2022 Nuclear Posture Review: Selected Programmatic Issues

2022 Nuclear Posture Review: Selected Programmatic Issues

March 24, 2023
2022 Nuclear Posture Review: Selected Programmatic Issues
Background
strategic regional presence,” without reference to any
specific region, and an “arms control-compliant response”
The unclassified 2022 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), a
to “destabilizing” Russian behaviors . The Navy started its
legislatively mandated document (10 U.S.C., Ch. 24),
Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) for such a program in 2019.
describes the Biden Administration’s plans to continue to
modernize U.S. nuclear forces and infrastructure. That
The 2022 NPR, which supersedes the guidance from the
modernization process began under the Obama and Trump
2018 NPR, announced the program’s cancellation, asserting
Administrations. The NPR reaffirms the continued
that the SLCM-N was “no longer necessary,” given the
deployment of nuclear warheads deliverable by a triad of
existence of the low-yield W76-2 warhead, uncertainty
aircraft and land- and submarine-based missiles. Proposed
about leverage it could provide in arms control negotiation,
policy changes include cancelation of the nuclear-armed
and cost.
sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM-N) and retirement of
the B83-1 gravity bomb. The NPR also outlines the
In its FY2023 budget request, the Navy eliminated research
Administration’s plans for revitalizing the U.S. nuclear
and development funding for the SLCM-N, indicating that
weapons complex and delivery systems industrial base.
the program was “cost prohibitive and the acquisition
schedule would have delivered capability late to need.”
Conceptual Changes and Updates
According to Navy FY2023 budget documents, this
The 2022 NPR introduces a country-specific approach to
cancellation would save $199.2 million in FY2023 and $2.1
deterrence, in which nuclear weapons capabilities “further
billion over the next five years.
strengthen regional deterrence” and assure allies. The NPR
does not specify whether a country-specific approach would
Triad Modernization
require additional modifications to the program of record,
Since the end of the Cold War, DOD and the National
which is the official nuclear acquisition plan. See CRS In
Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) have focused on
Focus IF12266, 2022 Nuclear Posture Review, for greater
life extension programs (LEPs), including sustainment of
detail on NPR policy changes.
and improvements to existing weapons or delivery systems
instead of making new capabilities. The 2022 NPR argues
The NPR also calls for integrated deterrence, which entails
that most of the U.S. nuclear deterrent systems are
seamless work across all instruments of U.S. national power
“operating beyond their original design life” and “full-
to incentivize restraint for opponents. This aligns with the
scope” replacement of the triad, including nuclear
2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS), the broader
command, control, and communications (NC3) systems.
strategy document of which the NPR is a part. The NDS
calls for the United States to employ “tailored deterrence
The 2022 NPR emphasizes a limited window for deploying
approaches,” but does not explain this concept in detail,
replacements for many current nuclear capabilities to
according to some critics, including former Trump and
“avoid any gaps in our ability to field a credible and
Obama Administration officials.
effective deterrent.” The 2022 NPR endorses the following
programs, as reflected in the FY2023 President’s Defense
Program Cancellations
Budget Request:
B83-1 Gravity Bomb Retirement
 Full funding for the Sentinel ICBM replacement
The United States originally deployed the B83-1 gravity
program, which would replace the Minuteman III and
bomb during the 1980s for use against hard and deeply
maintain 400 ICBMs on alert. Sentinel will field the
buried targets (HDBTs, e.g., underground bunkers), and it
W87-0/Mk21 and W87-1/Mk21A replacement warhead
remains the largest-yield bomb in the U.S. nuclear arsenal.
and reentry vehicle (RV);
The 2022 NPR found that the B83-1 has “increasing
limitations on its capabilities and rising maintenance costs.”
 Full funding for Columbia-class ballistic missile
Department of Defense (DOD) leadership called for a
submarines, including the delivery of “a minimum of 12
follow-on study, which began in late 2022, of methods for
boats” beginning in 2030. The NPR also calls for “near-
managing potential future threats that have been targeted
term investments in the submarine construction
with HDBT.
industrial base.” In addition, the review recommends
that DOD “prioritize near-term investment” in the
Nuclear-Armed SLCM Cancellation
Trident II D5 Strategic Weapons System second life
The 2018 NPR directed DOD to develop a modern nuclear-
extension and continue the W93/Mk7 replacement
capable sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM-N), stating a
warhead and aeroshell program;
need for a nuclear weapon that could provide a “non-
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2022 Nuclear Posture Review: Selected Programmatic Issues
 Modernizing the B-52H Stratofortress bomber fleet
cost to produce 80 pits per year by 2030. The 2022 NPR
through 2050 and full funding for acquiring a
