Climate and Security in the Middle East and North Africa

Climate and Security in the Middle East and North Africa

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Updated September 13, 2023
Climate and Security in the Middle East and North Africa
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is
project less precipitation along MENA’s Mediterranean
among the world’s most water-stressed and vulnerable to
coast through this century; less agreement exists regarding
climate change impacts. Policymakers’ concerns about a
whether precipitation may increase or decrease in other
changing MENA climate include not only physical and
parts of the MENA region (e.g., Arabian Peninsula, Sahara
economic impacts but also the potential implications for
portion of various North Africa countries). Regarding
political stability and security in a volatile region.
precipitation extremes, some studies (e.g., Ozturk et al. in
Atmosphere, 2021) project an increase in precipitation
A Region Under Stress
amounts on very wet days for the end of this century for
Projections of various effects of climate change on the
much of the region, which may contribute to flooding.
largely arid and semi-arid MENA region are available,
although regional analyses are often constrained by limited
In September 2023, Storm Daniel (a medicane—a
data for MENA and downscaling from global models.
Mediterranean Sea storm with hurricane-type
Given MENA’s geographic span—from Morocco to Iran—
characteristics) led to torrential rains over eastern Libya,
and topographic variation (e.g., mountains, deserts, and
with flooding and dam failures affecting the city of Derna.
deltas), local effects may differ from regional trends.
Many thousands were displaced, and the loss of life may
exceed 5,000. Some research indicates that with a warmer
Average Temperatures and Hottest Days. Temperatures
climate, medicanes with the strongest winds may become
in the MENA region have increased for decades and are
stronger while medicanes overall may decrease in
projected to continue increasing through the end of the
frequency (e.g., Flaounas et al. in Weather and Climate
century. Figure 1 shows one projection of hottest day
Dynamics, 2022). Future trends in the development of
temperature increases by 2040. Some research suggests
medicanes may depend on competing climate-related
intensification of warm-season heat extremes in the region
variables (e.g., higher sea surface temperatures enhancing
(e.g., Zittis et al. in Climate and Atmospheric Science,
medicane strength versus higher air temperatures leading to
2021). Hotter conditions generally increase energy demand
less frequent medicanes).
for cooling and may negatively affect health, labor, and
agricultural productivity.
Rising sea levels are encroaching on MENA coastlines and
communities, thereby contributing to more frequent
Figure 1. 2040 Projections for MENA: Hottest Day
flooding and more extensive coastal storm flooding.
Temperatures and Longest Annual Drought Days
According to some researchers, by 2050, portions of Iraq’s
second-largest city of Basra and other southern Iraqi areas
could experience chronic coastal flooding. Alexandria,
Egypt, one of the most populous coastal cities in the Middle
East, also could be regularly flooded by rising sea levels.
Agriculture and Food. Much of MENA’s agriculture and
food production is rain-fed or consists of livestock.
Production and many rural agricultural livelihoods are
sensitive to changes in heat, drought, and precipitation
patterns. Additionally, some production in the region relies
on irrigation, which can be sensitive to surface water
availability and can contribute to overuse of aquifers.
Limited arable land, water scarcity, and other resource and
environmental constraints limit regional agricultural
Source: CRS adapted from U.S. National Intel igence Council (NIC),
production. The region has coped with population growth
Global Trends 2040, March 2021.
and urbanization by importing food. Reliance on food
Notes: The projections used the Representative Concentration
imports is anticipated to persist, with demographic and diet
Pathway 4.5. NIC’s data source was Schwingshackl, Sil man, and the
trends and changing agricultural growing conditions (e.g.,
Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research. NIC’s
effects of heat and drought on agricultural productivity) as
graphic source was Pardee Center, University of Denver.
contributing factors.
Water and Storms. Both droughts and floods occur in
How Climate May Interact with Security
MENA, with variability over time and place. Several
U.S. national security assessments have described climate
studies project increasingly lengthy droughts in some parts
change as a threat multiplier that may exacerbate existing
of MENA, including annual dry spells projected to last
tensions in regions facing other challenges, such as
longer by 2040 (Figure 1). Many (but not all) studies
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Climate and Security in the Middle East and North Africa
intrastate conflict, rapid population growth, urbanization, or
by 2030. However, these types of pledges have engendered
poor governance. The linkages from climate and weather
some skepticism. GCC state-owned oil companies may
events to political stability are complex, with intervening
increase production to meet rising energy demands from
critical factors such as social schisms and governance. In
China, India, and elsewhere.
the MENA region, where several countries (e.g., Syria,
Other MENA countries that are net hydrocarbon importers
Iraq, and Lebanon) are divided along ethnic/sectarian lines,
are adjusting or may adjust their energy policies. Morocco
armed substate actors and terrorist groups could broaden
has attempted to reduce its dependence on fossil fuel
their appeal to sectors of the population disaffected by
