Pursuing Peace in Ethiopia: Issues for Congress

Pursuing Peace in Ethiopia: Issues for Congress

INSIGHTi

Pursuing Peace in Ethiopia: Issues for
Congress
December 19, 2022
On November 2, 2022, authorities from Ethiopia’s Tigray region and its federal government signed a
permanent cessation of hostilities agreement, announcing their intent to end the war in northern Ethiopia
on the eve of its second anniversary. Peace talks had begun the week prior, under African Union (AU)
auspices in Pretoria, South Africa, and the deal took many by surprise. The Biden Administration says it
waged “a very intense diplomatic effort” to stop the fighting, and Members of Congress engaged Prime
Minister Abiy Ahmed to urge a ceasefire. U.S. officials called the agreement “an important step toward
peace,” in what has been called the world's deadliest war. The Pretoria deal is not a comprehensive peace
agreement—it commits the parties to a series of basic principles and confidence-building measures, and
provides a foundation for further negotiations. Congress may monitor its implementation and further
negotiations as it considers humanitarian needs, accountability concerns, and requests for reconstruction
aid.
A communications blackout in Tigray and access restrictions have obscured the war’s toll, but as many as
600,000 civilians may have died from war-related violence, starvation, and lack of health care—the result
of what some term a humanitarian siege. By some accounts, over 300,000 combatants died in the recent
round of fighting, which began in August when a U.S.-facilitated humanitarian truce unraveled. “The
scale of the fighting and deaths rival what we’re seeing in Ukraine,” one U.S. official reported in October.
The UN Secretary-General warned at the time that the situation was “spiraling out of control,” amid fears
of fresh atrocities.
The conflict has displaced over 2.5 million people and fueled a humanitarian crisis in which over 13
million people in northern Ethiopia need food aid, amidst a regional drought crisis that is competing for
donor resources. The Pretoria agreement commits the signatories to unfettered humanitarian access in
Tigray, where almost 90% of households are estimated to be food insecure. Access has improved since
mid-November, but some parts of Tigray reportedly occupied by Eritrean forces and Amhara militia
remain inaccessible. Some observers have urged greater donor scrutiny of the humanitarian response,
citing, among other concerns, reports that the Ethiopian government blocked a famine declaration in
2021. The UN-mandated International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia assesses that
the parties to the conflict have committed war crimes and the Ethiopian government and its allies have
used starvation of civilians as a method of warfare and committed crimes against humanity. Its recent
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report follows another UN investigation that documented serious abuses, including “widespread and
systematic” rape.
Ethiopian officials, who claimed victory after the Pretoria deal, have committed to restoring basic services
and protecting civilians in Tigray. They have also committed to lifting the terrorist designation they
placed on the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)—Tigray’s ruling party and once the dominant
faction in Ethiopia’s ruling coalition—in 2021. The TPLF has committed to disarm Tigrayan combatants,
and to cede control of the state to an “inclusive” interim regional government until elections are held.
Disarmament talks continue after a follow-on agreement in mid-November. Sensitive political
negotiations remain outstanding, but the parties have agreed to resolve their differences peacefully and in
line with the constitution.
As of mid-December, the ceasefire appeared to be holding, but observers warn that parties to the conflict
not involved in the peace process could become spoilers. Eritrea has a long-running feud with the TPLF
and bolstered the recent joint Ethiopian-Eritrean offensive in Tigray through mass mobilization and
forced conscription. The ceasefire deal links Tigrayan disarmament to the withdrawal of “foreign” forces,
but U.S. officials say Eritrean forces remain in Tigray and multiple reports implicate them in looting,
destroying property, and killing civilians. Fresh abuses attributed to forces from the neighboring Amhara
region underscore questions about the federal government’s plans for western Tigray, which Amhara
regional officials have sought to annex. An estimated 700,000 ethnic Tigrayans were forcibly displaced
from the contested area, in what U.S. officials term ethnic cleansing.
Issues and Possible Options for Congress
The Tigray conflict has spurred congressional concern and debates over the U.S. response. Some
Members have opposed punitive measures, while others have pressed for further action, including through
legislation (e.g., H.R. 6600 and S. 3199). The Ethiopian government opposes sanctions and aid
restrictions, and has sought restoration of U.S. trade preferences under the African Growth and
Opportunities Act, as amended (AGOA; P.L. 106-200), which were terminated due to gross human rights
violations, per congressionally-mandated eligibility requirements. The Biden Administration established a
targeted sanctions regime in 2021 and has designated Eritreans but no Ethiopians under it.
Oversight and consideration of U.S. foreign assistance may provide opportunities for congressional
engagement. The United States is Ethiopia’s top humanitarian donor, providing over $2 billion in
emergency aid—much of it for northern Ethiopia—in FY2021-FY2022. The United Nations estimates
that $3.5 billion will be required to help almost 29 million Ethiopians in need of assistance in 2023.
Ethiopian officials say reconstruction in the Tigray, Amhara, and Afar regions could cost $28 billion.
Meanwhile, Ethiopia seeks International Monetary Fund (IMF) support to restructure about $30 billion in
foreign debt and IMF emergency financing to address its hunger crisis. The World Bank has committed
$2.9 billion to Ethiopia in 2022-2023, including a $300 million grant to support reconstruction, which
some donors described at the time as premature.
Some Members may continue to press the Administration to issue a determination on whether some of the
reported war crimes and crimes against humanity in Ethiopia might constitute genocide. Members may
examine U.S. efforts to promote accountability in Syria and Ukraine as they review options for justice,
amid concerns about impunity and prospects for sustainable peace. Congress may explore avenues to
support the parties’ implementation of the agreement or ceasefire monitoring.
Members may weigh these issues alongside other U.S. priorities, including countering terrorism and
expanding U.S. business opportunities. Ethiopia’s ties with Russia, its UN voting record on Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine, and its acquisition of Iranian drones could influence deliberations. Congress may

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also consider the implications of rising violence and abuses in Ethiopia’s most populous region, Oromia,
for the country’s stability.

Author Information

Lauren Ploch Blanchard

Specialist in African Affairs

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