might be the 2015 MARAD study discussed in the previous paragraph. An estimate of more than 50,000 additional jobs nationwide might be viewed as a higher-end estimate; other estimates might be lower. A June 14, 2017, press report states: "The shipbuilding industry will need to add between 18,000 and 25,000 jobs to build to a 350-ship Navy, according to Matthew Paxton, president of the Shipbuilders Council of America, a trade association representing the shipbuilding industrial base. Including indirect jobs like suppliers, the ramp-up may require a boost of 50,000 workers."35

Extending Service Lives of Existing Ships and Reactivating Retired Ships

As one possible option for increasing the size of the Navy beyond or more quickly than what could be accomplished solely through increased rates of construction of new ships, Navy officials state that they are exploring options for increasing the service lives of certain existing surface ships (particularly DDG-51 class destroyers) and attack submarines (SSNs). As a second possible option for increasing the size of the Navy—particularly in the nearer term, before increased rates of construction of new ships could produce significant results—Navy officials state that they are also exploring options for reactivating recently retired conventional surface ships, particularly Oliver Hazard Perry (FFG-7) class frigates. The technical feasibility and potential cost effectiveness of these options is currently not clear.

A June 19, 2017, press report states:

The chief of naval operations said this week the service may take the remaining Oliver Hazard Perry-class guided missile frigates out of retirement to increase the Navy's fleet size.

Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson said June 13 at the Naval War College the service needs to conduct a cost-benefit analysis of the proposal to determine the price to modernize the frigates.

The last Perry-class frigate in the Navy's inventory retired in 2015 after 30 years of service. Other ships in the class have been transferred to Egypt, Pakistan, Taiwan and Turkey.

The service is in the "very initial stages of looking at the option," according to Navy spokeswoman Lt. Kara Yingling.36

June 16, 2017, press report states:

While all options are on the table in the Navy's push to field a 355-ship fleet, when it comes to reactivating ships in the inactive fleet, the service is realistically only looking at seven decommissioned Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigates (FFG-7), Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson told USNI News on Thursday.

Since the December reveal of the Navy's new fleet size goal, calls have come from some analysts to reactivate three older Ticonderoga-class cruisers (CG-47) that have been sidelined for more than a dozen years or the conventionally powered Kitty Hawk (CV-63) aircraft carrier....

The Navy has about 50 warships in the inactive fleet, but so far only the Perrys are seriously being studied for reactivation, Richardson said following a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee. He first mentioned the possibility of reactivating Perrys earlier this week during a presentation at the Naval War College.

"Bringing those back—we're examining it and we don't want to overlook any options, but really on the face of it it's going to be very complicated," he said.

"As a ship class comes to the end of its life, it's not like we're pouring a lot of money into keeping that class modernized. Although the last of the frigates were decommissioned a couple of years ago, we've really stopped modernizing far before that because we just wanted to bring it to a graceful end and there were better places to spend our money at the time."

Rather, the Navy is looking at what it could do now to extend the life of the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers (DDG-51) past an expected service life of 35 years, in a more realistic bid to keep up the fleet size.

The DDG life extension plan would prompt a reexamination of key decisions the Navy has made over the last few years on the mid-life modernization of the Burke class.

The Navy elected not to modernize the Aegis Combat Systems of some of the earlier Burkes as a cost-savings measure and instead just executed hull, mechanical and engineering upgrades.

The Baseline 9 combat system upgrade replaces the 1980s-era computer infrastructure of the combat system with faster and more easily upgraded commercial servers, an additional signal processor that allows the ship to fight both traditional air and ballistic missile threats, and a networking capability that allows data to flow from the upgraded destroyer to other ships and aircraft.

How extensively the Navy will take a second look at the DDG upgrade schedule or combat system modernization plan is also being evaluated, Richardson said.

"It's the same cost-benefit tradeoff [as the frigates]. You take a look at how much more life might we get, and if it's a significant period of time then it might be worth investing in the combat system to modernize and we'll take it from there," he said.

"Everything has to be on the table, and I want to understand the entire decision space and that entire landscape."37

A June 15, 2017, press report states:

The U.S. Navy is studying the ideas of pulling up to eight mothballed Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigates back to service, extending the Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers, and increased networking to achieve a larger fleet faster than expected, the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) said Tuesday [June 13].

Speaking at the Naval War College, Adm. John Richardson said the service is looking at all of the options to both increase the number of platforms in the fleet as well as increasing their capabilities as the Defense Department plans a 355 ship fleet. In response to a question, Richardson said the Navy is "taking a hard look at the Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigates. There's seven or eight of those that I think we could take a look at. But those are some old ships and the technology on those ships is old."...

Richardson also talked about life extension of current ships, focusing on the Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers (DDGs). "If we plan now, for instance, to extend the life Arleigh Burke DDGs beyond the current projections, the initial returns are we could buy 10 to 15 years to the left in terms of reaching that 350 ship goal.

Keeping ships out of mothballs for longer will be "money in the bank if we do that," he added.

Richardson and a Navy spokesperson elaborated later on Twitter that bringing back the Perrys is not a foregone conclusion and efforts to extend service life are more mature. "We need to be deliberate as we work or way through these decisions," Richardson said.38

A June 13, 2017, press report states:

Studies are underway to "take a hard look" at putting eight mothballed Oliver Hazard Perry frigates back into service as well as extending the life of existing Arleigh Burke guided-missile destroyers to help the Navy reach its goal of a 355-ship fleet, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson said on Tuesday [June 13].

Speaking before an audience at the U.S. Naval War College, Richardson said service leaders were looking at "every trick" to put more platforms into the fleet including bringing back some Perrys into service.

"We're taking a hard look at the Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigates. There's seven or eight of those that we could take a look at but those are some old ships and everything on these ships is old… a lot has changed since we last modernized those," Richardson said in a response to an audience question on how the Navy's inactive reserve fleet could be used to grow the fleet.

"It'll be a cost benefit analysis in terms of how we do that. The other part is how we do life extension and how do we plan to keep them out of mothballs longer. That's going to be money in the bank if we do that."

He said early looks at extending the planned service life of the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers could help the service reach a 355 total ten to 15 years faster.

"If we plan now, for instance, to extend the life Arleigh Burke DDGs beyond the current projections, the initial returns are we could buy ten to 15 years to the left in terms of reaching that 350 ship goal," he said.

In follow-up tweets to his remarks at the Current Strategy Forum, Richardson and a Navy spokesperson stressed the service was still in the early stages of formulating how it would reach the 355 ship goal and that the progress on the life extension program was more mature than reactivating the frigates.39

Navy Desire to Improve Ship Readiness Before Expanding Fleet

Navy officials have indicated that, prior to embarking on a fleet expansion, they would first like to see additional funding provided for overhaul and repair work to improve the readiness of existing Navy ships, particularly conventionally powered surface ships, and for mitigating other shortfalls in Navy readiness.40

A December 12, 2016, press report states:

Despite President-elect Donald Trump's goal of building toward a 350-ship Navy, the service's immediate priorities under an increased budget would be catching up on ship and aircraft maintenance, as well as buying more strike fighters and munitions, according to a top officer.

Eying the potential for increased military spending under Trump's administration, the Navy is developing a list of priorities the service has if more funding becomes available, according to Vice Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Bill Moran.

"Maintenance and modernization for ships, submarines and aircraft are at the top of our list," Moran told reporters....41

A January 11, 2017, press report similarly states:

Speaking at the Surface Navy Association's annual symposium near Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, Moran said Navy leaders have already told President-elect Donald Trump's transition team that they want any additional funding that comes available within this fiscal year to go to maintenance first.

"The transition team came around to all of us in the building and asked us what we could do with more money right now," Moran said. "The answer was not, 'Buy more ships.' The answer was, 'Make sure that the 274 that we had were maintained and modernized to provide 274 ships' worth of combat time.' Then, we'll start buying more ships."42

Another January 11, 2017, press report similarly states:

The message Navy leaders are sending to President-elect Donald Trump's team is: We need money to keep the current 274 ships in the fleet maintained and modernized first and then give us the money to buy more ships....

In talking with the press and in his address, he said, "It is really hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel" if maintenance is continuously deferred, causing ships to be in the yards far longer in the yards than expected with costs rising commensurately.

"Deferred maintenance is insidiously taking its toll."

Not only does this add greater risk and a growing gap between the combatant commanders' requirements and what the service can deliver, "you can't buy back that experience" and proficiency sailors lose when they can't use their skills at sea.

"At some point, we have to dig ourselves out of the hole," Moran said in his address.43

A January 24, 2017, press report states:

The Navy wants $2 billion in additional funding this year for much-needed ship maintenance and fleet operations, and would also buy two dozen Super Hornets and an additional San Antonio-class amphibious warship if money were made available, according to an early January draft wish list obtained by USNI News.

While the list is not as official as the February 2016 Unfunded Priorities List from which it stems, it is meant to be a conversation-starter with Congress and the new Trump Administration on the Navy's needs for today and in the near term, a senior service official told USNI News on Tuesday. The main message of that conversation is that current readiness must be addressed first, with acquisitions wishes being addressed afterwards with whatever funding may remain, a senior Navy official told USNI News.

"Our priorities are unambiguously focused on readiness—those things required to get planes in the air, ships and subs at sea, sailors trained and ready," the official said....

The first section of the updated list addresses afloat readiness, which both the Navy and the new Trump Administration have said would be a primary focus of any FY 2017 supplemental....

More than $500 million for air operations and flying hours, as well as $339 million for ship operations and $647 for ship depot maintenance, sit atop the wish list. These items were included in the original UPL but have been prioritized first in this most recent version....

Earlier this month Vice Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Bill Moran said that, while President Donald Trump had expressed interest in growing the Navy fleet, readiness needed to be a top priority before growing a larger fleet. "Deferred maintenance is insidiously taking its toll," he said, and "at some point, we have to dig ourselves out of the hole" that has been created from years of too little funding for operations and maintenance.44

Another January 24, 2017, press report similarly states:

With no fiscal 2017 defense budget in sight and little chance of an agreement before April—if then—the military services are submitting second and possibly third rounds of unfunded requirements lists to Congress. The lists include items left out of the original budget requests, ranked in order of priority should Congress find a way to fund them.

The latest list from the US Navy was sent to Congress Jan. 5, updating a similar list sent over at the end of February but rejiggered in light of the new 355-ship Force Structure Assessment, changes in requirements and the lateness of the fiscal year, which limit what can be done in the current budget. The new list also reflects what Navy leaders have been saying in recent weeks they need most—maintenance funding. While the late February list lead off with acquisition needs, the new top priorities include $2 billion in afloat readiness funding....

The maintenance needs reflect Navy decisions in recent years to put off upkeep and protect long-term procurement accounts from successive cuts mandated by the Budget Control Act – also known as sequestration. But recent statements from top Navy brass underscore the need to restore maintenance money.

"Our priorities are unambiguously focused on readiness -- those things required to get planes in the air, ships and subs at sea, sailors trained and ready," the Navy official declared. "No new starts."45

Navy's Five-Year and 30-Year Shipbuilding Plans

FY2018-FY2022 Five-Year Shipbuilding Plan

Table 4 shows the Navy's FY2018-FY2022 five-year shipbuilding plan, as assembled from data in the Navy's FY2018 budget-justification documentation. (For reference purposes, the table also shows figures for FY2017.) The figures shown for FY2018 reflect the Navy's announcement on May 24, 2017, that it was amending its budget submission to include two LCSs for FY2018, rather than the one LCS shown in the Navy's original budget submission, which was delivered on May 23, 2017.

As shown in Table 4, the Navy's proposed FY2018 budget, as amended on May 24, 2017, requests the procurement of nine new ships, including one Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) class aircraft carrier, two Virginia-class attack submarines, two DDG-51 class destroyers, two Littoral Combat Ships (LCSs), one TAO-205 class oiler, and one towing, salvage, and rescue ship. With one exception, these are the same ships that the Navy's FY2017 budget submission projected would be requested for FY2018. The exception is that the Navy's FY2017 budget submission projected an FY2018 request for one LCS rather than two (and consequently a total FY2018 request for eight new ships rather than nine).

DOD officials state that figures for FY2019-FY2022 in DOD's FY2018 budget submission are subject to change, pending the outcome of DOD's current defense strategy review, and consequently should be treated as something more akin to placeholder figures. Changes to FY2019-FY2022 figures resulting from the defense strategy review, they have stated, will be reflected in DOD's FY2019 budget submission.

Table 4. Navy FY2018-FY2022 Five-Year Shipbuilding Plan

(Battle force ships—i.e., ships that count against 308-ship goal; FY2017 figures shown for reference)

Ship type

FY17

FY18 (req.)

Data for FY19-FY22 subject to change pending outcome of defense strategy review

 

 

 

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY18-FY22 Total

Columbia (SSBN-826) class ballistic missile submarine

 

 

 

 

1

 

1

Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) class aircraft carrier

 

1

 

 

 

 

1

Virginia (SSN-774) class attack submarine

2

2

2

2

2

2

10

Arleigh Burke (DDG-51) class destroyer

2

2

2

2

2

2

10

Littoral Combat Ship (LCS)/Frigate

3

2

1

1

1

2

7

LHA(R) amphibious assault ship

1

 

 

 

 

 

0

San Antonio (LPD-17) class amphibious ship

1

 

 

 

 

 

0

LX(R) amphibious ship

 

 

 

1

 

1

2

John Lewis (TAO-205) class oiler

 

1

1

1

1

1

5

Towing, salvage, and rescue ship (TATS)

 

1

1

1

1

1

5

TAGOS(X) ocean surveillance ship

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

Expeditionary Support Base (ESB) ship

 

 

 

 

 

 

0

TOTAL

9

9

7

8

8

10

42

Source: Table prepared by CRS based on FY2018 Navy budget submission.

FY2017-FY2046 30-Year Shipbuilding Plan

Table 5 shows the Navy's FY2017-FY2046 30-year shipbuilding plan, which was intended to support the Navy's previous 308-ship force-level objective.46 In devising a 30-year shipbuilding plan to move the Navy toward its ship force-structure goal, key assumptions and planning factors include but are not limited to ship construction times and service lives, estimated ship procurement costs, projected shipbuilding funding levels, and industrial-base considerations.

Table 5. Navy FY2017-FY2046 30-Year Shipbuilding Plan

FY

CVN

LSC

SSC

SSN

SSBN

AWS

CLF

Supt

Total

17

 

2

2

2

 

1

 

 

7

18

1

2

1

2

 

 

1

1

8

19

 

2

1

2

 

 

1

1

7

20

 

2

1

2

 

1

1

1

8

21

 

2

2

1

1

 

1

1

8

22

 

2

2

2

 

1

1

2

10

23

1

2

2

2

 

1

1

2

11

24

 

2

2

1

1

2

1

2

11

25

 

2

1

2

 

1

1

2

9

26

 

2

 

1

1

1

1

1

7

27

 

2

 

1

1

1

1

1

7

28

1

2

 

1

1

2

1

 

8

29

 

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

8

30

 

2

 

1

1

1

1

2

8

31

 

2

1

1

1

1

1

2

9

32

 

2

1

1

1

1

1

2

9

33

1

2

1

1

1

 

1

2

9

34

 

2

2

1

1

 

 

1

7

35

 

2

2

1

1

 

 

 

6

36

 

2

2

2

 

1

 

 

7

37

 

2

3

2

 

 

 

 

7

38

1

3

4

2

 

 

 

 

10

39

 

3

4

2

 

 

 

 

9

40

 

3

4

1

 

2

 

 

10

41

 

2

4

2

 

 

 

 

8

42

 

3

4

1

 

1

 

 

9

43

1

2

2

2

 

 

1

 

8

44

 

3

3

1

 

2

 

 

9

45

 

2

3

2

 

1

2

 

10

46

 

3

3

1

 

1

2

 

10

Total

6

66

58

44

12

23

21

24

254

Source: Table prepared by CRS based on Navy's FY2017-FY2046 30-year shipbuilding plan.

Key: FY = Fiscal Year; CVN = aircraft carriers; LSC = surface combatants (i.e., cruisers and destroyers); SSC = small surface combatants (i.e., Littoral Combat Ships [LCSs]); SSN = attack submarines; SSGN = cruise missile submarines; SSBN = ballistic missile submarines; AWS = amphibious warfare ships; CLF = combat logistics force (i.e., resupply) ships; Supt = support ships.

Projected Force Levels Under FY2017 30-Year Shipbuilding Plan

Table 6 shows a projection of ship force levels for FY2017-FY2046 that would result from implementing the FY2017-FY2046 30-year shipbuilding plan shown in Table 5. As noted in the previous section, the FY2017-FY2046 30-year shipbuilding plan was intended to support the Navy's previous 308-ship force-level goal.

Table 6. Projected Force Levels Resulting from FY2017-FY2046 30-Year Shipbuilding Plan

 

CVN

LSC

SSC

SSN

SSGN

SSBN

AWS

CLF

Supt

Total

355-ship plan of 12/16

12

104

52

66

0

12

38

32

39

355

308-ship plan of 3/15

11

88

52

48

0

12

34

29

34

308

FY17

11

90

25

52

4

14

32

29

30

287

FY18

11

91

29

53

4

14

32

29

32

295

FY19

11

94

32

52

4

14

33

29

31

300

FY20

11

95

33

52

4

14

33

29

35

306

FY21

11

97

34

51

4

14

33

30

34

308

FY22

12

98

35

48

4

14

34

30

35

310

FY23

12

99

31

49

4

14

34

30

36

309

FY24

12

100

31

48

4

14

35

30

37

311

FY25

11

100

32

47

4

14

36

30

39

313

FY26

11

99

35

45

2

14

36

30

37

309

FY27

11

99

37

44

1

13

36

30

38

309

FY28

11

100

39

42

 

13

37

30

38

310

FY29

11

98

40

41

 

12

37

30

38

307

FY30

11

95

40

42

 

11

37

30

38

304

FY31

11

91

40

43

 

11

37

30

36

299

FY32

11

89

40

43

 

10

37

30

37

297

FY33

11

88

40

44

 

10

38

30

37

298

FY34

11

86

40

45

 

10

37

30

37

296

FY35

11

86

40

46

 

10

35

30

38

296

FY36

11

86

41

47

 

10

35

29

38

297

FY37

11

87

41

48

 

10

35

29

37

298

FY38

11

88

42

47

 

10

34

29

35

296

FY39

11

89

44

47

 

10

34

29

33

297

FY40

10

88

45

47

 

10

33

29

32

294

FY41

10

87

43

47

 

11

34

29

32

293

FY42

10

84

43

49

 

12

33

29

32

292

FY43

10

83

43

49

 

12

32

29

32

290

FY44

10

82

43

50

 

12

32

29

32

290

FY45

10

82

45

50

 

12

33

29

32

293

FY46

10

80

45

51

 

12

33

29

32

292

Source: Table prepared by CRS based on Navy's FY2017-FY2046 30-year shipbuilding plan.

Note: Figures for support ships include five JHSVs transferred from the Army to the Navy and operated by the Navy primarily for the performance of Army missions.

Key: FY = Fiscal Year; CVN = aircraft carriers; LSC = surface combatants (i.e., cruisers and destroyers); SSC = small surface combatants (i.e., frigates, Littoral Combat Ships [LCSs], and mine warfare ships); SSN = attack submarines; SSGN = cruise missile submarines; SSBN = ballistic missile submarines; AWS = amphibious warfare ships; CLF = combat logistics force (i.e., resupply) ships; Supt = support ships.

Issues for Congress for FY2018

Navy's New 355-Ship Force-Level Goal

Potential Oversight Questions

The Navy's new 355-ship force-level goal poses a number of potential oversight issues for Congress, including but not limited to the following:

Appropriateness of 355-Ship Goal: Some Elements of the Discussion

Below are brief discussions of some elements of the discussion of the appropriateness of the Navy's new 355-ship force-level goal.

Changing Strategic Circumstances

Changes in strategic and budgetary circumstances in recent years have led to a broad debate over the future size and structure of the military, including the Navy. Regarding changing strategic circumstances, world events have led some observers, starting in late 2013, to conclude that the international security environment has undergone a shift from the familiar post-Cold War era of the past 20-25 years, also sometimes known as the unipolar moment (with the United States as the unipolar power), to a new and different strategic situation that features, among other things, renewed great power competition and challenges to elements of the U.S.-led international order that has operated since World War II.48 For further discussion of changes in strategic circumstances, see Appendix A. For additional discussion of the relationship between U.S. strategy and the size and structure of U.S. naval forces, see Appendix K.

Navy Planning Factors

The Navy's new 355-ship goal reflects a number of judgments and planning factors (some of which the Navy receives from the Office of the Secretary of Defense), including but not limited to the following:

Regarding regional combatant commander (CCDR) requests for forward-deployed Navy forces, as mentioned earlier, Navy officials testified in March 2014 that a Navy of 450 ships would be required to fully meet CCDR requests for forward-deployed Navy forces.49 The difference between a fleet of 450 ships and the current goal for a fleet of 355 ships can be viewed as one measure of operational risk associated with the goal of a fleet of 355 ships. A goal for a fleet of 450 ships might be viewed as a fiscally unconstrained goal.

Fleet Architecture Studies and Proposed Navy Force Structures

Some observers, viewing advancements in technologies for networked operations and unmanned vehicles, have raised the issue of whether the U.S. Navy's current fleet architecture—meaning its current mix of ship types, and how those ships are combined to create Navy formations—should be altered in coming years to make greater use of such technologies:

Other observers, viewing China's maritime anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) forces, have raised the question of whether the U.S. Navy should respond by shifting over time to a more highly distributed fleet architecture featuring a reduced reliance on aircraft carriers and other large ships and an increased reliance on smaller ships. The question of whether the U.S. Navy concentrates too much of its combat capability in a relatively small number of high-value units, and whether it should shift over time to a more highly distributed fleet architecture, has been debated at various times over the years, in various contexts. The issue was examined, for example, in a report by DOD's Office of Force Transformation (OFT) that was submitted to Congress in 2005.51

Supporters of shifting to a more highly distributed fleet architecture argue that the Navy's current architecture, including its force of large aircraft carriers, in effect puts too many of the Navy's combat-capability eggs into a relatively small number of baskets on which an adversary can concentrate its surveillance and targeting systems and its anti-ship weapons. They argue that although a large Navy aircraft carrier can absorb hits from multiple conventional weapons without sinking, a smaller number of enemy weapons might cause damage sufficient to stop the carrier's aviation operations, thus eliminating the ship's primary combat capability and providing the attacker with what is known as a "mission kill." A more highly distributed fleet architecture, they argue, would make it more difficult for China to target the Navy and reduce the possibility of the Navy experiencing a significant reduction in combat capability due to the loss in battle of a relatively small number of high-value units.

