Côte d’Ivoire’s October 2020 Presidential Elections

Côte d’Ivoire’s October 2020 Presidential Elections

INSIGHTi

Côte d’Ivoire’s October 2020 Presidential
Elections
August 11, 2020
On August 6, President Alassane Ouattara (WAH-tah-rah) of Côte d’Ivoire declared that he would run for
a third term in presidential elections scheduled for October 31. The announcement confirmed weeks of
speculation that Ouattara would seek reelection following the death, on July 8, of his prime minister and
favored successor. Ouattara, who had toyed with running before pledging in March to step down at the
end of his second term, has won praise for presiding over general stability and rapid economic growth
since taking power in 2011 following a protracted political crisis that ended in a brief civil war. Analysts
warn that his decision to vie for a third term, which the opposition considers unconstitutional, could
reopen societal cleavages in a country that has never seen a peaceful electoral transfer of power.
The forthcoming elections may have implications for U.S. interests in Côte d’Ivoire, which partly center
on supporting “a democratic government whose legitimacy can be accepted by all,” according to the State
Department. Some Members of Congress may also consider Ouattara’s decision to run for reelection in
the context of eroding respect for presidential term limits and broader democratic backsliding across West
Africa—a region that previously led the continent in the advancement of democratic principles but has
recently recorded rapid declines in civil liberties trends. (Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs
Tibor Nagy had lauded Ouattara’s initial decision to forego a third-term bid, stating via Twitter that his
“commitment to democratic norms sets an example far beyond Côte d’Ivoire.”) In this regard, Ouattara’s
candidacy resembles recent moves by Guinea’s President Alpha Condé; both leaders assert that
constitutional revisions reset the clock on term limits, enabling a third consecutive term.
Whether possible political turmoil might affect U.S. assistance to Côte d’Ivoire, including nascent
counterterrorism support, is another potential consideration for U.S. policymakers. U.S. aid largely seeks
to combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other health challenges, promote accountable governance, and help
professionalize the military. Côte d’Ivoire also is a focus country of U.S.-backed efforts to end child labor
in the cocoa industry. An ongoing $524.7 million Millennium Challenge Corporation compact focuses on
education and infrastructure.
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Figure 1. Côte d’Ivoire

Source: CRS graphic with data from the State Department and ESRI.
Background and the 2002-2011 Crisis
Côte d’Ivoire experienced decades of stability and prosperity after gaining independence from France in
1960. Yet simmering ethno-regional tensions erupted in the 1990s, predicated in large part on southern
Ivoirians’ resistance to perceived marginalization by northerners and immigrants from neighboring
countries who migrated to the fertile south in search of work. Many southerners are Christian or follow
indigenous religions, while many (but not all) northerners and migrant workers are Muslim. In 2002, a
military mutiny by northern soldiers evolved into an attempt to unseat then-president Laurent Gbagbo
(BAHG-boh), a southerner. Rebels seized the country’s north, instituting a parallel state. International
mediation efforts produced a series of peace accords, and French troops and U.N. peacekeepers deployed
to uphold a ceasefire. In 2010, Ouattara, an economist and former prime minister, defeated the incumbent
Gbagbo in an election intended to end the crisis. The U.N. certified the result and the international
community, including the United States, recognized Ouattara’s win, but Gbagbo refused to step down.
The stand-off spurred months of unrest and violence along ethno-political lines in which an estimated
3,000 people died. The conflict ended in April 2011, when northern rebels, aided by French and U.N.
troops, arrested Gbagbo. Ivorian authorities transferred Gbagbo to the International Criminal Court (ICC)
on charges of crimes against humanity, but he was acquitted in early 2019 and appears intent on returning
to Côte d’Ivoire, pending an appeal by the ICC Prosecutor.
The 2020 Elections: Context and Prospects
The post-crisis period has been generally stable, buoyed by average annual GDP growth of 8.3% between
2012 and 2019. The government has taken steps to restore security, strengthen state institutions, and
reform the security sector. Ouattara’s reelection in 2015, the adoption of a new constitution in a 2016
referendum, and credible legislative polls later that year raised hopes for a consolidation of democratic

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progress. During Ouattara’s presidency, successive U.S. Administrations have viewed the country as a
development partner and a pillar of democracy and stability in a region beset by Islamist extremism and
democratic backsliding.
Political and regional fissures have persisted, however, and tensions have mounted since 2018 amid the
disintegration of a political coalition uniting Ouattara with longtime rival and former president Henri
Konan Bédié. Local elections in 2018 featured pockets of violence and several deaths; in 2019, an ethno-
political dispute in the central town of Béoumi killed 14 people. Analysts have warned of a risk of larger
scale violence surrounding the October polls. The opposition disputes the constitutionality of Ouattara’s
candidacy, which Bédié and other leaders have vowed to reject, as well as the independence of the
national electoral commission, a key source of tension. Critics also accuse Ouattara of using the justice
system to sideline rivals. Ivoirian courts have convicted in absentia two opposition leaders: former
president Gbagbo (for economic crimes) and former rebel leader Guillaume Soro (for embezzlement);
both are now in exile and could face arrest should they return to the country. Authorities have arrested
several other opposition figures, prompting human rights groups to express concern over due process.
Security conditions have improved since 2011, but intercommunal conflicts over access to land persist,
and often overlap with local ethno-political tensions. Security force indiscipline is another concern: ex-
rebels integrated into the military since 2011 have staged repeated mutinies, and former rebel leaders
(including Soro) reportedly retain influence and oversee parallel chains of command over their erstwhile
rank-and-file. Meanwhile, two mass-casualty attacks by armed Islamists—a 2016 massacre at a beach
resort that killed 19, and a June 2020 raid along the northern border with Burkina Faso that killed 12
security personnel—have heightened fears about Côte d’Ivoire’s vulnerability to extremism.

Author Information

Tomas F. Husted

Analyst in African Affairs

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