Colombia: Presidential Elections in 2022

Colombia: Presidential Elections in 2022

INSIGHTi

Colombia: Presidential Elections in 2022
Updated June 24, 2022
On June 19, 2022, Colombian voters elected as president former senator Gustavo Petro in a close but
decisive victory over Rodolfo Hernández, a construction magnate and one-term mayor. The runoff
garnered the highest turnout for a second round presidential vote since 1994, with Petro winning 50.5% of
the vote followed by Hernández at 47.3%. President-elect Petro is set to become Colombia’s first leftist
president and leads a coalition of left parties known as the Historic Pact. The president-elect is a longtime
leader of the political opposition and was once a member of the M-19, a leftist guerilla group that
demobilized in the late 1980s. Petro (62), successful in his third run for the presidency, is scheduled to be
inaugurated August 7. Hernández (77), as the runner-up, qualifies for a seat in the Colombian Senate,
although reportedly, he may decline it.
Colombia is the third most populous country in Latin America and a close U.S. ally. Many Members of
Congress maintain a keen interest in Colombia, particularly on issues regarding narcotics trafficking,
responses to Venezuela, trade, human rights, climate change, and the peace process with former insurgent
forces. Petro’s victory may potentially shift Colombia’s position on several of these issues.
Economic Uncertainty, Security Challenges, and a Divided Legislature
Petro’s victory unsettled markets due to concerns about his economic policies and potential to redefine
the two-decade partnership with the United States. On June 21, Petro received a congratulatory call from
President Joe Biden, which Petro characterized as “very friendly.”
Petro has advocated for the maximum implementation of a peace accord that the government signed in
2016 with Colombia’s then-largest guerrilla group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia
(FARC). His top policy objectives include bolstering institutions related to peace and reconciliation
processes; addressing unequal access to land and increasing rural inclusion; fighting poverty; and
reducing food shortages.
Colombia faces a complex security environment that poses significant challenges to the incoming
administration. Areas of concern include the 1,400-mile border with Venezuela, Colombia’s neighbor that
reportedly provides a safe haven for criminals; the expansion of the National Liberation Army (ELN),
now the largest leftist guerrilla group seeking to expand its control of illicit mining and drug trafficking;
and the increasing cocaine exports managed by an array of criminal groups, including dissidents from the
FARC peace accord.
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Petro’s economic platform proposes major changes such as reducing the nation’s dependence on
hydrocarbon exports (petroleum currently makes up half of Colombia’s export earnings), increasing taxes
on the wealthy, free higher education, and potentially updating free trade agreements, including the U.S.-
Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement. Given rising poverty levels—with just under 40% of the
population living in poverty in 2021—some observers suggest that the pace of “decarbonization” may
have to slow to increase government earnings from oil while its price is high to address fiscal deficits.
Francia Márquez, a human rights lawyer, is to be Colombia’s first Afro-Colombian vice president. Her
presence on the Historic Pact ticket may have contributed to its winning majorities in departments (states)
where marginalized Colombians live. Petro and Márquez won largely in coastal areas of the country and
in the capital city of Bogotá, where Petro served as mayor. Márquez is recognized as an environmental
activist and advocate for Colombia’s often-neglected ethnic and rural communities.
Petro and Márquez have few links to Colombia’s traditional center and center-right parties that continue
to represent many who reject their ambitious redistributive agenda in the traditionally conservative
country. Petro’s Historic Pact coalition gained seats in Colombia’s lower house and the senate in the
March legislative elections, but the coalition will struggle to build a governing majority in the 2022-2026
congress. Although Petro has allies in the legislature, reportedly he lacks skills as a coalition-builder.
Nevertheless, Petro will likely try to build a national consensus. Several analysts maintain that key
cabinet appointments by Petro will be critical for improving his ability to govern with the fragmented
legislature. The congress and courts may hinder his anti-establishment policies perceived as a significant
break with past governments. Petro has advocated for drug legalization (possibly to include cocaine),
abortion rights, engaging in new peace talks with the ELN, and normalizing relations with Venezuela.
U.S.-Colombia Relations and Outlook
Colombia has endured more than half a century of internal armed conflict, leaving over 9 million conflict
victims. Since 2000, Plan Colombia, a joint U.S.-Colombian program focused initially on
counternarcotics and later on counterterrorism, laid the foundation for an enduring security partnership
with the United States. Bipartisan support in the U.S. Congress and U.S. Administrations resulted in more
than $13 billion in U.S. foreign assistance appropriations for Plan Colombia and its successor programs.
Peace consolidation, which remains a major element of U.S. policy, has faced significant challenges.
Colombia’s current and former governments failed to assert control in rural areas when the FARC
demobilized, thus intensifying violence by armed groups. The government’s implementation of the peace
accord has lagged, according to the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies at the University of
Notre Dame, which was designated in the accord to monitor implementation.
Among other challenges likely to face the new government are the lingering economic and social effects
of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic that increased poverty and worsened inequality.
Colombia was a top recipient of U.S. vaccine and other assistance. Colombia faces some of the highest
inflation in the region, as well as the burden of hosting some two million Venezuelans who have fled their
country.
Congress may monitor changes in Colombia’s security cooperation with the United States, especially in
counternarcotics. Following two decades of close partnership, Members of Congress who have expressed
support for deepening the relationship with Colombia may consider potential effects on cooperation in
areas such as trade, response to climate change, and regional migration. In addition, Colombia has been a
strategic partner to the United States in promoting democratic governance and has worked to oppose the
authoritarian government in Venezuela. Congress may monitor changes in Colombia-Venezuela relations
under the incoming Petro administration.
For more background, see CRS Report R43813, Colombia: Background and U.S. Relations.

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Author Information

June S. Beittel

Analyst in Latin American Affairs

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