{ "id": "IN11192", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "number": "IN11192", "active": true, "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "versions": [ { "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "id": 615604, "date": "2020-01-31", "retrieved": "2020-02-01T23:07:06.442676", "title": "Lebanon Forms New Government Amid Economic Crisis, Ongoing Protests ", "summary": "On January 21, Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab announced the formation of a new Lebanese government, 85 days after nationwide protests triggered the resignation of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri. The new cabinet is comprised entirely of parties allied with the March 8 political bloc\u2014headed by the Christian Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), Hezbollah, and the Amal Movement\u2014leading some to describe it as one-sided. The new government faces significant challenges, including ongoing protests and an escalating economic crisis. However, the political composition of the new government\u2014and the perceived influence of Hezbollah in its formation\u2014may reduce the willingness of some international donors to provide financial assistance absent significant economic reforms. \nThe New Government\nWhat is the political composition of the new government? Lebanese press has described the political breakdown of the cabinet as follows: \nFPM (Christian): 6 seats. Ministries: Defense, Foreign Affairs, Energy, Justice, Economy, Displaced Persons. \nDiab pick (Selected by the prime minister. No listed party affiliation, mostly Sunni): 4 seats. Ministries: Interior, Telecommunications, Environment, Education. \nHezbollah (Shi\u2019a): 2 seats. Ministries: Health, Industry. \nAmal Movement (Shi\u2019a): 2 seats. Ministries: Finance, Agriculture & Culture. \nMarada (Christian): 2 seats. Ministries: Labor, Public Works.\nLebanese Democratic Party (Druze): 2 seats. Ministries: Social Affairs & Tourism, Information. \nTashnag (Armenian Orthodox): 1 seat. Ministry: Youth and Sports. \nWhat is Hezbollah\u2019s role? Hezbollah held three ministries in the outgoing government (Health, Youth and Sports, and Parliamentary Affairs). In the new cabinet, Hezbollah has retained the Health Ministry and gained the Industry Ministry\u2014a post it last held in 2018. Hezbollah also reportedly played a significant role in the selection of incoming Prime Minister Diab.\nWho is not represented in this government? All 20 ministers in the new government are affiliated with the March 8 political bloc. March 8 favors friendly ties with Iran and Syria, in contrast to the rival March 14 bloc, which maintains closer ties to the United States, France, and Saudi Arabia. Parties affiliated with March 14, which opposed Diab\u2019s nomination to the premiership, reportedly told the new prime minister that they would not take part in the new government. \nMarch 14 parties absent from the new government include the Future Movement (Sunni) led by former Prime Minister Hariri, the Lebanese Forces (Christian), Kata\u2019eb (Christian), and the Progressive Socialist Party (Druze), which at times has fluctuated between the two blocs. \nWhile the outgoing government had a March 8 majority (reflecting the results of the 2018 parliamentary elections), it also included 11 ministers (out of 30) affiliated with March 14. Out of the 128 seats in Lebanon\u2019s parliament, 68 currently are held by March 8, 47 are held by March 14, and 13 MPs are not formally members of a bloc. \nWhat is the sectarian composition of the new government? While the new government excludes the political opposition (March 14), it does include most of Lebanon\u2019s primary religious sects. As with Lebanon\u2019s parliament, the new cabinet is evenly split between Christians and Muslims and includes:\n4 Sunni, 4 Shi\u2019a;\n2 Druze (Druze are classified as Muslim for the purposes of seat allocation, although they do not consider themselves as such); and \n10 Christians (4 Maronite, 3 Greek Orthodox, 2 Greek Catholic, 1 Armenian Orthodox).\nWhat distinguishes this cabinet from the previous government? Prime Minister Diab\u2019s cabinet will be the first Lebanese government since 2005 composed entirely of parties from a single political bloc. The new cabinet is significantly smaller than the outgoing government\u201420 ministers, a reduction of 10 seats\u2014resulting in the combination of some ministerial portfolios. The new cabinet also includes the highest percentage of female ministers to date (six out of twenty), as well as Lebanon\u2019s first female defense minister. \nDoes the new cabinet address protestor demands? The ongoing protest movement, which began in October 2019 and led to the resignation of the previous government, called for a variety of reforms including the formation of a technocratic government, the removal of all political elites, and a change