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June 12, 2015
President Obama Pledges Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets as
Contribution to 2015 Global Climate Change Deal
U.S. Pledge to Reduce Greenhouse Gas
The INDC also states that the U.S. 2025 target is consistent
Emissions
with a straight-line emission reduction path to “deep
On March 31, 2015, the Department of State formalized a
decarbonization” of 80% or more by 2050 (Figure 1). The
U.S. pledge, its “intended nationally determined
Administration has not produced a quantitative explanation
contribution (INDC),” that the United States intends to
of what assumptions and measures would lead the United
reduce U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 26-28%
States to achieve its INDC. Some observers believe that the
by 2025 compared to 2005 levels. The United States stated
United States could commit to deeper reductions with
it will “make best efforts to reduce its emissions by 28%.”
existing authorities, while others doubt that the
Administration has a quantitative plan to achieve the target.
The United States submitted this INDC under the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Relevant Law, Regulations, and Measures
(UNFCCC) as a step in negotiating a new global agreement
The U.S. INDC identifies regulations and authorities that
by the end of 2015 to address climate change in 2020 and
are “relevant” to implementing the target. Existing
beyond. All Parties are invited to submit INDCs as early as
regulations under the Clean Air Act (CAA) include fuel
they are prepared to do so before the December
economy standards for vehicles. The Energy Policy Act
negotiations. The U.S. INDC covers only GHG mitigation
(EPAct) and the Energy Independence and Security Act
though some countries seek commitments to cover
(EISA) include energy conservation standards for
financing, support for adaptation to climate change,
appliances and equipment and a building code
compensation for loss and damage, and additional issues.
determination for commercial buildings. Regulations and
measures under development include the following:
The U.S. INDC is not explicitly conditional on other
countries’ actions. The statement alludes, however, to the
The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) proposal
continuing U.S. policy that GHG reductions be part of a
of carbon dioxide emission standards for new electricity
collective global effort.
generating units (EGUs) under CAA §111(b) and for
existing EGUs under CAA §111(d);
The United States notes that its INDC is supported by
domestic policy actions that place the nation on a course to
reduce GHG emissions by 17% by 2020 below 2005 levels.
Figure 1.
Source: CRS, with data from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Based on U.S. Government. “U.S. Cover Note, INDC and Accompanying
Information.” March 31, 2015. Available at http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/indc/Submission%20Pages/submissions.aspx.
Notes: These estimates are of net human-related emissions, comprising gross emissions from energy and other sectors, net removals of CO2
from the atmosphere by “land use, land use change, and forestry” and sequestration of carbon in harvested wood products.
Post-2018 fuel economy standards for heavy-duty
vehicles under the CAA;
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President Obama Pledges Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets as Contribution to 2015 Global Climate Change Deal
Standards to limit methane emissions from landfills and
its intention to reduce its GHG emissions by 30% below
the oil and gas sector under the CAA;
2005 levels by 2030. Russia offered an “indicator” of
limiting GHG to 25-30% below 1990 levels by 2030,
Reduction of hydrofluorocarbons use and emissions
subject to “maximum possible account of absorbing
under the CAA Significant New Alternatives Program
capacity of forests.”
under CAA §605(a);
Further energy conservation standards for buildings,
Mexico was a developing country party in 1992 when the
appliances, and equipment under EPAct and EISA;
UNFCCC was signed. Now Mexico has pledged an INDC
to “peak”
its GHG emissions by 2026. As of June 1, 2015,
Actions under Executive Order 13693 (March 15, 2015)
INDCs had also been submitted by Switzerland, Norway,
to reduce GHG emissions from federal operations by
Gabon, Lichtenstein, and Andorra. Parties that have
40% below 2005 levels by 2025.
submitted INDCs together account for more than a third of
Not Legally Binding
global GHG emissions but include only four of the top 10
emitters.
The United States and almost all other countries already
have legally binding, qualitative obligations under the
In November 2014, China announced its intent to peak its
UNFCCC. The UNFCCC is an international treaty that is
carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and increase the
legally binding on the United States because the parties
non-fossil share of its primary energy supply to 20% by
intended it to be so, the United States ratified it in 1992, and
2030. Its formal INDC is expected mid-year. India has been
it entered into force.
less forthcoming about when it may submit its INDC or
what the content may be. Indian officials have stated that
This INDC is not legally binding. Still to be negotiated is
the government will submit its INDC “well before” the
whether its embodiment in, or association with, the new
December meeting when the new agreement is due.
agreement ultimately will be binding. The mandate for the
new agreement specifies that it should have “legal force ...
A 2o Celsius Goal
applicable to all Parties.”
President Obama and other leaders of the Group of Seven
nations confirmed in their Declaration of June 8, 2015, their
U.S. negotiators have promoted a proposal that not all
support for a goal of avoiding a global temperature increase
elements of the agreement need be legally binding. Rather,
U.S. climate envoy Todd Stern stated, “We think the most
greater than 2o Celsius (C) (3.6o Fahrenheit) above pre-
industrial levels. Some nations, particularly island states
interesting proposal on the table is New Zealand’s, under
and low-lying nations, have called for a stronger goal of
which there would be a legally binding obligation to submit
a ‘schedule’ for reducing emissions, plus various legally
1.5o C instead.
binding provisions for accounting, reporting, review,
The G7 also agreed to support sharing with all Parties a
periodic updating of the schedules, etc. But the content of
reduction of global GHG emissions to the upper end of the
the schedule itself would not be legally binding at an
international level.”
range of 40-70% below 2010 levels by 2050 without
specifying how that ambition might be shared among
countries or groups of countries. Such pledges are not
Many experts expect that, if the United States were to sign a
legally binding. The leaders also committed to “develop
new agreement that contains binding, quantitative GHG
long-term, national, low-carbon strategies,” including
targets, the President would send it to the Senate or the full
“developing and deploying innovative technologies striving
Congress for its approval. To the degree that a new
for a transformation of the energy sectors by 2050.”
agreement is not legally binding or does not contain new
Observers at the meeting reported that German Chancellor
substantive commitments, U.S. acceptance of the
Angela Merkel, who hosted the session, sought stronger
arrangement may not legally require Senate advice and
commitments from other leaders, including a long-term
consent.
goal of zero-carbon economies. Leaders from Canada and
Other Countries’ Targets
Japan were most reticent to set such a target, resulting in the
moderated language.
Other Parties have announced specific GHG targets or
actions to contribute to the evolving post-2020 regime. The
European Union (EU) and several countries have submitted
Jane A. Leggett, Specialist in Energy and Environmental
their INDCs, and others are expected to provide them mid-
Policy
year or later. The EU pledged to reduce its GHG emissions
to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. Canada’s INDC stated
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President Obama Pledges Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets as Contribution to 2015 Global Climate Change Deal
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