India’s 2022 State Elections: A Preview

India’s 2022 State Elections: A Preview

INSIGHTi

India’s 2022 State Elections: A Preview
February 21, 2022
Overview
Some Members of Congress express concern about the state of Indian democracy and human rights. Five
of India’s 28 states are conducting elections to seat state legislators to five-year terms; results are to be
announced on March 10. The outcomes may provide indications of the current strength of Prime Minister
Narendra Modi’s national-ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ahead of national elections scheduled for
early 2024. State assemblies elect state government heads, known as chief ministers (CMs). BJP CMs are
incumbent in the bellwether state of Uttar Pradesh (UP, population 200 million), as well as in Uttarakhand
(11 million), Manipur (3 million), and Goa (1.5 million); of the five, only Punjab (30 million) has an
incumbent non-BJP CM, a member of the Indian National Congress Party (or “Congress”).
These elections are widely seen as a referendum on the BJP’s performance after it won national reelection
in 2019. Analysts contend that a BJP defeat in any of the four states it controls—especially UP—would
suggest public dissatisfaction is growing in response to India’s sluggish economic growth, high
unemployment, proposed changes to farm and citizenship laws, and the government’s handling of the
Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic, and would thus be a blow to the BJP. Meanwhile, failure by
the Congress Party to prevail in any of the five elections—especially in Punjab—could threaten the once-
dominant, but now declining party’s future as a national political force. (For more on India’s domestic
politics, see IF10298.)
Uttar Pradesh
UP is India’s most populous state and prize electoral jewel. The BJP won convincingly there in both 2017
state-level and 2019 national elections with an overt “Hindu first” agenda that marginalized Muslims,
who account for one-fifth of UP’s population. CM Yogi Adityanath, a Hindu monk and hardline Hindu
nationalist hand-picked for the job by Modi in 2017, leads a state party that appears to be campaigning
mainly on religious and caste issues. Polls show this may be a winning approach, despite reports that
voters say they are more focused on unemployment and inflation. The main contenders to unseat the BJP
are the regionally powerful, caste-based Samajwadi Party led by Akhilesh Yadav (CM from 2012 to 2017)
and the Bahujan Samaj Party. In 2017, the BJP won nearly 40% of votes and 77% of assembly seats
without fielding a Muslim candidate.
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The BJP’s performance in UP could be a key test of the party’s popularity headed into 2024 national
elections. Anti-incumbency sentiments typically are strong in the state, so even a close BJP reelection
would be seen as solidifying the party’s state dominance and bolstering its national standing, as well as
positioning Adityanath as a leading contender to eventually succeed Modi as prime minister. Conversely,
a BJP loss likely would damage Modi’s popularity nationally, cast doubt on Adityanath’s political
aspirations, and make the 2024 elections more competitive for opposition parties.
Punjab
Punjab is India’s only Sikh-majority state. The fertile agrarian state was instrumental in the farmers’
protest movement that shook the national capital and Indian politics for most of 2021. Modi’s rare
political retreat on the controversial farms laws in late 2021 may have been partly motivated by electoral
considerations, but a strong BJP showing is considered unlikely in Punjab. The party has a limited
footprint and diminished prospects there due to what was seen as the national government’s heavy-handed
response to the protests. Unemployment is a major issue in the current campaign. The Congress Party
displaced an alliance of the BJP and regional powerhouse Shiromani Akali Dal in 2017, but the state’s
employment woes have increased, providing an opening for the anti-corruption-oriented Aam Aadmi
Party, as well as for newcomer Sanyukt Samaj Morcha, a coalition of farmers’ unions that emerged from
the protests. Analysts are watching to see if that social movement can become a new electoral force.
Meanwhile, the incumbent Congress has struggled with internal disarray—former CM Amarinder Singh
quit the party in late 2021 and aligned with the BJP—and Congress’s waning national fortunes would
suffer a major blow with the loss of Punjab.
Congressional Interest
Since 2005, successive U.S. Administrations have pursued a strategic partnership with India; in
September 2021, the two countries’ leaders asserted that “strengthening democratic values and
institutions” was central to the vision guiding the partnership. Numerous assessments of the status of
Indian democracy have concluded that, under the Modi/BJP government, there has been significant
“backsliding,” with India being driven “toward authoritarianism,” in large part due to Hindu nationalist
policies that marginalize and persecute the country’s large Muslim minority, as well as Christians and
other religious minorities (80% of Indians are Hindus). Hate speech and disinformation increasingly are
deployed in civic spaces, and activists and analysts criticize Indian leaders for failing to condemn
incitements to violence. The State Department documents extensive human rights and religious freedom
problems in India, as do independent watchdogs, who note intensified crackdowns on journalists and the
free press, NGOs, artists, and perceived government critics, and the use of anti-terrorism laws to squelch
dissent.
The Biden Administration has identified India as a key partner in its Indo-Pacific Strategy, and has
prioritized cooperation with the democracies of “the Quad,” including India, and some Members of
Congress have welcomed such a strategy. Some analysts suggest that the United States has remained
largely silent about India’s perceived democratic decline due to “pragmatic” considerations about
balancing against China; one argues that such “pragmatism ... has badly affected the credibility of the
Western commitment to democracy.” Another contends that illiberalism and further democratic erosion
will “make India a less powerful and predictable international actor, and would reduce its capacity for
reassurance and building partnerships with other states, including the U.S.” A repeat victory by the Hindu
nationalist BJP in UP’s state election and significant electoral failures by opposition parties likely would
empower the BJP in ways that could continue—and potentially accelerate—the negative trends in India’s
democracy and human rights setting. Some Members of Congress have in the recent past expressed
concerns about these trends and their implications for U.S. interests.

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Author Information

K. Alan Kronstadt

Specialist in South Asian Affairs

Disclaimer
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