Federal Debt Levels on Presidential Inauguration Days

Federal Debt Levels on Presidential Inauguration Days

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INSIGHTi

Federal Debt Levels on Presidential
Inauguration Days
September 15, 2021
This Insight presents data on federal debt on or near Inauguration Days since 1961 taken from U.S.
Treasury statements. Table 1 presents current-dollar debt levels. Table 2 presents inflation-adjusted debt
levels. Finally, Table 3 presents debt as a proportion of the U.S. economy. Levels for August 2, 2021, the
first business day after the most recent reset of the debt limit, and September 14, 2021, the date of the
most recent Daily Treasury Statement, are also included.
Congress and the President share responsibility for fiscal policy. Changes in Administration take time to
translate into fiscal outcomes. When a President takes office, budgetary decisions for that fiscal year are
normally already decided, although executive orders and other actions may alter fiscal outcomes. While
Presidents normally submit budgets in February, Presidents in their first year typically take more time to
develop budget proposals. New programs also take time to implement. Both Congress and Presidents are
also constrained by economic conditions and long-term trends in revenues and mandatory spending. The
state of the economy, which affects spending and revenues, differs for each Inauguration Day and more
generally, differs over the course of each Administration. Costs of responding to natural disasters, security
challenges, and financial crises can also have major fiscal consequences. Experiences of many advanced
countries suggest that public debt levels typically rise after financial crises.
Table 1 presents several standard measures of federal debt levels on Inauguration Days or the closest end-
of-month total (where Inauguration Day data are not available) since the inauguration of President John F.
Kennedy in January 1961. The format of Treasury statements has changed over time as budget concepts
and public financing operations have evolved, which complicates some comparisons. In particular, for
earlier years, intragovernmental debt totals are proxied either by totals for Treasury’s Government
Account Series or totals for special issue Treasury securities held by various federal trust funds. The
Treasury holds intergovernmental debt on behalf of other parts of the federal government, such as Social
Security. Some amounts needed to reconcile Table 1 figures, such as debt not subject to limit, are not
reported.
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Table 1. Federal Debt Levels on or near Inauguration Days Since 1961
Millions of current dollars
Total public debt
Debt held by
Public debt
Date
outstanding
public
Intragovernmental
subject to limit
January 31, 1961
290,035
246,211
43,824
289,796
November 29, 1963
308,215
264662
43,553
308,567
January 29, 1965
317,940
273,705
44,235
318,360
January 31, 1969
359,412
299,653
59,759
362,630
January 31, 1973
450,068
355,030
95,038
451,386
July 31, 1974
475,345
359,828
115,517
475,610
January 31, 1977
653,907
527,097
126,810
653,295
January 31, 1981
934,073
751,876
182,197
933,466
January 31, 1985
1,679,313
1,388,786
290,527
1,680,616
January 31, 1989
2,697,957
2,100,867
597,090
2,682,666
January 31, 1993
4,167,200
3,109,138
1,058,062
4,075,891
January 31, 1997
5,313,997
3,799,546
1,514,451
5,227,348
January 19, 2001
5,727,777
3,394,954
2,332,823
5,646,016
January 31, 2001
5,716,071
3,388,016
2,328,055
5,636,231
January 20, 2005
7,613,216
4,421,475
3,191,741
7,552,379
January 31, 2005
7,627,743
4,428,221
3,199,522
7,567,702
January 20, 2009
10,626,877
6,307,311
4,319,566
10,568,142
January 31, 2009
10,632,005
6,317,224
4,314,781
10,569,235
January 21, 2013
16,432,619
11,573,119
4,859,500
16,393,975
January 20, 2017
19,947,305
14,403,704
5,543,600
19,909,554
January 20, 2021
27,751,896
21,636,824
6,115,072
27,725,725
August 2, 2021
28,401,437
22,293,275
6,134,423
28,401,437
September 14, 2021
28,427,244
22,289,670
6,133,982
28,401,438
Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Statement, various dates. Data for 1974-1997 taken from Monthly Treasury
Statements. Intragovernmental debt proxied by Government Account Series or special issues totals for years before 2000.
Total debt exceeds debt subject to limit for some of the 1960s and 1970s due to the use of participation certificates.