Opponents of shifting to a more highly distributed fleet architecture argue that large carriers and other large ships are not only more capable, but proportionately more capable, than smaller ships, that larger ships are capable of fielding highly capable systems for defending themselves, and that they are much better able than smaller ships to withstand the effects of enemy weapons, due to their larger size, extensive armoring and interior compartmentalization, and extensive damage-control systems. A more highly distributed fleet architecture, they argue, would be less capable or more expensive than today's fleet architecture. Opponents of shifting to a more highly distributed fleet architecture could also argue that the Navy has already taken important steps toward fielding a more distributed fleet architecture through its plan to acquire 40 LCSs and 11 EPFs, and through the surface fleet's recently announced concept of distributed lethality, under which offensive weapons are to be distributed more widely across all types of Navy surface ships and new operational concepts for Navy surface ship formations are to be implemented.52

Section 1067 of the FY2016 National Defense Authorization Act (S. 1356/P.L. 114-92 of November 25, 2015) required the Secretary of Defense to provide for three independent studies on alternative fleet platform architectures for the Navy in the 2030 time frame, and to submit the results of each study to the congressional defense committees. The three studies were completed in 2016 and reviewed at a March 8, 2017, hearing before the Seapower and Projection Forces subcommittee of the House Armed Services Committee. The results of the three studies are summarized in Appendix F. The Navy states that the FSA that led to the 355-ship plan

assumes that the future plans for our Navy, in ship types and numbers of ships, continues to replace the ships we have today with ships of similar capability and in similar numbers as we transition to the future Navy—it does not address potential options that may come out of the ongoing review of the potential Future Fleet Architecture studies that were directed by Congress [in the FY2016 NDAA] and completed in October 2016. As we evaluate the options presented in these studies and move to include them in our plans for tomorrow's Navy, this FSA will need to be updated to reflect those changes that are determined to be most beneficial to meeting the Navy's missions of the future.53

Other study groups over the years have made their own proposals for Navy ship force structure that reflect their own perspectives on various issues that can affect Navy force structure. Appendix G presents some of these proposals. The proposals shown in Appendix G were all published prior to late 2013, when observers began to conclude that the international security environment has undergone a shift from the familiar post-Cold War era of the past 20-25 years to a new and different strategic situation that features, among other things, renewed great power competition and challenges to elements of the U.S.-led international order that has operated since World War II.

Section 128(d) of the FY2015 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) (S. 1356/P.L. 114-92 of November 25, 2015) requires the Secretary of the Navy to submit a report on potential requirements, capabilities, and alternatives for the future development of aircraft carriers that would replace or supplement the new Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) class aircraft carrier. Depending on its findings or recommendations, it is possible that this report could lead to a change in aircraft carrier design that might in turn lead to a change in fleet architecture.

For an excerpt from a 2014 journal article that provides further discussion of the issue of future Navy fleet architecture, see Appendix I.

Budgetary Context: Potential Impact on Size and Capability of Navy of Limiting DOD Spending to BCA Caps Through FY2021

Navy officials stated in 2015 that limiting DOD spending through FY2021 to levels at or near the caps established in the Budget Control Act of 2011 (BCA) as amended would lead to a smaller and less capable Navy that would not be capable of fully executing all the missions assigned to it under the defense strategic guidance document of 2012. For additional details, see Appendix J.

FY2018 Shipbuilding Funding Requests

One issue for Congress relating to the Navy's FY2018 shipbuilding budget request is whether to approve, reject, or modify the Navy's FY2018 funding requests for its various shipbuilding programs. In assessing this question, Congress may consider various factors. One is whether the Navy has accurately priced the work to be funded in FY2018. Another is whether to begin building toward the Navy's 355-ship force-level goal in FY2018, or instead wait until FY2019 or a subsequent fiscal year to begin such a buildup.

DOD officials have stated that DOD's proposed FY2018 budget focuses on addressing readiness issues, and that actions to begin building up the size of the military were deferred to FY2019, pending the outcome of DOD's current defense strategy review. If policymakers were to decide to begin building toward the Navy's 355-ship force-level goal in FY2018, there would be several potential options for adding to the Navy's proposed FY2018 shipbuilding budget, including but not limited to the following:

In a situation of constraints on FY2018 defense spending, pursuing one or more of the options above could require making offsetting reductions in FY2018 funding for DOD programs, potentially reducing DOD capabilities in other areas.

Affordability of 30-Year Shipbuilding Plan

Another issue for Congress concerns the prospective affordability of the Navy's 30-year shipbuilding plan. The affordability of the Navy's 30-year shipbuilding plan has been an annual oversight issue in recent years. In assessing the prospective affordability of the 30-year plan, key factors that Congress may consider include estimated ship procurement costs and future shipbuilding funding levels. Each of these is discussed below.

Estimated Ship Procurement Costs

If one or more Navy ship designs turn out to be more expensive to build than the Navy estimates, then the projected funding levels shown in the 30-year shipbuilding plan will not be sufficient to procure all the ships shown in the plan. Ship designs that can be viewed as posing a risk of being more expensive to build than the Navy estimates include Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) class aircraft carriers, Columbia-class (Ohio-replacement) ballistic missile submarines (SSBNXs), the Flight III version of the DDG-51 destroyer, the John Lewis (TAO-205) class oiler, and the LX(R) amphibious ship.

As shown in Table 7, the Navy estimates that the FY2017 30-year shipbuilding plan, which was intended to support the Navy's previous 308-ship force-level goal, would cost an average of about $17.0 billion per year in constant FY2016 dollars to implement, including an average of about $15.0 billion per year during the first 10 years of the plan, an average of about $18.6 billion per year during the middle 10 years of the plan, and an average of about $17.1 billion per year during the final 10 years of the plan.

As also shown in Table 7, CBO estimates that the plan would require 11.1% more funding to implement than the Navy estimates, including 2% more than the Navy estimates during the first 10 years of the plan, 5.9% more than the Navy estimates during the middle 10 years of the plan, and 14.6% more than the Navy estimates during the final 10 years of the plan.54 Over the years, CBO's estimates of the cost to implement the Navy's 30-year shipbuilding plan have generally been higher than the Navy's estimates.

Some of the difference between CBO's estimates and the Navy's estimates is due to a difference between CBO and the Navy in how to treat inflation in Navy shipbuilding. This difference compounds over time, making it increasingly important as a factor in the difference between CBO's estimates and the Navy's estimates the further one goes into the 30-year period. In other words, other things held equal, this factor tends to push the CBO and Navy estimates further and further apart as one proceeds from the earlier years of the plan to the later years of the plan.

The shipbuilding program that contributes the most to the difference between the CBO and Navy estimates of the cost of the FY2017 30-year plan is a future large surface combatant (i.e., a cruiser- or destroyer-type ship) that appears in the final 17 years of the 30-year plan. As shown in the CBO report, this one program accounts for 26% of the total difference between CBO and the Navy on the estimated cost implement the FY2016 30-year shipbuilding plan.55 The next-largest contributor to the overall difference is the Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine program, which accounts for 18%, followed by a future class of small surface combatants (i.e., a frigate-type ship), which accounts for 16%.56 Together, these three programs account for 60% of the total difference between CBO and the Navy.

Table 7. Navy and CBO Estimates of Cost of 30-Year Shipbuilding Plan

Funding for new-construction ships, in billions of constant FY2016 or FY2015 dollars

 

First 10 years of the plan

Middle 10 years of the plan

Final 10 years of the plan

Entire 30 years of the plan

FY2017 (FY2017-FY2046) 30-Year Shipbuilding Plan (constant FY2016 dollars)

Navy estimate

15.0

18.6

17.1

17.0

CBO estimate

15.3

19.7

19.6

18.9

% difference between Navy and CBO estimates

2.0%

5.9%

14.6%

11.1%

FY2016 (FY2016-FY2045) 30-Year Shipbuilding Plan (constant FY2015 dollars)

Navy estimate

16.9

17.2

15.2

16.5

CBO estimate

18.2

19.2

17.8

18.4

% difference between Navy and CBO estimates

7.7%

11.6%

17.1%

11.5%

Source: For FY2017 30-year plan: Congressional Budget Office, An Analysis of the Navy's Fiscal Year 2017 Shipbuilding Plan, February 2017, Table 4 on p. 12. For FY2016 30-year plan: Congressional Budget Office, An Analysis of the Navy's Fiscal Year 2016 Shipbuilding Plan, Table 4 on p. 13.

Future Shipbuilding Funding Levels

In large part due to the statutory requirement for the Navy to annually submit a report on its 30-year shipbuilding plan, it has been known for years that fully implementing the 30-year shipbuilding plan would require shipbuilding budgets in coming years that are considerably greater than those of recent years, and that funding requirements for the Columbia-class (i.e., Ohio-replacement, or OR) ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) program will put particular pressure on the shipbuilding budget during the middle years of the 30-year plan. The Navy's report on the FY2016 30-year plan states:

Within the Navy's traditional Total Obligation Authority (TOA), and assuming that historic shipbuilding resources continue to be available, the OR SSBN would consume about half of the shipbuilding funding available in a given year – and would do so for a period of over a decade. The significant drain on available shipbuilding resources would manifest in reduced procurement quantities in the remaining capital ship programs. Therefore, additional resources for shipbuilding will likely be required during this period.

Since the CVN funding requirements are driven by the statutory requirement to maintain eleven CVNs, and accounting for one OR SSBN per year (starting in FY2026), there would only be about half of the resources normally available to procure the Navy's remaining capital ships. At these projected funding levels, Navy would be limited to on average, as few as two other capital ships (SSN, DDG, CG, LPD, LHA, etc.) per year throughout this decade. In assessing the Navy's ability to reach the higher annual shipbuilding funding levels described above, one perspective is to note that doing so would require the shipbuilding budget to be increased by 30% to 50% from levels in recent years. In a context of constraints on defense spending and competing demands for defense dollars, this perspective can make the goal of increasing the shipbuilding budget to these levels appear daunting....

The cost of the OR SSBN is significant relative to the resources available to DON in any given year. At the same time, the DON will have to address the block retirement of ships procured in large numbers during the 1980s, which are reaching the end of their service lives. The convergence of these events prevents DON from being able to shift resources within the shipbuilding account to accommodate the cost of the OR SSBN.

If DON funds the OR SSBN from within its own resources, OR SSBN construction will divert funding from construction of other ships in the battle force such as attack submarines, destroyers, aircraft carriers and amphibious warfare ships. The resulting battle force will not meet the requirements of the Force Structure Assessment (FSA), National Security Strategy, or the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR). Additionally, there will be significant impact to the shipbuilding industrial base.57

The Navy's report on the FY2017 30-year plan states:

In order to procure [the Ohio replacement boats] without impacting remaining procurement plans, the Navy will continue to need increases in [its budget] topline beyond the FYDP, not unlike those that occurred during construction of the Ohio class in the 1980's....

There are two significant challenges to resourcing the DoN shipbuilding program. First will be funding and delivering the OR SSBN and second addressing the number of ship and submarine retirements as they reach the end of their service lives. The DoN contents that the only way to effectively overcome these challenges while supporting the defense strategy is with increases in DoN top-line funding commensurate with the funding required to procure the OR SSBN and executing the phased maintenance plan for the CGs [cruisers].58

The amount of additional shipbuilding funding that would be needed in coming years to fully implement the Navy's 30-year shipbuilding plan, compared to recent levels of shipbuilding funding—an average of about $4.5 billion per year59—can be characterized in at least two ways. One is to note that this figure would equate to a roughly one-third increase in the shipbuilding budget above historical levels. Another is to note that this same amount of additional funding would equate to less than 1% of DOD's annual budget.

Legislative Activity for FY2018

CRS Reports Tracking Legislation on Specific Navy Shipbuilding Programs

Detailed coverage of legislative activity on certain Navy shipbuilding programs (including funding levels, legislative provisions, and report language) can be found in the following CRS reports:

Legislative activity on individual Navy shipbuilding programs that are not covered in detail in the above reports is covered below.

Summary of Congressional Action on FY2018 Funding Request

The Navy's proposed FY2018 budget, as amended on May 24, 2017, requests the procurement of nine new ships, including one Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) class aircraft carrier, two Virginia-class attack submarines, two DDG-51 class destroyers, two Littoral Combat Ships (LCSs), one TAO-205 class oiler, and one towing, salvage, and rescue ship. The Navy's proposed FY2018 shipbuilding budget also requests funding for ships that have been procured in prior fiscal years, and ships that are to be procured in future fiscal years, as well as funding for activities other than the building of new Navy ships.

Table 8 summarizes congressional action on the Navy's FY2018 funding request for Navy shipbuilding. The table shows the amounts requested and congressional changes to those requested amounts. A blank cell in a filled-in column showing congressional changes to requested amounts indicates no change from the requested amount.

The amount shown in the table as requested for the LCS program (line 011)—a total of $1,177.1 million—reflects the Navy's May 24, 2017, announced amendment to its proposed FY2018 budget. The Navy's original FY2018 budget, submitted on May 23, 2017, requested procurement of one LCS for $636.1 million. In amending their proposed budget on May 24, Navy officials stated that an additional $541 million would be needed to convert the originally proposed FY2018 LCS procurement from a one-ship buy into a two-ship buy. The requested figure for line 011 in the table (and the total at the bottom of the column) includes this additional $541 million. For simplicity, pending further announcements from the Navy, the table assumes that the Navy's proposed offset for this additional $541 million comes from outside the SCN account. A June 12, 2017, press report, however, states that the Navy has identified the CVN mid-life refueling overhaul (lines 006 and 007 in the table) as the potential source for at least some of the $541 million offset needed for the LCS program.60 Similarly, a June 19, 2017, press report states that the Navy has identified the CVN mid-life refueling overhaul as the potential source for about $325 million of the offset (with another $100 million of the offset to come from a program to install infrared search and track systems on Navy F/A-18E/F Super Hornet strike fighters, and the remainder of the offset to come from smaller programs).61 If the Navy subsequently confirms that the CVN mid-life refueling overhaul is the source for some or all of the offset, the requested funding figures in line 006 and/or 007 (and consequently the total shown at the bottom of the column) would need to be reduced by the announced amount of the offset. Pending such an announcement, the table below continues to show the originally requested amounts for lines 006 and 007.


Table 8. Summary of Congressional Action on FY2018 Funding Request

(Millions of dollars, rounded to nearest tenth; totals may not add due to rounding)

Line number

Program

Request

Congressional changes to requested amounts

 

 

 

Authorization

Appropriation

 

 

 

HASC

SASC

Conf.

HAC

SAC

Conf.

Shipbuilding and Conversion, Navy (SCN) appropriation account

001

Ohio replacement AP

842.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

002

CVN-78

4,441.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

003

CVN-78 AP

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

004

Virginia class

3,305.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

005

Virginia class AP

1,920.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

006

CVN refueling overhaul

1,604.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

007

CVN refueling overhaul AP

75.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

008

DDG-1000

224.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

009

DDG-51

3,499.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

010

DDG-51 AP

90.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

011

LCS

1,177.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

012

LX(R)

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

013

LPD-17

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

014

ESB (formerly AFSB)

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

015

LHA-8

1,710.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

016

LHA-8 AP

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

017

EPF (formerly JHSV)

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

018

TAO-205 (formerly TAO[X])

466.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

019

TAO-205 AP

75.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

020

TATS

76.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

021

Moored training ship

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

022

Moored training ship AP

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

023

LCU 1700 landing craft

31.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

024

Outfitting

548.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

025

Ship to Shore Connector

212.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

026

Service craft

24.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

027

LCAC SLEP

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

028

YP craft

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

029

Completion of prior-year shipbuilding programs

117.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL

 

20,444.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: Table prepared by CRS based on Navy FY2018 budget submission.

Notes: Millions of dollars, rounded to nearest tenth. A blank cell indicates no change to requested amount. Totals may not add due to rounding. AP is advance procurement funding; HASC is House Armed Services Committee; SASC is Senate Armed Services Committee; HAC is House Appropriations Committee; SAC is Senate Appropriations Committee; Conf. is conference report.

Appendix A. Strategic and Budgetary Context

This appendix presents some brief comments on elements of the strategic and budgetary context in which U.S. Navy force structure and shipbuilding plans may be considered.

Shift in International Security Environment

World events have led some observers, starting in late 2013, to conclude that the international security environment has undergone a shift over the past several years from the familiar post-Cold War era of the past 20-25 years, also sometimes known as the unipolar moment (with the United States as the unipolar power), to a new and different strategic situation that features, among other things, renewed great power competition and challenges to elements of the U.S.-led international order that has operated since World War II. This situation is discussed further in another CRS report.62

Declining U.S. Technological and Qualitative Edge

Department of Defense (DOD) officials have expressed concern that the technological and qualitative edge that U.S. military forces have had relative to the military forces of other countries is being narrowed by improving military capabilities in other countries. China's improving military capabilities are a primary contributor to that concern.63 Russia's rejuvenated military capabilities are an additional contributor. DOD in recent years has taken a number of actions to arrest and reverse the decline in the U.S. technological and qualitative edge.64

Challenge to U.S. Sea Control and U.S. Position in Western Pacific

Observers of Chinese and U.S. military forces view China's improving naval capabilities as posing a potential challenge in the Western Pacific to the U.S. Navy's ability to achieve and maintain control of blue-water ocean areas in wartime—the first such challenge the U.S. Navy has faced since the end of the Cold War.65 More broadly, these observers view China's naval capabilities as a key element of an emerging broader Chinese military challenge to the long-standing status of the United States as the leading military power in the Western Pacific.

U.S. Grand Strategy

Discussion of the above-mentioned shift in the international security environment has led to a renewed emphasis in discussions of U.S. security and foreign policy on grand strategy and geopolitics. From a U.S. perspective, grand strategy can be understood as strategy considered at a global or interregional level, as opposed to strategies for specific countries, regions, or issues. Geopolitics refers to the influence on international relations and strategy of basic world geographic features such as the size and location of continents, oceans, and individual countries.

From a U.S. perspective on grand strategy and geopolitics, it can be noted that most of the world's people, resources, and economic activity are located not in the Western Hemisphere, but in the other hemisphere, particularly Eurasia. In response to this basic feature of world geography, U.S. policymakers for the past several decades have chosen to pursue, as a key element of U.S. national strategy, a goal of preventing the emergence of a regional hegemon in one part of Eurasia or another, on the grounds that such a hegemon could represent a concentration of power strong enough to threaten core U.S. interests by, for example, denying the United States access to some of the other hemisphere's resources and economic activity. Although U.S. policymakers have not often stated this key national strategic goal explicitly in public, U.S. military (and diplomatic) operations in recent decades—both wartime operations and day-to-day operations—can be viewed as having been carried out in no small part in support of this key goal.

The traditional U.S. goal of preventing the emergence of a regional hegemon in one part of Eurasia or another is a major reason why the U.S. military has been structured with force elements that enable it to cross broad expanses of ocean and air space and then conduct sustained, large-scale military operations upon arrival. Force elements associated with this goal include, among other things, an Air Force with significant numbers of long-range bombers, long-range surveillance aircraft, long-range airlift aircraft, and aerial refueling tankers, and a Navy with significant numbers of aircraft carriers, nuclear-powered attack submarines, large surface combatants, large amphibious ships, and underway replenishment ships. This issue is discussed further in a CRS In Focus publication,66 and in Appendix K.

U.S. Strategic Rebalancing to Asia-Pacific Region

For decades, the Western Pacific has been a major operational area (i.e., operational "hub") for forward-deployed U.S. Navy forces. In coming years, the importance of the Western Pacific as an operational hub for forward-deployed U.S. Navy forces may grow further: A 2012 DOD strategic guidance document67 and DOD's report on the 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR)68 state that U.S. military strategy will place an increased emphasis on the Asia-Pacific region (meaning, for the U.S. Navy, the Western Pacific in particular). Although Administration officials state that this U.S. strategic rebalancing toward the Asia-Pacific region, as it is called, is not directed at any single country, many observers believe it is in no small part intended as a response to China's military (including naval) modernization effort and its assertive behavior regarding its maritime territorial claims. As one reflection of the U.S. strategic rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific region, Navy plans call for increasing over time the number of U.S. Navy ships that are deployed to the region on a day-to-day basis.

Continued Operations in Persian Gulf/Indian Ocean

In announcing the U.S. strategic rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific region, DOD officials noted that the United States would continue to maintain a forward-deployed military presence in the Middle East (meaning, for the U.S. Navy, primarily the Persian Gulf/Indian Ocean region). U.S. military operations to counter the Islamic State organization and other terrorist organizations in the Middle East are reinforcing demands for forward-deploying U.S. military forces, including U.S. naval forces, to that region.

Potential Increased Demand for U.S. Naval Forces Around Europe

During the Cold War, the Mediterranean was one of three major operational hubs for forward-deployed U.S. Navy forces (along with the Western Pacific and the Persian Gulf/Indian Ocean region). Following the end of the Cold War, the Mediterranean was deemphasized as an operating hub for forward-deployed U.S. Navy forces. This situation might be changing once again: Russia's seizure and annexation of Crimea in March 2014, Russia's actions in Eastern Ukraine, operations by Russian military forces around the periphery of Europe and in the Arctic, and developments in North Africa and Syria are once again focusing U.S. policymaker attention on U.S. military operations in Europe and its surrounding waters, and in the Arctic (meaning, for the U.S. Navy, potentially increased operations in the Mediterranean and perhaps the Norwegian Sea and the Arctic).

Longer Ship Deployments

U.S. Navy officials have testified that fully meeting requests from U.S. regional combatant commanders (CCDRs) for forward-deployed U.S. naval forces would require a Navy much larger than today's fleet. For example, Navy officials testified in March 2014 that a Navy of 450 ships would be required to fully meet CCDR requests for forward-deployed Navy forces.69 CCDR requests for forward-deployed U.S. Navy forces are adjudicated by DOD through a process called the Global Force Management Allocation Plan. The process essentially makes choices about how best to apportion a finite number forward-deployed U.S. Navy ships among competing CCDR requests for those ships. Even with this process, the Navy has lengthened the deployments of some ships in an attempt to meet policymaker demands for forward-deployed U.S. Navy ships. Although Navy officials are aiming to limit ship deployments to seven months, Navy ships in recent years have frequently been deployed for periods of eight months or more.

Limits on Defense Spending in Budget Control Act of 2011 as Amended

Limits on the "base" portion of the U.S. defense budget established by Budget Control Act of 2011, or BCA (S. 365/P.L. 112-25 of August 2, 2011), as amended, combined with some of the considerations above, have led to discussions among observers about how to balance competing demands for finite U.S. defense funds, and about whether programs for responding to China's military modernization effort can be adequately funded while also adequately funding other defense-spending priorities, such as initiatives for responding to Russia's actions in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe and U.S. operations for countering the Islamic State organization in the Middle East. U.S. Navy officials have stated that if defense spending remains constrained to levels set forth in the BCA as amended, the Navy in coming years will not be able to fully execute all the missions assigned to it under the 2012 DOD strategic guidance document.70

Appendix B. Earlier Navy Force-Structure Goals Dating Back to 2001

The table below shows earlier Navy force-structure goals dating back to 2001. The 308-ship force-level goal of March 2015, shown in the first column of the table, is the goal that was replaced by the 355-ship force-level goal released in December 2016.

Table B-1. Earlier Navy Force-Structure Goals Dating Back to 2001

Ship type

308-ship plan of March 2015

306-ship plan of January 2013

~310-316 ship plan of March 2012

Revised 313-ship plan of Septem-ber 2011

Changes to February 2006 313-ship plan announced through mid-2011

February 2006 Navy plan for 313-ship fleet

Early-2005 Navy plan for fleet of 260-325 ships

2002-2004 Navy plan for 375-ship Navya

2001 QDR plan for 310-ship Navy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

260-ships

325-ships

 

 

Ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs)

12b

12b

12-14b

12b

12b

14

14

14

14

14

Cruise missile submarines (SSGNs)

0c

0c

0-4c

4c

0c

4

4

4

4

2 or 4d

Attack submarines (SSNs)

48

48

~48

48

48

48

37

41

55

55

Aircraft carriers

11e

11e

11e

11e

11e

11f

10

11

12

12

Cruisers and destroyers

88

88

~90

94

94g

88

67

92

104

116

Frigates

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

 

Littoral Combat Ships (LCSs)

52

52

~55

55

55

55

63

82

56

0

Amphibious ships

34

33

~32

33

33h

31

17

24

37

36

MPF(F) shipsi

0j

0j

0j

0j

0j

12i

14i

20i

0i

0i

Combat logistics (resupply) ships

29

29

~29

30

30

30

24

26

42

34

Dedicated mine warfare ships

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

26k

16

Joint High Speed Vessels (JHSVs)

10l

10l

10l

10l

21l

3

0

0

0

0

Otherm

24

23

~23

16

24n

17

10

11

25

25

Total battle force ships

308

306

~310-316

313

328

313

260

325

375

310 or 312

Sources: Table prepared by CRS based on U.S. Navy data.

