Panama: 2024 Elections and U.S. Interests

Panama: 2024 Elections and U.S. Interests

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INSIGHTi

Panama: 2024 Elections and U.S. Interests
May 7, 2024
On May 5, 2024, Panamanians elected José Raúl Mulino, the right-wing candidate of the Realizing Goals
(RM) and Alliance parties, as their president. Mulino captured 34.3% of the vote, almost 10 points ahead
of the second-place candidate (Figure 1). Panamanians also cast votes for all 71 seats of the unicameral
National Assembly; results show that no single party will have control over the legislature (Figure 2).
Mulino’s five-year term is set to begin on July 1, 2024.
The 118th Congress has demonstrated interest in Panama, particularly in terms of its role in international
trade, transnational migration, and China’s influence in the Western Hemisphere. Congress may assess
how the elections might affect these and other issues of commercial and strategic importance to the
United States.
Domestic Context
Over the past five years, President Laurentino “Nito” Cortizo (2019-present) and legislators affiliated
with his center-left Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) have controlled Panama’s executive and
legislative branches. Cortizo has faced a series of political and economic setbacks (e.g., the COVID-19
pandemic and a series of nationwide labor strikes and protests) that contributed to an 88% disapproval
rating in February 2024.
The 2024 elections came at a political and economic juncture in Panama:
• In November 2023, Cortizo announced the closure of Cobre Panamá, a copper mine run
by Canadian miner First Quantum, following the Supreme Court’s ruling on the
unconstitutionality of the contract with the company, as well as protests pushing for the
mine’s closure. The International Monetary Fund expects Panamanian economic growth
to slow to 2.5% in 2024, from 7.5% in 2023, largely due to the decision.
• A historic drought linked to the El Niño climate phenomenon has resulted in daily transit
restrictions through the Panama Canal. (Approximately 72% of transit is either to or from
U.S. ports.)
• Large-scale northward migration through the Darién Gap of the Panama-Colombia border
continues to be a humanitarian and security concern for Panama. More than 520,000
migrants crossed through the Darién Gap in 2023, and in 2024 there have been 144,635
irregular migrants recorded in Panama as of May 6.
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2024 Election Results
President-elect Mulino, 64, previously served as former President Ricardo Martinelli’s (2009-2014)
government and justice minister (2009-2010) and public security minister (2010-2014). Mulino began the
electoral campaign as Martinelli’s vice-presidential candidate, but Martinelli was constitutionally barred
from the presidency after Panama’s Supreme Court upheld a money-laundering conviction sentencing him
to 128 months in prison.
On May 3, Panama’s Supreme Court rejected a constitutional challenge to Mulino’s candidacy that argued
he could not run for president since he was not elected in the RM primary election. Although Mulino was
lesser known than Martinelli, the former president backed him and was central to his campaign, which
used the slogan, “Martinelli is Mulino, Mulino is Martinelli.” Mulino also pledged to restore the
economic prosperity experienced during Martinelli’s administration.
Mulino won the election with just over a third of the electoral vote, which was divided among six main
candidates (Figure 1). Incumbent Vice President José Gabriel Carrizo finished sixth, reflecting the
widespread discontent with the outgoing PRD government.
Figure 1. Results of Panama’s 2024 Presidential Election

Source: CRS, based on data from Electoral Tribunal of Panama, with 99% of votes counted.
Mulino’s RM and Alliance parties together won 15 seats in Panama’s 71-seat National Assembly. That is
to be the single largest bloc in the new legislature, with the exception of independent representatives, who
won 21 seats (Figure 2). The ruling PRD party, which during the 2019 to 2024 congressional term held
35 legislative seats, won 12 seats in the election.

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Figure 2. Results of Panama’s 2024 Legislative Election

Source: CRS, based on data from Electoral Tribunal of Panama, with 98% of votes counted.
Implications for U.S. Policy and Congress
The United States and Panama have maintained close ties during the Cortizo administration. In July 2023,
the Biden Administration announced a bilateral partnership with Panama to explore opportunities to
strengthen the global semiconductor supply chain under the CHIPS Act of 2022 (P.L. 117-167). Some
Members of Congress have called for enhanced U.S. engagement with Panama and other members of the
Alliance for Development in Democracy regional bloc (e.g., S.Res. 357).
On May 6, Secretary of State Antony Blinken congratulated Mulino, committing to continued bilateral
efforts on “common goals of inclusive, sustainable economic growth, bolstering citizen security, and
cooperatively curbing irregular migration through the Darién.” It is unclear how Mulino’s close ties with
Martinelli, who in January 2023 was designated by the State Department for his “involvement in
significant corruption” and barred from entering the United States, may affect U.S.-Panama relations.
Mulino, who has said that the U.S. southern border “moved to Panama,” is likely to support bilateral
efforts to manage and stem northward migration through the Darién Gap. The U.S. Department of
Homeland Security currently maintains a transnational criminal investigative unit in Panama and supports
an International Biometric Information-Sharing Program enabling Panamanian officials to detect potential
security threats. Mulino has stated that he intends to “close the Darién” and repatriate migrants traveling
through the dangerous jungle region. Congress may assess whether or not to support repatriation
initiatives or collaboration on other migration matters with Panama after Mulino takes office.
It is unclear how Mulino will approach Panama’s relationship with the People’s Republic of China (PRC),
which has been of concern to some Members of Congress. Shortly after the establishment of diplomatic
relations in 2017, Panama was the first country in Latin America to join the PRC’s Belt and Road
Initiative, which aims to develop China-centered global infrastructure, transportation, trade, and
production networks. Although the Cortizo administration has paused free trade agreement negotiations
with China, in March 2024 the Panamanian government broke ground on a fourth bridge over the Panama
Canal, constructed by a consortium of PRC state-owned companies. Congress may assess developments
in Panama as it considers bills (e.g., H.R. 7571 and S. 3878) intended to compete with the PRC and
promote stronger U.S.-Western Hemisphere relations.

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Author Information

Leticia Chacon

Analyst in Foreign Affairs

Disclaimer
This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan shared staff
to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and under the direction of
Congress. Information in a CRS Report should not be relied upon for purposes other than public understanding of
information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in connection with CRS’s institutional role.
CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not subject to copyright protection in the United
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as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or material from a third party, you may need to obtain the
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