Air Force Next-Generation Air Dominance Program

Air Force Next-Generation Air Dominance Program

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Updated June 23, 2022
Air Force Next-Generation Air Dominance Program
According to the Air Force, the Next-Generation Air
kinetically, trying to outturn another plane—or that sensors
Dominance (NGAD) program is intended to develop “a
and weapons have to be on the same aircraft.
portfolio of technologies enabling air superiority” (Figure
1). The Air Force intends for NGAD to replace the F-22
NGAD Development Efforts
fighter jet beginning in 2030, possibly including a
The Air Force has said that NGAD exists to develop four
combination of crewed and uncrewed aircraft, with other
publicly acknowledged technologies.
systems and sensors. NGAD began as a Defense Advanced
 Propulsion. Over the past few years, the Air Force has
Research Projects Agency project. Since 2015, Congress
invested substantially in variable cycle engines
has appropriated approximately $4.2 billion for NGAD.
through the Advanced Engine Technology program.
One objective for this program is to improve the
Figure 1. Artist Rendition of NGAD
amount of electrical power generation while
improving cooling.
 Uncrewed systems. Secretary Kendall has stated the
Air Force is developing uncrewed aircraft
complementing NGAD. While the Service has not
stated how it intends to use these uncrewed aircraft,
some analysts suggest these aircraft could collect
intelligence, provide electronic warfare capabilities, or

Source: https://www.airforcemag.com/article/piecing-together-the-
carry additional munitions.
ngad-puzzle/
 Materials. The NGAD program seeks to examine new
NGAD is a classified aircraft development program, but the
composite materials and structures. FY2023 Air Force
Air Force has released a few details. On September 15,
budget materials state it seeks to “continue new low
2020, then-U.S. Air Force acquisition executive Dr. Will
cost design and manufacturing structural concepts for
Roper announced that the Air Force had flown a full-scale
attritable vehicles,” implying that these new materials
flight demonstrator as part of the NGAD program.
could be used for uncrewed aircraft.
Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall announced on
 Sensors. This development effort likely seeks to
June 1, 2022 that NGAD program technologies have
develop an advanced radar, infrared sensors, and
matured enough to allow the program to move to the
improved electro-optical cameras.
engineering, manufacture, and design phase of
development.
What Companies Are Involved?
The Air Force has not mentioned specific NGAD
Is the Goal of NGAD a New Fighter?
contractors. The defense press and large defense prime
While a stated aim of the NGAD program is to replace the
contractors have hinted at their respective roles with the
F-22 fighter jet, the aircraft that come out of the NGAD
NGAD program. Lockheed Martin’s Chief Executive
program may or may not look like a traditional fighter. The
Officer (CEO), Jim Taiclet, and Northrop Grumman’s
Air Force is developing technologies involved in NGAD to
CEO, Kathy Warden, have both highlighted their current
provide air dominance. Part of the program’s goal is to
efforts during earnings calls. Lockheed Martin, in
determine how to achieve that end, independent of
particular, has highlighted its role in developing manned
traditional U.S. military approaches to air dominance.
and unmanned teaming as a significant effort within
NGAD could take the form of a single aircraft and/or a
NGAD. Textron also has demonstrated a capability to
number of complementary systems—manned, unmanned,
quickly design and produce an aircraft with its Scorpion
optionally manned, cyber, electronic—forms that would not
trainer/light attack jet, and General Atomics has shown a
resemble the traditional “fighter.”
series of increasingly sophisticated designs with capacity
for low-rate serial production.
For example, a larger aircraft the size of a B-21 may not
maneuver like a fighter. But that large an aircraft carrying a
Budget and Unit Cost
directed energy weapon, with multiple engines making
The Air Force requested $1.66 billion on NGAD for
substantial electrical power for that weapon, could ensure
FY2023, and projects spending an additional $11.7 billion
that no enemy flies in a large amount of airspace. That
between FY2024 and FY2027. This would represent a three
would achieve air dominance. There appears to be little
times increase in funding compared to what was
reason to assume that NGAD is going to yield a plane the
appropriated from FY2015 through FY2022 (see Figure 2).
size that one person sits in, and that goes out and dogfights
Secretary Kendall stated at the House Armed Services
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Air Force Next-Generation Air Dominance Program
Committee’s FY2022 Air Force Posture hearing that
Even if the flight demonstrator were a fully production-
NGAD would cost “multiple hundreds of millions” of
ready aircraft, it could still take industry several years to
dollars per aircraft.
create production facilities. Producing aircraft requires
complex manufacturing tooling and techniques. In addition,
Figure 2. NGAD Research, Development, Test, and
manufactures need to certify secondary suppliers. The Air
Evaluation Funding FY2015-FY2027
Force has sought to reduce the amount of time required to
produce new aircraft; it is unclear if these aircraft
manufactures would be able to quickly shift production
between multiple types of aircraft.
The F-35 is a program of record, with funding projected for
the next five years at least. The Air Force has not changed
its ultimate goal of 1,763 F-35s. No acquisition goal or fleet
size has been posited for NGAD. Also, the air dominance
role NGAD is intended for is more in line with the current
mission of the F-22 or F-15EX than F-35.
That said, these programs would all have to fit within an
Air Force topline budget, which could lead to pressures to
Source: Derived from Air Force FY2015-FY2023 RDT&E Budget
favor one program over another in funding decisions. For
Justifications
example, Secretary Kendall stated that the Air Force chose
Note: The dashed line represents the Air Force’s planned funding for
to defer some F-35 procurement in FY2023 to expedite
FY2024-FY2027
NGAD development.
What Else Is Important About NGAD?
Potential Issues for Congress
The NGAD program also is part of the Air Force’s attempt
As DOD continues to develop NGAD, there are several
to redesign its acquisition process. Dr. Roper stated that one
potential issues that may concern Congress: costs
goal is to split design, production, and sustainment
associated with NGAD, NGADs impact on the fighter
contracts. Thus the company that wins the design contract
inventory, and the amount of information that the Air Force
might be different from the company receiving the
has released publicly.
production contract, and a third company could win the
sustainment contract to support the aircraft in the field.
 Secretary Kendall has stated that NGAD will cost
“several hundreds of millions” per aircraft. By
That vision could result in firms specializing in design
comparison the F-22 Raptor had an average per unit cost
passing their designs to high-tech manufacturing centers
of $191.6 million which resulted in a procurement of
capable of producing anything sent to them in digital form,
183 aircraft. Some Members have expressed concern
rather than maintaining dedicated airplane factories.
about the cost of NGAD, particularly in light of
Furthermore, companies like Boeing, with global logistics
competing Air Force priorities including nuclear
chains, could take on the sustainment mission. This
modernization, F-35 procurement, and aerial refueling
reallocation of roles could open Air Force programs to
tanker recapitalization.
firms that are not traditional military aviation prime