Note: QDR is Quadrennial Defense Review. The "~" symbol means approximately.

a. Initial composition. Composition was subsequently modified.

b. The Navy plans to replace the 14 current Ohio-class SSBNs with a new class of 12 next-generation SSBNs. For further discussion, see CRS Report R41129, Navy Columbia Class (Ohio Replacement) Ballistic Missile Submarine (SSBN[X]) Program: Background and Issues for Congress, by [author name scrubbed].

c. Although the Navy plans to continue operating its four SSGNs until they reach retirement age in the late 2020s, the Navy does not plan to replace these ships when they retire. This situation can be expressed in a table like this one with either a 4 or a 0.

d. The report on the 2001 QDR did not mention a specific figure for SSGNs. The Administration's proposed FY2001 DOD budget requested funding to support the conversion of two available Trident SSBNs into SSGNs, and the retirement of two other Trident SSBNs. Congress, in marking up this request, supported a plan to convert all four available SSBNs into SSGNs.

e. With congressional approval, the goal has been temporarily be reduced to 10 carriers for the period between the retirement of the carrier Enterprise (CVN-65) in December 2012 and entry into service of the carrier Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), currently scheduled for September 2015.

f. For a time, the Navy characterized the goal as 11 carriers in the nearer term, and eventually 12 carriers.

g. The 94-ship goal was announced by the Navy in an April 2011 report to Congress on naval force structure and missile defense.

h. The Navy acknowledged that meeting a requirement for being able to lift the assault echelons of 2.0 Marine Expeditionary Brigades (MEBs) would require a minimum of 33 amphibious ships rather than the 31 ships shown in the February 2006 plan. For further discussion, see CRS Report RL34476, Navy LPD-17 Amphibious Ship Procurement: Background, Issues, and Options for Congress, by [author name scrubbed].

i. Today's Maritime Prepositioning Force (MPF) ships are intended primarily to support Marine Corps operations ashore, rather than Navy combat operations, and thus are not counted as Navy battle force ships. The planned MPF (Future) ships, however, would have contributed to Navy combat capabilities (for example, by supporting Navy aircraft operations). For this reason, the ships in the planned MPF(F) squadron were counted by the Navy as battle force ships. The planned MPF(F) squadron was subsequently restructured into a different set of initiatives for enhancing the existing MPF squadrons; the Navy no longer plans to acquire an MPF(F) squadron.

j. The Navy no longer plans to acquire an MPF(F) squadron. The Navy, however, has procured or plans to procure some of the ships that were previously planned for the squadron—specifically, TAKE-1 class cargo ships, and Mobile Landing Platform (MLP)/Afloat Forward Staging Base (AFSB) ships. These ships are included in the total shown for "Other" ships. AFSBs are now called Expeditionary Support Base ships (ESBs).

k. The figure of 26 dedicated mine warfare ships included 10 ships maintained in a reduced mobilization status called Mobilization Category B. Ships in this status are not readily deployable and thus do not count as battle force ships. The 375-ship proposal thus implied transferring these 10 ships to a higher readiness status.

l. Totals shown include 5 ships transferred from the Army to the Navy and operated by the Navy primarily for the performance of Army missions.

m. This category includes, among other things, command ships and support ships.

n. The increase in this category from 17 ships under the February 2006 313-ship plan to 24 ships under the apparent 328-ship goal included the addition of one TAGOS ocean surveillance ship and the transfer into this category of six ships—three modified TAKE-1 class cargo ships, and three Mobile Landing Platform (MLP) ships—that were previously intended for the planned (but now canceled) MPF(F) squadron.

Appendix C. Comparison of First 10 Years of 30-Year Plans

Table C-1 and Table C-2 below show the first 10 years of planned annual ship procurement quantities and projected Navy force sizes in Navy 30-year shipbuilding plans dating back to the first such plan, which was submitted in 2000 in conjunction with the FY2001 budget. By reading vertically down each column, one can see how the ship procurement quantity or Navy force size projected for a given fiscal year changed as that year drew closer to becoming the current budget year.

Table C-1. Ship Procurement Quantities in First 10 Years of 30-Year Shipbuilding Plans

Years shown are fiscal years

FY of 30-year plan (year submitted)

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

FY01 plan (2000)

8

8

8

8

7

5

6

6

6

7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY02 plan (2001)

 

6

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY03 plan (2002)

 

 

5

5

7

7

11

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY04 plan (2003)

 

 

 

7

8

7

7

9

14

15

13

14

15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY05 plan (2004)

 

 

 

 

9

6

8

9

17

14

15

14

16

15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY06 plan (2005)

 

 

 

 

 

4

7

7

9

10

12

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY07 plan (2006)

 

 

 

 

 

 

7

7

11

12

14

13

12

11

11

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY08 plan (2007)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7

11

12

13

12

12

10

12

11

6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY09 plan (2008)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7

8

8

12

12

13

13

12

12

13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY10 plan (2009)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY11 plan (2010)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9

8

12

9

12

9

12

9

13

9

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY12 plan (2011)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10

13

11

12

9

12

10

12

8

9

 

 

 

 

 

FY13 plan (2012)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10

7

8

9

7

11

8

12

9

12

 

 

 

 

FY14 plan (2013)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8

8

7

9

9

10

10

10

11

14

 

 

 

FY15 plan (2014)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7

8

11

10

8

11

8

11

11

13

 

 

FY16 plan (2015)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9

10

10

9

10

9

11

13

12

10

 

FY17 plan (2016)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7

8

7

8

8

10

11

11

9

7

FY18 plan (2017)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9

7

8

8

10

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Source: Navy 30-year shipbuilding plans supplemented by annual Navy budget submissions (including 5-year shipbuilding plans) for fiscal years shown. n/a means not available—see notes below.

Notes: The FY2001 30-year plan submitted in 2000 was submitted under a one-time-only legislative provision, Section 1013 of the FY2000 National Defense Authorization Act (S. 1059/P.L. 106-65 of October 5, 1999). No provision required DOD to submit a 30-year shipbuilding plan in 2001 or 2002, when Congress considered DOD's proposed FY2002 and FY2003 DOD budgets. (In addition, no FYDP was submitted in 2001, the first year of the George W. Bush Administration.) Section 1022 of the FY2003 Bob Stump National Defense Authorization Act (H.R. 4546/P.L. 107-314 of December 2, 2002) created a requirement to submit a 30-year shipbuilding plan each year, in conjunction with each year's defense budget. This provision was codified at 10 U.S.C. 231. The first 30-year plan submitted under this provision was the one submitted in 2003, in conjunction with the proposed FY2004 DOD budget. For the next several years, 30-year shipbuilding plans were submitted each year, in conjunction with each year's proposed DOD budget. An exception occurred in 2009, the first year of the Obama Administration, when DOD submitted a proposed budget for FY2010 with no accompanying FYDP or 30-year Navy shipbuilding plan. Section 1023 of the FY2011 Ike Skelton National Defense Authorization Act (H.R. 6523/P.L. 111-383 of January 7, 2011) amended 10 U.S.C. 231 to require DOD to submit a 30-year shipbuilding plan once every four years, in the same year that DOD submits a Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR). Consistent with Section 1023, DOD did not submit a new 30-year shipbuilding plan at the time that it submitted the proposed FY2012 DOD budget. At the request of the House Armed Services Committee, the Navy submitted the FY2012 30-year (FY2012-FY2041) shipbuilding plan in late-May 2011. Section 1011 of the FY2012 National Defense Authorization Act (H.R. 1540/P.L. 112-81 of December 31, 2011) amended 10 U.S.C. 231 to reinstate the requirement to submit a 30-year shipbuilding plan each year, in conjunction with each year's defense budget.


Table C-2. Projected Navy Force Sizes in First 10 Years of 30-Year Shipbuilding Plans

Years shown are fiscal years

FY of 30-year plan (year submitted)

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

FY01 plan (2000)

316

315

313

313

313

311

311

304

305

305

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY02 plan (2001)

 

316

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY03 plan (2002)

 

 

314

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY04 plan (2003)

 

 

 

292

292

291

296

301

305

308

313

317

321

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY05 plan (2004)

 

 

 

 

290

290

298

303

308

307

314

320

328

326

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY06 plan (2005)

 

 

 

 

 

289

293

297

301

301

306

n/a

n/a

305

n/a

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY07 plan (2006)

 

 

 

 

 

 

285

294

299

301

306

315

317

315

314

317

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY08 plan (2007)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

286

289

293

302

310

311

307

311

314

322

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY09 plan (2008)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

286

287

289

290

293

287

288

291

301

309

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY10 plan (2009)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

287

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY11 plan (2010)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

284

287

287

285

285

292

298

305

311

315

 

 

 

 

 

 

FY12 plan (2011)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

290

287

286

286

297

301

311

316

322

324

 

 

 

 

 

FY13 plan (2012)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

285

279

276

284

285

292

300

295

296

298

 

 

 

 

FY14 plan (2013)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

282

270

280

283

291

300

295

296

297

297

 

 

 

FY15 plan (2014)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

274

280

286

295

301

304

304

306

311

313

 

 

FY16 plan (2015)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

282

284

294

300

304

306

309

310

315

317

 

FY17 plan (2016)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

287

295

300

306

308

310

309

311

313

309

Source: Navy 30-year shipbuilding plans supplemented by annual Navy budget submissions (including 5-year shipbuilding plans) for fiscal years shown. n/a means not available—see notes below.

Notes: The FY2001 30-year plan submitted in 2000 was submitted under a one-time-only legislative provision, Section 1013 of the FY2000 National Defense Authorization Act (S. 1059/P.L. 106-65 of October 5, 1999). No provision required DOD to submit a 30-year shipbuilding plan in 2001 or 2002, when Congress considered DOD's proposed FY2002 and FY2003 DOD budgets. Section 1022 of the FY2003 Bob Stump National Defense Authorization Act (H.R. 4546/P.L. 107-314 of December 2, 2002) created a requirement to submit a 30-year shipbuilding plan each year, in conjunction with each year's defense budget. This provision was codified at 10 U.S.C. 231. The first 30-year plan submitted under this provision was the one submitted in 2003, in conjunction with the proposed FY2004 DOD budget. For the next several years, 30-year shipbuilding plans were submitted each year, in conjunction with each year's proposed DOD budget. An exception occurred in 2009, the first year of the Obama Administration, when DOD submitted a proposed budget for FY2010 with no accompanying FYDP or 30-year Navy shipbuilding plan. The FY2006 plan included data for only selected years beyond FY2011. Section 1023 of the FY2011 Ike Skelton National Defense Authorization Act (H.R. 6523/P.L. 111-383 of January 7, 2011) amended 10 U.S.C. 231 to require DOD to submit a 30-year shipbuilding plan once every four years, in the same year that DOD submits a Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR). Consistent with Section 1023, DOD did not submit a new 30-year shipbuilding plan at the time that it submitted the proposed FY2012 DOD budget. At the request of the House Armed Services Committee, the Navy submitted the FY2012 30-year (FY2012-FY2041) shipbuilding plan in late-May 2011. Section 1011 of the FY2012 National Defense Authorization Act (H.R. 1540/P.L. 112-81 of December 31, 2011) amended 10 U.S.C. 231 to reinstate the requirement to submit a 30-year shipbuilding plan each year, in conjunction with each year's defense budget.

Appendix D. Comparing Past Ship Force Levels to Current or Potential Future Ship Force Levels

In assessing the appropriateness of the current or potential future number of ships in the Navy, observers sometimes compare that number to historical figures for total Navy fleet size. Historical figures for total fleet size, however, can be a problematic yardstick for assessing the appropriateness of the current or potential future number of ships in the Navy, particularly if the historical figures are more than a few years old, because

Regarding the first bullet point above, the Navy, for example, reached a late-Cold War peak of 568 battle force ships at the end of FY1987,71 and as of June 7, 2017, included a total of 277 battle force ships. The FY1987 fleet, however, was intended to meet a set of mission requirements that focused on countering Soviet naval forces at sea during a potential multitheater NATO-Warsaw Pact conflict, while the June 2017 fleet is intended to meet a considerably different set of mission requirements centered on influencing events ashore by countering both land- and sea-based military forces of potential regional threats other than Russia, including improved Chinese military forces and nonstate terrorist organizations. In addition, the Navy of FY1987 differed substantially from the June 2017 fleet in areas such as profusion of precision-guided air-delivered weapons, numbers of Tomahawk-capable ships, and the sophistication of C4ISR systems and networking capabilities.72

In coming years, Navy missions may shift again, and the capabilities of Navy ships will likely have changed further by that time due to developments such as more comprehensive implementation of networking technology, increased use of ship-based unmanned vehicles, and the potential fielding of new types of weapons such as lasers or electromagnetic rail guns.

The 568-ship fleet of FY1987 may or may not have been capable of performing its stated missions; the 277-ship fleet of June 2017 may or may not be capable of performing its stated missions; and a fleet years from now with a certain number of ships may or may not be capable of performing its stated missions. Given changes over time in mission requirements, ship mixes, and technologies, however, these three issues are to a substantial degree independent of one another.

For similar reasons, trends over time in the total number of ships in the Navy are not necessarily a reliable indicator of the direction of change in the fleet's ability to perform its stated missions. An increasing number of ships in the fleet might not necessarily mean that the fleet's ability to perform its stated missions is increasing, because the fleet's mission requirements might be increasing more rapidly than ship numbers and average ship capability. Similarly, a decreasing number of ships in the fleet might not necessarily mean that the fleet's ability to perform stated missions is decreasing, because the fleet's mission requirements might be declining more rapidly than numbers of ships, or because average ship capability and the percentage of time that ships are in deployed locations might be increasing quickly enough to more than offset reductions in total ship numbers.

Regarding the second of the two bullet points above, it can be noted that comparisons of the size of the fleet today with the size of the fleet in earlier years rarely appear to consider whether the fleet was appropriately sized in those earlier years (and therefore potentially suitable as a yardstick of comparison), even though it is quite possible that the fleet in those earlier years might not have been appropriately sized, and even though there might have been differences of opinion among observers at that time regarding that question. Just as it might not be prudent for observers years from now to tacitly assume that the 275-ship Navy of September 2016 was appropriately sized for meeting the mission requirements of 2016, even though there were differences of opinion among observers on that question (as reflected, for example, in Table G-1), simply because a figure of 275 ships appears in the historical records for 2016, so, too, might it not be prudent for observers today to tacitly assume that the number of ships of the Navy in an earlier year was appropriate for meeting the Navy's mission requirements that year, even though there might have been differences of opinion among observers at that time regarding that question, simply because the size of the Navy in that year appears in a table like Table L-1.

Previous Navy force structure plans, such as those shown in Table B-1, might provide some insight into the potential adequacy of a proposed new force-structure plan, but changes over time in mission requirements, technologies available to ships for performing missions, and other force-planning factors, as well as the possibility that earlier force-structure plans might not have been appropriate for meeting the mission demands of their times, suggest that some caution should be applied in using past force structure plans for this purpose, particularly if those past force structure plans are more than a few years old. The Reagan-era plan for a 600-ship Navy, for example, was designed for a Cold War set of missions focusing on countering Soviet naval forces at sea, which is not an appropriate basis for planning the Navy today, and there was considerable debate during those years as to the appropriateness of the 600-ship goal.73

Appendix E. Independent Panel Assessment of 2010 QDR

The law that once required DOD to perform Quadrennial Defense Reviews (QDRs) once every four years (10 U.S.C. 118) stated that the results of each QDR were to be assessed by an independent panel.74 The report of the independent panel that assessed the 2010 QDR was released on July 29, 2010. The independent panel's report recommended a Navy of 346 ships, including 11 aircraft carriers and 55 attack submarines.75 The report stated the following, among other things:

In recommending a Navy of 346 ships, the independent panel's report cited the 1993 Bottom-Up Review (BUR) of U.S. defense plans and policies. Table E-1 compares the Navy's 355-ship goal of December 2016 to the 346-ship Navy recommended in the 1993 BUR (as detailed partly in subsequent Navy testimony and publications) and the ship force levels recommended in the independent panel report.

Table E-1. Comparison of Navy's 355-ship goal, Navy Plan from 1993 BUR, and Navy Plan from 2010 QDR Review Panel

Ship Type

Navy's 355-ship goal of December 2016

Bottom-Up Review (BUR) (1993)

2010 QDR Independent Review Panel (July 2010)

SSBNs

12

18

(SSBN force was later reduced to 14 as a result of the 1994 Nuclear Posture Review)

14

SSGNs

0

0

(SSGN program did not yet exist)

4

SSNs

66

45 to 55

(55 in FY99, with a long-term goal of about 45)

55

Aircraft carriers

12

11 active + 1 operational/reserve

11 active

Surface combatants

156

124

(114 active + 10 frigates in Naval Reserve Force; a total of 110-116 active ships was also cited)

n/a

Large surface combatants (i.e., cruisers and destroyers

104

n/a

n/a

Small surface combatants (i.e., LCSs and frigates)

52

10 frigates in Naval Reserve Force

n/a

Amphibious ships

38

(34 operational ships needed to lift 2.0 MEBs)

41

(Enough to lift 2.5 MEBs)

n/a

Dedicated mine warfare ships

0

(to be replaced by LCSs)

26

(LCS program did not exist)

n/a

CLF ships

32

43

n/a

Support ships

39

22

n/a

TOTAL ships

355

346

(numbers above add to 331-341)a

346

Source: Table prepared by CRS. Sources for 1993 Bottom-Up Review: Department of Defense, Report on the Bottom-Up Review, October 1993, Figure 7 on page 28; Department of the Navy, Highlights of the FY 1995 Department of the Navy Budget, February 1994, p. 1; Department of the Navy, Force 2001, A Program Guide to the U.S. Navy, 1994 edition, p. 15; Statement of VADM T. Joseph Lopez, U.S. Navy, Deputy Chief of Naval Operations (Resources, Warfare Requirements & Assessments), Testimony to the Military Forces and Personnel Subcommittee of the House Armed Services Committee, March 22, 1994, pp. 2-5. Source for independent panel report: Stephen J. Hadley and William J. Perry, co-chairmen, et al., The QDR in Perspective: Meeting America's National Security Needs In the 21st Century, The Final Report of the Quadrennial Defense Review Independent Panel, Washington, 2010, Figure 3-2 on pages 58-59.

Notes: n/a is not addressed in the report. SSBN is nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine; SSGN is nuclear-powered cruise missile and special operations forces submarine; SSN is nuclear-powered attack submarine; LCS is Littoral Combat Ship; MPF(F) is Maritime Prepositioning Force (Future) ship; CLF is combat logistics force (i.e., resupply) ship; MEB is Marine Expeditionary Brigade.

a. The Navy testified in 1994 that the planned number was adjusted from 346 to 330 to reflect reductions in numbers of tenders and early retirements of some older amphibious ships.

In a letter dated August 11, 2010, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates provided his comments on the independent panel's report. The letter stated in part:

I completely agree with the Panel that a strong navy is essential; however, I disagree with the Panel's recommendation that DoD should establish the 1993 Bottom Up Review's (BUR's) fleet of 346 ships as the objective target. That number was a simple projection of the then-planned size of [the] Navy in FY 1999, not a reflection of 21st century, steady-state requirements. The fleet described in the 2010 QDR report, with its overall target of 313 to 321 ships, has roughly the same number of aircraft carriers, nuclear-powered attack submarines, surface combatants, mine warfare vessels, and amphibious ships as the larger BUR fleet. The main difference between the two fleets is in the numbers of combat logistics, mobile logistics, and support ships. Although it is true that the 2010 fleet includes fewer of these ships, they are all now more efficiently manned and operated by the Military Sealift Command and meet all of DoD's requirements….

I agree with the Panel's general conclusion that DoD ought to enhance its overall posture and capabilities in the Asia-Pacific region. As I outlined in my speech at the Naval War College in April 2009, "to carry out the missions we may face in the future… we will need numbers, speed, and the ability to operate in shallow waters." So as the Air-Sea battle concept development reaches maturation, and as DoD's review of global defense posture continues, I will be looking for ways to meet plausible security threats while emphasizing sustained forward presence – particularly in the Pacific.76

Appendix F. Fleet Architecture Studies Required by FY2016 NDAA

This appendix summarizes the results of the three fleet architecture studies required by Section 1067 of the FY2016 National Defense Authorization Act (S. 1356/P.L. 114-92 of November 25, 2015).

Navy Project Team Study

Section 1067 of P.L. 114-92 required one of the three fleet architecture studies to be done by the Department of the Navy, with participants from the Office of Net Assessment within the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) and the Naval Surface Warfare Center Dahlgren Division.77 The resulting Navy project team was led by the Deputy Director of the Assessment Division (N81) within the office of the Chief of Naval Operations, and also included participants from the Office of Net Assessment, the Naval Surface Warfare Center Dahlgren Division, the Naval Postgraduate School, the Naval War College, the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), and other Navy staff. The alternative fleet architecture proposed by the Navy project team represents the view of the team members, as opposed to the official position of the Navy as a whole, which is reflected in the 355-ship force-level goal and the associated 30-year shipbuilding plan.

Table F-1 compares the composition of the Navy in 2030 under the Navy's 30-year shipbuilding plan to the composition of the Navy in 2030 under the Navy project team's proposed alternative fleet architecture.

Table F-1. Fleet Architecture Study by Navy Project Team: Summary of Force Level in 2030

Navy force structure in 2030: current Navy plan vs. Navy project team's alternative

Ship Type

Current Navy Plan

Navy Project Team Alternative

Manned ships

 

 

Ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs)

11

12

Attack submarines (SSNs)

42

53

SSN-21 (Seawolf) class

2

2

SSN-774 (Virginia) class

29

28

SSN-774 (Virginia) class with Virginia Payload Module (VPM)

11

23

Aircraft carriers

11

14

Large-deck carriers (CVNs)

11

11

Medium-sized aircraft carriers (CVLs)

0

3

Large surface combatants

95

91

CG-47 class cruisers

11

0

DDG-1000 class destroyers

3

3

DDG-51 class destroyers

81

83

DDGH destroyers

0

5

Small surface combatants

40

48

Littoral Combat Ships (LCSs)

29

28

Frigates (including frigate-variant LCSs)

11

20

Amphibious ships

37

35

LHA/LHD-class large-deck amphibious assault ships

11

10

LPD-17 class amphibious ships

12

12

LSD-41/49 class amphibious ships

9

9

LX(R) class amphibious ships

5

4

Combat Logistics Force (CLF) ships

30

30

TAOE-type replenishment ships

2

2

TAKE-type dry cargo ships

12

12

TAO-type oilers

16

16

Expeditionary fast transport ships (EPFs and HSTs)

13

10

Command and support ships

18

16

Navy fleet tugs/salvage ships

8

0

Commercial fleet tugs/salvage ships

0

8

Submarine tender (AS)

2

1

TAGOS-type ocean surveillance ships

6

7

LCC-type command ships

2

0

Maritime prepositioning ships

7

12

MPS-assigned TAKE-type dry cargo ships

2

2

Expeditionary Transfer Dock ships (T-ESDs)

2

2

Expeditionary Sea Base ships (T-ESBs)

3

5

CHAMP (Common Hull Auxiliary Multi-mission Platform)

0

3

SUBTOTAL Manned Ships

304

321

Large unmanned vehicles

10

136

Large unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs)

10

48

Large unmanned surface vehicles (USVs)

0

88

TOTAL manned ships and large unmanned vehicles

314

457

Source: Table prepared by CRS based on Navy Project Team, Report to Congress, Alternative Future Fleet Platform Architecture Study, October 27, 2016, 25 pp.

