Middle East: Key Issues for the 117th Congress

Middle East: Key Issues for the 117th Congress

January 13, 2021
Middle East: Key Issues for the 117th Congress
The Middle East in 2021 faces continued political
movement, which sought to seize the capital in 2019.
instability, civil wars, terrorist threats, economic crises, the
Russian military contractors have intervened in Libya on
proliferation of unconventional weapons, external military
behalf of the LNA, while Turkey provides overt military
intervention, and the ongoing spread of the Coronavirus
support to the GNA. Both sides have recruited and
Disease 2019 (COVID-19). It remains to be seen whether
deployed Syrian militias. A U.N.-led political process
the territorial defeat of the Islamic State (IS) organization
envisions national elections in December 2021, and U.N.
and the recent diplomatic normalization agreements
observers may deploy to monitor the ceasefire.
brokered by the Trump Administration between Israel and
Counterterrorism has remained a top U.S. priority in Libya,
several Arab states augur improved regional stability. U.S.
and periodic U.S. airstrikes have targeted suspected Islamic
stated policy goals have remained broadly consistent across
State and Al Qaeda fighters there.
Administrations: deter interstate conflict, counter terrorism,
Syria. Analysts estimate that the Syria conflict, which
ensure the global flow of energy resources, and preserve
began in 2011, has killed up to 593,000 people as of late
U.S. influence in the face of rival power competition.
2020 and displaced half of Syria’s pre-war population. As
of 2021, five countries operate in or maintain military
The 116th Congress shaped U.S. policy in the Middle East
forces in Syria: Russia, Turkey, Iran, Israel, and the United
through various legislative tools. Congress appropriated
States. U.S. goals in Syria have included reaching a
funds for issues Members deemed a priority—such as
political settlement to the conflict, ensuring the enduring
stabilization efforts in Syria. Some Members sought to
defeat of the Islamic State, and securing the withdrawal of
place conditions on U.S. foreign aid and/or block arms sales
all Iranian-commanded forces. Ongoing challenges for
to express concern with particular developments—such as
policymakers include countering extremist groups linked to
Saudi use of U.S. military equipment to target civilians in
Al Qaeda, responding to the threat posed by IS remnants
Yemen. The 116th Congress maintained and expanded
and detainees, facilitating humanitarian aid to 6.6 million
sanctions—such as those in place against Iran—in an effort
internally displaced persons and 5.5 million refugees,
to change state behavior. Congress also continued to shape
reducing clashes between Turkish-supported opposition
the U.S. military footprint in the region through its annual
forces and U.S.-backed Kurdish allies, managing Russian
defense authorization and appropriation measures.
and Iranian challenges to U.S. military operations, and
Conflicts and Humanitarian Crises
implementing sanctions on the Syrian government while
minimizing the impact of those measures on civilians.
Violent civil conflict in several Middle East states have
posed a threat to U.S. national security interests and created
Lebanon. Counterterrorism remains a key U.S. priority in
massive humanitarian needs and population displacements.
Lebanon, where Hezbollah—with Iranian support—
operates freely as a militia force as well as a political party.
Yemen. The region’s most impoverished state, Yemen
U.S. policy has focused on countering Iran and Hezbollah
faces an ongoing insurgency by an Iran-backed movement
by strengthening the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), an
known as the Houthis, which controls most of northern
approach questioned by some Members who judge that the
Yemen and the capital San’a—from which it has launched
LAF is vulnerable to Hezbollah influence. The U.N. Interim
attacks against Saudi Arabia. A Saudi-led military
Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) continues to patrol Lebanon’s
campaign against the Houthis—which relies in part on a
blockade of the country’s major port—
informal border with Israel and to monitor compliance with
has constrained the
U.N. resolutions calling for the area to remain free of armed
provision of food and medical supplies to civilians, and,
personnel; the United States has called on UNIFIL to more
along with Houthi actions, helped create what U.N. officials
aggressively investigate and counter Hezbollah activities
describe as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Al Qaeda
along the border. However, Lebanon may prioritize social
in the Arabian Peninsula, which has attempted to direct
and economic issues over concerns with Hezbollah: as of
attacks in the United States, operates in parts of
2021 the country hosts more refugees per capita than any
southeastern Yemen, while Iranian maritime operations off
other country in the world; it also faces simultaneous debt,
the Yemeni coast near the Bab al Mandab strait have
fiscal, banking, and currency crises that have doubled
threatened vital international shipping lanes.
poverty rates over the past year.
Libya. Since an armed uprising ended the 42-year rule of
Muammar al Qadhafi in 2011, interim authorities have
Containing Iran
proved unable to form a stable government and local armed
Countering Iran’s nuclear ambitions has been a consistent
groups have competed for influence and resources. The
U.S. goal in the region, although recent Administrations
United States is supporting U.N.-led efforts to sustain a
have pursued it in different ways. In 2018, asserting that the
ceasefire agreement reached in October 2020 between the
2015 multilateral Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
U.S.-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA)
(JCPOA or Iran nuclear deal) did not address the broad
and supporters of the Libyan National Army (LNA)
range of Iran’s objectionable behavior and that the
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Middle East: Key Issues for the 117th Congress
agreement’s limitations did not justify sanctions relief, the
also have expressed concern about Saudi Arabia’s apparent
Trump Administration announced that the United States
intention to seek to develop a uranium enrichment capacity
would “exit” the JCPOA and instead apply “maximum
as part of its nascent nuclear energy program.