to Lebanon\u2019s confessional system (in which power is divided based on sectarian affiliation). In a partial concession to protestor demands, the new government contains few career politicians; more than half of the new ministers are university professors or administrators. However, observers have noted that many ministers have connections to established political parties (in some cases they formerly served as policy advisors). Many protestors have rejected the new government, and clashes between some protestors and security forces continue. \nHow has the U.S. government reacted? When asked whether the United States would work with the new Lebanese government, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo responded, \u201cWe\u2019ll have to take a look at it. I don\u2019t know the answer to that yet [...] We\u2019ve been very clear about the requirements for the United States to engage. Lebanon has a terrible financial crisis that lays in front of it in just the weeks ahead. We\u2019re prepared to engage, provide support, but only to a government that\u2019s committed to reform.\u201d Regarding whether the United States would support the provision of international financial assistance to Lebanon, Pompeo stated that only a Lebanese government \u201ccapable and committed to undertaking real and tangible reforms will restore investor confidence and unlock international assistance.\u201d\nOutlook\nEconomic concerns are likely to dominate the new government\u2019s agenda. Lebanon has a debt burden of about $88 billion, roughly 160 percent of the country\u2019s GDP, and debt servicing consumes almost half of all government revenue. Since protests began in October 2019, inflation has approached 30 percent, and the Lebanese pound has depreciated roughly 40 percent against the dollar, leading banks to ration dollar withdrawals. Importers also have struggled to purchase critical goods like fuel, medicine, and food. Lebanese leaders currently are debating whether to repay a $1.2 billion Eurobond maturing in early March, or to use limited foreign exchange reserves to finance imports. \nThe 2018 CEDRE donor conference pledged more than $11 billion in loans and grants for Lebanon, but the funds are contingent on economic reform measures which have not been enacted. U.S. officials have stated that Lebanon will not receive a \u201cbailout\u201d unless it implements reform. Newly appointed Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni has stated that one of the priorities of the new government would be to secure up to $5 billion in soft loans from the international community to finance the import of wheat, medicine, and fuel oil.", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "active": true, "formats": [ { "format": "HTML", "encoding": "utf-8", "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/IN11192", "sha1": "935f6fb9cb5aa686e41cf6060a2e21831e8d21e9", "filename": "files/20200131_IN11192_935f6fb9cb5aa686e41cf6060a2e21831e8d21e9.html", "images": {} }, { "format": "PDF", "encoding": null, "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/pdf/IN11192", "sha1": "c10ac1e78fb5dfc13d0a9a349b07a0cebb172d8f", "filename": "files/20200131_IN11192_c10ac1e78fb5dfc13d0a9a349b07a0cebb172d8f.pdf", "images": {} } ], "topics": [] }, { "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "id": 612174, "date": "2019-12-20", "retrieved": "2020-01-02T13:34:23.534467", "title": "Lebanon: Protests and Appointment of New Prime Minister-Designate", "summary": "On December 19, Lebanese President Michel Aoun appointed Hassan Diab\u2014an engineering professor at the American University of Beirut\u2014as prime minister-designate. Diab will replace former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who resigned on October 29 following nationwide mass protests. While Diab was backed by a simple majority in Lebanon\u2019s parliament, he lacks support from some key constituencies, and may struggle to form a new government. Protestors have opposed Diab\u2019s nomination, and security and economic conditions in the country continue to deteriorate. Instability in Lebanon could create opportunities for actors of concern to the United States, including Hezbollah and Iran. \nThe Protest Movement\nWhat triggered the protests? Protests began on October 17, triggered by a proposed tax on internet-enabled voice calls (notably WhatsApp). However, the movement reflects broader dissatisfaction with what protestors describe as government corruption, ineptitude, and economic mismanagement. Demonstrators, who represent a broad economic, political, and sectarian cross-section of Lebanese society, have emphasized that protests are primarily driven by the state\u2019s failure to provide sufficient access to basic goods and services, including jobs, education, water, electricity, and garbage disposal. Large-scale protests have persisted nationwide, and the pervasive economic concerns driving them also have largely transcended sectarian divisions. \nFigure 1. Lebanon\n/\nSource: CRS.