The Navy project team study stated:

The Navy Project Team postulated that the U.S. will continue to provide strong and sustained leadership for a rules-based international order that promotes global security and prosperity through the 2030s. To support this leadership role, the Navy Project Team identified the key missions for the U.S. Navy:

- protecting the homeland

- building security globally

- establishing sea control

- projecting power

- winning decisively

To accomplish these missions, the Navy Project Team derived a 'Distributed Fleet' architecture designed to provide strong and sustained forward presence to influence and shape geopolitical events, respond to crises, reassure allies and partners, and deter potential aggressors. The Distributed Fleet was further conceived to deliver decisive combat power, as part of a joint force, to defeat U.S. adversaries if deterrence failed.

As envisioned by the Navy Project Team, the Distributed Fleet would encompass a widely dispersed, expansively networked set of air, surface, and sub-surface platforms capable of delivering both kinetic and non-kinetic effects and supported by survivable logistics. Navy systems would be part of an assured, agile information-sharing environment that would present opportunities to engage enemy platforms before they could attack. The Distributed Fleet would focus on fleet-wide coordination and action. That approach would enable a greater reliance on strikes delivered from combat nodes beyond the strike group, which in turn would allow the carrier air wing to focus more on surveillance, targeting, and electronic attack.

The Distributed Fleet would employ three mutually-supporting concepts of operations (CONOPS):

• Distributed Fleet Lethality

• Electromagnetic Maneuver Warfare

• Distributed, Agile Logistics

The Distributed Fleet would consist of 457 ships – 321 manned and 136 large unmanned vehicles – and 1,220 sea-based Navy aircraft, supported by requisite enabling capabilities and improved readiness and sustainability.78

MITRE Corporation Study

Section 1067 of P.L. 114-92 required one of the three fleet architecture studies to be done by a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC). The MITRE Corporation was chosen to do the study.79 Table F-2, which reprints (with minor clarifications) a table from the MITRE study, summarizes that study's recommendations.

Table F-2. Fleet Architecture Study by MITRE Corporation: Summary of Recommendations

Summary of recommendations for 15-year (FY2016-FY2030) shipbuilding plan

Recommendation

Increase Effectiveness

Reduce Cost

Increase Capacity

1. Immediately cancel Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) production.

 

X

 

2. Procure an additional DDG-51 [Aegis destroyer] per year, using funds available from LCS termination, until a new frigate for Integrated Air Missile Defense (IAMD) is under construction.

X

 

 

3. Augment existing CG-47s and DDG-51s [Aegis cruisers and destroyers] with a magazine ship to increase weapon capacity and provide a long-range strike capability to the surface force.

X

 

X

4. Fix the naval aviation [carrier-based strike-fighter] shortfall by deferring or reducing the F-35C [carrier-capable Joint Strike Fighter] procurement [and instead procure] additional F/A-18 E/Fs [Super Hornet strike fighters].

 

 

X

5. Develop an aerial [i.e., airborne] layer for Integrated Air Missile Defense (IAMD) that is integrated with the corresponding IAMD platforms [i.e., ships] in the surface force.

X

 

 

6. Delay the Ford [CVN-78 class] class CVN procurement to align with the number of CVWs [carrier air wings].

 

X

 

7. Modify the Ford [CVN-78] design or develop a conventional[ly powered aircraft carrier] alternative to reduce [unit procurement] cost to less than $11 billion.

 

X

 

8. Continue America [LHA-6] class amphibious assault ship procurement but consider a small carrier option, with catapults for fixed-wing flight operations, as a potential alternative in the late 2020s.

X

 

 

9. Do not procure any more San Antonio [LPD-17] class LPDs beyond what is planned.

 

X

 

10. Consider some near-term alternatives to the current plans for the [planned] LXR class of [amphibious] ships to support disaggregated expeditionary operations.

 

X

X

11. Continue to build two Virginia class SSNs per year, each [equipped] with VPMs [Virginia Payload Modules] after [FY]2019.

X

 

X

12. License and produce diesel [-electric] submarines as [a] lower-cost platform to augment the SSN force.

 

X

X

Source: MITRE Corporation, Navy Future Fleet Platform Architecture Study, July 1, 2016, Table 2 n page 4.

Notes: The magazine ship mentioned in recommendation 3 is described in on page 31 of the MITRE report as follows: "The Navy should build low-cost magazine ships to act as "wingmen" for large surface combatants. To keep the costs low, these ships would be based on either a commercial or civilian manned fleet oiler (T-AO) hull that can keep up with the surface combatant. The future T-AO (T-AO 205) is projected to cost roughly $0.5 billion, and using the same basic hull should keep the magazine ship within the same price range, with some additional cost for increased speed to operate with CSG [carrier strike group]."

The MITRE Corporation study stated:

Findings

The future international security environment continues to be complex and uncertain. The current Department of Defense (DoD) planning, programming and budgeting process is being redirected by the national security challenges posed by China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and the Islamic State.

The U.S. and its allies have maintained a decisive technological advantage for more than 40 years, but this advantage is rapidly disappearing as the guided missile age reaches full maturity. Missile speeds, elusiveness, and precision – for example – all continue to increase. Coastal defense missile batteries can cover a radius of 700 or 800 miles today, compared to 70 or 80 miles just a few years ago. Supersonic anti-ship missiles that currently travel at Mach 2 will be supplanted by hypersonic missiles that will travel at speeds well in excess of Mach 5. As the costs of these weapons become increasingly inexpensive, they will continue to proliferate and adversary inventories will continue to increase.

Advances in sensor technology, including new passive and active methods, and its commercialization enable detection and targeting at extreme ranges. Weapons with extended ranges are not fully effective unless an adversary can also identify targets at these ranges. In the past, nations spent enormous resources to build sensing capabilities that are commercially available today. For example, BlackSky plans to launch a sixty satellite constellation by 2019 that will provide in excess of 40 re-visits per day in the equatorial region. The Navy should continue to invest in capabilities to prevent adversary targeting, but cannot rely on ships remaining hidden for extended periods in a 2030 environment.

The Navy's current force structure is essentially a scaled down version of the balanced force that exited World War II. This forces [sic] consists of attack submarines; aircraft carriers; large and small surface combatants; amphibious ships; and combat logistics. The only fundamentally new platform since World War II is the ballistic missile submarine, which is part of the nuclear triad.

Force structure decisions based on the post-Cold War peace dividend do not reflect the current national security environment. In 2014, OPNAV N81 [Office of the Chief of Naval Operations Assessment Division] completed a force structure assessment to determine 2030 fleet warfighting requirements. After reviewing the original 2012 N81 analyses and the 2014 update, MITRE assessed the force structure needed to defeat one and deter another near-peer adversary in a revised scenario, which is more representative of the current world situation.... While this force structure level is not recommended, it does imply that the current Navy force structure and capabilities would not be sufficient to meet the DSG given the current world situation....

[The] Navy's budget is insufficient to fund required force levels. The Navy's budget is insufficient to develop, procure, operate, and sustain all the forces need to meet the revised defeat/hold scenario force structure. In addition, budget instability forces the Navy to make acquisition decisions that undermine affordability initiatives. By the end of 2016, the national debt will be $20 trillion dollars—more than triple what it was on 11 September 2011—and for the last four years, the Navy has been operating under reduced top-lines and significant shortfalls. There will likely continue to be increasing pressure on the procurement accounts, which in turn threatens the near-term health of the defense industrial base.

Recommendations

Table 2 [in the MITRE study—reprinted above as Table F-2] contains a list of recommended modifications to the Navy's 30-Year shipbuilding plan. The analysis of a revised defeat / tailored hold scenario... suggests a shortfall of 110 ships by FY30 with the current 30-year shipbuilding program. Building 110 additional ships is unrealistic, so MITRE makes recommendations across the full scope of the Future Fleet Architecture to improve its overall effectiveness. However, the only means achieving both effectiveness and capacity, within the constraints of affordability, is to build a mix of exquisite (i.e., high), capable (i.e., moderate), and expendable (i.e., low) platforms.

The tradeoffs embedded within these recommendations are: 1) additional large surface combatants (LSCs) at the expense of small surface combatants (SSCs); 2) more attack submarines (SS); and 3) introduce lower cost ship concepts to pay for increased SS production. The total estimated shipbuilding cost for this battle force is about $257 billion through FY30, which translates into an average shipbuilding budget of $17.1 billion per year (not including support ships). Given the average Navy shipbuilding budget of $16.9 billion between 2016 and 2025 (including support ships), the proposed shipbuilding plan is reasonable. It delivers 20 additional ships and a more capable force by 2030 within the existing shipbuilding budget, potentially with some moderate increases....

Critical Enablers

There are a number of additional factors, other than ships, that contribute to the overall effectiveness of the force:

Aircraft procurement. The recommendation to defer or reduce the F-35C [carrier-capable Joint Strike Fighter] procurement for additional F/A-18 E/Fs [Super Hornets]... impacts the aircraft procurement line in the Navy budget, but has implications for the shipbuilding line.

Weapons procurement. Three capabilities in this report require procuring four new weapon systems, in addition to more of what the Navy already has in the inventory. The development of these new weapons and procuring them in numbers sufficient to matter in 2030 impacts the weapons procurement budget.

Integrated Kinetic Effects. A strategy is needed to defeat large raids of anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles with a combination of long-range, mid-range, and point defense capabilities—from both surface combatants and aircraft—as well as more long-range offensive strike options. Implicit within this strategy is the ability to: 1) place naval forces in positions that are useful, 2) coordinate the employment of different weapons and platforms to mitigate the raid or achieve the desired effect, and 3) optimize the use of the force (e.g., appropriate target-weapon pairing). This implies: assured command and control (C2) functions for planning and coordination across the force, tactical data links to support cooperative engagement, and fusing data from both tactical and national sensors to detect, track, and identify targets.

Integrated Non-Kinetic Effects. The ability to control a ship's signature, create false targets, seduce adversary weapons away from ships, etc. are all key capabilities to create uncertainty within an adversary's kill chain and reduce their effectiveness. While this study mainly focuses on a range of kinetic capabilities and effects required by the fleet, non-kinetic effects are also needed to increase the survivability of the force. The ability to reduce adversary re-visit rates over the naval force or getting them to commit to the wrong area correspondingly reduces the number and, potentially, the size of raids the naval force must overcome. Also, no defense is perfect, so it is critical to have non-kinetic effects to defeat whatever missiles or platforms leak through the Integrated Air and Missile defense (IAMD) of the naval force. Similarly, cyber effects are a critical aspect of future wars and are described in the classified annex to this report.

Undersea Enablers. "Networked undersea forces will act as a key to unlock the door for decisive force to enter the fight and seize and maintain the initiative."80 To achieve this end, the capability to connect submarines, autonomous unmanned vehicles, distributed sensor networks, undersea cables, and a variety of other systems is a critical enabler for not only building and sharing a comprehensive understanding of the undersea environment, but maintaining a comparative advantage in the undersea domain. Similarly, the global proliferation of stealthy submarines with advanced capabilities and the growing threat that these undersea forces pose necessitates that the Navy must sustain and recapitalize its fixed, mobile, and deployable acoustic arrays that provide vital tactical cueing to anti-submarine warfare (ASW) forces.

CSBA Study

Section 1067 of P.L. 114-92 required one of the three fleet architecture studies to be done by "an independent, non-governmental institute which is described in section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, and exempt from tax under section 501(a) of such Code, and has recognized credentials and expertise in national security and military affairs." The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) was chosen to do the study.81

Table F-3 compares the composition of the Navy's 355-ship force-level goal with the force structure recommended in the CSBA study.

Table F-3. Fleet Architecture Study by CSBA: Summary of Force-Level Goal

Compared to Navy's 355-Ship Force-level Goal

 

Navy 355-ship force-level goal

CSBA-proposed force structure

Manned Ships

 

 

Ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs)

12

12

Attack submarines (SSNs)

66

66

Aircraft carriers

12

22

Large-deck carriers (CVNs)

12

12

Medium-sized carriers (CVLs) (note LHA-LHD figures below)

0

10

Large surface combatants

104

74

CG-47 class cruisers

22

0

DDG-1000 class destroyers

3

3

DDG-51 class destroyers

79

71

Small surface combatants

52

71 or 113

Littoral Combat Ships (LCSs)

28

0

Frigates

24

71

Patrol vessel (not included in total below of battle force ships)

0

42

Amphibious ships

38

29

LHA-LHD-type large-deck amphibious assault ships (note CVL figures above)

12

0

LPD-type amphibious ships

13

29

LSD-LX(R)-type amphibious ships

13

 

Combat Logistics Force (CLF) ships

32

31

TAOs (oilers)

20

0

TAOEs (large oilers)

0

26

TAKE-type dry cargo ships

12

4

Large dry stores transport ships with VLS (vertical launch system)

0

1

Expeditionary fast transport ships (EPFs and HSTs)

10

0

Unmanned vehicle support ships

0

14

Command and support ships

19

14

LCCs (command ships)

2

3

ASs (submarine tenders)

2

5

TAGOS (ocean surveillance ships)

7

5

ATSs (fleet towing, salvage, and rescue ships)

8

6

Maritime Prepositioning Ships

10

2

MPS-assigned TAKE-type dry cargo ships

2

0

Expeditionary Transfer Dock ships (T-ESDs)

2

0

Expeditionary Sea Base ships (T-ESBs)

6

2

TOTAL, manned ships (battle force ships)

355

340

TOTAL, manned ships (battle force ships + patrol vessels)

355

382

Unmanned Vehicles (not specified in Navy's 355-ship plan)

 

 

XLUSVs (extra-large unmanned surface vehicles)

not specified

40

XLUUVs (extra-large unmanned underwater vehicles)

not specified

40

MQ-4 Triton UAV detachments (3 aircraft each)

not specified

14

Unmanned vehicle squadrons

not specified

6

Manned aircraft (not specified in Navy's 355-ship plan)

 

 

P-8 detachments (3 aircraft each)

not specified

44

Source: Bryan Clark et al, Restoring American Seapower: A New Fleet Architecture for the United States Navy, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2017, p. viii.

Note: Under the Navy's 355-ship plan, the 22 CG-47 class cruisers are to be eventually replaced by DDGs and a future large surface combatant.

The CSBA study stated:

A New Strategic Approach

Since the Berlin Wall fell, naval force structure requirements reflected an expectation that America's main military challenges would come from regional powers such as Iraq, North Korea, Iran, and terrorist groups. Until now, these adversaries lacked the ability to defeat a U.S. ally rapidly or prevent American forces from coming to the ally's defense. Naval force structure investments, therefore, focused on efficiently maintaining a visible presence in important regions, rather than on what would be needed to fight a peer competitor. Even if forces on or near the scene were unable to stop an act of aggression, in-theater naval and other forces could enable the mobilization of a U.S. and allied response to reverse the adversary's gains, as in the 1991 Gulf War, or overthrow the adversary's regime, as in the wars in Kosovo, Afghanistan, or Iraq.

Potential great power adversaries such as China and Russia are improving their capabilities and making it less likely that the mere presence of U.S. forces will deter them. Most significantly, their long-range air defense and strike systems could prevent the United States and its allies from mobilizing a conventional response in an adjacent theater as was done in the lead-up to the wars in Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Instead of responding to aggression after the fact, to deter increasingly revisionist great powers U.S. forces will need the capabilities and operational concepts to deny them the objectives of their aggression or to punish them until the aggression stops.

This "deny-and-punish" approach to conventional deterrence is how the United States and its allies countered the Soviet threat during the Cold War, and it has significant implications for fleet architecture. This strategic approach will increase America's reliance on forward-postured forces—particularly naval forces—that could rapidly interdict aggression and conduct attacks on targets the enemy values to compel the aggression to stop. Naval units at sea are less subject to host nation restrictions than air and ground forces and give the United States the ability to act unilaterally, reducing opportunities for an aggressor to pressure neighboring countries into limiting an American response. Navies can also lend themselves to more proportional, tailored responses since each ship is an independent, self-sustaining unit able to deploy in smaller force packages than ground or air forces that require large-footprint shore-based support and force protection.

New Operating Concepts

The return of great power competition suggests dramatic changes to how U.S. naval forces will have to operate by the 2030s. The new operating concepts proposed by this study are designed to conduct the range of missions likely required of naval forces and address the ability of great power competitors to contest areas around their territory. The central objective of these concepts is enabling U.S. naval forces to conduct offensive operations against enemy forces engaging in aggression in contested areas and attack targets of value to punish the enemy until aggression stops....

Each of these concepts assumes a highly contested communications environment that will demand an increased reliance on short-range low probability of intercept/low probability of detection (LPI/LPD) communications and individual commanders leading operations without higher headquarters guidance.

These concepts also employ more unmanned systems to a larger degree than the current force for surveillance, targeting, countering enemy sensors, and delivering weapons. They do not, however, replace manned platforms with unmanned systems to a significant extent. Communications constraints in contested areas will limit the ability of naval forces to command and control unmanned systems over a wide area. Manned platforms will be needed to manage unmanned vehicles and systems and provide the accountability to employ weapons. Moreover, the need for naval forces to focus on deterrence will reduce their ability to use unmanned systems for forward operations, since unmanned vehicles may not have the same deterrent effect as a manned platform and could be more easily neutralized or tampered with by an adversary.

Changing the Deployed Fleet

Changes are needed in the Navy's deployed forces to enable them to deter great power aggression using the new operational concepts described above. Given the short timelines in which aggression could occur and escalate against U.S. allies in East Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, the size and composition of deployed naval forces may make the difference between an adversary being deterred or perceiving an opportunity to act.

To address the challenges posed by Russia and China, the Navy will need to focus on sustaining an effective posture for conventional deterrence rather than an efficient presence to meet near-term operational needs. The posture should address the most significant shortfalls of today's presence: the fact that the current approach does not necessarily position the right capabilities in the right places at the right time to counter great power aggression, and it does not provide the time or ability for the fleet to maintain its material condition, become proficient, and adapt to dynamic and capable adversaries.

This study proposes dividing the deployed fleet into two main groups: "Deterrence Forces" that are organized into discrete regions rather than Combatant Commander (CCDR) areas of responsibility (AOR), and a "Maneuver Force" that is assigned broadly to the Indo–Asia–Pacific theater and composed of the carrier strike groups (CSG) deployed today in the Central and Pacific CCDR AORs. Separating the deployed fleet into these two main groups enables Deterrence Forces to be tailored to their region and improves their ability to prepare and adapt to adversary advancements. And because Deterrence Forces will remain in their region, the Maneuver Force is able to respond to tensions and conflict in any part of the Indo–Asia–Pacific theater, including the Middle East, without leaving an opening for opportunistic aggression by an adversary seeking to exploit a shift in U.S. focus to the area of conflict.

Operationally, separating the deployed fleet into Deterrence Forces and the Maneuver Force enables commanders to align elements of the fleet with the appropriate mission. Deterrence Forces would consist of surface combatants, submarines, and amphibious ships that can provide prompt, high-capacity fires to deter an adversary seeking a rapid fait accompli, such as China or Russia. The Maneuver Force would consist of a Multi-Carrier Task Group designed to deliver sustained combat power at moderate levels over an indefinite period in relief of Deterrence Forces.

A Revised Naval Posture

The size and composition of deployed naval forces, their deployment locations, and their overseas basing create an overall naval posture. In contrast to today's emphasis on the number of ships present in a CCDR AOR, posture connotes an overall capability to conduct and sustain combat operations. In a period of great power competition, posture—not presence—will need to be the focus of a future fleet architecture.

The Deterrence Force posture in each region is designed to sustain the ability to promptly deny adversaries their likely objectives and attack targets the enemy would value. The characteristics of Deterrence Forces are focused on great powers such as China and Russia, but they address strategically located regional powers such as Iran or North Korea. Perhaps more importantly, Deterrence Force naval posture includes the attributes needed to reassure allies and partners of U.S. resolve and capability to defend their interests. In peacetime, Deterrence Forces would conduct day-to-day operations such as maritime security and disaster response, particularly with the maritime forces of allies and partners, but these missions do not drive the composition of Deterrence Forces....

The new fleet architecture includes two types of forward basing in each region. Forward-based forces are homeported in the region, such as Forward Deployed Naval Forces (FDNF) in Japan or Spain today, with their crews and dependents living in the region near the homeport. Forward-stationed forces use rotational crews from the continental United States (CONUS) to operate platforms that remain forward for several crew rotations, similar to how Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) or guided missile submarines (SSGN) are crewed today.

Deployed forces will also include the Maneuver Force, consisting of two CSGs and the Maritime Prepositioning Force deployed in the Indo–Asia–Pacific region. The Maneuver Force will conduct exercises and experimentation and respond to heightened tension and aggression throughout the theater.

New Force Packages, Platforms, and Unmanned Systems

Executing the operating concepts above in highly contested environments as part of the Deterrence and Maneuver Forces will require new naval force packages as well as some new platforms and payloads....

The deployed posture proposed by this fleet architecture incorporates force packages appropriate to the operations needed in each region to deny and punish aggression or conduct likely steady-state operations.

Changes to Readiness and Training Cycles

The number of each type of unit needed in the overall fleet architecture results from the number deployed at any given time and the rotational readiness cycle that prepares them for deployment. For example, a unit that deploys for 6 months of each 2-year cycle will need at least four units to maintain one continuously deployed.

U.S. naval forces currently operate in rotational cycles consisting of deployments, maintenance, training, and certification for the next deployment. Different platform types use different rotational cycles based on their maintenance requirements and complexity of training. Rotational cycles also differ between those based in CONUS and those based overseas. The proposed fleet architecture proposes changes to these readiness cycles to improve the ability of fleet units to learn, experiment, adapt, and provide more time for maintenance of platforms and systems between deployments....

Compared to the Deterrence Force, the Maneuver Force will need to be prepared for a wider range of possible operational environments, more potential adversaries, a larger number of alliance relationships, and a higher likelihood of being faced with high-intensity sustained combat. Therefore, it would employ a lower OPTEMPO readiness cycle like today's CONUS-based forces to provide more time to prepare for deployment compared to the Deterrence Forces....

Implementing the Proposed Fleet Architecture

The proposed architecture will likely cost about 10–20 percent more to build, operate, and sustain than the Navy's planned [308-ship] fleet. The shipbuilding industrial base could reach the objective number for each ship type of the proposed fleet architecture in the 2030s, but the Navy will need to modify its shipbuilding plans to achieve the size and composition of the proposed fleet architecture.

The alternative shipbuilding plan that delivers the proposed fleet architecture will cost an average of $23.2 billion per year, 18 percent more than the $19.7 billion annual cost of the draft 30-year shipbuilding plan associated with the President's Budget for FY 2017 (PB17). If the Navy expands the Combat Logistics Force (CLF) fleet to meet the wartime demands of the proposed fleet architecture, the average annual cost rises to $23.6 billion, 20 percent greater than the PB17 plan. The operations and maintenance (O&M) costs associated with the proposed fleet architecture plan will cost an average of $16.5 billion per year, 14 percent more than the $14.6 billion associated with the PB17 budget....

Conclusion...

