Iraqi Civilian, Police, and Security Forces Casualty Estimates

Iraqi Civilian, Police, and Security Forces Casualty Estimates

Order Code RS22441
Updated September 14, 2006
CRS Report for Congress
Received through the CRS Web
Iraqi Civilian, Police, and Security Forces
Casualty Estimates
Hannah Fischer
Information Research Specialist
Knowledge Services Group
Summary
This report presents various estimates of Iraqi civilian, police, and security forces
casualties. The Department of Defense (DOD) regularly updates total U.S. military
death and wounded statistics from Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF), as reflected in CRS
Report RS21578, Iraq: Summary of U.S. Casualties. However, no Iraqi or U.S.
government office regularly releases statistics on Iraqi civilian deaths, Iraqi police
deaths, or Iraqi security forces deaths. Statistics on these topics are sometimes available
through alternative sources, such as nonprofit organizations, or through statements made
by officials to the press.
Many of the estimates included in this report are incomplete or have been released
by non-governmental sources. Because these estimates are based on varying time
periods and have been created using differing methodologies, readers should exercise
caution when using these statistics and should look on them as guideposts rather than
as statements of historical fact. This report will be updated as needed.
Iraqi Civilian Casualty Estimates
The United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) and the United States
Department of Defense (DOD) have recently released reports that include sections on
Iraqi civilian casualties. In its Human Rights Report for May 1 - June 30, 2006, the
UNAMI estimated that 2,669 Iraqi civilians were killed in May 2006 and 3,149 Iraqi
civilians were killed in June 2006.1 These figures combine two counts: one from the Iraq
Ministry of Health, which records deaths reported by hospitals; and one from the Medico-
Legal Institute (MLI) in Baghdad, which tallies the unidentified bodies it receives.2 The
combined count of civilian casualties from January 2006 to June 2006 was reported as
1 United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq, Human Rights Report: 1 May - 30 June 2006, at
[http://tinyurl.com/ml6c8], p. 3.
2 Nick Wadhams, “Iraq civilian toll spikes to nearly 6,000,” Associated Press, July 19, 2006.
Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress

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14,228.3 In each of these figures, the Region of Kurdistan has been excluded. The UN
report further states:
On 25 June, the [Iraqi] Ministry of Health publicly acknowledged information stating
that since 2003 at least 50,000 persons have been killed violently. The Baghdad
morgue reportedly received 30,204 bodies from 2003 to mid-2006. Deaths numbering
18,933 occurred from “military clashes” and “terrorist attacks” between 5 April 2004
and 1 June 2006. The Ministry further indicated that the number of deaths is probably
underreported.4
The U.S. Department of Defense has not released an estimate of Iraqi civilian deaths
during OIF. However, it has released a bar chart of the average daily Iraqi casualties and
average daily coalition casualties. The chart does not distinguish between deaths and
wounded, nor does it distinguish between civilians and security forces (or ISF).5
Average Daily Casualties — Iraqi (incl. ISF) and Coalition
April 1, 2004 — May 12, 2006
Source: DOD, Derived from Multi-National Corps - Iraq, [http://www.defenselink.mil/news/may2006/
d20060530SecurityandStabiltyRptFinalv2.pdf]. Casualty data on this [chart] reflect updated data for each
period and are derived from unverified initial reports submitted by Coalition elements responding to an
incident; the inconclusivity of these numbers constrains them to be used for comparative purposes only.
Other Iraqi or U.S. government officials have also made estimates of Iraqi civilian
casualties, often in conversations with the media. In a question and answer period after
a speech in December 2005, President George W. Bush gave an estimate of civilian
3 United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq, Human Rights Report: 1 May - 30 June 2006, at
[http://tinyurl.com/ml6c8].
4 Ibid.
5 U.S. Department of Defense, Multi-National Corps-Iraq, Measuring Stability and Security in
Iraq: August 2006 Report to Congress in Accordance with the Department of Defense
A p p r o p r i a t i o n s A c t 2 0 0 6 ( S e c t i o n 9 0 1 0 ) , A u g u s t 2 0 0 6 , a t
[http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/Security-Stabilty-ReportAug29r1.pdf].