imports and aims to generate over half of its electricity from
hardships wrought by climate change.
renewable sources by 2030 (e.g., by building concentrated
Examples illustrate how climate conditions and weather
solar power capacity). Morocco’s government announced in
events could affect MENA’s future in terms of political
2019 that renewable sources composed an estimated 35% of
unrest, violent conflicts, and the well-being of its people.
its electricity production the prior year.
For instance, rising food prices or water shortages
The November 2022 United Nations Framework
previously have triggered urban unrest. Reliance on food
imports links MENA’s internal stability t
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 27th
o agricultural
Conference of Parties (COP27) yielded a series of global
conditions in exporting nations. Poor conditions in
discussions and agreements focused on greenhouse-gas
agricultural exporting countries contributed to reduced
(GHG) emissions reductions and other topics. Most
MENA food imports and associated food shortages in 2010-
countries—including many MENA countries—updated
2011. In the case of Syria, decades of land and groundwater
overuse in the nation’s breadbasket, combined with a 2006
their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) prior to
-
COP26 in 2021. NDCs represent each country’s
2010 drought and periods of spiking global oil and food
commitment to meeting the objectives of the Paris
prices, played a part in agricultural workers migrating to
Agreement (PA), a UNFCCC agreement intended to reduce
cities, where many were unable to find employment. When
Syria’s uprising began in 2011
the effects of climate change. For example, the UAE—the
, disaffected rural migrants
host country for COP28 in 2023—submitted an updated
formed the base of opposition against the regime of
NDC in 2023, pledging to reduce its GHG emissions 19%
President Bashar al Asad. In North Africa, local protests
by 2030 (compared with 2019 levels). In addition to NDCs,
about water shortages reportedly occurred in 2017-2018. In
some countries, including Bahrain, Israel, Oman, Saudi
Iraq, observers identified droughts as undermining rural
Arabia, and the UAE, have pledged to reach net-zero
Sunni livelihoods, which some argue may have helped fuel
emissions by mid-century. For the UAE, some observers
Islamic State recruitment.
question the interplay between its pledges to reduce
emissions, its stated plans to achieve net-zero emissions by
Some countries wil be able to afford expensive, new
2045 (e.g., adopting renewables and employing carbon
adaptations … but in many MENA countries,
capture), and its plans to increase its overall fossil fuel
governments’ inability to address water and heat
production.
challenges wil increase public frustration with government
performance and potentially spark new migration flows.
Related Efforts and Policies
—U.S. National Intelligence Council, 2021 Five-Year Regional
Various U.S. and MENA-related efforts to address climate
Outlook: Middle East and North Africa
change mitigation and adaptation are underway. In April
2021, President Biden hosted a summit on climate for 40
Climate change adaptation is anticipated to challenge the
world leaders, including some leaders from the MENA
capacities of poorer countries and politically unstable
region. At the summit, the Biden Administration committed
governments. Variations across MENA in national wealth
to exerting U.S. leadership in addressing climate change.
and state capacity to respond to climate and weather events
The Department of State and the U.S. Agency for
may lead to different efforts toward adaptation, such as
International Development are to coordinate “U.S.
improving regional drought monitoring, investing in water
government efforts to support countries around the world to
infrastructure and efficiency (e.g., Israel’s water reuse), and
enhance and meet their climate goals in ways that further
shifting to more heat-resilient crop varieties. Regional water
their national development priorities.” The White House
and energy cooperation also may expand. As of August
also announced a Net-Zero Producers Forum; the forum,
2023, Israel, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)
composed of the United States, Canada, Norway, Qatar,
continued their efforts to finalize a deal for “Project
Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, is for developing ideas to
Prosperity.” The project proposes UAE financing the
reduce energy-related emissions. Also, since COP26, the
construction of solar power capacity in Jordan and
United States and the UAE have led the Agriculture
subsequent electricity export from Jordan to Israel in
Innovation Mission for Climate; the coalition of 50
exchange for Israel supplying desalinated water to Jordan.
countries supports innovation and research to enhance
climate resiliency and reduce emissions from agriculture. In
Energy and Emissions Policies
September 2023, at the Africa Climate Summit, the UAE
Some oil-rich members of the Gulf Cooperation Council
pledged $4.5 billion in clean energy investments in Africa.
(GCC, composed of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait,
Oman, Qatar, and Bahrain) have undertaken efforts to
Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs
diversify their economies. In 2021, Saudi Crown Prince
Nicole T. Carter, Specialist in Natural Resources Policy
Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud announced that Saudi
Kezee Procita, Head Research and Library Services
Arabia, the world’s second-largest oil producer, seeks to
Section
generate half of its domestic energy from renewable sources
IF11878
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Climate and Security in the Middle East and North Africa

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