To be deterred in the 2030s, aggressors must be presented with the possibility that their goals will be denied or that the immediate costs to pursue them will be prohibitively high. The architecture proposed by this report would achieve that effect with more powerful day-to-day Deterrence Forces tailored by region. Bolstering that immediate deterrent would be the Maneuver Force, which in peacetime would hone its skills in multi-carrier, cross-domain, high-end warfare. These two forces would be comprised of some of the same elements, but packaged and supported differently.

This proposed fleet architecture emphasizes effectiveness over efficiency. Built on new operating concepts the Navy is already pursuing and incorporating a new approach to conventional deterrence, the new architecture offers the prospect of protecting and sustaining America's security and prosperity, as well as that of our friends and allies around the world, in the decades ahead. Deterring great power war demands the readiness to contest and win it—and a fleet that supports this approach.82

Appendix G. Pre-2013 Proposals by Study Groups for Navy Force Structure

Table G-1 shows examples of proposals for Navy force structure made in recent years by various study groups, all of which were published prior to late 2013, when observers began to conclude that the international security environment has undergone a shift from the familiar post-Cold War era of the past 20-25 years, also sometimes known as the unipolar moment (with the United States as the unipolar power), to a new and different strategic situation that features, among other things, renewed great power competition and challenges to elements of the U.S.-led international order that has operated since World War II. For reference purposes, Table G-1 also shows the Navy's 355-ship goal of December 2016.

Table G-1. Pre-2013 Study Group Proposals for Navy Ship Force Structure

Ship type

Navy's 308- ship goal of December 2016

Project on Defense Alternatives (PDA) (November 2012)

Heritage Foundation (April 2011)

Cato Institute (September 2010)a

Independent Panel Assessment of 2010 QDR (July 2010)

Sustainable Defense Task Force (June 2010)

Center for a New American Security (CNAS) (November 2008)

Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) (2008)b

Submarines

SSBN

12

7

14c

6

14

7

14

12

SSGN

0

6-7

4

0

4

4

0

2

SSN

66

42

55

40

55

37

40

41

Aircraft carriers

CVN

12

9

11

8

11

9

8

11

CVE

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

4

Surface combatants

Cruiser

104

72-74

88

22

n/a

85

18

14

Destroyer

 

 

 

65

n/a

 

56

73

Frigate

52

2-7j

28d

14

n/a

0

0

9e

LCS

 

12j

 

4

n/a

25

48

55

SSC

 

j

0

0

n/a

0

40

0f

Amphibious and Maritime Prepositioning Force (Future) (MPF[F]) ships

Amphibious ships

38

>23

37

23

n/a

27

36

33

MPF(F) ships

0

n/a

0

0

n/a

n/a

0

3g

LSD station ships

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

7h

Other: Mine warfare (MIW) ships; Combat Logistics Force (CLF) ships (i.e., at-sea resupply ships), and support ships

MIW

0

14j

14

11

0

0

0

0

CLF ships

32

n/a

33

21

n/a

36

40

31

Support ships

39

n/a

25

27

n/a

 

 

31

TOTAL battle force ships

355

230

309

241

346

230

300

326i

Source: Table prepared by CRS based on the following sources: For Heritage Foundation: A Strong National Defense[:] The Armed Forces America Needs and What They Will Cost, Heritage Foundation, April 5, 2011, pp. 25-26. For Cato Institute: Benjamin H. Friedman and Christopher Preble, Budgetary Savings from Military Restraint, Washington, Cato Institute, September 23, 2010 (Policy Analysis No. 667), pp. 6, 8-10, and additional information provided by Cato Institute to CRS by email on September 22, 2010. For Independent Panel Assessment: Stephen J. Hadley and William J. Perry, co-chairmen, et al., The QDR in Perspective: Meeting America's National Security Needs In the 21st Century, The Final Report of the Quadrennial Defense Review Independent Panel, Washington, 2010, Figure 3-2 on pages 58-59. For Sustainable Defense Task Force: Debt, Deficits, and Defense, A Way Forward[:] Report of the Sustainable Defense Task Force, June 11, 2010, pp. 19-20. For CNAS: Frank Hoffman, From Preponderance to Partnership: American Maritime Power in the 21st Century. Washington, Center for a New American Security, November 2008. p. 19 (Table 2). For CSBA: Robert O. Work, The US Navy[:] Charting a Course for Tomorrow's Fleet. Washington, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2008. p. 81 (Figure 5). For PDA: Carl Conetta, Reasonable Defense, Project on Defense Alternatives, November 14, 2012, 31 pp.

Notes: n/a is not addressed in the report. SSBN is nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine; SSGN is nuclear-powered cruise missile and special operations forces submarine; SSN is nuclear-powered attack submarine; CVN is large nuclear-powered aircraft carrier; CVE is medium-sized aircraft carrier; LCS is Littoral Combat Ship; SSC (an acronym created by CRS for this table) is small surface combatant of 1,000+ tons displacement—a ship similar to late-1990s Streetfighter concept; MPF(F) is Maritime Prepositioning Force (Future) ship; LSD is LSD-41/49 class amphibious ship operating as a station ship for a formation like a Global Fleet Station (GFS); MIW is mine warfare ship; CLF is combat logistics force (i.e., resupply) ship.

a. Figures shown are for the year 2020; for subsequent years, reductions from these figures would be considered.

b. Figures shown are for the year 2028.

c. The report calls for a force of 280 SLBMs, which appears to equate to a force of 14 SSBNs, each with 20 SLBM tubes.

d. The report calls for a force of 28 small surface combatants, and appears to use the term small surface combatants the same way that the Navy does in the 30-year shipbuilding plan—as a way of collectively referring to frigates and LCSs. The small surface combatants (SSCs) called for in the November 2008 CNAS report are separate from and smaller than the LCS.

e. Maritime Security Frigates.

f. Plan includes 28 patrol craft (PCs) of a few hundred tons displacement each, as well as 29 boat detachments and seven riverine squadrons.

g. Plan shows three Mobile Landing Platform (MLP) ships that the Navy currently plans for the MPF(F) squadron, plus 16 existing current-generation maritime prepositioning force (MPF) ships and 17 existing prepositioning ships for Army and other service/agency equipment. Plan also shows 67 other DOD sealift ships.

h. T-LSDs, meaning LSDs operated by the Military Sealift Command (MSC) with a partly civilian crew.

i. The CSBA report shows a total of 488 units by including 162 additional force units that do not count toward the 308-ship goal under the battle force ships counting method that has been used since the early 1980s for public policy discussions of the size of the Navy. These 162 additional force units include 16 existing current-generation maritime prepositioning force (MPF) ships and 17 existing prepositioning ships for Army and other service/agency equipment, 67 other DOD sealift ships, 28 PCs, 29 boat detachments, and certain other small-scale units. The CSBA report proposes a new counting method for naval/maritime forces that includes units such as these in the total count.

j. The report "prescribes ending procurement of the LCS with the 12 already purchased. The Reasonable Defense model foresees a future cohort of 28 to 33 small surface combatants, including a mix of the 12 LCS that have already been procured, 14 Mine Counter Measure (MCM) ships already in the fleet, and small frigates or ocean-going corvettes. As the MCM ships age and leave the fleet, the LCS should assume their role. The would leave a post-MCM requirement for 16 to 21 additional small surface combatants. For this, the Navy needs a simpler, less expensive alternative to the LCS."

Appendix H. Industrial Base Ability for Taking on Additional Shipbuilding Work

This appendix presents additional background information on the ability of the industrial base to take on the additional shipbuilding work associated with achieving and maintaining the Navy's 355-ship force-level goal.

A January 13, 2017, press report states:

The Navy's production lines are hot and the work to prepare them for the possibility of building out a much larger fleet would be manageable, the service's head of acquisition said Thursday.

From a logistics perspective, building the fleet from its current 274 ships to 355, as recommended in the Navy's newest force structure assessment in December, would be straightforward, Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Research, Development and Acquisition Sean Stackley told reporters at the Surface Navy Association's annual symposium.

"By virtue of maintaining these hot production lines, frankly, over the last eight years, our facilities are in pretty good shape," Stackley said. "In fact, if you talked to industry, they would say we're underutilizing the facilities that we have."

The areas where the Navy would likely have to adjust "tooling" to answer demand for a larger fleet would likely be in Virginia-class attack submarines and large surface combatants, the DDG-51 guided missile destroyers — two ship classes likely to surge if the Navy gets funding to build to 355 ships, he said.

"Industry's going to have to go out and procure special tooling associated with going from current production rates to a higher rate, but I would say that's easily done," he said.

Another key, Stackley said, is maintaining skilled workers — both the builders in the yards and the critical supply-chain vendors who provide major equipment needed for ship construction. And, he suggested, it would help to avoid budget cuts and other events that would force workforce layoffs.

"We're already prepared to ramp up," he said. "In certain cases, that means not laying off the skilled workforce we want to retain."83

A January 17, 2017, press report states:

Building stable designs with active production lines is central to the Navy's plan to grow to 355 ships. "if you look at the 355-ship number, and you study the ship classes (desired), the big surge is in attack submarines and large surface combatants, which today are DDG-51 (destroyers)," the Assistant Secretary of the Navy, Sean Stackley, told reporters at last week's Surface Navy Association conference. Those programs have proven themselves reliable performers both at sea and in the shipyards.

From today's fleet of 274 ships, "we're on an irreversible path to 308 by 2021. Those ships are already in construction," said Stackley. "To go from there to 355, virtually all those ships are currently in production, with some exceptions: Ohio Replacement, (we) just got done the Milestone B there (to move from R&D into detailed design); and then upgrades to existing platforms. So we have hot production lines that will take us to that 355-ship Navy."84

A January 24, 2017, press report states:

Navy officials say a recently determined plan to increase its fleet size by adding more new submarines, carriers and destroyers is "executable" and that early conceptual work toward this end is already underway....

Although various benchmarks will need to be reached in order for this new plan to come to fruition, such as Congressional budget allocations, Navy officials do tell Scout Warrior that the service is already working—at least in concept—on plans to vastly enlarge the fleet. Findings from this study are expected to inform an upcoming 2018 Navy Shipbuilding Plan, service officials said.85

A January 12, 2017, press report states:

Brian Cuccias, president of Ingalls Shipbuilding [a shipyard owned by Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) that builds Navy destroyers and amphibious ships as well as Coast Guard cutters], said Ingalls, which is currently building 10 ships for four Navy and Coast Guard programs at its 800-acre facility in Pascagoula, Miss., could build more because it is using only 70 to 75 percent of its capacity.86

A March 2017 press report states:

As the Navy calls for a larger fleet, shipbuilders are looking toward new contracts and ramping up their yards to full capacity....

The Navy is confident that U.S. shipbuilders will be able to meet an increased demand, said Ray Mabus, then-secretary of the Navy, during a speech at the Surface Navy Association's annual conference in Arlington, Virginia.

They have the capacity to "get there because of the ships we are building today," Mabus said. "I don't think we could have seven years ago."

Shipbuilders around the United States have "hot" production lines and are manufacturing vessels on multi-year or block buy contracts, he added. The yards have made investments in infrastructure and in the training of their workers.

"We now have the basis ... [to] get to that much larger fleet," he said....

Shipbuilders have said they are prepared for more work.

At Ingalls Shipbuilding—a subsidiary of Huntington Ingalls Industries—10 ships are under construction at its Pascagoula, Mississippi, yard, but it is under capacity, said Brian Cuccias, the company's president.

The shipbuilder is currently constructing five guided-missile destroyers, the latest San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock ship, and two national security cutters for the Coast Guard.

"Ingalls is a very successful production line right now, but it has the ability to actually produce a lot more in the future," he said during a briefing with reporters in January.

The company's facility is currently operating at 75 percent capacity, he noted....

Austal USA—the builder of the Independence-variant of the littoral combat ship and the expeditionary fast transport vessel—is also ready to increase its capacity should the Navy require it, said Craig Perciavalle, the company's president.

The latest discussions are "certainly something that a shipbuilder wants to hear," he said. "We do have the capability of increasing throughput if the need and demand were to arise, and then we also have the ability with the present workforce and facility to meet a different mix that could arise as well."

Austal could build fewer expeditionary fast transport vessels and more littoral combat ships, or vice versa, he added.

"The key thing for us is to keep the manufacturing lines hot and really leverage the momentum that we've gained on both of the programs," he said.

The company—which has a 164-acre yard in Mobile, Alabama—is focused on the extension of the LCS and expeditionary fast transport ship program, but Perciavalle noted that it could look into manufacturing other types of vessels.

"We do have excess capacity to even build smaller vessels … if that opportunity were to arise and we're pursuing that," he said.

Bryan Clark, a naval analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, said shipbuilders are on average running between 70 and 80 percent capacity. While they may be ready to meet an increased demand for ships, it would take time to ramp up their workforces.

However, the bigger challenge is the supplier industrial base, he said.

"Shipyards may be able to build ships but the supplier base that builds the pumps … and the radars and the radios and all those other things, they don't necessarily have that ability to ramp up," he said. "You would need to put some money into building up their capacity."

That has to happen now, he added.

Rear Adm. William Gallinis, program manager for program executive office ships, said what the Navy must be "mindful of is probably our vendor base that support the shipyards."

Smaller companies that supply power electronics and switchboards could be challenged, he said.

"Do we need to re-sequence some of the funding to provide some of the facility improvements for some of the vendors that may be challenged? My sense is that the industrial base will size to the demand signal. We just need to be mindful of how we transition to that increased demand signal," he said.

The acquisition workforce may also see an increased amount of stress, Gallinis noted. "It takes a fair amount of experience and training to get a good contracting officer to the point to be [able to] manage contracts or procure contracts."

"But I don't see anything that is insurmountable," he added.87

At a May 24, 2017, hearing before the Seapower subcommittee of the Senate Armed Services Committee on the industrial-base aspects of the Navy's 355-ship plan, John P. Casey, executive vice president–marine systems, General Dynamics Corporation (one of the country's two principal builders of Navy ships) stated:

It is our belief that the Nation's shipbuilding industrial base can scale-up hot production lines for existing ships and mobilize additional resources to accomplish the significant challenge of achieving the 355-ship Navy as quickly as possible....

Supporting a plan to achieve a 355-ship Navy will be the most challenging for the nuclear submarine enterprise. Much of the shipyard and industrial base capacity was eliminated following the steep drop-off in submarine production that occurred with the cancellation of the Seawolf Program in 1992. The entire submarine industrial base at all levels of the supply chain will likely need to recapitalize some portion of its facilities, workforce, and supply chain just to support the current plan to build the Columbia Class SSBN program, while concurrently building Virginia Class SSNs. Additional SSN procurement will require industry to expand its plans and associated investment beyond the level today....

Shipyard labor resources include the skilled trades needed to fabricate, build and outfit major modules, perform assembly, test and launch of submarines, and associated support organizations that include planning, material procurement, inspection, quality assurance, and ship certification. Since there is no commercial equivalency for Naval nuclear submarine shipbuilding, these trade resources cannot be easily acquired in large numbers from other industries. Rather, these shipyard resources must be acquired and developed over time to ensure the unique knowledge and know-how associated with nuclear submarine shipbuilding is passed on to the next generation of shipbuilders. The mechanisms of knowledge transfer require sufficient lead time to create the proficient, skilled craftsmen in each key trade including welding, electrical, machining, shipfitting, pipe welding, painting, and carpentry, which are among the largest trades that would need to grow to support increased demand. These trades will need to be hired in the numbers required to support the increased workload. Both shipyards have scalable processes in place to acquire, train, and develop the skilled workforce they need to build nuclear ships. These processes and associated training facilities need to be expanded to support the increased demand. As with the shipyards, the same limiting factors associated with facilities, workforce, and supply chain also limit the submarine unique first tier suppliers and sub-tiers in the industrial base for which there is no commercial equivalency....

The supply base is the third resource that will need to be expanded to meet the increased demand over the next 20 years. During the OHIO, 688 and SEAWOLF construction programs, there were over 17,000 suppliers supporting submarine construction programs. That resource base was "rationalized" during submarine low rate production over the last 20 years. The current submarine industrial base reflects about 5,000 suppliers, of which about 3,000 are currently active (i.e., orders placed within the last 5 years), 80% of which are single or sole source (based on $). It will take roughly 20 years to build the 12 Columbia Class submarines that starts construction in FY21. The shipyards are expanding strategic sourcing of appropriate non-core products (e.g., decks, tanks, etc.) in order to focus on core work at each shipyard facility (e.g., module outfitting and assembly). Strategic sourcing will move demand into the supply base where capacity may exist or where it can be developed more easily. This approach could offer the potential for cost savings by competition or shifting work to lower cost work centers throughout the country. Each shipyard has a process to assess their current supply base capacity and capability and to determine where it would be most advantageous to perform work in the supply base....

Achieving the increased rate of production and reducing the cost of submarines will require the Shipbuilders to rely on the supply base for more non-core products such as structural fabrication, sheet metal, machining, electrical, and standard parts. The supply base must be made ready to execute work with submarine-specific requirements at a rate and volume that they are not currently prepared to perform. Preparing the supply base to execute increased demand requires early non-recurring funding to support cross-program construction readiness and EOQ funding to procure material in a manner that does not hold up existing ship construction schedules should problems arise in supplier qualification programs. This requires longer lead times (estimates of three years to create a new qualified, critical supplier) than the current funding profile supports....

We need to rely on market principles to allow suppliers, the shipyards and GFE material providers to sort through the complicated demand equation across the multiple ship programs. Supplier development funding previously mentioned would support non-recurring efforts which are needed to place increased orders for material in multiple market spaces. Examples would include valves, build-to-print fabrication work, commodities, specialty material, engineering components, etc. We are engaging our marine industry associations to help foster innovative approaches that could reduce costs and gain efficiency for this increased volume....

Supporting the 355-ship Navy will require Industry to add capability and capacity across the entire Navy Shipbuilding value chain. Industry will need to make investment decisions for additional capital spend starting now in order to meet a step change in demand that would begin in FY19 or FY20. For the submarine enterprise, the step change was already envisioned and investment plans that embraced a growth trajectory were already being formulated. Increasing demand by adding additional submarines will require scaling facility and workforce development plans to operate at a higher rate of production. The nuclear shipyards would also look to increase material procurement proportionally to the increased demand. In some cases, the shipyard facilities may be constrained with existing capacity and may look to source additional work in the supply base where capacity exists or where there are competitive business advantages to be realized. Creating additional capacity in the supply base will require non-recurring investment in supplier qualification, facilities, capital equipment and workforce training and development.

Industry is more likely to increase investment in new capability and capacity if there is certainty that the Navy will proceed with a stable shipbuilding plan. Positive signals of commitment from the Government must go beyond a published 30-year Navy Shipbuilding Plan and line items in the Future Years Defense Plan (FYDP) and should include:

● Multi-year contracting for Block procurement which provides stability in the industrial base and encourages investment in facilities and workforce development

● Funding for supplier development to support training, qualification, and facilitization efforts – Electric Boat and Newport News have recommended to the Navy funding of $400M over a 3-year period starting in 2018 to support supplier development for the Submarine Industrial Base as part of an Integrated Enterprise Plan Extended Enterprise initiative

● Acceleration of Advance Procurement and/or Economic Order Quantities (EOQ) procurement from FY19 to FY18 for Virginia Block V

● Government incentives for construction readiness and facilities / special tooling for shipyard and supplier facilities, which help cash flow capital investment ahead of construction contract awards

● Procurement of additional production back-up (PBU) material to help ensure a ready supply of material to mitigate construction schedule risk....

So far, this testimony has focused on the Submarine Industrial Base, but the General Dynamics Marine Systems portfolio also includes surface ship construction. Unlike Electric Boat, Bath Iron Works and NASSCO are able to support increased demand without a significant increase in resources.....

Bath Iron Works is well positioned to support the Administration's announced goal of increasing the size of the Navy fleet to 355 ships. For BIW that would mean increasing the total current procurement rate of two DDG 51s per year to as many as four DDGs per year, allocated equally between BIW and HII. This is the same rate that the surface combatant industrial base sustained over the first decade of full rate production of the DDG 51 Class (1989-1999)....

No significant capital investment in new facilities is required to accommodate delivering two DDGs per year. However, additional funding will be required to train future shipbuilders and maintain equipment. Current hiring and training processes support the projected need, and have proven to be successful in the recent past. BIW has invested significantly in its training programs since 2014 with the restart of the DDG 51 program and given these investments and the current market in Maine, there is little concern of meeting the increase in resources required under the projected plans.

A predictable and sustainable Navy workload is essential to justify expanding hiring/training programs. BIW would need the Navy's commitment that the Navy's plan will not change before it would proceed with additional hiring and training to support increased production.

BIW's supply chain is prepared to support a procurement rate increase of up to four DDG 51s per year for the DDG 51 Program. BIW has long-term purchasing agreements in place for all major equipment and material for the DDG 51 Program. These agreements provide for material lead time and pricing, and are not constrained by the number of ships ordered in a year. BIW confirmed with all of its critical suppliers that they can support this increased procurement rate....

The Navy's Force Structure Assessment calls for three additional ESBs. Additionally, NASSCO has been asked by the Navy and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to evaluate its ability to increase the production rate of T-AOs to two ships per year. NASSCO has the capacity to build three more ESBs at a rate of one ship per year while building two T-AOs per year. The most cost effective funding profile requires funding ESB 6 in FY18 and the following ships in subsequent fiscal years to avoid increased cost resulting from a break in the production line. The most cost effective funding profile to enable a production rate of two T-AO ships per year requires funding an additional long lead time equipment set beginning in FY19 and an additional ship each year beginning in FY20.

NASSCO must now reduce its employment levels due to completion of a series of commercial programs which resulted in the delivery of six ships in 2016. The proposed increase in Navy shipbuilding stabilizes NASSCO's workload and workforce to levels that were readily demonstrated over the last several years.

Some moderate investment in the NASSCO shipyard will be needed to reach this level of production. The recent CBO report on the costs of building a 355-ship Navy accurately summarized NASSCO's ability to reach the above production rate stating, "building more … combat logistics and support ships would be the least problematic for the shipyards."88

At the same hearing, Brian Cuccias, president, Ingalls Shipbuilding, Huntington Ingalls Industries (the country's other principal builder of Navy ships) stated:

Qualifying to be a supplier is a difficult process. Depending on the commodity, it may take up to 36 months. That is a big burden on some of these small businesses. This is why creating sufficient volume and exercising early contractual authorization and advance procurement funding is necessary to grow the supplier base, and not just for traditional long-lead time components; that effort needs to expand to critical components and commodities that today are controlling the build rate of submarines and carriers alike. Many of our suppliers are small businesses and can only make decisions to invest in people, plant and tooling when they are awarded a purchase order. We need to consider how we can make commitments to suppliers early enough to ensure material readiness and availability when construction schedules demand it.

With questions about the industry's ability to support an increase in shipbuilding, both Newport News and Ingalls have undertaken an extensive inventory of our suppliers and assessed their ability to ramp up their capacity. We have engaged many of our key suppliers to assess their ability to respond to an increase in production.

The fortunes of related industries also impact our suppliers, and an increase in demand from the oil and gas industry may stretch our supply base. Although some low to moderate risk remains, I am convinced that our suppliers will be able to meet the forecasted Navy demand....

