The Nile Dam Dispute: Issues for Congress

The Nile Dam Dispute: Issues for Congress

INSIGHTi

The Nile Dam Dispute: Issues for Congress
July 27, 2020
Overview
A long-running dispute between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan over the waters of the Nile flared in 2020, as
Ethiopia moves toward completion of Africa’s largest hydroelectric power project, the Grand Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam (GERD). The domestic stakes are high for both Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed,
who seeks to guide Ethiopia through a fragile political transition, and Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al
Sisi, who seeks to preserve Egypt’s share of the Nile amidst population growth, pollution, and rising sea
levels. Efforts to resolve the conflict, including by the United States, have yet to result in a final
agreement. Alongside the potential for the dispute to escalate, failure to reach an accord could set a
negative precedent for transboundary water cooperation at a time of growing global concern over climate
change, demographic growth, and resource scarcity.
Background
For Ethiopia, where almost 70% the rural population lacks access to electricity, the GERD would
significantly expand domestic power capacity and allow the country to sell excess electricity to its
neighbors. When construction began on the $4 billion project in 2011, then-Prime Minister Meles Zenawi
pledged that Ethiopia would finance the project itself, funding it through government bonds, donations,
taxes, and a portion of civil servants’ salaries. He envisioned the 6,000-megawatt GERD as powering
Ethiopia’s development and helping to lift its population out of poverty. The project has been a source of
national pride for Ethiopians, and a rallying point amidst recent domestic troubles.
For Egypt, which relies on the Nile for domestic hydropower, agriculture, and most of its water needs, the
prospect of upstream countries controlling the river’s flow has become an existential issue. Egypt argues
that the dam, once filled, will limit the flow to Egypt to below its traditional share. For nearly a century,
Egypt has been the main beneficiary of international agreements apportioning shares of the Nile’s waters.
The upstream countries were not parties to those agreements, made while most of them were still under
colonial rule. The most recent treaty, the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement between Egypt and Sudan, divided
the river’s entire average annual flow between the two countries. Roughly 85% of the water flowing into
Egypt comes from the Nile’s main tributary, the Blue Nile, which originates in Ethiopia and merges in
Sudan with the White Nile. Ethiopia was not party to the 1959 deal and does not recognize it.
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Figure 1. The Nile Basin Region

Source: New York Times.
The Nile Basin countries, including Egypt, formed the Nile Basin Initiative in 1999 to foster international
cooperation over Nile development. Egypt and Sudan refused to sign an agreement over equitable water
allocation in 2010, however, fearing their historic water rights would not be preserved. Ethiopia began
construction of the GERD a year later. Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan have since engaged in multiple rounds
of negotiations on the GERD, and in 2015 they signed a “Declaration of Principles,” agreeing to resolve
disputes on the dam peacefully.
U.S.-Mediated Talks
In late 2019, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin offered to host the GERD talks, reportedly after a
request from President Sisi to President Trump. The three countries made progress in subsequent
meetings and reached consensus on how Ethiopia should fill and operate the dam when there is sufficient
rainfall, but remained at odds over issues related to drought mitigation and dispute resolution. The talks
broke down in February, after the United States agreed to “facilitate the preparation” of a final agreement.
Egypt initialed the document, which Secretary Mnuchin suggested addressed “all issues in a balanced and

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equitable manner.” Mnuchin stressed that “final testing and filling should not take place without an
agreement.” His statement prompted protests by Ethiopian Americans, and Ethiopia called it unacceptable
and biased.
Current Status
In April, Prime Minister Abiy proposed an interim deal for the first two years of filling, and reiterated
Ethiopia’s intention to begin filling during the rainy season in July, with or without a deal. Egypt, arguing
that would be a breach of Ethiopia’s international legal obligations, sought U.N. Security Council
intervention, insisting on a final deal before filling commenced. The U.S. National Security Council
expressed its position on Twitter: “257 million people in east #Africa are relying on #Ethiopia to show
strong leadership, which means striking a fair deal. Technical issues have been resolved – time to get the
GERD deal done before filling it with Nile River water!”
Days before a June 22 U.N. Security Council meeting on the issue, African Union (AU) officials
proposed to facilitate a new round of talks. Many Security Council members welcomed the AU
intervention, which the parties accepted and the International Crisis Group called a “window of
opportunity.”
Tensions subsequently increased when, amidst the talks, satellite imagery showed the reservoir’s volume
increasing. Ethiopian officials explained that heavy rains had created “natural pooling,” which experts say
was expected at this stage of construction. Egypt’s foreign minister warned that if the stalemate
continued, Egypt would again appeal to the Security Council. A July 21 meeting among the countries’
leaders appears to have resulted in a breakthrough, though, with the parties agreeing to extend the AU-led
talks. This defused the standoff over the initial stage of filling, which Abiy announced had been achieved
the following day. He suggests the GERD will reach full power generating capacity in 2023.
The GERD dispute has raised several issues for Congress, including whether the Administration inflamed
regional tensions by appearing to intervene on Egypt’s behalf. The Congressional Black Caucus has urged
impartiality in the dispute between Africa’s second- and third-most populous countries. Several Members
have expressed the position that it is in the U.S. interest for the parties to reach an equitable deal; some
have cautioned against the United States “playing favorites.” Some have raised concern with reports that
the Administration may be reviewing some U.S. aid to Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s perception that the United
States has overstepped could have implications for the bilateral relationship.
The GERD dispute may be a harbinger of other rising transboundary tensions over shared natural
resources. According to the National Intelligence Council, “Nearly half of the world’s 263 international
river basins lack cooperative management agreements.” As lawmakers consider options to encourage
cooperation over competition, Congress may consider how foreign policy tools such as aid, trade,
investment, and technical assistance could be employed to foster more efficient water use and cooperative
water-sharing worldwide.

Author Information

Lauren Ploch Blanchard
Jeremy M. Sharp
Specialist in African Affairs
Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs

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