pressure” on Iran’s economy. The United States reactivated
Turkey. Problems with Turkey, a NATO ally, have
as of November 2018 all U.S. sanctions suspended to
intensified over Syria and other regional issues, and are
implement the JCPOA, and also has imposed new,
complicated by the country’s increased authoritarianism
additional sanctions on Iran. Iran has since taken steps
and economic fragility. Turkey’s 2019 acquisition of
exceeding JCPOA-mandated restrictions, including its
Russian S-400 surface-to-air defense systems led the Trump
January 2021 increase in uranium enrichment.
Administration to remove Turkey from the F-35 Joint Strike
Additionally, Iran and its regional proxy militia forces
Fighter program and impose sanctions under the Countering
maintain and arguably have expanded their influence in the
America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).
region, where they have increasingly come into direct
Turkey may face a choice to reduce the impact of sanctions
conflict with U.S. forces and allies. Iran has bolstered the
by forgoing use of the S-400, or turn to alternative defense
Asad government in Syria, and is among the primary
suppliers—including possibly Russia for next-generation
sources of funding for Lebanese Hezbollah—which
fighter aircraft. Existing law precludes the transfer of F-35s
continues to develop its missile stockpile and engage in
to Turkey while it possesses the S-400, and some informal
occasional clashes with Israel. Iran has also provided
congressional holds apply to U.S.-Turkey arms sales.
support to the Houthi movement in Yemen, as well as to
Egypt. Several issues have caused tension in U.S.-Egypt
militias operating in Iraq. Iran’s external operations are
relations in recent years, including Egypt’s continued
carried out by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds
detention of American citizens and the Egyptian military’s
Force (IRGC-QF). In 2020, U.S. forces killed IRGC-QF
possible purchase of Russian Sukhoi Su-35 fighter aircraft,
leader Qasem Soleimani.
a move that could trigger U.S. sanctions under CAATSA.
Israel and the Palestinians
Shifts in U.S. Military Posture
Israel is a close U.S. partner, but presents challenges to U.S.
In 2021, U.S. military forces appear to be in the process of
policy on some issues. Through aid, arms sales, and other
winding down long-term military campaigns in Afghanistan
means, U.S. officials consistently support Israel’s
and Iraq, but significant U.S. military forces remain in the
qualitative military edge (QME) while seeking to prevent
Middle East to protect partners, deter Iran, and pursue
large-scale regional conflict. Israeli military or covert
terrorist threats. U.S. military forces operate from host
operations to counter Iran-related threats, including from
nation military bases across the region, including those in
Syria and Lebanese Hezbollah, could affect U.S. objectives.
Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, Jordan, and Turkey.
The Trump Administration largely favored Israeli positions
vis-à-vis the Palestinians, including by recognizing Israeli
Afghanistan. U.S. forces were deployed to Afghanistan
sovereignty in Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, and
following the attacks of September 11, 2001, and have
cutting aid for the Palestinians. In 2020, the Administration
since conducted counterterrorism operations and provided
pivoted away from potential support for Israeli annexation
training and support to Afghan forces against the Taliban.
in the West Bank to help Israel begin normalizing relations
As part of a February 2020 U.S.-Taliban agreement, the
with some Arab states—the United Arab Emirates (UAE),
United States agreed to withdraw U.S. and international
Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco—due in part to broadly
forces from Afghanistan by late April 2021. In turn, the
shared concerns over Iran. The incoming Biden
Taliban agreed to prevent groups such as Al Qaeda from
Administration appears inclined to support further Arab-
using Afghan soil to threaten the United States or its allies.
Israeli normalization, including possibly with Saudi Arabia,
The Afghan government and the Taliban formally began
but may review related arms sales. U.S. officials may seek
talks in September 2020, but it is unclear whether these will
to repair U.S.-Palestinian ties—including some restoration
ultimately lead to a settlement to end the war. It is also
of aid— and reverse some Trump-era moves toward
unclear what, if any, role the United States will play in
legitimizing Israeli West Bank settlements.
future nation-building efforts. Some analysts have warned
that a U.S. withdrawal could lead to the collapse of the
Regional Allies Present Challenges
Afghan government, or to the reestablishment of Taliban
Saudi Arabia. Robust counterterrorism cooperation with
control over parts or all of the country.
Saudi Arabia has not fully offset U.S. concerns regarding
the country’s military operations and human rights record.
Iraq. Amid attacks on U.S. facilities and personnel in Iraq
Since 2015, a coalition led by Saudi Arabia has conducted a
by Iran-backed militias, U.S. officials in 2020 announced
military campaign against Houthi forces in Yemen that
that the United States would reduce its military presence in
seized power from Yemen’s recognized government. Non-
Iraq based on an assessment that Iraqi security forces are
governmental observers estimate that operations by the
capable of independent operations against IS remnants. U.S.
Saudi-led coalition have resulted in the deaths of thousands
forces returned to Iraq in 2014 following a previous
of Yemeni civilians, and Saudi and Emirati operations in
withdrawal in 2011, to assist Iraqi forces in combatting the
Yemen remain controversial in Congress due to their use of
Islamic State. Iran-backed militias and politicians call for
U.S. military equipment. Some Members also have
U.S. withdrawal and exercise significant political influence
expressed concern about human rights issues including: the
in Iraq, which plans to hold national elections in June 2021.
2018 killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi
Carla E. Humud, Analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs
government officials, and the imprisonment of reform
advocates, women activists, and others. Some Members
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Middle East: Key Issues for the 117th Congress

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