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deaths, stating “30,000 [Iraqi civilians], more or less, have died as a result of the initial
incursion and the ongoing violence against Iraqis [during Operation Iraqi Freedom].”6
After the speech, however, aides said that Bush’s statement was not an official
government estimate but a reflection of figures in news media reports.7
In a recent article in the Washington Post, Gianni Magazzeni, chief of UNAMI’s
Human Rights Office, confirmed that there had been 1,536 violent deaths in Baghdad in
August 2006, as reported by the Baghdad morgue.8 These figures showed a marked
increase from the Baghdad morgue’s original estimate of 500 violent deaths in Baghdad
in August 2006, which at the time gave rise to speculation that violence was decreasing
in Baghdad.9 Separately, the Iraq Health Ministry confirmed that it planned to construct
two new branch morgues in Baghdad and add doctors and refrigerator units to raise
capacity to as many as 250 corpses a day.10 In an earlier interview with Newsweek, the
Iraqi Ministry of Health’s spokesperson announced that the Ministry had seen a 30% rise
in victims in the first few weeks of July 2006 and reported that the vast majority of the
victims were young Sunni men.11
In the midst of the rising civilian death toll, the head of the Multi-National Force-
Iraq, Lt. Gen. Peter Chiarelli, noted in an interview with Knight Ridder that “escalation
of force” incidents have gone down in a comparison between July of last year to July of
this year. “Escalation of force” incidents typically involve a U.S. soldier giving a verbal
warning or hand signal to a driver approaching a checkpoint or convoy. The situation
escalates if the driver fails to stop, with the soldier firing a warning shot and then shooting
to kill.12 The same article reported that an anonymous military official said that there had
been 3,000 “escalation of force” incidents from July 2005 to December 31, 2005, and that
16% of the incidents led to a civilian being killed or injured. However, from January 1,
2006 to May 31, 2006, 1,700 such incidents were reported and 12% led to a civilian being
killed or injured.13
In addition to U.S. and government sources, the media have often cited the Iraq Body
Count (IBC) and other nonprofit websites as sources of estimates of Iraqi casualties. The
IBC bases its online casualty estimates on media reports of casualties, some of which may
involve security forces as well as civilians. As of September 13, 2006, the IBC estimated
6 White House News release, “President Discusses War on Terror and Upcoming Iraqi Elections,”
Dec. 12, 2005, at [http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/12/20051212-4.html].
7 Adam Harvey, “Bush says civilian toll in Iraq 30,000,” The Advertiser, Dec. 14, 2005, p. 42.
8 Ellen Knickmeyer, “Body Count in Baghdad Nearly Triples,” Washington Post, Sept. 8, 2006,
p. A12.
9 Ibid.
10 Ibid.
11 Malcom Beith, “Counting Corpses: The Baghdad morgue is at the center of a debate about the
number of civilians killed in Iraq,” Newsweek, July 25, 2006.
12 Nancy A. Youssef, “U.S. strives to curb Iraqi deaths; Stung by an increasingly hostile populace,
the U.S. military has launched a major campaign to lessen the number of civilian deaths in
Iraq,”Buffalo News (New York), June 22, 2006, p. A1.
13 Ibid.

