Zambia: 2021 Elections and New Government

Zambia: 2021 Elections and New Government

December 21, 2021
Zambia: 2021 Elections and New Government
In Zambia’s August 2021 general elections, longtime
challenging the outcome in court. Ultimately, given
opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema won the presidential
Hichilema’s large margin of victory and reported U.S. and
race with 59% of votes—after five prior unsuccessful runs.
other behind-the-scenes diplomatic pressure, Lungu
In concurrent National Assembly elections, his United Party
accepted the results and conceded defeat, permitting a
for National Development (UPND) party won a majority; it
constitutional transfer of power to Hichilema.
holds 56% of 165 seats, including appointed ones.
U.S. post-poll statements, including from Members of
2021 Election: Controversies
Congress, lauded the electoral process and the “peaceful
Several controversies preceded the 2021 vote. One centered on
transfer of power” to Hichilema by then-President Edgar
Lungu’s eligibility for a third term, which the Constitutional Court
Lungu of the Patriotic Front (PF) party. Secretary of State
ruled was legal, given the partial nature of his first term. (He won that
Antony Blinken later called “Zambia’s unshakeable
term in a 2015 by-election to choose a successor to President
commitment to democratic ideals... an inspiration to all who
Michael Sata, who died in late 2014, and complete Sata’s term. In
seek the freedom, prosperity, and justice.” He attributed the
2016, Lungu won a full term.) The Lungu government also tried—but
elections’ success, in part, to the participation of “a record
failed—to pass a wide-ranging constitutional amendment bill. The bill
number of young and first-time voters.” (Voter turnout, at
would have broadly expanded executive power and amended
69%, was the highest since 2006.) Opposition activists
presidential election laws in a manner that critics saw as intended to
elsewhere in Africa hailed the outcome as demonstrating
enable Lungu to eke out a narrow win in an anticipated close 2021
that years of dogged opposition activism can result in the
race and continue in office with broadened authorities.
democratic ouster of powerful incumbent regimes.
The opposition also interpreted Electoral Commission (EC) decisions
Hichilema has pledged to reverse negative human rights
to scrap an existing voter register, rapidly compile a new one in late
and civil liberties trends under Lungu, such as arbitrary
2020, and not allow independent auditing of the new registry as
detentions of opposition leaders and civil society activists,
favoring Lungu. The new registry significantly expanded the number of
police repression of peaceful protests and opposition events,
voters in historical PF strongholds and decreased in those in pro-
and forced closures or suspensions of some media outlets.
UPND areas. The EC also drew criticism for suspending campaigning
U.S. officials have welcomed Hichilema’s governance
to dampen election violence and COVID-19 transmission risks. The
agenda and announced development aid in support of it.
action allegedly targeted UPND activities primarily, however; critics
2021 General Election
asserted that PF-affiliated state officials continued to campaign the
guise of carrying out official business.
Ahead of the 2021 polls, a number of news reports and
polling by Afrobarometer (an independent public opinion
research network) indicated that Lungu and his PF party
Hichilema: Background and Priorities
would face strong political headwinds. Factors cited
Hichilema, born in 1962 in a rural southern town, grew up
included a sharp drop in growth rates, high unemployment
herding cattle. He later earned several higher education
and public debt, public service delivery shortcomings,
degrees, including an MBA, and headed local affiliates of
corruption, and growing opposition to the government’s
two blue chip accounting and business consulting firms. He
alleged use of authoritarian tactics—over which Senate
also has been a private enterprise promoter and investor
Foreign Relation Committee Chairman Robert Menendez
active in the finance, health, tourism, and other sectors.
raised concerns in August 2021. A range of analysts,
Hichilema’s
however, speculated that the Lungu government might use
political career began in 2006, when he was
selected to be the UPND’
its powers of incumbency—including control over state
s leader and presidential nominee
media, the national security apparatus, and public order
after the death of UPND founder Anderson Mazoka.
laws—to enable Lungu and his PF to retain power.
Hichilema proved to be a vocal opposition leader and was
repeatedly detained or questioned by police, often on
Days prior to polling day, the government deployed the
arguably dubious grounds after sparring with incumbent
military to bolster security and curtail high levels of
governments. Political tensions between the UPND and the
election violence by rival party supporters after the killing
PF increased after Lungu’s 2016 re-election. In 2017,
of two PF backers. Some observers saw this move as
Hichilema was arrested on treason charges, though the case
potentially intimidating to opposition supporters, given an
was later suspended and he was released after mediation by
alleged prior pattern of anti-UPND law enforcement actions
the Commonwealth. Political tensions then decreased for a
by police, which had drawn U.S. admonishment. On voting
time, but grew again in 2019 and 2020 in advance of the
day, authorities restricted social media, with implications
2021 polls and over issues such as the government’s
for vote results monitoring and reporting transparency,
attempt to amend the constitution (see Textbox above).
though a court halted that action. After the vote, Lungu—
Hichilema’s stated priorities are to promote good
who, citing various bases, had threatened to have his
opponent arrested after the election—claimed that the
governance and economic growth, foster fiscal and debt
process was not free and fair and reportedly considered
sustainability, and reduce poverty, notably through efforts
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Zambia: 2021 Elections and New Government
to create jobs and socioeconomic equity and inclusion.
constitutional checks and balances. He also has vowed to
Women and youth, reported core bases of support for the
support civil society-advocated reform efforts and ensure
UPND, are key targets of such efforts; Hichilema has
respect for media freedom, civil liberties, and human rights.
pledged to prioritize political and economic gender
His government has hedged on repeal of the historically
equality, female access to education, and women’s
repressive Public Order Act, however, and some observers
participation in governance. His Vice President, Mutale
see his approach to civil service reform as partisan. He also
Nalumango, is a woman, and the UPND elected females as
has pledged zero-tolerance for corruption, which had
speaker and deputy speaker of parliament.
reportedly grown under Lungu, but also has suggested that
Economy
amnesty might be permitted for past corruption if illicitly-
acquired funds are returned to the state. How such an
Zambia is a top global copper producer, though
amnesty might work is unclear, and in late 2021, police
employment is highly concentrated in the agriculture sector.
arrested an ex-foreign minister on corruption charges.
Poverty is widespread, and the economy has faced
headwinds in recent years. The economic growth rate fell
Figure 1. Zambia at Glance
from 4.0% in 2018 to 1.4% in 2019, before contracting by
3.1% in 2020, according to the International Monetary Fund
(IMF). Meanwhile, inflation rose and unemployment rates
remained high, notably among youth, whose jobless rate is
roughly double that of the broader adult labor force. To
foster growth, the new government seeks to diversify the
economy, expand productivity, attract and protect local and
foreign investment by fostering a stable, transparent