describes pit production as the “highest priority for the
“minimum of 100” B-21 Raider bombers, which are to
next ten years,” and endorses NNSA’s 2-site production
replace the B2A Spirit fleet;
facility strategy at Los Alamos National Laboratory and
Savannah River Production Facility to “eliminate single
 Full funding for the Long-Range Standoff (LRSO)
point failure and provide flexible capability options”;
weapon and associated W80-4 life extension program
(LEP);
 Secondary explosion production: The 2022 NPR
endorses completion of the Uranium Processing Facility
 Continuing nuclear certification of the F35-A Dual-
(UPF) and lithium processing facility, and
Capable Aircraft (DCA) and transition from the F-15E
modernization of depleted uranium facilities. The UPF
to the F-35A; and
and lithium processing facility are located at the Y-12
National Security Complex in Oakridge, TN, and the
 Replacing B61-3/4/7 gravity bombs with the B61-12
depleted uranium facilities are located at the Portsmouth
LEP.
Site;
NC3 Systems
 High explosives and energetic materials production
The 2022 NPR reiterates prior NPRs concerning the need to
capabilities, with special attention to “eliminat[ing]
modernize many systems that make up U.S. NC3
single points of failure”; and
architecture and its support infrastructure, including
satellites, aircraft, and communications centers. The NPR
 Nonnuclear component production, including strategic
calls for an “optimized mix of resilience approaches to
radiation-hardened microelectronics.
protect the next-generation NC3 architecture.” The
approaches include improved command post and
Additionally, the NPR tasks NNSA with establishing a
communication links, advanced decision support, and
“Science and Technology Initiative” to improve science and
protection from competitor capabilities.
technology (S&T) integration throughout its programs as it
modernizes its production capabilities.
Nuclear Complex “Production and
Support Infrastructure”
The NPR says that the United States continues to observe a
The NPR also discusses broader issues concerning the
moratorium on nuclear explosive testing. NNSA conducts
nuclear production complex. The National Nuclear Security
subcritical (i.e., those that do not produce a nuclear yield)
Administration (NNSA), a separately organized agency
experiments and uses other tools to maintain stockpile
within the Department of Energy, maintains and
reliability. The 2018 NPR stated that “the United States will
modernizes the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile in
not resume nuclear explosive testing unless necessary to
coordination with DOD.
ensure the safety and effectiveness of the U.S. nuclear
arsenal.” The 2022 NPR notes that the United States
The 2022 NPR states that NNSA’s Stockpile Stewardship
“maintains a nuclear explosive test readiness program in the
Program (SSP) has maintained life-extended nuclear
event it is required to resolve technical uncertainties,” but
warheads that are safe, secure, and effective, with a focus
“does not envision or desire a return to nuclear testing.”
on maintenance and science-based assessment capabilities
that do not require nuclear explosive testing. Noting that a
The 2018 NPR introduced a “hedging strategy” to “meet
strategy of “partial refurbishment” of the U.S. nuclear
future risks and challenges.” This strategy called for
stockpile “no longer serves our interests,” the 2022 NPR
establishing a “robust nuclear weapon production
endorses full-scale NNSA production capacity
infrastructure” allowing for rapid production, as well as
modernization.
maintaining a “significant non-deployed inventory of
weapons.” The 2022 NPR eliminates the hedging strategy
The 2022 NPR argues that the coming decades will bring a
as a “formal role of nuclear weapons,” but notes that DOD
need for NNSA development of a Production-Based
and NNSA will address potential risks “through a resilient
Resilience Program (PRP). This program calls for NNSA to
and adaptive nuclear enterprise.” This indicates a change in
develop “full-scope production” capabilities, with an
strategy to address risk by focusing on production capacity
emphasis on flexibility, supply-chain security and
instead of focusing on maintaining an inventory of non-
resilience, and production capacity margin. Supplementing
deployed weapons. The review does not mention any non-
the NNSA’s sustainment-focused SSP, the PRP includes
deployed inventory of nuclear weapons as a risk mitigation
increased production capabilities, new weapons designs,
option, as the 2018 NPR does.
and modernized nuclear enterprise infrastructure.
For additional information about warhead funding and
Finally, the NPR defines the following as major NNSA
development, see CRS Report R46857, Energy and Water
production priorities requiring significant investment:
Development: FY2022 Appropriations, by Mark Holt,
Corrie E. Clark, and Anna E. Normand.
 Primary explosion production: Some in Congress and
DOD have questioned NNSA’s ability to produce the
Alexandra G. Neenan, Analyst in U.S. Defense
congressionally mandated 80 plutonium pits per year
Infrastructure Policy
(50 U.S.C. §2538a) as well as the planned schedule and
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2022 Nuclear Posture Review: Selected Programmatic Issues

IF12357

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