\nWhat are their demands? Protestors lack centralized leadership, and their demands vary. Some have called for specific policy and/or leadership changes, such as early elections, a new electoral law, and the resignation of President Michel Aoun (whose term expires in 2022). Other demands have a less clear path towards implementation, such as a change to Lebanon\u2019s confessional system (in which power is divided based on sectarian affiliation), the return of \u201clooted public money,\u201d and the removal of the entire political elite.\nHezbollah & Iran\nDo protestors oppose Hezbollah? Protestors have called for the removal of all political elites, specifically naming Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah. Protests have occurred in cities considered to be bastions of support for Hezbollah and the allied Amal movement. While some Hezbollah and Amal supporters have clashed with demonstrators, others have joined the protests. Those joining the protests generally have not criticized Hezbollah\u2019s military operations or stance against Israel, but rather focused on Lebanon\u2019s economic mismanagement, high unemployment, and the lack of consistent access to basic services. \nWhat is Hezbollah\u2019s position regarding the protests? Nasrallah opposed the resignation of Hariri\u2019s government, warning that it would lead to a power vacuum in the country. Nasrallah also suggested that foreign embassies were financing the protests. Similarly, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has blamed the United States for spreading \u201cinsecurity and turmoil\u201d in Lebanon. Hezbollah was part of the ruling coalition in Lebanon\u2019s outgoing government, and held three Cabinet seats. In November, supporters of Hezbollah and Amal appeared to escalate physical attacks on protestors. \nEconomic Crisis\nWhat is the economic situation? In September 2019, Lebanese officials declared what they described as an \u201ceconomic state of emergency.\u201d Lebanon\u2019s debt-to-GDP ratio stands at over 150%, and debt servicing consumes almost half of all government revenue. The majority of remaining government revenue is expended on public sector salaries and transfers to the state-owned electricity company, severely limiting the government\u2019s ability to invest in basic infrastructure and public services. Since protests began, a scarcity of dollars in Lebanon has caused the Lebanese pound to depreciate in the black market and led banks to ration dollar withdrawals. Importers also have struggled to purchase critical goods like fuel, medicine, and food. Restrictions on dollar withdrawals and shortages of basic goods, if prolonged or exacerbated, could increase the risk for broader social upheaval. \nWhat has been the international response? At the April 2018 CEDRE conference in Paris, international donors pledged more than $11 billion in loans and grants for Lebanon, but the funds are contingent on economic reform measures which were not implemented and which cannot be passed until a new government is formed. In late 2019, Hariri requested international funds to help finance imports. However, U.S. officials have stated that Lebanon will not receive a \u201cbailout\u201d unless it implements reform.\nNext Steps\nWho is Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab? Diab, a Sunni Muslim, is vice president of the American University of Beirut, where he also teaches engineering. Between 2011 and 2014 he served as education minister in the government of former Prime Minister Najib Mikati. He is not formally affiliated with any political party. Diab received a Ph.D. in computer engineering from the University of Bath in the United Kingdom. \nWhy has Diab\u2019s appointment generated controversy? According to Lebanon\u2019s constitution, the country\u2019s prime minister must be a Sunni Muslim. However, Diab received only six out of a possible 27 votes from Sunni MPs in support of his nomination, leading to some accusations that he does not represent the Sunni sect. Diab was nominated mostly on the strength of support from non-Sunni elements: Hezbollah, the Amal movement, and the Christian Free Patriotic Movement. 42 MPs abstained from the vote, including Hariri\u2019s Future Movement\u2014the largest Sunni bloc in parliament. \nWhat could a new government look like? Protestors have called for the formation of a government of independent technocrats that excludes representatives of political parties. While Hariri endorsed this demand, President Aoun and most Lebanese parties have rejected it. Aoun has called for the formation of a blended \u201ctechno-political government,\u201d while Hezbollah has called for the formation of a national unity government representing all parties in parliament. Diab may struggle to form a government, as he received only a slight majority (69 out of 128) votes in support of his nomination. \nOutlook\nWhile protests have not directly challenged the broader role of Hezbollah in Lebanon, both Hezbollah and Iran appear to view protests as a significant threat to their influence within the country\u2014particularly given concurrent protests in Iraq. Hezbollah supported the appointment of prime minister designate Hassan Diab, and will likely work to ensure that its interests are represented in any new cabinet.