business environment, and support small and medium
Source: CIA, World Bank, and IMF reference databases.
business growth and entrepreneurship generally. Key state

sectoral investment targets include agriculture, mining,
energy, financial services, tourism, as well as technology,
U.S. Assistance and Relations
healthcare, and education. Hichilema also has prioritized
Roughly $9 million in U.S. aid supported the 2021 electoral
efforts to address climate change impacts, including by
process, with a focus on civil society-led electoral cycle and
establishing a Green Economy and Environment Ministry.
vote observation, education, and political inclusion efforts
Debt
centering on empowering women, youth, and those with
Zambia’
disabilities. This aid also supported technical support for
s external debt grew rapidly under Lungu, more
the EC and reform of the repressive Public Order Act.
than doubling between 2015 and 2020, the World Bank
reported, as public spending ballooned and growth
U.S. officials welcomed the democratic transfer of power to
withered. The Hichilema administration estimates that as of
Hichilema, who met with U.S. Agency for International
June 2021, total national debt stock stood at nearly $27
Development (USAID) Administrator Samantha Power
billion. These data show that Chinese state and private
days after the vote. She commended “the critical...vigilant
firms, which often use Chinese state-linked credit, are owed
oversight” of civil society in enhancing “the transparency of
$5.9 billion, about 36% of the foreign portion of this debt.
the electoral process and... widespread confidence in the
(Separate prior World Bank and private analysts’ estimates
results, despite the constraints imposed by the government.”
suggest that total and Chinese-owed debt could be even
They also discussed his anti-corruption and governance
higher; the Lungu government reportedly withheld some
agenda, and Power pledged ongoing U.S. partnership with
loan data on national security or other grounds.)
the new government, building upon past congressionally-
authorized support for Zambia in the areas of health,
State debt is concentrated in the power sector, which is
education, climate change, economic growth, and
ailing, leading to periodic blackouts and hindering copper
democracy and governance. In September, Hichilema met
processing, the source of about 80% of Zambia’s export
at the White House with Vice President Kamala Harris,
earnings in 2019 and a target of substantial Chinese
who lauded his governance and economic agendas and
investment. In late 2020, Zambia become the first African
welcomed a deepening of bilateral ties.
country to default on its external debt during the COVID-19
pandemic. The default, a missed payment to Eurobond
Zambia, which joined in the Biden Administration’s late
holders, followed these creditors’ refusal to renegotiate
2021 Summit for Democracy, was allocated an estimated
repayment due to a lack of data on debt owed to China and
$441 million in USAID and State Department development
their reported fear that any concessions offered would
aid in FY2021, much of it focused on healthcare projects,
effectively subsidize repayments to Chinese lenders. In late
notably to counter HIV/AIDS. Zambia also has received
2021, the Hichilema government and the IMF reached a
U.S. vaccine donations and at least $34 million in
tentative lending agreement that would support the
emergency U.S. aid to combat COVID-19. Since
government’s economic and governance reform agenda.
Hichilema’s election, the United States has separately
The IMF also has indicated that it may push for Zambian
pledged at least $23 million in new aid supporting civil
debt renegotiation under the G20 Common Framework.
liberties, governance reforms, and economic growth.
Governance
Nicolas Cook, Specialist in African Affairs
Hichilema has appointed new police and military leaders
and pledged to strengthen oversight of state institutions and
IF12005
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Zambia: 2021 Elections and New Government

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