Guatemala: 2023 Elections and U.S. Interests

Guatemala: 2023 Elections and U.S. Interests

INSIGHTi

Guatemala: 2023 Elections and U.S. Interests
Updated October 20, 2023
Overview
After a tumultuous preelection period and first-round presidential election, marred by alleged
irregularities and the disqualification of several leading candidates, Guatemala held a runoff election on
August 20. Anti-corruption, center-left candidate Bernardo Arévalo captured 58% of the vote, according
to Guatemala’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), defeating centrist candidate Sandra Torres, who won
37.2% of the vote.
Despite this wide margin of victory, President-elect Arévalo faces a turbulent path to office. Certification
delays, raids on the TSE, and the spread of propaganda against Arévalo’s party, Moviemineto Semilla
(Semilla), have affected the transition process. Attorney General Maria Consuelo Porras (who is under
U.S. sanctions for involvement in corruption), the Public Ministry’s Office of the Special Prosecutor
Against Impunity, and political opponents of Semilla are primarily responsible for these actions. The State
Department, Organization of American States (OAS), and European Union (EU) have expressed serious
concerns over the threats to Guatemala’s democratic transition of power.
Newly elected authorities are scheduled to be inaugurated on January 14. However, some experts fear
Guatemala will continue to face a muddled transition process hindered by those in power who regard
Arévalo as a threat to the status quo. The situation could have implications for U.S. interests in Guatemala
and U.S.-Guatemalan cooperation in addressing key challenges such as migration, corruption, and human
rights, among other issues of congressional interest.
Political Context
Arévalo’s victory was unexpected and appears to reflect voter frustration with Guatemala’s political
establishment and widespread government corruption and impunity. Arévalo ran on a progressive, anti-
graft platform that aims to challenge a Guatemalan political scene that has been dominated by “right-
leaning figures aligned with the economic elite.”
Prior to the first-round vote, Arévalo was polling at 2.9%. He surged to a second-place finish after the
TSE controversially prevented several leading presidential candidates from participating in the election.
Arévalo and his Semilla party, which emerged out of Guatemala’s 2015 anti-corruption protests, were
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well placed to capture the votes of the outsider candidates who had been disqualified. Arévalo also
received strong support from Guatemala’s Indigenous population and youth.
After winning the second-round runoff by more than 20 percentage points, Arévalo is facing fraud
allegations from the attorney general’s office, which has engaged in repeated raids of the TSE, searching
for proof the election results were flawed. The Citizen’s Registry of the TSE had suspended Semilla as a
political party, complying with a warrant; the Plenary of the TSE overturned this decision until the end of
the electoral period, October 31. The Board of Directors of the current Guatemalan Congress had declared
lawmakers from the Semilla party as independents—meaning current Semilla leaders could not hold
leadership positions or lead legislative committees, among other roles; Semilla lawmakers were reinstated
due to the TSE’s ruling. It is unclear whether incoming Semilla lawmakers, who captured 23 of 160 seats
in congress, will face similar impediments.
An OAS electoral observation mission has denounced these actions as “political persecution reminiscent
of those carried out by authoritarian regimes” and a “shameful example for the hemisphere.” In the view
of former U.S. Ambassador to Guatemala Stephen McFarland, efforts to obstruct Arévalo and Semilla
legislators from taking office are orchestrated by a “‘pact of the corrupt’—a loose confederation of
political leaders, economic elites, judicial operators and organized crime figures who cooperate for spoils
and immunity from investigation.” Should he take office, Arévalo is likely to face continued resistance
from such individuals throughout his term.
Over the last month, thousands of protesters, a majority Indigenous, have taken to the streets of
Guatemala in support of the election results and called for the removal of Attorney General Porras. In
turn, Porras called on Guatemalan authorities to “forcibly” act against the “illegal” protests. President
Alejandro Giammattei has condemned these protests and deployed Guatemala’s riot police to clear them.
The State Department welcomed the election results but remains “gravely concerned” by the raids on the
TSE, attempts to prosecute TSE electoral officials, and, more broadly, attempts to undermine Guatemala’s
democracy. The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights and the EU have expressed similar
sentiments. The OAS Secretary General has named mediators who have begun fostering dialogue in
Guatemala intended to achieve consensus between leaders of the protests and Guatemalan officials; the
United States supports their ongoing work.
Issues for Congress
Some Members of Congress are closely following the postelection transition process in Guatemala and
examining the potential implications of the election for U.S. policy. Arévalo seeks to increase cooperation
with the United States. He has stated that “the first thing that will happen [when he assumes office] is that
actually the United States will find a partner that is rooting out corruption and will have all intention of
actually working toward development.” Guatemalan migration to the United States is a priority, and
fighting corruption, reestablishing democratic institutions, and providing resources to Guatemala’s
approximately 19 million people (an estimated 55.2% of whom face high levels of poverty) are key
policies to address the drivers of emigration. Emigration rates are likely to rise if electoral turmoil
intensifies, however.
Congress could consider a range of responses to address the rapidly developing electoral situation in
Guatemala. Congress could consider reorienting foreign assistance to Guatemala to support priorities the
United States shares with Arévalo, including with regard to migration, corruption, development, and
democracy. The Department of State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Appropriations Act,
2023 (P.L. 117-328, Division K), requires the State Department to withhold 60% of Economic Support
Fund and security assistance for the Guatemalan government until the Secretary of State certifies that the

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Guatemalan government has met a series of conditions, including making efforts to strengthen the
independence of electoral institutions and protecting the rights of opposition political parties.
Congress also may consider policies to enhance pressure on those hampering democratic processes in
Guatemala and stem the erosion of the rule of law, such as reauthorizing or modifying the sanctions
authority in the United States-Northern Triangle Enhanced Engagement Act (P.L. 116-260, Division FF,
Subtitle F), which is scheduled to expire in December 2023.

Author Information

Karla I. Rios

Analyst in Latin American Affairs

Disclaimer
This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan shared staff
to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and under the direction of
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