Presidential Succession in Turkmenistan: Issues for Congress

Presidential Succession in Turkmenistan: Issues for Congress

INSIGHTi

Presidential Succession in Turkmenistan:
Issues for Congress
March 29, 2022
Overview
Turkmenistan, an authoritarian country rich in hydrocarbons that borders Iran, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan,
Kazakhstan, and the Caspian Sea, held a snap presidential election on March 12, 2022. Serdar
Berdimuhamedov, son of incumbent President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, won with a reported 73%
of the vote and was inaugurated on March 19. Analysts had long speculated that Serdar was being
positioned by his father to succeed to the presidency. The younger Berdimuhamedov was elected to
parliament in 2016 and went on to hold a number of increasingly senior government positions. In
September 2021 he turned 40, the minimum age for presidential candidates. Despite rumors about
Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov’s health, analysts were surprised by the timing of the election. Some
speculate that it may have been motivated by January unrest in neighboring Kazakhstan, while others
emphasize that it was the culmination of a long-term process rather than a “knee-jerk reaction.”
According to longtime observers, “it is difficult to describe what is occurring as a transition in any real
sense.” Some analysts interpret the fact that Serdar won with 73% of the vote, as compared to his father’s
electoral victories of 89% in 2007 and over 97% in 2012 and 2017, as evidently intended for “Serdar not
to eclipse Gurbanguly.” The elder Berdimuhamedov remains chair of the upper house of parliament,
although it is unclear how active he will be politically. Some speculate that the entrenchment of both
father and son within Turkmenistan’s power structures may be a source of political instability.
The country’s Central Election Commissions claimed voter turnout exceeded 97%. The Organization for
Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) did not send an election observation mission, citing
Turkmenistan’s failure to address previous OSCE recommendations—particularly those related to
political pluralism and fundamental human rights—in addition to time constraints related to
Turkmenistan’s pandemic mitigation measures. No election in Turkmenistan has been deemed free and
fair by OSCE observers since the country became independent in 1991.
The elder Berdimuhamedov, 64, assumed power after the 2006 death of Turkmenistan’s first president.
Like his predecessor, Berdimuhamedov created a cult of personality around himself, isolated the country,
and suppressed dissent, reportedly embezzling billions of dollars in state revenues. Although his current
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term was not set to expire until 2024, Berdimuhamedov announced in February that it was time for the
country to transfer power to “young leaders.” Nine candidates registered to run in the snap election, but
none was seen as serious competition for Serdar Berdimuhamedov.
Background
Executive power in Turkmenistan is largely unchecked. The president has extensive powers, including
presiding over the Cabinet of Ministers and appointing and dismissing judges and regional governors.
Observers have termed the bicameral legislature a “rubber-stamp body.” Although Turkmenistan has three
officially recognized political parties, the OSCE describes the country’s political environment as “only
nominally pluralist,” as all three parties are aligned with the president and electoral procedures fail to
meet international standards.
Freedom House ranks Turkmenistan as one of the least free countries in the world, describing it as “a
repressive authoritarian state where political rights and civil liberties are almost completely denied in
practice.” Citizens are reportedly subject to widespread surveillance, arbitrary arrest and detention, and
torture. The State Department describes corruption in Turkmenistan as rampant. Because of its violations
of religious freedom, Turkmenistan has been designated as a Country of Particular Concern (CPC) under
the International Religious Freedom Act (IRFA) since 2014.
Outlook and Issues for Congress
Turkmenistan’s geography and energy resources make it a potential strategic partner for the United States,
but the development of U.S.-Turkmenistan ties is hampered by the country’s uninviting investment
climate, repressive government, and generally closed nature. Bilateral engagement to date has focused
largely on regional security issues, particularly issues related to Afghanistan. Turkmenistan’s constitution
outlines the principle of “permanent neutrality” as the basis for the country’s foreign policy. In practice,
this principle translates to foreign policy isolationism.
Analysts expect any reforms undertaken by Serdar to be cosmetic, and his rule to be geared toward
regime preservation and maintaining Turkmenistan’s authoritarian kleptocracy. Nevertheless, the
country’s leadership transition coincides with significant economic and regional instability, raising the
question of expanding bilateral engagement. For example, Congress may wish to consider how increased
engagement with Ashgabat could address regional security issues related to neighboring Afghanistan.
Although Turkmenistan has adopted a pragmatic approach to the Taliban, security concerns persist along
the countries’ shared border. Turkmen forces reportedly exchanged fire with Taliban troops in January.
Turkmenistan’s economy is in a deep crisis that may be exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,
particularly if Russia redirects its natural gas exports to China, the main buyer of Turkmenistan’s gas.
Turkmenistan holds the world’s fourth-largest natural gas reserves, and gas is the country’s primary
export and source of foreign exchange. Congress may wish to consider how engaging with
Turkmenistan—and Central Asia more broadly—could help reduce U.S. partners’ energy dependence on
Russia. Some analysts see Turkmenistan as a potential alternative to Russia as a gas supplier; the
proposed Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline would enable Turkmenistan to supply gas to European markets, but
has been hampered by opposition from Russia and Iran, as well as unresolved questions concerning
Caspian seabed rights. The planned Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline, first
proposed in the 1990s, would open new markets for Turkmenistan and improve South Asia’s energy
security, but its completion remains highly speculative.
Some Members of Congress have drawn attention to human rights concerns in Turkmenistan, including
wrongful imprisonment and press censorship; analysts assess that these conditions are unlikely to

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improve, and they may hinder bilateral cooperation. While Turkmenistan has been designated as a CPC
under IRFA since 2014, the State Department regularly waives the related sanctions, citing U.S. national
interests. In its 2021 Annual Report, the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF)
recommends that the State Department lift the sanctions waiver, given the country’s record of severe and
wide-ranging violations of religious freedom. USCIRF additionally recommends that the U.S.
government limit security assistance to the country under IRFA Section 405(a)(22) and impose targeted
sanctions.

Author Information

Maria A. Blackwood

Analyst in Asian Policy

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