I strongly believe that the fastest results can come from leveraging successful platforms on current hot production lines. We commend the Navy's decision in 2014 to use the existing LPD 17 hull form for the LX(R), which will replace the LSD-class amphibious dock landing ships scheduled to retire in the coming years. However, we also recommend that the concept of commonality be taken even further to best optimize efficiency, affordability and capability. Specifically, rather than continuing with a new design for LX(R) within the "walls" of the LPD hull, we can leverage our hot production line and supply chain and offer the Navy a variant of the existing LPD design that satisfies the aggressive cost targets of the LX(R) program while delivering more capability and survivability to the fleet at a significantly faster pace than the current program. As much as 10-15 percent material savings can be realized across the LX(R) program by purchasing respective blocks of at least five ships each under a multi-year procurement (MYP) approach. In the aggregate, continuing production with LPD 30 in FY18, coupled with successive MYP contracts for the balance of ships, may yield savings greater than $1 billion across an 11-ship LX(R) program. Additionally, we can deliver five LX(R)s to the Navy and Marine Corps in the same timeframe that the current plan would deliver two, helping to reduce the shortfall in amphibious warships against the stated force requirement of 38 ships.

Multi-ship procurements, whether a formal MYP or a block-buy, are a proven way to reduce the price of ships. The Navy took advantage of these tools on both Virginia-class submarines and Arleigh Burke-class destroyers. In addition to the LX(R) program mentioned above, expanding multi-ship procurements to other ship classes makes sense....

The most efficient approach to lower the cost of the Ford class and meet the goal of an increased CVN fleet size is also to employ a multi-ship procurement strategy and construct these ships at three-year intervals. This approach would maximize the material procurement savings benefit through economic order quantities procurement and provide labor efficiencies to enable rapid acquisition of a 12-ship CVN fleet. This three-ship approach would save at least $1.5 billion, not including additional savings that could be achieved from government-furnished equipment. As part of its Integrated Enterprise Plan, we commend the Navy's efforts to explore the prospect of material economic order quantity purchasing across carrier and submarine programs.89

At the same hearing, Matthew O. Paxton, president, Shipbuilders Council of America (SCA)—a trade association representing shipbuilders, suppliers, and associated firms—stated:

To increase the Navy's Fleet to 355 ships, a substantial and sustained investment is required in both procurement and readiness. However, let me be clear: building and sustaining the larger required Fleet is achievable and our industry stands ready to help achieve that important national security objective.

To meet the demand for increased vessel construction while sustaining the vessels we currently have will require U.S. shipyards to expand their work forces and improve their infrastructure in varying degrees depending on ship type and ship mix – a requirement our Nation's shipyards are eager to meet. But first, in order to build these ships in as timely and affordable manner as possible, stable and robust funding is necessary to sustain those industrial capabilities which support Navy shipbuilding and ship maintenance and modernization....

Beyond providing for the building of a 355-ship Navy, there must also be provision to fund the "tail," the maintenance of the current and new ships entering the fleet. Target fleet size cannot be reached if existing ships are not maintained to their full service lives, while building those new ships. Maintenance has been deferred in the last few years because of across-the-board budget cuts....

The domestic shipyard industry certainly has the capability and know-how to build and maintain a 355-ship Navy. The Maritime Administration determined in a recent study on the Economic Benefits of the U.S. Shipyard Industry that there are nearly 110,000 skilled men and women in the Nation's private shipyards building, repairing and maintaining America's military and commercial fleets.1 The report found the U.S. shipbuilding industry supports nearly 400,000 jobs across the country and generates $25.1 billion in income and $37.3 billion worth of goods and services each year. In fact, the MARAD report found that the shipyard industry creates direct and induced employment in every State and Congressional District and each job in the private shipbuilding and repairing industry supports another 2.6 jobs nationally.

This data confirms the significant economic impact of this manufacturing sector, but also that the skilled workforce and industrial base exists domestically to build these ships. Long-term, there needs to be a workforce expansion and some shipyards will need to reconfigure or expand production lines. This can and will be done as required to meet the need if adequate, stable budgets and procurement plans are established and sustained for the long-term. Funding predictability and sustainability will allow industry to invest in facilities and more effectively grow its skilled workforce. The development of that critical workforce will take time and a concerted effort in a partnership between industry and the federal government.

U.S. shipyards pride themselves on implementing state of the art training and apprenticeship programs to develop skilled men and women that can cut, weld, and bend steel and aluminum and who can design, build and maintain the best Navy in the world. However, the shipbuilding industry, like so many other manufacturing sectors, faces an aging workforce. Attracting and retaining the next generation shipyard worker for an industry career is critical. Working together with the Navy, and local and state resources, our association is committed to building a robust training and development pipeline for skilled shipyard workers. In addition to repealing sequestration and stabilizing funding the continued development of a skilled workforce also needs to be included in our national maritime strategy....

In conclusion, the U.S. shipyard industry is certainly up to the task of building a 355-ship Navy and has the expertise, the capability, the critical capacity and the unmatched skilled workforce to build these national assets. Meeting the Navy's goal of a 355-ship fleet and securing America's naval dominance for the decades ahead will require sustained investment by Congress and Navy's partnership with a defense industrial base that can further attract and retain a highly-skilled workforce with critical skill sets. Again, I would like to thank this Subcommittee for inviting me to testify alongside such distinguished witnesses. As a representative of our nation's private shipyards, I can say, with confidence and certainty, that our domestic shipyards and skilled workers are ready, willing and able to build and maintain the Navy's 355-ship Fleet.90

Appendix I. 2014 Journal Article on Fleet Architecture

As additional information on the question of future fleet architecture, one observer—a person who for many years was the Navy's lead force-structure planner—stated the following in 2014 regarding the Navy's approach to fleet design:

It is time to rethink how we will design the future Fleet in a way that rebalances affordability, platform capability, and deployment processes. We must build it as a whole instead of continuing to "let it happen" one platform requirements decision at a time....

Today the Navy operates about 50 different types of ships and aircraft with individual design-service lives of 20 to 50 years. On average, about two classes of ship or aircraft annually come up for a decision on replacement at the end of their service lives. Each of these decisions, a multi-year joint bureaucratic process with dozens of participating organizations, is made individually. Typically, as a starting point, the new platform must do everything the old one did, except in the more challenging threat environment of the future. All of the decision-making organizations generally advocate for the next-generation platform to have the desired capabilities unmet by the old one—particularly since any additional unit cost is not their bill. It is no surprise that this process leads to steadily increasing platform and overall Fleet cost....

The future Fleet is being designed ad hoc, one platform at a time, and we cannot afford this. How can we change the trend toward an ever-smaller Fleet of ever-better platforms while maintaining the capability superiority needed to execute our missions? It will take a top-down design to provide a structure in which individual platform requirements can be shaped and disciplined despite all of the pressures. We will have to consider distributing capabilities to a greater extent across a force that is securely networked, at least within line of sight, rather than putting as many as possible on each individual platform and continuing to drive up its size and cost.

We will have to consider separating weapon magazines from the sensors that direct the weapons rather than putting both on the same platform. Another option is increasing reliance on deep-magazine directed energy systems, and on force-wide coordinated soft-kill and counter-targeting techniques, rather than on engaging each threat with ever-larger and more expensive kinetic weapons. We can also think about increasing reliance on penetrating high-threat areas with longer-range weapons or with preprogrammed unmanned systems rather than with manned platforms. Few of these options would rise to the top in the requirements decision-making process for any individual platform. They only start to make sense when considered and competed at a Fleet-wide level.

Developing an overall fleet design to structure and discipline individual platform requirements is no small task. Simply constraining platform cost without dealing with how capabilities might be delivered differently is not sufficient. This is not a once-and-done process, as changes in threat and in our own technology options will never stop. But neither can it be a process that changes the design in some fundamental way every year or two—it will have to influence platform requirements for a long period of time to affect a significant number of new platform designs.

We cannot afford to retire legacy platforms prematurely simply because they are not optimized within our new Fleet design, which will take time to implement and have to be done incrementally. Real and fundamental change in the roles, missions, and interdependencies among platform types, and in the balance between manned and unmanned and between platform and payload, is an inevitable outcome of a Fleet design process. That is the point. Change is hard, and it will have to be authorized and directed by the Navy's leadership or risk not happening.

A number of ideas for a new Fleet design have been offered recently from outside the Navy's decision-making mainstream. However, all have had significant flaws, so they have not received serious consideration. They have assumed things such as beyond line-of-sight networking that has no survivable future in the face of adversary counter-space capability; autonomy of unmanned vehicles in executing lethal missions that is beyond the projected capability of software and U.S. rules of engagement to support; and the use of platforms too small to be capable of global deployment and sustained sea-based operations, which is how the U.S. Navy must deliver global naval power. The future Fleet design must be grounded in technical and operational reality, and it has to come from inside the Navy system....

Developing a rich list of operationally-realistic options supported by rigorous analysis of cost and feasibility is foundational. It could include:

• The use of a common large aviation-ship hull for Navy sea-control/power-projection air wings and for Marine Corps vertical-raid/assault-air wings, reconfigurable between the two missions between the deployments;

• Surface combatants with smaller vertical-launch magazines that can reload at sea from logistic ships or remotely fire weapons carried in supplementary magazines on logistic ships;

• Separate classes of surface combatants optimized for air defense or antisubmarine warfare within a common hull type that can self-defend in peacetime but aggregate to fight offensively in wartime;

• Tactical-combat aircraft that are optimized for endurance and carriage of long-range weapons rather than for penetrating sophisticated defenses carrying short-range weapons;

• Large shore-launched unmanned undersea vehicles that take the place of submarines for preprogrammed missions such as covert surveillance or mine-laying;

• Use of a common hull type for all of the large non-combatant ship missions such as command ships, tenders, hospital ships, ground vehicle delivery, and logistics; and

• Elimination of support models that are based on wartime reliance on reach-back access to unclassified cyber networks connected by vulnerable communications satellites or to an indefensible global internet....

The Navy's long-term force structure requirement is a 306-ship Fleet of the currently-planned designs, of which about 120 (or 40 percent of the force) would be deployed day-to-day. It would also be able to surge an additional 75 ships (another 25 percent) within two months to meet warfighting capacity requirements. In other words, about 65 percent is employed or rapidly employable.

This sounds good, but the reality is that 30 of these 120 deployed ships would be permanently homeported overseas; 26 would be LCSs that use the rotation of their small military crews to keep 50 percent of that class forward deployed; and 40 would be Military Sealift Command support ships that use rotational civilian mariner crewing to keep the ships deployed 75 percent of the time. The remaining 25 of the forward-deployed force will be large and complex multibillion dollar warships with all-military crews, supported out of a rotation base of 140 such ships.

In other words, we plan to buy and operate five of our most expensive ships to keep one deployed. This is not an efficient way to operate. In times of reduced funding our design must address ways to meet our deployment goals with a smaller rotation base while preserving wartime surge capacity.

Many studies and trials have been done over the years on options for reducing the total number of ships needed to sustain the Navy's robust peacetime forward-deployed posture. Increasing forward homeporting in other nations always comes up as the first choice. While it is a good one, few countries beyond those that currently support this (Japan, Spain, Italy, and Bahrain) are willing to tolerate a permanent new U.S. shore footprint. Building new shore-support infrastructure in foreign countries to back this results in a large bill for construction jobs outside the United States, which Congress normally finds unappetizing.

Using rotational crews to keep ships forward for extended periods without long deployments for their sailors is an efficient option that works for ships with small crews like LCSs, legacy mine-warfare ships, or Military Sealift Command support ships. Experiments in which this has been done with military crews on large complex warships have not turned out well. This was due both to the logistics of moving large crews overseas for turnovers and the difficulty of maintaining exact configuration commonality within ships of a class so that a crew arriving on a ship overseas has trained before deployment on an identical ship (or simulator) at home. Conversions of ships from military manning to Military Sealift Command civilian mariner crews that routinely rotate individual crewmembers to sustain ships forward are limited by the law of war concerning what military actions civilians can perform, and there are few legal options left for further expansion of this approach.

What is left in the force-generation model of our current Fleet is a force of our most complex warships—aircraft carriers, submarines, destroyers, and amphibious ships—operating with permanently-assigned military crews in the "Fleet Readiness Program" cycle of maintain-train-deploy with a deployed output of one in five. Future designs must address this model and find ways to get more deployed time out of these expensive ships and crews—without exceeding the current objective of having military crewmembers spend no more than 50 percent of their time away from homeport over a complete multi-year operating cycle. The current limiting factor is the period required to train the crew as a team before deployment following the inactivity and crew turnover of the shipyard maintenance period.

Naval aviation is steadily moving toward the increased use of high-fidelity single and multi-aircraft simulation as a means of developing and sustaining operational proficiency with reduced use of expensive live flying. These simulators are funded as part of the overall fielding plan for the aircraft and were also built for the ballistic-missile submarine force to support its Blue-Gold crew manning concept. There is no equivalent model or set of off-ship simulators for major sections of the crews of conventional surface warships (other than the LCS) for nuclear-aircraft carriers or for attack submarines. A Fleet design that bought such simulation capability as part of its ship production programs—the way that aircraft programs do—would have significant potential for improving operational output by reducing the time to train for deployment after maintenance periods.

Today's Fleet design is the product of many separate and disconnected decisions about the required capabilities of 50 different types of ships and aircraft. While not ineffective, it is definitely too expensive. The budget constraints facing the Navy for the next 20 years are not matched by a projected reduction in the quantity or capability of forces that must be delivered forward every day or surged forward in wartime.

The only way to meet these demands within available resources is to develop a design that provides a structure within which the capabilities of future platforms can be shaped to meet the Fleet's missions efficiently as an overall force. Doing this will require a systems-level approach to defining what it must be able to do, and will mean abandoning some cherished traditions of what each type of platform should do. The alternative is a Navy no longer large or capable enough to do the nation's business.91

Appendix J. Potential Impact on Size and Capability of Navy of Limiting DOD Spending to BCA Caps Through FY2021

This appendix presents additional details on the potential impact on the size and capability of the Navy of limiting DOD spending to the BCA caps through FY2021.

January 2015 Navy Testimony

In testimony on this issue to the Senate Armed Services Committee on January 28, 2015, then-Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Jonathan Greenert stated:

A return to sequestration in FY 2016 would necessitate a revisit and revision of the DSG [Defense Strategic Guidance document of January 2012]. Required cuts will force us to further delay critical warfighting capabilities, reduce readiness of forces needed for contingency response, forego or stretch procurement of ships and submarines, and further downsize weapons capability. We will be unable to mitigate the shortfalls like we did in FY2013 [in response to the sequester of March 1, 2013] because [unobligated] prior-year investment balances [which were included in the funds subject to the sequester] were depleted under [the] FY 2013 sequester [of March 1, 2013].

The revised discretionary caps imposed by sequestration would be a reduction of about $10 billion in our FY 2016 budget alone, as compared to PB-2015. From FY 2016-2020, the reduction would amount to approximately $36 billion. If forced to budget at this level, it would reduce every appropriation, inducing deep cuts to Navy Operation and Maintenance (O&M), investment, and modernization accounts. The Research, Development, Test and Evaluation (RDT&E) accounts would likely experience a significant decline across the FYDP, severely curtailing the Navy's ability to develop new technologies and asymmetric capabilities.

As I testified to this committee in November 2013, any scenario to address the fiscal constraints of the revised discretionary caps must include sufficient readiness, capability and manpower to complement the force structure capacity of ships and aircraft. This balance would need to be maintained to ensure each unit will be effective, even if the overall fleet is not able to execute the DSG. There are many ways to balance between force structure, readiness, capability, and manpower, but none that Navy has calculated that enable us to confidently execute the current defense strategy within dictated budget constraints.

As detailed in the Department of Defense's April 2014 report, "Estimated Impacts of Sequestration-Level Funding," one potential fiscal and programmatic scenario would result in a Navy of 2020 that would be unable to execute two of the ten DSG missions due to the compounding effects of sequestration on top of pre-existing FY 2013, 2014, and 2015 resource constraints. Specifically, the cuts would render us unable to sufficiently Project Power Despite Anti-Access/Area Denial Challenges and unable to Deter and Defeat Aggression. In addition, we would be forced to accept higher risk in five other DSG missions: Counter Terrorism and Irregular Warfare; Defend the Homeland and Provide Support to Civil Authorities; Provide a Stabilizing Presence; Conduct Stability and Counterinsurgency Operations; and Conduct Humanitarian, Disaster Relief, and Other Operations. (Table 2 provides more detail on mission risks.) In short, a return to sequestration in FY 2016 will require a revision of our defense strategy.

Critical assumptions I have used to base my assessments and calculate risk:

 Navy must maintain a credible, modern, and survivable sea-based strategic deterrent

 Navy must man its units

 Units that deploy must be ready

 People must be given adequate training and support services

 Readiness for deployed forces is a higher priority than contingency response forces

 Capability must be protected, even at the expense of some capacity

 Modernized and asymmetric capabilities (advanced weapons, cyber, electronic warfare) are essential to projecting power against evolving, sophisticated adversaries

 The maritime industrial base is fragile—damage can be long-lasting, hard to reverse

The primary benchmarks I use to gauge Navy capability and capacity are DoD Global Force Management Allocation Plan presence requirements, Combatant Commander Operation and Contingency Plans, and Defense Planning Guidance Scenarios. Navy's ability to execute DSG missions is assessed based on capabilities and capacity resident in the force in 2020.

The following section describes specific sequestration impacts to presence and readiness, force structure investments, and personnel under this fiscal and programmatic scenario:

Presence and Readiness

A return to sequestration would reduce our ability to deploy forces on the timeline required by Global Combatant Commands in the event of a contingency. Of the Navy's current battle force, we maintain roughly 100 ships forward deployed, or 1/3 of our entire Navy. Included among the 100 ships are two CSG and two ARG forward at all times. CSGs and ARGs deliver a significant portion of our striking power, and we are committed to keeping, on average, three additional CSGs and three additional ARGs in a contingency response status, ready to deploy within 30 days to meet operation plans (OPLANs). However, if sequestered, we will prioritize the readiness of forces forward deployed at the expense of those in a contingency response status. We cannot do both. We will only be able to provide a response force of one CSG and one ARG. Our current OPLANs require a significantly more ready force than this reduced surge capacity could provide, because they are predicated on our ability to respond rapidly. Less contingency response capacity can mean higher casualties as wars are prolonged by the slow arrival of naval forces into a combat zone. Without the ability to respond rapidly enough, our forces could arrive too late to affect the outcome of a fight.

Our PB-2015 base budget funded ship and aviation depot maintenance to about 80 percent of the requirement in FY 2016-2019. This is insufficient in maintaining the Fleet and has forced us to rely upon Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) funding to address the shortfall. Sequestration would further aggravate existing Navy backlogs. The impacts of these growing backlogs may not be immediately apparent, but will result in greater funding needs in the future to make up for the shortfalls each year and potentially more material casualty reports (CASREPs), impacting operations. For aviation depot maintenance, the growing backlog will result in more aircraft awaiting maintenance and fewer operational aircraft on the flight line, which would create untenable scenarios in which squadrons would only get their full complement of aircraft just prior to deployment. The situation will lead to less proficient aircrews, decreased combat effectiveness of naval air forces, and increased potential for flight and ground mishaps.

Critical to mission success, our shore infrastructure provides the platforms from which our Sailors train and prepare. However, due the shortfalls over the last three years, we have been compelled to reduce funding in shore readiness since FY 2013 to preserve the operational readiness of our fleet. As a result, many of our shore facilities are degrading. At sequestration levels, this risk will be exacerbated and the condition of our shore infrastructure, including piers, runways, and mission-critical facilities, will further erode. This situation may lead to structural damage to our ships while pierside, aircraft damage from foreign object ingestion on deteriorated runways, and degraded communications within command centers. We run a greater risk of mishaps, serious injury, or health hazards to personnel.

Force Structure Investments

We must ensure that the Navy has the required capabilities to be effective, even if we cannot afford them in sufficient capacity to meet the DSG. The military requirements laid out in the DSG are benchmarked to the year 2020, but I am responsible for building and maintaining capabilities now for the Navy of the future. While sequestration causes significant near-term impacts, it would also create serious problems that would manifest themselves after 2020 and would be difficult to recover from.

In the near term, the magnitude of the sequester cuts would compel us to consider reducing major maritime and air acquisition programs; delaying asymmetric capabilities such as advanced jammers, sensors, and weapons; further reducing weapons procurement of missiles, torpedoes, and bombs; and further deferring shore infrastructure maintenance and upgrades. Because of its irreversibility, force structure cuts represent options of last resort for the Navy. We would look elsewhere to absorb sequestration shortfalls to the greatest extent possible.

Disruptions in naval ship design and construction plans are significant because of the long-lead time, specialized skills, and extent of integration needed to build military ships. Because ship construction can span up to nine years, program procurement cancelled in FY 2016 will not be felt by the Combatant Commanders until several years later when the size of the battle force begins to shrink as those ships are not delivered to the fleet at the planned time. Likewise, cancelled procurement in FY 2016 will likely cause some suppliers and vendors of our shipbuilding industrial base to close their businesses. This skilled, experienced and innovative workforce cannot be easily replaced and it could take years to recover from layoffs and shutdowns; and even longer if critical infrastructure is lost. Stability and predictability are critical to the health and sustainment of this vital sector of our Nation's industrial capacity.

Personnel

In FY 2013 and 2014, the President exempted all military personnel accounts from sequestration out of national interest to safeguard the resources necessary to compensate the men and women serving to defend our Nation and to maintain the force levels required for national security. It was recognized that this action triggered a higher reduction in non-military personnel accounts.

If the President again exempts military personnel accounts from sequestration in FY 2016, then personnel compensation would continue to be protected. Overall, the Navy would protect personnel programs to the extent possible in order to retain the best people. As I testified in March 2014, quality of life is a critical component of the quality of service that we provide to our Sailors. Our Sailors are our most important asset and we must invest appropriately to keep a high caliber all-volunteer force. We will continue to fund Sailor support, family readiness, and education programs. While there may be some reductions to these programs if sequestered in FY 2016, I anticipate the reductions to be relatively small. However, as before, this would necessitate higher reductions to the other Navy accounts.

Conclusion

Navy is still recovering from the FY 2013 sequestration in terms of maintenance, training, and deployment lengths. Only 1/3 of Navy contingency response forces are ready to deploy within the required 30 days. With stable and consistent budgets, recovery is possible in 2018. However, if sequestered, we will not recover within this FYDP.

For the last three years, the Navy has been operating under reduced top-lines and significant shortfalls: $9 billion in FY 2013, $5 billion in FY 2014 and $11 billion in FY 2015, for a total shortfall of about $25 billion less than the President's budget request. Reverting to revised sequester-level BCA caps would constitute an additional $5-10 billion decrement each year to Navy's budget. With each year of sequestration, the loss of force structure, readiness, and future investments would cause our options to become increasingly constrained and drastic. The Navy already shrank 23 ships and 63,000 personnel between 2002 and 2012. It has few options left to find more efficiencies.

While Navy will do its part to help the Nation get its fiscal house in order, it is imperative we do so in a coherent and thoughtful manner to ensure appropriate readiness, warfighting capability, and forward presence—the attributes we depend upon for our Navy. Unless naval forces are properly sized, modernized at the right pace, ready to deploy with adequate training and equipment, and capable to respond in the numbers and at the speed required by Combatant Commanders, they will not be able to carry out the Nation's defense strategy as written. We will be compelled to go to fewer places, and do fewer things. Most importantly, when facing major contingencies, our ability to fight and win will neither be quick nor decisive.

