Burma: Key Issues in 2021

Burma: Key Issues in 2021

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Updated January 21, 2021
Burma: Key Issues in 2021
Burma (Myanmar) has been embroiled in a low-grade civil
for ending the civil war. A December 2020 JMC meeting
war between its military, known as the Tatmadaw, and over
made little progress on both issues.
20 ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) as far back as 1962,
Representatives of the Union Government, the Tatmadaw,
when the Tatmadaw overthrew a democratically elected
and the EAOs who have signed the 2015 ceasefire
civilian government. In 2011, the Tatmadaw handed power
agreement participated in a peace conference in August
over to a hybrid civilian-military Union Government based
2020, but the non-signatory EAOs did not attend. The
on a 2008 constitution largely written by the Tatmadaw.
conference produced no major results.
The Obama and Trump Administrations attempted to foster
Burma’s return to democratic civilian rule by supporting the
Figure 1. Intensity of Fighting by Ethnic State (2020)
Union Government and its current leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
Major Events in 2020
For Burma, the year 2020 was marked by the continued
intensification of the country’s civil war, stalled peace talks,
marred parliamentary elections, investigations of
allegations of genocide, and the outbreak of the
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Aung
San Suu Kyi and her political party, the National League
for Democracy (NLD), retained a supermajority following
the November parliamentary elections, securing five more
years in office.
Civil War
Burma’s civil war intensified in 2020, despite the
Tatmadaw declaring a unilateral ceasefire covering most of
the nation, except Rakhine State (see Figure 1). Fighting
between the Arakan Army (AA) and the Tatmadaw in
Rakhine State escalated throughout the year, until the AA
offered a ceasefire in November 2020 to allow special
parliamentary elections to be held in Rakhine State. The
AA, Tatmadaw, and Union Government are discussing
terms for holding the special elections.
In Shan State, frequent clashes occurred between EAOs and
the Tatmadaw, as parties attempted to secure control over
new territory. In Kayin (Karen) State, the Karen National
Liberation Army (KNLA), the armed wing of the Karen
National Union (KNU), called on the Tatmadaw to remove
its troops from KNU-controlled territory after the
Tatmadaw continued work on a major roadbuilding project.

The fighting has internally displaced tens of thousands of
Source: CRS, with data provided by the Armed Conflict Location
civilians, and has given rise to allegations of human rights
and Event Data Project (ACLED).
abuses, particularly by the Tatmadaw.
ICC and ICJ Cases
Peace Talks
In late 2017, the Tatmadaw launched “clearance
In 2015, the Union Government, the Tatmadaw, and eight
operations” against the Rohingya, a predominately Muslim
of the EAOs signed a multiparty ceasefire agreement.
ethnic minority in Rakhine State, after an EAO, the Arakan
Efforts in 2020 by Aung San Suu Kyi to persuade more
Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), attacked security
EAOs to sign the 2015 ceasefire agreement were
outposts near the border with Bangladesh. More than
unsuccessful. In March 2020, the Joint Ceasefire
700,000 Rohingya fled to Bangladesh, alleging that the
Monitoring Committee (JMC) established by the 2015
Tatmadaw soldiers committed serious human rights
ceasefire agreement held its first meeting since two of the
violations during the “clearance operations.”
EAOs—the KNU and the Reconstruction Council of Shan
In November 2019, the Gambia filed a case with the
State (RCSS)—suspended participation in November 2018
International Court of Justice (ICJ), accusing the Union
to protest what they perceived as Tatmadaw recalcitrance to
Government of violating the Convention on the Prevention
address ceasefire violations and discuss reasonable terms
https://crsreports.congress.gov

