India’s 2024 National Election

India’s 2024 National Election

June 10, 2024
India’s 2024 National Election
Overview and Results
populated “Hindi belt.” In sum, the INDIA alliance won
The United States has been developing a strategic
234 seats, or 43% of the chamber.
partnership with the Republic of India for two decades, and
the U.S. Congress has broadly supported that engagement.
Both of the BJP’s most important coalition partners—
Reflecting an interest in democracy and human rights in
holding 16 and 12 seats, respectively—are avowedly
India, some Members of Congress have raised questions
secular, with nonideological interests firmly rooted in their
about how Modi’s continued political dominance and
respective states (Andhra Pradesh and Bihar; in 2019 the
Hindu-nationalist agenda might impact its consideration
leader of the former called Modi a “terrorist”). This
and oversight of the U.S.-India partnership.
circumstance may lead Modi and the BJP to moderate some
aspects of their previous positions, in particular those
With about 960 million eligible voters, India’s
animated by Hindu nationalism.
parliamentary democracy began its 2024 national
election—again history’s largest democratic exercise—in
The BJP and Congress are, in practice, India’s only
April, with seven phases over 43 days. About two-thirds of
genuinely national parties. As in the previous cycle, they
the electorate participated. On June 4, India’s Election
collectively won more than half of all votes cast
Commission announced the results of races for a new 543-
nationwide, 37% and 21%, respectively, virtually
seat Lok Sabha, parliament’s lower house and the locus of
unchanged over 2019. Yet, with the BJP’s seat count
national power. The central and near-universally-expected
dropping by more than one-fifth, India’s national politics
result was realized: continued rule for Prime Minister (PM)
will again feature the critical influence of state-based
Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the
parties, as was the case from 1996-2014. The BJP remains
world’s largest political party. On June 8, Modi was sworn
dominant: it won more seats than the next nine parties
in for another five-year term, becoming only the second
combined, as well as more than the INDIA alliance total.
Indian PM to win three consecutive terms (the country’s
first PM, Jawaharlal Nehru, accomplished this in 1962).
First-time parliamentarians won 52% of the chamber’s
seats, and the 18th Lok Sabha will be somewhat more
The outcome was also seen by many Indian and external
youthful than its predecessor (an average age of 56, down
observers as a major and surprise rebuke for Modi and his
from 59). Of the total, 14% are women, a slight decline.
party. After ten years with a Lok Sabha majority, the BJP
The number of Muslim members declined from 27 to 24,
had aspired to further boost its dominance in 2024—its
none NDA supporters (Muslims comprise 14% of India’s
leaders targeted 400 seats, up from 303 in 2019. The BJP
population and now hold less than 5% of Lok Sabha seats).
won only 240 seats, far short of the 272 needed for a
About one-quarter of seats are held by upper-caste figures;
majority. The 73-year-old Modi must for the first time rely
a slight majority of seats were won by lower caste (16%),
on allies in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance
tribal (10%), and “other backward castes” (25%) combined.
(NDA) to form a coalition government. With those allies,
the NDA will hold 293 seats, or 54% of the chamber.
Although parties opposed to Modi/BJP rule were unable to
displace it this cycle, many saw their seat share vastly
outpace expectations. In mid-2023, more than two dozen
opposition parties had formed the new Indian National
Developmental Inclusive Alliance, or “INDIA,” coalition to

contest the national elections. Most prominent in this

grouping was the dynastic Indian National Congress (INC
Reactions and Implications
or “Congress Party”), which dominated the country’s
PM Modi declared victory on election day, and one senior
politics for its first 50 years of independence. After two
BJP proponent affirmed the party’s performance as a “vote
consecutive routs at the national level—it won only 52 seats
of confidence” in its leadership, while acknowledging some
in 2019, short even of the 55 required to officially lead the
voter dissatisfaction. India’s major newspapers played up
opposition—the INC nearly doubled its standing, capturing
the opposition’s unexpected successes. As election results
99 seats under the campaign leadership of Rahul Gandhi,
came in, the Bombay Stock Exchange had its worst day in
heir to a lineage of three previous Indian PMs. Another
four years, its main index dipping by nearly 6%, with nearly
prominent INDIA member, Uttar Pradesh’s Samajwadi
$400 billion in losses. Upon his swearing in, Modi took a
Party (SP) won 37 seats—a more than six-fold gain over
consensus-seeking posture as he seated an unusually large
2019—making it the chamber’s third-largest party and
Council of Ministers with 72 figures, 11 of them non-BJP
illuminating the BJP’s electoral setbacks in India’s densely-
partners.
https://crsreports.congress.gov

