2023 Hurricane Outlooks and 2022 Hurricane Season Review

2023 Hurricane Outlooks and 2022 Hurricane Season Review

INSIGHTi

2023 Hurricane Outlooks and 2022 Hurricane
Season Review
Updated August 10, 2023
Many in Congress have expressed interest in increasing understanding of tropical cyclones and improving
forecasts to help their constituents prepare for the yearly hurricane season. These improvements may
potentially decrease a storm’s impact on an individual or community. The Department of Commerce’s
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is responsible for monitoring tropical
cyclones as they develop and issuing forecasts, including track, intensity, storm surge, and rainfall.
NOAA defines a tropical cyclone as a “rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that
originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation.” According to
NOAA, tropical cyclones include the following:
• Tropical depressions—maximum sustained winds of ≤ 38 miles per hour (mph).
• Tropical storms—maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. NOAA typically names a
storm once it reaches this strength.
• Hurricanes—maximum sustained winds of ≥ 74 mph, corresponding to at least category 1
or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Hurricanes may also be called
typhoons or cyclones, depending on the storm’s location.
• Major hurricanes—maximum sustained winds of ≥ 111 mph, corresponding to category
3, 4, or 5.
NOAA releases seasonal hurricane outlooks relevant to the United States, including for the North
Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Central Pacific Oceans, in May before each hurricane season begins. Such
outlooks include information on the number of potential named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes.
The Eastern Pacific season begins May 15, whereas the Atlantic and Central Pacific seasons begin June 1.
All seasons run through November 30. Tropical cyclones, however, may form outside of these time
frames. In August, NOAA typically updates the Atlantic outlook but not the Pacific outlooks. Multiple
nonfederal entities also publish outlooks. These forecasts rely, in part, on NOAA’s collected and shared
information.
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2023 Hurricane Season Outlooks
In May 2023, NOAA issued its initial 2023 Atlantic hurricane outlook (Table 1), indicating a 40%
likelihood of a near-normal season rather than an above-normal (30%) or below-normal (30%) season.
The hurricane season was expected to be less active than in recent years, due to the interaction of several
climate factors. These factors include the high potential for the periodic warming of sea surface
temperatures in the Central and East-Central Equatorial Pacific (El Niño phenomenon), which would
suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. These suppressive factors were expected to compete with warmer-
than-average sea surface temperatures and weaker winds in the Atlantic Ocean and an enhanced West
African monsoon, which were likely to produce and sustain Atlantic storms.
NOAA issued an updated outlook in August 2023. In the update, NOAA increased the likelihood of an
above-normal season (now 60% likelihood) and decreased the near-normal (25%) or below-normal (15%)
likelihoods. NOAA noted that El Niño had been slow to develop, allowing for storms to more easily
develop.
Table 1. 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
1991-2020 Annual Averages and 2023 Outlooks
1991-2020 Annual
NOAA
NOAA

Averages
May 2023 Outlook
August 2023 Outlook
Named Storms
14
12-17
14-20
Hurricanes
7
5-9
6-11
Major Hurricanes
3
1-4
2-5
Sources: NOAA, “Tropical Cyclone Climatology” (hereinafter, NOAA, “TC Climatology”); NOAA, “NOAA Predicts a
Near-Normal 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season,” May 25, 2023; and NOAA, “NOAA Forecasters Increase Atlantic
Hurricane Season Prediction to ‘Above Normal,’” August 10, 2023.
NOAA released its 2023 outlooks for the Eastern Pacific (Table 2) and Central Pacific hurricane seasons
in May 2023. NOAA anticipates that the Eastern Pacific area is likely to experience an above-normal
season (55%) rather than a near-normal (35%) or below-normal (10%) season. NOAA predicts a 50%
chance of an above-normal season for the Central Pacific, rather than a near-normal (35%) or below-
normal (15%) season. NOAA expects a total of four to seven tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific in
2023 (the average is four to five tropical cyclones per year).
Table 2. 2023 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season:
1991-2020 Annual Averages and 2023 Outlook

1991-2020
NOAA
Annual Averages
May 2023 Outlook
Named Storms
15
14-20
Hurricanes
8
7-11
Major Hurricanes
4
4-8
Sources: NOAA, “TC Climatology”; NOAA, “NOAA 2023 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook,” May 25, 2023.
2022 Hurricane Season
The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season aligned with NOAA’s May and August 2022 outlooks (Table 3,
Figure 1). The first storm of the Atlantic season, Tropical Storm Alex, formed from the remnants of
Hurricane Agatha, which traveled across Central America from the Eastern Pacific. The season also

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featured three major hurricanes: Bonnie, Fiona, and Ian, which caused damage across multiple states and
countries.
Table 3. 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Outlooks and Actual Amounts

NOAA
NOAA
May 2022 Outlook
August 2022 Outlook
2022 Actual
Named Storms
14-21
14-20
14
Hurricanes
6-10
6-10
9
Major Hurricanes
3-6
3-6
3
Sources: NOAA, “NOAA 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook,” May 24, 2022; NOAA, “NOAA 2022 Atlantic
Hurricane Season Outlook,” August 4, 2022; and NOAA, “Damaging 2022 Atlantic hurricane season draws to a close,”
November 29, 2022.
Figure 1. NOAA’s 2022 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Source: NOAA, “2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season.”
Notes: H = hurricane, MH = major hurricane, TS = tropical storm.
Major hurricanes (Bonnie, Fiona, and Ian) denoted in purple.
The 2022 Eastern Pacific hurricane season (Table 4, Figure 2) began with Hurricane Agatha, which
formed May 28, 2022. The season featured four major hurricanes: Bonnie, Darby, Orlene, and Roslyn.

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Table 4. 2022 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season: Outlook and Actual Amounts

NOAA May 2022 Outlook
2022 Actual
Named Storms
12-18
19
Hurricanes
5-10
11
Major Hurricanes
2-5
4
Sources: NOAA, “NOAA 2022 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook,” May 20, 2021; and NOAA, “2022 Eastern
Pacific Hurricane Season.”

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Figure 2. NOAA’s 2022 Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Source: NOAA, “2022 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season.”
Note: H = hurricane, MH = major hurricane, TS = tropical storm.
Major hurricanes (Bonnie, Darby, Orlene, and Roslyn) denoted in purple.

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NOAA predicted the Central Pacific would experience two to four tropical cyclones in 2022. One major
hurricane (Darby) traveled from the Eastern Pacific into the Central Pacific Basin in 2022 (see Hurricane
Darby’s track on Figure 2).

Author Information

Eva Lipiec

Analyst in Natural Resources Policy

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