Unless this Nation envisions a significantly diminished global security role for its military, we must address the growing mismatch in ends, ways, and means. The world is becoming more complex, uncertain, and turbulent. Our adversaries' capabilities are diversifying and expanding. Naval forces are more important than ever in building global security, projecting power, deterring foes, and rapidly responding to crises that affect our national security. A return to sequestration would seriously weaken the United States Navy's ability to contribute to U.S. and global security.92

Greenert's testimony concluded with the following table:

Figure J-1. Navy Table on Mission Impacts of Limiting Navy's Budget to BCA Levels

Source: Statement of Admiral Jonathan Greenert, U.S. Navy, Chief of Naval Operations, Before the Senate Armed Services Committee on the Impact of Sequestration on National Defense, January 28, 2015.

March 2015 Navy Report

The Navy's March 2015 report to Congress on its FY2016 30-year shipbuilding plan states:

Long Term Navy Impact of Budget Control Act (BCA) Resource Level

The BCA is essentially a ten-percent reduction to DOD's TOA. With the CVN [aircraft carrier] and OR [Ohio replacement] SSBN programs protected from this cut, as described above, there would be a compounding effect on the remainder of the Navy's programs. The shortage of funding could potentially reverse the Navy's progress towards recapitalizing a 308 ship battle force and could damage an already fragile shipbuilding industry. There are many ways to balance between force structure, readiness, capability, and manpower, but none that Navy has calculated that enable us to confidently execute the current defense strategy within BCA level funding.

If the BCA is not rescinded, it may impact Navy's ability to procure those ships we intend to procure between now and FY2020. Although Navy would look elsewhere to absorb sequestration shortfalls because of the irreversibility of force structure cuts, a result might be that a number of the ships reflected in the current FYDP may be delayed to the future. The unintended consequence of these potential delays would be the increased costs of restoring these ships on top of an already stretched shipbuilding account that is trying to deal with the post FY2021 OR SSBN costs.

As previously articulated, barring changes to the Fleet's operational requirements, the annual impact of sequestration level funding may require Navy to balance resources to fund readiness accounts to keep what we have operating, manned, and trained. The net result of these actions could potentially create a smaller Navy that is limited in its ability to project power around the world and simply unable to execute the nation's defense strategy. A decline would not be immediate due to the ongoing shipbuilding projects already procured but would impact the future fleet size. Disruptions in naval ship design and construction plans are significant because of the long-lead time, specialized skills, and integration needed to build military ships. The extent of these impacts would be directly related to the length of time we are under a BCA and the TOA reductions that are apportioned to the Navy.93

Appendix K. U.S. Strategy and the Size and Structure of U.S. Naval Forces

This appendix presents some observations on the relationship between U.S. strategy and the size and structure of U.S. naval forces that can form part of the context for assessing Navy force structure goals and shipbuilding plans.94

Strategic considerations that can be considered in assessing Navy force structure goals and shipbuilding plans include, among other things, the U.S. strategic rebalancing toward the Asia-Pacific region,95 China's modernization of its maritime military capabilities,96 Russia's resurgent naval (particularly submarine) operations, and requests from U.S. regional combatant commanders (CCDRs) for forward-deployed U.S. naval forces that the Navy testified in 2014 would require a Navy of about 450 ships to fully meet.97

More broadly, from a strategic perspective it can be noted that that U.S. naval forces, while not inexpensive, give the United States the ability to convert the world's oceans—a global commons that covers more than two-thirds of the planet's surface—into a medium of maneuver and operations for projecting U.S. power ashore and otherwise defending U.S. interests around the world. The ability to use the world's oceans in this manner—and to deny other countries the use of the world's oceans for taking actions against U.S. interests—constitutes an immense asymmetric advantage for the United States. This point would be less important if less of the world were covered by water, or if the oceans were carved into territorial blocks, like the land. Most of the world, however, is covered by water, and most of those waters are international waters, where naval forces can operate freely. The point, consequently, is not that U.S. naval forces are intrinsically special or privileged—it is that they have a certain value simply as a consequence of the physical and legal organization of the planet.

An additional point that can be noted in relating U.S. naval forces to U.S. national strategy is that most of the world's people, resources, and economic activity are located not in the Western Hemisphere, but in the other hemisphere, particularly Eurasia. In response to this basic feature of world geography, U.S. policymakers for the last several decades have chosen to pursue, as a key element of U.S. national strategy, a goal of preventing the emergence of a regional hegemon in one part of Eurasia or another, on the grounds that such a hegemon could represent a concentration of power strong enough to threaten core U.S. interests by, for example, denying the United States access to some of the other hemisphere's resources and economic activity. Although U.S. policymakers have not often stated this key national strategic goal explicitly in public, U.S. military operations in recent decades—both wartime operations and day-to-day operations—have been carried out in no small part in support of this key goal.

The traditional U.S. goal of preventing the emergence of a regional hegemon in one part of Eurasia or another has been a major reason why the U.S. military is structured with force elements that enable it to cross broad expanses of ocean and air space and then conduct sustained, large-scale military operations upon arrival. Force elements associated with this goal include, among other things, an Air Force with significant numbers of long-range bombers, long-range surveillance aircraft, long-range airlift aircraft, and aerial refueling tankers, and a Navy with significant numbers of aircraft carriers, nuclear-powered attack submarines, large surface combatants, large amphibious ships, and underway replenishment ships.

The United States is the only country in the world that has designed its military to cross broad expanses of ocean and air space and then conduct sustained, large-scale military operations upon arrival. The other countries in the Western Hemisphere do not design their forces to do this because they cannot afford to, and because the United States has been, in effect, doing it for them. Countries in the other hemisphere do not design their forces to do this for the very basic reason that they are already in the other hemisphere, and consequently instead spend their defense money on forces that are tailored largely for influencing events in their own local region.

The fact that the United States has designed its military to do something that other countries do not design their forces to do—cross broad expanses of ocean and air space and then conduct sustained, large-scale military operations upon arrival—can be important to keep in mind when comparing the U.S. military to the militaries of other nations. For example, in observing that the U.S. Navy has 11 aircraft carriers while other countries have no more than one or two, it can be noted other countries do not need a significant number of aircraft carriers because, unlike the United States, they are not designing their forces to cross broad expanses of ocean and air space and then conduct sustained, large-scale military operations upon arrival.

As another example, it is sometimes noted, in assessing the adequacy of U.S. naval forces, that U.S. naval forces are equal in tonnage to the next dozen or more navies combined, and that most of those next dozen or more navies are the navies of U.S. allies. Those other fleets, however, are mostly of Eurasian countries, which do not design their forces to cross to the other side of the world and then conduct sustained, large-scale military operations upon arrival. The fact that the U.S. Navy is much bigger than allied navies does not necessarily prove that U.S. naval forces are either sufficient or excessive; it simply reflects the differing and generally more limited needs that U.S. allies have for naval forces. (It might also reflect an underinvestment by some of those allies to meet even their more limited naval needs.)

Countries have differing needs for naval and other military forces. The United States, as a country located in the Western Hemisphere that has adopted a goal of preventing the emergence of a regional hegemon in one part of Eurasia or another, has defined a need for naval and other military forces that is quite different from the needs of allies that are located in Eurasia. The sufficiency of U.S. naval and other military forces consequently is best assessed not through comparison to the militaries of other countries, but against U.S. strategic goals.

Appendix L. Size of the Navy and Navy Shipbuilding Rate

Size of the Navy

Table L-1 shows the size of the Navy in terms of total number of ships since FY1948; the numbers shown in the table reflect changes over time in the rules specifying which ships count toward the total. Differing counting rules result in differing totals, and for certain years, figures reflecting more than one set of counting rules are available. Figures in the table for FY1978 and subsequent years reflect the battle force ships counting method, which is the set of counting rules established in the early 1980s for public policy discussions of the size of the Navy.

As shown in the table, the total number of battle force ships in the Navy reached a late-Cold War peak of 568 at the end of FY1987 and began declining thereafter.98 The Navy fell below 300 battle force ships in August 2003 and as of June 7, 2017, included 277 battle force ships.

As discussed in Appendix D, historical figures for total fleet size might not be a reliable yardstick for assessing the appropriateness of proposals for the future size and structure of the Navy, particularly if the historical figures are more than a few years old, because the missions to be performed by the Navy, the mix of ships that make up the Navy, and the technologies that are available to Navy ships for performing missions all change over time, and because the number of ships in the fleet in an earlier year might itself have been inappropriate (i.e., not enough or more than enough) for meeting the Navy's mission requirements in that year.

For similar reasons, trends over time in the total number of ships in the Navy are not necessarily a reliable indicator of the direction of change in the fleet's ability to perform its stated missions. An increasing number of ships in the fleet might not necessarily mean that the fleet's ability to perform its stated missions is increasing, because the fleet's mission requirements might be increasing more rapidly than ship numbers and average ship capability. Similarly, a decreasing number of ships in the fleet might not necessarily mean that the fleet's ability to perform stated missions is decreasing, because the fleet's mission requirements might be declining more rapidly than numbers of ships, or because average ship capability and the percentage of time that ships are in deployed locations might be increasing quickly enough to more than offset reductions in total ship numbers.

Table L-1. Total Number of Ships in Navy Since FY1948

FYa

Number

FYa

Number

FYa

Number

FYa

Number

1948

737

1970

769

1992

466

2014

289

1949

690

1971

702

1993

435

2015

271

1950

634

1972

654

1994

391

2016

275

1951

980

1973

584

1995

373

 

 

1952

1,097

1974

512

1996

356

 

 

1953

1,122

1975

496

1997

354

 

 

1954

1,113

1976

476

1998

333

 

 

1955

1,030

1977

464

1999

317

 

 

1956

973

1978

468

2000

318

 

 

1957

967

1979

471

2001

316

 

 

1958

890

1980

477

2002

313

 

 

1959

860

1981

490

2003

297

 

 

1960

812

1982

513

2004

291

 

 

1961

897

1983

514

2005

282

 

 

1962

959

1984

524

2006

281

 

 

1963

916

1985

541

2007

279

 

 

1964

917

1986

556

2008

282

 

 

1965

936

1987

568

2009

285

 

 

1966

947

1988

565

2010

288

 

 

1967

973

1989

566

2011

284

 

 

1968

976

1990

547

2012

287

 

 

1969

926

1991

526

2013

285

 

 

Source: Compiled by CRS using U.S. Navy data. Numbers shown reflect changes over time in the rules specifying which ships count toward the total. Figures for FY1978 and subsequent years reflect the battle force ships counting method, which is the set of counting rules established in the early 1980s for public policy discussions of the size of the Navy.

a. Data for earlier years in the table may be for the end of the calendar year (or for some other point during the year), rather than for the end of the fiscal year.

Shipbuilding Rate

Table L-2 shows past (FY1982-FY2017) and requested or programmed (FY2018-FY2022) rates of Navy ship procurement.

Table L-2. Battle Force Ships Procured or Requested, FY1982-FY2018

(Procured in FY1982-FY2017; requested for FY2017, and programmed for FY2019-FY2022)

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

17

14

16

19

20

17

15

19

15

11

11

7

4

4

5

4

5

5

6

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

6

6

5

7

8

4

5

3

8

7

10

11

11

8

8

9

9

9

7

20

21

22

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8

8

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: CRS compilation based on Navy budget data and examination of defense authorization and appropriation committee and conference reports for each fiscal year. The table excludes non-battle force ships that do not count toward the 355-ship goal, such as certain sealift and prepositioning ships operated by the Military Sealift Command and oceanographic ships operated by agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Notes: (1) The totals shown for FY2006, FY2007, and FY2008, reflect the cancellation two LCSs funded in FY2006, another two LCSs funded in FY2007, and an LCS funded in FY2008.

(2) The total shown for FY2012 includes two JHSVs—one that was included in the Navy's FY2012 budget submission, and one that was included in the Army's FY2012 budget submission. Until FY2012, JHSVs were being procured by both the Navy and the Army. The Army was to procure its fifth and final JHSV in FY2012, and this ship was included in the Army's FY2012 budget submission. In May 2011, the Navy and Army signed a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) transferring the Army's JHSVs to the Navy. In the FY2012 DOD Appropriations Act (Division A of H.R. 2055/P.L. 112-74 of December 23, 2011), the JHSV that was in the Army's FY2012 budget submission was funded through the Shipbuilding and Conversion, Navy (SCN) appropriation account, along with the JHSV that the Navy had included in its FY0212 budget submission. The four JHSVs that were procured through the Army's budget prior to FY2012, however, are not included in the annual totals shown in this table.

(3) DOD officials state that figures for FY2019-FY2022 in DOD's FY2018 budget submission are subject to change, pending the outcome of DOD's current defense strategy review, and consequently should be treated as something more akin to placeholder figures. Changes to FY2019-FY2022 figures resulting from the defense strategy review, they have stated, will be reflected in DOD's FY2019 budget submission.

Author Contact Information

[author name scrubbed], Specialist in Naval Affairs ([email address scrubbed], [phone number scrubbed])

Footnotes

1.

The Navy states that

[the] Navy's Force Structure Assessment (FSA) was developed in an effort to determine the right balance of existing forces, the ships we currently have under construction and the future procurement plans needed to address the ever-evolving and increasingly complex threats the Navy is required to counter in the global maritime commons....

The number and mix of ships in the objective force, identified by this FSA, reflects an in-depth assessment of the Navy's force structure requirements—it also includes a level of operational risk that we are willing to assume based on the resource limitations under which the Navy must operate. While the force levels articulated in this FSA are adjudged to be successful in the scenarios defined for Navy combat, that success will likely also include additional loss of forces, and longer timelines to achieve desired objectives, in each of the combat scenarios against which we plan to use these forces. It should not be assumed that this force level is the "desired" force size the Navy would pursue if resources were not a constraint—rather, this is the level that balances an acceptable level of warfighting risk to our equipment and personnel against available resources and achieves a force size that can reasonably achieve success....

In January, the 2016 FSA started with a request to the Combatant Commanders (CCDRs) to provide their unconstrained desire for Navy forces in their respective theaters. In order to fully resource these platform-specific demands, with very little risk in any theater while still supporting enduring missions and ongoing operations, the Navy would be required to double its current annual budget, which is essentially unrealistic in both current and expected future fiscal environments.

After identifying instances where forces were being requested for redundant missions or where enduring force levels were not required, while also looking at areas where we could take some risk in mission success or identify a new way to accomplish the mission, we were able to identify an FSA force level better aligned with resources available....

In order to assess warfighting risk and identify where margins existed that could be reduced, we did an in-depth review and analysis of "what it takes to win", on what timeline, and in which theater, for each major ship class. The goal of this phase of the analysis was to determine the minimum force structure that:

--complies with defense planning guidance directed combinations of challenges for force sizing and shaping;

--meets approved Day 0 and warfighting response timelines; [and]

--delivers future steady state and warfighting requirements, determined by Navy's analytic process, with an acceptable degree of risk (e.g. – does not jeopardize joint force campaign success).

(Source: U.S. Navy, Executive Summary, 2016 Navy Force Structure Assessment (FSA), December 15, 2016, pp. 1-2.)

2.

For more on China's naval modernization effort, see CRS Report RL33153, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress, by [author name scrubbed].

3.

See, for example, Dave Majumdar, "Chief of Naval Operations Richardson: US Navy is Focusing on Enemy Submarine Threat," National Interest, August 30, 2016; Dmitry Gorenburg, "Black Sea Fleet Projects Power Westward," Russian Military Reform, July 20, 2016; Dave Majumdar, "Russia's Submarine Force Is Back: How Worried Should America Be?" National Interest, July 5, 2016; Sa, LaGrone, "Admiral Warns: Russian Subs Waging Cold War-Style 'Battle of the Atlantic,'" USNI News, June 3, 2016; Jim Sciutto et al., "CNN Visits Nuclear Submarine As Deep-Sea Tensions with Russia Grow," CNN, May 5, 2016; Eric Schmitt, "Russia Bolsters Its Submarine Fleet, and Tensions With U.S. Rise," New York Times, April 20, 2016; Jim Sciutto, "Top Navy Official: Russian Sub Aggression at Peak Since Cold War," CNN, April 15, 2016; Franz-Stefan Gady, "Russian Sub Combat Patrols Nearly Doubled in 2015," The Diplomat, March 23, 2016; Karl Soper, "Russia Confirms Higher Level of Submarine Activity," IHS Jane's 360, March 23, 2016; Magnus Nordenman, "Russian Subs Are Reheating a Cold War Chokepoint," Defense One, March 4, 2016; Richard Lardner, "US Commander Says Tracking Russian Subs Is a Key Challenge," CNBC, March 1, 2016; Paul McLeary, "Chinese, Russian Subs Increasingly Worrying the Pentagon," Foreign Policy, February 24, 2016; Thomas Gibbons-Neff, "Report: Russian Sub Activity Returns to Cold War Levels," Washington Post, February 4, 2016; Nicholas de Larrinaga, "Russian Submarine Activity Topping Cold War Levels," IHS Jane's 360, February 2, 2016.

4.

See, for example, Justin Doubleday, "CNO: High Optempo Hindering Seven-Month Deployment Goal," Inside the Navy, September 19, 2016; Chris Church, "Analysts: Truman Strike Group Extension Highlights Flaws in Navy's Deployment Goal," Stars and Stripes, May 5, 2016; David Larter, "Navy Leader Warns Long Deployments Will Harm the Fleet," Navy Times, April 20, 2016; Hope Hodge Seck, "Overtaxed Fleet Needs Shorter Deployments," Military.com, March 19, 2016; David Larter, "Carrier Scramble: CENTCOM, PACOM Face Flattop Gaps This Spring Amid Tensions," Navy Times, January 7, 2016; Bryan Clark and Jesse Sloman, Deploying Beyond Their Means, America's Navy and Marine Corps at a Tipping Point, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2015, 28 pp.; Ryan T. Tewell, "Assessing the U.S. Aircraft Carrier Gap in the Gulf," Washington Institute for Near East Policy, October 5, 2015.

5.

See, for example, Hope Hodge Seck, "CNO: Navy to Hit Seven-Month Deployments by End of Year," Military.com, February 12, 2016; Chris Church, "Analysts: Truman Strike Group Extension Highlights Flaws in Navy's Deployment Goal," Stars and Stripes, May 5, 2016; David Larter, "Navy Leader Warns Long Deployments Will Harm the Fleet," Navy Times, April 20, 2016; Hope Hodge Seck, "Overtaxed Fleet Needs Shorer Deployments," Military.com, March 19, 2016; Bryan Clark and Jesse Sloman, Deploying Beyond Their Means, America's Navy and Marine Corps at a Tipping Point, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2015, 28 pp.; David Larter, "CNO: Shorter Carrier Cruises A Year Away," Navy Times, February 28, 2015; David Larter, "Uneven Burden: Some Ships See Time at Sea Surge; Others Fall Well Below Fleetwide Average," Navy Times, June 16, 2014; Richard Sisk, "Struggle Ahead to Reach 8-Month Sea Deployments," Military.com, April 8, 2016; David Larter, "Navy Fleet Boss: 9-Month Deployments Unsustainable," Military Times, April 8, 2014; Lance M. Bacon, "Fleet's New Deployment Plan To Lock In 8-Month Cruises," Defense News, April 6, 2014.

6.

Spoken testimony of Admiral Jonathan Greenert at a March 12, 2014, hearing before the House Armed Services Committee on the Department of the Navy's proposed FY2015 budget, as shown in transcript of hearing.

7.

U.S. Navy, Executive Summary, 2016 Navy Force Structure Assessment (FSA), December 15, 2016, p. 1. See also United States Navy Accelerated Fleet Plan, undated, 14 pp., with cover memorandum from the Secretary of the Navy to the Secretary of Defense, February 9, 2017, posted at InsideDefense.com (subscription required) April 6, 2017.

8.

"Presidential Memorandum on Rebuilding the U.S. Armed Forces," accessed January 31, 2017, at https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/01/27/presidential-memorandum-rebuilding-us-armed-forces.

9.

"National Defense, Donald J. Trump's Vision," accessed January 19, 2017, at https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/national-defense.

10.

William J. Perry et al., Ensuring a Strong U.S. Defense for the Future: The National Defense Panel Review of the 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review, Washington, 2014, p. 3. The statement appears again on page 49.

11.

Stephen J. Hadley and William J. Perry, co-chairmen, et al., The QDR in Perspective: Meeting America's National Security Needs In the 21st Century, The Final Report of the Quadrennial Defense Review Independent Panel, Washington, 2010, Figure 3-2 on pages 58-59.

12.

Department of Defense, Report on the Bottom-Up Review, October 1993, Figure 7 on page 28. For further discussion of the 1993 BUR, see CRS Report R43838, A Shift in the International Security Environment: Potential Implications for Defense—Issues for Congress, by [author name scrubbed].

13.

The term high-low mix refers to a force structure consisting of some mix of individually more-capable (and more-expensive) units, and individually less-capable (and less-expensive) units.

14.

William J. Perry et al., Ensuring a Strong U.S. Defense for the Future: The National Defense Panel Review of the 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review, Washington, 2014, p. 3. The statement appears again on page 49.

15.

Information provided by CBO to CRS on April 26, 2017, reflecting information in Congressional Budget Office, Costs of Building a 355-Ship Navy, April 2017, 12 pp.

16.

United States Navy Accelerated Fleet Plan, undated, 14 pp., with cover memorandum from the Secretary of the Navy to the Secretary of Defense, February 9, 2017, posted at InsideDefense.com (subscription required) April 6, 2017.

17.

United States Navy Accelerated Fleet Plan, undated, p. 4, with cover memorandum from the Secretary of the Navy to the Secretary of Defense, February 9, 2017, posted at InsideDefense.com (subscription required) April 6, 2017.

18.

United States Navy Accelerated Fleet Plan, undated, p. 8, with cover memorandum from the Secretary of the Navy to the Secretary of Defense, February 9, 2017, posted at InsideDefense.com (subscription required) April 6, 2017.

19.

Congressional Budget Office, Costs of Building a 355-Ship Navy, April 2017, p. 1.

20.

Information provided by CBO to CRS on April 26, 2017, reflecting information in Congressional Budget Office, Costs of Building a 355-Ship Navy, April 2017, 12 pp.

21.

United States Navy Accelerated Fleet Plan, undated, p. 10, with cover memorandum from the Secretary of the Navy to the Secretary of Defense, February 9, 2017, posted at InsideDefense.com (subscription required) April 6, 2017.

22.

Information provided by CBO to CRS on April 26, 2017, reflecting information in Congressional Budget Office, Costs of Building a 355-Ship Navy, April 2017, p. 3. The same figure is mentioned on page 7.

23.

United States Navy Accelerated Fleet Plan, undated, p. 14, with cover memorandum from the Secretary of the Navy to the Secretary of Defense, February 9, 2017, posted at InsideDefense.com (subscription required) April 6, 2017.

24.

Megan Eckstein, "Moran: Navy Needs As Much As $150B Extra to 'Jump-Start' Path to 355 Ships; Would Buy Mostly DDGs, SSNs, Carriers," USNI News, March 22, 2017.

25.

Information provided by CBO to CRS on April 26, 2017, reflecting information in Congressional Budget Office, Costs of Building a 355-Ship Navy, April 2017, 12 pp.

26.

The rough estimate of 15,000 additional sailors is based on Navy ship crew sizes as shown in the Navy's online Fact File (http://www.navy.mil/navydata/fact.asp), and includes the following:

about 2,376 sailors for 18 additional attack submarines (132 per boat);

about 4,500 sailors for 1 additional aircraft carrier (including about 3,000 to operate the ship and about 1,500 to operate its embarked air wing);

about 5,264 sailors for 16 additional destroyers (329 per ship);

about 1,520 sailors for 4 additional amphibious ships (380 per ship);

about 18 sailors for 3 additional combat logistics force ships (6 per ship—these ships have mostly civilian crews);

about 750 sailors for 3 additional expeditionary support base ships (ESBs) (about 250 per ship, depending on the mission—these ships also have 34 additional Military Sealift Command personnel); and

additional sailors for the 2 additional command and support ships.

