Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Implications for Global Food Prices and Food Security

Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Implications for Global Food Prices and Food Security

INSIGHTi

Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Implications for
Global Food Prices and Food Security
May 2, 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has impacts on global food security. Since February 24, 2022, a
humanitarian and economic crisis has unfolded in Ukraine, limiting Ukrainian exports of food and
agricultural commodities, and affecting millions of people in Ukraine and the region, including more than
12 million recently displaced (roughly a quarter of the population of Ukraine). In addition, in response to
the invasion, the United States and other countries have imposed financial and trade sanctions on Russia,
further affecting international trade patterns. Because Ukraine and Russia are among the world’s leading
exporters of certain food staples used in many countries, the effects of such disruptions on global food
security are becoming apparent.
For more information on
 the humanitarian crisis, see CRS Insight IN11882, Humanitarian and Refugee Crisis in
Ukraine;
 agricultural trade and production, see CRS Insight IN11894, Russia’s Invasion of
Ukraine: Implications for Agricultural Trade and Production; and
 sanctions, see CRS Insight IN11869, Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Overview of U.S.
Sanctions and Other Responses, and CRS Insight IN11871, Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine:
New Financial and Trade Sanctions.
Context and Current Status
Emergency Food Insecurity. In March 2022, to help meet domestic food needs, Ukraine banned exports
of grain and other food products. Stalled exports of Ukraine’s current agricultural commodity stores,
disruptions in the April planting season, and a reported prioritization of planting autumn harvest crops for
domestic food use are expected to have immediate and potentially longer-term agricultural implications,
including for future harvests and livestock production. Although the U.N. World Food Program (WFP)
and other humanitarian organizations are scaling up emergency food assistance operations in Ukraine and
the region, access is limited within the country and food shortages are becoming evident with an
estimated 18 million people suffering food insecurity.
Congressional Research Service
https://crsreports.congress.gov
IN11919
CRS INSIGHT
Prepared for Members and
Committees of Congress

Congressional Research Service
2
Global Food Imports. Russia and Ukraine are low-cost producers of wheat, and in typical years are
responsible for approximately 30% of global wheat exports. Many low- and middle-income countries in
the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa rely on imported wheat from Russia
and Ukraine to meet domestic food security needs. Some countries may replace disrupted Russian and
Ukrainian wheat imports with higher priced wheat imports from other exporters. Others may choose to
replace relatively higher priced wheat with less expensive commodities such as rice. Countries that
subsidize supplies of wheat, flour, and other higher-priced food commodities for their populations may
see a reduced ability to pay for those commodities. Governments with food surpluses may consider
options to make more agricultural commodities available for food use.
Global Food Prices. Since 2020, monthly average global food prices have been generally higher than in
prior years for a variety of reasons, including the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic,
drought conditions affecting agricultural production in various countries, and export bans on certain food
commodities. After the Russian invasion, global food prices increased to record high levels and additional
countries imposed export restrictions on food commodities. Higher food prices and export restrictions
reduce the availability and affordability of food for most consumers, with the most severe impacts for
low-income consumers.
Many experts are concerned that increased food prices as a result of the invasion could further erode food
security—specifically food availability and affordability worldwide—for millions of vulnerable people.
Countries grappling with humanitarian crises (and with populations already at risk of widespread food
insecurity) are particularly vulnerable to the daily impacts of reduced food availability and price shocks.
WFP reports that 811 million people were already facing hunger at the end of 2021 (with 276 million of
these facing acute hunger, an increase of more than twofold from 2019), and 44 million people in 38
countries were at risk of famine. Pandemic-related food supply chain issues, shortages, and price
increases, as well as ongoing conflict, environmental change and natural disasters, and deepening poverty,
have all contributed to food insecurity worldwide.
Key Policy Issues for Food Assistance
Global Emergency Food Operations. Prior to the Russian invasion, Ukraine was the largest single
source of food for WFP, the world’s largest humanitarian organization focused on hunger and food
security. With production and export disruptions from the region, global food prices have increased. This
may affect WFP global operations due to procurement challenges and delays, and as food becomes more
expensive to purchase elsewhere. A simultaneous global surge in energy prices is also expected to
increase WFP transport costs. In the short term, the disruptions from the Ukraine conflict are anticipated
to extend most acutely to countries in the Middle East and Africa (such as Ethiopia, Lebanon, Syria, and
Yemen), which rely heavily on food imports from Ukraine and Russia, and where WFP has reduced
rations as part of its cost-cutting measures. On April 27, 2022, USDA and USAID announced they intend
to provide $670 million in food assistance funding to support existing emergency food operations in
Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, and Yemen. USAID is to draw down the full $282 million
in the Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust, and USDA is to provide $388 million from the Commodity
Credit Corporation. On April 28, the Biden Administration requested $33 billion in additional support for
Ukraine, of which $3 billion would respond to humanitarian needs, including global food insecurity
among vulnerable populations. The United States and other WFP contributors may consider whether to
provide additional resources to maintain food assistance levels as costs rise or reprioritize existing
resources.
Development Food Assistance. Rising food prices, the rise in oil prices, and trade disruptions affecting
the Eurasian region may also affect development assistance programs intended to prevent food insecurity
over time. These developments may occur simultaneously, with a potential increase in the number of
people in need of food assistance. Increased costs for food and fuel are likely to affect households’ ability

Congressional Research Service
3
to purchase food, particularly in lower-income countries, which may move those households who were
marginally food secure prior to the increase in prices into a state of food insecurity. Resources once
focused on longer-term food security through investments in agricultural development or nutrition
education, for example, may be diverted to meet emergency needs, with long-term consequences. Food
aid and commodity sales also directly support some development programs, whose capacity may be
reduced by increased food and fuel costs.
Potential Issues for Congress
Congress may consider a number of policy options in response to increasing food prices and rising global
food insecurity, including
 conducting regular oversight of emergency food assistance activities, including by
monitoring how the executive branch allocates food assistance appropriated by Congress,
and assessing whether such activities are sufficient to meet increasing needs and U.S.
foreign policy objectives;
 considering the global food security implications of the wide range of U.S. responses to
the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and how and if responses can be calibrated to reduce food
security impacts;
 engaging with the Biden Administration to reduce supply limitations and global trade
barriers for food and agricultural commodities; and
 considering ways in which the United States could increase support to governments in
lower-income countries to help address growing food insecurity.

Author Information

Rhoda Margesson
Amber D. Nair
Specialist in International Humanitarian Policy
Analyst in Agricultural Policy

Emily M. Morgenstern
Stephanie Rosch
Analyst in Foreign Assistance and Foreign Policy
Analyst in Agricultural Policy

Disclaimer
This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan shared staff
to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and under the direction of
Congress. Information in a CRS Report should not be relied upon for purposes other than public understanding of
information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in connection with CRS’s institutional role.
CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not subject to copyright protection in the United
States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety without permission from CRS. However,
as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or material from a third party, you may need to obtain the
permission of the copyright holder if you wish to copy or otherwise use copyrighted material.

Congressional Research Service
4

IN11919 · VERSION 1 · NEW