Snap Parliamentary Elections in Kazakhstan: Outlook and Issues for Congress

Snap Parliamentary Elections in Kazakhstan: Outlook and Issues for Congress

INSIGHTi

Snap Parliamentary Elections in Kazakhstan:
Outlook and Issues for Congress
April 14, 2023
Overview
Kazakhstan, a U.S. partner in areas such as counterterrorism, nonproliferation, and regional security, held
snap parliamentary elections on March 19, 2023. The electoral contest for the Majilis, the lower chamber
of parliament, was announced in January when President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev dissolved the previous
convocation of parliament, whose term was set to expire in 2026. These elections follow constitutional
changes introduced in 2022 and represent part of Tokayev’s reform agenda. Some Members of Congress
have expressed interest in expanding U.S. engagement with Kazakhstan, and in Kazakhstan’s reform
process; other Members have conveyed support for Kazakhstan’s reforms while expressing concern about
alleged human rights abuses in the country. The Biden Administration has stated its “full support” for
Tokayev’s reform agenda, and the government of Kazakhstan seeks to consolidate bilateral relations with
the United States.
The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) noted “elements of competitiveness”
in the elections, but also flagged “significant procedural irregularities” and said citizens’ ability to fully
participate in political life remains hampered by restrictions on freedoms of association, peaceful
assembly, and expression. While self-nominated candidates were allowed to run for the first time since
2004, the ruling Amanat party secured a parliamentary majority, winning 63 of 98 seats. No election in
Kazakhstan has been deemed “free and fair” by OSCE observers, and the country is rated “not free” by
Freedom House.
Political Background
Following large-scale unrest in January 2022 and Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, President
Tokayev moved to consolidate power as his country confronts domestic economic challenges and difficult
geopolitical dynamics. Tokayev’s reforms are restructuring Kazakhstan’s political system and annulling
the privileged position of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who held office from 1991 until his
resignation in 2019. While authorities argue reforms are moving the country in a more democratic
direction, skeptics question whether Kazakhstan will implement genuine democratization. Although
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Tokayev’s vision for a “New Kazakhstan” includes development of a “multipolar party system” and “fair
and free political competition,” some analysts question the degree of political pluralism Kazakhstan’s
government will allow, and see Tokayev’s reform program as one of “authoritarian modernization.”
In a move some analysts see as part of Tokayev’s efforts to reduce Nazarbayev’s influence, Kazakhstan
held a constitutional referendum on June 5, 2022. Voters approved a range of changes curtailing some
presidential powers and removing mentions of Nazarbayev from the constitution. Tokayev said the
constitutional changes would shift Kazakhstan from a “super-presidential form of government to a
presidential republic with a strong parliament.” Following additional legislation passed in September
2022 that extends the presidential term from five to seven years and imposes a one-term limit, Tokayev
announced a snap presidential election for November, two years ahead of schedule; he won 81% of the
vote.
Electoral Process and Results
The parliamentary elections took place within a new legislative framework approved in the 2022
constitutional referendum. These changes reduced the size of the Majilis to 98 directly-elected members,
removing the nine seats previously allotted to the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan, a constitutional
body chaired by the president. Reforms also reduced the electoral threshold for political parties to enter
parliament from 7% to 5% and eased the process for registering new parties. Two new parties registered
in the months preceding the elections, marking the first time since 2006 that the government approved a
new party’s registration. Critics contend, however, that both parties are aligned with the government, and
that government opponents remain unable to register their parties. One scholar argues that the seven
parties that participated in the elections represent “an attempt by the system to cover different parts of the
electorate,” rather than independent political forces.
Under the new mixed electoral system, 69 seats in the Majilis are elected from party lists in a single
nationwide electoral district using a proportional system, while the remaining 29 are elected in single-
mandate districts, using a first-past-the-post system. The latter category allowed self-nominated
candidates to run, yielding an unusually active campaign. Of the 435 candidates for single-mandate races,
the majority were self-nominated, with 76 nominated by a political party. Electoral authorities removed
some independent candidates from the ballot. Ultimately, members of Amanat won 23 of the 29 single-
mandate seats. In the assessment of one analyst, “none of the truly independent candidates secured a
seat.” In the party-list contest, Amanat won 54% of the vote, yielding 40 seats. Five other parties entered
parliament.
While Amanat’s 63-seat majority is lower than the 76-seat majority it held in the previous parliament,
experts view all the parties in parliament as pro-presidential and do not expect any of them to challenge
Kazakhstan’s political status quo. When the new parliament convened on March 30, Tokayev reappointed
Alikhan Smailov as prime minister; Smailov has held that office since January 2022.
The official turnout figure, at 54%, is the lowest-ever in Kazakhstan’s post-independence history; actual
turnout may have been lower. Some analysts interpret the low turnout as a sign of widespread
disillusionment with the government and the political process.
Outlook and Issues for Congress
While the government of Kazakhstan continues to tout ongoing reforms, one scholar argues that
Kazakhstan’s authorities are pursuing “a modicum of change, but only the type of change they can
control.” Some voters in Kazakhstan expressed frustrated hopes following the elections, at a time when
Kazakhstan’s government faces a range of challenges stemming from the shifting geopolitical

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environment. Because of close economic ties between Russia and Kazakhstan, Russia’s war in Ukraine
places Kazakhstan in a difficult position. The country is facing significant inflation; some analysts argue
that this may spur further public discontent. On April 11, authorities detained oil workers protesting over
economic grievances.
Congress could consider whether to seek opportunities for developing U.S.-Kazakhstan relations given
shifting geopolitics, and how the United States might support democratization in Kazakhstan. In light of
the war and related sanctions, Kazakhstan aims to diversify its trade relationships. Members may consider
how U.S. engagement can help Kazakhstan and other Central Asian nations reduce their dependence on
Russia.

Author Information

Maria A. Blackwood

Analyst in Asian Policy

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