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Table 2 presents federal debt data adjusted for inflation using the gross domestic product (GDP) price
index, the broadest measure of the U.S. price level.
Table 2. Inflation-Adjusted Federal Debt Levels on or near Inauguration Days Since 1961
Millions of first quarter calendar 2021 dollars
Total public
GDP Price
debt
Debt held by
Intra-
Public debt
Index
Date
outstanding
public
governmental
subject to limit
(Qtr)
January 31, 1961
2,005,468
1,702,444
303,024
2,003,815
16.751
November 29, 1963
2,063,544
1,771,950
291,594
2,065,901
17.300
January 29, 1965
2,086,088
1,795,851
290,238
2,088,844
17.653
January 31, 1969
2,064,226
1,721,010
343,216
2,082,709
20.167
January 31, 1973
2,136,808
1,685,592
451,216
2,143,066
24.396
July 31, 1974
1,991,871
1,507,812
484,059
1,992,982
27.641
January 31, 1977
2,318,459
1,868,848
449,611
2,316,290
32.668
January 31, 1981
2,405,932
1,936,639
469,293
2,404,368
44.968
January 31, 1985
3,599,269
2,976,583
622,686
3,602,062
54.041
January 31, 1989
5,164,500
4,021,535
1,142,965
5,135,230
60.508
January 31, 1993
7,067,119
5,272,761
1,794,358
6,912,269
68.298
January 31, 1997
8,323,628
5,951,454
2,372,174
8,187,905
73.946
January 19, 2001
8,373,096
4,962,881
3,410,215
8,253,574
79.233
January 31, 2001
8,355,983
4,952,739
3,403,245
8,239,270
79.233
January 20, 2005
10,202,573
5,925,278
4,277,295
10,121,044
86.430
January 31, 2005
10,222,041
5,934,318
4,287,722
10,141,579
86.430
January 20, 2009
12,956,376
7,689,925
5,266,450
12,884,766
17,991
January 31, 2009
12,962,628
7,702,011
5,260,616
12,886,098
95.001
January 21, 2013
18,821,689
13,255,687
5,566,003
18,777,427
101.124
January 20, 2017
21,591,266
15,590,788
6,000,477
21,550,403
107.007
January 20, 2021
27,751,896
21,636,824
6,115,072
27,725,725
115.826
August 2, 2021
27,985,613
21,966,880
6,044,609
27,985,613
117.547
September 14, 2021
28,011,039
21,956,674
6,054,365
27,985,614
117.547
Source: See source notes for Table 1. Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Account data, Table
1.1.4. GDP price index base year is 2012. Adjusted levels then multiplied by first quarter calendar 2021 price index
(115.826). For last two rows, levels are multiplied by first quarter 2021 index and divided by second quarter 2021 index.

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Table 3 presents the same federal debt data as a percentage of GDP, a measure of the value of all goods
and services produced in the United States. Dividing debt by GDP in effect adjusts for inflation and rising
per-capita real income. Federal debt as a share of GDP generally trended downward after World War II
ended in 1945 until about 1980. Since then, that share has risen, aside from a brief interval in the late
1990s. Interest rates on that debt, however, have trended downward since the mid-1980s.
Table 3. Federal Debt Levels on or near Inauguration Days Since 1961 as % of GDP
Total public
Public debt
debt
Debt held
Intra-
subject to
GDP
Date
outstanding
by public
governmental
limit
($billions)
January 31, 1961
46.7%
39.6%
7.0%
46.6%
622
November 29, 1963
39.9%
34.3%
5.6%
40.0%
772
January 29, 1965
37.7%
32.4%
5.2%
37.7%
844
January 31, 1969
31.7%
26.4%
5.3%
31.9%
1,135
January 31, 1973
27.8%
22.0%
5.9%
27.9%
1,616
July 31, 1974
25.2%
19.1%
6.1%
25.2%
1,887
January 31, 1977
25.9%
20.9%
5.0%
25.9%
2,527
January 31, 1981
26.9%
21.6%
5.2%
26.9%
3,473
January 31, 1985
35.6%
29.4%
6.2%
35.6%
4,722
January 31, 1989
44.7%
34.8%
9.9%
44.5%
6,035
January 31, 1993
55.4%
41.3%
14.1%
54.2%
7,522
January 31, 1997
56.5%
40.4%
16.1%
55.5%
9,412
January 19, 2001
51.3%
30.4%
20.9%
50.5%
January 31, 2001
51.2%
30.3%
20.8%
50.4%
11,174
January 20, 2005
59.6%
34.6%
25.0%
59.2%

January 31, 2005
59.7%
34.7%
25.1%
59.3%
12,767
January 20, 2009
69.2%
41.1%
28.1%
68.8%
January 31, 2009
69.3%
41.2%
28.1%
68.8%
15,351
January 21, 2013
91.3%
64.3%
27.0%
91.1%
17,991
January 20, 2017
95.0%
68.6%
26.4%
94.8%
21,002
January 20, 2021
125.9%
98.2%
27.7%
125.8%
22,038
August 2, 2021
124.9%
98.1%
27.0%
124.9%
22,731
September 13, 2021
125.1%
98.0%
27.0%
124.9%
22,731
Source: See source notes for Table 1. Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Account data, Table
1.1.5. Second quarter calendar 2021 GDP estimate used for last two rows.

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Author Information

D. Andrew Austin

Analyst in Economic Policy

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