\nAny efforts by Iranian-backed groups to destabilize Lebanon could place pressure on the Lebanese Armed Forces, which the United States has sought to bolster in the hopes that the institution can serve as a counterweight to Syrian and Iranian influence. In early December, the Trump Administration lifted a hold on $105 million in FY2019 Foreign Military Financing (FMF) funds allocated for Lebanon. In mid-December, Secretary of State Pompeo intervened to release a hold on $115 million in Economic Support Funds (ESF) for Lebanon.", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "active": true, "formats": [ { "format": "HTML", "encoding": "utf-8", "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/IN11192", "sha1": "a30abe90b57c0ee06a399c59fd99f043ff6f05c0", "filename": "files/20191220_IN11192_a30abe90b57c0ee06a399c59fd99f043ff6f05c0.html", "images": { "/products/Getimages/?directory=IN/ASPX/IN11192_files&id=/0.png": "files/20191220_IN11192_images_45fc2f9880ad56e48cfb8fc8a96ab838fc37871e.png" } }, { "format": "PDF", "encoding": null, "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/pdf/IN11192", "sha1": "636880d4d5300a8ccab19884b0c25fa89ef51362", "filename": "files/20191220_IN11192_636880d4d5300a8ccab19884b0c25fa89ef51362.pdf", "images": {} } ], "topics": [] }, { "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "id": 609696, "date": "2019-12-03", "retrieved": "2019-12-13T15:07:46.833309", "title": "Lebanon: Protests and Government Resignation", "summary": "On October 29, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri announced his resignation, automatically triggering the resignation of his government. The move followed nearly two weeks of nationwide mass protests, described as potentially the largest in Lebanese history. As of early December, protests continued and political parties struggled to reach consensus on the appointment of a prime minister\u2014acceptable to both protestors and party leaders\u2014who could form a new government. Meanwhile, security and economic conditions in the country continue to deteriorate. Instability in Lebanon could create opportunities for actors of concern to the United States, including Hezbollah and Iran. \nThe Protest Movement\nWhat triggered the protests? Protests began on October 17, triggered by a proposed tax on internet-enabled voice calls (notably Whatsapp). However, the movement reflects broader dissatisfaction with what protestors describe as government corruption, ineptitude, and economic mismanagement. Demonstrators, who represent a broad economic, political, and sectarian cross-section of Lebanese society, have emphasized that protests are primarily driven by the state\u2019s failure to provide sufficient access to basic goods and services, including jobs, education, water, electricity, and garbage disposal. \nWhat is new about these protests? Unlike in previous protests, Beirut is not the epicenter. Large-scale protests have persisted nationwide, and the pervasive economic concerns driving them also have transcended sectarian divisions. Unlike past protests that generally were mobilized by political parties or civil society groups, demonstrators have organized around a shared national\u2014rather than party or sectarian\u2014identity. \nLebanon\n/\nSource: CRS.\nWhat are their demands? Protestors lack centralized leadership, and their demands vary. Some have called for specific policy and/or leadership changes, such as early elections, a new electoral law, and the resignation of President Michel Aoun (whose term expires in 2022). Other demands have a less clear path towards implementation, such as a change to Lebanon\u2019s confessional system (in which power is divided based on sectarian affiliation), the return of \u201clooted public money,\u201d and the removal of the entire political elite.\nHow has Lebanon\u2019s government responded? The government quickly scrapped the proposed tax on internet-enabled voice calls. Before its resignation, the government also passed what Lebanese press described as \u201ca raft of unprecedented, radical economic reforms,\u201d including privatizations, salary cuts for ministers and legislators, and the establishment of a national anti-corruption commission. Some analysts argued that former Prime Minister Hariri\u2019s economic reform package \u201cdoes not represent a realistic and sustainable fiscal consolidation plan. It also falls short of sufficient details and does not include the structural reforms required to put the country back on track.