{ "id": "IN10616", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "number": "IN10616", "active": false, "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "versions": [ { "source": "EveryCRSReport.com", "id": 457348, "date": "2016-12-02", "retrieved": "2017-04-21T15:12:28.846768", "title": "Fidel Castro\u2019s Death: Implications for Cuba and U.S. Policy", "summary": "The death of Cuba\u2019s former long-time ruler Fidel Castro on November 25, 2016, raises questions regarding Cuba\u2019s economic and political situation and the future of U.S. policy toward Cuba. The revolutionary leader overthrew an unpopular dictatorship in 1959, but ended up imposing a communist regime that led to some social progress yet also resulted in severe human rights abuses and a feeble economy. For a small island nation, Cuba played an oversized role in international affairs under Castro\u2019s rule through its support for revolutionary movements abroad and its strong opposition to the United States. \nWhile Fidel Castro\u2019s historical legacy is significant\u2014regardless of whether one views him positively or negatively\u2014he has not held formal power since he stepped down in 2006 for health reasons and was succeeded by his brother Ra\u00fal Castro, Cuba\u2019s long-time defense minister. Ra\u00fal has concentrated on making changes to Cuba\u2019s economic model by introducing some market-oriented reforms, but he has kept tight control over the political system. \nEven after stepping down, Fidel continued to author essays published in Cuban media that cast a shadow on Ra\u00fal\u2019s rule. Many Cubans reportedly believe that Fidel encouraged so-called hardliners in Cuba\u2019s Communist Party (PCC) and government bureaucracy to slow the pace of reforms. With Fidel\u2019s passing, some Cuban entrepreneurs hope that the pace of reforms might accelerate. \nFidel\u2019s death points to the generational change that has already begun in the Cuban government and a passing of the older generation of so-called hist\u00f3ricos of the 1959 revolution. Ra\u00fal\u2019s government imposed two five-year term limits for top officials. Accordingly, Ra\u00fal has said that he will step down as president in February 2018 at the end of his second term when he would be 86 years of age. Most observers believe that current First Vice President Miguel D\u00edaz-Canel (currently aged 56), a former minister of higher education, will succeed Ra\u00fal as president, marking a transition to the first Cuban government not headed by a Castro in 62 years. \nU.S. Policy Implications\nUpon Fidel\u2019s passing, President Obama issued a statement extending condolences to Fidel\u2019s family and extending \u201ca hand of friendship to the Cuban people.\u201d He said that \u201chistory will record and judge the enormous impact of this singular figure on the people and world around him.\u201d The President acknowledged that while the United States and Cuba have had profound political disagreements, his Administration has \u201cworked hard to put the past behind us, pursuing a future in which the relationship between our two countries is defined not by our differences but by the many things that we share as neighbors and friends.... \u201d Opponents of the Obama Administration\u2019s policy of engagement with Cuba, including some Members of Congress, criticized the President\u2019s statement, maintaining that it disregarded the significant human rights abuses under Castro. While the Administration has been pursuing a policy of engagement and normalization of relations, it has not refrained from speaking out on human rights. During his March 2016 trip to Cuba, the President asserted in a televised speech that \u201ccitizens should be free to speak their mind without fear.\u201d \nStatements from President-elect Trump suggest that he might reverse some of the Obama Administration\u2019s Cuba policy changes. After Fidel\u2019s death, the President-elect issued a statement referring to Castro as a \u201cbrutal dictator who oppressed his own people for nearly six decades.\u201d This was followed by a longer message on November 28 maintaining: \u201cIf Cuba is unwilling to make a better deal for the Cuban people, the Cuban/American people and the U.S. as a whole, I will terminate [the] deal.\u201d At this juncture, it remains unclear what actions might be taken by the incoming Administration. During the electoral campaign, candidate Trump said he would cancel or reverse President Obama\u2019s policy on Cuba unless Cuba took action to improve political and religious freedom and free political prisoners.\nSince President Obama\u2019s policy shift on Cuba was done largely by executive action, President-elect Trump could reverse many of those policies, which have included the reestablishment of diplomatic relations (July 2015), the rescission of Cuba\u2019s designation as a state sponsor of terrorism (May 2015), and an increase in travel and commerce with Cuba. This third step involved a series of regulatory changes to the economic embargo by the Treasury and Commerce Departments. The Administration could decide to reverse some or all these changes or to ease or tighten other aspects of the embargo regulations. The Administration also could make changes to other aspects of bilateral government-to-government cooperation and dialogues that have occurred under the Obama Administration. These include a variety of agreements and dialogues on such issues as telecommunications, science and technology, U.S. property claims, environmental protection, human rights, migration, law enforcement, civil aviation, and maritime borders.\nOpinion polls have shown that the policy of engagement has largely been popular, including within parts of the Cuban American community in South Florida, which could make it difficult for the incoming Administration to reverse the U.S. policy completely. Burgeoning U.S. business linkages, particularly in the travel industry and telecommunications sectors, also could make it difficult to reverse current policy. Given that much of the economic embargo on Cuba remains in place (and can be lifted only by Congress), the Administration could choose to let the changes that have already been made remain, but refrain from approving any additional easing of restrictions pending economic or political changes in Cuba. \nHistorically, Congress has played an active role in shaping policy toward Cuba, including the enactment of legislation strengthening and at times easing U.S. economic sanctions. Looking ahead, the 115th Congress may continue to maintain an active oversight and legislative interest in Cuba, with some Members advocating continued engagement and normalization of relations and others advocating tightening or introducing new economic sanctions. The human rights situation in Cuba is likely to remain a key concern.\nFor more on Cuba, see CRS In Focus IF10045, Cuba: President Obama\u2019s New Policy Approach; CRS Report R43926, Cuba: Issues for the 114th Congress; CRS Report R44119, U.S. Agricultural Trade with Cuba: Current Limitations and Future Prospects; CRS Report RL31139, Cuba: U.S. Restrictions on Travel and Remittances; and CRS Report R43888, Cuba Sanctions: Legislative Restrictions Limiting the Normalization of Relations.", "type": "CRS Insight", "typeId": "INSIGHTS", "active": false, "formats": [ { "format": "HTML", "encoding": "utf-8", "url": "http://www.crs.gov/Reports/IN10616", "sha1": "06b10bf18b50b8df29210b396323d226896bc744", "filename": "files/20161202_IN10616_06b10bf18b50b8df29210b396323d226896bc744.html", "images": null } ], "topics": [ { "source": "IBCList", "id": 4847, "name": "Latin America, Caribbean, & Canada" } ] } ], "topics": [ "CRS Insights" ] }