Burma: Key Issues in 2021
and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in their 2017
Addressing the Effects of the Civil War
assault on the Rohingya. In that same month, the
Burma’s civil war has created more than 1 million refugees,
International Criminal Court (ICC) authorized its
mostly Rohingya, in Bangladesh; tens of thousands of other
Prosecutor to proceed with an investigation of the alleged
ethnic minority refugees in Thailand; and an estimated
forced displacement of the Rohingya into Bangladesh and
200,000 IDPs within Burma who are in need of assistance
other alleged crimes.
and protection. According to the United Nations, since
On January 23, 2020, the ICJ issued “provisional measures”
2017, the estimated annual cost of the humanitarian
assistance for the refugees in Bangladesh has exceeded $1
requiring that the Union Government and the Tatmadaw
prevent acts that violate the genocide convention, and “take
billion, and assistance for Burma’s IDPs totaled more than
$200 million. Since fiscal year 2017, the United States has
effective measures to prevent the destruction and ensure the
preservation of evidence” related to possible criminal acts
contributed more than $1 billion in humanitarian assistance.
under the genocide convention. Despite the ICJ’s
In addition, allegations of human rights violations
requirements, human rights organizations assert that the
committed by the Tatmadaw and some of the EAOs
Union Government and the Tatmadaw have failed to abide
continue to be reported in the national press, while the ICC
by the provisional measures, and continue to engage in
and the ICJ proceed with their investigations of past abuses.
genocidal acts and actively destroy evidence.
The Union Government is supposed to submit its next
Parliamentary Elections
report to the ICJ by the end of July 2021.
On November 8, 2020, parliamentary elections were held
Promoting Peace
across the nation, with the exception of northern Rakhine
Aung San Suu Kyi has plans to resuscitate the moribund
State and parts of Shan State, locations where the Union
peace process in 2021, but several of the major EAOs are
Election Commission (UEC) determined the ongoing civil
highly skeptical of the Tatmadaw’s willingness to negotiate.
war made voting unsafe. A coalition of ethnic minority
Congress appropriated funds in FY2021 “for ethnic groups
parties mounted an unsuccessful campaign to win a
and civil society in Burma to help sustain ceasefire
majority of the seats in the nation’s seven ethnic states. The
NLD won more than 80% of the contested seats in Burma’s
agreements and further prospects for reconciliation and
peace, which may include support to representatives of
Union Parliament. The pro-military Union Solidarity and
ethnic armed groups for this purpose.” In addition, USAID
Development Party (USDP) won fewer seats than it did in
has contributed to the Joint Peace Fund, which “provides
the 2015 parliamentary elections.
direct support to the [Union] Government and Ethnic
The elections were marred by procedural decisions by the
Armed Organizations’ efforts in the peace process as well
UEC that disenfranchised more than 1 million eligible
as supporting peace process mechanisms that involve many
voters. For the second time since 2011, Rohingya were
stakeholders, including political parties and civil society.”
denied the right to vote in parliamentary elections. For more
Managing Intra-government Relations
about the parliamentary elections, see CRS In Focus
The success of the NLD in the 2020 parliamentary elections
IF11687, Burma’s 2020 Parliamentary Elections.
is expected to return Aung San Suu Kyi to power and
Coronavirus Pandemic
provide some continuity to the Union Government. Senior
Burma reported its first confirmed COVID-19 case on
General Min Aung Hlaing may remain as Commander-in-
March 23, 2020, and its first local confirmed case on July
Chief of the Tatmadaw (despite exceeding the mandatory
16, 2020. The number of cases began to rise in early August
retirement age), or step aside and appoint a new leader for
and reached a peak of nearly 1,500 per day in October
Burma’s military. Aung San Suu Kyi has reached out to the
2020. The city of Yangon and Rakhine State have
ethnic minority political parties to discuss improving
experienced the largest number of cases. In Kayin State, the
relations. Several of the parties accepted her offer, but
Tatmadaw reportedly destroyed several COVID-19 testing
several others remain skeptical, given her perceived
centers set up by the KNU.
disregard of minority concerns over the last five years.
U.S. Response
Status of U.S. Restrictions on Relations
In general, the Trump Administration continued the Obama
Most of the laws placing restrictions on relations with
Administration policy of attempting to foster democratic
Burma remain in effect, but their enforcement has been
developments in Burma. This was done by suspending
suspended by a presidential Executive Order issued by
restrictions on relations with Burma imposed after the
President Obama in 2016. The Consolidated Appropriations
Tatmadaw seized power and supporting reforms by the
Act, 2021 (P.L. 116-260), places additional restrictions on
Union Government. Via the annual appropriation acts, the
relations with Burma, including
116th Congress provided humanitarian assistance to
 A ban on assistance to entities owned by the Tatmadaw;
Burmese refugees in Bangladesh and Thailand, as well as
 A prohibition on funding for International Military
internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Burma. The
Education and Training (IMET) and Foreign Military
appropriation acts also placed restrictions on U.S. relations
Financing Program (FMF Program) in Burma; and
with Burma, particularly with the Tatmadaw.
 A ban on the sale of U.S. military equipment to Burma.
Key Issues in 2021
Several issues are likely to figure prominently in Burma’s
For more details on U.S. restrictions on relations with
Burma, see CRS Report R44570, U.S. Restrictions on
year ahead, and may factor in U.S. relations with the nation.
Relations with Burma.
Michael F. Martin, Specialist in Asian Affairs
https://crsreports.congress.gov

Burma: Key Issues in 2021

IF11733
Kirt Smith, Research Assistant

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