contractors.
Some Members have expressed concern that this
program may result in an Air Force fighter gap as a
Such a concept complements another Air Force goal, to
result of the aforementioned cost of NGAD.
move from long, single aircraft producing programs to short
Historically, programs that have had significant
runs of different aircraft, theoretically made possible and
developmental cost growth, like the F-22 Raptor and the
economical by flexible production lines. This might lower
B-2 Spirit, have seen the number of aircraft reduced.
sustainment costs because aircraft would be replaced by
 The NGAD program is being developed as a classified
newer designs rather than being kept in service for long
program. Some Members have expressed concern that
periods. This effort is often called the “digital Century
developing a major classified program, like NGAD,
series,” referring to simultaneous Air Force development
risks increased costs and development issues due to
programs of the 1950s and 60s.
limited oversight by organizations like the DOD
Inspector General and the Government Accountability
Does NGAD Compete with F-35?
Office.
For the next few years, the Air Force aims for NGAD to be
This In Focus was originally authored by Jeremiah Gertler,
a research effort, with plans to acquire production aircraft
former CRS Specialist in Military Aviation
or other systems beginning around 2030. Congress
authorizes and appropriates research and development
John R. Hoehn, Analyst in Military Capabilities and
funds and production funds in separate budget lines. F-35 is
Programs
funded largely through procurement, while NGAD is
funded through research and development.
IF11659
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Air Force Next-Generation Air Dominance Program

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