New Census Bureau Products Track COVID-19’s Effects

New Census Bureau Products Track COVID-19’s Effects

Updated December 28, 2020
New Census Bureau Products Track COVID-19’s Effects
Introduction
expects these releases to continue biweekly through January
In May 2020, the U.S. Census Bureau released its first
6, 2021.
findings from the new Household Pulse and Small Business
Pulse Surveys, both now in Phase 3. These experimental
Sample Design and Methods
products are designed to track the effects of the novel
The survey draws on a systematic sample of housing units
coronavirus disease—first observed in Wuhan, China, in
from the Census Bureau’s Master Address File,
2019 (COVID-19) and declared a pandemic by the World
supplemented by email addresses and mobile telephone
Health Organization in March 2020. The bureau defines
numbers from the bureau’s Contact Frame. The initial
such products as those “using new data sources or
Phase 1 sample, according to the bureau, was divided into
methodologies that benefit data users in the absence of
three panels, and each was interviewed up to three times. In
other relevant products.” Long before COVID-19 struck,
successive weeks, the bureau replaced one panel with
the federal statistical system produced data that could gauge
another to avoid overburdening respondents. The sample
changes in mortality, health status, food supplies,
included four panels in the second and third weeks and
unemployment, and business conditions, among other
three subsequently. Phase 2 involved the selection of
important variables. Not previously available, however,
independent panels for successive data collection periods,
were the kind of data now provided by the pulse surveys,
and respondents were interviewed once. Phase 3 uses the
which are not only detailed but also being disseminated in
same design and methods as Phase 2.
almost real time to help policymakers respond to the
pandemic and plan for recovery.
Advantages and Limitations
The Census Bureau has noted that efforts are underway to
Household Pulse Survey
introduce new questions about COVID-19 into the
The Household Pulse Survey questionnaire is the product of
statistical agencies’ benchmark surveys. Producing these
collaboration among some of the major agencies in the
surveys, however, is “a highly deliberative process,” so data
federal statistical system, led by the Census Bureau
on the pandemic might not be available for months or years.
(Department of Commerce), which is conducting the survey
The Household Pulse Survey, in contrast, has a short
and presenting the results. The other collaborators are the
turnaround time. Although response rates may be lower
Economic Research Service (Department of Agriculture),
than in the bureau’s traditional surveys, the pulse survey’s
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS, Department of Labor),
benefits include, in the bureau’s words, “implementation
Bureau of Transportation Statistics (Department of
efficiency, cost, and timeliness of responses.”
Transportation), National Center for Health Statistics
(Department of Health and Human Services), National
Because, as the bureau has explained, “experimental data
Center for Education Statistics (Department of Education),
may not meet all” of its quality standards, it clearly
Department of Housing and Urban Development, and
identifies the pulse survey data, provides technical
Social Security Administration. Phase 1 topics covered
documentation, includes a “Source and Accuracy
were individuals’ “employment status, spending patterns,
Statement” with each release, and invites user feedback
food security, housing, physical and mental health, access
about data quality and usefulness. (See, for example,
to health care, and educational disruption.” Phase 2 asked
https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/household-
additional questions, including those about application for
pulse-survey/technical-documentation.html.)
and receipt of benefits, “mental health services,” evictions
and foreclosures, “availability of financial resources,”
Illustrative Findings: November 25 to December 7,
postsecondary educational disruptions, “capacity to
2020
telework, and travel practices.” The Phase 3 questionnaire
This period, highlighted below at the national level, was
is unchanged from Phase 2. Phase 3 responses are made
one when children could have had to meet school
online and are voluntary, as they were in Phases 1 and 2.
requirements from home and adults could have had to teach
or help teach them. Adults, with or without children, could
Level of Geography and Frequency
have faced multiple other challenges, which the survey
The Census Bureau is producing statistics from the survey
results indicate.
for the 50 states, the District of Columbia (DC), and the 15
most populous metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs).
Time devoted to learning activities. Of households with
children enrolled in public or private schools, 49.9%
Data collection for Phase 1 began on April 23, 2020, and
reported that the children spent “much less” or “a little less”
ended on July 21. Phase 2 began on August 19, and results
time on all learning activities in the past week (that is, the
were released biweekly through November 4. The first data
week before the survey) than before the pandemic.
were released from Phase 3 on November 18; the bureau
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New Census Bureau Products Track COVID-19’s Effects
Loss of employment income. Households with children
other financial vehicles, religious grant operations and
under age 18 were more likely than childless households
organizations, private households, public administration,
(55.3% versus 43.3%) to report loss of employment income