The figures above exclude any additional sailors that might be needed ashore in support roles.

27.

See, for example, Hope Hodge Seck, "Navy Needs Up to 40,000 More Sailors to Staff 350-Ship Fleet," Military.com, May 19, 2017.

28.

For further discussion regarding the challenges of expanding shipyard workforces, see Mike Stone, "Missing from Trump's Grand Navy Plan: Skilled Workers to Build the Fleet," Reuters, March 17, 2017; and James Bach, "Massive Navy Expansion May Be Easier Said Than Done for U.S. Shipbuilders," Washington Business Journal, March 3, 2017.

29.

Congressional Budget Office, Costs of Building a 355-Ship Navy, April 2017, pp. 9-10.

30.

10 USC 7309 states:

§7309. Construction of vessels in foreign shipyards: prohibition

(a) Prohibition.-Except as provided in subsection (b), no vessel to be constructed for any of the armed forces, and no major component of the hull or superstructure of any such vessel, may be constructed in a foreign shipyard.

(b) Presidential Waiver for National Security Interest.-(1) The President may authorize exceptions to the prohibition in subsection (a) when the President determines that it is in the national security interest of the United States to do so.

(2) The President shall transmit notice to Congress of any such determination, and no contract may be made pursuant to the exception authorized until the end of the 30-day period beginning on the date on which the notice of the determination is received by Congress.

(c) Exception for Inflatable Boats.-An inflatable boat or a rigid inflatable boat, as defined by the Secretary of the Navy, is not a vessel for the purpose of the restriction in subsection (a).

In addition, the paragraph in the annual DOD appropriations act that makes appropriations for the Navy's primary shipbuilding account (the Shipbuilding and Conversion, Navy, or SCN, account) typically includes provisions stating "Provided further, That none of the funds provided under this heading for the construction or conversion of any naval vessel to be constructed in shipyards in the United States shall be expended in foreign facilities for the construction of major components of such vessel: Provided further, That none of the funds provided under this heading shall be used for the construction of any naval vessel in foreign shipyards."

31.

Two of these seven shipyards—Newport News Shipbuilding of Newport News, VA, and Ingalls Shipbuilding of Pascagoula, MIS—are owned by Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII). HII's primary activities are building new submarines and aircraft carriers and performing mid-life refueling overhauls of existing aircraft carriers. HII states that it employed a total of almost 37,000 people as of January 2017. (Source: HII website, http://www.huntingtoningalls.com/, accessed January 26, 2017.)

Three of these seven shipyards—Bath Iron Works of Bath, ME; the Electric Boat division of Groton, CT, and Quonset Point, RI; and National Steel and Shipbuilding Company (NASSCO) in San Diego, CA—are owned by General Dynamics (GD). GD reportedly employed a total of roughly 23,600 people at these three shipyards as of 2016, with the breakdown as follows:

GD/BIW reportedly employed 6,100 people as of September 2016. (Source: Beth Brogan, "Bath Iron Works cuts 160 jobs, including layoff of 30 workers," Bangor Daily News, September 23, 2016.).

GD/EB reportedly employed about 14,000 people as of 2016. (Source: Stephen Singer, Electric Boat To Hire Thousands As Military Strategy Shifts Back To Subs, Hartford Courant, April 18, 2016. The article states: "As many as 850 high-skilled, well-paid manufacturing and other jobs are being filled this year and nearly 4,000 in the next 15 years, establishing a workforce of 18,000 at the submarine manufacturer's sites in Groton and Quonset Point, R.I.")

GD/NASSCO reportedly employed about 3,500 people as of October 2016. (Source: Chris Jennewein, "NASSCO Warns Employees 700 Layoffs May Be Coming in January," Times of San Diego, October 25, 2016.)

The remaining two shipyards are Fincantieri/Marinette Marine of Marinette, WI, and Austal USA of Mobile, AL. Both yards build Littoral Combat Ships (LCSs), and Austal USA additionally builds Expeditionary Fast Transports (EPFs—these ships were previously called Joint High Speed Vessels, or JHSVs). As of March 2016, Marinette Marine reportedly employed more than 2,000 people and Austal USA reportedly employed more than 4,000 people. (Source: Allyson Versprille, "LCS Cuts Could Strain Shipbuilding Industry," National Defense, March 2016.)

32.

For example, at HII/Newport News Shipbuilding, a sizeable fraction of the production workforce is assigned to mid-life nuclear refueling overhauls of existing aircraft carriers. At HII/Ingalls, some production workers are assigned to building national Security Cutters (NSCs) for the Coast Guard. At GD/NASSCO, some production workers may be assigned to the production of commercial cargo ships.

33.

Maritime Administration (MARAD), The Economic Importance of the U.S. Shipbuilding and Repairing Industry, November 2015, pp. E-3, E-4, For another perspective on the issue of the impact of shipbuilding on the broader economy, see Edward G. Keating et al, The Economic Consequences of Investing in Shipbuilding, Case Studies in the United States and Sweden, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, 2015 (Report RR-1036), 69 pp.

34.

Yasmin Tadjdeh, "Navy Shipbuilders Prepared for Proposed Fleet Buildup," National Defense, March 2017. Similarly, another press report states: "The Navy envisioned by Trump could create more than 50,000 jobs, the Shipbuilders Council of America, a trade group representing U.S. shipbuilders, repairers and suppliers, told Reuters." (Mike Stone, "Missing from Trump's Grand Navy Plan: Skilled Workers to Build the Fleet," Reuters, March 17, 2017.)

35.

Jaqueline Klimas, "Growing Shipbuilding Workforce Seen As Major Challenge for Trump's Navy Buildup," Politico, June 14, 2017.

36.

Lee Hudson, "CNO Considers Modernizing Oliver Hazard Perry-Class Frigates," Inside the Navy, June 19, 2017.

37.

Sam LaGrone, "CNO Richardson: Perry Frigates Only Inactive Hulls Navy Considering Returning to Active Fleet; DDG Life Extension Study Underway," USNI News, June 16, 2017.

38.

Richard Abott, "Navy Looking At Bringing Back Perry Frigates, Life Extension, Networking For Larger Fleet," Defense Daily, June 15, 2017:1. See also Richard Abott, "NAVSEA Chief Says Increased Maintenance Funds Will Help Reach 355-Ship Fleet Faster," Defense Daily, June 2, 2017: 1; Megan Eckstein, "NAVSEA: Extending Surface Ship Service lives Could Speed Up 355-Ship Buildup By 10-15 Years," USNI News, June 1, 2017; Tyler Rogoway, "US Navy Looking At Bringing Back Carrier USS Kitty Hawk Out of Mothballs," The Drive, June 8, 2017.

39.

Sam LaGrone, "CNO: Navy 'Taking a Hard Look' at Bringing Back Oliver Hazard Perry Frigates, DDG Life Extensions as Options to Build Out 355 Ship Fleet," USNI News, June 13, 2017.

40.

In addition to the press reports cited here, see also United States Navy Accelerated Fleet Plan, undated, pp. 2-4, with cover memorandum from the Secretary of the Navy to the Secretary of Defense, February 9, 2017, posted at InsideDefense.com (subscription required) April 6, 2017.

41.

Justin Doubleday, "Maintenance, Modernization Are Navy's Priorities Under Higher Topline," Inside the Navy, December 12, 2016.

42.

Hope Hodge Seck, "Navy to Trump Team: Fund Maintenance Before Buying New Ships," DoD Buzz, January 11, 2017.

43.

John Grady, "Navy to Trump: We Need Maintenance Funded Before New Ships," USNI News, January 11, 2017.

44.

Megan Eckstein, "Update to Navy Unfunded Priorities List Emphasizes Readiness; Would Add More Super Hornets, Additional Amphib," USNI News, January 24, 2017.

45.

Christopher P. Cavas, "Fix the Fleet! US Navy Makes Maintenance Top Priority," Defense News, January 24, 2017.

46.

Report to Congress on the Annual Long-Range Plan for Construction of Naval Vessels for Fiscal Year 2017, April 2016, 14 pp., posted at Politico Pro (subscription required) on May 6, 2016, and at USNI News on May 9, 2016.

47.

As of September 27, 2016, the Navy's inactive fleet—sometimes referred to informally as the "mothball" fleet—included a total of 50 retired ships, including three Ticonderoga (CG-47) class Aegis cruisers, 22 Oliver Hazard Perry (FFG-7) class frigates, and nine LHA- and LPD-type amphibious ships. Most of the 50 ships in the Navy's inactive fleet were retired upon reaching the ends of their service lives. Many of them are currently designated for eventual sale or transfer to foreign countries, experimental use as targets in Navy ship-sinking exercises, or scrapping.

48.

For further discussion, see CRS Report R43838, A Shift in the International Security Environment: Potential Implications for Defense—Issues for Congress, by [author name scrubbed].

49.

Spoken testimony of Admiral Jonathan Greenert at a March 12, 2014, hearing before the House Armed Services Committee on the Department of the Navy's proposed FY2015 budget, as shown in transcript of hearing.

50.

See, for example, Megan Eckstein, Board Recommends Further Use Of Autonomy In Sea Control, Support Of Ground Troops, USNI News, August 24, 2016; Sandra I. Erwin, "Crewless Ships in the Navy: Not If, But When," National Defense, August 14, 2016; Kris Osborn, "New Evolving Navy Drone Strategy Envisions More Autonomy, Faster Processing," Scout Warrior, June 9, 2016.James Hasik, "DARPA's New Robotic Frigate Might Seriously Change Naval Warfare," Real Clear Defense, April 14, 2016; Harry J. Kazianis, "Get Ready, China: Tech Breakthrough Could Turn U.S. Subs into Carriers," National Interest, March 2,2 2014; Megan Eckstein, "Navy: Future Undersea Warfare Will Have Longer Reach, Operate With Network of Unmanned Vehicles," USNI News, March 24, 2016.

51.

OFT's report, along with two other reports on Navy fleet architecture that were submitted to Congress in 2005, are discussed at length in CRS Report RL33955, Navy Force Structure: Alternative Force Structure Studies of 2005—Background for Congress, by [author name scrubbed]. See also Wayne P. Hughes Jr., The New Navy Fighting Machine: A Study of the Connections Between Contemporary Policy, Strategy, Sea Power, Naval Operations, and the Composition of the United States Fleet, Monterey (CA), Naval Postgraduate School, August 2009, 68 pp.

52.

Navy surface fleet leaders announced the distributed lethality concept in early 2015. The aim of distributed lethality is to boost the surface fleet's capability for attacking enemy ships and make it less possible for an enemy to cripple the U.S. fleet by concentrating its attacks on a few very-high-value Navy surface ships (particularly the Navy's aircraft carriers). See Thomas Rowden, Peter Gumataotao, and Peter Fanta, "Distributed Lethality," U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, January 2015: 18-23; Sam LaGrone, "SNA: Navy Surface Leaders Pitch More Lethal Ships, Surface Action Groups," USNI News, January 14, 2015; Kris Osborn, "Navy Unveils New Surface Warfare Strategy," Military.com, January 14, 2015; Sydney J. Freedberg Jr., "'If It Floats, It Fights,': Navy Seeks 'Distributed Lethality,'" Breaking Defense, January 14, 2015; Mike McCarthy and Megan Eckstein, "Navy Eyeing A 'Hunter Killer' Surface Fleet, Would Require Upgunning Existing Ship Fleets," Defense Daily, January 15, 2015: 1-3; Richard Scott, "Offensive Language: USN Sets Out Surface Firepower Strategy," Jane's International Defence Review, May 2015: 42-47; Megan Eckstein, "Navy Studying Implications of Distributed Lethality in Wargames Series," USNI News, July 9, 2015; Lara Seligman, "Navy Establishes Task Force To Study Impact of Distributed lethality," Inside the Navy, July 10, 2015.

53.

U.S. Navy, Executive Summary, 2016 Navy Force Structure Assessment (FSA), December 15, 2016, p. 1.

54.

Congressional Budget Office, An Analysis of the Navy's Fiscal Year 2016 Shipbuilding Plan, Table 4 on p. 13.

55.

The relatively large contribution of the future large surface combatant to the overall difference between CBO and the Navy on the cost of the FY2017 30-year shipbuilding plan appears to be due primarily to three factors:

(1) There are many of these ships in the FY2017 30-year plan—a total of 40, or about 16% of the 254 total ships in the plan.

(2) There may be a difference between CBO and the Navy over the likely size (and thus cost) of this ship. The Navy may assume the ship will use a hull closer in size to the hull of the current DDG-51 design, whereas CBO may assume a hull size that is somewhat larger than that.

(3) These destroyers occur in the final 17 years of the FY2017 30-year plan, where the effects of the difference between CBO and the Navy on how to treat inflation in Navy shipbuilding are the more pronounced.

56.

Congressional Budget Office, An Analysis of the Navy's Fiscal Year 2016 Shipbuilding Plan, October 2015, Table B-1 on page 35.

57.

U.S. Navy, Report to Congress on the Annual Long-Range Plan for Construction of Naval Vessels for Fiscal Year 2016, March 2015, pp. 7, 13-14.

58.

Report to Congress on the Annual Long-Range Plan for Construction of Naval Vessels for Fiscal Year 2017, April 2016, pp. 5 and 7.

59.

Congressional Budget Office, An Analysis of the Navy's Fiscal Year 2016 Shipbuilding Plan, October 2015, p. 3.

60.

Lee Hudson, "Navy Identifies Aircraft Carrier Midlife Refueling as LCS Budget Offset," Inside the Navy, June 12, 2017.

61.

Anthony Capaccio, "Navy Finds $500 Million for a Second Littoral Combat Ship in '18," Bloomberg, June 19, 2017.

62.

CRS Report R43838, A Shift in the International Security Environment: Potential Implications for Defense—Issues for Congress, by [author name scrubbed].

63.

For more on China's naval modernization effort, see CRS Report RL33153, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress, by [author name scrubbed].

64.

For more on these initiatives, see CRS Report R43838, A Shift in the International Security Environment: Potential Implications for Defense—Issues for Congress, by [author name scrubbed].

65.

The term "blue-water ocean areas" is used here to mean waters that are away from shore, as opposed to near-shore (i.e., littoral) waters. Iran is viewed as posing a challenge to the U.S. Navy's ability to quickly achieve and maintain sea control in littoral waters in and near the Strait of Hormuz. For additional discussion, see CRS Report R42335, Iran's Threat to the Strait of Hormuz, coordinated by [author name scrubbed].

66.

CRS In Focus IF10485, Defense Primer: Geography, Strategy, and U.S. Force Design, by [author name scrubbed].

67.

Department of Defense, Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense, January 2012, 8 pp. For additional discussion, see CRS Report R42146, Assessing the January 2012 Defense Strategic Guidance (DSG): In Brief, by [author name scrubbed] and [author name scrubbed].

68.

Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review 2014, 64 pp. For additional discussion, see CRS Report R43403, The 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) and Defense Strategy: Issues for Congress, by [author name scrubbed].

69.

Spoken testimony of Admiral Jonathan Greenert at a March 12, 2014, hearing before the House Armed Services Committee on the Department of the Navy's proposed FY2015 budget, as shown in transcript of hearing.

70.

See, for example, Statement of Admiral Jonathan Greenert, U.S. navy, Chief of Naval Operations, Before the Senate Armed Services Committee on the Impact of Sequestration on National Defense, January 28, 2015, particularly page 4 and Table 1, entitled "Mission Impacts to a Sequestered Navy."

71.

Some publications have stated that the Navy reached a peak of 594 ships at the end of FY1987. This figure, however, is the total number of active ships in the fleet, which is not the same as the total number of battle force ships. The battle force ships figure is the number used in government discussions of the size of the Navy. In recent years, the total number of active ships has been larger than the total number of battle force ships. For example, the Naval History and Heritage Command (formerly the Naval Historical Center) states that as of November 16, 2001, the Navy included a total of 337 active ships, while the Navy states that as of November 19, 2001, the Navy included a total of 317 battle force ships. Comparing the total number of active ships in one year to the total number of battle force ships in another year is thus an apples-to-oranges comparison that in this case overstates the decline since FY1987 in the number of ships in the Navy. As a general rule to avoid potential statistical distortions, comparisons of the number of ships in the Navy over time should use, whenever possible, a single counting method.

72.

C4ISR stands for command and control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.

73.

Navy force structure plans that predate those shown in Table B-1 include the Reagan-era 600-ship plan of the 1980s, the Base Force fleet of more than 400 ships planned during the final two years of the George H. W. Bush Administration, the 346-ship fleet from the Clinton Administration's 1993 Bottom-Up Review (or BUR, sometimes also called Base Force II), and the 310-ship fleet of the Clinton Administration's 1997 QDR. The table below summarizes some key features of these plans.
Features of Recent Navy Force Structure Plans

Plan

600-ship

Base Force

1993 BUR

1997 QDR

Total ships

~600

~450/416a

346

~305/310b

Attack submarines

100

80/~55c

45-55

50/55d

Aircraft carriers

15e

12

11+1f

11+1f

Surface combatants

242/228g

~150

~124

116

Amphibious ships

~75h

51i

41i

36i

Source: Prepared by CRS based on DOD and U.S. Navy data.
a. Commonly referred to as 450-ship plan, but called for decreasing to 416 ships by end of FY1999.
b. Original total of about 305 ships was increased to about 310 due to increase in number of attack submarines to 55 from 50.
c. Plan originally included 80 attack submarines, but this was later reduced to about 55.
d. Plan originally included 50 attack submarines but this was later increased to 55.
e. Plus one additional aircraft carrier in the service life extension program (SLEP).
f. Eleven active carriers plus one operational reserve carrier.
g. Plan originally included 242 surface combatants but this was later reduced to 228.
h. Number needed to lift assault echelons of one Marine Expeditionary Force (MEF) plus one Marine Expeditionary Brigade (MEB).
i. Number needed to lift assault echelons of 2.5 MEBs. Changing numbers needed to meet this goal reflect in part changes in the design and capabilities of amphibious ships.

74.

Section 1072(a)(1) of the Carl Levin and Howard P. "Buck" McKeon National Defense Authorization Act for FY2015 (H.R. 3979/P.L. 113-291 of December 19, 2014) amended 10 USC 118 generally, substituting provisions relating to a once-every-four-years defense strategy review for provisions that had related to a QDR.

75.

Stephen J. Hadley and William J. Perry, co-chairmen, et al., The QDR in Perspective: Meeting America's National Security Needs In the 21st Century, The Final Report of the Quadrennial Defense Review Independent Panel, Washington, 2010, Figure 3-2 on page 58.

76.

Letter dated August 11, 2010, from Secretary of Defense Robert Gates to the chairmen of the House and Senate Armed Services and Appropriations Committees, pp. 3 and 4. The ellipsis in the second paragraph appears in the letter.

77.

Navy Project Team, Report to Congress, Alternative Future Fleet Platform Architecture Study, October 27, 2016, 25 pp.

78.

Navy Project Team, Report to Congress, Alternative Future Fleet Platform Architecture Study, October 27, 2016, pp. 3-4.

79.

MITRE Corporation, Navy Future Fleet Platform Architecture Study, July 1, 2016, 70 pp.

80.

The MITRE study includes a footnote at this point indicating the following source for this quote: VADM John Richardson, "Preparing for Today's Undersea Warfare," U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, June 2012.

81.

Bryan Clark, et al, Restoring American Seapower: A New Fleet Architecture for the United States Navy, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2017, 138 pp.

82.

Bryan Clark, et al, Restoring American Seapower: A New Fleet Architecture for the United States Navy, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2017, pp. i-x.

83.

Hope Hodge Seck, "Navy Acquisition Chief: Surge to 355 Ships 'Easily Done,'" DoD Buzz, January 13, 2017.

84.

Sydney J. Freedberg Jr., "Build More Ships, But Not New Designs: CNO Richardson To McCain," Breaking Defense, January 17, 2017.

85.

Kris Osborn, "Navy: Larger 355-Ship Fleet—'Executable,'" Scout Warrior, January 24, 2017.

86.

Marc Selinger, "Navy Needs More Aircraft to Match Ship Increase, Secretary [of the Navy] Says," Defense Daily, January 12, 2017. See also Lee Hudson, "Ingalls Operating at About 75 Percent Capacity, Provided Info to Trump Team," Inside the Navy, January 16, 2017.

87.

Yasmin Tadjdeh, "Navy Shipbuilders Prepared for Proposed Fleet Buildup," National Defense, March 2017.

88.

John P. Casey, Executive Vice President – Marine Systems, General Dynamics Corporation, Testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Seapower, 115th Congress, Supporting the 355-Ship Navy with Focus on Submarine Industrial Base, Washington, DC, May 24, 2017, pp. 3-18. See also Marjorie Censer, "BWX Technologies Weighs When To Ready for Additional Submarines," Inside the Navy, May 29, 2017.

89.

Statement of Brian Cuccias, President, Ingalls Shipbuilding, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Subcommittee on Seapower, Senate Armed Services Committee, May 24, 2017, pp. 4-11.

90.

Testimony of Matthew O. Paxton, President, Shipbuilders Council of America, before the United States Senate Committee on Armed Services, Subcommittee on Seapower, [on] Industry Perspectives on Options and Considerations for Achieving a 355-Ship Navy, May 24, 2017, pp. 3-8.

91.

Arthur H. Barber, "Rethinking The Future Fleet," U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, May 2014: 48-52.

92.

Statement of Admiral Jonathan Greenert, U.S. Navy, Chief of Naval Operations, Before the Senate Armed Services Committee on the Impact of Sequestration on National Defense, January 28, 2015, pp. 4-9.

93.

U.S. Navy, Report to Congress on the Annual Long-Range Plan for Construction of Naval Vessels for Fiscal Year 2016, March 2015, pp. 7-8.

94.

A similar discussion can be found in CRS In Focus IF10485, Defense Primer: Geography, Strategy, and U.S. Force Design, by [author name scrubbed].

95.

For more on the strategic rebalancing, see CRS Report R42146, Assessing the January 2012 Defense Strategic Guidance (DSG): In Brief, by [author name scrubbed] and [author name scrubbed]; and CRS Report R42448, Pivot to the Pacific? The Obama Administration's "Rebalancing" Toward Asia, coordinated by [author name scrubbed].

96.

For more on China's modernization of its maritime military capabilities, see CRS Report RL33153, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress, by [author name scrubbed].

97.

Navy officials testified in March 2014 that a Navy of 450 ships would be required to fully meet CCDR requests for forward-deployed Navy forces. (Spoken testimony of Admiral Jonathan Greenert at a March 12, 2014, hearing before the House Armed Services Committee on the Department of the Navy's proposed FY2015 budget, as shown in transcript of hearing.)

98.

Some publications have stated that the Navy reached a peak of 594 ships at the end of FY1987. This figure, however, is the total number of active ships in the fleet, which is not the same as the total number of battle force ships. The battle force ships figure is the number used in government discussions of the size of the Navy. In recent years, the total number of active ships has been larger than the total number of battle force ships. For example, the Naval History and Heritage Command (formerly the Naval Historical Center) states that as of November 16, 2001, the Navy included a total of 337 active ships, while the Navy states that as of November 19, 2001, the Navy included a total of 317 battle force ships. Comparing the total number of active ships in one year to the total number of battle force ships in another year is thus an apples-to-oranges comparison that in this case overstates the decline since FY1987 in the number of ships in the Navy. As a general rule to avoid potential statistical distortions, comparisons of the number of ships in the Navy over time should use, whenever possible, a single counting method.