Violent Crime Trends, 1990-2021

Violent Crime Trends, 1990-2021

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December 12, 2022
Violent Crime Trends, 1990-2021
Since the 1930s, the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s
758.2 violent crimes per 100,000 people. The violent crime
(FBI’s) Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program has
rate has generally decreased since 1991. There was an
collected data on reported crimes from federal, state, local,
increase in this rate in 2005 and 2006, after which it
and tribal law enforcement agencies and published
continued decreasing until 2014. The violent crime rate
nationwide crime statistics using these data. UCR compiles
increased from 2014 to 2016, from 361.6 to 397.5 per
and publishes the data and provides datasets and some trend
100,000; decreased between 2017 and 2019; and increased
analyses in a standardized format that law enforcement
again from 2019 to 2020. During the most recent increase,
agencies, researchers, and policymakers can access to better
the violent crime rate rose from 380.8 in 2019 to 398.5 per
understand crime in the United States.
100,000 in 2020. The rate observed in 2020 was still below
the peaks observed in the early 1990s and the increase in
Shifting Crime Data Collection Tools
the mid-2000s, but was close to the rate of 397.5 per
UCR previously collected crime data through the Summary
100,000 measured in 2016.
Reporting System (SRS); however, on January 1, 2021, the
FBI retired SRS in favor of the National Incident Based-
Figure 1. Violent Crime and Homicide Rates,
Reporting System (NIBRS). NIBRS was developed to
1990-2020
address several shortcomings of SRS. For example, NIBRS
Rate per 100,000 People
expands the number of crimes for which data are collected
and captures details about these crimes that were not
previously measured in SRS (e.g., the relationship between
the victim and offender).
While NIBRS has recently became the FBI’s primary crime
data collection tool, it was first made available to law
enforcement agencies beginning in the late 1980s. In the
ensuing years, agencies could report their crime data in
either the SRS or NIBRS formats. In 2016, the FBI
announced their intention to retire SRS as of January 1,
2021. This meant that 2021 would be the first year for
which crime data were collected solely through NIBRS.
Despite the 2016 announcement, many law enforcement
agencies did not adopt NIBRS; as a result, participation

rates in the UCR program dropped in 2021 (when 62.7% of
Source: UCR Program.
law enforcement agencies submitted NIBRS data to the
FBI). These lower participation rates required the FBI to
Similarly, during the years considered, the national
adjust their data analysis and reporting procedures.
homicide rate (red line) peaked during 1991 at 9.8
homicides per 100,000 people. The rate generally decreased
Because there is only a single year of NIBRS data and new
from there, with small increases in some years during the
procedures had to be adopted to account for the low
2000s but never exceeding more than an 0.2% uptick in
participation rates, the FBI stated that the 2021 data cannot
consecutive years. Similar to the violent crime rate, the
be integrated into longitudinal analyses that mix NIBRS
national homicide rate began to show an increase beginning
and SRS methodologies. Therefore, crime data from 2021
in 2015, growing from 4.9 per 100,000 in 2014 to 5.4 in
are discussed separately from earlier crime data in this In
2015. The homicide rate remained in a range of 5.0 to 5.4
Focus.
per 100,000 until 2020 when it increased to 6.5 homicides
per 100,000 people.
Violent Crime Trends, 1990-2020
UCR data on violent crime includes homicide (i.e.,
For the other offenses included in the violent crime index,
murder/non-negligent manslaughter), rape, robbery, and
data indicated the following changes from 2019 to 2020:
aggravated assault. Data are published about each offense

individually as well as in a composite measure—the violent
The rate of aggravated assault increased from 250.4 to
crime index.
279.4 offenses per 100,000 people.