\u201d\nWhat have U.S. officials said? Secretary of State Pompeo called upon Lebanon\u2019s leaders to \u201curgently facilitate the formation of a new government,\u201d and criticized what he described as Iranian meddling in the country. Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker stated that the United States supports \u201cthe legitimate demands of the Lebanese people to have a government that will reform economically and will fight corruption,\u201d but added that the United States was not taking a position on the composition of a new government. \nHezbollah & Iran\nDo protestors oppose Hezbollah? Protestors have called for the removal of all political elites, specifically naming Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah. Protests have occurred in cities considered to be bastions of support for Hezbollah and the allied Amal movement. While some Hezbollah and Amal supporters have clashed with demonstrators, others have joined the protests. Those joining the protests generally have not criticized Hezbollah\u2019s military operations or stance against Israel, but rather focused on economic mismanagement, high unemployment, and the lack of consistent access to basic services such electricity, water, and garbage collection. \nWhat is Hezbollah\u2019s position regarding the protests? Nasrallah opposed the resignation of Hariri\u2019s government, warning that it would lead to a power vacuum in the country, and instead called for reforms from within. Nasrallah also suggested that foreign embassies were financing the protests. Similarly, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has blamed the United States for spreading \u201cinsecurity and turmoil\u201d in Lebanon. Hezbollah was part of the ruling coalition in Lebanon\u2019s outgoing government, and held three Cabinet seats. In November, supporters of Hezbollah and Amal appeared to escalate physical attacks on protestors. \nNext Steps\nHow will a new government be formed? According to the constitution, Lebanese President Michel Aoun must convene the various parliamentary blocs for consultations on the appointment of a prime minister-designate. To be designated and charged with forming a new government, a candidate will need to secure the support of a majority of political blocs in parliament. This is frequently a lengthy process\u2014the outgoing cabinet was formed after eight months of deadlock. As of early December, President Aoun had not set a date for parliamentary consultations. \nWhat could a new government look like? Protestors have called for the formation of a government of independent technocrats that excludes representatives of political parties. Former Prime Minister Hariri has endorsed this demand, and added that any candidate for the premiership must also seek extraordinary legislative powers from Parliament, redistribute key ministerial portfolios, and hold early parliamentary elections. President Aoun and most Lebanese parties have rejected the call for a technocratic government. Aoun has called for the formation of a blended \u201ctechno-political government,\u201d while Hezbollah has called for the formation of a national unity government representing all parties in parliament. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri reportedly stated that the request for exceptional powers from parliament is \u201centirely out of the question because it means obstructing Parliament\u2019s legislative and oversight role.\u201d\nOutlook\nPolitical uncertainty has exacerbated the challenges facing Lebanon\u2019s economy\u2014already in crisis prior to the protests. A scarcity of dollars in Lebanon has caused the Lebanese pound to depreciate in the black market and led banks to ration dollar withdrawals. It also has challenged the ability of importers to purchase critical goods like fuel, medicine, and food. Restrictions on dollar withdrawals and shortages of basic goods, if prolonged or exacerbated, could increase the risk for broader social upheaval. At the April 2018 CEDRE conference in Paris, international donors pledged more than $11 billion in loans and grants for Lebanon, but the funds are contingent on economic reform measures which were not implemented and which cannot be passed until a new government is formed. \nWhile protests have not directly challenged the broader role of Hezbollah in Lebanon, both Hezbollah and Iran appear to view protests as a significant threat to their influence within the country\u2014particularly given similar protests in Iraq. Hezbollah will likely continue trying to ensure that its interests are represented in any new cabinet, potentially delaying the formation of a new government. Any efforts by Iranian-backed groups to destabilize Lebanon would also place pressure on the Lebanese Armed Forces, which