and unclassified entities.
since March 13, 2020.
Sample Design and Methods
Food. Whereas 17.1% of households reported that, before
The survey’s target population is all nonfarm, single-
March 13, their households had enough food, but not
location businesses with fewer than 500 employees and
always the types of food wanted, 24.8% of households
annual receipts of at least $1,000 in the 50 states, DC, and
reported this situation for the past seven days. The
Puerto Rico. Businesses eligible to participate in the survey
proportions who responded that, before March 13, the
are those that responded to the 2017 Economic Census. The
household sometimes or often did not have enough to eat
sample had about 940,500 businesses in the first week and
were 6.6% and 2.0% respectively, compared with 8.4% and
has had about 885,000 since then, after email addresses
2.6%, respectively, over the past week. Of households with
linked to multiple businesses were removed. As the Census
children under age 18, 8.6% reported sometimes not having
Bureau explained, the sample in all phases of the survey has
enough food for their households before March 13; 2.9%
been divided into nine panels to reduce respondent burden.
reported often not having enough food. These households
Advantages and Limitations
acknowledged that they sometimes (10.9%) or often (3.9%)
A key advantage of the survey, as of its household
lacked enough food in the past seven days. Unemployed
counterpart, is that it provides frequent, detailed
respondents living with children reported sometimes
information on the topics covered.
(15.8%) or often (6.2%) having insufficient food for their
households in the last week.
The Census Bureau has pointed out that although the
sample for the pulse survey is not a probability sample,
Mental Health. Over half of respondents (53.4%) reported
“weights were applied to ensure that each weekly panel
“feeling nervous, anxious, or on edge”; 45.8% reported
represented the full population.”
“having little interest or pleasure in doing things”; and
43.7% acknowledged “feeling down, depressed, or
The survey’s definition of “small business” may differ from
hopeless” for “several days,” “more than half the days,” or
the definition(s) used by other organizations or federal
“nearly every day” during the past week.
agencies.
Housing. Of homeowners with mortgages, 10.1% reported
Nonresponse bias could affect the survey; businesses closed
not being up to date with their mortgage payments, while
due to the pandemic might not respond because they have
not received the bureau’s request to do so. Also, the survey
19.5% of renters had missed rent payments. As for
confidence that they could make the next month’s payment,
estimates could be biased if businesses participating in the
5.1% of owners with mortgages and 13.2% of renters
survey differ systematically from nonparticipants.
expressed “no confidence”; the respective proportions rose
Illustrative Findings: December 7 to December 13,
to 8.7% and 19.6% among those not currently employed.
2020
Small Business Pulse Survey
In response to the survey question, “Overall, how has this
business been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic?”, a
Agencies collaborating on the Small Business Pulse Survey
national average of 30.7% of businesses reported a “large
include, among others, the Small Business Administration;
negative effect.” More than one-third (38.5%) reported
Minority Business Development Administration and
decreased “revenues/sales/receipts” in the past week
Bureau of Economic Analysis, both in the Department of
(referring to the week before businesses answered the
Commerce; and BLS.
survey); 5.1% reported temporary or permanent closings;
12.6% answered that they had fewer paid employees; and
As in Phases 1 and 2, the Phase 3 questionnaire asks about
21.3% reported that the paid employees worked fewer
altered conditions facing small businesses during the
hours. Disruptions in obtaining supplies were noted by
pandemic, including effects on “operating revenues and
51.6% of businesses. Almost three-quarters (73.8%)
availability of cash; closures; changes in the number of paid
acknowledged requesting assistance from the Paycheck
employees or hours; the re-hiring of laid-off or furloughed
Protection Program (see CRS Report R46284, COVID-19
employees; disruption of supply chains; adoption of
Relief Assistance to Small Businesses: Issues and Policy
different business practices; changes in operating capacity;
Options) since March 13, 2020, and 72.7% reported
missed loan and other payments; requests [for]/ receipt [of]
receiving assistance from this source since March 13.
financial assistance; and overall well-being and outlook for
Responding to the question “how much
recovery.” Responses, like those for the Household Pulse
time do you think
will pass before this business returns to its normal level of
Survey, continue to be online and voluntary in Phase 3.
operations relative to one year ago?”, 45.9% answered
“more than six months,” while 9.1% did not think the
Level of Geography and Frequency
business would return to its normal level of operations or
The Census Bureau is releasing Phase 3 survey results
reported it permanently closed.
weekly through January 14, 2021, by state and North
American Industry Classification System (NAICS) sector
Jennifer D. Williams, Specialist in American National
and for the 50 most populous MSAs. Considered out of
scope for the survey are agricultural production, railroads,
Government
the U.S. Postal Service, monetary authorities, funds and
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New Census Bureau Products Track COVID-19’s Effects

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