Germany’s September 26 Elections

Germany’s September 26 Elections

INSIGHTi

Germany’s September 26 Elections
Updated September 29, 2021
Merkel Era Ends, Successor Unclear
None of the candidates to succeed Chancellor Angela Merkel won a clear governing mandate in
Germany’s September 26, 2021, parliamentary elections. The center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD),
which has been Merkel’s junior coalition partner for 12 of her 16 years in office, beat Merkel’s center-
right political group by 1.6 percentage points, but neither party exceeded 26% of the vote.
Merkel, who was not a candidate in the elections, is to remain chancellor during what some analysts
expect could be protracted negotiations to form a new government. Merkel’s likely successors have
pledged continuity in German foreign policy and relations with the United States, but the end of the
Merkel era—and her legacy of global leadership—could have important implications for U.S.-German
and U.S.-European relations. Areas of particular concern for Congress could include Germany’s policies
toward Russia, China, and NATO.
Merkel’s tenure has been viewed as a period of remarkable stability and economic prosperity in Germany.
The country’s broader political landscape arguably has become more fractured during her time in office,
however, as Germany’s two main political parties—the SPD and Merkel’s center-right Christian
Democratic Union (CDU)—have lost support to smaller parties on both sides of the political spectrum.
Election Results
On September 26, voters elected representatives to Germany’s lower house of parliament, the Bundestag,
which in turn will elect the next head of government, or chancellor. Political parties must surpass a 5%
vote threshold to hold seats in parliament. Germany’s multiparty system leads to governing coalitions;
only once since 1949 has a single party won the absolute majority necessary to elect a chancellor and
legislate on its own. The results of the September 26 elections suggest the next government could be the
first coalition of more than two parties since 1957:
 Social Democratic Party (SPD), 25.7% (compared with 20.5% in the 2017 election).
After finishing second to the CDU in the past four Bundestag elections, the SPD enjoyed
a late resurgence in the campaign, buoyed by the popularity of its centrist candidate for
chancellor, Olaf Scholz, currently Germany’s finance minister.
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 Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), 24.1% (32.9% in
2017). The result was a record low for the center-right grouping of the CDU and its more
conservative Bavarian sister party as their candidate for chancellor, regional governor
Armin Laschet, failed to gain traction among voters.
 The Greens, 14.8% (8.9% in 2017). The result was a marked improvement over the
2017 elections but fell short of opinion polls in the summer that suggested the party could
exceed 20%. Some analysts attributed the drop in popularity to concerns about the lack of
governing experience of its candidate for chancellor, Annalena Baerbock. Given the
broad appeal of the party’s environmental and free market-oriented platform, it is
considered a potential coalition partner for either the SPD or the CDU/CSU.
 Free Democratic Party (FDP), 11.5% (10.7% in 2017). The business-oriented, socially
liberal party traditionally has been a coalition partner of the CDU/CSU. Although it has
governed with the SPD in the past, the FDP’s fiscal conservatism and support for tax cuts
could complicate potential coalitions with the SPD and the Greens.
 Alternative for Germany (AfD), 10.3% (12.6% in 2017). The far-right, anti-immigrant
party lost seats after first entering parliament in 2017 but retains strong support in some
parts of eastern Germany. All other parties have ruled out cooperation with AfD.
 The Left, 4.9% (9.2% in 2017). The result was a disappointment for the far-left
outgrowth of East Germany’s former communist party, which will remain in parliament
because three directly elected candidates take it over the necessary 5% vote threshold.
Both the SPD’s Olaf Scholz and the CDU’s Armin Laschet have said the election results entitle them to
lead the next government. Although most observers expect Scholz to prevail given his party’s first-place
finish, Laschet underscores the SPD’s small margin of victory and both parties’ historically low vote
totals. Both say they will seek to govern with the Greens and the FDP. Differences between the two
smaller parties, especially on fiscal policy—the FDP opposes Green and SPD proposals for new taxes—
could be key issues in coalition negotiations. Should negotiations for a three-party coalition fail, the SPD
and CDU/CSU could agree to govern in a “grand coalition.”
Implications for the United States
The two leading candidates to succeed Merkel have pledged continuity in foreign affairs and in relations
with the United States, though their parties have differences on some key issues. Like Merkel, Scholz and
Laschet may be reluctant to endorse a framework of “great power” competition between the West and
China and Russia. Although they have condemned some Chinese and Russian policies, both stress the
importance of continued engagement and are wary of jeopardizing economic relations.
Of the top parties, the Greens advocate the biggest break from Merkel’s foreign policy, calling, for
example, for more concerted German and international responses to Russian aggression and Chinese
human rights violations and opposing Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany.
 Russia. Scholz and Laschet say they support EU sectoral sanctions on Russia and
continued German support for Ukraine. Although neither has opposed Nord Stream 2,
both say they will uphold Germany’s commitment to take action against Russia,
including possible sanctions, if Moscow uses its energy resources as a weapon. In
general, the SPD is considered more open to engagement with Russia than the CDU.
 China. Germany has faced heightened pressure from the United States to take a harder
line on China, though there remains considerable support in Germany for a policy that
emphasizes dialogue and seeks to avoid taking sides in U.S.-China disputes.

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 NATO and Defense Spending. Germany has faced calls from successive U.S.
Administrations to increase defense spending to meet NATO’s benchmark of 2% of gross
domestic product (GDP). Although the CDU has remained committed to the NATO
target—spending rose from 1.4% of GDP in 2020 to 1.6% of GDP in 2021—SPD leaders
have been more reluctant, arguing that the target does not accurately measure Germany’s
broader contributions to global security.

Author Information

Paul Belkin

Analyst in European Affairs

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