the United States has sought to bolster in the hopes that the institution can serve as a counterweight to Syrian and Iranian influence in Lebanon. In early December, the Trump Administration lifted a hold on $105 million in FY2019 Foreign Military Financing (FMF) funds allocated for Lebanon.", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "active": true, "formats": [ { "format": "HTML", "encoding": "utf-8", "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/IN11192", "sha1": "d90314b3db35e95c1b79df6b7deb93c1fd5285e8", "filename": "files/20191203_IN11192_d90314b3db35e95c1b79df6b7deb93c1fd5285e8.html", "images": { "/products/Getimages/?directory=IN/ASPX/IN11192_files&id=/0.png": "files/20191203_IN11192_images_45fc2f9880ad56e48cfb8fc8a96ab838fc37871e.png" } }, { "format": "PDF", "encoding": null, "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/pdf/IN11192", "sha1": "5397f9ca1aff85051b6e34d7f5438fcc54793755", "filename": "files/20191203_IN11192_5397f9ca1aff85051b6e34d7f5438fcc54793755.pdf", "images": {} } ], "topics": [] }, { "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "id": 607065, "date": "2019-11-01", "retrieved": "2019-11-04T23:01:54.089014", "title": "Lebanon: Protests and Government Resignation", "summary": "On October 29, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri announced his resignation, automatically triggering the resignation of his government. The move followed nearly two weeks of nationwide mass protests, described as potentially the largest in Lebanese history. Protestors represent a broad economic, political, and sectarian cross-section of Lebanese society, and have continued to call for a comprehensive change in political leadership even after the resignation of the Hariri government. The protests, and uncertainty over the formation of a new government, represent a significant challenge for Lebanese institutions, particularly against the backdrop of an ongoing financial crisis. Instability in Lebanon could create opportunities for actors of concern to the United States, including Hezbollah and Iran. \nThe Protest Movement\nWhat triggered the protests? They began on October 17, having been triggered by a proposed government tax on internet-enabled voice calls (notably Whatsapp), which many Lebanese rely on due to the prohibitive costs of cellular phone calls and texts. However, the movement reflects broader dissatisfaction with what protestors describe as government corruption, ineptitude, and economic mismanagement. Demonstrators emphasized that protests were not primarily driven by Whatsapp, but by the state\u2019s failure to provide sufficient access to basic goods and services, including jobs, education, water, electricity, and garbage disposal.\nWhat is new about these protests? Unlike in previous protests, Beirut is not the epicenter. Large-scale protests have broken out nationwide, and the pervasive economic concerns driving them also have transcended sectarian divisions. Protest areas range from Tripoli in the north (a Sunni stronghold) to the Shi\u2019a dominated areas of southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley. Unlike past protests that generally were mobilized by political parties or civil society groups, demonstrators appeared to gather spontaneously under Lebanese, rather than party flags. Notably, demonstrators across sects targeted their own political representatives: Sunni-dominated areas saw protests against Sunni Prime Minister Hariri, while in Shi\u2019a areas demonstrators chanted against the Shi\u2019a speaker of parliament and attacked offices of Hezbollah parliamentarians. \nFigure 1. Lebanon\n/\nSource: CRS.\nWhat are their demands? Protestors lack a centralized leadership, and their demands vary. Some have called for specific policy and/or leadership changes, such as early elections, a new electoral law, and the resignation of Lebanese President Michel Aoun (whose term expires in 2022) and Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh. Other protestor demands have a less clear path towards implementation, such as a change to Lebanon\u2019s confessional system (in which power is divided based on sectarian affiliation), the return of \u201clooted public money,\u201d and the removal of the entire political elite.