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that between 41,860 and 46,537 civilians had died as a result of military action.14 In a
written statement to the British House of Commons, Foreign Minister Jack Straw noted
that he did not find the IBC’s method of tracking casualties through media sources
authoritative.15 However, because the IBC documents each of the casualties it records
with a media source and because it provides a minimum and a maximum estimate, its
numbers are widely regarded as fairly authoritative.
The Brookings Institution has used modified numbers from the UN human rights
report and Iraq Body count to develop its own estimate for Iraqi civilians who have died
by violence. The Brookings Institution estimates that 90 percent of the deaths reported
in the UN human rights report happened as a result of violence, and they use this number
as an estimate of January 2006 to July 2006 Iraqi civilian deaths due to violence. To
expand their dates to include May 2003 to December 2005, they include 1.75 times the
Iraq Body Count total (they do not specify the minimum or maximum total) to reflect “the
fact that estimates for civilian casualties from the Iraqi Ministry of the Interior were 75
percent higher than those of our Iraq Body Count-based estimate over the aggregate
December 2003 - May 2005 period.”16 By using this method, the Brookings Institution
estimates that between May 2003 and July 31, 2006, 59,000 Iraqi civilians have died due
to violence.
Another source for civilian casualty estimates is the article “Mortality Before and
After the 2003 Invasion of Iraq: Cluster Sample Survey,” published in the British medical
journal, The Lancet. Using a cluster sample survey of households in Iraq, the authors
developed an estimate of 100,000 civilian casualties due to violent deaths since the start
of the war.17 This report has come under attack for its methodology, and supporters of the
war have argued that some of the casualties could have resulted from the long-term
negative health effects of the Saddam Hussein era. In addition, British Foreign Minister
Straw has written a formal Ministerial Response rejecting the findings of the Lancet
report on the grounds that the data analyzed were inaccurate.18 Although the Lancet
report is often referred to in the media, its results are vigorously contested by some.
Finally, the Iraq Coalition Casualty Count (ICCC) has been tracking U.S. and
coalition casualties since the beginning of the war and has recently begun tracking civilian
casualties as well using an IBC-like method of posting media reports of deaths. ICCC,
like IBC, is prone to the kind of errors likely when using media reports for data: some
deaths may not be reported in the media, while other deaths may be reported more than
once. Nonetheless, both sources may be useful for different kinds of inquiries. The ICCC
14 Iraq Body Count at [http://www.iraqbodycount.net]. IBC is a nongovernmental organization
managed by researchers and volunteers.
15 Jack Straw, House of Commons Hansard Written Ministerial Statements for Nov. 17, 2004, at
[http://tinyurl.com/d5cmw].
16 Brookings Institution, Iraq Index: Tracking Reconstruction and Security in Post-Saddam Iraq,
Sept. 7, 2006, at [http://www.brookings.edu/fp/saban/iraq/index.pdf], p. 10.
17 Les Roberts, Ridyah Lafta, Richard Garfield et al., “Mortality Before and After the 2003
Invasion of Iraq: Cluster Sample Survey,” The Lancet, Oct. 29, 2004, 364 (9448): 1857-64.
18 Jack Straw, Written U.K. Ministerial Statement Responding to a Lancet Study on Iraqi
Casualty Numbers, Nov. 16, 2004, at [http://tinyurl.com/3hv8j].

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separates police and soldier deaths from civilian deaths and thus may be useful in tracking
the two populations separately. The ICCC estimates that there were 12,740 civilian
deaths from March 2005 through September 13, 2006, and 5,370 police and security force
deaths from June 2003 through September 13, 2006.19
Iraqi Police and Security Forces Casualty Statistics
As with civilian casualty statistics, casualty statistics on Iraqi security forces remain
estimates. The following selected statistics represent the cited estimates from nonprofits
and senior U.S. officials on Iraqi security forces casualty numbers. In addition to these
numbers, in a speech to the Council on Foreign Relations, Secretary of Defense Donald
Rumsfeld remarked that Iraqi security forces are taking casualties, both in terms of deaths
and wounded, at “roughly twice the rate of all coalition forces.”20 This estimate may
imply that, from May 1, 2003, to September 12, 2006, 5,800 Iraqi security forces have
died and over 40,000 have been wounded.
Iraqi Security Forces Personnel and Police Officers Killed
Iraq Coalition Casualty Count estimate of Security Forces and Police killed,
5,33221
June 2003 - September 7, 2006
Brookings’ Institution, Iraq Index, estimate of Security Forces and Police
5,33222
killed, June 2003 - July 30, 2006
Associated Press, estimate of Security Forces and Police killed, January 2006
80523
- June 2006
General Peterson’s spokesperson, estimate of Iraqi Police Officers killed in
1,49724
2005 (General Peterson is the top American police trainer in Iraq)
General Peterson’s spokesperson, estimate of Iraqi Police Officers wounded
3,25625
in 2005
For more information, CRS Report RS21578, Iraq: Summary of U.S. Casualties, by
JoAnne O’Bryant provides regular updates of U.S. military casualties.
19 Iraq Coalition Casualty Count, at [http://icasualties.org/oif/IraqiDeaths.aspx]. ICCC is a
nongovernmental organization managed by researchers and volunteers.
20 Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld, “Donald H. Rumsfeld Delivers Remarks to the
Council on Foreign Relations,” Feb. 17, 2006, as released by the Department of Defense.
21 Iraq Coalition Casualty Count, “Iraqi Police/Military,” [http://icasualties.org].
22 Brookings Institution, Iraq Index: Tracking Reconstruction and Security in Post-Saddam Iraq,
at [http://www.brookings.edu/fp/saban/iraq/index.pdf], p. 8.
23 Nick Wadhams, “Iraq civilian toll spikes to nearly 6,000,” Associated Press, July 19, 2006
24 Eric Schmitt, “2,000 more M.P.’s will help train the Iraqi police,” New York Times, Jan. 16,
2006, p. A1.
25 Ibid.