Mexico’s 2024 Elections

Mexico’s 2024 Elections

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INSIGHTi

Mexico’s 2024 Elections
Updated June 6, 2024
On June 2, 2024, Mexico, a top U.S. trade and strategic partner, convened elections for federal, state, and
local offices, including the presidency, both chambers of congress, and nine governorships. Preliminary
results indicate a decisive victory for the ruling National Regeneration Movement (MORENA), created
by outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and its coalition. MORENA’s candidate, Claudia
Sheinbaum, won the presidential race by more than 30 percentage points. Sheinbaum, who is to be North
America’s first female head of government, is scheduled to take office on October 1 for a single, six-year
term.
According to preliminary quick-count results, the MORENA-led coalition also received the most votes in
legislative elections and won seven of nine gubernatorial contests, including the race for Mexico City’s
head of government. MORENA’s coalition appears to have secured a two-thirds majority in the Mexican
congress’s lower house, the Chamber of Deputies; the size of the coalition’s majority in the Senate
remains unclear. A two-thirds majority in both houses of congress would enable the government to amend
the constitution without cross-party support.
The 118th Congress has undertaken legislative and oversight initiatives on issues involving cross-border
cooperation with Mexico, including fentanyl trafficking, migration, and continued implementation of the
United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Members may assess the election’s results and their
implications for ongoing cooperation on these and other issues in U.S.-Mexico relations.
Preliminary Results and Outlook
The MORENA party, which has been the dominant force in Mexican politics since 2018, consolidated
political power in the 2024 elections. Sheinbaum, the presidential candidate for the MORENA-led
coalition, received 59% of the vote, a larger share than her mentor and outgoing President López Obrador
garnered in 2018 (53.2%). Sheinbaum consistently led in preelection polls, but her margin of victory over
Xóchitl Gálvez, the candidate of an ideologically diverse opposition coalition comprising the centrist
Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), conservative National Action Party (PAN), and center-left
Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD), surprised some analysts (see Figure 1).
President-elect Sheinbaum is a former head of government of Mexico City (2018-2023) and longtime ally
of President López Obrador. As a candidate, Sheinbaum pledged to build on López Obrador’s policies,
such as minimum wage increases, cash transfer programs, and infrastructure development programs.
Some analysts assess that her reported pragmatism as mayor and scientific background could nevertheless
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lead her to diverge from López Obrador on some issues. For example, Sheinbaum may seek private
investment in renewable energy rather than using public funding to support Mexico’s indebted state oil
company. Others assert that Sheinbaum’s candidacy derived much of its popularity from López Obrador’s
political base and he could continue to influence her administration.
Figure 1. Mexico 2024 Presidential Election Preliminary Results

Source: CRS, using data from Instituto Nacional Electoral, https://prep2024.ine.mx/publicacion/nacional/presidencia/
nacional/candidatura, accessed on June 4, 2024.
Notes: Percentage totals do not sum to 100% due to rounding.
In the legislative elections, MORENA’s coalition, which includes the Labor Party (PT) and the Green
Ecological Party (PVEM), obtained between 346 and 380 of 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and
between 76 and 88 of 128 seats in Mexico’s Senate. The new congress is to be seated on September 1.
Although the 2024 elections reportedly occurred without major disruptive incidents, the election cycle
was marked by political violence, an issue Mexico has grappled with for successive election cycles. One
media outlet has identified 34 candidates, mostly at the local level, who were slain since June 2023. Some
observers assert that Mexico’s drug cartels engage in political violence, especially at the local level, to
intimidate politicians, discourage voter turnout, and install candidates they can influence.
Analysts portrayed MORENA’s dominance in the 2024 elections as a sign of the Mexican electorate’s
support for López Obrador’s political agenda and governing style. López Obrador has maintained
approval ratings above 60%. His popularity appears to stem from his policies to improve living standards
for poor and working-class Mexicans and his ability to communicate directly with the Mexican people.
Critics have accused López Obrador of attempting to concentrate executive power by weakening
independent government institutions and the judiciary.
Some analysts have argued that a MORENA-controlled administration with congressional majorities large
enough to pass constitutional amendments raises the possibility of democratic backsliding in Mexico;
some investors have expressed concern that these dynamics could hinder Mexico’s investment climate. In
February 2024, President López Obrador proposed constitutional reforms he characterized as reducing
wasteful government spending and increasing citizen participation in government. If enacted, the reforms
could eliminate autonomous agencies and government regulators, increase executive control over the
independent electoral agency, and enable the popular election of Supreme Court and other federal judges.
Sheinbaum campaigned in favor of many of López Obrador’s proposed reforms. López Obrador has

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stated that he will consult with Sheinbaum about enacting some of these reforms in September, when the
new congress is seated.
Implications for U.S. Policy and Congress
In her first speech as president-elect, Sheinbaum announced her government’s relationship with the
United States will be one of “friendship, mutual respect, and equality.” President Biden extended his
congratulations to the president-elect shortly after the election. Sheinbaum has expressed willingness to
work with the next U.S. Administration on efforts to manage irregular migration while advocating for
greater economic investment in countries of origin. After years of tensions on counterdrug efforts under
the outgoing administration, it is unclear how Sheinbaum, who has suggested fentanyl is primarily a
public health issue, would approach U.S.-Mexico counternarcotics cooperation. She has endorsed
bilateral working groups on security issues. During the campaign, Sheinbaum expressed support for the
outgoing administration’s state-led approach to energy development.
Congress may monitor President-elect Sheinbaum’s positions and her level of support in the Mexican
congress, which could shape the U.S.-Mexico bilateral relationship. Congress also may monitor
developments concerning the resilience of Mexico’s democratic institutions and system of checks and
balances. In addition, Congress may consider strengthening ties with the new Mexican congress through
bilateral fora, such as the Mexico-United States Interparliamentary Group, created through H.J.Res 283 in
1960.

Author Information

Joshua Klein
Clare Ribando Seelke
Analyst in Foreign Affairs
Specialist in Latin American Affairs

Disclaimer
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to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and under the direction of
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