\nWhat has been the government response? The government quickly scrapped the proposed tax on internet-enabled voice calls. The government also passed what Lebanese press has described as \u201ca raft of unprecedented, radical economic reforms,\u201d including privatizations, salary cuts for ministers and legislators, and the establishment of a national anti-corruption commission. Protestors have welcomed these moves but generally have considered them insufficient. \nHezbollah & Iran\nDo protestors oppose Hezbollah? Protestors have called for the removal of all political elites, specifically naming Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah. Protests have occurred in cities considered to be bastions of support for Hezbollah and Amal, including Sidon, Tyre, and Nabatieh. While some Hezbollah and Amal supporters have clashed with demonstrators, others have joined the protests. Those joining the protests have generally not criticized Hezbollah\u2019s military operations or stance against Israel, but rather focused on economic mismanagement, high unemployment, and the lack of consistent access to basic services such electricity, water, and garbage collection. \nWhat is Hezbollah\u2019s position regarding the protests? Nasrallah opposed the resignation of Hariri\u2019s government, warning that it would lead to a power vacuum in the country, and instead called for reforms from within. Nasrallah also suggested that foreign embassies were financing the protests. Similarly, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has blamed the United States for spreading \u201cinsecurity and turmoil\u201d in Lebanon, and called on protestors to pursue reforms \u201cthrough the framework of legal structures.\u201d Hezbollah was part of the ruling coalition in Lebanon\u2019s outgoing government, and held three Cabinet seats.\nNext Steps\nHow will a new government be formed? According to the constitution, Lebanese President Michel Aoun must convene the various parliamentary blocs for consultations on the appointment of a prime minister-designate, who will be charged with forming a new government. This is frequently a lengthy process\u2014the outgoing cabinet was formed after eight months of political deadlock. \nA technocratic government? Some have suggested that Prime Minister Hariri could return to the premiership and form a government of independent technocrats. However, the formation of a technocratic government would arguably be constrained by the same factors that historically have complicated all efforts at government formation in Lebanon, including the constitutional requirement that all of Lebanon\u2019s sects be \u201cfairly represented in the formation of the Cabinet,\u201d and domestic political rivalries. \nWhat are the economic issues at stake? Prior to the protests, Lebanon already was in the midst of a severe financial and economic crisis. Banks have remained closed for weeks since the protests started. Observers fear that the re-opening of lending institutions could trigger a bank run, due in part to a shortage of dollars in the market which had spurred protests as recently as September. Some analysts have argued that former Prime Minister Hariri\u2019s economic reform package \u201cdoes not represent a realistic and sustainable fiscal consolidation plan. It also falls short of sufficient details and does not include the structural reforms required to put the country back on track.\u201d\nOutlook\nWhile the protests have not directly challenged the broader role of Hezbollah in Lebanon, both Hezbollah and Iran appear to view protests as a significant threat to their influence within the country\u2014particularly in light of similar ongoing protests in Iraq. Hezbollah will likely seek to ensure that its interests are represented in any new cabinet, potentially delaying the formation of a new government. Lebanon\u2019s prime-minister designate, when appointed, will have to balance pressure from the United States to exclude Hezbollah from government against the potential for the group and its allies to block the formation of a government that is seen as not representing its interests. Any efforts by Iranian-backed groups to destabilize Lebanon would also place pressure on the Lebanese Armed Forces, which the United States has sought to bolster in the hopes that the institution can serve as a counterweight to Syrian and Iranian influence in Lebanon. In late October, the Administration reportedly elected to withhold $105 million in security aid for Lebanon; no reason was publicly given. Congress places several certification requirements on U.S. assistance funds for Lebanon annually in an effort to prevent their misuse or the transfer of U.S. equipment to Hezbollah or other designated terrorists.", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "active": true, "formats": [ { "format": "HTML", "encoding": "utf-8", "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/IN11192", "sha1": "f440dee4d3310d815e1e435c26a45eb48119f4f2", "filename": "files/20191101_IN11192_f440dee4d3310d815e1e435c26a45eb48119f4f2.html", "images": { "/products/Getimages/?directory=IN/ASPX/IN11192_files&id=/0.png": "files/20191101_IN11192_images_45fc2f9880ad56e48cfb8fc8a96ab838fc37871e.png" } }, { "format": "PDF", "encoding": null, "url": "https://www.crs.gov/Reports/pdf/IN11192", "sha1": "f9b824acda0d8b89a44ae598edab9f016ce17287", "filename": "files/20191101_IN11192_f9b824acda0d8b89a44ae598edab9f016ce17287.pdf", "images": {} } ], "topics": [] } ], "topics": [ "CRS Insights", "Foreign Affairs" ] }