This section focuses on the violent crime and homicide
The rape and robbery rates both decreased (from 43.6 to
rates from 1990 to 2020. As demonstrated in Figure 1, the
38.4 and from 81.8 to 73.9 per 100,000 people,
national violent crime rate (blue line) peaked in 1991 at
respectively).
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Violent Crime Trends, 1990-2021
Violent Crime, 2021
The number of robberies decreased by 8.2% between 2020
The FBI released nationwide crime data in 2021 even
and 2021. Although this decrease was not statistically
though participation in NIBRS was low. These data were
significant, it is consistent with the downward trend
generated using new estimation procedures developed by
observed from 2019 to 2020. Notably, the FBI determined
the FBI in partnership with the Bureau of Justice Statistics
that the diminished number of robberies was the main
(BJS) to account for missing data from nonreporting law
driver of the decrease in the overall violent crime index.
enforcement agencies and those that reported incomplete
annual data. The FBI has used estimation procedures to
In summary, the increase in violent crime observed from
account for missing data since the 1960s. An August 2022
2019 to 2020 did not continue in 2021, nor was it reversed.
report from the FBI stated that in the past, about 95% of the
There were non-statistically significant increases observed
population was covered in SRS data. This level of coverage
in the number of homicides and rapes in 2021, and non-
was not achieved in the 2021 NIBRS data, and as a result
statistically significant decreases observed in the number of
new estimation procedures were necessary to account for
robberies and aggravated assaults as well as in the overall
the lower participation rate.
violent crime index.
This section summarizes the findings in two FBI reports,
Policy Considerations
2021 Crime in the Nation Summary and The Transition to
The coming years may be indicative of how UCR reporting
the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS): A
could change during the NIBRS era. If participation rates
Comparison of 2020 and 2021 NIBRS Estimates, both of
remain relatively low, the FBI could try to adopt a long-
which were released in October 2022. These reports used
term strategy to address crime data gaps or the federal
estimates generated from NIBRS data collected during
government may consider whether to invest greater
2020 and 2021, which makes it appropriate to compare
resources in an effort to convince law enforcement agencies
these data to each other. As discussed earlier, SRS data
to adopt NIBRS.
should not be analyzed or graphed alongside NIBRS data;
however, trends (e.g., increase in homicide rate) observed
Beyond concerns about data quality, low rates of NIBRS
in SRS data can be discussed relative to those seen in
adoption may also affect law enforcement agencies’ access
NIBRS data.
to federal funding. Several federal grants, most notably the
Edward Byrne Memorial Justice Assistance Grant (JAG)
The FBI’s analyses indicate that the violent crime index
program, use UCR crime data to calculate allocations for
remained relatively stable between 2020 and 2021. The
state, local, and tribal governments. JAG funds are
number of violent crimes decreased by 1%, but this change
allocated using a statutorily defined formula under which
was not statistically significant. The FBI advised that the
50% of a state’s JAG allocation is based on its share of the
stability between 2020 and 2021 should be considered in
population and the other half on the number of violent
the context of the increase observed between 2019 and
crimes (i.e., homicide, rape, robbery, and aggravated
2020. In other words, while violent crime may not have
assault) reported to the FBI. Any state that does not adopt
significantly changed between 2020 and 2021, it remains
NIBRS may lose out on the funds determined by the
situated within the upward trend that began in 2019.
number of crimes reported to UCR.
The number of homicides increased by 4.3% between 2020
Although estimation procedures can be used to approximate
and 2021; however, this increase was not statistically
national crime trends, gathering data from a larger
significant. Here again, the 2021 homicide count should be
proportion of law enforcement agencies would result in
placed in the context of the prior increase. In this case, the
more precise federal crime data. Congress could consider
non-statistically significant increase in homicide from 2020
offering incentives or leveraging penalties to encourage law
to 2021 should be considered in the context of the upward
enforcement agencies to adopt NIBRS. Congress may target
general trend that was observed in the SRS data beginning
these efforts at smaller agencies that struggle to meet the
in 2015.
increased technological requirements for NIBRS or at
larger agencies that have yet to implement the program.
The number of aggravated assaults decreased by 0.1%
between 2020 and 2021. This change was not statistically
For more information on the adoption of NIBRS, see CRS
significant. The aggravated assault rate increased between
Report R46668, The National Incident-Based Reporting
2019 and 2020, and thus the FBI interpreted the 2021 data
System (NIBRS): Benefits and Issues; and CRS Insight
to mean that after the prior year’s increase the aggravated
IN11936, NIBRS Participation Rates and Federal Crime
assault rate remained stable in 2021.
Data Quality. For more information on the JAG program,
see CRS In Focus IF10691, The Edward Byrne Memorial
The number of rapes increased by 3.4% between 2020 and
Justice Assistance Grant (JAG) Program.
2021; however, this increase was not statistically
significant. The rate of rapes decreased between 2019 and

2020, so this nonstatistically significant increase can be
interpreted to indicate that after the prior year’s decrease
Emily J. Hanson, Analyst Social Policy
the rate of rape remained stable in 2021.
IF12281

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Violent Crime Trends, 1990-2021

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