India’s 2024 National Election
Modi’s enduring personal popularity is likely to persist,
government corruption investigations, 90% of them
even if dented. A 2023 survey found 79% of Indians held a
reportedly from opposition parties. An electoral bond
favorable view of the PM. Yet, on its own, Modi’s charisma
scheme reportedly disproportionately benefitted the BJP
was not sufficient to maintain the BJP’s national majority.
and was declared unconstitutional by India’s Supreme
Allegations of overconfidence and even arrogance—
Court in March; opposition leader Rahul Gandhi called it a
including his own claims that he was “sent by God”—led
BJP “extortion racket.” In mid-March, the Congress Party
some analysts to conclude that Modi may have alienated
accused the Modi government of crippling its campaign
some voters by making the election about himself. Some
operations with tax investigations that froze party accounts.
commentators castigated Modi for such bombast, as well as
On the same day, Delhi’s chief minister—a prominent
for excessive and divisive communal rhetoric.
opposition figure—was arrested for allegedly accepting
bribes. (Both latter developments were “follow[ed] closely”
India’s electorate appears to have rejected Modi’s vision of
by the U.S. State Department, which encouraged “fair,
a one-party state, and many analysts declared that India’s
transparent, and timely legal processes for each of these
democracy won and was revived. The Delhi daily Hindu
issues.”) Meanwhile, throughout the campaign India’s
editorialized that the “verdict” was a call from the people
media landscape was awash in disinformation, much of it
for the BJP “to be more conciliatory and less
reportedly sourced to the BJP government or its activists,
confrontational toward the political aspirations of various
including deepfakes and pro-Modi fake news channels on
communities and regions of India.” One pundit described
YouTube and abroad.
the results as at least temporarily dispelling “the suffocating
shadow of authoritarianism, and the nauseous winds of
Congressional Interest
communalism.”
On June 5, President Biden congratulated Modi and
welcomed growing U.S.-India friendship. The State
Some analysts contend that economic inequality and
Department commended “Indian voters, poll workers, civil
communal divisiveness put a ceiling on the electorate’s
society, and journalists for their commitment and vital
goodwill toward Modi and the BJP. These two issue areas
contributions to India’s democratic processes and
appeared central to the dynamics of the 2024 election and
institutions,” and said it expects “a continued close
are likely to receive particular attention under the new
partnership.”
government. India’s has been among the world’s fastest-
expanding major economies for the past decade, with 8.2%
The nature and trajectory of the U.S.-India partnership,
growth posted for FY2023/24. Under Modi, GDP per capita
described by the Biden Administration as “one of the most
increased by 55% and India became the world’s 5th-largest
strategic and consequential of the 21st century,” are unlikely
economy during this period, up from 9th. Modi has overseen
to change. Some analysts argue that continued Modi/BJP
a massive upgradation of India’s infrastructure, and many
incumbency will be a boon to India’s economic growth, and
Indians appear enthusiastic about the country’s ongoing
that a “chastened” Modi might benefit U.S. interests by
economic expansion. Yet extensive poverty (especially in
increasing his government’s reliability as a partner. Others
rural areas), high unemployment (especially among
foresee broad stability, with core drivers of economic
younger Indians), and high inflation rates were widely seen
policy unchanged. U.S. business interests that see a stake in
to have frustrated the BJP’s electoral aspirations in 2024.
the pace of India’s economic reforms reportedly have
Some observers assess that tackling these issues is likely to
expressed concerns that a coalition government may have
command Delhi’s agenda; one views a call for more
less ability to drive major initiatives.
inclusive development as the central message of the
electorate.
As the U.S. government remains focused on checking
China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific, U.S.-India
Modi, a self-avowed Hindu nationalist and purveyor of
security cooperation is likely to continue growing. More
“Hindutva,” and top BJP figures have long deployed anti-
broadly—and even as the “Modi 3.0” government is
Muslim rhetoric, which appears more common during
considered likely to turn more attention inward—leaders in
election seasons. Communal hate speech—issued at times
both capitals seek to deepen ongoing bilateral cooperation
by senior BJP figures—has reportedly spiked in India since
in an array of critical and emerging technologies, along
Modi became prime minister, as has online harassment by
with other extensive engagements.
BJP proponents. The BJP’s decade-long pursuit of muscular
religious majoritarianism at the national level (about 80%
It is unclear if PM Modi will adopt a less confrontational
of Indians are Hindu) has alarmed human rights watchdogs
approach to politics in coalition, or reemphasize the
and religious freedom advocates who seek to prevent the
communal and autocratic aspects of his agenda. If the latter,
erosion of India’s syncretic and secular traditions, and may
Members of Congress may remain watchful of India’s
have been a further factor in BJP seat losses.
course on democracy, human rights, and religious freedom.
Some experts warn that the risk of authoritarianism has not
Many observers both domestically and abroad—including
vanished, that India’s “re-democratization” is far from
within the U.S. Congress—have expressed concerns about
assured, and that these election results should not be viewed
the broader status of human rights, religious freedom, and
as a defeat of Hindutva.
signs of antidemocratic practices and autocracy in India
under Modi. In the lead-up to this election, critiques
K. Alan Kronstadt, Specialist in South Asian Affairs
included alleged election-related malfeasance by the
government. Several hundred politicians came under
IF12686
https://crsreports.congress.gov

India’s 2024 National Election

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